E[R]

This is a translated summary of the

original Energy [R]evolution report
published in Portuguese in August 2016.
For the complete version, including
Methodology and Data Tables Annex,
please consult the original version at
www.greenpeace.org.br/revolucao

Energy [R]evolution
For a Brazil with 100% clean
and renewable energy

Brazilian scenario 2016

1
 Executive
Summary
In 2050 Brazil could have a 100% renewable energy
mix, while creating new jobs, improving air quality
and the lives of millions of people and helping to
limit global temperature rise. To show that this is
possible, the Energy [R]evolution 2016 proposes a
path toward a new energy generation and con-
sumption model that would meet the energy needs
of Brazil in the coming decades in a cleaner and
more just manner.
This future represents a step forward for the
country’s infrastructure, which would have a more
diversified energy mix, and more autonomy for the
urban population, who would generate their own
energy and benefit from improved mobility in cities.
At the same time, this future would ensure for tradi-
tional communities and indigenous people respect
for their rights as the current hydroelectric plants
proposed for the Amazon would not be built.
The Brazilian economy and society would benefit
directly, since the Energy [R]evolution would pro-
vide 618,000 jobs in 2030 related only to electricity
generation and the use of solar and ambient heat
throughout the country. Prices for electricity would
fall, with savings of around R$ 45 billion (or US$ 19.3
billion) per year in 2050. The outcome would be a
lower electricity bill and the possibility of generat-
ing one’s own electricity.
In recent years, Brazilians have experienced an
average increase of 72% in their electricity bills1.
Part of this increase is due to the fact that the
country’s model for electricity generation is based
mainly on the use of hydroelectric and fossil fuel
thermoelectric plants. Recently, hydroelectric plant
reservoirs experienced low water levels due to a
period of drought, which led to constant use of
fossil fuel-fired power plants. This meant citizens
had to foot the bill, as thermoelectric plants are
more expensive. The Energy [R]evolution proposes
a solution to this and other problems in Brazil.
2 Premises and principles of the Energy [R]e]volution Results of the Energy [R]evolution
This report is a global benchmark for the energy 1
sector. Dozens of editions in other countries and Data refer to average
five global editions have been published. The most rates for electricity
with taxes for the
recent global edition, released in September 2015, residential sector
showed how the world could achieve 100% renew- between April 2013
able energy and phase out the use of all fossil fuels by and December
2015. ANEEL -
embarking on an energy transition. Along the same Brazilian Electricity
lines, the fourth edition of the Brazilian report shows Regulatory Agency
how the country could transform its entire energy mix. (2016). Relatórios de
Consumo e Receita
Since the first Brazilian edition, in 2007, the report de Distribuição.
Consumidores,
has evolved. In 2016, the Energy [R]evolution pres- Consumo, Receita e
ents energy scenarios for all sectors, including indus- Tarifa Média – Região,
try and transportation. And innovates by showing Empresa e Classe de
Consumo. Available at:
how the country can achieve a 100% renewable bit.ly/1SZ4
energy mix—in addition to showing in detail how a
system based only on these sources would operate.
A group of specialists assisted Greenpeace Brazil in
assembling this report. The general development
of the scenarios was carried out by the systems
analysis team at the Institute of Thermodynamic
Engineering at the German Aerospace Center (DLR)
in Germany—a worldwide benchmark for energy
scenarios. The team at DLR worked in conjunction
with a team from the Energy Planning Program at
the Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate
Studies and Research in Engineering (Coppe) of the
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ).
The report was also based on a series of studies
carried out in partnership with Brazilian institutions
that are well recognized in their respective fields
of research. The scenarios for the transport sector
were developed by the Freight Transport Laborato-
ry at Coppe/UFRJ. Scenarios for energy efficiency
and energy transition for industry and other sectors
were developed by a team from the International
Energy Initiative (IEI) and the Graduate Program for
Energy Systems Planning at the State University of
Campinas (Unicamp). Finally, the structure for
the Base scenario for energy And electricity was
developed by Greenpeace Brazil.
3
 RESULTS OF THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
The Energy [R]evolution 2016 presents and com-
pares two scenarios for the Brazilian energy mix in
2050. The Base scenario reflects a continuation of
government policies and current trends for the en-
ergy sector. While the Energy [R]evolution scenario
is a projection developed by Greenpeace Brazil,
which analyzes the country’s renewable energy
potential to achieve a mix that is 100% clean with
zero greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the report, Brazilian energy consump-
tion will reach 6,849 petajoules (PJ) in 2050 (or
163.59 million tonnes of oil equivalent). This is 47%
less than predicted in the Base scenario, due to
significant potential gains in energy efficiency. The
energy transition proposed by Greenpeace Brazil
also depends on greater use of renewable electricity
to replace technologies that still burn fossil fuel today,
primarily in the transportation sector. Among the main
results of the Energy [R]evolution scenario are:
Use of 100% renewable sources throughout the
energy mix in 2050: fossil fuels can be gradually
eliminated between now and 2050. For electricity
generation, it would be possible to stop using coal
in 2030 and oil in 2040. Natural gas could still be
used as a transition fuel and then discarded mid-
century. The expansion of wind and solar energy
(photovoltaic and concentrated solar power) is of
special importance: they would achieve a share of
46% of electricity generation, which is more than
double that forecast in the Base scenario. The
installed capacity for renewable energy would rise
from the current 106 gigawatt (GW) to 349 GW in
2050. Primarily in transportation and industrial sec-
tors, eliminating the use of fossil fuels would also
occur gradually, with a transition toward greater use
of electricity and biofuels.
Increase in energy efficiency: replacing obsolete
technology with more efficient options and changes
in use patterns would result in gains of 47% in
energy efficiency by 2050. Examples of possible
measures include greater use of electricity in trans-
portation, the use of solar heat and more efficient
engines in industry, as well as improved climate
control and lighting systems in buildings. Starting in
2020, the scenario proposed by Greenpeace Brazil
would already be more efficient than the Base sce-
nario. In 2050, energy efficiency for transportation
4 Premises and principles of the Energy [R]evolution Results of the Energy [R]evolution
and industry would reach 61% and 40%, respective-
ly. In other sectors (residential, commercial, public
and rural), efficiency would reach 38%.
Electrification of the energy mix: the Energy [R]evo-
lution scenario forecasts an increase in demand
for electricity in every sector as a result of the
substitution of fossil fuels. In transportation and
industry, the share of electricity would rise to 25%
and 37% of consumption, respectively. As a result,
annual demand for electricity in Brazil would rise
from the current 500 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 864 TWh
in 2050 –around 6% below the Base scenario. Using
more electricity based on renewable sources is
one of the measures that would allow the country
to achieve high levels of energy efficiency and save
resources, enabling the phasing out of fossil fuels
and, consequently, the end of greenhouse gas
emissions in the energy sector.
Diversification and decentralization: electricity
generation in the Energy [R]evolution scenario
would be more diversified and decentralized.
There would still be a small increase in the number
of hydroelectric plants found today, but no new
projects would be necessary in the Amazon region.
In 2050, hydroelectric energy would represent
45% of generation, while wind energy would rise
to 25% and solar (photovoltaic and concentrated
solar power) would jump to 21%. Biomass would
remain at 7% of generation, and other sources,
like ocean and hydrogen power, would be respon-
sible for 2%. In addition, the current approach to
electricity production would change, since a large
number of consumers would begin to generate
their own energy with photovoltaic panels in their
homes, shops and companies and send electricity
back to the grid.
Revolution in the transport sector: a decrease in
total energy consumption in this sector could be
as high as 61% in relation to the Base scenario. For
this to happen, certain measures would be neces-
sary: broader adoption of electric motors, a tran-
sition from highway freight transport to railway,
improved logistics efficiency and prioritization of
public as well as non-motorized transportation in
urban areas. Technologies that enable the use of
electricity as a source of energy will be fundamen-
tal to eliminating the use of fossil fuels. In addi-
2
tion, biofuels will play an important role where the Alternatively, the
use of electricity is not well suited—like in planes full original report is
and certain vehicles. In the Energy [R]evolution, available at
(http://bitly/2cp0VtG).
electricity will be responsible for 25% of total
transport sector energy consumption, as com-
pared to 1% in the Base scenario. Biofuels, whose
share today is 19%, would reach 74% in 2050.
Cheaper electricity: eliminating the use of fossil
fuels would result in significant cost savings.
In 2050, the total cost of electricity supply in the
Energy [R]evolution would be R$ 209 billion
(US$ 89 billion) per year as compared to R$ 254 billion
(US$ 108 billion) in the Base scenario. This annual
savings of R$ 45 billion (US$ 19 billion) would
benefit the country and consumers enormously.
Many jobs: among the many benefits that the
Energy [R]evolution would bring to the country is a
large number of jobs. In 2030, it is estimated that
there will be 618,000 jobs associated with electrici-
ty generation and solar and ambient heat alone. In
addition, in the scenario proposed by Greenpeace
Brazil, in 2030 there would be 61 jobs for each PJ of
primary energy consumed for electricity genera-
tion. In the Base scenario there would be only 57
jobs per each PJ. In the construction, manufacture,
maintenance and operation of power plants, the
Energy [R]evolution scenario forecasts 1,247 jobs
for each installed GW in 2030, as compared to
1,093 in the Base scenario. A difference of 12%.
With undeniable social, environmental and eco-
nomic gains, it is clear that the ingredient that is
lacking to accelerate the energy transition for a
renewable future is political will. This report by
Greenpeace Brazil shows that this Energy [R]evo-
lution is possible and overall results are shown
in the next chapter. A detailed analysis about
the paths for putting it into practice, as well as a
complete set of data tables and methodology
are available in the original Portuguese version
available at www.greenpeace.org.br/revolucao2.
5
 01

Results
ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR
Next we present the results of the two scenarios In 2014, energy consumption in Brazil reached 3
developed for this report: (i) Base scenario, which 9,027 PJ3, of which 41% was consumed by indus- The final energy
follows the trends signaled by the Brazilian govern- try. The Base scenario forecasts that demand for consumption does
not include the
ment for the energy sector for the coming decades; energy will increase by 43% to 12,904 PJ by 2050. consumption for
(ii) and the Energy [R]evolution (E[R]), which pres- While in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, with non-energy use and
ents a roadmap for a different energy mix in 2050, the phasing out of fossil fuels and gains in energy consumption of the
energy sector
one that is more efficient, 100% renewable and free efficiency, demand would be 6,849 PJ in 2050. This is
of greenhouse gas emissions. 47% less than the Base scenario and 24% less than
current levels.

→ Energy demand by sector (PJ/year)

How our energy mix will change by the year 2050 if we follow the current trend or if we follow the
Greenpeace Brazil proposal.

[ ]
Base 3,308 3,664 2,056

2014
E[R] 3,308 3,664 2,056

Base 3,244 3,656 1,840

2020
E[R] 3,232 3,434 1,739 335

Base 3,533 4,218 2,166

2030
E[R] 2,770 3,123 1,554 2,469

[ ]
Base 3,990 4,781 2,553

2040
E[R] 2,183 3,200 1,694 4,247

Base 4,554 5,312 3,039

2050
E[R] 1,792 3,181 1,877 6,055

Transport Other sectors

Industry Energy efficiency

6 7
 01
Results

TRANSPORT
4
Transport demand The transport sector has the greatest potential for due to modal shift – taking freight off the roads and → Energy demand and energy efficiency in the transport sector in the E[R] scenario (PJ/year)
is given in tonnes/km
for freight and efficiency gains in the Energy [R]evolution scenario. transferring it to railways, for instance – and by the
With energy efficiency measures it would be possible to reduce energy consumption in the transport
in passenger/km In 2050, energy consumption would fall by 61% in greater use of electricity.
for passengers. sector by 61% by midcentury.
relation to the Base scenario. This is possible mainly

→ Energy demand in the transport sector by type and mode (PJ/year) 2014 40 1,847 1,231 171 19

2 014
2020 2030 2040 2050
2020 54 1,864 1,142 151 21 13
Type
Rail
Freight Base 1,287 1,311 1,396 1,567 1,770
2030 68 1,715 807 154 26 763 Road (light)
E[R] 1,287 1,290 1,097 674 420 Road (heavy)
Passenger Base 2,021 1,934 2,137 2,423 2,784 2040 94 1,366 531 161 30 1,807 Air

E[R] 2,021 1,942 1,673 1,509 1,372 Navigation

2050 122 1,130 338 166 35 2,762 Energy Efficiency

Mode

Rail Base 40 48 58 73 90
E[R] 40 54 68 94 122 → Modal shares in freight transport
Road Base 3,078 3,009 3,262 3,671 4,177 2014 2020 2030 2050
E[R] 3,078 3,007 2,523 1,898 1,468 Pipeline Base 3% 3% 2% 2%
Air Base 171 167 189 216 248 E[R] 3% 3% 2% 2%
E[R] 171 151 154 161 166 Air Base 0.10% 0.12% 0.14% 0.20%
Water Base 19 20 24 31 39 E[R] 0.10% 0.09% 0.10% 0.11%
E[R] 19 21 26 30 35 Water Base 17% 17% 18% 20%
Total Base 3,308 3,244 3,533 3,990 4,554 E[R] 17% 19% 20% 23%
E[R] 3,308 3,232 2,770 2,183 1,792 Rail Base 25% 26% 27% 31%
E[R] 25% 26% 31% 46%
Road Base 55% 54% 52% 47%
In the two scenarios analyzed, the demand for pas-
E[R] 55% 52% 46% 28%
senger and freight transport service is the same4.
In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, the Reduction in transport demand
demand for road transport is reduced by improv- due to logistic efficiency E[R] 0% 2% 4% 6%
ing logistic efficiency of freight transport and also
migrating from motorized to non-motorized modes
of passenger transportation.

8 9
 01
Results

→ Modal shares in passenger transport

5
Demanda de 2014 2020 2030 2050
transportes, dada
por tonelada/km para Air Base 6% 7% 7% 7%
o transporte de cargas,
e por passageiro/km E[R] 6% 6% 7% 7%
para o transporte
de passageiros. Water Base 0.06% 0.06% 0.08% 0.10%
E[R] 0.06% 0.07% 0.08% 0.11%
Rail Base 3% 4% 4% 4%
E[R] 3% 5% 7% 13% INDUSTRY AND OTHER SECTORS
Road Base 91% 90% 90% 89% With regard to the industrial sector, the Energy
E[R] 91% 88% 86% 79% [R]evolution scenario shows that it is possible to
improve energy efficiency by 40%. In residen-
Reduction in transport demand due tial, public, commercial and rural sectors, energy
to the use of non-motorized modes E[R] 0% 1% 3% 6% efficiency would reach 38% in 2050.

→ Energy demand and energy efficiency in the industrial sector and other sectors
in the E[R] scenario (PJ/year)
In relation to freight, logistical efficiency measures, In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity
would be responsible for 25% of total energy con- With energy efficiency measures it would be possible to reduce industrial consumption
like trip optimization, would enable a 6% reduction
sumption in the transport sector. This is significant by 40% and in other sectors by 38% by midcentury.
in transport demand in 20505. In addition, with
modal shifts, from road to rail, and improved energy growth given its share is practically zero today. The
efficiency, the energy consumption for freight entire fleet of road vehicles would be smaller, with
transport would be 76% lower (460 PJ) in the anol and biodiesel, 29%. Hydrogen would provide Industry
power for 28,000 urban buses. 3,664
Energy [R]evolution scenario. 2014 Other sectors
2,056
For passenger transport, the Energy [R]evolution Energy efficiency
would halve the total consumption of energy
compared to the Base scenario in 2050. To do so, 3,434 222
2020
measures would be necessary to improve urban 1,739 101
mobility, enabling prioritization of public transpor-
tation and incentives for non-motorized transport.
3,123 1,095
An increase in the use of bicycles or walking would 2030
reduce demand for passenger transport by 6%. 1,554 612

In 2050, road transport would still be important for

passengers. That is why the adoption of electric 3,123 1,095
2040
motors would be essential for reducing overall
1,694 859
energy consumption. In the Base scenario, following
the trends of the Brazilian government, there would
be 143 million vehicles (private cars, commercial ve- 3,181 2,131
2050
hicles, motorcycles, buses and trucks) in 2050, but 1,877 1,162
only 0.2% with electric motors (around 275,000 au-
tomobiles and 53,000 buses). Another 0.3% would
be hybrid vehicles, which are powered by a combi-
nation of electricity and fuel. Approximately 30% of
the vehicle fleet would continue to be powered by
gasoline or diesel and the rest would use ethanol or
have flex engines.

10 11
 01
Results

5
According to the study developed by IEI and In the residential sector the main opportunity ENERGY DEMAND BY SOURCE
Jannuzzi, G. M. Unicamp5 for the Energy [R]evolution report, for conservation of electricity is found in lighting
and Jantim, H. (2016). The energy demand in Brazil in 2050 would be 47%
the areas with the most potential for electricity systems and for thermal energy in the heating of
Revolução Energética lower in the Energy [R]evolution scenario. The energy
2016 - Eficiência conservation in the industry sector are lighting water and heating for food preparation. In other
sources in E[R] are also different.
Energética. Relatórios systems, engines and heating processes. And, in sectors, the main potential for conservation lies
1, 2 e 3. International the case of thermal energy, it is the use of heat- in the use of lighting, motive power (water pump-
Energy Initiative (IEI)
and Programa de ing and process heating. ing systems, for example), refrigeration, heating
Pós-Graduação em and process heat. → Energy demand by source (PJ/year)
Planejamento de
Sistemas Energéticos Consumption of different energy sources in Brazil up to 2050.
da Universidade → Potential for electricity conservation (%)
Estadual de Campinas
(UNICAMP). Industry Public Residential Commercial Rural
Base 3,691 547 498 1,799 2,471 21

2014
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
E[R] 3,691 547 498 1,799 2,471 21
Average Potential 24 37 23 36 27 36 24 33 31 46
Lightning 14 47 15 35 35 50 32 35 29 34 Base 3,448 558 456 1,771 2,479 29

2020
Refrigeration/Cooling 10 20 35 31 30 35 14 31 15 35 E[R] 3,248 469 429 1,743 2,462 54
Heat Processes 7 11 - - 25 38 - - 25 38
Motive Power 30 43 32 47 32 46 32 45 34 48 Base 3,421 685 520 2,233 3,020 37

2030
Direct Heating 11 22 15 23 15 23 15 23 15 25 E[R] 2,142 289 281 1,917 2,664 150 3

Electrochemical 5 7 - - - - - - - -
Base 3,646 865 575 2,729 3,265 43

2040
E[R] 738 159 153 2,527 3,252 238 10
→ Potential for thermal energy conservation (%)
Commercial
Base 3,918 1,041 568 3,317 4,012 49

2050
Industry Public Residential Rural
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 E[R] 7 3,109 3,383 327 23

Average Potential 28 43 7 18 25 30 35 45 35 47

Hydrogen Biomass
Coal Solar thermal
Natural gas Ambient and process heat
Oil Products
Electricity

12 13
 01
Results

In the Base scenario, fossil fuels still make up a large
share. Today, they represent 58% of total energy
consumption and in 2050 would continue to supply
47% of the total. This small reduction would be
offset in part by the use of electricity, whose share
For the transport sector, whose current consump- →Energy demand by source in industry (PJ/year)
tion is based 81% on fossil sources, the Base Energy consumption in the industrial sector in both scenarios.t
scenario provides for continued use of these fuels,
although this figure would decrease to 57% in 2050.
Part of this demand would be supplied by biomass. Base 517 458 498 741 1,449

2014
would rise from the current 20% to 26% in 2050. This source would rise from the current 19% to 43%
E[R] 517 458 498 741 1,449
To do so will depend on the expansion of fossil fuel by midcentury. The use of electricity for transpor-
thermoelectric plants, in addition to nuclear plants. tation in the Base scenario is marginal, achieving a
The use of biomass would also rise slightly, achiev- share of only 1% in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Base 483 491 456 739 1,488

2020
ing a share of 31% of total consumption. scenario, the use of electricity, which would rise to
E[R] 402 404 429 740 1,443 17
25% of total consumption for the sector, would be
On the other hand, in the Energy [R]evolution sce-
primarily used for road transportation, with 391 PJ
nario we would arrive in 2050 with 100% renewable
(or 27% of the consumption of this mode). It would Base 587 618 520 872 1,621
energy, with a large increase in the use of electrici-

2030
also be used in the rail mode, amounting to 64 PJ or
ty—45% of total energy consumption. With regard E[R] 297 272 281 731 1,491 49 2
53%. Biofuels—ethanol and biodiesel —would also
to biomass, which today represents 27% of the
have an increased share in transport energy consump-
energy consumption in Brazil, the source would
tion (75%). The use of hydrogen in urban passenger Base 699 760 575 1,012 1,734
represent 49% in 2050. Solar thermal energy, today

2040
buses, however, would be marginal (0.1%).
marginally employed in other sectors (residential E[R] 153 154 153 947 1,706 83 4
and commercial), would increase its share in the
Greenpeace Brazil scenario, achieving 5% of overall
energy consumption in 2050. And it would be em- Base 806 889 568 1,170 1,879

2050
ployed to a greater extent in the industrial sector, E[R] 1,171 1,876 1218 6
rising to 4% of the consumption of this sector.

Oil products
→ Energy demand by source in transport sector (PJ/year) Electricity
Energy consumption for the transport sector in both scenarios. Biomass
Natural Gas
Base 2,605 67 7 630 Oil products Coal
2014

Electricity Solar thermal

E[R] 2,605 67 7 630
Biomass Ambient and process heat
Natural gas Hydrogen
Base 2,492 34 14 704
2020

Hydrogen
E[R] 2,442 48 28 713

For industry, the Base scenario foresees continued

Base 2,345 7 19 1,161
use of fossil fuel, which is expected to remain in 46%
2030

E[R] 1,670 9 166 926

in 2050. Electricity is expected to rise to 22% in 2050,
only two percentage points above its current share.
While biofuels are expected to top 35%.
Base 2,436 29 1,525
2040

The Energy[R]evolution foresees a very different

E[R] 501 347 1,335 industrial sector: fossil fuels would be replaced
primarily by the use of biomass (59%), followed by
Base 2,574 38 1,942 renewable electricity (37%). Solar thermal energy
2050

would be responsible for 4%.

E[R] 455 1,335 2

14 15
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Results

→ Energy demand by source in other sectors (PJ/year) ELECTRICITY

Energy consumption in the other sectors in both scenarios.
Currently, electricity consumption in Brazil is 500 TWh. and wind power. It is important to note that the
In 2050, in the Base scenario this value is expected to difference in consumption between the two sce-
Oil products rise to 921 TWh per year, 11% of which would come narios is small because in the Energy [R]evolution
Base 569 22 1,051 392 21
from fossil fuels. In the Energy [R]evolution, con- the electric power sector, although efficient, would
2014
Electricity
E[R] 569 22 1,051 392 21 Biomass
sumption would rise to 864 TWh a year, using only replace part of the total energy demand for fossil
renewable sources with a significant share of solar fuels in sectors like transport and industry.
Natural Gas
Base 473 33 1,018 287 29
2020

Solar thermal
E[R] 403 17 975 306 38 Ambient and process heat

Base 489 60 1,342 238 37

2030

E[R] 1768 1,020 2481011

Base 511 104 1,688 206 43

2040

E[R] 84 5 1,233 211 155 6

Base 539 152 2,108 191 49

2050

E[R] 1,483 172 206 15

In the so-called "other sectors" (residential, com-

mercial, public and rural), the Base scenario pre-
dicts that fossil fuels will continue to represent 34%
South North 2
of energy consumption in 2050, slightly below the
current level of 42%. The share of electricity is ex- Northeast North 3
pected rise from 51% to 69% in 2050. In the future Midwest Generation + Demand
of the Energy [R]evolution there will be no fossil
Southeast Only generation
fuels and energy demand for other sectors would
be met primarily by electricity (79%). Solar thermal North 1 Interconnection
energy would play a more significant role (11%),
South North 2
complemented by biomass (9%) and marginal use
of hydrogen (1%). Northeast North 3
Midwest Generation + Demand
Southeast Only generation
North 1 Interconnection

The operation of the 100% renewable electricity

South North 2 mix in 2050 was analyzed in spatial and temporal
terms. Electricity load was examined for all regions
Northeast North 3
and periods of time in order to simulate optimal
Midwest Generation + Demand
supply. The model considered the availability of en-
ergy potential, transmission infrastructure and cost.
Southeast Only generation A map with all regions is shown in the illustration.
North 1 Interconnection

16 17
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Results

→ Electricity generation by source (TWh/year) In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, power plants
Electricity generation in Brazil up to 2050 in both scenarios. in Brazil would total 349 GW of installed capacity,
against 314 GW in the Base scenario, due to the
characteristics of the plants that compose the
generation system. This means adding 216 GW of
Base 18 81 30 13 15 373 12 46 capacity by 2050. Some of these new plants are
2014

E[R] already under construction.

18 81 30 13 15 373 12 46

Base 10 46 20 12 15 375 58 6 52
2020

→ Installed capacity for electricity generation (GW)

E[R] 8 47 22 3 15 360 58 10 51
The mix of power plants is different for the two scenarios.
Base 20 73 17 10 34 400 106 19 86
2030

E[R] 21 8 1 21 365 120 36 59 5 3

Base 3 15 5 4 2 89 5 12

2014
Base 18 85 16 9 42 473 150 44 106
E[R] 3 15 5 4 2 89 5 12
2040

E[R] 9 21 2 431 186 99 77 31 9 Base 3 17 7 4 2 110 18 17 4

2020
E[R] 2 19 8 1 2 106 18 14 8
Base 17 93 14 6 55 610 173 63 115 9 4
2050

E[R] 5 503 280 150 75 83 12 Base 5 22 8 4 4 120 32 22 14

2030
E[R] 10 3 3 109 37 17 27 3 3

Coal Hydrogen Concentrated Solar Power

Hydropower
Base 5 23 7 4 5 128 45 28 34

2040
Natural gas Ocean
Fuel Oil Wind E[R] 4 3 110 57 21 69 12 3
Diesel Photovoltaic
Nuclear Biomass Base 5 23 6 3 7 137 52 30 47 3 1

2050
E[R] 112 85 19 100 26 5 1

In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, solar and wind Coal Hydrogen Concentrated Solar Power
power plants would be responsible for 46% of the
Natural gas Hydropower Ocean
total electricity generation in Brazil. Concentrated
solar power (CSP), which is currently not used in Fuel Oil Wind
Brazil, and photovoltaic, which is still marginal, Diesel Photovoltaic
would rise to 6% and 14%, respectively, in 2050. Nuclear Biomass
Wind power would continue to rise from the current
2% to 25%.

18 19
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Results

Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants would have
26 GW of installed capacity in 2050. In the South-
east region alone, due to its proximity to large cen-
ters of consumption, there would be around 25 GW.
Other CSP plants would be located in the Northeast,
where the potential for solar power is higher.
By combining large-scale plants and distributed
photovoltaic systems on the roofs of Brazilians,
we could achieve 100 GW of installed capacity of
photovoltaic energy by midcentury. In this case, we
Wind power plants would provide 85 GW of in- → Additional capacity of transmission lines in 2050 (GW)
stalled capacity, with the Northeast region provid-
To ensure the flow of energy around Brazil, the transmission system will need to grow.
ing most of this capacity: 71 GW or 83%.
Especially in the Northeast and Southeast regions, new transmission lines will be neces-
In 2014, Brazil already had hydroelectric plants with sary to transport electricity coming from new wind power plants.
a total of 89 GW of installed capacity. By 2050, the
Energy [R]evolution foresees 112 GW of installed
capacity from this source. Around 20 GW would be
from plants that are already under construction to- South - Itaipu 14.4
day. The Greenpeace Brazil scenario calculates that Midwest - Southeast 18.8
3 GW would be added to the system from plants

Capacity of Transmission
would also have part of the installed capacity in the located in the Southern region. Unlike the plans of Northeast - Southeast 51.6

Southeast region (50%), followed by the Northeast the government, calculations for this study show Northeast - IMP 10.4
(25%), but with some presence in other regions. that there is no need for new hydroelectric plants
North 2 - Xingu 3.5
in the Amazon region, which is a fragile biome and
easily damaged by such projects. North 1 - Xingu 1

Belo Monte - Xingu 2.7

Southeast - Xingu 0.1

→ Installed capacity by region in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario (GW) North 1 - IMP 0.1

In the Energy [R]evolution scenario each region of the country would have this mix of plants Teles Pires - Midwest 0.3
operating in 2050.

Biomass Hydrogen Photovoltaic Concentrated Solar Power Wind Ocean Hydropower
By 2050, the transmission system would need to grow
South 3.3 0.13 10.0 0.0 14.4 1.4 19.7 to ensure that electricity could be transferred from
one region to another. The greatest increase would be
Southeast 10.6 0.44 50.0 25.0 0.0 1.2 7.2 between the Northeast and Southeast, primarily to
Midwest 0.9 0.04 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.1 transmit wind power. The Southeast region, which is a
large center of consumption, would continue to import
Northeast 2.7 0.11 25.0 0.0 71.1 0.9 11.0 electricity from other regions.
North 1 0.8 0.03 3.0 1.4 0.0 1.1 4.6
North 2 0.5 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5
→ Net electricity imports between regions in 2050
North 3 0.5 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
400 Teles Pires
20.2
Itaipu 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 19.3 South
300
Belo Monte 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2 Northeast

Teles Pires 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 200 North 1
346.7 Itaipu
100 Belo Monte

TWh
Midwest
0 -15.9
Southeast
-23.4
-100 -80.6 North 2

-41.9 North 3
-200 -55.5

-300 -172.6

-7.2
-400

20 21
 01
Results

→ Week with peak load → Week with minimum wind

180 160
160
140
140
120
120
100 100 Hydropower
Wind
80 80
Concentrated
60 Solar Power
60
40 Photovoltaic
40 Biomass
20
GW

Adjustable
0 20 Demand
1 25 49 73 97 121 145 168

GW
Total Demand
0
Week hours 1 25 49 73 97 121 145 168
Week hours
Hydropower Photovoltaic
Wind Biomass
CSP Adjustable Demand
Total Demand
→ Week with maximum wind
180

160
The renewable installed capacity in the Energy
[R]evolution scenario was calculated to meet the 140
country’s electricity needs in various situations. The 120
graphs below show the typical behavior of electric- Hydropower
ity supply and demand for each hour throughout a 100
Wind
week. Each graph shows different demand condi-
tions and different availability conditions for wind 80 Concentrated
Solar Power
and water in reservoirs. 60 Photovoltaic
As can be seen in the graphs, electricity generation
40 Biomass
based on photovoltaic and wind power plants is pri-
Adjustable
oritized and complemented by concentrated solar 20 Demand
power plants and hydroelectric plants (which would

GW
operate in a flexible manner). At times of lower wind 0 Total Demand

or lower water levels in reservoirs demand would be 1 25 49 73 97 121 145 168

complemented by the use of biomass power plants. Week hours
The simulation results also show that measures
for demand management can reduce the system
load by up to 2.8 GW. There is also a curtailment of
25.53 TWh a year that refer to unused power genera-
tion from solar, wind, hydro and ocean sources, as
their power generation in some hours of the year
exceeds the demand.

22 23
 01
Results

→ Week with minimum hydroelectric generation → Total and specific costs of electricity generation 6
The calculation does
180 Using 100% renewable sources would reduce the total electricity generation cost in 2050. In the not take into account
Base scenario, the amount would remain almost the same as today. inflation.
160

140 300 0.30

120 250 0.25

100

Billions of reais
200 0.20

R$/kWh
80
150 0.15
60

40 100 0.10

20 50 0.05
GW

0
0 0.00
1 25 49 73 97 121 145 168 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050
Week hours
Specific costs of electricity generation - Base scenario Base
Specific costs of electricity generation - [R] E scenario E[R]
Hydropower Photovoltaic
Wind Biomass
CSP Adjustable Demand
Total Demand → Difference between total investments and fuel costs for electricity generation in the Base and E[R]
scenarios (R$ billion)

2014 - 2021 - 2031 - 2041 - Cumulative Annual Average

2020 2030 2040 2050 2014 - 2050 2014 - 2050

Investment Base scenario 391 420 438 448 1,697 46

Investments and costs of electricity generation
To expand the installed capacity for electricity
generation in Brazil, the Energy [R]evolution sce-
nario would require investments of R$ 1.747 trillion
(or US$ 743 billion). This is slightly more than that
needed for the Base scenario: R$ 1.697 trillion (or
US$ 722 billion).
Despite the need for a larger total investment, the
energy [R]evolution scenario actually saves money.
This is because there is no spending on fossil fuels.
This savings would be of R$ 909 billion (or US$
387 billion) by 2050, much more than the addi-
tional investments needed to implement the new
renewable power plants of the Energy [R]evolution
scenario (R$ 50 billion or US$ 21.4 billion).
Investment E[R] scenario 360 388 503 496 1,747 47
Difference in Investment
E[R] scenario -31 -31 65 47 50 1
Fuel savings in
E[R] scenario 3 136 331 439 909 25
Total savings in
E[R] scenario 34 167 266 392 859 23
Having a 100% renewable mix would bring a lower the average cost of electricity generation in 2050
total cost of electricity generation in 2050. It would be R$ 0.19 per kWh (or US$ 0.079 per kWh).
would cost R$ 209 billion (US$ 89 billion) a year In the Base scenario it would be R$ 0.22 per kWh (or
or R$ 45 billion (US$ 19.3 billion) less than the US$ 0.092 per kWh)6. Currently generation costs
Base scenario. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario R$ 0.21 per kWh (or US$ 0.09 per kWh).

24 25
 01
Results

→ CO2 emissions up to 2050 CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

Following the current trend, the energy sector will emit 6% more CO2 than today. If Brazil continues on the path of the government’s
The Greenpeace Brazil scenario shows that we could reduce emissions to zero. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
(INDC) we will arrive in 2050 with an increase in
CO2 emissions in the energy sector of around 6%
in comparison to 2014. Around 541 million tons
would have been released into the atmosphere
600 250 by 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario,
thanks to the use of 100% renewable energy
27 sources, emissions would fall from their current
level (around 511 million tons of CO2 per year) to
500 30 30 27 zero by midcentury.
200
25
25 → CO2 emissions in the energy sector (millions of tons per year)
43
207
400 18 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050
195
CO2 emissions (Mt/year)

Base E[R] Base E[R] Base E[R] Base E[R] Base E[R]

Population (millions)
213 213
189 228 150
Total Emissions 511 511 446 403 473 245 510 92 541 0
202
418
300
199
52 540
47 Transport 213 213 202 199 189 135 195 40 207 0
47 47 43 10 100 Industry 135 135 128 112 150 78 173 41 188 0

200 40 Other Sectors 47 47 40 33 43 15 47 7 52 0

33 Electricity Generation
135 188 86 86 51 41 66 9 68 1 67 0
135 135 173
150 Other Conversions 30 30 25 18 25 10 27 3 27 0
128 50
100 112 3 Emissions per capita 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.1 2.2 0.4 2.3 0
15
40

86 86 78 7
51 66 68 67
41 41
9
0 0
Base E[R] Base E[R] Base E[R] Base E[R] Base E[R]

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050

Electricity Generation Transport

Industry Other Conversions
Other Sectors Avoided emissions
Population

26 27
 01
Results

JOB CREATION 7
Primary energy
In addition to reducing CO2 admissions to zero, improving efficiency and reducing consumed for
costs of electricity generation, the Energy [R]evolution would also create new jobs for electricity generation.

Brazil. Estimates indicate that, in 2030, around 618,000 jobs would be associated with
electricity generation and solar and ambient heat alone.

→ Number of jobs in 2030 by type in the Energy [R]evolution scenario (electricity → Number of jobs in 2030 by source in Energy [R]evolution scenario
and solar and ambient heat) (electricity and solar and ambient heat)

2030 Empregos Totais 618.101

2030
Total no. of Jobs 618,101 Total no. of Jobs 618,101
Construction and Installation 65,603 Coal 1,528
Manufacture 23,189 Natural Gas and Oil Products 28,287
Operation and Maintenance (O&M) 176,042 Nuclear 3,224
Supply of Fuels 308,153 Biomass 366,794
Solar Thermal Energy and Ambient Heat 45,114 Hydro 81,472
Wind 21,332
Photovoltaic 52,720
Concentrated Solar Power 8,255
→ Number of jobs in the Base and E[R] scenarios Ocean 9,375
Base E[R] Solar – Thermal 43,951
Jobs per PJ of primary energy for the supply of fuel Ambient Heat – Thermal 1,163
for electricity generation 57 61
Jobs per installed GW of power plants 1,093 1,247

Analysis of job creation per PJ or GW shows that

the 100% renewable scenario would create more
jobs than the Base scenario. In 2030, it is esti-
mated that 61 jobs will be created for each PJ of
primary energy consumed7. In the Base scenario,
only 57 jobs are created per PJ. With regard to
construction, manufacture, maintenance and op-
eration of power plants, in the Energy [R]evolution
scenario 1,247 jobs would be created per installed
GW in 2030, while the Base scenario would create
1,093 or 12% fewer jobs.

28 29
 Masthead
GENERAL COORDINATION ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND ENERGY TRANSITION FOR
Greenpeace Brasil INDUSTRY AND OTHER SECTORS
TEAM International Energy Initiative (IEI) and Graduate
Larissa Araujo Rodrigues, Ricardo Baitelo, Renata Nitta Program for Energy Systems Planning at the State
University of Campinas (Unicamp)
COORDINATION
OVERALL MODELLING Gilberto M. Jannuzzi
Institute of Thermodynamic Engineering at the
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) TEAM
(German Aerospace Center) Humberto Jantim

TEAM
Sonja Simon, Hans Christian Gils, Tobias Fichter EDITORS
Marina Yamaoka
Thaís Herrero
COOPERATION AND REVISION
Energy Planning Program at the Alberto Luiz Coim- REVIEW
bra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Kátia Shimabukuro
Engineering (Coppe) of the Federal University of Rio TRANSL ATION
de Janeiro (UFRJ) Glenn C. Johnston
COORDINATION DESIGN & L AYOUT
Roberto Schaeffer, Alexandre Sklo and Andre Estúdio Barca
Frossard Pereira de Lucena
TEAM
Rafael Soria, Bruno Scola Lopes da Cunha, Rodrigo
Milani, Mariana Império, Fernanda Guedes, Cindy
Carolina Viviescas

TRANSPORT SECTOR
Freight Transport Laboratory (LTC) at the Alberto
Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and
Research in Engineering (Coppe) of the Federal
University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
COORDINATION
Márcio de Almeida D’Agosto
TEAM
Daniel Neves Schmitz Gonçalves, Fabio dos Santos
Gonçalves, Cíntia Machado de Oliveira, Fabiana do
Couto Assumpção

30 31
32