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Too far too soon. Our reverse valuation exercise suggests that investors have not only Price (`): 1,292
priced in a robust energy segment performance in RIL’s current valuations, but also Target price (`): 985
ascribed the EV of leading players in key sectors that are being targeted by RIL’s platform
BSE-30: 38,694
narrative—Bharti’s India business (telecom), Avenue Supermarts (retail), Flipkart
(e-commerce) and key players in the media sector (content ecosystem). The recent sharp
rally leaves limited scope for disappointment on that narrative, which may not be ruled
out given well-funded competition in key segments. Reiterate SELL.
C o mpan y d ata an d valuatio n summary
Reliance Industries
Stock data Forecasts/Valuations 2018 2019E 2020E
52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 1,296-765 EPS (Rs) 59.1 69.5 78.0
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 7,643.1 EPS growth (%) 16.9 17.6 12.4
Shareholding pattern (%) P/E (X) 21.9 18.6 16.5
Promoters 46.2 Sales (Rs bn) 3,916.8 5,135.4 5,262.3
FIIs 26.5 Net profits (Rs bn) 349.9 411.5 462.4
MFs 2.7 EBITDA (Rs bn) 641.8 845.4 986.1
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M EV/EBITDA (X) 15.6 12.3 10.5
Absolute 14.3 40.3 64.7 ROE (%) 11.6 12.2 12.1
Rel. to BSE-30 10.3 26.6 34.5 Div. Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.5
Current valuation of RIL = energy business + Bharti + DMart + Flipkart + media sector
Our reverse valuation exercise for RIL assuming 7X EV/EBITDA to its energy business implies that
the stock is already ascribing `5.5 tn or US$79 bn to the company’s consumer/technology
platform business. The market’s ascribed value is now greater than the cumulative EVs of
leading players in each sector that are perhaps being targeted by RIL—Bharti’s India business
(telecom, including towers and DTH), Avenue Supermarts (retail), Flipkart (e-commerce) and key
players such as Zee, Sun TV and DishTV in the media sector (content ecosystem).
Expensive on conventional as well as unconventional metrics
We also find the stock expensive on several conventional metrics such as P/E, EV/EBITDA or P/B,
as well as unconventional metrics such as EV per subscriber. RIL’s headline valuation multiples
are more than reasonable at 16.5X FY2020E EPS, 10.5X FY2020E EBITDA and 2.3X March 2019E
book value in the context of moderate earnings growth and low RoEs of ~12%. If we remove
the fair valuation of nearly ex-growth energy business at 12X P/E or 7X EV/EBITDA, the implied
valuation multiples for RIL’s consumer/technology business are fairly expensive even on FY2022
basis at 19X P/E and 10X EV/EBITDA. Further, the reverse valuation of US$79 bn for RIL’s
consumer/technology platform business implies a value of nearly US$200 per user on a
cumulative customer base of 400 mn, which is nearly double of Jio’s current base of 215 mn.
E-commerce and digital content landscape may be more challenging than telecom
Tarun Lakhotia
RIL’s success in telecom so far, in terms of subscribers/revenues market share, has been fueled
tarun.lakhotia@kotak.com
by an onslaught of capex to build capacity advantage and extended period of attractive offers Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0875
for acquisition as well as retention of customers. Jio’s strategy has deteriorated the return
Rohit Chordia
potential of the business at least in the medium term, in our view, even as it led to accelerated rohit.chordia@kotak.com
consolidation in the industry. RIL’s imminent foray in e-commerce business will face tougher Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0885
competition from the deep pockets of (1) Amazon, (2) Walmart-backed Flipkart and (3) Alibaba- Akshay Bhor
backed PayTM Mall, and if it chooses to adopt a strategy similar to telecom, RIL’s investors akshay.bhor@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0876
should get ready for a significant cash outlay for an extended period of time. RIL’s digital media
and entertainment platform has its own set of challenges with several companies eyeing for the
pie, including (1) global internet behemoths such as Amazon (Prime), Facebook, Google (YouTube)
and Netflix, (2) telecom players like Bharti (Airtel TV), Idea-Vodafone Play, and (3) domestic
broadcasters’ OTT offerings such as HotStar, Zee5 and SonyLIV.
Kotak Institutional Equities Research
kotak.research@kotak.com
Mumbai: +91-22-4336-0000
For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
Energy Reliance Industries
Exhibit 1: Current valuation of RIL = energy business + Bharti + DMart + Flipkart + media sector
Reverse valuation exercise of RIL
Rs bn US$ bn Rs/share
Current valuation of RIL
Market capitalization 7,651 109.3 1,292 Adjusted for treasury shares
Effective consolidated net debt 2,589 37.0 437 Including capex creditors and deferred liabilities
Enterprise value (EV) of RIL 10,240 146.3 1,728
Exhibit 2: Our reverse valuation exercise implies an expensive 19X FY2022E EPS and 10X FY2022E
EBITDA for RIL’s consumer/digital businesses
Reverse valuation exercise for RIL (Rs bn)
Exhibit 3: Our SoTP valuation of RIL is ₹985 per share based on FY2020 estimates
Sum-of-the-parts valuation of Reliance Industries, FY2020E basis (Rs)
Notes:
(a) We use FY2022E EBITDA for upstream and discount it back to FY2020E.
(b) We use DCF-based valuation for digital business.
(c) We use 5.92 bn shares (excluding treasury shares) for per share computations.
Exhibit 4: Major assumptions for RIL's refining segment, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-22E (US$/bbl)
Exhibit 5: Major assumptions for RIL's petchem segment, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-22E (US$/ton)
Notes:
(a) Volumes include Recron Malaysia from FY2019E onwards.
Exhibit 6: Financial model of Reliance Jio, March fiscal year-ends, 2018-22E (Rs bn)
Exhibit 7: Segment break-up of consolidated EBITDA, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-22E (Rs bn)
Exhibit 8: Standalone profit model, balance sheet, cash model, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-22E (Rs mn)
Exhibit 9: Consolidated profit model, balance sheet, cash model, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-22E (Rs bn)
Ratios (%)
Debt/equity 69.8 73.6 78.0 74.6 74.5 78.2 74.1 63.2 53.6
Net debt/equity 25.9 51.6 71.8 84.8 80.0 84.7 74.2 64.6 49.5
RoAE 11.2 10.7 10.5 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.5
RoACE 7.9 7.0 7.0 7.2 8.1 8.6 8.6 9.0 9.1
Adjusted RoACE 11.3 11.3 12.3 13.1 12.0 9.0 7.9 8.3 8.5
CRoCI 9.7 7.7 6.6 6.2 7.4 8.0 8.6 9.1 9.5
Adjusted CRoCI 15.9 13.5 11.8 12.2 10.2 8.9 9.2 9.7 10.1
"I, Tarun Lakhotia, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report."
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for
which Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
50%
provided investment banking services within the
previous 12 months.
40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
31.3% expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
30% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to
25.4%
deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce
21.4% 21.9%
= We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over
20% the next 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver
less than -5% returns over the next 12 months. O ur
10% target prices are also on a 12-month horizon basis.
5.0% 4.5%
2.0% These ratings are used illustratively to comply with
0.5%
applicable regulations. As of 31/03/2018 Kotak
0%
Institutional Equities Investment Research had
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL
investment ratings on 207 equity securities.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Other definitions
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designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and target price, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
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