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Contents: Page no:

1. Introduction 2-3
2. Role of Himalayan region 4-5
3. Himalayas environmental problems 6-13
 General information
 1950 Assam Tibet earthquake
 Impact due to earthquake
 Future threat
 1991 Uttarkarshi earthquake
 Damage
 Intensity
4. Climate in Himalayan region 14-25
 General information
 Climatic disasters in Himalayas
 Vulnerable Himalaya: Location and Climate
 Cloudbursts
 Humans responsible for flash-floods and landslides
 Forestfire
 Risk and Vulnerability: The Himalayan Context
 Conclusion
5. Avalanche disasters in Himalayan region 26-33
 Introduction
 Avalanche occurrence and problems
 Classification of snow climate in general
 Classification for snow climate for western Himalaya
 Lower Himalayan Zone or Subtropical Zone
 The Middle Himalayan Zone or Mid Latitudinal Zone
 Upper Himalayan or High Latitudinal Zone
 Analysis for some of the factors influencing avalanche activities in Himalaya
 Avalanche forecast
 Conclusion
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A satellite image showing the arc of the Himalayas

View of the Himalayan ranges

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Introduction
The Himalayas are the highest mountain ranges in the world, and from them flow the major
rivers of Asia. The kingdoms of Nepal and Bhutan are located along the Himalayan ranges,
and the Tibetan plateau lies to their north. Although the Himalayas are nearly impassible,
many peoples have managed the crossing and left traces of their cultures.

Surrounded by high peaks with only a few passes, the plateau of Tibet was home to people
who developed their own, distinct culture, which was highly influenced by Buddhism. That
religion came into Tibet in two waves: from India, Nepal, and China in the seventh century,
and again from India in the eleventh century.

Lifted by the subduction of the Indian tectonic plate under the Eurasian Plate, the Himalayan
mountain range runs west-northwest to east-southeast in an arc 2,400 km (1,500 mi) long.[2]
Its western anchor, Nanga Parbat, lies just south of the northernmost bend of Indus river. Its
eastern anchor, Namcha Barwa, is just west of the great bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River
(upper stream of the Brahmaputra River). The Himalayan range is bordered on the northwest
by the Karakoram and the Hindu Kush ranges. To the north, the chain is separated from the
Tibetan Plateau by a 50–60 km (31–37 mi) wide tectonic valley called the Indus-Tsangpo
Suture.[3] Towards the south the arc of the Himalaya is ringed by the very low Indo-Gangetic
Plain.[4] The range varies in width from 350 km (220 mi) in the west (Pakistan) to 150 km
(93 mi) in the east (Arunachal Pradesh).[5] The Himalayas are distinct from the other great
ranges of central Asia, although sometimes the term 'Himalaya' (or 'Greater Himalaya') is
loosely used to include the Karakoram and some of the other ranges.

The Himalayas are inhabited by 52.7 million people,[5] and are spread across five countries:
Nepal, India, Bhutan, China and Pakistan. Some of the world's major rivers — the Indus, the
Ganges and the Tsangpo-Brahmaputra — rise in the Himalayas, and their combined drainage
basin is home to roughly 600 million people. The Himalayas have a profound effect on the
climate of the region, helping to keep the monsoon rains on the Indian plain and limiting
rainfall on the Tibetan plateau.
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Location map of the Indian Himalayan Region

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Role of the Himalayan region

The Himalayas, or Himalaya, from a mountain range in Asia, separating the plains of the
Indian subcontinent from The Tibetan plateau. The Himalayan range has many of the Earth’s
highest peaks, including the highest, Mount Everest.

The Indian Himalayan Region(IHR) is the section of the Himalayas within India, spanning
ten Indian states(administrative region) namely, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh,
Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura
and hill regions of two states i.e. Assam and West Bengal of Indian Republic. Th region is
responsible for providing water to a large part of the Indian subcontinent and contains various
flora and fauna.

The IHR physiographically starting from the foothills of south(Siwaliks) this mountain range
extends upto Tibetan plateau on the north(Trans-Himalaya). Three major geographical
entities, the Himadri(greater Himalaya), Himachal(lesser Himalaya) and the Siwaliks(outer
Himalaya) extending almost uninterrupted, throughout it’s length are separate by major
geological fault lines. Mighty but older streams like the Indus, Sutlej, Kali and Brahmaputra
have cut through steep gorges to escape into the Great plains and have established their
antecedence.

The northernmost range of mountains are the Karakoram mountains that continue into
Pakistan and China. To the south of Karakoram range lies the Zaskar ranges. Parallel to the
Zaskar ranges lie the Pirpanjal ranges. These three mountain ranges lie parallel to each other
in the north-western part of India, most of it’s area lying in the state of Jamm and Kashmir as
it’s capital Srinagar too.

Some of the highest mountains on earth are found in the region. Many rivers considered holy
like the Ganga and Yamuna flow from the Himalayas.
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Horribly polluted Vishnumati river in Central Kathmandu

Landslide in Arniko Highway in Kantipur

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Himalayas Environmental problems

 General Information:
Hard as it may sound to those overcome by the sheer magnificence of this mountain chain,
the majestic Himalayas are surprisingly vulnerable to both natural processes and man made
ones. The mountain chain is young and has been proved in recent years it is still geologically
active. The Indian landmass continues to move towards the Eurasian landmass as a result of
which the Himalayas rise by a few millimetres every year. Due to this the Himalayas are still
structurally unstable.

The Himalayas also feature a fragile ecosystem. For centuries this ecosystem has remained
delicately balanced and has been responsible for the tremendous biodiversity of the
Himalayas. Only in recent years has the ecosystem been disturbed in various parts due to
processes both man-made and natural.

Man has also been responsible to a large extent for some of the environmental problems
faced by the mountains. As he strives for industrialization, modernization and the so-called
higher standard of living man has disturbed the natural ecosystem of many parts of the world.
The Himalayas have been no exception. Over the centuries pilgrims and explorers have
visited the mountains, however in the past their number were few and the Himalayan
ecosystem, fragile as it is, was able to cope with the effects of human exploration in the areas.
But today, the situation is different. In the last few decades, an intricate network of roads
have been built into the mountains, which have made some of the most remote areas more
easily accessible. This has translated into a tremendous increase in the numbers of people
who visit the mountains every year. The Himalayas are now being exploited to the hilt in
many areas to provide materials for the growing number of forest-based industries. Thus, it is
not a surprise that environmental problems have emerged in the Himalayan region.
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Picture depicting the damage due to earthquake in human populated area

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Map showing the epicentre for 1950 Assam-Tibet earthquake

 1950 Assam-Tibet earthquake:

UTC time – 15/8/1950. 14:09:34
ISC time – 895681
USGS-ANSS – ComCat
Local date – August 15, 1950
Magnitude – 8.6 Mw
Depth – 15Km(9.3mi)
Epicentre – 28.36°N ; 96.45°E
Type – Strike-Slip
Areas affected – Tibet, Assam
Max intensity – XI (Extreme)
Causalities – 4,800

Tibet earthquake also known as the Assam earthquake, occurred on 15 August and had a
moment magnitude of 8.6. The epicentre was located in the Mishmi Hills, known in Chinese
as the Qilinggong Mountains. South of the Kangri Garpo and just east of the Himalayas in the
North East frontier agency part of Assam, India. This area south of the McMahon line and
now known as Arunachal Pradesh is today is disputed between China and India.

Occurring on a Tuesday evening at 7:39 pm Indian standard time, the earthquake was
destructive in both Assam(India) and Tibet(China) and approximately 4800 people were
killed. The earthquake is notable as being the largest recorded quake caused by continental
collision rather than subduction and is also notable from the loud noises produced by the
quake and reported throughout the region.

 Impact due to the earthquake:

The 1950 Assam-Tibet earthquake had devastating effects on both Assam and Tibet.
In Assam 1,526 fatalities were recorded and another 3,300 were reported in Tibet for
a total of approximately 4,800 deaths.
Alterations of relief were brought about by many rock falls in the Mishmil Hills and
surrounding forest regions. In the Arbor Hills, 70 villages were destroyed with 156
causalities due to landslides. Landslides blocked the tributaries of the Brahmaputra. In
the Dibang valley a landslide lake burst without causing damage, but another at
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Subansiri river opened after an internal of eight days and the wave, 7m(23ft) high,
submerged several villages and killed 532 people.

The shock was more damaging in Assam, in term of property loss, than the
earthquake of 1897. In addition to the extreme shaking, there were floods when the
rivers rose high after the earthquake bringing down sand, mud, trees and all kinds of
debris, pilots flying over the meizoseis-mal area reported great changes in
topography. This was largely due to enormous landslides, some of which were
photographed.

In Tibet, Heirrich Harrew reported strong shaking Lhasa and loud cracking noises
from the earth. Aftershocks were felt in Lhasa for days. In Rima, Tibet (modern-day
Zayii Town), Frank Kingdon- ward noted violent shaking, extensive slides and the
rise of the streams, Helen Myers Morse, an American missionary living in Pulao,
northern Burma at the time, wrote letters home describing the main shake, the
numerous aftershocks and of the noise coming out of the earth.

One of the more Westerly aftershocks, a few days later was felt more extensively in
Assam than the main shock, this led certain journalists to believe that the later shock
was bigger and must be the greatest earthquake of all time. This is a typical example
of the confusion between the essential concepts of magnitude and intensity. The
extraordinary sounds heard by kingdon-ward and many others at the times of the
main earthquake have been specially investigated. Seiches were observed as far away
as Norway and England.
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Destruction in Nepal caused by earthquake in 2015

Shake-map of Uttarkarshi earthquake in 1991

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 Future Threat:
An article in science published in response to the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake, calculated that
70 percent of the Himalayas could experience an extremely powerful earthquake. The
prediction came from the area as well as the presumption that since 1950 the medog
earthquake enough slippage has taken place for a large earthquake to occur. In 2015, the
Himalayas as were hit by another large earthquake with an epicentre further west in
Nepal.

 1991 Uttarkarshi Earthquake:

The 1991 Uttarkarshi earthquake (also known as the Garhwal earthquake) occurred at
02:53:16 20 October local time with a moment magnitude of 6.8 and a maximum
Mercalli intensity of IX(violent). This thrust event was instrumentally recorded and
occurred along the main central thrust in the Uttarkarshi (then still part of Uttar Pradesh).
High intensity shaking resulted in the deaths of atleast 768 people and the destruction of
thousands of homes.

UTC time – 1991/10/19, 21:33:14

ISC event – 317038

USGS-ANSS – Comcat

Local Date – 20 October 1991

Local Time – 02:53

Duration - ~45 seconds

Magnitude – 6.8 Mw

Depth – 11.6 km (7mi)

Epicentre – 30.75°N ; 78.88°E

Type – Thrust fault

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Areas affected – India

Total damage - $60 million

Maximum intensity – IX (violent)

Peak acceleration – 31g

Casualties – 768 to 2000 dead

and 1388 to 1800 injured.

 Damage:
Scientists from the Indian Institute a survey of the affected areas between 27 October and 4
November. Their work revealed that more than 300,000 people in 1294 villages were affected
by the shock. Stone masonry homes (that usually supported heavy roofs) fared badly in areas
where high intensity shaking occurred. The United States National Geophysical Data Centre
indicates that 7500 homes were damaged and another 7500 were destroyed while the IITK
report shows that up to 42,400 houses were damaged.

 Intensity:
Jain et at 1992 stated that the shock was generally moderate while further clarifying the
intensities that were observed at specific locations. Ghansyali, Gangotri and Tehri were listed
as experiencing intensity VII(very strong) shaking and Bhatwari, Budhakedar, Krishanpur,
Mahinanda, Maneri and Uttarkarshi were listed as experiencing intensity VIII(severe)
shaking. In a report that documented the study of strong motion recordings of the event. Jain
and Das 1993 clarified that while Bhatwari and Uttarkarshi experienced intensity VIII
shaking at distances of 25 km(16 mi) and 40 km(25mi) respectively, there was a small 20 km
square mile area that experienced a maximum intensity of IX(violent).
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Rainfall in Himalayan region

Geological view of the Himalayas

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Climate in Himalayan regions

 General information:
The vast size, huge altitude range and complex topography of the Himalayas mean they
experience a wide range of climates, from humid subtropical in the foothills to cold, dry
desert conditions on the Tibetan side of the range. For much of Himalayas – that on the south
side of the high mountains, except in the furthest west, the most characteristic feature of the
climate is the monsoon. Heavy rain arrives on the south-west monsoon in June and persists
until September. The monsoon can seriously impact transport and cause major landslides. It
restricts tourism – the trekking and mountaineering season is limited to either before the
monsoon in April/May or after the monsoon in October/November (autumn). In Nepal and
Sikkim, there are often considered to be five seasons: summer, monsoon, autumn (or post-
monsoon), winter and spring.

Using the Köppen climate classification, the lower elevations of the Himalayas, reaching in
mid elevations in central Nepal (including the Kathmandu valley), are classified as Cwa,
Humid subtropical climate with dry winters. Higher up, most of the Himalayas have a
subtropical highland climate (Cwb).

In the furthest west of the Himalayas, in the west of the Kashmir valley and the Indus valley,
the South Asian monsoon is no longer a dominant factor and most precipitation falls in the
spring. Srinagar receives around 723 mm (28 in) around half the rainfall of locations such as
Shimla and Kathmandu, with the wettest months being March and April.

The northern side of the Himalayas, also known as the Tibetan Himalaya, is dry, cold and
generally wind swept particularly in the west where it has a cold desert climate. The
vegetation is sparse and stunted and the winters are severely cold. Most of the precipitation in
the region is in the form of snow during late winter and spring months.
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Local impacts on climate are significant throughout the Himalayas. Temperatures fall by 6.5
°C (11.7 °F) for every 1,000 m (3,300 ft) rise in altitude. This gives rise to a variety of
climates from nearly tropical in the foothills to tundra and permanent snow and ice. Local
climate is also affected by the topography: The leeward side of the mountains receive less
rain while the well exposed slopes get heavy rainfall and the rain shadow of large mountains
can be significant, for example leading to near desert conditions in the Upper Mustang which
is sheltered from the monsoon rains by the Annapurna and Dhaulagiri massifs and has annual
precipitation of around 300 mm (12 in), while Pokhara on the southern side of the massifs has
substantial rainfall (3,900 mm or 150 in a year). Thus although annual precipitation is
generally higher in east than the west, local variations are often more important.

The Himalayas have a profound effect on the climate of the Indian subcontinent and the
Tibetan Plateau. They prevent frigid, dry winds from blowing south into the subcontinent,
which keeps South Asia much warmer than corresponding temperate regions in the other
continents. It also forms a barrier for the monsoon winds, keeping them from traveling
northwards, and causing heavy rainfall in the Terai region. The Himalayas are also believed
to play an important part in the formation of Central Asian deserts, such as the Taklamakan
and Gobi.

 Climatic Disasters in Himalayan region:

Himalaya Mountain is a newest, youngest, and tallest folded mountain system in the world. It
is unstable as tectonic movements are very active. Its fragility and vulnerability can be noticed
from the facts that the entire Himalayan region has been receiving extreme natural calamity.
Climate varies from the valley regions to the highly elevated perpetual snow clad mountain
peaks. Extreme weather conditions are common. They produce climate disasters in throughout
the Himalayan regions. During the recent past, changes in the climatic conditions have been
seen largely due to population growth and as a result of this; large-scale deforestation has been
taken place. The changes in the climatic conditions have not only affected the extreme
environmental events but also affected the daily life of the inhabitants. Climate change impact
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in the Himalaya is considerably high as the studies show and as a result of this climate induced
disasters are on rise during the last decades. High vulnerability of mountain terrain of the
Himalaya further accentuates the climate disasters thus, every inhabitant is risk affected.
Climate data for the last two decades were collected to know about the changes in the climatic
conditions and their impacts on the disaster in the Himalayan regions.

Extreme environmental events are the major source of mounting concern over the world.
During the recent past, the number of people affected by climate disasters - droughts, flash
floods, mass movements, debris-flow, and storms has been rising tremendously. These
disasters have possible links to the climate change. Along with the development on climate
science, the relationship between global warming and weather system outcomes are clearer. It
indicates that climate change will increase the risk of exposure to climate disaster and also
discusses that the trend of climate disasters is rising. In worldwide, between 2000 and 2004, an
average of 326 climate disasters was reported each year. During this period tropical cyclones
were more frequent and effective than in any other years over the previous centuries. Around
262 million people were affected annually during the same period. It was more than double in
the first half of the 1980s. Climate disasters are affecting more and more people across the
world, the overwhelming majority lives in developing countries. On an average annual basis
one in 19 people living in the developing world was affected by a climate disaster. Flooding
affected the lives of some 68 million people in East Asia and 40 million in South Asia (HDR,
2007-08). India is vulnerable to different natural hazards due to its proximity to geo-
dynamically active locales and unique climatic pattern. Both these factors in different
combinations lead to the occurrence of disasters resulting from natural hazards like floods,
earthquakes, droughts, cyclones and landslides in different parts of the country at frequent
intervals. It is estimated that about 60% of landmass of the country is vulnerable to earthquakes
of different magnitudes; about 8% of total area is susceptible to cyclone hazard; about 68% of
the area is drought prone; 12% of area is susceptible to floods, and approximately 15% of total
area of the country is susceptible to landslides. The disaster situation in the country is further
compounded by increased vulnerabilities related to rapidly growing population, unplanned
urbanization and fast-paced industrialization, rapid development in high risk areas,
environmental degradation and climate change (Sharda, n. a., a). Monsoon floods and storms
in India during the 2007 season displaced more than 14 million people and over 1,000 people
lost their lives.
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A bar graph showing growing disasters in Himalayan region

Flash-flood in Himalayan region destroying Vishnupyrag Dam

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 Vulnerable Himalaya: Location and Climate

Longest and tallest folded mountain systems of the world, Himalaya is located in the South
Asian countries, 2400 km long, started from the Pamir’s knot, the world highest dry plateau,
to India, Nepal, Bhutan and Arakan-Yoma mountains of Myanmar. It is also a home of
various fauna and flora, biodiversity hot-spot, and the land of highest rainfall – Mausimgram
(Cherapunji, Meghalaya). Climate varies from sub-tropical to cold frigid. Climate induced
disasters are very common in the entire Himalayan regions. It is highly vulnerable and prone
to climate disaster. It is characterized by fragility of terrain, instability, tectonically active,
and seismically sensitive. Monsoon rain further accentuated intensity of climate disaster. The
rapid retreat of the Himalayan glaciers has consequences for waterrelated hazards, such as
glacier lake outburst floods, and for water stress, as a result of the decline in fresh water
supplies during the lean season. According to the Fourth Assessment report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the incidence and intensity of floods in
the Himalayan region are expected to increase as a result of an increase in precipitation
during the monsoon season and glacial retreat, both following from global warming. This
poses a challenge for reducing the vulnerability of the more than 1.3 billion people living in
the major river basins downstream from the region. It is estimated that every square kilometer
in the fragile Himalaya shows up at least two landslide scars (Bhandari, et al., 1984). Severity
of the problem, as measured by the losses, varies widely from location to location as well as
from time to time. Scientists from the Central Road Research Institute (CRRI) have analyzed
that the landslide hazard is potentially tremendous in the Patalganga Valley of the Garhwal
region of Western Himalaya (Kumar et al., 2005). Climatic conditions in the Himalaya vary
from sub-tropic to perpetual snow. Monsoon rain is quite affective that leads to slop failure,
mass movement, landslide, flash-flood, and debris flow. Every year during the monsoon,
heavy losses of lives and property take place. The people of the region are well adapted with
these situations and they have their own systems of adaptation to climate. To study on the
climate disaster, monthly rainfall data were gathered from Ukhimath area of the Garhwal
region and it is shown in table 1. Rainfall data varies from one season to another and from
year to year. Highest rainfall occurred during the months of June, July, August and
September.
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Flooding after a cloudburst in Himachal

Forest fire in Himalayas

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 Cloudbursts:

Cloudbursts are sudden heavy rainstorm and its downpour. Generally, when clouds
traversing pass over an area of low atmospheric pressure and temperature, vapours are
condensed into raindrops, which fell on the ground by virtue of their weight. However, in
mountains areas clouds are multi-layered. When one layer traversing at higher altitude
enter into a zone of extremely low atmospheric pressure, then suddenly all the vapours
are converted into water simultaneously. This water-column, while falling from the
height, also takes the water from the clouds of other lower layers and rapidly falls on the
earth. This is called cloudburst.

Most of the cloudbursts incidents take place in the Himalayan Mountains and only a few
have been recorded in Extra Peninsular India. Since the major rainstorm zones have
already been identified and demarcated on a national scale, there should be no reason that
people continue to suffer from it. It underscores the inadequacy of our efforts in disaster
mitigation.

One major recent cloudburst event occurred in Himachal Pradesh on 16 August 2003 at
2.30am at Pulia Nala, Kullu district, killing 50 labourers working at an NHPC site.
Another major event occurred on the night of August 10, 2002 in Budha Kedar, Balganga
Valley, Tehri, and Ratnali in Uttar Kashi, both in Uttaranchal. It led to widespread
destruction in 23 villages of Balganga Valley and out of these 4 villages (namely,
Marwari, Meddh, Agunda and Kot) were completely devastated. 19 persons died in these
four villages. In remaining 19 villages (namely, Agar, Koti, Ragasya, Titrona, Niwalgaon,
Toli, Pinswad, Urni, Genwali, Jakhna, Bhigun, Thati, Bisan, Bhaladgaon, Gomphal,
Chani, Padokhan, Sirsot and Sem) though there was no casualty but all suffered from
landslides, land subsidence and cracks in houses
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 Humans responsible for flash-floods and landslides:

Flash floods have little to do with geology. They are related to the rainfall pattern that has
changed considerably over the years due to warming up of the atmosphere. There has
been evidence that with increasing atmospheric temperature, precipitation during the
rainy season is no longer uniform. In summers there is prolonged drought followed by
short spells of heavy rainfall. So quick and vast is the rate of precipitation that there is not
enough time for water to percolate down the soil. To worsen the situation, there is hardly
any tree cover; soil is compacted to the extent that it becomes impermeable. This results
in increased river discharge and flash floods. This is the only cause behind the flash flood
in Uttarkashi in August that the government termed the worst in 30 years. It is entirely
man-made. A river consists of a deep channel, flanked by floodways on either sides,
which are extended by floodplains.

Historically, people avoided floodways for building houses and only did agriculture there.
But decades of human activities have destroyed the geomorphic difference between
floodplains and floodways. Now, there is construction work not only on floodway, but
also close to the river channel. Unlike railway lines and bridges which span the
floodways, roads and bridges get easily washed away because developers are least
concerned about geological structures. Gangotri bridge in Uttarkashi was damaged due to
flash flood in August. First, the channel was restricted by erecting piers on. Then, they
build embankments on both sides of the river to reach from the bank.

The embankments act as dams, whereas the bridges resemble open sluice gates. In
mountainous regions, the developers simply construct culverts or sometimes holes to save
cost. In Uttarkashi, all the construction including roads and bridges has come up on
floodways and terraces. All the new townships coming up on the riverside are on the
floodways. Increasing pressure on land in the mountain region is also the reason for
devastating flash floods. Village residents don’t building houses on river terraces. They
prefer building on the slope. Faulty planning is responsible for such landslides. In the
Himalayan region, it is a standard practice to build a road on the debris of previous
landslides. This saves the cost of digging or cutting the mountain. So good engineers put
pressure on road contractors to build drainage system parallel to the road. But many do
not have such a drainage system for the water to flow down. This causes more landslides.

On August 6, 2010 cloudburst that triggered flash floods and mudslides, claimed about
180 lives, injured about 400 people along with causing widespread damage to public and
private property in Leh region of Jammu and Kashmir State. Weather data of the last five
years in terms of monthly temperature, rainfall, humidity and snowfall reveals that
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cloudburst in Leh may be due to climate change although, this region is rain shadow.
‘After going through the sequence of events of the weather that led to the cloudburst on
August 6, it has been reinforced that the catastrophe was due to prolonged winters being
witnessed in the region’, Leh-based Defense Institute for High Altitude Research
(DIHAR) reports. DIHAR indicates that increased temperature and hot summers in the
plains lead to increased evaporation and subsequent cloud formation in the hills. The
region was witnessing unusual phenomenon of bright sunshine in the June and July
months causing melting of snow and high relative humidity (72%) as compared to
previous years (50%).

 Forestfire:
The youngest mountain ranges of the Himalayas have been assessed as the most
vulnerable stretches of world with regard to forest fires. In 1999, forest-fires in the hills of
Uttaranchal destroyed more than 3,75,000 hectares of forest. The same year, more than
450 cases of forest fire were reported in Himachal Pradesh and by May 1999, more than
80,000 hectares of forests were turned to ashes.

Factors leading to a forest fire can be broadly grouped in three major categories, though
in reality, a big forest fire outbreak is caused from the fractional contribution of many of
these factors

 Risk and Vulnerability: The Himalayan Context

Climate change scenarios provide a framework for identifying structural shifts in weather
systems. How those shifts are transmitted through to human development outcomes is
conditioned by the interplay of risk and vulnerability. Climate generates a distinctive set
of risks. Droughts, floods, storms and other events have the potential to disrupt people’s
lives, leading to losses of income, assets and opportunities. Climate risks are not equally
distributed, but they are widely disbursed. Whereas risk is about exposure to external
hazards over which people have limited control, vulnerability is a measure of capacity to
manage such hazards without suffering a long-term, potentially irreversible loss of
wellbeing. Climate change threats illustrate the distinction between risk and vulnerability.
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The processes by which risk is converted into vulnerability in any country are shaped by
the underlying state of human development, including the inequalities in income,
opportunity and political power that marginalize the poor. Developing countries and their
poorest citizens are most vulnerable to climate change. The broad idea can be reduced to
“some sense of insecurity, of potential harm people must feel wary of-‘something bad’
can happen and ‘spell ruin’. Climate change threats illustrate the distinction between risk
and vulnerability. It is observed that impact of natural disasters is felt more severely by
people who are socio-economically weak because their habitats are located in vulnerable
areas and not designed to withstand the impact of natural disasters (Sharda, n. a., b).
Therefore, the processes of poverty eradication and disaster management are intricately
linked. The people living in the Himalayan region are more vulnerable to climate induced
disasters – avalanches, debris flow, flash floods, landslides, mass movements, etc. Every
year, climate induced phenomenon has its tremendous impacts of the land and people of
the Himalayan region. It has more devastating impact mainly during the monsoon season,
when heavy rain occurs in entire region. Rivers are inundated and roadblocks everywhere.
People of the region suffer from all the way and life disrupted greatly. There are
incidences when many villages swept away by the debris and settlements, forest and
agricultural land damaged and people died at a large scale. Many of the villages are
located on the valley regions, and also on the fragile landscape. Thus, they are highly
vulnerable. Human induced activities such as construction of road, hydropower projects,
mining, and other development activities further accentuated the vulnerability of the
region. The entire Himalayan region is prone to earthquake. History of earthquake depicts
that high magnitude above 8 earthquakes occurred in the horizontal and vertical
expansion of Himalaya which was resulted in large scale casualties of people and loss of
property. In this context, the risk and vulnerability of the region in terms of occurring
earthquake is tremendous.

 Conclusion:
Is climate change implicated in the increase in climate disasters in the Himalayan region?
Direct attribution is impossible. Every weather event is the product of random forces and
systemic factors. However, climate change is creating severe conditions for more extreme
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weather events. More intense storms with higher peak wind speeds and heavier
precipitation are a predictable outcome. The precise role of climate change in driving up
the number of people affected by climate disaster is also open to debate. Social factors
have clearly contributed. Population growth, the expansion of human settlements in
hazardous areas, urban slums perched on fragile hillsides and villages located in flood
zones-and ecological stress have all played a role in adding to risk exposure. However,
climate hazards have also increased. The record shows that droughts in central-west
regions of Indian have become more frequent and protracted. Tropical storms have
increased in intensity. Climate change may not provide a full explanation but it is heavily
implicated. Debates over attribution will continue. As we know that climate science does
not provide certainties. However, uncertainty does not constitute a case for inaction. The
global insurance industry has been forced into a radical reappraisal of the implications of
climate risk for its business models. Across the world, people are being forced to adapt to
emerging climate risks in their everyday lives. For the small-scale marginalized farmers
of the mountainous regions, these risks threaten to become a powerful obstacle to human
development. In the Himalayan region, acute climate disasters always obstacle the well
being of the people and thus risk and vulnerability in this region is quite high in all
respects. There are certain measurements to cope with climate hazards in the fragile
terrain of the Himalayan regions. These include selection of site for construction of
settlements; always avoid heavy construction on the fragile slopes and construction of
earthquake resisted houses.
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Avalanche in Himalayas

This labeled photo-diagram shows the location of the fatal ice avalanche on the 2014 route,
and the revised 2015 route through the Khumbu.
 27

Avalanche disasters in Himalayan region

 Introduction:
Snow avalanches of the Himalaya are known for their massiveness and greater destructive
potential when compared even to the famous avalanches of the Alps, Rockies and the Andes.
However because of the limited interaction between man and the mountains, these avalanches
have till recently not become a serious hazard. With the opening of communications to the
isolated mountain villages, construction of roads through the Himalayan ranges, the problem
of avalanches has assumed considerable importance in our country in the last three decades.
From 1969, the field teams of SASE collected valuable data on avalanches along important
road axes in J&K, HP and Uttaranchal. In the light of this, the paper discusses some aspects
of the avalanche problems in our country.
Snow and avalanche research in India took its roots during early sixties. Though Indian
Himalaya have a very large area which experiences seasonal snow cover and permanent
snow-bed, SASE has oriented its research to study problems related to specific areas of
relevance. Indian Himalaya experiences such a wide diversity in climatic and precipitation
patterns that the snow properties and related avalanche activity assume a wide variation. This
has necessitated orientation of its research programme, which is in slight variance with what
is being followed in Europe and North America.
The avalanche affected area in Indian Himalaya lies in Western Himalaya, Central Himalaya
and North Eastern Himalaya. This area also experiences heavy snowfall and avalanche
activity. The complex nature of terrain, its proximity to sub-tropics, high altitude and heavy
snow precipitation due to Westerly Disturbances warrant special snow and avalanche
research programmes which are specially suited for Indian conditions.

 Avalanche occurrence and problems:

Year after year during the winters depending on the snowfall and its intensities and weather
conditions, several major avalanches come down from the mountain slopes of Pir-Panjal and
Great Himalaya. In India, the avalanche activity is significant in the states of J&K, HP and
Uttaranchal. Avalanches affect all the major roads in these states, several villages and famous
pilgrim centers in the mountains are exposed to the recurring threat.
 28

The avalanche activity is most pronounced in the months of January to March. During some
years even November and December months witness unusual avalanche phenomena.
Problems in our roads in the mountain ranges due to avalanches are indeed very grave. These
arise out of heavy avalanche concentration over a long stretch of important road axes. SASE
has mapped more than five hundred major avalanche paths on various road axes of Himalaya.
Snow avalanche hazard is a problem for some of our famous temple townships like the
famous Badrinath in Uttaranchal and Triloknath in HP. Villages in all the three states of J&K,
HP and Uttaranchal are also exposed to avalanche hazard. Maximum damage is caused by
climax avalanches, which come in a big way when they are least anticipated. During 1978-79
many villages in all the three states were badly hit by the unprecedented activity. In
Uttaranchal, Bamni village near Badrinath was razed to ground. In the Lahaul District of HP,
several villages were wiped off leaving a trail of death and desolation.

 Classification of snow climate in general:

For the purpose of classifying the avalanche activity with respect to weather pattern,
McClung and Schaerer (1993) have classified the avalanche areas into two categories, as
Maritime and Continental. As per them, relatively heavy snowfall and mild temperatures
characterize the maritime snow climate. Avalanche formation takes place during or
immediately following storms, with failures occurring in the new snow near the surface.
Prediction of such types of avalanches based on snow observations is fairly accurate.
On the other hand, continental snow climate is characterized by relatively less
snowfall, cold temperatures and the locations are considerably inland from the coastal areas.
Snow cover is relatively shallow and often unstable due to persistence of structural
weaknesses. The avalanche frequency is generally low and the low temperatures generally
allow structural weaknesses to persist for longer duration. Prediction of such avalanches is
rather complex and requires continuous monitoring and evaluation.

 Classification for snow climate for western Himalaya:

From climate and avalanche activity point of view, Sharma and Ganju (1999) have classified
the Western Himalaya in three zones as, Lower Himalayan Zone or Subtropical Zone, Middle
Himalayan Zone or Mid Latitudinal Zone and Upper Himalayan Zone or High latitudinal
Zone as shown in figure 1 . A brief description of each of them is given below:

 Lower Himalayan Zone or Subtropical Zone:

This zone could be classified as the zone of warm temperature, high precipitation and short
winter periods of three months. The precipitation is generally concentrated between
December-March with the periods before and after experiencing wet snow precipitation or
rains. The snow cover very soon changes into isothermal snow pack (Sharma, 2000).
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Terrain and Meteorology of Indian Himalaya

 30

The avalanche activity is quite high, with most of the avalanches triggering during snowfall
as direct action avalanches due to excessive overburden, or within 24 hours after a major
snowfall on a clear sunny day. The peak winter avalanches are generally moist slab
avalanches and late winter avalanches are melt avalanches (thaw avalanches) containing
snow, mud and stones.
The mountainous areas falling in this category are the Pir Panjal range in Jammu and
Kashmir and lower altitudes on the windward side of the same range in Himachal Pradesh.
These areas have tree line up to 3000 m and are heavily populated because of prevalence of
pleasant climatic conditions.

 The Middle Himalayan Zone or Mid Latitudinal Zone:

The middle Himalayan zone is characterised by the high mountain peaks and numerous
glaciers. The terrain is rugged and is generally devoid of vegetation except in a few preferred
areas where slopes up to 3000 m are sparsely forested. The zone has maximum avalanche
slopes in 3500 - 5300 m range.
The areas falling in this zone are windward side of the Great Himalayan range in
Jammu and Kashmir and upper reaches of Pir Panjal range in Himachal Pradesh. This zone is
sparsely populated by virtue of being rugged, cold and mostly glaciated. This range receives
good amount of total snowfall during winter, 80% of which is through moderate snow spells
of 20-80 cm. Entire middle Himalayan range receives dry snow between mid December and
end January. The rise in temperature from mid February onwards generally moistens fresh
snowfall and after March the fresh snowfall is often accompanied with light rain or wet snow
precipitation. Severe wind activity redistributes snow from avalanche slopes very frequently
in this zone.
Severe avalanche activity is reported in this range throughout the winter. The massive
slab avalanches from drift loaded slopes are also observed. Thaw avalanche activity is also
observed from a few slopes in the months of April and May (Sharma, 2000).

 Upper Himalayan or High Latitudinal Zone:

The average height of this zone is about 5000 m and it houses some of the longest glaciers of
the world. The areas falling in this category are a few slopes in the leeward side of the Great
Himalayan range (Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh), Zanskar range and
Karakoram range.
This part of the Himalaya is very thinly populated. The climatic conditions at some places in
winter are closer to polar conditions. Snowfall in this zone is generally scanty but it is
extended almost throughout the year. The snowfall is mostly dry and bonds poorly with the
glaciated surface or with old snow. The total precipitation as well as the precipitation
intensity remains low in this region. However, whatever little precipitation that takes place
 31

remains for longer duration till the melt season starts in May. Since snow on slopes remains
mostly loosely bonded, the redistribution due to wind activity takes place very frequently.
Avalanches occur from steep slopes in this region, however, their frequency is not very high.
Since the ground conditions are not conducive to anchor the snow pack, avalanches from
glaciated and steep rocky surfaces start with as little as 30-40 cm of fresh snow. In certain
areas delayed action avalanches are also observed (Sharma, 2000).

 Analysis for some of the factors influencing avalanche

activities in Himalaya:

(a) Terrain Characteristics

The terrain characteristics of avalanche slopes influence to a great extent the formation and
release of avalanches. The extent of catchment area, its shape, size, orientation and elevation;
the convexities and concavities of the slope are some of the factors that contribute to
determine the type and magnitude of an avalanche. High elevation starting zones will
accumulate and maintain a deep winter snow pack and therefore have the potential for
releasing large volume of avalanches.
Sunny south facing slopes generally witness direct action avalanches. At the same time
consolidation is also faster on these slopes. These slopes are also the scene of large wet snow
and spring avalanches. Sudden drop in the avalanche track can lead to powder avalanches and
reach speeds as high as 120 metre/sec.

(b) Snowfall and snowfall intensities

It is known that more than any other parameter snowfall quantity and snowfall intensity
influence avalanche triggering in a big way. The accepted fact is that heavy snowfall years
need not necessarily be heavy avalanche years. This is where other factors like the rate of
loading of slopes, the layer structure of snow cover, the temperature regime and wind come
into play.
At most of the avalanche slopes in the Himalaya, a standing snow of about 60 cms is
sufficient to cover all ground irregularities. Once the slope is primed with this much snow,
further buildup will slowly add to the overburden pressure and consequent snow cover
instability. Average snowfall intensities of about 3 cms/hr and above with more than 40 to 60
cms of snowfall in 24 hrs can create conditions favorable for avalanching in our country.
(c) Role of TG metamorphism
Negative temperature gradient in a snow cover is observed to be playing a major role in
influencing the pattern of avalanches in any particular winter. A positive contributing factor
for this metamorphism to actively proceed appears to be the December snowfall. In years,
where December snowfall is scanty around 25 cms and with continuous clear days for a
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fortnight under very low temperature conditions, the process of TG metamorphism is likely to
dominate in the layers resulting in the formation of a weak and fragile depth hoar layer.

(d) Weather
Both the temperature regime and wind speeds and direction have an influence on the
avalanche activity. Generally during the snowfall the wind is calm. But a day after the
snowfall, heavy winds of speeds as high as 80 to 100 kms/hr blow over the avalanche slopes
contributing to excessive snow accumulation on some slopes.

 Avalanche forecast:
For covering the large area, we follow the method of process oriented approach to avalanche
forecasting. However, for specific areas where we have a dense network of observatories and
where winter movements are too frequent, we are in the process of developing some
numerical techniques for achieving higher accuracy for avalanche forecasting.

SASE uses an expert system for the Chowkibal-Tangdhar road-axis, which was developed
with the help of an expert shell, C-Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). The
rules are formed with 28 snow-met and snow profile variables derived from seven winters
data of an observatory situated on the axis (Naresh et. al. 1999). The classification of winters
directly refers to the variation of the snow and meteorological conditions from early winter to
late winter. This has led to the development of rules based on the variables for each winter
month starting from December to April. The site-wise rules, which deal with the release of
avalanches, can be termed as a sub-set of rules that control the avalanche days. Therefore,
these rules are activated only when a day is declared as an avalanche day by the main set of
rules.
The rule base consists of 358 rules. Out of these 173 rules are decision rules. The model
generates avalanche goals for separate avalanche sites with separate possibility values based
on a given day’s fact set. In this way, 24-hour forecasts are generated by the expert system.
We are also utilising the numerical technique of Nearest Neighbour Method for avalanche
forecast. This technique involves the comparison of current day’s snow-met condition with
that of past days’ to select a set of days having most similar characteristics. Forecaster then
analyses the events associated with each selected day and draws an inference about the
likelihood of event that may take place on the current day under the prevailing snow-met
condition. This technique is extensively being used to predict avalanches of a highly
avalanche prone glaciated region in Upper Himalayan zone in Karakoram Range. The data
collected at 0830 hrs each day is used for calculations. Having analysed the events associated
with each selected day, site-wise prediction is then made in terms of probability.
 33

 Conclusion:

Major avalanches come down every year in the Himalaya affecting life and property and
communications. Avalanche activity is most pronounced in the month of February and
March. The avalanches come down in waver from avalanche slopes every winter as frequent
as three to four times. The avalanche are predominantly ‘loose snow’ type with slab and
powder avalanches also being observed. The avalanche problem in some of our roads is very
grave and need sustained and dedicated work for its solution. The terrain characteristics of
the avalanche slopes in India are the sternest and most conducive to release of massive
avalanches. In the years of low December snowfall and the appearance of TG layer,
accumulation on the ground of about 100 cms of snow at the observatory site may present
limiting condition for slope stability in some locations. Any additional snowfall of about 50
cms or more can trigger large-scale avalanche activity. Since avalanche release is a complex
subject and is an end product of several factors, these observations should be considered as
application to some specific situation warranting more detailed studies at different locations