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Copyright 2018
HEAVILY INDEBTED POOR COUNTRIES
INITIATIVE (HIPC), ECONOMIC STABILITY, AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AFRICA
*Henri Atangana Ondoa is an Associate Professor in the Faculty of Economics and Management
of the University of Yaounde II (Cameroon) where he obtained a Ph.D. in economy in collaboration
with the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) and is a researcher at the University’s
Centre of Studies and Research in Economics and Management (CEREG). The author has taken part
in numerous impact assessments (UNDP, International Development Research Centre, ECA,
AFROBOTER, and Rio Tinto Alcan) in addition to holding internships with the IMF, UNCTAD,
and AERC. He worked with SECOR Canada on the estimation of socio-economic effects related to
their activities in Cameroon and on the UNDP’s capacity assessment of Cameroonian institutions.
His articles have been published in International Labor Review, Labor History, Economics Bulletin,
and African Development Review, as a sampling.
Dickson Thomas Ndamsa, a Senior Lecturer at the University of Bamenda, earned a B.Sc. in
economics, a Ma^ıtrise in economics with emphasis on quantitative methods, a DEA in mathematical
economics and econometrics, and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Yaoundé II. The
author has participated in numerous international forums on economic development. He has
benefited from the AERC training on Service Delivery Indicators in addition to publishing
articles in journals such as Revue d’Economie, African Integration and Development Review,
Journal of Entrepreneurship: Research & Practice, Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, and
International Academic Journal of Economics and Finance. He is a consultant at the CEREG and
serves as a Consultant/Expert at CPAC on issues of sustainable development.
Achille Jean Baptiste Nsoe Nkouli, a Lecturer in the Faculty of Economics and Management of
the University of Yaounde II, earned a master’s degree in economy, mathematics, and econometrics
(continued).
factors such as falling commodity prices, ineffective economic policies, and debt
crises. To address these problems, many African countries have undertaken
structural reforms with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World
Bank. For instance, since 1996 several initiatives have been undertaken by the
international community to reduce the debt of poor countries. The Heavily In-
debted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) was launched in 1996 by the IMF and
World Bank with the aim of ensuring that no country categorized as a “Least
Developed Country” (LDC) faces a debt burden it cannot manage. There is also
the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) launched in 2005. The MDRI al-
lows for 100 percent relief on eligible debts by three multilateral institutions the
IMF, the World Bank, and the African Development Fund (AfDF) for countries
completing the HIPC Initiative process.1
In 1999, this initiative was coupled with other measures in order to provide
faster, deeper, and broader debt relief and strengthened the links between debt
relief, poverty reduction, and social policies. To date, debt reduction packages
under the HIPC Initiative have been approved for 36 countries, 30 of them in
Africa, providing U.S. $75 billion in debt-service relief over time. Three addi-
tional African countries (Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan) are eligible for HIPC Ini-
tiative assistance, which are Pre-Decision-Point Countries, and Chad is an interim
country, that is, between Decision and Completion Point.2 To benefit from these
debt reductions, the country must, among other conditions, develop a Poverty
Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) through a broad-based participatory process in
the country.
The consequences of these reforms on African economies are well documented
but have never been estimated. According to the African Development Bank,
Africa achieved positive annual real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates
owing to favorable external conditions and to improvements in domestic eco-
nomic policies in particular, a recovery in the world economy, rising commodity
prices, improved macro-economic stability, and country-specific developments.3
The International Monetary Fund4 attested that the policies toward free trade are
among the more important factors promoting economic growth and convergence
in developing countries, while the Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD)5 reports that more open and outward-oriented economies
and a Ph.D. in industrial economics from that institution; he is also a researcher at CEREG.
Previously, the author was responsible for economic and statistical studies at Cameroon’s power
utility (AES-SONEL) and worked as a consultant on several energy projects at the national level
(Electricity Sector Development Plan in Cameroon) as well as at the sub-regional level (the Central
African Power Pool) and continent-wide. The author was Cameroon’s focal point during the
consolidation of the Association of Power Utilities of Africa database. He holds professional training
certificates from SNC LAVALIN/Hydro QUEBEC in the field of electricity planning and pricing.
His articles have been published in The Journal of Energy and Development.
AFRICA: HIPC, ECONOMIC STABILITY, & GROWTH 101
consistently outperform those with restrictive trade and foreign investment re-
gimes. In a similar vein, the World Bank6 argues that international trade opens up
unprecedented opportunity for growth and development. However, market re-
forms undertaken since the debt crisis of the early 1980s failed to correct the
failures of the manufacturing sub-sector in most LDCs. Trade liberalization has
even exposed local industries of LDCs to competition for which they were un-
prepared. As a result, large parts of manufacturing have disappeared over the last
20 years in Africa. This process of de-industrialization was more pronounced in
countries with a low level of development. Instead of reducing their structural
vulnerabilities, trade liberalization has increased it. In short, this was premature
liberalization in LDCs, given their level of development.7
The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of Heavily Indebted
Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) on economic growth and economic stability in 40
African countries. This paper also identifies the determinants of economic growth
and economic stability. In this perspective, this article is organized as follows: we
first present the literature review, the second section develops the methodology,
and the third section provides the empirical results.
Literature Review
There is a strong debate about the consequences of IMF and World Bank re-
forms on economies. Indeed, with an empirical growth model that controls for
other determinants of growth, J. Butkiewicz and H. Yanikkaya showed that World
Bank lending stimulates growth in some cases, primarily by increasing public
investment.8 Fund lending is either neutral or detrimental to growth. The channel
for this effect is a negative impact of Fund lending on public as well as private
investment. L. Dicks-Mireaux et al. found significant beneficial effects of IMF
support on output growth and the debt/service ratio but no effects on inflation.9
However, the World Bank/IMF model is likely to deindustrialize the existing
manufacturing base in Africa without encouraging any significant replacement.10
A. Dreher distinguished several channels through which the IMF reforms could
influence economic growth, among them being advice to policy makers, money
disbursed under its programs, and its conditionality.11 The same author used
a panel for the period 1970–2000 to show that IMF programs reduce growth rates
when their endogeneity is accounted for. In addition, compliance with condi-
tionality mitigates this negative effect, while the overall impact, however, remains
negative. According to M. Gradstein, rules always lead to faster capital accu-
mulation and growth, but political support for them is only likely to occur in
a stable economy.12 According to W. Easterly, adjustment programs of the
IMF and World Bank had a positive effect on policies or growth for the period
1989-1999.13
102 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
The failure of IMF and World Bank programs is sometimes caused by poor
governance of these two institutions and by their conditionality. Indeed, good
governance could be improved within the IMF and the World Bank. Specifically,
these institutions should change their constitutional rules, their balancing of
stakeholders’ rights, their decision-making rules, and practices. If these conditions
are met, their staffing and expertise will need to be considered.14 According to
J. Svensson, competition among recipients allows the donor to make inferences
about common shocks, which otherwise conceal the recipient’s choice of action.15
This enables the donor to give aid more efficiently. However, C. Kilby showed
evidence that World Bank structural adjustment loan disbursements are less de-
pendent on macroeconomic performance in countries aligned with the United
States.16 The probability of success of adjustment programs is positively related to
the level of individual uncertainty and the speed of learning about the benefits of
stabilization, and negatively related to the cost of financing the budget deficit
during the first stage and, under certain conditions, to the degree of political un-
certainty.17 In ethnically divided societies, economic reform may be completed not
despite of ethnic conflict but because of it.18
Stabilization causes economic growth for a number of reasons. For instance,
increased price stability improves the utilization of capital and thus increases the
full employment level of output in the long run. Furthermore, the static output gain
from stabilization is captured in a simple formula in which the gain is approxi-
mately proportional to the square of the original inflation distortion.19 J. Woo
established a negative relation between macroeconomic volatility and growth in
a large sample of countries over the period of 1960–2000.20 International capital
mobility affects growth in each economy directly through the size of domestic
investment and indirectly through the aggregate saving rate. Under certain con-
ditions, the indirect effect may dominate the direct effect so that international
capital mobility raises output in the poor country and globally, although net capital
flows are in the direction of the rich country.21
C. Kirkpatrick and Z. Onis studied the impact of IMF stabilization programs on
inflation performance in LDCs during the 1970s.22 They showed that the success
of a program in affecting a change in the inflationary process is influenced by the
structural characteristics of the economy and, in particular, by the stage of in-
dustrialization attained. In certain countries, IMF programs increase inflation and
reduce the labor share of income. Negotiation of conditions for assistance imposes
heavy costs upon recipients and gross macroeconomic distortions are overcome.
Indeed, IMF programs support output growth and the debt/service ratio but have
no effects on inflation.23
According to A. Galindo et al., liberalization increases the efficiency with
which investment funds are allocated.24 Freeing of trade by India leads to greater
domestic price stability even though world prices are more volatile. Indeed, under
liberalized trade, subsidies are more effective in stabilizing domestic prices
AFRICA: HIPC, ECONOMIC STABILITY, & GROWTH 103
Geographic and institutional factors are also major determinants of IMF and
World Bank programs’ success. For instance, the geographic predisposition to
trade is an important determinant of economic volatility. According to A. Malik
and J. Temple, remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and
to experience greater volatility in output growth.39 The international development
community has advocated various development paradigms, but countries fol-
lowing these paradigms have often performed poorly because institutions are weak
in developing nations. For instance, production is high when productive capacity
is high, and when the policy is appropriate in the country-specific circumstances
and implemented honestly. Aid inflows are high when the policy is close to in-
ternational development community programs. Consequently, countries with low
productive capacity and high corruption resulting from weak political institutions
follow the paradigm more closely. For these reasons, development paradigms have
a tendency to fail because they are primarily followed by countries that would fail
anyway.40 According to R. Larsen and C. Mamosso, foreign aid to Niger has ig-
nored grievances of grave environmental impacts and rampant institutional fail-
ures while a crisis discourse on desertification and food insecurity diverts attention
from geopolitical interests in mineral wealth.41 Furthermore, aid delivery remains
insufficient to address structural deficiencies such as lack of investment, poor
human capital, and lack of democracy.
Political factors are other crucial determinants. In this regard, the study of
Ari A. Aisen and F. Veiga showed that greater political instability leads to higher
seigniorage, especially in less democratic and socially polarized countries, with
high inflation, low access to domestic and external debt financing, and with higher
turnover in their central banks.42 During periods of elections, IMF programs al-
ways break down in the recipient countries, particularly in less democratic
countries. Economic variables also matter since IMF program interruptions are
significantly more likely in states with high government consumption, high levels
of short-term debt, and low GDP per capita at program initiation.43 The prolonged
use made of IMF resources by a number of member countries is explained by the
fact that the IMF is a source of temporary balance of payments support.44
Methodology
In this section, we present the data and the empirical model used to investigate
the impact of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative on economic per-
formance in Africa.
The Data: Data employed in this study are from the World Bank, that is, the
World Development Indicators (WDI) and the Worldwide Governance Indicators
(WGI). The period of study is 1990-2012. We choose this period because the
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative was launched in 1996 and some
AFRICA: HIPC, ECONOMIC STABILITY, & GROWTH 105
African countries had begun to benefit from the effects of this initiative in 2000.
The geographical area of the study covers 40 African countries, with the exception
of South Sudan and 12 African countries that joined the HIPC Initiative and
reached the decision point after the year 2000. These countries are: Burundi, the
Central African Republic (CAR), Congo Democratic Republic, Congo Republic,
Ethiopia, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Chad, Comoros, Cote d’Ivoire, and Togo.
We exclude these countries because the baseline in this analysis is the year 2000.
The treated group of 18 countries joined the HIPC Initiative and had reached the
decision point in the year 2000 (see table 1). Another 22 African countries have
not joined the HIPC Initiative; this last group is a control group.
Table 2 presents some descriptive statistics. We can observe that for the period
1990-2012, the African economies were not stabilized. Indeed, during this period,
the average rate of external balance of goods and services as the percentage of
GDP is estimated at -12.79 percent. In some countries, this statistic exceeds
344 percent. We also observe that the average level of inflation is very high
Table 1
LIST OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES THAT HAVE REACHED THE DECISION POINT ON THE
a
HIPC INITIATIVE
a
HIPC = Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative; CAR = Central African Republic; Congo
Dem. R.= Democratic Republic of Congo; Congo Rep. = Republic of Congo (also called Congo-
Brazzaville); and Sao Tome & Pri. = Sao Tome and Principe.
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), Debt Relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor
Countries (HIPC) Initiative (Washington, D.C.: IMF, 2014).
106 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
Table 2
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, 1990–2012
Std.
Variable Obs. Mean Dev. Min. Max.
(52.6 percent) because of Zimbabwe (without Zimbabwe the level of inflation falls
to 10 percent). The external debt stocks (in percentage of exports of goods, ser-
vices, and primary income) is equal to 404.17 and the public expenditures exceed
total public income since the average level of cash surplus/deficit in percentage of
AFRICA: HIPC, ECONOMIC STABILITY, & GROWTH 107
GDP is negative and equal to -1.23 percent. However, some macroeconomic in-
dicators such as GDP, gross capital formation (in percentage of GDP), foreign
direct investment, and net inflows (in percentage of GDP) increased in Africa
during the period 1990-2012. For instance, the growth rate of GDP is 4.63 percent
and African states devoted on average 23.46 percent of their GDP to gross capital
formation. Concerning the control variables, it can be observed from table 2 that
the average gross enrollment rate in primary school stands at 91.96 percent.
However, in certain countries like Mali or Eritrea, the gross enrollment ratio in
primary school sometimes does not exceed 20 percent. The average GDP per
capita (in constant 2005 U.S. dollars) is $1,737 dollars. But in some African
countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, the GDP per capita does not
exceed $150. The quality of governance is poor in Africa owing to the average
values of the following governance indicators: control of corruption, regulatory
quality, and political stability, which are negative.
Empirical Model: To investigate the effect of Heavily Indebted Poor Coun-
tries Initiative on economic stability and on economic growth, one can use the
computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Indeed, this model is generally
used to simulate the economy-wide impact of a range of hypothetical policy le-
vers, including: increased government spending, the elimination of tariff barriers,
and an improvement in total factor productivity.45 However, we must build the
social accounting matrix to evaluate the effect of a policy with the CGE. Yet the
social accounting matrices have not been developed in all African countries or are
not regularly updated. For this reason, we will use the difference-in-difference
(DID) approach to estimate the effect of the HIPC Initiative on economic stability
and on economic growth.
The difference-in-difference treatment effects have been widely used when the
evaluation of a given intervention entails the collection of panel data or repeated
cross sections. Because DID integrates the advances of the fixed effects estimators
with the causal inference analysis when unobserved events or characteristics
confound the interpretations. Furthermore, DID estimations offer an alternative
reaching the problem of unobserved characteristics by combining it with observed
or complementary information. Additionally, the DID is a flexible form of causal
inference because it can be combined with some other procedures, such as the
Kernel.46
It should be recalled that once a country reaches the decision point, it may
immediately begin receiving interim relief on its debt service falling due. The
reader should also keep in mind that, to reach the completion point, the country
must: (1) establish a further track record of good performance under programs
supported by loans from the IMF and the World Bank, (2) implement satisfactorily
key reforms agreed at the decision point, and (3) adopt and implement its Poverty
Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for at least one year. If a country has met these
108 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
criteria, it can reach its completion point, which allows it to receive the full debt
relief committed at the decision point.47 The purpose of the HIPC Initiative is to
address the development needs of low-income countries and make sure that debt
sustainability is maintained over time. For debt reduction to have a tangible impact
on poverty, the additional money needs to be spent on programs that benefit the
poor. Among the conditions, eligible countries were supposed to increase mark-
edly their expenditures on health, education, and other social services such as
access to improved water. On average, such spending is about five times the
amount of debt-service payments.48 From this perspective, equation (1) specifies
the model to be estimated.
Yi;t ¼ a þ bTreati;t þ cPosti;t þ d Treati;t Posti;t þ ei;t ð1Þ
In equation (1), Treati,t is a binary indicator (“turns on” from 0 to 1) for being in
the treatment group; Posti,t is a binary indicator for the period after treatment, here,
the decision point; Treati,tPosti,t is the interaction factor; i is the country; t is the
year; and Y is the outcome variable. We consider two types of indicators: those of
economic stability and those of economic growth.
The indicators of economic stability are: external balance on goods and ser-
vices (as a percentage of GDP); cash surplus/deficit of public finance (as a per-
centage of GDP); and inflation, consumer prices (annual percentage).
The indicators of economic growth are: GDP per capita growth; gross capital
formation or gross.
In equation (1) parameter a is the mean outcome for the control group on the
baseline; b is the single difference between treated and control groups on the
baseline; d is the DID or impact; a + c is the mean outcome for the control group in
the follow-up; a + b is the mean outcome for the treated group on the baseline, and
a + b + c + d is the mean outcome for the treated group in the follow-up. The study
covers the period 1990-2012.
Equation (1) allows us to estimate the effects of the HIPC Initiative on in-
dicators of economic performance and not to identify other determinants of eco-
nomic performance. For this reason, we add the control variables in equation (1) as
specified in equation (2).
Yi;t ¼ a þ bTreati;t þ cPosti;t þ d Treati;t Posti;t þ Xi;t Bk
X
2012
þ ah yearh þ ei;t ð2Þ
h¼1990
Empirical Results
Table 3
a
VARIABLES USED
(continued)
AFRICA: HIPC, ECONOMIC STABILITY, & GROWTH 111
Table 3 (continued)
a
VARIABLES USED
(continued)
112 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
Table 3 (continued)
a
VARIABLES USED
a
GDP = gross domestic product; WDI = World Bank Development Indicators; WGI =
Worldwide Governance Indicators.
words, the initial difference in terms of trade deficit between the control group and
the treated group stood at 10.11 percent. After the decision point, the average level
of trade balance increased from -20.19 percent to -15.28 percent for the control
group. But for the treated group and during the same period, the trade balance of
goods and services decreased from -10.08 percent to -13.258 percent and the
AFRICA: HIPC, ECONOMIC STABILITY, & GROWTH 113
Table 4
DETERMINANTS AND IMPACTS OF THE HIPC INITIATIVE ON ECONOMIC
a
PERFORMANCE IN AFRICA
External
Inflation/ Gross balance
consumer capital on goods
prices formation and
Variables annual % of GDP services GDP growth
(continued)
114 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
Table 4 (continued)
DETERMINANTS AND IMPACTS OF THE HIPC INITIATIVE ON ECONOMIC
a
PERFORMANCE IN AFRICA
External
Inflation/ Gross balance
consumer capital on goods
prices formation and
Variables annual % of GDP services GDP growth
1.908**
Political stability (0.931)
6.418*** 0.016*
Control of corruption (1.610) (0.009)
12.39*** 25.41*** -20.19*** 0.02***
Constant (2.06) (0.835) (7.051) (0.011)
Observations 563 444 527 257
Number of countries 40 40 40 40
2
Centered R 0.9546 0.9235 0.9456 0.931
316.8*** 302.7*** 311.0*** 298.5***
F-statistic (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Kleibergen-paap rk LM 33.01*** 27.02*** 25.1*** 28.1***
statistic (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) 90.000)
0.322 0.616 0.56 0.78
Hansen J statistic (0.724) (0.365) (0.334) (0.254)
a
*** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; * p<0.1; standard errors in parentheses; HIPC = heavily indebted poor
countries; GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Based upon authors’ empirical results.
difference in terms of trade deficit between the two group decreases from 10.11
percent to -2.13 percent, respectively. This means that the HIPC Initiative in-
creased the trade deficit of about -12.24 percent on the treated group (see also
figure 3). This result is explained by trade liberalization advocated by the IMF and
World Bank.
Economic Growth: The effect of the HIPC Initiative on economic growth is
positive. Indeed, in table 4 we observe that, on the baseline, the average level of
GDP per capita growth is 1.91 percent for the control group. The same statistic is
estimated at 0.6 percent for the treated group. The initial difference between the
treated and control group is -1.31 percent. During the second period the growth
rate of GDP per capita increased on average from 1.91 percent to 2.49 percent for
the control group. For the treated group, GDP per capita increased from 0.6 percent
AFRICA: HIPC, ECONOMIC STABILITY, & GROWTH 115
to 5.174 percent (table 4 and figure 4). Thus, at the end of the second period, the
difference between the two groups rose from -1.31 percent to 1.61 percent. In other
words, the two groups have nearly the same growth rate at the end of the second
period. The difference-in-difference, that is, the effect of the HIPC Initiative
on GDP per-capita growth is 2.92 percent, and this result is significant at the
1-percent level. The effect of the HIPC on gross capital formation is also positive
(figure 5). Indeed, the initial levels of gross capital formation (in percentage of
GDP) are 25.414 percent and 21.629 percent for the treated group; the initial
difference between the two groups is -3.785. During the second period, gross
capital formation increased in the treated group from 21.629 percent to 23.74
percent. But for the control group, gross capital formation decreased from
25.414 percent to 22.66 percent. For the second period the difference between
the two groups is 1.098 percent. The difference-in-difference, that is, the effect
of the HIPC on gross capital formation and foreign direct investment (FDI) is
4.88 percent (figure 6).
Growth in Africa: In this sub-section, we present the determinants of eco-
nomic stability and the determinants of economic growth in Africa.
The Determinants of Economic Stability in Africa: The determinants of eco-
nomic stability are presented in table 4. These results show that inflation is pos-
itively affected by external debt, general government final consumption, gross
enrollment rate in primary school, gross capital formation, and total natural re-
sources rents. In addition, inflation is relatively low in the franc Zone because
these countries follow certain principles of monetary policy of the European
Union. This result suggests that the adoption of inflation targeting is an ideal
monetary regime for developing economies and, in addition to reducing inflation
volatility, can drive inflation down to internationally acceptable levels.49 Several
other studies support our results. Indeed, the main driver of short-run inflation in
certain African countries such as Ethiopia and Uganda is a surge in money supply,
accounting for 40 percent and one-third, respectively. In Kenya and Tanzania, oil
prices is another major determinant, accounting for 20 and 26 percent, re-
spectively, although money growth has also made a significant contribution to the
recent increases in inflation in these two countries.50 We must remember that the
countries that have reached the completion point have benefited from resources
that were used to finance social projects. For this reason, growth in money supply
causes inflation through investment and salaries. Indeed, during the 2000s many
African nations increased public investment to build schools and hospitals. Our
study also shows that inflation increases with general government final con-
sumption and public deficits because these public expenditures are always fi-
nanced by taxes. These results were also found by C. Hoon Lim and L. Papi.51
These authors showed that the public-sector deficit and depreciation contributed to
inflation in Turkey. Furthermore, economic growth is also a source of inflation
116 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
Figure 1
EVOLUTION OF INFLATION IN AFRICA, 1990–2012
Figure 2
EVOLUTION OF PUBLIC FINANCE DEFICIT IN AFRICA, 1990–2012
Figure 3
EVOLUTION OF EXTERNAL BALANCE OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN AFRICA,
1990–2012
Figure 4
EVOLUTION OF GROWTH RATE OF GDP PER CAPITA IN AFRICA, 1990–2012
Figure 5
EVOLUTION OF GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION IN AFRICA, 1990–2012
Figure 6
EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) IN AFRICA, 1990–2012
because improved economic performance and sustained oil price increases exert
upward pressure on consumer prices.52
Concerning the determinants of the external balance of goods and services, it
is established that trade deficits increase with general government final con-
sumption and regulatory quality (because of trade liberalization) and decrease
with political stability, control of corruption, total natural resources rents, and
urban population. Indeed, in several African countries, raw materials are the
main sources of economic growth. Economic growth is particularly driven
by commodity exports in some developing nations.53 In Africa, for example,
Equatorial Guinea is an LDC that fortunately had the highest GDP per capita
(U.S. $17,500 in 2010) of the continent. During the last decade, the country
had experienced a higher rate of growth through the sale of oil. According to
M. Majumder, there is a relationship between the external balance of goods and
services and supply-side variables such as import cost, oil price hikes, the ex-
change rate, and production shocks.54 From this perspective, Africa’s external
position improved in 2006 owing to both higher export volumes and continuing
high terms of trade. This performance was due in part to the surge in the price of
metals such as copper owing to buoyant global demand driven mostly by Asian
countries, in particular China and India.55 Political stability and control of cor-
ruption are other major determinants because they improve exchange rate sta-
bility and increase international reserves. According to A. Arfan et al., political
stability is more important than economic freedom in stabilizing balance of
payments.56 In the context of political instability in Egypt, while domestic de-
mand was the driving engine of growth as it contributed 5.1 points, external
demand contracted this growth by 3.3 points with 2.8 points due to an increase
in imports. Despite the gradual depreciation of the Egyptian currency against
the U.S. dollar, inflation in Egypt has reached an average of 7.1 percent in
2011/2012, compared to 10.2 percent recorded in the year 2010/2011.57
The Determinants of Economic Growth in Africa: In table 4, it is shown that
the main determinants of economic growth and physical capital formation are
enrollment in primary school, physical capital, total natural resources rents,
urbanization, control of corruption, and political stability. Indeed, in Africa
economic growth and physical capital formation are sustained by both domestic
and external factors. The latter included external debt cancellation, increases in
the price of raw materials, and private capital inflows in the form of direct
investment and remittances. The main domestic factors are prudent policy
frameworks and improving business climates that helped promote macroeco-
nomic stability and resilience to external shocks.58 Furthermore, in our study,
natural resources abundance has a positive impact on economic growth. This is
not the case in the study of R. Chang et al.59 These authors showed that the ratio
of exports of primary goods to GDP was not significant in explaining growth by
120 THE JOURNAL OF ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
itself; but this variable, however, showed a significant and negative effect on
economic growth when combined with other trade structure variables. Our
results suggest that Africa’s economic growth is a fundamentally factor-input-
driven one, since economic growth increases with natural resources, physical
capital, and enrollment in primary schools. Like the study of D. Yet et al., we
observe that urbanization sustains economic growth in Africa.60 Specifically,
productivity gains, cost of production reductions, and value-added enhance-
ments associated with urbanization can cause growth. It has been shown that
many of the large cities of the developed countries facilitated lower-cost ship-
ment of products to far-flung markets or along trade routes.61 Economic growth
and gross capital formation also are explained by political and economic re-
forms, especially control of corruption, regulation, and political stability. This
result is in tandem with A. Berg et al.62 According to these authors, economic
growth is positively related to control of corruption, democratic institutions,
greater openness to FDI, avoidance of exchange-rate overvaluation, and mac-
roeconomic stability. The reforms also might affect private investment in re-
cipient countries not only through the funds they provide but also via the policy
conditions they include and the transfer of knowledge they imply. To test the
above hypothesis, M. Agostino investigated the impact of these channels on
private investment.63 He showed that backed commitments are associated with
lower investment ratios in the short run and none of the other potential channels
of influence seem to counterbalance this negative impact.
Conclusion
The objective of this paper was to investigate the impact of the Heavily In-
debted Poor Countries Initiative on economic growth and economic stability and
to assess other determinants of economic performance in Africa. In this regard,
this paper employed the DID approach and World Bank data for the period 1990-
2012. We began the study by reviewing related literature in order to identify
the potential determinants of economic performance. Thereafter, we presented
the empirical method used to estimate the impacts and to identify the determi-
nants of economic performance in Africa. The results indicated that the impact
of the initiative on economic performance is mitigated, since it causes economic
growth and economic instability. Concerning the other determinants of eco-
nomic performance, this study found that economic instability is caused by
political instability, external debt, general government final consumption, reg-
ulation (trade liberalization), gross enrollment in primary school, and total
natural resources rents. For economic growth, this study showed that educa-
tion, infrastructure, natural resources, urbanization, regulation, control of corrup-
tion, and political stability are crucial to economic growth in Africa. From this
AFRICA: HIPC, ECONOMIC STABILITY, & GROWTH 121
NOTES
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