Cambridge Phaal TM Presentation

Centre for Technology Management
UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners
Fast-start technology
roadmapping
Thursday 9th October 2003, 09:00 - 13:00
Dr Robert Phaal
Workshop aim
To provide:
• An introduction to the theory and practice

of technology roadmapping
Agenda
09:00 Overview
09:10 Technology roadmapping - principles & practice
10:30 Break
11:00 T-Plan ‘fast-start’ approach
11:20 Group activity - the bicycle of the future
12:30 Discussion - getting started
13:00 Review and close
Technology roadmapping -
principles & practice
Roadmapping - Planning for the Future

Time
Market M1 M2
P1 P2 P3
Product
P4
T1 T2
Technology
T3 T4
R&D RD 1 RD 2 RD 4 RD 6
programmes RD 3 RD 5
Capital investment / finance

Resources Supply chain
Staff / skills
Technology roadmapping process

• Facilitate the integration of new technology into the business
• Support for company strategy and planning processes
• Identify new business opportunities for exploiting technology
• Provide top level information on the technological direction of the
business
• Support communication and co-operation within the business
• Identify gaps in market and technical knowledge
• Support sourcing decisions, resource allocation, risk management
and exploitation decisions
• High-level integrated planning and control
- a common reference / framework
Time is a key dimension…

prediction / investment
Short term Medium term Long term
Uncertainty / risk of
New (?):
- Markets
- Products
- Technologies
- Capabilities
- Organisational structures
- Distribution channels
- Competition
Time
Operations Innovation Strategy
What to manufacture? Which products? Which technologies?

How many of each model? Which markets?
What materials to order? What cost?
qualitative focus
quantitative focus
Performance
Technology as a dynamic resource
Technology New dominant
discontinuity technology
(disruptive??)
Base Technology ‘S’ curves
Current
dominant Shape influenced by:
Key
technology • Market demand
• Scientific knowledge
Pacing
Emerging ‘Turbulence’ • Investment / innovation
Adapted from Bower & Christensen, 1995
Time
Strategic Postures
1. Shape the future 2. Adapt to the future 3. Reserve the right to play
Performance
Performance
Performance
Time Courtney et al (HBR, 1997) Time Time
Evolution of long range planning approaches

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Strategic
planning
Motorola develops
technology
roadmapping Take up in Semiconductor
approach electronics Technology Roadmap Roadmapping
sector approach
Take up in supports
Co-evolution other sectors integrated
- companies strategic
- consortia planning
- government
Policy Foresight
Forecasting
Science fiction Futures & Scenario planning
Technology roadmapping
Relationship to the strategic planning process
Market Information
Where are the
boundaries of
the roadmapping
Product-Market analysis process?
Product-Technology Roadmap Defined Project

Options Evaluation Creation Targets Proposals
Technology Assessment
Identification of Technology
Available / Feasible / Possible Source: EIRMA, 1997
Technology roadmapping
Two extremes
1. Market ‘pull’ 2. Technology ‘push’

- How to reach a goal? - What opportunities could arise?
• Planning • Technology focus

• Market focus • Looking for opportunities
• Assumes product market opportunity • Open ended
• Deterministic • Divergent
• Convergent
• Customer driven
The ‘fast-start’ concept:

roadmapping as an ongoing process
Programme
management
Project 3
management
Synchronise Corporate
2 planning
Forecasting Product
Persuade Portfolio
1 planning management
Understand Resource Measure: Measure:

Simplification allocation Aligned Ongoing
Measure:
priorities & co-ordination
Competitive Accuracy
analysis decisions
and clarity
Fast-Start Kappel, 2001

Roadmapping
(Lucent Technologies)
influence
Flexibility of roadmapping
Flexibility is a key strength (and challenge) of the roadmapping
approach, in terms of:
• The wide range of aims that roadmapping can contribute towards
• The timeframe covered by the roadmap (past and future)
• The structure of the roadmap (layers and sub-layers), which can be adapted to
fit the particular application
• The process that is followed to develop and maintain the roadmap/s
• The graphical format that is selected to present information and communicate
the roadmap
• The set of existing processes, tools and information sources in the firm, which
the roadmap and roadmapping process need to integrate with
Types of roadmap: purpose and format

Purpose Format
Product
planning Bars
Capability
planning Multiple layers
Table
Strategic
planning
Single layer
Long range
planning
Graph
Generic TRM Text
Knowledge asset
planning
Pictorial
Programme
planning
Flow
Process
planning
Integration
planning
Generic roadmap - links resources to objectives

Layers connect:
Past Now Plans Future Vision Time
Market / Customers / Competitors / (know-when)
Environment / Industry /
Business / Trends / Drivers / Threats / ‘purpose’
Objectives / Milestones / Strategy (know-why)
ll
Pu
t
Products / Services / Applications /
ke
ar
Services / Capabilities / Performance / ‘delivery’
M
Features / Components / Families /
Processes / Systems / Platforms /
(know-what)
Opportunities / Requirements / Risks
h
us
Technology /
Competences / yp
log
‘resources’
no
Knowledge (know-how)
ch
Te
Other resources:
Skills / Partnerships / Suppliers /
Facilities / Infrastructure / Organisation /
Standards / Science / Finance / R&D Projects
Technology roadmaps
Examples of applications
• Motorola
- To encourage business managers to give proper attention to the technological future
- To provide a vehicle for organising the forecasting process
- To communicate to design & development engineers and marketing personnel which
technologies will be required in future products
• Lucas
- To provide integrated project planning for engineering systems
- To supply sound technological inputs to the budget process
• Post Office Research Group

- To communicate the research plans to business sponsors
- To help focus and prioritisation of research activity
- To identify where expert knowledge is required in the future
Motorola Roadmap Matrix

- summary of product plans and technology forecast
Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated
Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors
Subcarrier function Stereo Paging Data Maps
IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS
Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence
Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre
Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth
RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION
PRODUCTS Plus: A NEW SERVICE

Stereo Plus: Plus:
Stock market
Scan Personal Road information Super Hi Fi
paging Remote
Seek amplifiers Local maps
Remote controls
Lucas roadmaps - a required input to the budget process

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
External influences
External
1 2 3 4
Influences 1.
2.
System 3.
Demonstrator 4.
.
Component / Market Trends

Sub-system
a)
b)
c)
Technology d)
Project .
.
Lucas Technology Road-map activity coding
Activity Description Market Trends Addressed
Principal Participants/Collaborators
Project Status External Funding Source
Time Window
Lucas - linking Technology to Business Planning
Business Planning
PP+TRMs
GapAnalysis
Gap Analysis
Gap Analysis
Benchmarking Acquisition
External : Benchmarking
Benchmarking Planning
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Markets Make Buy
Competitors Acquisitions
Technologies Technology
Technology
Technology R&D JVs
Audit
Audit
... Audit Projects Licensing
Technology Base
Post Office Research - communicating & prioritising

Time
Triggers / Uncertain /
Germany Regulator Home shopping EU Increasing transport constraints, 12% reduction
issues high impact liberalised action? takes off liberalised environmental pressure, tolls, etc. in emissions
New business Bespoke solutions Evolve Global reach

European reach
(Europe & NA)
Market Existing products Grow express Timed dated products

trends & services business Changing mail mix (> packets)
Ongoing
Best practice Cost reduction & efficiency improvements
Evolve
E capability E-business fulfilment
Capacity & Evolve

Capabilities efficiency
improvement
Network Evolve Flexible & dynamic
competence ‘distribution’ network
Intelligent transport technologies
Routing & scheduling Network integration

Research GAPS ? Supply chain
Materials handling
activity E-access
Track & trace
Environmental
Colours relate to
Key: Requires investment existing sub-themes
Foresight Vehicle technology roadmapping initiative

• The overall goal of the technology roadmapping initiative was
to support the aims of the Foresight Vehicle consortium, providing
a framework for ongoing investment in UK research partnerships,
focused on achieving sustainable wealth creation and quality of life
• This required identification of market and industry trends and

drivers that impact future requirements for road transport in the UK,
and the associated technology needs and opportunities
• The roadmapping process encouraged communication and

discussion within a creative workshop environment and the
roadmap provides a framework for continuing this more broadly
in the future
Road transport system: key themes
Social Social, economic and

environmental drivers
reflect the three
cornerstones of
Economic Environmental sustainable development
Technology, policy and

Political Infrastructural infrastructure
enable or constrain
progress towards the
social, economic and
Technological environmental goals
Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: architecture

+5 years +10 years +15 years +20 years
Now Vision
Market / S Time
T
Industry E
E Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties
P
drivers I
Performance
Evolution of required and desirable functional
measures performance of road transport systems of the future
and targets
Technical Required and desired technological response,

Group areas including research requirements
Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: process

Engine and powertrain (E&PT)
Hybrid, electric and alternatively

Market Road fuelled vehicles (HEV)
and transport
Planning industry system Advanced software, sensors, Reporting
Consultation electronics and telematics (ASSET) Synthesis
(Oct ‘01) trends performance (Sept ‘02)
and measures
drivers and targets Advanced structures
and materials (FASMAT)
Design and manufacturing

Processes (DMaP)
Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information
• 10 month duration • More than 130 participants

• 10 workshops • More than 60 organisations
Example detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Vision
80-85% of journeys Growth in personal mobility (70% of Individual 2010: Passenger 2015: 150% 2031: 57% increase in Cheap,
by car 39,40,103 drivers use car for leisure day trips ‘time numbers through increase in UK road traffic, safe,
75% of all journeys every week or month; 50% expect to be budget’ for UK airports international air compared to 1996 80,103 reliable,
are under 5 miles making more by 2020) 42 travel increase by 50% 30 traffic; 100% clean
and 45% are less remains increase in 2031: 40% increase convenient,
Journey times increasing (70% longer 2010: 20-50% 2012: Bicycle in bus / coach
than 2 miles 31 constant ? domestic, comfortable
by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67 increase in European journeys vehicle miles,
31
compared to transport
Nearly one third of Vehicles sold increasingly as Increasing road passenger and double 1995 1 compared to 1996 1 for all
UK households do ‘lifestyle’ choices ? complexity of haulage traffic 13,80
lives ? Frustration with congestion and public 2022: 70%
not have a car (13
increase in journey
million people) 31 Increasing female vehicle purchase / 2010: 10% increase transport continues ?
ownership (women are more likely to (journey time no longer predictable) times in many UK
Many different Trend towards in bus passenger
describe their cars as ‘stylish’, ‘sporty’ or cities 1996 80
stakeholder groups, career journeys 30
with different needs ‘fun’) 42
Balance between ‘downsizing’ for Legal issues and New working / 2030: population
from transport People and jobs improved 2010: 50% in the UK is
global, national frameworks ? living patterns
system have moved out of lifestyle ? increase in rail forecast to
and local
the city and town solutions ? passenger miles 30 Social increase by
UK car-centric Shift from car ownership
centres 103 attitudes 3.3%, to 61
culture Increasing to car access ?
Increasing proportion of women in towards road million 1,39,40,67,
leisure time 39,40
1999: UK ‘leads’ paid employment (9.9 million in transport and after which it will
world in vehicle 1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) 73 Increased the decline to 57
Increasing 2010: 25% of UK 2015: 400 million environment?
theft (twice global More than half of drivers exceed speed use of car million by 2050 73
mobile workforce people live in
average at limits on motorways, dual carriageways pools ?
working teleworking at megacities of more 2030: 22- 27% of
2.5%); cost of and residential roads 66
vehicle-related least two days per than 10 million UK population
crime £6bn 46,47 More residential traffic calming schemes week 57 inhabitants 57 over retirement
and pedestrianisation of town centres age, compared to
Younger 2016: 4 million (25%) 19% in 1998;
2000: Demand to Shift in social
generation more increase in housing (80% pension costs rise
3,500 road traffic reduce deaths attitudes to
Between 8 and IT-literate single-person), increasing from 4.5-5.5% of
deaths and 40,000 and injuries on speeding
20% of car- demand for travel 1,67 GDP 1,25,39,40
serious injuries in roads
UK, at an estimated owning
2007: working at home becoming Continued 2016: 25% increase in number 2021: Households
cost of £13.3bn households
common (currently more than 66% of growth of of UK households, 80% of in South-east
(40,000 deaths and experience
Increasing European organisations with more cities and growth due to single person forecast to grow by
1.7 million injuries in vehicle-related
concern about than 500 employees already practice towns, mainly households; 1.3% rural land 19% on 2001
EU, representing a crime each year,
crime, security teleworking) 28,39,40 in South East use predicted to change to levels 41
cost of 2% of GDP) depending on
8,37,39,40 region 41 and safety urban land use 39,40
Key: Mobility & congestion Lifestyle & attitudes Demographics Health, safety & security
Example summary roadmap content:

Social trends & drivers
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Growing demand for mobility
Social attitudes towards

Congestion and pressure on infrastructure
transport and the environment Cheap, safe,
convenient,
Changing working and living patterns Ageing population
Society
comfortable,
clean and
Increased mobile and home working
secure
Continued growth of transport
More single person households Continued growth of cities and towns
South East for all
Consumer demand for greater variety, quality and performance of products and services
Increasing concern for health, safety and security


Social performance measures & targets
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Aim for 2005: 70% user 2010: 80% user 2020: 85%
‘equitable’ satisfaction with satisfaction with user
mobility all transport all transport satisfaction
Vehicle
(same price modes (measure modes with all adaptability
for same of ‘convenience’) transport
journey for modes
2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5 Urban people
Society
all groups
in society) - Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5 transport
minutes
- Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window
glass: 2 minutes Effective
selling and
2005: Road 2010: Road traffic 2020: Road traffic noise reduced
traffic noise noise reduced by by 6dBA; customer
reduced by 3dBA 4dBA Homologated noise reduction of support
from 1998 levels 4dBA and 8dBA for light and
heavy vehicles, respectively

Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology development, leading to new fuel and power systems,
such as hydrogen and fuel cells, which satisfy future social, economic and environmental goals
Hybrid, electric & alternatively
Sustainable
Continuous improvement in terms of range, life, safety and vehicle fuel
Increasing Pilot trials and local Hydrogen fuel
performance; development of legislation and standards
cell and engine
fuelled vehicles
variety and fuel distribution

use of hybrid, infrastructure technology systems, that
electric, development trucks and buses first and meet the
multi-fuel and infrastructure
alternatively
50kW fuel cells 200kW fuel cells
becoming needs of
and subsystems and subsystems
fuelled for heavy vehicles
viable on a society,
vehicle large scale industry and
technologies, Use of hydrogen in IC engines, and with ?
and fuel cells as auxiliary power units
the
development
Development of electrics, electronics and battery
environment
of fuels and
systems for new engine and powertrain systems
infrastructure
Development of supporting technologies (storage systems, compressors,
air supply, reforming, materials, thermal management, etc.)
Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping
Aims:
• To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology roadmap for Faraday Partnership,
bringing together industrial and research communities
• To collect, structure and share knowledge about recent and future
developments in markets and technology, together with requirements
and capabilities of future applications
• To identify key emerging strategic issues, research challenges,
and way forward
Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping approach

Architecture Process
Now
Past Plans Future Vision
1a) Map trends & drivers
Trends &
1b) Map technology
1a
drivers
2a) Application needs
2a 2a 2b) Application capabilities
Applications 3 3) Applications
- Map
2b 2b - Research challenges
- Skills
Technology 1b - Way forward
Faraday Partnership technology roadmap process

Phase 1 Phase 2
Potential TRM ‘modes’

Detailed TRM
Summary TRM
1 day Review Strategic TRM
Planning Workshop Roll-out
meeting Thematic TRM
(knowledge
mapping & Template TRM
strategic
review) Project TRM
Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information

Software for technology roadmapping

Software supports the roadmapping process, in terms of data storage
Integration and communication, particularly as the process matures…
A number of systems are used:

• MS PowerPoint or other graphics software
• MS Project or other Gantt software
• MS Excel or other spreadsheet software
• US Office of Naval Research ‘Graphical Modelling System’ (GMS) - free!

- http://www.onr.navy.mil/gms/gms.asp
• The Learning Trust ‘Geneva Vision Strategist’ - enterprise solution (Motorola)

- http://www.learningtrust.com
Useful references
• Willyard and McClees (1987), ‘Motorola's Technology Roadmap process’, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19
• EIRMA (1997) ‘Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision’, Working Group Report No 52
• Groenveld (1997) ‘Roadmapping integrates business and technology’, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55
• Kostoff, R.N. (1997), ‘Science and Technology Roadmaps’, Defense Technical Information Center,
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/kostoff/index.html
• Garcia & Bray (1997) ‘Fundamentals of technology roadmapping’, Sandia National Lab, http://www.sandia/gov SAND97-0665
• Schaller(1999) master roadmap bibliography: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rschalle/master.html
• Kappel (2001) ‘Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future’, Journal of Product Innovation Management,
Vol 18, pp39-50
• Research Technology Management - special edition on technology roadmapping, Vol 42, No. 2, March 2003 (5 papers, including
Domino Printing Sciences, Lucent Technologies, Roche and Rockwell Automation experience)
• OEM Roadmaps - lots of links to (mainly) sector roadmaps: http://www.oemroadmaps.com
• US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50,
July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/links.html
• Australian guide to developing technology roadmaps - technology planning for business competitiveness, August 2001:
http://industry.gov.au/library/content_library/ 13_technology_road_mapping.pdf
• Industry Canada - Technology roadmapping - a strategy for success, including a guide for government employees:
http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/intrm-crt.nsf/vwGeneratedInterE/Home
T-Plan ‘fast-start’ approach

Roadmapping challenges
50
45
40
Response (%)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Starting up Developing a Roll-out of Keeping the Other
the TRM robust TRM the TRM TRM process
process process process 'alive' on an
ongoing
basis
Source: CTM survey, 1999
T-Plan aims
• To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes
• To establish key linkages between technology resources and
business drivers
• To identify important gaps in market, product and technology
intelligence
• To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology roadmap
• To support technology strategy and planning initiatives in the firm
• To support communication between technical and commercial
functions
http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/pubs/TPlan/index.htm
T-Plan Applications
Sector / product Aims
• Industrial coding (x3) - Product planning
• Postal services (x10) - Integration of R&D into business; business planning
• Security / access systems - Product planning
• Labelling software - Product planning
• Surface coatings - New product development process
• Medical packaging (x2) - Business reconfiguration
• Automotive sub-systems - Service development & planning
• Power transmission - Business opportunities of new technology
• Railway infrastructure (x3) - Capital investment planning and technology insertion
• National infrastructure - Research programme planning
• Building controls - New product / service opportunity; business reconfiguration
• Road transport - Defining the national research agenda for the sector
• Technical consulting (x6) - New product / service development, strategy
• Automotive / Aerospace - Corporate co-operation and synergy
• Academic (x2) - Strategic planning
• Biochemicals - Research priorities / network development
• Satellite navigation - Research priorities / network development
• Food processing - Research priorities / network development
• Pneumatic systems - Innovation strategy
• Emerging technologies - Research priorities
• Automotive - Innovation opportunities
• Retail (x2) - Business and product strategy
• Construction - Global production strategy
Fast-start TRM process

Standard and Customised process
Roadmapping Integrated
product-technology
Standard process strategic planning
Planning
Planning Roll-out
Roll-out
Customised process
General strategic
planning
Standard T-Plan process

Procedure: 4 half-day workshops
Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Workshop 4
Market Product Technology Roadmapping
• Performance • Product feature • Technology • Linking
dimensions concepts solutions technology
• Market / business • Grouping • Grouping resources to
drivers • Impact ranking • Impact ranking future market
• Prioritisation • Product strategy • Gaps opportunities
• SWOT • Gaps • Gaps
• Gaps
• Setting up • Following on
• Managing the process
the process from the process
Roadmap input data & structure development

Technology
Roadmap time
Business / Market drivers

Business /
Product features
Market
Product / Product features

Technology solutions
Service /
Production
Technology /
Resources
Analysis
Grids
Example Market-Product grid (Softco)
Market Softco
Ranking:
Prioritisation: Major Pharmaceutical: 9 10 7 6 1 2 6 5
5 7 9 6 10 =1 = -1
(scale of 10) CRO: 9 10 10 2 8 4 7 7
Σ Cell scores x Driver priority
1. Time to market of drug
E. Improving bottom line

1 year after release
Market / Normalised: max score = 10
D. Motivation of staff
Business
Pharmaceutical
2. Integrity of trial
C. Time to market
5. Leading edge
Drivers
4. Globalisation
7. Connectivity
8. Future proof
6. Ease of use
3. Cost of trial
A. Reusability
Product
Feature
B. No. 1
Softco
Major
CRO
Concepts
1. Security 5.5 4.8 4.5
2. Validated software 4.7 4.2 1.1
3. Compliance * 8.7 8.3 4.9
4. Services 5.0 4.1 3.8
5. Data management 10.0 10.0 3.0
6. Labelling 9.6 9.9 9.5
7. Global solution ** 5.8 2.5

5.9
8. Flexible implementation 6.8 7.5 10.0
9. Softco requirements 0.7 0.8 2.7
10. User friendly 3.2 4.2 5.2

* 1 for difficulty, 2 for size ** Payback later
Example Product-Technology grid (Softco)
* * * Ranking:
Prioritisation: Major Pharmaceutical: 5.5 4.7 8.7 5.0 10.0 9.6 5.9 6.8 0.7 3.2
- from Grid 1 CRO: 4.8 4.2 8.3 4.1 10.0 9.9 5.8 7.5 0.8 4.2 =1 = -1
(scale of 10) Sofco 4.5 1.1 4.9 3.8 3.0 9.5 2.5 10.0 2.7 5.2
Σ Cell scores x Driver priority
8. Flexible implementation
Normalised: max score = 10
Product
9. Softco requirements
2. Validated software
5. Data management
Feature
Pharmaceutical
7. Global solution
Concepts
10. User friendly

3. Compliance
6. Labelling
4. Services
1. Security
Technology
Softco
CRO
Major
Areas
1. Alliances 7.8 7.6 7.2
2. System architecture 10.0 10.0 10.0
3. Design 7.1 7.2 7.1
4. ‘Soft’ technologies 6.9 6.8 6.5
5. Output technologies 6.4 6.4 6.3
6. Securing technologies 8.6 8.4 7.6

**
7. Core technologies (re-use) 8.3 8.2 7.5
* must have
** -ve re-use past, + re-use future
Example first-cut technology roadmap (Softco)
Year 0 Phase 1 Year 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Year 2 Phase 4 Phase 5 Year 3
Market / Competitor
Competitor
threat? Market
Version 1
release Price: £10
threat Legislation?
Business launch -15K/seat
Database
User Time out Digitally Audit Digital signatured Watermarked escrow TA6
1. Security rights security levels signed labels TA6 trail audit trail TA6 forms & reports Biometric
TA5 TA6 passwords
2.Validated Validated Validated Validated
Software Ver. 1 Ver. 2 Ver. 330
Product Features
Graphic User format-

Protocol Randomised Form TA5 Advanced Enhanced
3. Compliance design module design package printing automation randomisation
representation ting tool
of R&S phrases for forms
Upgrade path
Multi-level for existing User group Global
4. Services training & conference support TA1
users
Billing &
5. Data Validated protocol Multi-language Secure Statistical
inventory
Management design module database archiving analysis
management
TA7 Windows Code 39 & 128 Blinded Label Other bar- TA7
Labelling Printer XML data Label set
6. Labelling libraries independent format
printers: PDF 417 labels design code types libraries
TA2
PS / PCLS / PDF barcodes TA7 module
7. Global Inter-site User-docs EU lang Email Web XML data User-docs Far East TA1
UNICODE security (EU lang) modules notifica- language WAP
Solution enabled import / export (Far East)
TA1 for UI tions modules for UI
TA2 TA1
Windows Multiple
8. Flexible Customisable platform platform
Internet
Implementation support
TA2
support
compatible
9. Company Software TA2

Requirements protection
10. User User Protocol On-line

documentation design wizards tutorials
Friendly
Technology Areas
Database partners Appoint Enhanced

Domain expert Network of Legal ERP
1. Alliances partner contacts expertise
(harmonised phrases
& legislation)
distributors network of
contacts
link
outside UK
CH / JAVA / CORBA TCP / IP
2. Sys. Arch. component architecture CGI / ISAPI
A Platform inde- Modular design
3. Design spec. pendent design UML / OOD
Dev. Mngmnt Validatable Build Develop Enhanced
Test eChem ISO 9000 24 hour Internet
4. ‘Soft’ Tech. Team team GNP procedures from
plan
sales
model
tech. TickIT support updates
development
team stability
stability leader (FDA) source
Report Enhanced
5. Output Tech. generation report generation
Scanning &
Write once
6. Securing Tech. technology
storage of
hand-written forms
Rapid &
7. Core Tech. Pipe ++
Other Raise
£ x million
Recruitment
New TAx = link to Technology
software &
Resources management
building Area x
Group activity -
the bicycle of the future
Biko: Introduction
• Biko, a small traditional but well regarded bicycle manufacturer
has just been taken over by a large sports equipment and
clothing manufacturer, Sportco
• The new owner has requested a technology roadmap outlining

how Biko proposes to develop its market offering over the next
10 years, and if convinced by their business case is willing to
make significant investment
• A preliminary market review and SWOT analysis have resulted

in two areas of potential interest being identified:
1. Power assisted bicycles
2. High performance ‘lifestyle’ bicycles
Biko: Instructions
Read handout & follow step-by-step guidance
• Step 1: Market & Business

• Step 2: Product & Service
• Step 3: Technology
Resources / Technology Product Drivers
Other
Business Market
(Internal) (external)
Now
+2y
+5y
Time
+ 10 y
Feedback
• What lessons have been learnt about roadmapping?
• How would you take it forward from here?

Discussion - getting started

Planning
(customisation checklist)
• Context: scope, focus, aims and resources
• Standard process:
• Roadmap architecture - Follow the guide
• Customised process:
• Process - Creative and collaborative
design activity
• Participants
• Workshop scheduling
• Integration: systems, processes & information
• Preparatory work
Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative process
Focus, scope, aims

Business need Plan
Domain
knowledge
dialogue
Business TRM process

owner owner
Architecture
Process
Implementing roadmapping
Individual planning & discussion
See planning sheet:

– Objectives, scope, stakeholders, architecture, process,
information sources, key issues, next steps
• Individually (or with colleagues) work through ‘planning sheet’

- 10 minutes
• Pull out key points for discussion
Roadmapping success factors

Response (%)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Clear business need
Desire to develop effective business processes

Company culture & politics supported
participation / progress
Right people / functions were involved
Commitment from senior management
Required data / information / knowledge available
Timing of initiative was appropriate
Clear and effective process for developing TRM
Effective tools / techniques / methods
Effective facilitation / training
Other
Source: CTM survey, 1999

Communication roadmaps
• What is the message?

• Who are you communicating to?
• Information representation / graphic design challenge,
drawing on detailed TRM… focus on the ‘story’ and
‘big picture’
Conclusions
Benefits of roadmapping:
• A focus for integrated strategic planning
• Can be applied in a wide range of contexts
• Supports communication and network development
Challenges of roadmapping:
• Not a magic bullet - initially more questions than answers likely
• Maintaining the process - the real benefit lies in its ongoing use
• The process and roadmap typically need to be customised
Review
• Has the workshop met your expectations?
• Will you give roadmapping a try?
• Any questions?
Further support:
• Contact us: Rob Phaal at rp108@eng.cam.ac.uk
• TRM User Group: http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/trmug.htm
Close
Example Biko output

Now +2y +5y Time + 10 y
Business Market
(Ext.)
Trends: leisure, health, disposable income Competition Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.
Drivers
New owner Demonstrator New Range 2nd Generation

(Int.)
- Investment “Design your own bike”
Style Designer look Expand range On-line design
“Super-bike”
Product
Ergonomic Moulded
Comfort Customised frame £500-1000
design seat
Technical Direct drive “Chip-on-bike” Automatic”
Networked Networked
Internet mass customisation
business factory
Technology
design Materials / Ergonomics

mechanics CADCAM Visualisation
Electronics Security Communications
Resources
Alliances: gear / drive; styling; electronics

/ Other
Skills Capital Branding & promotion Sportco

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Centre for Technology Management

UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners

Thursday 9th October 2003, 09:00 - 13:00

• An introduction to the theory and practice

Roadmapping - Planning for the Future

Capital investment / finance

Technology roadmapping process

Time is a key dimension…

What to manufacture? Which products? Which technologies?

Evolution of long range planning approaches

Product-Technology Roadmap Defined Project

1. Market ‘pull’ 2. Technology ‘push’

• Planning • Technology focus

The ‘fast-start’ concept:

Understand Resource Measure: Measure:

Fast-Start Kappel, 2001

Types of roadmap: purpose and format

Generic roadmap - links resources to objectives

• Post Office Research Group

Motorola Roadmap Matrix

Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors

Subcarrier function Stereo Paging Data Maps

IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS

Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence

Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre

Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth

RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION

PRODUCTS Plus: A NEW SERVICE

Lucas roadmaps - a required input to the budget process

Component / Market Trends

Lucas Technology Road-map activity coding

Activity Description Market Trends Addressed

Project Status External Funding Source

Lucas - linking Technology to Business Planning

Post Office Research - communicating & prioritising

New business Bespoke solutions Evolve Global reach

Market Existing products Grow express Timed dated products

Capacity & Evolve

Intelligent transport technologies

Routing & scheduling Network integration

Foresight Vehicle technology roadmapping initiative

• This required identification of market and industry trends and

• The roadmapping process encouraged communication and

Road transport system: key themes

Social Social, economic and

Technology, policy and

Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: architecture

Technical Required and desired technological response,

Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: process

Hybrid, electric and alternatively

Design and manufacturing

Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information

• 10 month duration • More than 130 participants

2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Vision

Example summary roadmap content:

Growing demand for mobility

Social attitudes towards

Increasing concern for health, safety and security

Example summary roadmap content:

Example summary roadmap content:

variety and fuel distribution

Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping

Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping approach