ENERGY SECURITY IN CHINA

Professor Karen R. Polenske

(krp@mit.edu)
Room 9-535, MIT
Cambridge, MA 02139
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

March 24, 2006

Photos by Karen R. Polenske

 THREE SUMMARY POINTS

•GLOBAL SHORTAGES OF MAJOR INDUSTRIAL

RESOURCES AND GOODS ARE BECOMING
ACUTE

•REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS IN CHINA OF GLOBAL

SHORTAGES ARE SERIOUS

•ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ARE

BECOMING LARGE AND CREATE SERIOUS
POLICY ISSUES
IMPORTANT PHENOMENA IN CHINA
• RAPID GDP INCREASE (8-10% PER YEAR)

• 26% OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS IN 1998

• LARGE ENERGY-INTENSITY DECLINE (67% 1980-2003)

• NON-STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES PRODUCE 65%

OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT (2004)

• LARGEST GLOBAL CONSUMER OF COAL, COKE,

STEEL, AND OTHER ENERGY-INTENSIVE PRODUCTS
 ENERGY INTENSITY of Selected
Countries, 1980-2003

Energy Intensity, kgce/constant 4.00

3.50
2000 U.S. dollar GDP

3.00
2.50
2.00
United S tates
1.50
Brazil
1.00
Iran
0.50
China
0.00
India
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year

Notes: (1) GDP gross domestic product, measured in constant year 2000 US dollars.
(2) Kgce = Kilogram of coal equivalent.
(3) Units of energy consumption were converted from British thermal units to Kgce (1
million Btu=36 Kgce).
Source: Compiled by the Multiregional Planning Research team from Energy Information
Administration (2005b) data.
 ENERGY-INTENSITY, 1978-2002:
CHINA AND SHANXI PROVINCE

1000
900
(kgc e/thousand19 95 Y uan)

800
E nergy Int ensity

700
600
500
400
300
200
100 EI of Shanxi
0 EI of China
1 97 8
1 97 9
1 98 0
1 98 1
1 98 2
1 98 3
1 98 4
1 98 5
1 98 6
1 98 7
1 98 8
1 98 9
1 99 0
1 99 1
1 99 2
1 99 3
1 99 4
1 99 5
1 99 6
1 99 7
1 99 8
1 99 9
2 00 0
2 00 1
2 00 2
Year

Notes:(1) GDP gross domestic product, measured in constant thousand 1995 Yuan.
(2) Kgce = Kilogram of coal equivalent.
Source: Jonathan E. Sinton. 2002, China Energy Databook, Table 4B.2; Shanxi Fifty Years--1949-1999,1999;
China Energy Statistical Yearbook, 2000-2002; China Statistical Yearbook, 1989, 2003, 2004
 COKEMAKING AND STEEL
SUPPLY CHAIN
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Coal Mines Coal Transportation Cokemaking Plants Coke Transportation Coke Consumers

• • Coal • • Domestic
Coalmining
mining Domestic
• • Vehicle
Vehicle • • Vehicle
technology Vehicle
• • Oven
technology Oven consumers
consumers
technology technology
• Coalquality
• Coal quality technology technology
technology technology ( (Iron
Ironand
and
steel plants,
• • Modal • • Modal
steel plants,
• • By-products
Modalchoices
choices Modalchoices
choices
• • Coking
Cokingcoal
coal By-products chemicals,
chemicals,
etc.)
• • Other • • Fuel
Fuelchoices
choices
• • Pollution • • Fuel
Othercoal
coal Pollution Fuelchoices
choices etc.)

• • Coal
Coal
• • Regulations
Regulations • • Coke
Cokequality
quality • • Regulations
Regulations • • Foreign
Foreign
consumers
consumers
preparation
preparation

Source: MIT Multiregional Planning Research Team, 1999.

STRATEGIC POSITION OF CHINA’S COKE PRODUCTION

United States China Rest of the world

400

350

300
Million tonnes

250

200

150

100

50

0
1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002
Source: www.eia.doe.gov, China Statistical Yearbook, 1990-2002, China Energy Statistical Yearbook,
1991-1999, www.iea.org, Met Coke World Summit 2003, 2004 China Field Trip.
World, USA, and China Coke Production
1991-2001
(million tonnes)

Year World USA China

1991 335.9 21.8 73.5
1992 335.4 21.2 79.8
1993 331.1 21.0 93.2
1994 330.9 20.6 114.8
1995 366.4 21.5 135.0
1996 363.1 21.0 136.4
1997 359.8 20.0 137.3
1998 344.8 18.1 128.1
1999 332.9 18.1 120.7
2000 333.1 18.9 121.8
2001 n.a. 17.2 131.3
Source: www.eia.doe.gov, China Statistical Yearbook, 1990-2002, China Energy Statistical Yearbook,
1991-1999
n.a. = not available
World, USA, and China Steel Production
1992-2002
(million tonnes)

Year World USA China India

1992 722.7 84.3 80.9 18.1
1993 731.1 88.8 89.5 18.2
1994 730.3 91.2 92.6 19.3
1995 753.4 95.2 93 20.8
1996 750.3 94.6 100.3 21.8
1997 798.5 98.5 107.9 23.7
1998 759.9 97.3 114.1 23.5
1999 771.2 96.2 123.6 24.3
2000 829.6 100.1 125.8 26.9
2001 823.9 89.7 141.4 27.3
2002 886.7 92.4 181.6 28.8

Source: China Steel Year Book, 2001, 2003

 Coal, Coke, and Steel Production
in China
• China is the world’s largest producer of coal, coke,
and crude steel.

Coal, Coke, and Crude Steel Production, 2000

(Million Tonnes)
World China USA Japan India
Coal 4531 998 974 3 311
Coke 333 122 19 39 12
Steel 847 127 102 106 27
Data Source: China Statistics Yearb ook 2001, IEA, www.iea.doc.org, IISI, www.worldsteel.org
 TEEH Chain in China

TECHNOLOGY ENERGY ENVIRONMENT HEALTH

The Technology, Energy, Environment, Health Chain in China: a Case Study of

Cokemaking in Shanxi Province, edited by Karen R. Polenske. 2006. Kluwer/Springer
Publishers.
Fushunxi: surface coal mine with plants in background, Liaoning Province, August 6, 2002
Jiexiu old beehive coke ovens with green chimney, July 31 2002
Sanjia Cokemaking Plant, Worker hand-shoveling coal, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province,
July 31, 2002
SANJIA Cokemaking Plant – Loading 20-Tonne
Containers, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 9, 2000
Yingxian Clean Coke Ovens, Qingxu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002.
QingXu YingXian top loading of coal into “clean” coke ovens, Qingxu, Shanxi Province, July 31, 2002
Qingxu Coal-Gasif ication Company: Large-machinery (slot) coke-ov en battery with doors for new oven, Qingxu, Shanxi Province July 31, 2002,
Antai, Coke Push Into Quenching Car, Jiexiu, Shanxi Province, July 7, 2001
Anshan iron and steel complex, Liaoning Province, August 8, 2002
Benxi Iron and Steel, Basic Oxygen
Furnace, August 8, 2002.
Dalian port, wharves to unload coal, August 10, 2002
Dalian port, steel rolls waiting to be loaded, August 10, 2002