Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Christopher Smith
13 October 2010
1. Introduction
not be underestimated, one weakness of such studies is that they often lack realistic policy
implications. For this reason, the International Relations literature has typically focused on state-
public policy. Of particular importance are a number of empirical studies have attempted to
assess the statistical significance of various variables as predictors of intra-state conflict. The
present paper tabulates and summarizes those empirical findings, then examines some of their
possible policy implications. Among other things, the findings presented here suggest that states
can enhance internal stability by promoting a pluralistic ideology, centralizing and strengthening
2. Methodological Considerations
The studies examined here fortunately use only two broad specifications of civil war,
summarized by Hegre and Sambanis (523): “[Civil war] must have caused 1,000 deaths in total
and in at least a three year period. . . . The Uppsala/PRIO [internal armed conflict] data set has an
annual twenty five battle deaths threshold and therefore is not limited to civil war.” In both cases,
one of the actors in the conflict must be the government. Table 1 shows which variables the
various studies found to be significant predictors of civil war, and Table 2 shows which variables
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the studies found to be significant predictors of internal armed conflict (IAC). We might think of
these as the results for “large-scale” and “small-scale” conflicts, respectively, though of course
As for the specific variables listed in Tables 1 and 2, the various studies operationalized
them in a variety of different ways. I have taken some liberties in Tables 1 and 2 in terms of
relabeling variables in order to clarify what was measured and to provide cross-study
comparability. The studies also used a wide variety of model specifications and thresholds for
and correlation coefficients) often were not comparable across studies, so Tables 1 and 2 report
significance or non-significance as a dichotomous value for each study. A few studies used
multiple specifications, and there were variables that were significant in some specifications but
not in others. Usually I have chosen to interpret such results conservatively, and to code as
“significant” only those variables whose significance was fairly robust against specification
changes.
Finally, one should keep in mind when examining Tables 1 and 2 that not all the reported
results are of the same theoretical caliber. The study by Hegre and Sambanis is important, though
they may have set their threshold for significance too low. The studies by Benson and Kugler
and Østby are suggestive, but include too few variables to be fully definitive. The study by
Montalvo and Reynal-Querol suffers from deficient specification, as explained by Schneider and
Weisehomeier (5-7). Among the better-specified studies are those by Fearon and Laitin and
Collier and Hoeffler, though even these were insufficiently sophisticated in their
operationalization of ethnic and religious variables. Several of these variables exhibit a high
degree of endogeneity, such that including them together in the same regression model tends to
Most studies have not found ethnic or religious fractionalization variables to have a
significant effect on civil war. In part this may be because fractionalization, dominance, and
polarization variables are somewhat endogenous, so including them in the same model causes
one or more of them to lose significance (Schneider and Weisehomeier 5). Collier and Hoeffler
also include their ethnic and religious fractionalization variables in the same model as a “social”
fractionalization variable that combines the two. Under such circumstances it is hardly surprising
that the disaggregated variables fall out of the analysis (11-13). Another problem is the way that
religions have been categorized. All “Christians” and all “Muslims” are lumped together, for
example (Schneider and Weisehomeier 5-7). Yet history suggests that the most salient religious
divisions are often between sectarian groups within a single tradition, such as Shia and Sunni or
Protestants and Catholics (Wuthnow xv). The American Civil War, for example, has recently
been interpreted as a religious war between pro- and anti-slavery Protestants (Noll 43-46)—a
religious division that would not show up in the typical indices of religious fractionalization and
polarization. It may be that similar groups are perceived as a greater threat than more alien ones
because similar groups are more attractive to defectors from one’s own group.
To the extent that fractionalization is significant, it turns out to be a restraint rather than a
stimulant to war (Collier and Hoeffler 13; Fearon and Laitin 20). This is somewhat surprising to
Fearon and Laitin, who had predicted that fractionalization would increase the probability of war
(9). Collier and Hoeffler explain that rebel groups may be able to operate more effectively under
conditions of social cohesion (13). An alternative explanation is that fractionalization proxies for
the presence of a pluralistic ideology. Not only are pluralistic societies more likely to have an
open immigration policy, leading to greater fractionalization, but fractionalization itself may tend
to reinforce such a tolerant ideology. In a highly fractionalized society, people are not only more
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likely to have their negative stereotypes of other groups challenged by direct personal encounter
(Wuthnow xvi), but they are also more likely to have to learn to cooperate with other groups in
Even less significant than fractionaliztion for civil war onset is ethnic or religious
polarization. (While polarization is not significant for onset, it does tend to increase duration. cf.
Schneider and Weisehomeier 13-14; Esteban and Ray 164-65). This may be because civil wars
occur only in newly-polarized countries—countries that have recently become polarized through
Protestant influx into the Catholic Netherlands resulted in an eighty-year war for political
dominance over the country. When it became clear that neither group would be able to achieve
hegemony, they developed a pluralistic ideology and power-sharing strategy that prevented
further conflict outbreaks (Lindberg 308). Thus polarized societies may undergo an initial period
of prolonged warfare followed by a permanent, stable, pluralistic peace. Future studies should
look specifically at polarization that has resulted from rapid changes in relative group size. It
would also be useful to interact polarization with regional separation, since both the US Civil
War and the recent Sudan conflict occurred between religious groups that were regionally
separated.
one large majority ethnic group and one substantial minority ethnic group—proves to be a highly
significant stimulant to war (Collier and Hoeffler 13; Hegre and Sambanis 526). Ethnic
fragmentation, because the dominant group can form an effective governing coalition without
including other groups. The Rwandan and Sudanese genocides were both carried out by majority
ethnic groups against sizable minorities. Since the Rwandan genocide was partly motivated by
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the majority group’s resentment of the greater wealth and power of the minority group
stratification. In this vein, Østby finds that educational differences falling along specifically
The results for IAC are somewhat different from the results for civil war. Whereas
fractionalization is a mild restraint to civil war, it is a stimulant to IAC (Hegre and Sambanis,
528). Probably this is because a variety of radical ethnic groups exist on the fringes of
fractionalized societies, where they remain relatively isolated from pluralism but can still
dominance and polarization lose statistical significance for IAC (Hegre and Sambanis, 528).
It is also worth noting in passing that Fearon and Laitin found that Islam had no
statistically significant effect on civil war when controlling for other variables (25). Islam could
still be causing civil war indirectly, by influencing political, economic, or demographic variables,
The findings for ethnic and religious variables are not fully conclusive, and bear further
study. They do, however, raise a few policy possibilities for increasing long-term intrastate
since these seem to promote ethnic conflict. Secondly, a permissive immigration policy might
reduce the probability of civil war. On the other hand, it would increase the probability of IAC.
In formulating immigration policies, countries will have to weigh the risks of fractionalization
against the potential benefits. In the meantime, a safer policy might be for government to
actively promote a pluralistic ideology. Rather than increasing the number of immigrants coming
into the country, this could be accomplished by increasing the visibility of the minority groups
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already present: sponsoring positive media coverage of these groups and integrating them more
Some of the strongest predictors of civil war are political and economic. In the political
realm, the best predictors seem to be weak government and intermediate regime type. In the
economic realm, high GDP, growth, and development all serve as restraints to war.
Strong governments are typified by high centralization, high resource extraction from the
sustaining extensive military forces. Not surprisingly, centralization, militarization, and political
extraction all turn out to be statistically significant restraints to civil conflict (Hegre and
Sambanis 526, 28; Benson and Kugler 204-05). Strong governments are better able to avert
conflict before it begins. Similarly, new states and states that have undergone recent instability or
regime changes are considerably more prone to civil war (Hegre, Ellingsen, Gates, and Gleditsch
38; Fearon and Laitin 24; Hegre and Sambanis 526). This is probably because the governments
of such states have not had time to consolidate control of their countries.
Even weak states, of course, can be stabilized to some degree by the availability of
foreign military intervention. Before the fall of the Soviet Union, for example, the Warsaw Pact
nations experienced no civil war. French colonies experienced similar stability prior to the
decolonization period (Fearon and Laitin 26-27). This effect is somewhat offset, however, by a
“spillover” effect from instability in neighboring countries. States in generally unstable regions
such as the Middle East and North Africa are generally more war-prone than states in Western
Europe and the United States, even when controlling for other variables (Hegre and Sambanis
526, 32).
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As for regime type, various measures indicate that the most stable regimes are extreme
democracies and autocracies, whereas intermediate regimes such as semi-democracies are much
more prone to civil war (Hegre, Ellingsen, Gates, and Gleditsch). Intermediate regimes may be
those that employ just enough coercion to create resentment, but not enough to effectively crush
political opposition. By contrast, extreme autocracies successfully control their populations, and
extreme democracies avoid creating resentment and provide peaceful outlets for political protest.
All well-specified studies agree that democracies are not significantly more stable than
autocracies when controlling for other variables. Democracy may act as an indirect restraint to
civil war by promoting economic prosperity, but it has no direct effect. Certain variables related
government—are more stable than less inclusive majoritarian governments such as presidential
systems (446). This conflicts with Hegre and Sambanis’s finding that presidential systems are a
restraint to war (526), but the Hegre and Sambanis finding frankly seems anomalous. They cite
Przeworski, et al. as the source of their data for this variable, but Przeworski, et al. come to
precisely the oppositie conclusion: that parliamentary systems are much more stable than
presidential ones (134-35). Another variable that merits further study is regulation of
participation. In this context, regulation of participation means that a state has stable and
recognized political parties, with binding rules on how, when, and whether diversity of opinion
may be expressed. Unregulated participation is more subject to change over time, and has fewer
barriers to coercive strategies (“Codebook” 34). According to Hegre and Sambanis, regulation of
Economic variables are also very important. High GDP per-capita, rapid GDP growth,
and high levels of industrial development and male secondary education all seem to be
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significant restraints to civil conflict (Collier and Hoeffler 16; Hegre and Sambanis 526, 28;
Fearon and Laitin 20). One plausible interpretation of this finding, from a rational-choice
perspective, is that a combatant who dies in war during a time of prosperity loses more—has a
higher “foregone income”—than one who dies during an economic depression (Collier and
Hoeffler 16). Another possible interpretation is that these economic variables proxy for strong
government or for other conditions conducive to stability (Fearon and Laitin 3).
One economic variable that seems to act as a stimulant to war is the export of oil as a
primary commodity. Collier and Hoeffler suggest that oil exports provide an opportunity for
rebel groups to fund themselves through extortion (16), but a more likely explanation is Fearon
and Laitin’s suggestion that oil marks “relative state weakness at a given level of income” (29).
Fearon and Laitin do not, however, reject the possibility that availability of rebel funding might
predict civil war. They merely suggest that “A better measure for financing potential would focus
on the presence of minerals or contrabands that can reward control of a small enclave with huge
profits” (29-30). No such variable has yet been tested, but it is a promising suggestion. The
Taliban in Afghanistan, for example, are said to be financed partly through illicit trade in opium
(Schmitt). If the presence of illicit cash crops turns out to be significant, then legalization of the
trade in these crops might offer a route to stability. (Admittedly, legalization might need to occur
Other policy implications of this analysis would seem to be fairly straightforward. The
best recipe for long-term state stability would seem to be to strengthen and centralize
participation, and stimulate economic growth. In light of this evidence, it seems that by creating
economically weakened semi-democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has only
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created the conditions for civil conflict in these countries. Their governments are likely to
5. Other Variables
Besides the variables already discussed, a few other significant ones are population,
population dispersion, and the presence of mountains. One of the most consistent predictors of
civil war is population. Population has a more or less monotonic relationship with civil war,
probably simply because every additional person in a state is an additional potential rebel. A
higher population means more opportunities for rebellion (Fearon and Laitin 39; Collier and
Hoeffler 13; Hegre and Sambanis 526; Schneider and Weisehomeier 21-23). Also quite
significant is the influence of population dispersion. Collier and Hoeffler find that a highly
dispersed population is a stimulant to war, perhaps because rebels can hide in remote rural
regions of the country and gather sufficient strength to challenge government forces (5, 26).
Mountainous terrain may also provide hiding places for rebels, though the evidence for its
significance is somewhat mixed (Fearon and Laitin 39, Hegre and Sambanis 526, Collier and
Hoeffler 25, Schneider and Weisehomeier 21-23). Perhaps the partial colinearity of these two
variables accounts for the weakness of the statistical significance of the latter.
In terms of policy, these findings would seem to argue for the favorability of population
controls and non-imperialistic diplomacy. By taking measures to reduce birth rates, states can
eliminate the added risk that comes with population growth. Similarly, territorial expansion
through imperialistic foreign policy increases not only the population but also usually the
population dispersion of a state. Attempts to impose military control over a heavily mountainous
civil war points up the folly of Soviet and American military involvement in Afghanistan.
6. Conclusion
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Obviously there is much work still to be done. Besides the suggestions already made
above, it might also be useful to investigate birth rates and immigration rates as possible
causative variables. Further work should also be done on the causes of low-level conflict,
particularly between non-state actors. Even so, the findings of the literature so far have been
highly suggestive and relevant to US policy, especially given the US’s involvement in numerous
statebuilding projects around the world. The findings presented here suggest that the US should
seek to encourage fledgling states to adopt a pluralistic ideology, a strong, centralized model of
The findings described in this paper also suggest that US should be more selective about
which states to assist and which methods to use in rendering that assistance. In some states, for
example, extreme democratization may not be a realistic near-term goal. In other states, military
intervention may do serious damage to the economy (and thus the stability) of a country. A
lasting (and expensive) US military presence may be required to preserve peace in states
destabilized by military intervention. Simple human decency demands that the US militarily
intervene only in states where the conditions for long-term stability can be achieved before
popular American commitment to the project wanes. The US should also consider more
constructive kinds of intervention as well, such as economic stimulus and diplomatic negotiation
government*
Centralization* (Hegre and Sambanis)
Neighborhood political (Hegre and Sambanis)
economy
Region (Hegre and Sambanis) (Fearon and Laitin)
Neighborhood at war (Hegre and Sambanis) (Fearon and Laitin)
GDP growth* (Collier and Hoeffler), (Hegre and
Sambanis)
Economic policy (Fearon and Laitin), (Hegre and Sambanis)
Social welfare (Hegre and Sambanis)
Oil exports (Fearon and Laitin), (Collier and (Hegre and Sambanis)
Hoeffler)
Primary commodity (Collier and Hoeffler) (Fearon and Laitin), (Hegre and Sambanis),
exports (Schneider and Weisehomeier)
Rough Terrain (Fearon and Laitin), (Hegre and (Collier and Hoeffler), (Schneider and
Sambanis) Weisehomeier)
Noncontiguous territory (Fearon and Laitin), (Hegre and Sambanis),
(Schneider and Weisehomeier)
Population density (Collier and Hoeffler), (Hegre and Sambanis)
Population dispersion (Collier and Hoeffler)
Militarization* (Hegre and Sambanis)
Decade (Hegre, Ellingsen, Gates, and (Fearon and Laitin), (Collier and Hoeffler)
Gleditsch), (Hegre and Sambanis)
Colonial war (Hegre and Sambanis)
Male education* (Collier and Hoeffler) (Fearon and Laitin)
Proportion of young (Fearon and Laitin)
males in population
Vertical income (Fearon and Laitin), (Østby), (Collier and
inequality Hoeffler)
Availability of foreign (Fearon and Laitin)
military support*
Diasporas** (Collier and Hoeffler)
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