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EXTREME RAINFALL FOR AFRICA AND OTHER

DEVELOPING AREAS
By George H. Hargreaves,1 Fellow, ASCE
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ABSTRACT: Adequate and reliable records of rainfall depth-duration-


frequency amounts are often not available. Use of estimates of proba-
bilities from limited data can reduce errors due to either underdesign or
overdesign of structures and can reduce damage to irrigation facilities
and hydraulic structures from floods and excessive runoff. Estimates of
extreme rainfall events may also make possible an increased utilization
of rain at the locations where it falls. Methods are presented for
estimating rainfall intensities with a minimum of data. Equations are
given for use with 20-yr return period monthly rainfall amounts and with
daily rainfall extremes. Depth-duration and depth-frequency ratios of
extreme rainfall amounts have been found to be remarkably uniform
within large and diverse geographical areas. This appears to be true for
all of Africa. Large expenditures are being made to improve the
collection of hydrologic and meteorologic data in the Sahel of Africa.
Known ratios and relationships presented herein can improve the use of
the existing long records and of data currently being collected. Greater
emphasis on training in the use of the climatic data base is now available,
and the need to be improved is recommended.

INTRODUCTION

In the design of drainage systems and hydraulic structures, it is desirable


that estimates be made of extreme rainfall amounts for various durations
and return periods. Monthly rainfall amounts are more readily available
than daily and much more available than intensities for shorter time
periods. If monthly data can be used to estimate depth-duration-return-
period rainfall amounts, then significant improvements can be made in the
planning and design of hydraulic works.
The amount of rainfall that can be utilized for crop production is
influenced by rainfall intensities, soil infiltration rates, and the manage-
ment practices that determine the opportunity time for the water to enter
the soil, as well as rainfall amounts and antecedent soil moisture condi-
tions. This study evaluates the relationship between monthly amounts of
assured rain at the 5% probability (P05) or monthly amounts that can be
anticipated once in 20 yr and daily amounts of rain for various return
periods. Some of the previously reported relationships between 24-hr
depth-duration rainfall and intensities for shorter time periods are summa-
rized.
The damage and destruction caused to irrigation projects and other
hydraulic works by extreme rainfalls and the expenses incurred from
overdesigning structures can be greatly reduced through improved esti-
'Res. Prof. Emeritus, formerly Dir. of Res. Int. Irrig. Ctr., Dept. of Agric. and
Irrig. Engrg., Utah State Univ., Logan, UT 84322.
Note. Discussion open until October 1, 1988. To extend the closing date one
month, a written request must be filed with the ASCE Manager of Journals. The
manuscript for this paper was submitted for review and possible publication on
March 26, 1987. This paper is part of the Journal of Irrigation and Drainage
Engineering, Vol. 114, No. 2, May, 1988. ©ASCE, ISSN 0733-9437/88/0002-
0324/$1.00 + $.15 per page. Paper No. 22459.
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mates of depth-duration-frequency rainfall amounts. More accurate esti-
mates will also make possible improved conservation and use of rain for
agricultural purposes where it falls.
If the relationship between monthly amounts (P05) and extreme 24-hr
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intensities is fairly uniform for a country, region, or large area, a procedure


can be developed that will be useful when more adequate rainfall intensity
information is not available. This relationship was explored for various
regions of the world. Rainfall data for Africa indicated sufficient uniformity
so as to provide the engineer or agriculturalist working there a simple and
easily used criterion for estimating probable rainfall intensities for various
durations and frequencies of occurrence. The procedures developed are
recommended for use where there is a shortage of reliable and adequate
rainfall intensity records.
Although the study places primary emphasis on rainfall intensities for
Africa, considerable evaluation was made of rainfall relationships for other
regions with emphasis on the developing countries.
An evaluation is made of the usefulness of 24-hr or daily rainfall amounts
for estimating one-hour and 30-min rainfall intensities.
SOME PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
There is no theoretically sound reason for selecting a rainfall distribution
model in preference to another. It is, therefore, practical to assess
competing models in terms of empirical fit of available data, computational
ease, and consistency with various sample sizes.
Powell (1932) suggested that depth-duration-frequency rainfall amounts
D can be estimated from time t in hours and return period or frequency in
years T from the following equation:
D = K(tx J) 0 2 5 (1)
in which K = a coefficient for each location or region.
Bell (1969) compared extreme rainfall distributions for the United States
(including Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico), Australia, South Africa, and
the U.S.S.R. The relationships between extreme rainfall amounts and t
and T are very similar at all locations. The depth-frequency ratios for the
relationships shown by Bell (1969) and those presented by Narayana (1979)
as indicated by Hargreaves (198J) can be reproduced with a good degree of
accuracy from the equation
D = KxtmxTi/6 (2)
for values of t of from 0.5-96 hr and of T of 5-100 yr.
Reich (1963) used the Gumbel extreme-value method for analyzing
rainfall intensities. He compared the Gumbel plots for the 12 most reliable
South African recorder stations with a rainfall-frequency diagram devel-
oped by the U.S. Weather Bureau for the entire United States for
durations of 24 hr, 1 hr, and 30 min and return periods in years of 2, 5, 10,
50, and 100. The two diagrams are nearly equivalent. In this study Eq. 1
was compared with the diagram prepared by Reich (1963). The value forD
in Eq. 1 was taken from the diagram for t = 24 and T = 1Q. Values of D
were then calculated from Eq. 1 for the other 17 combinations of t and T
shown in the diagram. The average ratio of the values from the diagram

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divided by those from Eq. 1 was 1.01 with a standard deviation of 0.10.
Reich (1963) tentatively proposed a worldwide relation between rainfall
intensities of various frequencies.
Mclllwaith (1953) examined a great deal of data and concluded that the
annual series of extreme rainfall have log-normal distributions for all
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durations from five minutes to three days.


Hargreaves and Vogler (1984) concluded that the censored log-normal
and Tm distributions are approximately comparable for determining rain-
fall amounts for various return periods. A censored distribution eliminates
values below a predetermined limit and accepts all values equal to or above
that limit. Bernard (1932), Powell (1932), Vogler (1981), and Hargreaves
(1981) have concluded that extreme rainfall amounts vary with t0'25. This
seems valid for periods of time of from 30 minutes to several days.
Adamson (1981) prepared a censored log-normal probability analysis of
partial series data for 1, 2, 3, and 7-day extreme rainfall amounts using data
from South Africa and Nambia.
Adamson and Zucchini (1983) used 100 of the long-record stations to
compare eight different probability distributions of extreme one-day rain-
fall events. All eight distributions tend to converge for a return period of 10
yr (T = 10). The maximum difference between distributions for T = 10 was
5%. They found the log-Pearson type III model of annual series and the
censored log-normal of partial series to be roughly parallel throughout the
range of T = 2 to T = 200. The censored log-normal of partial series
produced values averaging about 4% lower than the log-Pearson type III.
The maximum average difference of about 7% occurred for T = 200. The
data from these 100 long-record locations indicate that for T = 10, it makes
little difference which probability distribution is used. For J i n the range of
100-200 yr, the rainfall intensities from the log-Pearson type III distribu-
tion averaged about 20% above those from the Gumbel model.
The study by Adamson (1981) gives censored log-normal values of
extreme rainfall for frequencies (return periods) of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and
200 years. 22 of the longer records reported by Adamson (1981) were used
in this study. All had record lengths of 98 or more years. The average
length was 100.6 years. The names, locations, and the mean annual rainfall
for the stations used are given in Table 1. Values from these 22 locations
were used to compare the (t x j)0-25 distribution of Eq. 1 with the eight
distributions used by Adamson and Zucchini (1983). The censored log-
normal of partial series, the log-Pearson type III of annual series and Eq.
1 produced very similar results for the average of T = 5 to T = 200.
Table 2 presents the lengths of records, maximum recorded one-day
rainfall within the length of record, the censored log-normal values for T =
100 and T = 200, and the values from Eq. 1 calculated from the censored
log-normal values for T = 10.
Table 3 compares the average amounts from the two distributions with
the maximum amounts recorded during the length of record for durations
(?) of 1, 2, 3, and 7 days. For the 22 locations, the exponential distribution
(J x t)°-2S slightly outperformed the censored log-normal distribution in
estimating the 100-yr return period storm from that of the 10-yr return
period. In Table 3, the values for T = 10 were assumed to be equal for both
the (T x r) 025 distribution and the censored log-normal for all durations.
From the literature cited, there is considerable agreement that extreme
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TABLE 1. Locations of Stations and Annual Rainfall in mm

Wealher Mean
bureau Latitude Longitude annual
number Station name (South) (East) rainfall
(D
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(2) (3) (4) (5)


3032 Breadasdorp 34° 32' 20° 02' 451
6733 Caledon 34° 13' 19° 25' 513
20866 Cape Town (Obs) 33° 56' 18° 29' 605
21655 Stellenbosch 33° 55' 18° 52' 678
21823 Paarl 33° 4 3 ' 18° 58' 853
23678 Robertson 33° 48' 19° 53' 309
27302 Calitzdorp 33° 32' 21° 41' 193
28838 George 33° 58' 22° 28' 824
30219 Uniondale 33° 39' 23° 08' 300
41417 Malmesbury 33° 27' 18° 44' 438
46479 Ladismith 33° 29' 21° 16' 313
57048A Grahamstown 33° 18' 26° 32' 666
76133 Somerset East 32° 43' 25° 35' 608
:
80072 Kei Road 32° 42' 27° 33' 735
84701 Clanwilliam 32° U ' 18° 54' 203
122480 Tarkastad (Sap) 32° 00' 26° 16' 459
142805 Richmond 31° 25' 23° 57' 324
146588 Steynsburg 31° 18' 25° 50' 389
148517 Jamestown (Sap) 31° 07' 26° 48' 517
172163 Colesberg 30° 43' 25° 06' 377
198836 Philipstown 30° 26' 24° 28' 337
214670 Springbok 29° 40' 17° 53' 211

TABLE 2. Comparisons of Two Probability Distributions for T = 100 and T = 200


with Maximum Recorded Rainfall Amounts in mm
Weather Length Maximum Censored Log-normal D = 7f(T x r) 0 ' 25
bureau of one day
number record recorded T= 100 r = 200 T= 100 7 = 200
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
3032 99 171 144 170 135 160
6733 99 136 113 130 119 142
20866 127 103 124 144 130 154
21655 99 178 106 119 123 156
21823 99 129 132 148 154 184
23678 98 122 116 137 112 133
27302 100 105 110 130 101 121
28838 103 274 279 337 243 290
30219 98 195 136 161 126 150
41417 100 80 85 97 96 114
46479 99 103 112 131 114 135
57048A 100 185 222 265 203 241
76133 99 149 185 218 178 211
80072 99 314 198 232 197 235
84701 104 80 99 (18 89 106
122480 99 70 122 142 124 148
142805 99 83 110 127 116 137
146588 98 108 133 155 132 156
148517 98 116 166 131 128 152
172163 100 98 112 128 121 144
198836 98 146 116 134 121 144
214670 99 76 106 124 101 121

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TABLE 3. Comparisons of Average of Two Probability Distributions for T = 100 and
T = 200 with Maximum Recorded Rainfall Amounts in mm
Maximum" Ave. censored Log-normal D = K(Tx t)"-25
Duration recorded in
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t (days) duration ( T = 100 r = 200 T= 100 r = 200


(D (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
1 137 135 158 135 161
2 162 184 216 178 212
3 186 205 240 199 237
7 216 244 285 241 286
"Maximum recorded rainfall in duration (, once in the length of record or approximately once in 100
years.

rainfall amounts usually vary with Z0,25. The comparisons presented by


Adamson and Zucchini (1983) indicate that most distributions give very
similar values for T = 10 and that the exponent to be applied to T in an
exponential distribution will vary somewhat with the distribution selected
for calibrating the exponent. The records used to prepare Tables 2 and 3
indicate that the censored log-normal of partial series and the (T x t)°,25
distributions fit the data well and are approximately equal in reliability,
providing the same values are used for the return period of T = 10.
Values for these two procedures were compared for t = 1, 2, 3, and 7
days and T = 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 years. The comparisons are quite
close. However, the (T x ?)0,25 distribution somewhat, but not excessively,
exceeds the values from the censored log-normal for T = 2.

DATA SOURCES

World-wide monthly rainfall data are available on computer tape from


the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Har-
greaves and Samani (1986) used these data to publish a world-wide climatic
data base that includes 469 locations in Africa and nearby islands. This
data base was prepared to facilitate the estimation of irrigation require-
ments and for use in activities related to agro-technology transfer. The
various probabilities shown include the 20-yr return period monthly values
of assured rainfall amounts (P05) calculated from the available records
using the gamma probability distribution.
Her Majesty's Stationery Office (1983) published values of extreme daily
rainfall for each month for locations with available data. Only one intensity
value, the extreme during the period of record, is given, as well as the
length of record at each location.
Hershfield (1961) found that a factor of 1.13 should be used to transform
observation-day rainfall amounts to corresponding 1,440 minutes return-
period amounts (24-hr amounts). The one-day rainfall values given by Her
Majestry's Stationery Office (1983) were, therefore, multiplied by 1.13
before using them to evaluate the coefficient K in Eq. 1. It was assumed
that the factor of 1.13 can be applied world-wide. This assumption was not
evaluated. However, since the exponential relationships mentioned previ-
ously seem to have global applicability, it would seem logical to assume
that the average factor will not vary significantly.
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PROCEDURE

Values of AT in Eq. 1 were calculated using the extreme daily value in the
period of record time 1.13 with t = 24 and T = the period of record. The
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calculated values of K were then compared with the 5% (20-yr return


period) probability of assured monthly rainfall (P05) from Hargraves and
Samani (1986).
Extreme rainfall increases with mean monthly rainfall and relationships
become more erratic for months of low rainfall amounts. A comparison
was made of mean monthly rainfall values from 95-105 mm inclusive with
recorded values of daily maximum in the period of record using the data for
Africa from Her Majesty's Stationery Office (1983). For locations with 30
years of record, the data and Eq. 1 indicate a probable maximum 10-yr
return period one-hour rainfall amount of 46 mm with a standard deviation
of 51% of the mean.
In order to eliminate the more erratic statistical relationships obtained
from lower rainfall amounts, only months with a mean rainfall of 100 mm
or more were used to determine values of AT in Eq. 1. Some countries,
including Algeria, Egypt, Malawi, Somalia, and Zimbabwi, were either too
arid or lacked published data and were not used in the analysis.
A total of 241 months representing most of the countries in Africa had
records of sufficient length and average monthly rainfall amounts of 100
mm or more. These 241 data sets were used in this study to compare values
of ^Tin Eq. 1 with the values of P05. The average equation obtained is
K = 0.080 x P05 . . (3)
for P05 in mm/month. The standard deviation in the factor 0.080 was 34%
of the mean value. This standard error of the estimate is not excessive, as
in each calculation only the extreme rainfall for the year with maximum
one-day rainfall was available. This could be an outlier, and one point does
not determine a distribution. However, the average value does provide a
useful criterion when more detailed information is not available.
If the value of K is increased to 0.107 times P05, Eq. 1 will then
encompass 67% of the African extreme rainfall.
Values of K calculated from the available data were recorded on a map
of Africa in an attempt to differentiate regional zones. Although significant
variability was found, there did not appear to be sufficient regional
differences to justify use of a coefficient other than the average of 0.080.
This created an expectation that other large areas would have similar
uniformity in the values of the coefficient. This is not the case. It appears
that local topography and the type of climate may produce significant
differences. It is possible that when more rainfall data become available
from the higher elevations and more rugged mountainous areas, the
relationship for Africa may exhibit significantly more variability.
For the United States east of the Mississippi River, the average value for
136 data sets is 0.118 with a standard deviation of 35% of the mean value.
For California, Oregon, and Washington, the value found is 0.060 with a
standard deviation of 24% of the mean. This value is valid for most of
Alaska with the exception of Cold Bay and Cordova (locations near very
high mountains) where the average coefficient is 0.098 with a standard
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TABLE 4. KP Values for Various Locations
Location KP
0) (2)
Costal locations in Sumatra and Borneo in Indonesia 0.030
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Along the major rivers of Brazil and in the lee of mountains in Costa
Rica, Ecuador, Nepal, India, and Peru 0.060

Makasar in Indonesia 0.065

Bangladesh, Ambonia in Indonesia, Port-au-Prince in Haiti, and


Kuala Lumpar in Malaysia 0.075

All of Africa, Pakistan, most of India, Sri Lanka, and Panama 0.080

Singapore 0.090

Most of Brazil and the Philippines 0.093

Calcutta and the Ganges Plains of India, Belize, and Dili in Indonesia 0.100

The south coasts of Caribbean islands and Malacca in Malaysia 0.145

deviation of 26% of the mean value. For 20 data sets in Hawaii, the average
coefficient is 0.103 with a standard deviation of 29%.
Hargreaves and Samani (1986) used the equation
K = KP X P05 (4)
They presented values of KP for various locations as listed in Table 4.

PRACTICAL APPLICATION

The data analyzed and a review of previous studies indicate that


depth-duration ratios do not vary greatly throughout the world. Except for
durations of less than one-half hour, the relationship of depth D to time t
can be approximated by r 0 ' 25 .
It is useful to calculate depth-frequency ratios by dividing values of
various return periods by the values of a particular return period such as a
10-yr period. The ratios obtained are influenced significantly by the
distribution selected for calibration, as indicated by Adamson and Zuc-
chini (1983). For the South African data with durations of from 1-7 days
and return periods or frequencies T of 2-200 years, comparison with the
censored log-normal distribution indicates that the relationship T 0 2 5
provides a reasonable approximation.
Mclllwaith (1953) concluded that extreme rainfalls have log-normal
distributions for all durations. The depth-frequency ratios that he found for
durations of less than one hour can be approximated by T 0 2 0 .
Bell (1969) reported approximately constant depth-duration and depth-
frequency ratios for various diverse countries and regions. This appears
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J. Irrig. Drain Eng. 1988.114:324-333.


valid for most of Africa. Much emphasis is being assigned to the develop-
ment of irrigation and of the water resources in Africa.
An important project for improving hydrologic and meteorologic data
collection and use in the Sahel (the AGRHYMET Project) involves
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Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, the Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger,
Senegal, and Guinea Bissau. The donors and the host countries provided
the equivalent of $66,560,000 during 1982-86. The donors include Italy,
Belgium, the Netherlands, the Federal Republic of Germany, Switzerland,
France, the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID), and three
programs of the United Nations (World Meteorologic Organization WMO,
Food and Agriculture Organization FAO, and the U.N. Development
Program UNDP).
AID contributed $7,000,000 to the AGRHYMET project during 1982-86
and is programming continuing support. Of this amount, approximately
$1,000,000 was for training, principally in the use of equipment and the
recording of data.
The International Irrigation Center, Department of Agricultural and
Irrigation Engineering, Utah State University, is currently developing a
monthly climatic data base for Africa, partially funded by AID. This data
base is designed primarily for use with crop growth and development
models (crop yield models). However, the data tables include the gamma
probability distribution parameter for monthly rainfall and may prove to be
useful in refining the information included in this study. Eq. 1 combined
with the gamma parameter may provide a useful tool for improving the
modeling of drainage conditions in connection with the yield models.
The urgent needs for increased food production will necessitate con-
struction of small dams, river diversions, and related irrigation and
drainage works. Damage due to the underdesign of culverts and floodways
on water resource development projects has been common. The most
frequent cause of small dam failure is inadequate spillway design due to
failure to adequately estimate the values of extreme rainfall. In various
tropical areas, some irrigation projects have been destroyed and aban-
doned due to the effects of unanticipated rainfall. Lack of adequate data or
estimates has also frequently resulted in costly expenditures for overde-
signed project facilities.
This study indicates the usefulness of depth-duration and depth-fre-
quency ratios and of exponential extreme rainfall distributions. Exponen-
tial relationships should be further refined and evaluated by using daily and
short-duration recorded rainfall amounts. Additional use and evaluation of
the procedures given in this paper and of data being generated by the
AGRHYMET project and other similar activities can provide a means of
encouraging greater realism in irrigation design, thereby reducing errors in
judgment due to optimism or lack of knowledge as to the probable
magnitude of extreme rainfall events and/or floods.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

Models and ratios of probability distributions of extreme rainfall should


be evaluated based upon empirical fit of available data. The censored
log-normal distribution has been found to produce good results for most
rainfall durations. Several studies have indicated that depth-duration
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rainfall amounts vary with a one-fourth power function of duration in hours
(t). There is significant evidence that extreme rainfall amounts also vary
with the one-fourth power of the frequency or return period (T).
Long records of South African rainfall are analyzed indicating that the
return periods or frequency in years T, and the 1, 2, 3, and 7-day extremes
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vary with (t x j)0-25. This function and the censored log-normal distribu-
tion provide very comparable results for T in the range of 5-100 years.
Evidence is presented that for some probability distributions it may be
desirable that the exponent of T should be somewhat reduced for durations
of less than one day (24 hr).
Reference is made to a data base that presents the 20-yr return period
monthly rainfall amounts. A method is presented for using values of the 5%
probability of assured monthly rainfall to estimate extreme daily rainfall
for African and other developing country conditions. Depth-duration and
depth-frequency ratios or exponential relationships can also be used to
estimate extreme rainfall for periods shorter than one day.
It is indicated that depth-duration and depth-frequency ratios are ap-
proximately constant for all of Africa. The available long records and
recent data frothe AGRHYMET project can be used to evaluate this
relationship and provide improved methodology for the design of spill-
ways, storm drainage, flood protection, and agricultural drainage.
Consideration is recommended for efforts to improve data availability
and to provide training in the use of the data now available and being
collected.

APPENDIX I. REFERENCES

Adamson, P. T. (1981). "Southern African storm rainfall." TR 102, Dept. of


Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, Republic of South Africa.
Bell, F. C. (1969). "Generalized rainfall-duration-frequency relationships." /.
Hydr. Div., ASCE, 95 (HY1), 311-327.
Bernard, M. M. (1932). "Formulas for rainfall intensities of long duration." Trans.,
ASCE, 96, 562-606.
Hargreaves, G. H. (1981). "Simplified method for rainfall intensities." J. Irrig.
Drain. Div., ASCE, 107 (1R3), 281-288.
Hargreaves, G. H., and Samani, Z. A. (1986). World water for agriculture-
precipitation management. International Irrigation Center, Dept. of Agricultural
and Irrigation Engineering, Utah State University, Logan, Utah.
Hargreaves, G. H., and Vogler, K. J. (1984). "Simple hydrologic modeling." Proc.
Conference Water Resources Development, ASCE, Coeur d'Alene, Idaho,
478^182.
Hershfield, D. M. (1961). "Rainfall frequency atlas of the United States for
durations from 30 minutes to 24 hours and return periods of from 1 to 100 years."
Technical Paper No. 40, U.S. Weather Bureau, Dept. of Commerce, Washing-
ton, D.C.
Mclllwaith, J. F. (1953). "Rainfall intensity-frequency data for New South Wales."
J. Instn. Ehgrg., Australia, 25 (7-8).
Narayana, V. V. D. (1979). "Rainwater management for lowland rice cultivation in
India." J. Irrig. Drain. Div., ASCE, 105 (IR1), 87-98.
Powell, R. W. (1932). Discussion of "Formulas for rainfall intensities of long
duration" by M. M. Bernard, Trans., ASCE, 96, 609-611.
Reich, B. M. (1963). "Short duration rainfall estimates and other design aids for
regions of sparse data." /. Hydrology, 2, North-Holland Publishing Co., Amster-
dam, 3-28.
Tables of temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and sunshine for the world.
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Part 4—Africa. (1983). Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London, U.K.
Vogler, K. J. (1981). "An analysis of rainfall frequency formula as applied to
Honduras," thesis presented to the University of Arizona, at Tucson, Ariz., in
partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science.
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY on 03/02/14. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

APPENDIX II. NOTATION

The following symbols are used in this paper:

D = depth-duration-frequency rainfall amount;


K = empirically derived coefficient;
KP = empirical coefficient;
P05 = the 5% probability of assured monthly rainfall (return period of
20 yr);
T = return period in years (5-100); and
t = duration or time elapsed in hours (0.5 or more).

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