How’s The Climate Changing In The Philippines?

Current Climate Trends

in the
Philippines
PAGASA - DOST
• In the Philippines, there are already trends of increasing number
of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days
and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are
generally getting warmer.

• Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have

been more frequent.
Observed 24-hour rainfall – 455mm
 TY Reming (DURIAN) Nov 2006
Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)

TY Milenyo, Sept 2006 June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars)
 ORMOC FLASHFLOOD
November 1991

PANAON ISLAND FLASHFLOOD

Dec 2003

INFANTA & AURORA FLASHFLOOD

Dec 2004

ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE

Feb 2006
 Typhoon Durian [Reming]
Nov. 2006
Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)
June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars) www.

Typhoon “Frank”
June 2008

T. Storm Ketsana [Ondoy] &

Typhoon Parma [Pepeng]
Sept. and Oct. 2009
Storm surge in Manila Bay
Typhoon Pedring & Quiel (Sept 2011)

Floodings
in Central
Luzon

Floodings due to storm surge

generated by Typhoon Pedring.
 TS SENDONG
T. STORM Dec 2011

CDO & ILIGAN

TRENDS:
-Temperature
-Rainfall Intensity
-Tropical Cyclones
0.648
almost 3 times
increase in
maximum
temperatures
Trend in the frequency Trend in the frequency
of days with maximum with minimum
temperature above the temperature above the
1961-1990 mean 99th 1961-1990 mean 99th
percentile percentile
(Hot days). (Warm nights)
 Trend in the
Trend in the frequency with
frequency with minimum
Maximum temperature above
temperature above the 1961-1990 mean
the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile
1st percentile Cold nights
Cool Days
 Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR
Period: 1948-2010

40
Number of Tropical Cyclones
35 Five-year running mean y = -0.0223x + 20.124
Number of Tropical Cyclones

Linear (Five-year running

30 mean)

25

20

15

10

0
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
 )
250

Number of Landfalling TC's

200
Number of TropicalCyclones

Number of non-Landfalling TC's 80 67

150 77

88
100
87
46 130
126 47
50 111
30
71
10 6 9 18 48 44 36
34
17 13 9 11
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Monthly
Mean 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.4
 Comparison of 30-year mean number of Tropical Comparisonof 10-year mean number of Tropical
Cyclone in the Philippines
20.5 Cyclone in the Philippines
21.0

20.0 20.5

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Number of Tropical Cyclones

20.0
19.5
19.5

19.0
19.0
18.5

18.0
18.5

17.5

18.0 17.0
1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2010
2001-2010 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
30 years Mean 10 years Mean
No. of T.C. No. of T.C.
19.8 20.2 19.5 18.8 18.5 20.5 20.4 19.8 18.3 18.4
 Neutral Year

Tracks during ENSO and

None-ENSO

El Niño Year La Niña Year

 Decadal Number of Tropical cyclones by ENSO Category (1948 -2010)
120

100

80
No. of Tc

60

40

20

0
1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
Neutral 101 106 87 108 79 100
El Niño 25 40 35 48 57 60
La Niña 59 59 82 42 47 24
Total 185 205 204 198 183 184
 Monthly number of Tropical cyclone by Category (1948-2010)
120

100

80
No. of Tc

60

40

20

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nuetral 9 13 16 17 37 53 114 114 82 62 63 35
El Nino 4 0 1 3 7 22 50 40 50 34 32 22
La Nina 14 6 2 10 17 16 43 47 55 62 41 22
 Number of Extreme Typhoons Iin the PAR (with maximum sustain winds of 150 kph and above)
Period: 1971-2009

12
Nuetral year (10TCs) 2004
10 El Niño year (9TCs) 1987
La Niña year
Frequency of TC

0
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
Year
 Trends in the Number of TC

TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

1971-00
250

1951-80

1961-90
200

51-80
Number

150
61-90
71-00
100

50

LUZON
Luzon VISAYAS
Visayas MINDANAO
Mindanao
 Extreme Climate variability (ENSO of 2010)
Mar. 2010
Rainfall Maps Feb. 2010
Jan. 2010
Dec. 2009

Nov. 2009
Oct. 2009
Sept. 2009

Black areas: Excessive rains

Red areas: rainfall deficit
 Rainfall Anomaly in Manila
Period: 1865-2009 (departure from 1971 to 2000 normal values)
2500
Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000)
2000
5 yr moving ave
1500
Rainfall Amount (mm)

Linear (5 yr moving ave)

1000

500

-500

-1000

-1500
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915

1925

1935

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005
1920

1930

1940

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000
 Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009
 Annual Mean Temperature (°C)
Manila (1901 - 2009)
30.0

29.5
Annual Mean Temperature
29.0 5-year moving average
Mean Temperature (°C)

Linear (5-year moving average)

28.5

28.0

27.5

27.0

26.5
y = 0.02x + 26.516
26.0

25.5

25.0
1901
1906

1916
1921

1931
1936

1954
1959

1969
1974

1984
1989

1999
2004
1911

1926

1949

1964

1979

1994

2009
YEAR

An increase of 2.18 C from 1901-2009 (109 years)

 Comparison of the 30-years average of
MeanTemperature for Manila
28.5

28.0
Tempearutre°C

27.5

27.0

26.5

26.0
1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009
Manila 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3
• Over the last 60years (1951 to 2010), the average (mean) annual
temperature in the Philippines has risen by about 0.648 °C.

• There is significant increase in the number of hot days and warm nights
and decreasing trend in the number of cold days and cold nights.

• Overall, no evident increase or decrease of annual rainfall observed in

the Philippines, but;
– increasing trend in the frequency of extreme rainfall events,
– increasing trend in the intensity of extreme rainfall.

• The mean number of tropical cyclones during the last two decades (1991-
2000 & 2000-2010) have been less compared to past decades.
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
0001 > AMANG / TD / 2011 / 040312 to 040412
0002 > BEBENG / TS / 2011 / 050612 to 051100
0003 > CHEDENG / TY / 2011 / 052218 to 052806
0004 > DODONG / TS / 2011 / 060900 to 061000
0005 > EGAY / TS / 2011 / 061618 to 062006
0006 > FALCON / TS / 2011 / 062100 to 062418
0007 > GORING / TD / 2011 / 070906 to 071000
0008 > HANNA / TD / 2011 / 071506 to 071600
0009 > INENG / TY / 2011 / 071703 to 071712
0010 > JUANING / TS / 2011 / 072500 to 072800
0011 > KABAYAN / TY / 2011 / 072806 to 080418
0012 > LANDO / TD / 2011 / 073106 to 080106
0013 > MINA / TY / 2011 / 082112 to 082912
0014 > NONOY / TS / 2011 / 090800 to 090818
0015 > ONYOK / TD / 2011 / 091206 to 091300
0016 > PEDRING / TY / 2011 / 092406 to 092806
0017 > QUIEL / TY / 2011 / 092818 to 100212
0018 > RAMON / TS / 2011 / 101000 to 101400
0019 > SENDONG / TS / 2011 / 121500 to 121812
Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines (1948-2005)

Northern Luzon is
most frequently hit
by tropical
cyclones followed
by Catanduanes
and Northern
Samar and least in
the Mindanao area.
Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)