Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam and the Second Trump-
Kim Summit
January 23, 2019

We request your analytical input into issues related to the forthcoming Trump-Kim
second summit.
Our questions are:
Q1. What does consideration of Hanoi as a possible venue for the second summit
between President Trump and Chairman Kim tell us about Vietnam’s role and position
in the international community, and in particular, what does it tell us about Vietnam’s
relations with the United States and North Korea?
ANSWER: The fact that Vietnam is being considered as one of three possible venues
for the second summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim is a legacy of
Vietnam’s long-standing policy of “diversifying and multilateralizing” its foreign policy
and being “a reliable partner and friend to all.”
Vietnam is trusted by the United States and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
(DPRK), as well as by stakeholders China and South Korea, as a neutral party that has
the experience and capacity to host a high-level summit of government leaders.
Vietnam’s successful hosting of the APEC Summit in 2017 is an example of this.
The United States highly valued Vietnam’s non-permanent membership on the UN
Security Council in 2008-09 and its principled support for non-proliferation and
counter—terrorism. Vietnam has been singled out by the Trump Administration as a
potential strategic partner in its U.S. National Security Strategy (2017) and National
Defense Strategy (2018). The visit to Hanoi last year by Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo immediately after his visit to Pyongyang was an indication that the U.S. felt
Vietnam could play some role. Pompeo hailed Vietnam’s model of development and
recommended that North Korea study it.
The DPRK trusts Vietnam because a decade ago Vietnam hosted quiet talks between
Japan and North Korea on the family reunion issue. North Korea has from time to time
sent students and working missions to Vietnam to study its reform program and
opening up under the banner of doi moi. This past year Vietnam received a high-level
envoy from the DPRK and reportedly extended an invitation for Chairman Kim to pay
an official visit to Vietnam.
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China should have no objections to a summit meeting being held in Vietnam because
Beijing and Hanoi share convergent views on denuclearization. Both voted for UN
sanctions and both also support a dialogue between North Korea and the United
States. South Korea has particularly good relations with Vietnam.
Vietnam is all the more valued because it will be ASEAN Chair in 2020 and is on course
to be re-elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for the
20120-21 term. Denuclearization on the Korean peninsula will be a protracted process
and Vietnam as ASEAN Chair and as a non-permanent member of the Security Council
can play a diplomatic role during this period and after.
Q2. If Vietnam is selected as the venue for the second U.S.-North Korea summit, how
will this impact on Vietnam’s economy and diplomacy?
ANSWER: If Vietnam is selected it will gain enormous prestige in the eyes of the
international community as a positive contributor to global and regional security. This
will open diplomatic opportunities for Vietnam as it assumes the chairmanship of
ASEAN and joins the UN Security Council. Vietnam’s diplomatic influence will be
enhanced because all major powers will have an interest in seeing that Vietnam
remains an independent player on the world scene.
The economic benefits to Vietnam are likely to be indirect, that is, it is in the interests
of the U.S., DPRK, China and the ROK that Vietnam remain stable and continues to be
one of the region’s fastest growing economies. In other words, there is an incentive
not to adopt policies that harm Vietnam. This may give some leverage to Vietnam in
its negotiations with the Trump Administration about ending tariffs on Vietnamese
shrimp, catfish and steel and aluminum.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam and the Second Trump-Kim Summit,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 23, 2019. All background briefs are
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.