When was the last time an accomplished technocrat like Mitt Romney ran for the presidency of the

United States? You have to go at least as far back as 1992 when Bill Clinton won the polls. That’s a good
parallel. But, another coincidence – 1988 Democratic Party candidate Michael Dukakis was also known
as a technocrat who said he would bring “competence” to his presidency. Like Mr Romney Dukakis was
also a governor of Massachusetts. He lost – in a landslide. To this day one of his fumbles, Dukakis in the
tank , is subject of many jokes. It’s true that the incumbent president Barack Obama is the first college
professor in almost a century to sit in the oval office. Last time that happened was in 1912, when
Woodrow Wilson, another Law professor took over as the 28th President. But, as New York Times
recently said – “President Obama has a Harvard law degree. Former President George W. Bush has a
Harvard M.B.A. Will the next president have both?” Mr Romney has an MBA from Harvard B School (
where he was a Baker Scholar) and a JD from Harvard Law School ( where he was an Honors student).
His first job as a strategy consultant was in 1975 at Bain and Company , which then as now, is one of the
most respected strategy consulting firms in the world. After a very successful career as CEO of Bain
Capital turning around many companies Mr Romney also turned around the Salt Lake City Winter
Olympics which was mired in many scandals before he took over. Mr Romney’s next stop was as a
governor in Massachusetts – When Mr Romney took over the bay state had a deficit of 3 Billion, he
turned that into a surplus of 1 Billion in 2 years. When he left his office in 2007 Massachusetts had a
surplus of 3 Billions. After Mr Romney’s departure, Democrat governor Deval Patrick took over and
Massachusetts has slided back into the red running an unsustainable level of debt once again. He had
to work across the aisle as most of the legislators in the state assembly were Democrats –Mr Romney
liked to joke “Being a conservative Republican in Massachusetts is a bit like being a cattle rancher at a
vegetarian convention.”

Such a track-record as a technocrat should give Mr Romney a significant advantage when in US and the
world over the problems are fiscal in nature - Social Security, Medicare, Deficits, Anemic Recovery
Recovery in US, “Grexit” and Eurozone in Europe.

The current incumbent Mr Obama has not really been on top of the important issues. . That’s not
entirely unexpected as Mr Obama first came to the scene as a racial healer, almost a new age guru – not
a problem solving technocrat. During his campaign he claimed capital gains taxes should be raised . It
was pointed out that lesser capital gains taxes in fact always raised larger revenue. It did not seem to
perturb Mr Obama to claim that he would raise capital gains taxes even if that meant having lesser
revenue, for purposes of fairness. Capital gains tax is innately different from income tax. There is a
reason it’s kept low – so that capital is utilized efficiently. The math is easy to understand – here is how.
It is a fair expectation that a candidate who wants to preside over a 16 trillion dollar economy would
understand the fundamentals of something as basic as tax policy. During his campaign Mr Obama used
to fumble on the basics of international relations. When Russia attacked Georgia in 2008 Mr Obama
chastised George W Bush government for not going to UN. Yet, such an act of aggression would have
landed in UN Security Council, where Russia has a veto, discussed here. It was a perfect storm of low
approval ratings for President Bush and the collapse in the financial markets that carried Mr Obama to
the White House. There was hope and change in the air.
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Mr Obama gave a budget to the Congress this year – it was rejected by 99-0 in Senate ( where his own
party , the Democrats, hold the majority) and 414-0 in the house ( held by GOP) . One of his signature
accomplishments , the stimulus that allegedly saved the US economy is wildly unpopular and with good
reasons. Even a report written by White House Council of Economic advisors ( all handpicked by Mr
Obama ) claims after spending 666 billion dollars the stimulus saved or created 2.4 million jobs. That’s $
278000 a job. Mr Obama does not talk about the stimulus even in the stumps. His other legislative
accomplishment is Obamacare – it’s even more unpopular.To quote the columnist Aveek Roy - it will
expand the deficit, a problem that John Roberts’s opinion makes materially worse. It rations Medicare. It
forces between 17 and 25 million more people into Medicaid, a program with some of the worst health
outcomes in the world, in which people die of toothaches because they can’t gain access to care. It raises
taxes by more than $500 billion over ten years. And above all it succeeded in hike of insurance premiums –
already by 10% in some cases. The center piece of Obamacare is the individual mandate – something
candidate Obama opposed vehemently his debates with Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Primaries in 2008.
To impose the individual mandate Mr Obama would go for a penalty – that’s too toothless to bite. The
recovery is anemic. The unemployment is shown as 8.1% - but that’s gimmickry. The unemployment numbers
do not take into account the number of people who have stopped looking for jobs. If that number is taken
into account – the employment-population ratio falls to 58.2%, the worst since 1983. White single
women, a key voting block for the democrats have been badly impacted in the underperforming
economy. Mr Obama does a lot of posturing of course. His attack ads have borne some success in the
battleground states – that tries to show Mr Romney as a rich Gordon Gekko and Mr Obama as a lone
ranger fighting against the plutocrats of Wall Street. An overcautious Mr Romney has not put out the
facts. Mr Obama was supported by the rich ( those earning above 200 Thousands) by a margin of 52 to
46 in 2008 elections according to figures published in liberal Washington Post. In 2008 Mr Obama
collected almost twice as much as Sen John Mccain from Wall Street. That was money well spent –
Major Wall Street firms made more money in the first two years of Obama Presidency than they did in
eight years of George W Bush. That’s right – Mr Obama outraised Mr Mccain two to one in Wall Street,
Wall Street made more money in first two years of his administration than they did in 8 years of George
W Bush, he watered down the stricter capital adequacy limits of Dodd- Frank and still wants to be
thought as a crusader against Wall Street. That’s a contradiction asking for an attack ad from GOP.
Surprisingly however, GOP has not attacked Mr Obama on such obvious contradictions.

Foreign Policy has been incoherent. Candidate Obama first came to prominence by opposing Iraq war.
His Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta said Iraq war was worth it. But, Mr Obama still pulled out from
Iraq likely to fritter away the gains made in the surge in 2007. Mr Obama used to constantly attack
George W Bush for doing badly in Afghanistan. Twice as many soldiers died in Afghanistan in three and
half years of Mr Obama than in eight years of George W Bush.

Senator Barack Obama used to oppose tribunals, renditions, Guantanamo, preventive detention,
Predator-drone attacks, wiretaps, and intercepts. President Barack Obama’s policy toolkit contains ,
well, tribunals, renditions, Guantanamo, preventive detention, Predator-drone attacks, wiretaps, and
intercepts. If you see a contradiction your eyes are not deceiving you.
With so many negatives is Mr Obama a still a favorite? If so, why? Opinions are divided. Some analysis
Show him ahead at this stage. But we need to remember it’s just two weeks after the convention. Mr
Obama still has the post convention bounce, yet he is ahead by just 2.9 percent in the Real Clear Politics
average. As we go ahead – the bounce fades even more. Nate Silver has crunched the numbers on how
candidates in the past fared two weeks after the convention. Look at another close election – the one in
2004. Incumbent President George W Bush was ahead by 5 points two weeks after the convention , two
points more than where Mr Obama is today. He went on to win – but just by a whisker. And two weeks
after the convention. Analyst Sean Trende says - No incumbent party has ever held on to the White
House while leading by fewer than four points two weeks after its convention; no incumbent president
has ever won re-election while leading by fewer than five points.

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Those familiar with US elections would know the key to victory is in winning the so called battleground
states or toss- up states. There are Blue States (e.g., New York, Massachusetts, California etc..) which
would go to the Democrats almost no matter what. There are red states ( e.g., Texas, Kentucky, South
Carolina) that equally easily would go to GOP. When you do the math out of the 538 electoral college
votes 237 are leaning towards the Democrats and 191 towards the GOP. In other words out of 538, 428
are reliably accounted for already – seven weeks before the election. That leaves just 110 votes in the
battleground states. Out of 110 Mr Obama needs just 33 and Mr Romney needs 79 – 270 is the magic
number. That gives Mr Romney a paper thin margin of error. When Mr Karl Rove, the architect of many
famous GOP victories ( the Congress in 1994 after almost 40 years, Presidency in 2000 ) tried to chalk
out a plan he came to a 3-2-1 strategy. In a recent interview Mr Romney’s political director Mr Rich
Beeson also said his planned path to victory more or less follows the same formula. He said the GOP
candidate ( the primary was still on, so it was not known that Mr Romney would be the candidate)
needs to first retain all the states that Sen John Mccain won in 2008. Mr Mccain won 173 when the wind
was against him in 2008, so that should not be a problem for Mr Romney. There has been an additional
factor – the redistricting in 2010. That has added some electoral college votes ( or delegates) to GOP.
Due to redistricting two solid GOP states have lost 1 vote each , Missourie ( from 11 to 10) and Louisiana
( from 10 to 9). But a few GOP states have gained – Georgia ( from 15 to 16) , South Carolina ( from 8 to
9) , Utah ( from 5 to 6) , Arizona ( from 8 to 9) and Texas ( from 34 to 38). GOP has a net gain of 7 seats.
By the way, that also means Democrats have 7 less compared to 2008. Migration has happened from
fiscally weak Blue states. Illinois ( 21 to 20), Massachusetts ( 12 to 11), Michigan ( 17 to 16), New Jersey
( 15 to 14) have lost one each. New York has lost two from 31 to 29. Iowa, which went for Barack Obama
in 2008 also lost 1 ( from 7 to 6) Now when delegates are awarded most of the times they are awarded
in a winner-takes-all fashion. If you win a narrow victory in say, Florida , you’d be awarded all 29
delegates there. Only two exceptions are Nebraska and Maine. There the delegates are awarded
proportionately. Last time Mr Obama won 1 district of Nebraska –that’s expected to revert back to GOP.
In addition Indiana with its 11 delegates surprisingly went for Mr Obama, that’s expected to be a safe
pick for GOP this time. Thus Mr Romney reaches 191. Indiana is one of the 3 states that must flip back to
GOP for Mr Rove’s 3-2-1 formula to work. The two other states – North Carolina and Virginia. North
Carolina , normally a safe GOP state with 15 delegates went for the president last time. This time in
almost all polls Mr Romney does lead. If the challenger is ahead in a state just two weeks after the
Democratic Party convention it’s probable that he would probable that he would have the state in his
column on November 6.After the convention Mr Obama had a bounce. He is behind in North Carolina
despite the bounce. Though not a complete lock in – smart money should be on Mr Romney winning
North Carolina. Mr Romney is now at 206. That’s when things turn a little uncertain.

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Let us just revisit the 3-2-1 plan for a moment. Mr Romney retains all the states Senator John Mccain
won. He goes to 173. He wins eight more mainly due to redistricting. He is at 180. He has to flip three
states from Mr Obama for starters. He wins Indiana with eleven delegates , most times a safe GOP pick.
He is at 191. He is expected to pick up North Carolina also – that takes him to 206.
The other must win state in the group of 3 is Virginia with 13 delegates. Virginia was very much a part of
the old south. Richmond used to be the capital of the Confederates – Confederate president Jefferson
Davies used to rule from there. But modern Virginia resembles two states. The southern part of VA is a
reliably red state. The northern part which reaches up to the DC suburbs is urban and leans democrat.
Young voters under 30 form 22% of the electorate as per 2010 census – a group that went for Obama
by 60-40 in 2008. The state also has a 20% population of African Americans. In Virginia 92% of African
Americans voted for Mr Obama in 2008 . At this time Mr Obama leads in VA – albeit by a small margin.
Some polls like Rasmussen show Mr Obama leading by just 1% . But it’s a critical must win state state for
Mr Romney. It’s almost certain to go down to the wire.

To quote Mr Rove - Next up is "2"—as in Florida and Ohio. They flipped from Republican in 2004 to
Democratic in 2008. Both were close—a 2.8% margin for Mr. Obama in the former and 4.6% in the latter.
Florida was of course where much heartache took place in 2000 and the verdict was decided in the US
Supreme Court in favour of George W Bush in 2000. Since then it has got only more important. Due to
redistricting Florida has gained 2 delegates taking the count from 27 to 29. GOP, of course, understands
the importance of the state and had their convention in Tampa, Fla. Going by 2010 census 22.5% of
Florida residents are Hispanics. Mr Obama’s recent controversial decision ordering an executive order
to go slow on deporting illegal immigrants has to be seen in that light. There has been a demographic
shift also. In Miami –Dade GOP has almost always dominated due to the presence of Cuban-Americans
who reliably vote for GOP though newer non Cuban-Hispanics vote Democrat. Mr Beeson claimed in
the same interview - two key surrogates will help limit Obama’s advantage among Hispanic voters in the
Sunshine State: Senator Marco Rubio, “who is extremely effective all around the state, and especially
down in Miami Dade” county, and Puerto Rico Governor Luis Fortuno, who is an asset with the large
Puerto Rican population along central Florida’s I-4 corridor. But at this point Mr Romney is still behind in
Florida in almost all polls – though by a small margin. Real Clear Politics has the president ahead but by
just 1.3%. Florida also had a huge number of mortgage foreclosure during the housing crisis and never
completely recovered. Mr Romney’s ads in the sunshine state is directed towards that crisis.

Next up is Ohio. The buckeye state has 18 delegates. This is also a state that is normally close. That was
the last state that narrowly went for Mr George W Bush in 2004 and allowed him to narrowly reach the
majority. Mr Romney is still behind in almost all polls in Ohio- at this point on an average by 4
percentage points. The junior senator from Ohio, Mr Rob Portman ( former budget director to George W
Bush ) is from GOP and was discussed as a possible VP pick. Democrats fancy their chances in Ohio -
More than 783,000 Ohio residents, 15.5% of all workers in the state, are members of labor unions, the
6th highest state population of union workers. Other than being a large voting block, the labor unions
also provide the boots in the ground – crucial in a close election to get the voter turnout. The state has
lost large number of manufacturing jobs. Many of the jobs were shipped to China. Democrats keep
harping on Mr Romney’s record in Bain Capital – where he was allegedly a pioneer in outsourcing. Ohio
also has a large population of seniors – 14.1% of the electorate. In recent years they have leaned
towards GOP. Partly that’s due to the prescription drug benefits given by George W Bush. And in 2010
they came in large numbers to elect the Republican governor John Kasich – scared by the Obamacare
proposal of cutting the medicare benefits by 714 Billions. Romney-Ryan ticket would do all it can to keep
reminding the seniors of this feature of Obamacare.

Though he is behind in all three states currently – if Mr Romney manages to pull ahead by November 6,
he has a total of sixty delegates in these three states. That takes his count to 266. Though not probable
it’s not an implausible scenario. One reason for optimism is that Mr Obama polls less than 50% in
approval ratings in all three states – never a good sign for an incumbent. Mr Obama’s approval generally
hovers around 46%. Political Analyst Sean Trende has crunched numbers from last 40 years – he has
found 46% is the floor for the democratic party. The democrat candidate would not get less than that.
So Mr Obama has just locked in his core voters – those who would vote for him anyway. He needs
others. And if , after seeing the incumbent for four years those others are not leaning towards him –
they are unlikely to actually vote for him.

Then Mr Romney seeds 4 more seats to reach 270. That ‘s “1” in Mr Rove’s 3-2-1 - just one more state.
Where would that come from?

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If Mr Romney gets to 266 he is close to the magic figure of 270. He needs one more state.

The most obvious is Wisconsin. Mr Romney’s VP pick is Representative Paul Ryan –the chairman of the
house budget committee. He is from the badger state. Wisconsin has 10 delegates . If Mr Ryancan
deliver America’s dairyland to Mr Romney then he reaches 276. Another reason for confidence is the
recent recall election – Republican governor Mr Scott Walker won easily. 13.7% of Wisconsin residents
are senior citizens – that helped GOP in 2010 as Obamacare proposed cuts in medicare. Wisconsin
has an unemployment rate of 7.6% - less than the national average. Foreclosure rate is 1 in 818 , well
below the national average of 1 in 583. GOP governor ‘s fiscal prudence and business friendly policies
were contributing factors. Mr Walker inherited a $ 3.6 Billion deficit and turned that into a surplus. The
Hispanic population is just 5.9% and African American population just 6% - factors that do not really help
Democrats. Sex ratio does favor women – but that’s just 50.4% - not high enough to give the democrats
a significant advantage.

Of course there are other routes in the 3-2-1 plan. One was the so called neighborhood route. Mr
Romney can try to win New Hampshire ( 4 delegates) – he was the governor in neighboring
Massachusetts and maintains a summer home in New Hampshire. One of the senators from New
Hampshire is Kelly Ayotte, a republican – who is very active as a Romney surrogate and was discussed as
a possible Romney VP pick. But that’s one of the few states where Mr Obama has more than 50%
approval.

Another route could be through west. Mr Romney could win Colorado which has 9 delegates. In some
recent polls like Rasmussen Mr Romney is ahead by 2 points in Colorado. Colorado used to be a reliable
red state – but the urban concentration has gone up in recent years. Most of the population growth in
Colorado took place in the urban centers - Denver or Boulder . Urban professionals in recent years have
broken for democrats across the US. Hispanic population is 20.7 % of the total in Colorado – a group that
backs Obama by 2 to 1. And independent voters form a large chunk. Half Million independant voters
got added to the rolls since 2008. Mr Romney probably expects that his education, business and
technocratic background would help him with the urban educated professionals and youth to an extent
that a religious conservative like Rick Santorum could not have hoped. Another interesting feature – the
centenary state has the tenth largest foreclosure rate in the nation – something that Mr Romney should
try to exploit against the incumbent.

But there should be other routes to the milestone of 270. We will next visit those.
****************************************************************************

Another western state is Nevada. Nevada ‘s popular governor Brian Sandoval is a Republican but he is
pro-choice . According to Jon Dekker, a Hoover Institution scholar who has analysed Nevada - it has the
highest foreclosure rate in the country , the highest bankruptcy rate in the country and an 11.6%
unemployment. Hispanics number 13.6% of the electorate. And democratic machine is very active in
the silver state – 100,000 new voters were added to the democratic party rolls in 2008 alone. The
registered democrats outnumber the registered republicans 41 to 37 percent. Mr Dekker expects the
Hispanics to tilt the 6 electoral college votes in Mr Obama’s favor.

Admittedly there are other paths to 270. Mr Romney was doing well in some polls in Pennsylvania in
summer– since then he has run an on again-off again campaign in the keystone state. Pennsylvania has
a neat 20 electoral college votes. At this time that looks like a safe bet for Mr Obama. A key reason is Mr
Obama has a 12% advantage among women.

The other state that Mr Rove suggested was Michigan. That’s a very interesting case. Michigan has 16
delegates. Mr Romney grew up in Michigan where his father was the CEO of American Motors . And
George Romney was a popular governor as well. But Michigan has n’t voted for a Republican President
since 1988. Even though the governor Rick Snyder is a Republican it’s likely to end in Mr Obama’s
column.

That leaves Iowa. The hawkeye state has 6 delegates. In an recent interview to CNN GOP governor Terry
Branstad has said the Ryan pick is likely to give some advantage - having a Catholic as the No. 2 on the
GOP ticket will help with a critical voting bloc here, especially in the Northeast corner of the state. But in
five of the last six elections Iowa went democrat – only exception was 2004 when George W Bush won
the state. But, Iowa has one of the highest populations of senior citizen residents, 14.9% - a key voting
block likely to be apprehensive of Obamacare proposals to cut medicare. Iowa is a net exporter of
energy – ethanol is prepared from Corn grown in Iowa. 20% of Iowa’s energy comes from wind and
biofules like ethanol. In recent times Democrats have started to own the “green” issues with their
support for renewables. Liberals are hopeful - In 2008, Democrat Obama won the allegiances of two
particular age-groups of Iowans: voters under 30 years old (61%), and remarkably. middle-aged voters
from age 45 to 64 (54%). Together, the two groups represented 55% of Iowa's electorate in 2008 . The
middle aged voters probably would shift away from Mr Obama due to the anemic recovery – but young
voters may still back him. GOP probably expects young Mr Ryan would cut into the youth vote.

Where does all these all leave us? Looking at the odds – Mr Romney needs to flip three states ( Florida,
Ohio and Virginia) just to get to 266. Bad news is he is currently behind in all three. Good news is
President Obama’s approval is below 50% in all three. Then he has to win one more state. Mr Romney
needs to flip at least one of Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada , Colorado and New Hampshire. Going by the
numbers – he is leading in Colorado in some polls. He has decent shots in Wisconsin ( Paul Ryan’s home
state) and Iowa ( next door to Wisconsin). It’s going to be very close barring some sudden development
like the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. It will probably resemble 2000 or 2004. It’s unlikely to be a
landslide for either. Though there is a slim possibility that it would resemble 1980 – where there was a
stalemate till almost the last minute. It got decisive only after Ronald Reagan asked that famous
question “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Though like than, a lot hangs on debates.
Mr Romney would probably take heart from 2000. At around this time in 2000 George W Bush was also
written off as “Bush is Toast”. Would there be another cliffhanger this time?

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