Indonesia Company Guide

Bumi Serpong Damai

Version 2 | Bloomberg: BSDE IJ | Reuters: BSDE.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

DBS Group Research . Equity 31 May 2016

BUY Leader in landbank game

Last Traded Price: Rp1,820 (JCI
JCI : 4,836.03)
Price Target : Rp2,100 (15% upside)
Potential Catalyst: More acquisitions
Where we differ: Our top pick in property sector
Analyst
Edward Ariadi Tanuwijaya +6221 3003 4932
edward.tanuwijaya@id.dbsvickers.com
What’s New
• Continue to gear up for potential acquisitions...
• ...but balance sheet remains relatively strong
• Decent marketing sales growth
• Maintain our BUY call on the counter
Price Relative
Rp
2,255.0
2,055.0
Maintain our BUY call. We tweaked our RNAV assumptions by
1% to Rp3,645/sh (from Rp3,626/sh previously) to reflect the
latest marketing sales achievement, latest landbank & project
value and expected gearing (due to upcoming debt issuance).
We adjust our FY16/17F earnings by (-21%)/(-26%) given the
expected slower revenue recognition, as we have witnessed in
1Q16. No changes in our TP, which implies 15% upside from
the current level.
Continue to gear up for potential acquisitions. On 16 May
2016, BSDE announced that it plans to raise Rp3tr in stages
through IDR bonds issuance. In the initial stage, BSDE plans to
gather up to Rp1.5tr with two series; 5-year tenor (9% rate)
and 7-year tenor (9.25% rate). On top of loan facilities
repayment (switching from floating to fixed rate), we believe it
is raising funds with the intention to acquire either investment
properties or landbank when the opportunity arises.
Decent marketing sales growth and relatively strong balance
sheet
Relative Index
Our marketing sales forecast is conservative with 5%/8%/14%
207 growth in FY16/17/18F. This should translate into decent
187

1,855.0 167
sustainable earnings growth beyond 2016 too. BSDE also
1,655.0 147 possesses a relatively strong balance sheet (with 9% net
1,455.0 127

1,255.0 107
gearing as of end-1Q16, aided by its rich cash position) despite
1,055.0 87 being aggressive in fund raising (both debt and equity) for the
855.0 67
May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 past two years.
Bumi Serpong Damai (LHS) Relative JCI INDEX (RHS)

Valuation:
Forecasts and Valuation
FY Dec (Rp m) 2015A
2015A 2016F
2016F 2017F
2017F 2018F
2018F
Our target price of Rp2,100 is at a 44% discount to our base-
Revenue 6,210 6,520 7,024 8,040 case RNAV (based on its adjusted 8-year average discount to
EBITDA 3,094 3,307 3,583 4,088 RNAV). BSDE is currently trading at a 50% discount to RNAV
Pre-tax Profit 2,715 2,681 3,019 3,595 (close to 8-year average of 52%) and 15x FY16F PE (at around
Net Profit 2,140 2,033 2,307 2,766
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,999 2,033 2,307 2,766
+1SD of its mean forward PE).
Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (45.7) 1.7 13.5 19.9 Key Risks to Our View:
EPS (Rp) 111 106 120 144 Slower take-
take-up at BSDE’s launches. Weaker property
EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 104 106 120 144 affordability, potential increase in interest rate and stricter
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (48) 2 13 20
Diluted EPS (Rp) 111 106 120 144
implementations of high-rise developments could lead to
Net DPS (Rp) 15.0 5.00 10.6 12.0 delays in its launch pipeline and cause marketing sales to miss
BV Per Share (Rp) 979 1,080 1,190 1,321 our expectations.
PE (X) 16.4 17.2 15.2 12.7
PE Pre Ex. (X) 17.5 17.2 15.2 12.7 At A Glance
P/Cash Flow (X) 88.0 16.2 10.9 8.5 Issued Capital (m shrs) 19,247
EV/EBITDA (X) 12.7 12.1 11.1 9.4 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 35,029 / 2,567
Net Div Yield (%) 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 Major Shareholders (%)
P/Book Value (X) 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 Paraga Artamida PT (%) 26.6
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.0 0.1 0.0 CASH
Ekacentra Usahamaju PT (%) 26.5
ROAE (%) 12.5 10.3 10.6 11.4
Sereasi Niaga Sakti (%) 3.1
Earnings Rev (%): (21) (26) N/A
Free Float (%) 35.4
Consensus EPS (Rp
Rp):
Rp : 134 148 161
Other Broker Recs: B: 24 S: 2 H: 1 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 4.1
ICB Industry : Real Estate / Real Estate Investment & Services
Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES

ed:CK / sa:MA
Company Guide
Bumi Serpong Damai

WHAT’S NEW BSDE marketing sales: BSD City township to remain the
Leader in landbank game largest contributor
Modest revenue recognition. We expect decent revenue CAGR 100%
90%
of 9% over 2015-2018F, half the growth pace seen between 80%
2012 and 2015. This is mainly contributed by slower marketing 70%
60%
sales growth (which has been minimal in the past two years).
50%
We expect marketing sales to slide 2% y-o-y this year given the 40% 81% 75% 76%
69%
expectations of slow demand in the property market before 30% 65%
20%
recovering modestly in 2017. The current trend shows that
10%
developers are counting on better marketing sales in 2H to 0%
achieve their full-year target. BSD City township will remain as 2013
BSD City
2014
Grand Wisata
2015 2016F 2017F
Legenda Wisata
the most significant contributor for marketing sales with more Kota Wisata Taman Permata Buana Epicentrum
Banjar Wijaya Balikpapan Others
than 60% contribution of total marketing sales.
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Stable and high margins given stable revenue mix going
Revenue breakdown and stable GP margins trend
forward. BSDE should maintain its GP margins at more than
7,000 Rpbn 76%
70%, as a large portion of its sales will still be derived from its
6,000 74%
core product residential township (mainly its flagship BSD City
township) going forward. 72%
5,000
70%
4,000
More debt issuance expected... BSDE plans to continue to gear 68%
up as it is seeing some opportunities to grow inorganically 3,000
66%
through either investment property or landbank acquisitions. 2,000
64%
On 16 May 2016, BSDE announced that it plans to raise Rp3tr
1,000 62%
in stages through IDR bonds issuance. In the initial stage, BSDE
0 60%
plans to gather up to Rp1.5tr with two series; 5-year tenor 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(9% rate) and 7-year tenor (9.25% rate). 80% of proceeds will Development sales Rental Hotel
Service charge Others GP Margin (RHS)
be utilised to acquire landbank and build infrastructure in the
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
BSD City area, while the rest is reserved for working capital.
Summary of assumption changes
...but balance sheet to remai
remain relatively strong. The aggressive BSDE
fund-raising (both debt and equity) for the past two years has FY15A FY16F FY17F
pushed its balance sheet strength but it is still in a manageable Mktg. Sales Now 6,757 6,648 7,160
in Rpbn Prev 7,305 7,871
net debt position given the rich cash position. BSDE’s net
Chg (%) -9% -9%
gearing as of end- 1Q16 is at 9%.
Revenue Now 6,210 6,520 7,024
in Rpbn Prev 7,288 8,158
Maintain BUY call. We bump up our RNAV assumptions by 1%
Chg (%) -11% -14%
to Rp3,645/sh (from Rp3,626/sh previously) to reflect the latest
Net profit Now 2,140 2,033 2,307
marketing sales achievement, latest landbank & project value
in Rpbn Prev 2,561 3,117
and expected gearing (due to upcoming debt issuance). We Chg (%) -21% -26%
adjust our FY16/17F earnings by (-21%)/(-26%) given the RNAV Now 3,645
expected slower revenue recognition, as we have witnessed in in Rp/sh Prev 3,626
1Q16. No changes in our TP, which implies 15% upside from Chg (%) 1%
the current level. TP Now 2,100
in Rp/sh Prev 2,100
Chg (%) 0%
Rec Now Buy
Prev Buy
Source: DBS Vickers

ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES

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 Company Guide
Bumi Serpong Damai

BSDE: RNAV summary

BSDE portfolio Stake owned Landbank area (ha) RNAV

Investment properties
Wisma BII Jakarta, Surabaya, Medan 60% 604
Plaza BII Tower II & III Jakarta 63% 1,430
Le Grandeur Mangga Dua 85% 514
Le Grandeur Balikpapan 85% 168
DP Semarang Mall 100% 268
Rasuna Epicentrum Walk 100% 297
Stakes in Plaza Indonesia 34% 5,133

Commercial (ITCs) 89% 2,186

Investment & Commercial Properties Total Surplus/(Deficit) (Rpbn) - 1 10,600

Planned development
BSD City 100% 1,750 25,186
Grand Wisata, Bekasi 46% 580 499
Legenda Wisata, Cibubur 85% 15 14
Kota Bunga, Cipanas 85% 16 5
Banjar Wijaya, Tangerang 89% 40 259
Taman Permana Buana, West Jakarta 68% 10 83
Kota Wisata 85% 147 552
Grand City, Balikpapan 100% 217 982

High-
High-rise developments
Kuningan Apartment 100% 3 2,262

Raw landbank
BSD City - Phase 3 100% 1,674 29.774
Benowo, Surabaya 68% 287 604
Duri Pulo, Central Jakarta 85% 15 668
Lenteng Agung, South Jakarta 85% 5 24
MT Haryono, South Jakarta 36% 1 29

Landbank surplus value (Rpbn) - 2 60,940

FY16F Net cash (debt) - in Rpbn - 3 (1,379)

RNAV (1+2+3) (Rpbn) 70,160

Fully diluted share base (bn) 19.247
RNAV per share (Rp) 3,645
Source: DBS Vickers

ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES

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Company Guide
Bumi Serpong Damai

Marketing sales (Rpbn)

CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH
7,754
7,160
6,790 6,648
6,713 6,377
Earnings Drivers:
5,594
Marketing sales achievement
4,475
Property developers recognise non-recurring revenue from
3,356
marketing sales in the prevailing years. We expect revenue to
2,238
grow by a modest CAGR of 9% over 2015-18F given that
1,119
marketing sales grew by a CAGR of 18% over 2011-15, and are 0
expected to grow by a CAGR of 4% over 2015-18F. 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

BSD City still has 3,000ha of landbank (good for another 25-30 Sales Trend
Rp bn
years of development), and that will remain the major driver of 8,000 20.0%
18.0%
marketing sales going forward. We expect BSD City to continue 7,000
16.0%
to contribute more than 60% of total marketing sales, albeit 6,000
14.0%
5,000 12.0%
slipping going forward with the emergence of other projects.
4,000 10.0%
3,000 8.0%
6.0%
BSDE has also started to expand outside Greater Jakarta with 2,000
4.0%
ventures in East of Indonesia cities such as Benowo (East Java), 1,000 2.0%
0 0.0%
Balikpapan and Samarinda (East Kalimantan). 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Total Revenue Revenue Growth (%) (YoY)

Growing recurring revenue
revenue from investment properties
BSDE generated c.15% of its consolidated revenue from its Profitability Trend
Rp bn
investment properties such as retail malls, hotel and office
leases. The recent addition of several investment properties 4,033

suggests BSDE intention to beef up the portion to c.20% over

3,533
the long term to ensure earnings sustainability.
3,033

Better revenue mix will lead to better margins

BSDE’s revenues are still heavily reliant on the sale of landed 2,533

residential houses which had commanded high gross profit

2,033
margins (>70%) in the past two years. We expect consolidated 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

gross profit margins to stay above 70% for the considerable Operating EBIT Pre tax Profit Net Profit

future as there will be no significant changes to BSDE’s revenue

Margins Trend
mix.
69.0%
64.0%
Good control of operating costs 59.0%

BSDE has been able to keep SG&A expenses (as a % of revenue) 54.0%
49.0%
under control, as it needs to juggle the cost and benefits of 44.0%

boosting property demand during the current stale market. 39.0%

34.0%
Good control of SG&A expenses is crucial to maintain 29.0%
2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
profitability in this challenging period.
Operating Margin % Net Income Margin %

Disc to RNAV
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Average 52%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-11

Jun-12

Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-15
Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES

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 Company Guide
Bumi Serpong Damai

Leverage & Asset Turnover (x)

Balance Sheet: 0.45 0.3

Healthy balance sheet despite gearing up 0.40

BSDE had been in a net cash position from 2008 to 2013, as 0.35 0.3
0.30
strong cash generation outpaced annual capex requirements.
0.25
The aggressive fund-raising (for the opportunistic purpose of 0.20
0.2

either investment properties or landbank acquisition) has 0.15

boosted its balance sheet strength but it is still in a manageable 0.10
0.2

net debt position (9% net gearing as of end-1Q16). 0.05

0.00 0.1
2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
Exposure to US$ debt balanced by US$ holding Gross Debt to Equity (LHS) Asset Turnover (RHS)

BSDE’s balance sheet is exposed to USD/IDR volatility after the

Capital Expenditure
issuance of 5-year US$225m bonds (at 6.75% annual coupon Rpbn
Rpm
rate), which represents 50% of its interest-bearing debt. 3,000.0

However, BSDE’s large cash position enables it to have sufficient 2,500.0

US$ in cash balance to lessen accounting non-cash forex 2,000.0

burden. 1,500.0

1,000.0
Share Price Drivers: 500.0
Marketing sales achievement and pipeline
0.0
Marketing sales achievement is a good indicator for all 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F

Indonesia property developers (including BSDE) as it is a leading Capital Expenditure (-)

indicator of revenue generation over the next 2-3 years ROE (%)
(depending on the revenue recognition). 30.0%

25.0%
Key Risks:
20.0%
Stricter regulations for high-
high-rise developments. The plot ratio
approval and balanced ratio rules, when strictly implemented, 15.0%

could potentially slow property demand. Liquidity tightening 10.0%

could dampen demand further.
5.0%

Potential interest rate hike. Property demand is sensitive to and 0.0%

2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F
is negatively correlated to interest-rate movements.
Forward PE Band (x)
Exposure to US$, both financially (i.e. debt in balance sheet) (x)
and operationally (i.e. higher material costs, especially for high- 21.7
+2sd: 20.5x
19.7
rise projects with higher US$-linked items) is a risk if the IDR
17.7
weakens against the US$. 15.7
+1sd: 16.4x

13.7
Avg: 12.3x
Strict implementation of potential revisions to housing 11.7
9.7
development balance ratio (for low-end, mid-range and luxury -1sd: 8.3x
7.7
houses). If such revisions are implemented strictly and 5.7

retroactively, this could potentially mean additional costs for 3.7 -2sd: 4.2x
May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16
property developers and more complicated property
development planning. PB Band (x)
(x)
4.7
Company Background
4.2
BSDE is Indonesia's largest landed residential property
3.7
developer. Its core project is the development of an integrated +2sd: 3.42x
3.2
satellite city 15km west of Jakarta. BSDE has enlarged its +1sd: 2.9x
2.7
investment property portfolio after consolidating DUTI, SMT
Avg: 2.38x
and SMW. 2.2
-1sd: 1.87x
1.7
-2sd: 1.35x
1.2
May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES

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Company Guide
Bumi Serpong Damai

Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2014A
2014A 2015A
2015A 2016F
2016F 2017F
2017F 2018F
2018F
Marketing sales 6,377 6,790 6,648 7,160 7,754

Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2014A
2014A 2015A
2015A 2016F
2016F 2017F
2017F 2018F
2018F Land, houses, shophouses remain
Revenues (Rpbn) the revenue driver with more than
Land, house, shophouses, 4,265 4,802 5,640 6,089 7,047 90% contribution
industrial
Land andestates
strata title 356 263 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rental 581 722 375 404 436
Hotel 103 82.1 147 154 162
Others 102 104 109 115 121
Total 5,572 6,210 6,520 7,024 8,040
Gross Profit (Rpbn)
Land, house, shophouses, 3,145 3,491 4,061 4,384 5,074
industrial
Land andestates
strata title 146 142 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rental 510 637 331 357 384
Hotel 63.6 49.8 88.1 92.5 97.1
Others 102 104 109 115 121
Total 4,132 4,638 4,808 5,178 5,917
Gross Profit Margins (%)
Land, house, shophouses, 73.7 72.7 72.0 72.0 72.0
industrial
Land andestates
strata title 40.9 54.1 N/A N/A N/A
Generating more than
Rental 87.7 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.2 70% margins
Hotel 62.1 60.7 60.0 60.0 60.0 consistently
Others 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Total 74.1 74.7 73.7 73.7 73.6

Income Statement (Rpbn)

FY Dec 2014A
2014A 2015A
2015A 2016F
2016F 2017F
2017F 2018F
2018F
Revenue 5,572 6,210 6,520 7,024 8,040
Cost of Goods Sold (1,440) (1,572) (1,712) (1,846) (2,122)
Gross Profit 4,132 4,638 4,808 5,178 5,917
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (1,500) (1,737) (1,891) (2,037) (2,331)
Operating Profit 2,632 2,901 2,918 3,142 3,586
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (32.6) (50.4) 97.8 105 121
Associates & JV Inc 1,667 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (99.2) (324) (383) (275) (160)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 140 141 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pre-
Pre-tax Profit 4,306 2,715 2,681 3,019 3,595
Tax (310) (364) (370) (398) (452)
Minority Interest (176) (212) (277) (315) (377)
Preference Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Profit 3,821 2,140 2,033 2,307 2,766
Net Profit before Except. 3,681 1,999 2,033 2,307 2,766
EBITDA 4,397 3,094 3,307 3,583 4,088
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) (3.0) 11.4 5.0 7.7 14.5
EBITDA Gth (%) 33.2 (29.6) 6.9 8.4 14.1
Opg Profit Gth (%) (9.6) 10.2 0.6 7.7 14.2
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 41.8 (45.7) 1.7 13.5 19.9
Margins & Ratio
Gross Margins (%) 74.1 74.7 73.7 73.7 73.6
Opg Profit Margin (%) 47.2 46.7 44.7 44.7 44.6
Net Profit Margin (%) 68.6 34.5 31.2 32.8 34.4
ROAE (%) 29.9 12.5 10.3 10.6 11.4
ROA (%) 15.0 6.7 5.6 6.1 6.9
ROCE (%) 11.9 9.3 8.2 8.6 9.4
Div Payout Ratio (%) 10.2 7.6 4.5 10.0 10.0
Net Interest Cover (x) 26.5 9.0 7.6 11.4 22.4
Source: Company, DBS Vickers

ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES

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 Company Guide
Bumi Serpong Damai

Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Rpbn)

FY Dec 1Q2015
1Q2015 2Q2015
2Q2015 3Q2015
3Q2015 4Q2015
4Q2015 1Q2016
1Q2016

Revenue 1,624 1,743 1,266 1,576 1,105

Cost of Goods Sold (343) (513) (318) (397) (280)
Gross Profit 1,281 1,230 948 1,179 825
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (358) (450) (483) (447) (368)
Operating Profit 924 780 465 732 457
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 58.8 11.6 64.7 (185) 8.50
Associates & JV Inc 3.90 (3.4) 37.1 10.1 14.3
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (61.6) (24.1) (111) (127) (110)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 10.6 10.9 (10.5) 130 (7.2)
Pre-
Pre-tax Profit 936 776 446 561 364
Tax (91.1) (97.5) (73.8) (101) (66.4)
Minority Interest (48.8) (57.4) (57.5) (48.1) (38.3)
Net Profit 795 620 314 410 258
Net profit bef Except. 785 609 324 280 266
EBITDA 987 789 568 557 481

Growth
Revenue Gth (%) (2.5) 7.3 (27.3) 24.5 (29.9)
EBITDA Gth (%) (55.3) (20.1) (28.1) (1.8) (13.7)
Opg Profit Gth (%) 24.1 (15.6) (40.4) 57.5 (37.5)
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (61.4) (22.4) (46.8) (13.6) (5.2)
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 78.9 70.6 74.9 74.8 74.7
Opg Profit Margins (%) 56.9 44.7 36.7 46.4 41.4
Net Profit Margins (%) 49.0 35.5 24.8 26.0 23.4

Balance Sheet (Rpbn)

FY Dec 2014A
2014A 2015A
2015A 2016F
2016F 2017F
2017F 2018F
2018F
Net Fixed Assets 3,323 4,081 4,837 5,549 6,215
Invts in Associates & JVs 5,332 5,414 5,414 5,414 5,414
Other LT Assets 8,384 9,735 11,498 13,242 14,946
Cash & ST Invts 3,521 6,793 4,333 4,445 4,237
Inventory 5,016 6,548 6,705 6,756 6,579
Debtors 109 144 117 165 157
Other Current Assets 2,523 3,308 3,308 3,308 3,308
Total Assets 28,207 36,022 36,212 38,879 40,856

ST Debt 1,506 1,989 0.0 0.0 0.0

Creditor 156 317 74.9 340 137
Other Current Liab 4,842 5,096 5,347 5,809 6,828
LT Debt 2,752 5,762 5,713 5,234 3,484 Significant increase in long-
term debt due to US$ bond
Other LT Liabilities 511 763 763 763 763
issuance
Shareholder’s Equity 15,349 18,850 20,791 22,894 25,429
Minority Interests 3,091 3,247 3,524 3,839 4,216
Total Cap. & Liab. 28,207 36,022 36,212 38,879 40,856

Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 2,649 4,587 4,708 4,079 3,079

Net Cash/(Debt) (737) (958) (1,380) (789) 754
Debtors Turn (avg days) 7.0 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3
Creditors Turn (avg days) 43.6 84.0 18.6 79.8 27.9
Inventory Turn (avg days) 1,399.0 1,737.4 1,666.9 1,584.0 1,342.7
Asset Turnover (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Net gearing to remain
Current Ratio (x) 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.1 low
Quick Ratio (x) 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 CASH
Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 CASH
Capex to Debt (%) 30.6 19.5 48.4 52.4 77.6
Z-Score (X) 3.2 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7
Source: Company, DBS Vickers

ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES

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Company Guide
Bumi Serpong Damai

Cash Flow Statement (Rpbn)

FY Dec 2014A
2014A 2015A
2015A 2016F
2016F 2017F
2017F 2018F
2018F

Pre-Tax Profit 4,306 2,715 2,681 3,019 3,595

Dep. & Amort. 132 196 244 289 334
Tax Paid (310) (364) (370) (398) (452)
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (1,667) (47.6) (47.6) (47.6) (47.6)
Chg in Wkg.Cap. (930) (1,938) (121) 629 1,000
Other Operating CF (209) (212) (277) (315) (377)
Net Operating CF 2,989 398 2,156 3,224 4,100
Capital Exp.(net) (1,304) (1,510) (2,763) (2,744) (2,704)
Other Invts.(net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Strong operating cash flow
enables stable capex
Invts in Assoc. & JV (4,809) (82.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0
expansion going forward
Div from Assoc & JV (99.8) 156 277 315 377
Other Investing CF (218) (544) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Investing CF (6,431) (1,980) (2,486) (2,430) (2,327)
Div Paid (276) (289) (96.2) (203) (231)
Chg in Gross Debt 164 3,493 (2,038) (479) (1,750)
Capital Issues 1,729 1,656 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Financing CF (116) (2.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Financing CF 1,501 4,858 (2,134) (682) (1,981)
Currency Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chg in Cash (1,941) 3,276 (2,463) 112 (208)
Opg CFPS (Rp) 213 121 118 135 161
Free CFPS (Rp) 91.7 (57.8) (31.5) 24.9 72.5
Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Target Price & Ratings History

2049 Rp
Closing T arget
2 S.No. Dat e Rat ing
1949 10 Price Pric e
1: 03 J un 15 1885 2150 HOLD
1849 2: 05 J un 15 1920 2150 HOLD
1 3 4 8 3: 13 J ul 15 1865 1850 HOLD
1749 7 9 11
4: 10 Aug 15 1745 1850 HOLD
6 5: 03 Sep 15 1585 1595 HOLD
1649
6: 30 Oct 15 1620 1595 HOLD
7: 05 J an 16 1820 2100 BUY
1549
5 8: 19 F eb 16 1730 2100 BUY
1449 9: 16 Mar 16 1815 2100 BUY
10: 28 Apr 16 1910 2100 BUY
1349 11: 30 May 16 1820 2100 BUY

1249
May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16
Not e : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions.

Source: DBS Vickers

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 Company Guide
Bumi Serpong Damai

DBS Vickers recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Share price appreciation + dividends

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.
Indonesia. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers
Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the “DBS Vickers Group”) only and
no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written
consent of PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS
Bank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively,
the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to
change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard
to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of
addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal
or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of
profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This
document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or
persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group may have
positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and
other banking services for these companies.

Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can
be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments.
The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it
may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report.
The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and
assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on
which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual
results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED
UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:

(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and
(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk
assessments stated therein.

Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)
mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the
commodity referred to in this report.

DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research
department, has not participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction
in the past twelve months and does not engage in market-making.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the
companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her
compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of 31 May 2016,
the analyst(s) and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst(s), do not hold interests in the securities
recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities).

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Company Guide
Bumi Serpong Damai

COMPANY-
COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
1. PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia (''DBSVI'') does not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of 30
May 2016

2. Compensation for investment banking services:

DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of securities as a
manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further
information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document
should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or
located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be
contrary to law or regulation.
Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS”) or DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”),
both of which are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act
2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS and DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary
Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended
only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.
Hong Kong This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Hong
Kong Securities and Futures Commission.
Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.
Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report, received from
ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this
report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that
ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and
associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of
them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to
perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have
received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other
services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No.
198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the
Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign
entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers
Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an
Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent
required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection
with the report.
Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only
intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.
United Kingdom This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the meaning of the
Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Research distributed in the UK is
intended only for institutional clients.
Dubai This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch)
having its office at PO Box 506538, 3rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC),
Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research
report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.
United States This report was prepared by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia. DBSVUSA did not participate in its preparation. The research
analyst(s) named on this report are not registered as research analysts with FINRA and are not associated persons of DBSVUSA.
The research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on analyst compensation, communications with a
subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst. This report is being distributed in the
United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. This report may only be distributed to Major U.S.
Institutional Investors (as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) and to such other institutional investors and qualified persons as DBSVUSA
may authorize. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein
should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.
Other jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified,
professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia
DBS Bank Tower, Ciputra World 1, 32/F
Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav. 3-5, Jakarta 12940, Indonesia
Tel. 6221-3003 4900, Fax: 6221-3003 4943

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