Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy

ISSN: 1556-7249 (Print) 1556-7257 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/uesb20

Insertion of renewable energy sources into Brazil’s

power mix

Mauricio Dester

To cite this article: Mauricio Dester (2017) Insertion of renewable energy sources into
Brazil’s power mix, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 12:1, 63-69, DOI:
10.1080/15567249.2015.1017670
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2015.1017670

Published online: 28 Dec 2016.

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ENERGY SOURCES, PART B: ECONOMICS, PLANNING, AND POLICY
2017, VOL. 12, NO. 1, 63–69
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2015.1017670

Insertion of renewable energy sources into Brazil’s power mix

Mauricio Dester
Furnas Centrais Eletricas, Department of Power System Operation, Campinas, SP, Brazil

ABSTRACT KEYWORDS
Electricity generation through small hydro power (SHP), wind, biomass, and Base load power plant;
solar sources (WBSS) is a promising alternative, mainly from the sustain- electricity power mix; energy
ability perspective. Considering the increase of SHP and WBSS in Brazil’s policy; intermittent sources
Power System (BPS), which is a strong and inexorable trend, the analysis of energy; strategic planning
about impacts of this increase is absolutely indispensable. Could load of generation expansion
growth be met by using a high percentage of SHP and WBSS in the
power mix? What are the suitable strategies to make SHP and WBSS growth
possible while maintaining load supply reliability? The main goal of this
work to discuss these issues, and others, related to reliability and quality of
BPS load supply regarding the increase of the SHP and WBSS percentage in
the power mix, from a qualitative point of view.

1. Introduction
Seasonality, intermittency, and unpredictability are known problems of small hydro power (SHP)
and wind, biomass, and solar sources (WBSS) which require additional measures in order to
maintain reliability and quality of Brazil’s Power System (BPS) load supply (Kaygusuz, 2007).
There are some solutions which can be used to mitigate these weaknesses and using these energy
sources in concert with other ones is a promising solution. These other sources, due to their
characteristics, can be hydro, thermal, or nuclear, which are very suitable for meeting the load
considering power supply reliability and quality.
Some aspects related to load supply reliability and quality and the impacts caused by a significant
penetration of SHP and WBSS will be analyzed in this paper. Moreover, the following subject matter
will also be discussed: load duration curve, daily load curve, SHP, and WBSS generation profile.
The main goal of this work is to discuss all the issues mentioned above from the strategic
guidelines and energy policy perspective. Furthermore, bases which can support expansion planning
and power system operating will also be proposed, regarding the significant percentage of SHP and
WBSS in the power mix. The final goal is to provide elements which can allow maintaining and even
growing the share of renewable energy sources in Brazil’s power mix considering load supply
reliability and sustainability of the expansion generation process.

2. The load supply

There are basically two ways to analyze load behavior: through the load duration curve and daily
load curve. Moreover, two factors related to these curves can also be analyzed using the curves
themselves: base power generation and daily power generation. The load duration curve must be met
during the entire year. This is the most important requirement of any power grid and represents the
balance between load and generation. This balance must be provided for the generation expansion

CONTACT Mauricio Dester mauriciodester@gmail.com Furnas Centrais Elétricas S.A, Av. Esther Moretzshon Camargo,
1498, Campinas, SP, CEP 13088-851, Brazil.
Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/uesb.
© 2017 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
64 M. DESTER

planning process so that the operation process can accomplish it using the sources available in the
power mix. These sources have to work together to meet load reliably.
Another important issue is load behavior throughout the day, especially load ramps, which are
characterized by a large load variation in a short period of time. The most critical load ramps are those
that occur in the early morning and early evening. An example of a Brazil’s daily load curve has an
early morning ramp of 10 GW and ~30 MW/min and an early evening ramp of 5 GW and ~80 MW/
min (ONS, 2010). The respective power grid generation has to meet these load variations and an
adequate power mix is necessary to accomplish it.
In addition to the daily load ramps, there are also specific ones which require similar measures to
maintain the balance between load and generation. An example of this kind of load ramp is related
to very popular events, like a TV program with a huge audience. Load ramps are observed at the
beginning and end of these events. Brazil’s games in the World Cup are cases when severe load
ramps occur. For instance, during Brazil’s first game in the 2010 World Cup four severe load ramps
occurred, two downward (when the game began and at the start of the second half), and two upward
(at the end of the first half and at the end of the game). The most severe occurred at the end of the
first half (1,273 MW/min).
These load ramps as well as the base load have to match consistently and the balance between
load and generation has to be maintained throughout. This is only possible if sources in the power
mix are capable of responding accordingly to load variations. Sources which can play this role are
those that have enough primary energy source availability at anytime and response capacity to meet
load variations.

3. Power generation from SHPs and WBSSs

3.1. Wind power
Wind is the primary source of wind power and there are two significant behaviors of this natural
resource which have the greatest effect on power quality of this electricity source: intermittency and
low forecasting. Furthermore, wind speed below 3 m/s is not enough to drive wind turbine blades,
especially bigger ones, which are used in wind farms. In Figure 1 the wind speed intermittency can
be observed. Wind speed measurements are from a meteorological station at Petrolina, a city in
Brazil’s Northeast region. The measurement intervals were 1 min and were taken at a height of 10 m.
It is important to mention that in this city the yearly average wind speed is 6 m/s (ANEEL, 2001).
The problem of wind intermittency is more significant in systems with high penetration of this
energy source. An interesting example is the power mix percentage of wind power in Germany,
which was 14% in 2005. Load variations of up to 80% occurred in the part of the power grid under

Figure 1. Wind speed measurements from a meteorological station at Petrolina. Source: INPE/CPTEC, 2015.
 ENERGY SOURCES, PART B: ECONOMICS, PLANNING, AND POLICY 65

the responsibility of E. ON Netz (part of Germany’s power system) and these variations caused
undesirable repercussions on load supply (Boyle, 2007).

3.2. Biomass power

Quality of energy generated from biomass is better than wind and solar power and it cannot be
viewed as an interruptible power source. Sugarcane is the most important kind of biomass used to
generate electricity in Brazil and its availability depends on the sugarcane harvest which has a
seasonable characteristic. Sugarcane biomass is only available between May and November. Backup
power sources have to generate power during the other months in order to maintain load supply
reliability (Pignatti, 2007).
Figure 2 shows the seasonability characteristic of power generation from sugarcane biomass in
Brazil. Lack of generation can be noticed in January, February, and March, while December and
April are considered critical months.

3.3. Solar power

Solar power is one of the most important renewable sources and has to be included in the power mix
of any country. However, like wind power, solar power is intermittent and has low predictability. A
case which exemplifies the intermittency of solar radiation is shown in Figure 3. The chart in this
figure represents solar radiation measurements from a meteorological station in Petrolina, a city in
Brazil’s Northeast region. Interval between two measurements is 1 min. Intermittency is clearly
2
noticed and there is no periodicity of solar radiation intensity, which ranges from 5.9 to 6.3 kWh/m
on a yearly basis average (INPE, 2006). Solar radiation intensity decreases from 5:00 PM and, in this
time, an ascending ramp load starts. This is a disadvantage of solar power and requires special
attention from planners and operators. A similar phenomenon occurs in the early morning. While
ascending ramp load begins typically at around 7:00 AM or even before, solar radiation intensity
starts after 8:00 AM.

3.4. Small hydro power

SHPs are constructed in small rivers, and small watersheds, and therefore these rivers’ output varies
widely. SHPs are run of river power plants, which do not have storage capacity, and generated power
depends directly on the respective river output (Fill et al, 2006).

Figure 2. Monthly production of sugarcane biomass in 2014. Source: UNICA, 2015.

66 M. DESTER

Figure 3. Global solar radiation at the meteorological station in Petrolina. Source: INPE/CPTEC, 2015.

This drawback can be clearly seen in two SHPs constructed in the state of Sao Paulo, located in
Brazil’s Southeast region. These SHPs are in the Paraiba do Sul River whose typical output profile is
shown in Figure 4. The output variability can be noticed during the whole year, but this variance is
greater during months with high rainfall.

4. A solution to facilitate SHP and WBSS insertion into Brazil’s power mix
Distributed generation requires additional actions to mitigate intermittency, unpredictability and
issues related to power systems stability, especially for a high penetration of these sources. In Brazil’s
case, these actions have to address SHP and WBSS drawbacks; thus it will be possible to get the
advantages of these power sources and supply load with reliability.
It is not accurate to compare the technical aspects between SHPs/WBSSs and large hydro power
plants (HPP), likewise about environmental impact, because they are complimentary. Power gen-
eration expansion based just on SHPs and WBSS is impossible, especially over the long term.
From a technical perspective one of the most relevant aspects is that SHPs and WBSS require
backup sources to compensate for their intermittency in order to maintain load supply reliability.
Another aspect is related to power system stability which is linked to existing generators with some
inertia, and this is not the case with SHP and WBSS. HPP and thermal power plants (TPP), single
cycle, based on natural gas, are the best technologies to overcome both of these drawbacks. They
respond rapidly to load changes and have high availability of their primary energy source. TPP based

Figure 4. Average outputs of Paraiba do Sul River in 2014. Source: ANA, 2015.
 ENERGY SOURCES, PART B: ECONOMICS, PLANNING, AND POLICY 67

on coal and oil are suitable to operate as base generation but not when frequent changes on power
generation are needed (Tolmasquim, 2003).
Considering economic dimension, HPPs have the lowest O&M costs, followed by SHPs wind
1
power, biomass, solar power, and TPP (Hollauer, 2007). The break-even price for HPP is US$38.4/
2
MWh (EPE, 2007b) and TPP (natural gas—combined cycle) is US$91.1/MWh (EPE, 2007b) . The
break-even price of single cycle TPP is even higher than combined cycle TPP due to better efficiency
of the latter.
From the environmental viewpoint and regarding external costs, HPPs range is from $1.3 to $13.1
USD/MWh while natural gas TPPs is from $13.1 to $52.4 USD/MWh (EPE, 2007b). HPPs CO2
emission range is from 4 to 36 g/kWh while natural gas TPPs is from 399 to 644 g/kWh (Rondinelli
and Kuramoto, 2008).
Intermittency and unpredictability of SHPs and WBSSs, especially with a high penetration level of
these sources, can be mitigated through HPPs with reservoir upstream (Dester and Bajay, 2014). This
solution allows reaching high penetration levels while maintaining load supply reliability (Navid, 2010).
Other technologies which can mitigate these problems exist, like pumped hydro, mainly for large scale
applications (Mason and Williamson, 2010). However, HPPs’ reservoirs can be used advantageously as
a virtual storage system instead of pumped hydro. Among other benefits, HPPs dispense with the
pumping step and, consequently, their efficiency is higher than pumped hydro plants.

5. The Brazil’s drought in 2013–2015 years

The Brazil’s current drought is one of the stronger, considering the period of available data about
rainfall. This drought has been affecting both HPP with reservoir upstream and reservoirs for the
water supply. Almost all the main reservoirs of Southeast and Northeast Brazil’s regions are very
depleted, below 20% of their nominal capacity. This fact causes drop in efficiency of hydro turbines,
aggravating the problem even more, since, considering these reservoirs’ levels, a larger volume of
water is required to produce the same power, comparing with higher reservoirs’ levels. In order to
preserve the power system reliability, the dispatch of a large number of TPP, mainly those based on
fossil fuel, has been required. This dispatch leads to higher costs of electricity production and higher
level of environmental impact. This problem could have been avoided if some policy measures had
been taken to maintain the construction of new HPP with reservoir upstream. Consecutive govern-
ments did not face the environmental issues related to this kind of energy source and only run of
river HPP have been constructed in the last 20 years. Brazil still has a substantial amount of rivers in
which is possible to deploy HPP with reservoir. If the present and next governments adopt guidelines
and policy measures to resume the deployment of this kind of power source, many problems of
energy reliability and security, like the current one, will be avoided or, at least, minimized.

6. Conclusions
A high level of renewable share in the power mix requires new paradigms and approaches from
policy makers and power systems planners and operators. These sources have some peculiarities
which are quite different from traditional power sources like hydro, thermal, and nuclear. Moreover,
intermittency and unpredictability, drawbacks of these sources, demand changes in all processes
linked to power systems, especially in generation expansion planning and operating (Twidell, 2006).
Establishment of guidelines and policies to control the power mix share is an indispensable
strategic action to ensure that the necessary technical requirements for load supply demands are
adhered to (Doukas et al, 2008). Load supply has to be met by both power and energy viewpoint.
These aspects have to be handled accordingly to avoid rollbacks in quality and reliability of electricity
1
The definition of the break-even price here is the amount enough to pay invested capital and all other O&M costs.
2
Premise adopted: investment cost of $800USD/kW, internal rate of return of 12 %, O&M costs and other taxes.
68 M. DESTER

provision. The goal of these guidelines and policies is not to put obstacles against penetration of
renewable sources, especially SHPs and WBSSs in Brazil’s case, but creating suitable conditions to
allow their growth and complying with quality and reliability requisites.
Intermittency and unpredictability of SHP and WBSS can be mitigated by HPPs due to its reliable
generation. Furthermore, reservoir capacity is relevant to ascertain the compensation factor
(Jaramillo et al, 2004). Adopting HPPs to compensate for SHPs and WBSS drawbacks is an
advantageous solution from environmental, economic, and technical perspective, especially in
Brazil’s case.
Certain comparisons should only be done among power sources which have similar character-
istics. For example, comparing SHP/WBSS and HPP directly is a mistake from a technical viewpoint.
A huge potential to generate hydro-electricity still remains in Brazil and has to be explored. This
assertion is supported by the fact that hydro is a renewable energy source and Brazil needs to expand
energy generation with reliable power sources. Moreover hydro can facilitate growth of other
renewable sources like SHP and WBSS (Kayguzuz, 2009). If HPPs are not used for this, other
sources, like those based on fossil fuels which are certainly much more harmful to the environment
(Demirbas, 2007 and Balat, 2006) and highly expensive, will have to replace it and this would be a
nonsensical action.
Energy policy and strategic guidelines have to afford appropriate conditions to fully explore all of
Brazil’s energy resources, obviously considering the three sustainable principles mentioned here:
environmental, economic, and technical. This is a way to supply electricity with reasonable costs,
reliability, and considering the environment.

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