Educational Bulletin #08-1

A publication of the Desert Protective Council www.dpcinc.org

Global Warming: Whither California’s Deserts?

Scientific Presentations at the 1st Climate Change and the California Deserts Conference
Hosted by Defenders of Wildlife & Mojave Desert Land Trust, Joshua Tree, Feb. 8, 2008
report by Lawrence Hogue

In any modern discussion about the fate of individual species and their habitats, global
warming is the 800-pound gorilla in the room. But what if we’re so focused on this gorilla
that we never see the five-ton elephant looming behind us? That was the surprising
question bighorn sheep biologist John Wehausen posed at the first Conference on Climate
Change and the California Deserts. And this was just one surprise of several during the
day-long meeting.
Since many desert species live on the extremes of temperature and aridity, it may
seem reasonable to assume that global warming would push many of them to extinction.
For instance, several researchers have predicted that the Joshua tree will become extinct in
its namesake national park, and will only survive – if at all – in small enclaves farther north
in California and Nevada. But the consensus that emerged from two presentations at this
conference was that, while global warming is indeed real, happening now, and caused by
human activities, exactly how it will affect California’s deserts remains an open question.
As with most scientific questions, the details are more important than the overall picture.
And when scientists dig into those details, few clear predictions emerge.

The 7 Ps: Proper Prior Planning Prevents Putting Priorities out of Place
Dr. Robert Wilkinson, Adjunct Instructor for Water Policy at UC-Santa Barbara,
spoke on the future of water resources as California feels the effects of global warming.
Wilkinson began with a short presentation on the realities of climate change in general,
and then moved into specific planning consequences for California’s resources. He began
with a quote from John Holdren, Chairman of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science, that is probably the most definite authoritative statement to date
on the rate and existence of global climate change: “The world is already experiencing
‘dangerous anthropogenic climate interference.’ The question now is whether we can avoid
catastrophic interference.” For a scientific statement, that’s the equivalent of ringing the
alarm on a five-alarm fire.
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Unfortunately, while the global-scale effects of climate change may be clear,

predicting what will happen in any given region may be much more difficult. And this
seems especially true in the California desert. For instance, one clear theme of global
warming models is that wet (and generally more northerly) areas will get wetter while dry
(and generally more southerly) areas will get drier. But California’s deserts fall right on the
boundary between these two regions. Depending on which climate model one chooses, our
deserts could become either wetter or drier. Since precipitation is one of the chief determi-
nants of vegetation growth, and vegetation in turn structures the entire ecosystem, exactly
how global warming will affect California’s deserts becomes very difficult to predict.
Wilkinson emphasized the effect this uncertainty has on planning responses to global
warming. He warned that some “solutions” meant to mitigate global warming, such as
corn-based ethanol, may create more greenhouse gases than they save. In another example,
one prominent global warming scientist at Scripps Institute of Oceanography recently
stated that environmentalists should “step aside” in their opposition to additional dams in
California, which some view as a vital adaptation to a more rapidly melting Sierra snow-
pack. Yet Wilkinson believes that the argument for more surface storage is weakened by
uncertainty over where exactly to place dams, given the uncertainty about future precipi-
tation patterns. A second weakness of the “dam solution” is that dams inherently serve the
conflicting purposes of water storage and flood control, and the latter purpose will become
more important as snowpacks melt more quickly. Wilkinson also pointed to the large
energy consumption of our “surface storage and transfer” water system. The largest energy
use in California is for moving water around the state. Currently, we burn coal in Nevada
to make the taps flow in San Diego. In some places in California, more energy is used to
move water than would be needed to desalinate sea water. Clearly, adapting to the effects
of global warming with fossil-fuel-based solutions is self-defeating.
As with many environmental problems, conservation is the most effective, but
overlooked, solution. In the case of water, Wilkinson estimated that only one million
additional acre-feet could be stored behind additional dams, while three million acre-feet of
water could be saved through urban efficiency, at far less cost. Treatments such as
bioretention swales and plantings not only reduce irrigation demand (which accounts for
50% of urban water use), they reduce urban flooding and protect the quality of local
groundwater. Relying more on local groundwater will in turn reduce the greenhouse gas
contribution of importing distant water. Such solutions have the added benefit of being
effective no matter the uncertainty about the specific effects of climate change.

Los Ovis: Will the Sheep Survive?

Dr. John Wehausen, a field ecologist who has studied the population ecology of
California’s bighorn sheep for 33 years, spoke on the prognosis for bighorn survival in a
warming world. Like Wilkinson, Wehausen emphasized that our actions in response to
global warming need to be based on data and understanding of cause and effect, not on
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guesswork. To accurately predict how global warming will affect specific species and
ecosystems, Wehausen said we need to understand two inter-related factors: first, the
ecological effects of climate variables; and second, exactly how those variables are changing.
For many ecosystems, this kind of understanding is lacking because ecosystems are complex
and long-term data sets are lacking. Further, resorting to his gorilla vs. elephant metaphor,
we need to understand all of the factors affecting a given species, not just climate change.
Fortunately, in the case of desert bighorn sheep, we do have a lot of long-term data,
much of it from Wehausen’s own work. He summarized the commonly understood habitat
needs of the bighorn: steep, rocky, open slopes that provide clear views of approaching
predators, and difficult terrain over which the sheep can escape, using their remarkable
agility. The vegetation structure on these slopes must be low in order to provide the open
sightlines sheep require for safety. As Wehausen put it, the sheep essentially trade off
nutrients for safety. Because their annual “nutrient income” is so low, they also have a low
reproductive rate, with each ewe capable of bearing only one lamb each year. Combine this
low reproductive rate with the fact that desert bighorn are spread out in small groups
(“populations”) inhabiting small, isolated mountain ranges, and these sheep are already
walking a knife-edge of extinction. Indeed, more than 20 populations went extinct over the
course of the 20th century.
How will global climate change affect the bighorn? It’s hard to know, says Wehausen.
This is not only because different climate change models predict different levels of
warming and precipitation, but because the specific amount and timing of those variables
make such a difference in bighorn survival. Annual rainfall and annual average
temperature are both meaningless for the bighorn, Wehausen said. For instance, warmer
temperatures in December have been shown to be good for bighorn survival. So global
warming could be good for them. But higher temperatures in February and March are bad
for bighorn survival, because higher temperatures in these months tend to cut short plant
growth at a critical time for the lambs’ diet.
With rainfall, February is the most important month for adequate precipitation in
terms of bighorn survival, with October the second most important. Decreasing rainfall in
those months would certainly put a strain on bighorn survival. Increasing rainfall would
only be good to a point, however. Wehausen found that there was a huge gain in bighorn
nutrition from one to five inches of annual rainfall. But in heavy rain years, lamb survival
actually decreased, because the extra nutritional benefits were outweighed by an increase in
insect-borne respiratory diseases that flourish in wet years. The changes in rainfall brought
about by global warming may be beneficial or harmful for the bighorn, depending on
when, where and how much. Since we can’t even be sure of the basic answer to whether
the deserts will get wetter or drier, the effect on bighorn is impossible to predict.
So it’s hard to know what effect the 800-pound gorilla of global warming will have on
the bighorn. But what about that elephant in the room that Wehausen mentioned? This
elephant has a fancy, scientific name: “metapopulation fragmentation.” What scientists
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originally viewed as distinct, self-sufficient populations in each mountain range of

California’s deserts are actually much larger metapopulations, or possibly one
metapopulation, with genetic flow between populations vital to the metapopulation’s
survival. Wehausen’s protégé, Clinton Epps, has shown that closely connected populations
of desert bighorn have the highest genetic diversity (and thus the best chances for survival),
while more isolated populations have the least diversity. And what has isolated those
populations? The main culprits are freeways and canals. Epps’ studies showed that there is
no gene flow between populations in adjacent ranges divided by Interstate 40.
Unlike the uncertain future presented by global warming, the problem of meta-
population fragmentation has predictable outcomes (the likely extinction of small, isolated
bighorn populations), scientifically identified causes (freeways and canals), and obvious,
though expensive, solutions (wide, open bridges over the barriers).
Like Wilkinson, Wehausen believes there are ways to plan for the onset of global
warming despite uncertainties about its specific effects. Bridging the gaps between bighorn
populations, and thus fostering more genetic diversity across the bighorn’s range, is one
way. Another is simply to increase the numbers of bighorn everywhere. Population
persistence for bighorn has been shown to depend on more rainfall (to a point), higher
elevations, reliable springs, and a lack of nearby domestic sheep. While we have no control
over the first two, and the last has largely been solved in most areas, people can provide
reliable “springs” in the form of guzzlers for bighorn.
The controversial topic of guzzlers, never popular among desert wilderness advocates,
brings us to one of the thorniest issues created by the problem of global warming. To what
extent are we willing to become the Earth’s “zookeepers” in order to rescue species from
extinction caused by our own burning of fossil fuels? To borrow from Bill McKibben, if I’m
hiking through wilderness in Joshua Tree National Park and I see no Joshua trees and no
bighorn scat because of global warming, am I still in a “wilderness”? On the other hand, if
humans take over the role once played by the Shasta ground sloth in spreading the Joshua
trees’ seeds (helping them to follow their habitat northward or to higher elevations), are the
trees (and the place) no longer wild? If we provide additional water to support threatened
bighorn populations, are the sheep no longer wild? And finally, can we know enough about
these complex systems even to dare manipulating them more than we already have?
Lawrence Hogue is the author of All the Wild and Lonely Places: Journeys in a Desert
Landscape, and communications coordinator for the Desert Protective Council.

Online Resources
High Country News: Unnatural preservation. http://www.hcn.org/servlets/hcn.Article?article_id=17481
Bighorn sheep threatened by climate change. http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2004/02/10_sheep.shtml
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Vegetation Responses to Climate Change in the Southwest. http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/posters/P-

EC4.2_Cole.pdf
NPR: Outlook Bleak for Joshua Trees. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17628032
NPCA Park Stories: The Canaries in the Coal Mine. http://www.npca.org/media_center/podcasts/park-stories-the-canaries-
in.html