ME‐5101

Engineering Analysis & 
Statistics
Lect. # 8, 9
Introduction to Probability

Dr. Nazeer Ahmad Anjum
Mechanical Engineering Program
Engineering University Taxila

QUESTION # 2 2
Fuel Economy (km/litter)
Fuel No. Mercedes Toyota Honda Mehran
1 24.8 24.5 19.6 41.7
2 24.7 25.2 20.0 42.2
3 24.9 27.4 19.3 41.7
4 23.9 23.3 19.1 39.3
5 24.9 25.0 19.7 42.8
6 24.9 24.7 20.1 42.4
7 24.9 23.2 17.8 24.4
8 24.5 24.9 19.6 40.6
Avg 24.7 24.8 19.4 39.4
Median 24.8 24.8 19.6 41.7
S. D 0.3 1.3 0.7 6.2
Variance 0.09 1.69 .49 38.44
Qrt1 24.6 23.9 19.2 40.0
Qrt3 24.9 25.1 19.8 42.3

• Mehran have higher average fuel economy than others

• Honda has slightly lower average.
• Mercedes results in the eight fuel economy are more consistent in QRT, & S.D
• Mehran results in the eight fuel economy are least consistent due to one value
1/15/2019
 What is Probability? 3

• Probability is the measure of how likely an

event or outcome is.

• Different events have different

probabilities!

1/15/2019

Introduction to Probability 4
Definitions
• Probability is the possibility that an event
occur.
• If we repeat many times an experiment, when
obtained expected result, it is divided
between number of experiments to know the
probability.
• If a result is sure to occur, The probability will
be 1 (100%).
• If an event is sure that does not occur, The
probability will be 0.

1/15/2019
 Why Learn Probability? 5
• Nothing in life is certain. In everything we do, we
gauge the chances of successful outcomes,
from business to medicine to the weather
• A probability provides a quantitative description
of the chances or likelihoods associated with
various outcomes
• It provides a bridge between descriptive and
inferential statistics

Probability
Population Sample
Statistics
1/15/2019

Probabilistic vs Statistical Reasoning 6

• Suppose I know exactly the proportions of car
makes in Japan. Then I can find the probability
that the first car I see in the street is a Toyota.
This is probabilistic reasoning as I know the
population and predict the sample.
• Now suppose that I do not know the proportions
of car makes in Japan, but would like to
estimate them. I observe a random sample of
cars in the street and then I have an estimate of
the proportions of the population. This is
statistical reasoning

1/15/2019
 Introduction to Probability 7
Examples
• If we throw a coin in the air once, the
probability to obtain face is ½, because only
we can obtain face or cross.
• If we throw a dice once, the probability to
obtain a 4 is 4/6, because there are 6 sides in
the dice.
• If we have a box with 100 balls: 5 blue, 5
green, 10 orange, 10 yellow, 20 red, 20 white
and 30 brown, the higher probability is to
obtain a brown ball, 30/100 = 0.3 = 30%.

1/15/2019

Introduction to Probability 8
The Probability of an event A:
Number of outcomes favorable to A
P( A) 
Total number of possible outcomes

Consider a box with n white and m red balls.

There are two elementary outcomes: white ball
or red ball. Probability of “selecting a white ball”
n
 .
n  m
We can use above classical definition to
determine the probability that a given number is
divisible by a prime p.
1/15/2019
 9

Counting Rules,
Combinations, and
Permutations

1/15/2019

Example 10
The sample space of throwing a pair of dice is

1/15/2019
How do we Describe Probability?11

• The probability of an event can describe with the

following terms:
– Certain (the event is definitely going to happen)
– Likely (the event will probably happen, but not
definitely)
– Unlikely (the event will probably not happen, but it
might)
– Impossible (the event is definitely not going to
happen)

1/15/2019

Counting 12
Any activity with an unpredictable results is called an
experiment.
The results of an experiment are called outcomes and
the set of all possible outcomes is the sample space.
The number of outcomes in the sample space S is n(S).
Examples: Identify the sample space.

Experiment Sample Space n(S)

Flip a coin. S = {H, T} 2

Toss a die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} 6

SAMPLE SPACE:- The sample space for an experiment
is the set of all experimental outcomes, n(S)
Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin
Company, Inc. All rights reserved.
12
1/15/2019
Counting Rules and Assigning Probabilities 13
Any subset of the sample space is called an event.
The number of outcomes in an event E is n(E).

Examples: List the outcomes in each event.

Experiment Event n(E)
Flip a coin Get heads {H} 1

Toss a die Get an even number {2, 4, 6} 3

Toss a die Get a 3 or higher {3, 4, 5, 6} 4

Draw a card Get an 8 {8, 8, 8, 8} 4

Flip two coins Get at least one head {HH, HT, TH} 3
Copyright © by Houghton Mifflin
Company, Inc. All rights reserved.
1/15/2019

Counting Rules and Assigning Probabilities14

If E is an event from a sample space S of equally

likely outcomes, the probability of event E is: n( E )
P( E ) 
n( S )
Note that 0  P(E)  1.
If n(E) = 0, then P(E) = 0, and the event is impossible.
If n(E) = n(S), then P(E) = 1 and the event is certain.

1/15/2019
Counting Rule for Multiple-step experiments 15
Example 1: Two coins are tossed. What is the probability
that at least one head comes up?
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} E = {HH, HT, TH}
n( E ) 3
P( E )  
n( S ) 4
Example 2: A card is drawn at random from a standard
deck of 52 cards. What is the probability the
card drawn is a face card?
S = all 52 cards in the deck n(S) = 52
E = {J, J, J, J, Q, Q, Q, Q, K, K, K, K}
n(E) = 12 n( E ) 12 3
P( E )   
n( S ) 52 13

1/15/2019

Counting Rules, The mn Rule 16

• If an experiment is performed in two
stages, with m ways to accomplish the
first stage and n ways to accomplish the
second stage, then there are mn ways to
accomplish the experiment.
• This rule is easily extended to k stages,
with the number of ways equal to
n1 n2 n3 … nk
Example: Toss two coins. The total number
of simple events is: 22=4

1/15/2019
Counting Rule for Multiple-step Experiments 17
If an experiment can be described as a sequence of k
steps with n1 possible outcomes on the first step, n2
possible outcomes on the second step, and so on, then the
total number of experimental outcomes is given by (n1)
(n2)...(nk).

Viewing the experiment of tossing two coins as a sequence

of first tossing one coin

(n1 = 2) and then tossing the other coin (n2 = 2), according
to the counting rule: (2)(2) = 4 distinct experimental
outcomes are possible.
As S {(H, H),(H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}.
The number of experimental outcomes in an experiment
involving tossing six coins is = (2)(2)(2)(2)(2)(2) = 64.

1/15/2019

Counting Rule for Multiple-step Experiments 18

TREE DIAGRAM FOR THE EXPERIMENT OF
TOSSING TWO COINS

1/15/2019
 19
Experiments, Counting Rules and Assigning Probabilities

While discussing probability, we define an experiment as

a process that generates well-defined outcomes. On
any single repetition of an experiment, one and only one
of the possible experimental outcomes will occur.
Several examples of experiments and their associated
outcomes follow.
Experiment Experimental Outcomes
Toss a coin Head, tail
Select a part for inspection Defective, non-defective
Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Play a football game Win, lose, tie

1/15/2019

Examples 20
Example: Toss three coins. The total number of 
simple events is: 222=8
Example: Toss two dice. The total number of 
simple events is: 6  6 = 36
Example: Toss three dice. The total number of 
simple events is: 6  6  6 = 216

1/15/2019
Counting Rule for Multiple-step 21
Experiments
Example:- analysis of a capacity expansion project for Kot Addu
Power Company (KAPCO).
Objective: Designing a project to increase the power generating
capacity.
Procedure: The project is divided into two sequential stages or
steps: stage 1 (design) and stage 2 (construction).
Problems:- Even though each stage will be scheduled and controlled
as closely as possible, management cannot predict beforehand the
exact time required to complete each stage of the project.
An analysis of similar construction projects revealed possible
completion times for the design stage of 2, 3, or 4 months and
possible completion times for the construction stage of 6, 7, or 8
months.
In addition, because of the critical need for additional electrical power,
management set a goal of 10 months for the completion of the
entire project.

1/15/2019

Counting Rule for Multiple-step 22

Experiments
Solution Through MSE:- There are three possible
completion times for the Design Stage (step 1) and
Three possible completion times for the
Construction Stage (step 2),
According to counting rule for multiple-step
experiments = (3)(3) = 9 total No. of experimental
outcomes.
We use a two-number notation; for instance, (2, 6)
indicates that the design stage is completed in 2
months and the construction stage is completed in 6
months. This experimental outcome results in a total
of 2 + 6 = 8 months to complete the entire project.

1/15/2019
Experimental outcomes (sample points)
23
for the KAPCO project
Completion Time (months) Notation for Total Project
Experimental Completion
Stage 1 Stage 2
Outcome Time (months)
Design Construction
2 6 (2,6) 8
2 7 (2,7) 9
2 8 (2,8) 10
3 6 (3,6) 9
3 7 (3,7) 10
3 8 (3,8) 11
4 6 (4,6) 10
4 7 (4,7) 11
4 8 (4,8) 12
1/15/2019

Tree Diagram for the KAPCO Project24

Conclusion:- Completion
time of the project is 8 to
12 months, with five of the
nine experimental
outcomes

Even though identifying

the experimental
outcomes may be helpful,
we need to consider how
probability values can be
assigned to the
experimental outcomes
before making an
assessment of the
probability that the project
will be completed within
the desired 10 months

1/15/2019
 Combinations 25
• The number of distinct combinations of n
distinct objects that can be formed, taking 
them r at a time is n!
n
Cr 
r! (n  r )!

Example: Three members of a 5‐person committee must 
be chosen to form a subcommittee. How many different 
subcommittees could be formed?
5! 5(4)(3)(2)1 5(4)
The order of C35     10
the choice is 3!(5  3)! 3(2)(1)(2)1 (2)1
not important!
1/15/2019

Example of Combinations 26
Consider that a lottery system uses the random
selection of six integers from a group of 53 to
determine the weekly winner.
n!
C rn 
r! (n  r )!

53! 53! (53)(52)(51)(50)(49)(48)

C 653     22,957,480
6! (53  6)! 6!47! (6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)

1/15/2019
m
m m
Example of Combinations 27
m mm

• A box contains six M&Ms®, four red and two

green. A child selects two M&Ms at random.
What is the probability that exactly one is red?
2!
6! 6(5) C12  2
The order of C 
6
2   15 1!1!
2!4! 2(1)
the choice is ways to choose
not important! ways to choose 2 M & Ms.
1 green M & M.
4!
C14  4 4  2 =8 ways to
1!3! choose 1 red and 1 P(exactly one
ways to choose green M&M. red) = 8/15
1 red M & M.
1/15/2019

Example of Combinations 28

A deck of cards consists of 52 cards, 13 "kinds" 
each of four suits (spades, hearts, diamonds, and 
clubs). The 13 kinds are Ace (A), 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 
9, 10, Jack (J), Queen (Q), King (K). In many poker 
games, each player is dealt five cards from a well 
shuffled deck.  
52! 52(51)(50)(49)48
There are C 552    2,598,960
5!(52  5)! 5(4)(3)(2)1
possible hands

1/15/2019
 Example of Combinations 29

Four of a kind: 4 of the 52 cards are the same 
“kind”. What is the probability of  getting four 
of a kind in a five card hand?
There are 13 possible choices for the kind of
which to have four, and 52‐4=48 choices for
the fifth card. Once the kind has been
specified, the four are completely
determined: you need all four cards of that
kind. Thus there are 13×48=624 ways to get
four of a kind.
The probability=624/2598960=.000240096
and

1/15/2019

Example of Combinations 30

One pair: two of the cards are of one kind,

the other three are of three different kinds.
What is the probability of getting one pair in
a five card hand?

There are 13 possible choices for the kind

of which to have a pair; given the choice,
there are C 24  6 possible choices of two
of the four cards of that kind
1/15/2019
 Example of Combinations 31

There are 12 kinds remaining from which to 
select the other three cards in the hand. We 
must insist that the kinds be different from 
each other and from the kind of which we 
have a pair, or we could end up with a second 
pair, three or four of a kind, or a full house.

1/15/2019

Example of Combinations 32

There are C 312  220 ways to pick the kinds of

the remaining three cards. There are 4 choices
for the suit of each of those three cards, a total
of 4 3  64 choices for the suits of all three.
Therefore the number of " one pair" hands is
13  6  220  64  1,098,240.
The probability  1098240/2598960 
 .422569
1/15/2019
 Example of Combinations 33
1. A printed circuit board has eight different locations in
which a component can be placed. If five identical
components are to be placed on the board, how many
different designs are possible?

2. A bin of 50 manufactured parts contains three defective

parts and 47 non-defective parts. A sample of six parts is
selected from the 50 parts. Selected parts are not
replaced. That is, each part can only be selected once
and the sample is a subset of the 50 parts. How many
different samples are there of size six that contain
exactly two defective parts?
A subset containing exactly two defective parts can be
formed by first choosing the two defective parts from the
three defective parts
1/15/2019

Example of Combinations 34
Then, the second step is to select the remaining four parts
from the 47 acceptable parts in the bin. The second step
can be completed in

Therefore, from the multiplication rule, the number of

subsets of size six that contain exactly two defective items
is

As an additional computation, the total number of different

subsets of size six is found to be

The probability is

1/15/2019
 Permutations 35
• The number of ways you can arrange
n distinct objects, taking them r at a time is
n!
Prn 
(n  r )!
where n! n(n  1)(n  2)...(2)(1) and 0! 1.

Example: How many 3‐digit lock combinations 
can we make from the numbers 1, 2, 3, and 4?

The order of the choice is 4!

important!
P34   4(3)(2)  24
1!
1/15/2019

Examples 36
A lock consists of five parts and can be assembled in
any order. A quality control engineer wants to test each
order for efficiency of assembly. How many orders are
there?
The order of the choice is
important!
5!
P55   5(4)(3)(2)(1)  120
0!

1/15/2019
 Examples 37

Example: A quality control process in which

an inspector selects two of five parts to
inspect for defects. How many permutations
may be selected?
The order of the choice is
important!

5! 5! 5(4)(3)(2)(1) 120
P25      20
(5  2)! 3! (3)(2)(1) 6

1/15/2019

38
Differentiate blw Combination & Permutation
Permutation Combination
Refers to the different ways Refers to several ways of
of arranging a set of objects choosing items from a large
in a sequential order. set of objects, such that their
order does not matters
Relevant Irrelevant
Arrangement Selection
Ordered elements Unordered sets
How many different How many different groups
arrangement can be can be chosen from a larger
created from a given set of group of objects?
objects?
Multiple permutation from Single combination from a
a single combination. single permutation.
1/15/2019
 39
Differentiate blw Combination & Permutation
Permutation
We define permutation as
different ways of arranging
some or all the members of a
set in a specific order. It
implies all the possible
arrangement or rearrangement
of the given set, into
distinguishable order.
For example, All possible
permutation created with
letters x, y, z:s
•By taking all three at a time
are xyz, xzy, yxz, yzx, zxy, zyx.
•By taking two at a time are xy,
xz, yx, yz, zx, zy.
Combination
The combination is defined as
the different ways, of selecting a
group, by taking some or all the
members of a set, without the
following order.
For example, All possible
combinations chosen with letter
m, n, o:
•When three out of three letters
are to be selected, then the only
combination is mno
•When two out of three letters
are to be selected, then the
possible combinations are mn,
no, om.
1/15/2019

40
Differentiate b/w Combination & Permutation
Key Differences Between Permutation and
Combination
1. The term permutation refers to several ways of arranging a set of objects in a
sequential order. Combination implies several ways of choosing items from a large
pool of objects, such that their order is irrelevant.
2. The primary distinguishing point between these two mathematical concepts is
order, placement, and position, i.e. in permutation characteristics mentioned
above does matter, which does not matter in the case of the combination.
3. Permutation denotes several ways to arrange things, people, digits, alphabets,
colours, etc. On the other hand, combination indicates different ways of selecting
menu items, food, clothes, subjects, etc.
4. The permutation is nothing but an ordered combination while Combination
implies unordered sets or pairing of values within specific criteria.
5. Many permutations can be derived from a single combination. Conversely, only a
single combination can be obtained from a single permutation.
6. Permutation answers How many different arrangements can be created from a
given set of objects? As opposed to the combination which explains How many
different groups can be picked from a larger group of objects?

1/15/2019
 41
Differentiate b/w Combination & Permutation
Example
Suppose, there is a situation where you have to find out
the total number of possible samples of two out of three
objects A, B, C. In this question, first of all, you need to
understand, whether the question is related to permutation
or combination and the only way to find this out is to check
whether the order is important or not.
If the order is significant, then the question is related to
permutation, and possible samples will be, AB, BA, BC,
CB, AC, CA. Where, AB is different from BA, BC is different
from CB and AC is different CA.
If the order is irrelevant, then the question is related to the
combination, and the possible samples will be AB, BC and
CA.

1/15/2019

42
Differentiate b/w Combination & Permutation

Conclusion
With the above discussion, it is clear that permutation and
combination are different terms, which are used in
mathematics, statistics, research and our day to day life. A
point to remember, regarding these two concepts is that,
for a given set of objects, permutation will always be
higher than its combination

1/15/2019
 Assigning Probabilities 43
There are three approaches used for assigning
probability. Most frequently used are the classical,
relative frequency, and subjective methods.
Regardless of the method used, two basic
requirements for assigning probabilities must be met.
1. The probability assigned to each experimental
outcome must be between 0 and 1, inclusively. If we
let Ei denote the ith experimental outcome and P(Ei)
its probability, then this requirement can be written as

𝒊 ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ (1)
2. The sum of the probabilities for all the experimental
outcomes must equal 1.0. For n experimental
outcomes, this requirement can be written as

𝟏 𝟐 𝒏 ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ (2)
1/15/2019

Example of Combinations 44
1. A printed circuit board has eight different locations in
which a component can be placed. If five identical
components are to be placed on the board, how many
different designs are possible?

2. A bin of 50 manufactured parts contains three defective

parts and 47 non-defective parts. A sample of six parts is
selected from the 50 parts. Selected parts are not
replaced. That is, each part can only be selected once
and the sample is a subset of the 50 parts. How many
different samples are there of size six that contain
exactly two defective parts?
A subset containing exactly two defective parts can be
formed by first choosing the two defective parts from the
three defective parts
1/15/2019
 Example of Combinations 45
Then, the second step is to select the remaining four parts
from the 47 acceptable parts in the bin. The second step
can be completed in

Therefore, from the multiplication rule, the number of

subsets of size six that contain exactly two defective items
is

As an additional computation, the total number of different

subsets of size six is found to be

The probability is

1/15/2019

Examples Permutations 46
Consider a machining operation in which a piece of
sheet metal needs two identical diameter holes drilled
and two identical size notches cut. We denote a drilling
operation as d and a notching operation as n.
Determining possible sequences of the four operations.
The six sequences are easily summarized:
ddnn, dndn, dnnd, nddn, ndnd, nndd.

A printed circuit board has eight different locations in

which a component can be placed. If four different
components are to be placed on the board, how many
different designs are possible?

1/15/2019
 Classical Method of Assigning 47
Probabilities
It is an appropriate method for assigning probabilities
when all the experimental outcomes are equally likely. If
n experimental outcomes are possible, a probability of
1/n is assigned to each experimental outcome. When
using this approach, the two basic requirements for
assigning probabilities are automatically satisfied.
Example:- Tossing a fair coin; the two experimental
outcomes—head and tail—are equally likely.
The probability of observing a head is 1/2, or .50.
Similarly, the probability of observing a tail is also 1/2, or
.50.

1/15/2019

Classical Method of Assigning 48

Probabilities
Example:- Rolling a die - six possible outcomes are
equally likely, and hence each outcome is assigned a
probability of 1/6.
If P(1) denotes the probability that one dot appears on
the upward face of the die, then P(1) = 1/6.
Similarly, P(2) = 1/6,
P(3) = 1/6,
P(4) = 1/6,
P(5) = 1/6, and
P(6) = 1/6.
Note that these probabilities satisfy the two basic
requirements of equations (1) and (2) because each of
the probabilities is greater than or equal to zero and they
sum to 1.0.
1/15/2019
Relative Frequency Method of Assigning
49
Probabilities

This method is appropriate when data are

available to estimate the proportion of the time
the experimental outcome will occur if the
experiment is repeated a large number of times.

1/15/2019

Relative Frequency Method of Assigning

50
Probabilities
Example, consider a study of waiting times in the X-ray
department for a local hospital. A clerk recorded the
number of patients waiting for service at 9:00 a.m. on 20
successive days and obtained the following results.
Number Number of Days Relative
waiting Outcome Occurred Probability
0 2 2/20= 0.1
1 5 5/20=0.25
2 6 6/20=0.30
3 4 4/20=0.20
4 3 3/20=0.15
Total 20 1.00
1/15/2019
 Subjective Method of Assigning 51
Probabilities
It is most appropriate when experimental outcomes are
not equally likely and when little relevant data are
available. In this method, we may use any information
available, such as our experience or perception.
By considering all available information, a probability
value that expresses our degree of belief (on a scale
from 0 to 1).
As this technique expresses a person’s degree of belief,
it is personal. So by this method, different people can be
expected to assign different probabilities to the same
experimental outcome.
The subjective method requires extra care to ensure that
the two basic requirements of equations (1) and (2) are
satisfied.
1/15/2019

Subjective Method of Assigning 52

Probabilities
Example:- Consider Ali and Hassan make an offer to
purchase a house. Two outcomes are possible:
E1 = Their offer is accepted
E2 = Their offer is rejected
Ali believes that the probability their offer will be accepted is
0.8; thus, he would set
P(E1) = 0.8 and P(E 2) = 0.2.
Hassan believes that the probability that their offer will be
accepted is 0.6; hence, he set P(E1) = 0.6 and P(E2) = 0.4.
Note that Hassan probability estimate for E1 reflects a
greater pessimism (doubt) that their offer will be accepted.
Although both having different probabilities but these are
satisfying the conditions

1/15/2019
 Subjective Method of Assigning 53
Probabilities
In such cases, the best probability estimates often
are obtained by combining the estimates from the
classical or relative frequency approach with
subjective probability estimates.

1/15/2019

Relative Frequency Probabilities for 54

KAPCO (40 Projects)
Completion Time Sample Total Project No. of Past Probability of
(months) Point Completion Projects Sample Point
Stage 1 Stage 2 Time Completion
Design Construction (months) Time
2 6 (2,6) 8 6 P(2, 6)=6/40=0.15
2 7 (2,7) 9 6 P(2, 7)= 6/40=0.15
2 8 (2,8) 10 2 P(2, 8)=2/40=0.05
3 6 (3,6) 9 4 P(3, 6)=4/40=0.10
3 7 (3,7) 10 8 P(3, 7)=8/40=0.20
3 8 (3,8) 11 2 P(3, 8)=2/40=0.05
4 6 (4,6) 10 2 P(4, 6) =2/40=0.05
4 7 (4,7) 11 4 P(4, 7)=4/40=0.10
4 8 (4,8) 12 6 P(4, 8)=6/40=0.15
Total = 40 Total = 1.00
Table A 1/15/2019
 Self Assessment 55

Problem # 1:Consider the experiment of tossing a

coin three times.
a. Develop a tree diagram for the experiment.
b. List the experimental outcomes.
c. What is the probability for each experimental
outcome?

1/15/2019

Self Assessment 56
Driver using seat
Problem # 2: The National Highway Traffic belt?
Safety Administration (NHTSA) conducted a Region Yes No
survey to learn about how drivers throughout PWR 148 52
the Pakistan are using seat belts in August 25,
ISD 296 4
2016. Sample data consistent with the NHTSA
LHR 162 54
survey are as shown in table.
FD 252 48
a. For the Pakistan, what is the probability that
Total 858 228
a driver is using a seat belt?
b. The seat belt usage probability for a Pakistani driver a year earlier was 0.75.
NHTSA chief Mr. Bhatti had hoped for a 0.78 probability in 2016. Would he have
been pleased with the 2017 survey results?
c. What is the probability of seat belt usage by region of the country? What region
has the highest seat belt usage?
d. What proportion of the drivers in the sample came from each region of the
country? What region had the most drivers selected? What region had the second
most drivers selected?
e. Assuming the total number of drivers in each region is the same, do you see any
reason why the probability estimate in part (a) might be too high? Explain.
1/15/2019
 Events and Their Probabilities 57
EVENT: An event is a collection of sample points.
For example, let us consider the KAPCO project and assume
that the project manager is interested in the event that the
entire project can be completed in 10 months or less.
Referring to Table A, we see that six sample points; (2, 6), (2,
7), (2, 8), (3, 6), (3, 7), and (4, 6); provide a project
completion time of 10 months or less.
Let C denote the event that the project is completed in 10
months or less; we write
C = {(2, 6), (2, 7), (2, 8), (3, 6), (3, 7), (4, 6)
Event C is said to occur if any one of these six sample
points appears as the experimental outcome.
L =The event that the project is completed in less than 10
months
M = The event that the project is completed in more than 10
months 1/15/2019

Events and Their Probabilities 58

L = {(2, 6), (2, 7), (3, 6)}
M = {(3, 8), (4, 7), (4, 8)}
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
The probability of any event is equal to the sum of the
probabilities of the sample points in the event.
Using this definition, we calculate the probability of a
particular event by adding the probabilities of the sample
points (experimental outcomes) that make up the event. We
can now compute the probability that the project will take 10
months or less to complete. Because this event is given by
C = {(2, 6), (2, 7), (2, 8), (3, 6), (3, 7), (4, 6)}, the probability
of event C, denoted P(C), is given by
P(C ) = P(2, 6) + P(2, 7) + P(2, 8) + P(3, 6) + P(3, 7) + P(4, 6)

P(C ) = 0.15+0.15+0.05+0.10+0.20+0.05 = 0.70

1/15/2019
 Events and Their Probabilities 59
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Similarly, because the event that the project is
completed in less than 10 months is given by
L = {(2, 6), (2, 7), (3, 6)}
Probability of this event is given by
P(L ) = P(2, 6) + P(2, 7) + P(3, 6)
P(L ) = 0.15 + 0.15 + 0.10 = 0.40
Now for the event that the project is completed in
more than 10 months, we have
P(M) = {(3, 8), (4, 7), (4, 8)}
P(M) = 0.05 + 0.10 + 0.15 = 0.30
1/15/2019

Example Problems 60
One bag contains 4 white balls and 2 black balls; another
contains 3 white and 5 black. If one ball is drawn from each
bag, find the probability that (a) both are white; (b) both are
black; (c) one is white and one is black.
Answer: (a) 4/6*3/8 = 1/4;
(b) 2/6*5/8=5/24;
(c) (4/6)(5/8)+(2/6)(3/8)= 13/24

Reminder: Infinite Geometric Progression

1/15/2019
 Example Problems 61
A machine produces a total of 12,000 bolts a day, which are on
average 3% defective. Find the probability that out of 600 bolts
chosen at random, 12 will be defective.
Solution, Of 12000 bolts, 360 are defective and 11640 are
not.
P= C11640,588 C360,12 /C12000,600 = 0.0347277
Some comments: This problem caused some controversy.
Some of you suggested that the probability of finding a
defective bolt is 0.03. Then the probability could be estimated
through the Binomial distribution
p(12 out of 600) = C600,12 0.03120.97588~0.036 (Eq. 2). This is
very close indeed to the result of Eq. 1. May be this tiny
difference is just a result of an error?
To demonstrate that this is not true, we consider a simpler
example. Suppose that there are 10 balls, 6 are black and 4
are white. What is the probability that of 4 balls chosen at
random, 2 are white. 1/15/2019

Example Problems 62
The conventional solution is p= C4,2C6,2/C6,4=0.429.
We can also use a Binomial formula assuming that the
probabilities are 3/5 and 2/5:
p = C4,2(2/5)2(3/5)2= 0.346.
This time the difference is significant. In addition, we can now
understand the source of the problem, The Binomial distribution
can be used only when the probabilities of two outcomes do
not depend on the number of previous trials. This condition is
not fulfilled in our example. The probability of choosing a white
ball depends on the outcomes of previous selections.
The same is true for the “bolts” problem, although the
differences are much less significant.

1/15/2019
 Random Variables 63
• A quantitative variable x is a random variable if
the value that it assumes, corresponding to the
outcome of an experiment is a chance or
random event.
• Random variables can be discrete or continuous.

• Examples: 
 x = SAT score for a randomly selected student
 x = number of people in a room at a randomly 
selected time of day
 x = number on the upper face of a randomly 
tossed die
1/15/2019

Introduction 64

• Discrete random variables take on only a

finite or countable number of values.
• There are several useful discrete
probability distributions. We will learn
Binomial and Poisson distributions.

Examples: Dead/alive, treatment/placebo,

dice, counts, etc.

1/15/2019
 Continuous Random Variables 65
A random variable is continuous if it can
assume the infinitely many values
corresponding to points on a line interval.
Examples:
Heights, weights
length of life of a particular product
experimental laboratory error
Blood pressure
the speed of a car
the real numbers from 1 to 6.
1/15/2019

Probability Distributions for Discrete

66
Random Variables
The probability distribution for a discrete
random variable x resembles the relative
frequency distributions we constructed in
previous lectures. It is a graph, table or
formula that gives the possible values of x
and the probability p(x) associated with each
value.

We must have
0  p ( x)  1 and  p ( x)  1
1/15/2019
 Example 67
Toss a fair coin three times and define x
= number of heads.
x
HHH x p(x)
1/8 3 P(x = 0) = 1/8 0 1/8
HHT
1/8 2 P(x = 1) = 3/8 1 3/8
HTH P(x = 2) = 3/8
1/8 2 2 3/8
THH
P(x = 3) = 1/8
3 1/8
1/8 2
HTT
1/8 1 Probability
THT Histogram for x
1/8 1
TTH 1/8 1
TTT 1/8 0
1/15/2019

Example 68
Toss two dice and define 
x = sum of two dice
x p(x)

2 1/36
3 2/36
4 3/36
5 4/36
6 5/36
7 6/36
8 5/36
9 4/36
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36
1/15/2019
 Probability Distributions 69

Probability distributions can be used to describe 
the population, just as we described samples in 
our previous lectures.
– Shape: Symmetric, skewed, mound‐shaped…
– Outliers: unusual or unlikely measurements 
– Center and spread:  mean and standard 
deviation. A population mean is called  and a 
population standard deviation is called 

1/15/2019

The Mean 70
and Standard Deviation
Let x be a discrete random variable with
probability distribution p(x). Then the
mean, variance and standard deviation of x
are given as

Mean :    xp( x)
Variance :  2  ( x   ) 2 p ( x)
Standard deviation :    2

1/15/2019
 Example 71
Toss a fair coin 3 times and record x
the number of heads.

x p(x) xp(x) (x-2p(x) 12

0 1/8 0 (-1.5)2(1/8)    xp ( x)   1 .5
8
1 3/8 3/8 (-0.5)2(3/8)
2 3/8 6/8 (0.5)2(3/8)
3 1/8 3/8 (1.5)2(1/8)
 2  ( x   ) 2 p( x)

 2  .28125  .09375  .09375  .28125  .75

  .75  .688
1/15/2019

Example 72
The probability distribution for x the 
number of heads in tossing 3 fair 
coins.

Symmetric;
• Shape? mound-shaped
• Outliers? None
• Center?  = 1.5
• Spread?  = .688

1/15/2019
 Example Problems 73
1. A and B play a game in which they alternately toss a pair of dice.
The one who is first to get a total of 7 wins the game. Find the
probability that (a) one who tosses first will win the game; (b) one
who tosses second will win the game. Hint: Reminder: Infinite
Geometric Progression
2. The probabilities that a husband and wife will be alive 30 years
from now are given by 0.7 and 0.8 respectively. Find the
probability that in 20 years (a) both (b) neither (c) at least one, will
be alive.
3. Four different mathematics books, six different physics books, and
two different chemistry books are to be arranged on a shelf. How
many different arrangements are possible if (a) the books in each
particular subject must all stand together. (b) only the mathematics
books must stand together

1/15/2019

Example Problems 74
4. a) Find the probability of getting the sum 7 on at least one of three
tosses of a pair of fair dice. (b) How many tosses (n) is needed in
order that this probability (getting 7 in at least 1of n tosses) is
greater than 0.95.
5. The odds in favor of A winning a game of chess against B are 3:2.
If three games are to be played, what are the odds (a) in favor of A
winning at least 2 games; (b) against A of losing the first two
games to B.
6. Out of 800 families with 4 children each, how many would be
expected to (a) 2 boys and 2 girls, (b) at least 1 boy (c) no girls (d)
at most 2 girls.
7. A pair of dice is tossed repeatedly. (a) Find the probability that the
sum of 11 occurs for the first time on the 6-th toss.
8. Find the probability of scoring a total of 7 points (a) once, (b) at
least once, (c) twice, in two tosses of a pair of dice.
9. A box contains 9 tickets numbered from 1 to 9, inclusive. If 3
tickets are drawn from the box 1 at a time, find the probability that
they are alternatively either odd-even-odd or even-odd even.
1/15/2019
 Example Problems 75
10. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find the
probability that (a) all cards are of the same suit (b) at least two
aces are drawn.
11. 15 students are evenly distributed among three groups. If three of
them are siblings, (a) what is the probability that all three are in the
same group? (b) What is the probability that each group gets one.
12. A marble is drawn at random from a box containing 10 red, 30
white, 20 blue and 15 orange marbles. Find a probability that it is
(a) orange or red (b) nor red or blue.
13. Two marbles are drawn at random with replacement from a box
containing 10 red, 30 white, 20 blue and 15 orange marbles.
Find a probability that (a) the first is blue and the second is orange
(b) they are either red or white or both (red and white). Hint: "both"
consists of 2 outcomes, depending on the order.
14. A batch of 500 machined parts contains 10 that do not conform to
customer requirements. The random variable is the number of
parts in a sample of 5 parts that do not conform to customer
requirements. Determine the range (possible values) of the
random variable.

1/15/2019

Example Problems 76
15. A batch of 500 machined parts contains 10 that do not conform to
customer requirements. Parts are selected successively, without
replacement, until a nonconforming part is obtained. The random
variable is the number of parts selected. Determine the range
(possible values) of the random variable.
16. Wood paneling can be ordered in thicknesses of 1/8, 1/4, or 3/8
inch. The random variable is the total thickness of paneling in two
orders. Determine the range (possible values) of the random
variable.
17. Suppose that a day’s production of 850 manufactured parts
contains 50 parts that do not conform to customer requirements.
Two parts are selected at random, without replacement, from the
batch. Let the random variable X equal the number of
nonconforming parts in the sample. What is the cumulative
distribution function of X?

1/15/2019