Do The 2010 Haiti and Chile Earthquakes and Tsunamis Indicate Increasing Trends?

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Do the 2010 Haiti and Chile earthquakes and tsunamis indicate increasing
trends?
Paula Dunbara; Kelly Strokera; Heather McCullougha
a
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data Center, World Data
Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology, Boulder, CO, USA
Online publication date: 23 June 2010
To cite this Article Dunbar, Paula , Stroker, Kelly and McCullough, Heather(2010) 'Do the 2010 Haiti and Chile
earthquakes and tsunamis indicate increasing trends?', Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 1: 2, 95 — 114
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Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2010, 95–114
Do the 2010 Haiti and Chile earthquakes and tsunamis indicate

increasing trends?
PAULA DUNBAR*, KELLY STROKER and HEATHER MCCULLOUGH

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data Center,
World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology, NOAA E/GC3, 325 Broadway,
Boulder, CO 80305-3328, USA
(Received 4 April 2010; in final form 14 April 2010)
Recent analysis of historical data shows that four of the top ten most deadly
earthquakes and tsunamis since 1701 occurred in the last decade, including the
2004 Indian Ocean (Sumatra) and 2010 Haiti events. The magnitude 8.8 2010
Chile earthquake was the fifth largest earthquake ever recorded. These events
generate questions about the frequency and severity of geologic natural hazards
Downloaded At: 15:31 22 October 2010
worldwide. The National Geophysical Data Center and co-located World Data
Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology maintain a global historical event
database of tsunamis, significant earthquakes, and significant volcanic eruptions
(http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazards/). Analysis of the database revealed that
while the total number of magnitude 7.5 earthquakes per decade since 1901 has
remained consistent, the last decade has experienced some of the most devastating
geologic events in history. Until 2010, the most deadly event in the Caribbean was
the 1902 eruption of Pelee that caused 28 000 deaths. While devastating, this event
is dwarfed by the 230 000 deaths that resulted from the 2010 Haiti earthquake.
The 2010 Chile earthquake is among the top ten most deadly earthquakes and
tsunamis in the entire history of Chile. While the database does not provide
answers as to why these recent events are so deadly, the analysis reinforces the
need for increasing our understanding of earthquakes and tsunamis in all regions
of the world. As the global population continues to increase, placing more people
at risk, it is important to dedicate resources to mitigate against the effects of such
natural hazards.
1. Introduction
The 2004 Indian Ocean (Sumatra) earthquake and tsunami that killed approximately
228 000 people across 14 countries (Cosgrave 2007) resulted in heightened awareness
of geologic hazards by scientists, emergency managers, the media and the general
public. Since this event, new tsunami warning systems have been established (IOC
2009), observing systems have been expanded and upgraded (Dunbar et al. 2008) and
there is interest in knowing more about geologic hazards in all areas of the world.
Each time a new event occurs people begin to wonder if it is unusual for that region,
if similar past events have occurred in the area and how often they have occurred.
They also want to know if earthquakes and tsunamis are increasing. To answer these
*Corresponding author. Email: paula.dunbar@noaa.gov

ISSN 1947-5705 Print/ISSN 1947-5713 Online ª 2010 Taylor & Francis
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2010.487322
96 P. Dunbar et al.
types of question it is important to understand the past occurrence of earthquakes,
tsunamis and volcanic eruptions.
Earthquakes and tsunamis in 2010 have continued to generate interest and
questions. For example, the seventh most fatal earthquake in history occurred in
Haiti, January 2010, which killed an estimated 230 000 people and injured 300 000.
This was followed by the magnitude 8.8 Chile earthquake in February 2010 that was
the fifth largest earthquake ever recorded. Both earthquakes generated deadly
tsunamis. The tsunami associated with the Haiti earthquake resulted in 3-m waves
and killed at least 10 people. Waves from the tsunami generated from the Chile
earthquake killed over 500 people. Although tsunamis associated with both of these
earthquakes were observed more than 100 km from the source, fatalities occurred
only in the local region.
The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) maintains several databases that
provide information on the past occurrence of natural hazards. These data have been
used to illustrate the importance of the availability of data and information on past
events for hazard and risk assessment and tsunami warning guidance. The present
letter discusses the data and information collected to date for the recent 2010 events,
the past history of the respective regions, and an analysis of these recent events in the
global record.
2. Details about NGDC and the global historical tsunamis, significant earthquakes,
and significant volcanic eruptions databases
The NGDC is one of three national data centres operated by the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NGDC’s mission is to provide long-term
scientific data stewardship for the nation’s geophysical data, ensuring quality,
integrity and accessibility. NGDC also hosts the World Data Center (WDC) for
Geophysics and Marine Geology. The WDC system works to guarantee free and
open access to solar, geophysical and related environmental data, serving the
scientific and public communities by assembling, scrutinizing, organizing, preserving
and disseminating data and information. The WDC for Geophysics and Marine
Geology provides access to natural hazards data and products, data describing the
sea floor and sub-sea floor, and global gravity and magnetic data.
The NGDC/WDC global historical tsunamis, significant earthquakes, and
significant volcanic eruptions databases include events that range in date from
4350 BC to the present (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazards/). These data are
compilations of instrumental and/or eyewitness accounts. The databases include all
tsunami events, regardless of magnitude or intensity; and all earthquakes and
volcanic eruptions that either caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a
tsunami. Earthquakes assigned either a magnitude 7.5 or a Modified Mercalli
Intensity X are also included. Each event is associated with a list of one or more
source documents. The historical event data are stored in a relational database
management system that facilitates the integration of and access to these related data
tables. For example, users can search for destructive earthquakes that generated a
damaging tsunami.
The basic data in the historical event databases include: date, time, location of the
event, magnitude of the phenomenon (tsunami or earthquake magnitude and/or
intensity, volcanic explosivity index), and socio-economic information such as the
total number of fatalities, injuries, houses damaged or destroyed, and dollar damage.
Increasing earthquake and tsunami trends 97
The tsunami database includes additional information on runups (locations where
tsunami waves were observed by eyewitnesses, field reconnaissance surveys, tide
gauges or deep ocean sensors). The volcanic eruptions database includes information
on the volcano elevation and type. There are currently over 2000 tsunami source
events, 13 000 tsunami runup locations, 5500 earthquakes and 500 volcanic
eruptions in the database.
Immediately following an event that fits the historical database criteria, NGDC/
WDC begins to collect data and information and make it available on the web.
For example, data are collected from the US NOAA National Weather Service
Tsunami Warning Centers, the US Geological Survey National Earthquake
Information Center, the US NOAA National Data Buoy Center, and numerous
newspaper reports. NGDC/WDC is also beginning to access many of the social
networking sites that provide images of earthquake and tsunami damage as well as
videos of tsunami waves. Users can access these data and assess the history of
similar types of events.
3. Haiti earthquake and tsunami of 12 January 2010

On 12 January 2010, at 21:53:10 UT, a magnitude 7.0 Mw earthquake occurred at
18.4578 N, 72.5338 W, near Port-au-Prince, Haiti (USGS 2010a). USAID (2010)

reported that the earthquake killed 230 000, displaced 700 000 in the Port-au-Prince
Metropolitan area, and affected an estimated 3 million people. Figures 1 and 2
provide examples of the type of damage that occurred. The earthquake was felt
throughout Haiti and the Dominican Republic, in Turks and Caicos Islands,
southeastern Cuba, eastern Jamaica, in parts of Puerto Rico and the Bahamas and as
far as Tampa, Florida and Caracas, Venezuela (USGS 2010a).
Figure 1. Damage to houses in Port-au-Prince caused by the magnitude 7.0 Haiti earthquake
on 12 January 2010. (Photo credit: Ronald Jackson, Director General, Office of Disaster
Preparedness and Emergency Management, Jamaica.)
98 P. Dunbar et al.
Figure 2. Damage to buildings in Port-au-Prince caused by the magnitude 7.0 Haiti

earthquake on 12 January 2010. (Photo credit: Ronald Jackson, Director General, Office of
Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management, Jamaica.)
According to the USGS (2010a), the Haiti earthquake occurred in the boundary
region separating the Caribbean and North America plates. This plate boundary is
dominated by a left-lateral strike slip motion and compression, and accommodates
about 20 mm year71 slip, with the Caribbean plate moving eastward with respect to
the North America plate. The USGS also reported that uplift was observed along the
coast from Leogane to L’Acul and subsidence was observed along the coast from
Grand Trou to Port Royal. Uplift is evident in this photograph of uplifted coral
discovered near Leogane, Haiti (figure 3).
The earthquake also generated a tsunami. Computer models predicted 20 cm
waves for the southern shores of Haiti, but a field survey by Hermann Fritz (coastal
engineer at the Georgia Institute of Technology) revealed that the waves may have
reached as high as 3 m and that several metre-high waves struck along a 100-km
stretch of shoreline, extending into the Dominican Republic (Lovett 2010). Fritz also
discovered that along the shores of the Bay of Port-au-Prince on the western coast of
Haiti, waves had rushed 70 m inland, killing a grandfather and two young
grandchildren, who had stopped to watch (Lovett 2010). At least seven people were
killed by the tsunami in Petit Paradis (Phillips 2010). Figure 4 shows the results of
uplift and damage from tsunami flooding in Haiti. The tsunami was also recorded on
tide gauges in Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and on a
Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART1) station south of San
Juan.
The large tsunami waves were surprising since the earthquake occurred on a
strike-slip fault. Fritz speculates that the waves in the Bay of Port-au-Prince were
caused by underwater landslides (Lovett 2010). Satellite images and on-the-ground
photographs show that the coastline has shifted. Clearly, questions regarding the
cause of the Haiti tsunami still exist.
Figure 3. Uplift was observed along the coast from Leogane to L’Acul after the magnitude
7.0 Haiti earthquake on 12 January 2010. This photo shows uplifted and tilted coral microatoll
near Leogane, Haiti. (Photo credit: Rich Briggs, United States Geological Survey, Geologic
Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, USA.)
Figure 4. Tsunami damage on the coast of Haiti. (Photo credit: Hermann Fritz, Georgia
Institute of Technology, Savannah, GA, USA.)
4. Review of historical geologic hazards in the Caribbean and Haiti

A review of the NGDC/WDC historical databases shows 118 significant earthquakes
(figure 5), 13 significant volcanic eruptions, and 90 tsunami events in the Caribbean
region. Of these events, 27 earthquakes, 11 tsunamis, and 5 eruptions caused
fatalities. Prior to the Haiti earthquake, the most devastating event was the 1902
eruption of Pelee that killed 28 000 people (Simkin and Siebert 1994). An earthquake
off the northern coast of Haiti in 1842 resulted in 5000 deaths and generated a
tsunami that caused an additional 500 deaths (O’Loughlin and Lander 2003). In
1843, an earthquake off the coast of Guadeloupe caused 5000 deaths and generated a
minor tsunami. In 1831, 3000 people were killed in a violent earthquake in Barbados,
which occurred simultaneously with a hurricane and volcanic eruption. The most
devastating Caribbean tsunami was generated by an earthquake in 1692 off the
southern coast of Jamaica where approximately 2000 people drowned and 1000
100 P. Dunbar et al.
Figure 5. Significant earthquakes in the Caribbean region. The 1692 Jamaica earthquake
caused 1000 deaths and generated a tsunami that caused an additional 2000 deaths. The 1831
Barbados earthquake caused 3000 deaths. The 1842 Haiti earthquake caused 5000 deaths and
generated a tsunami that caused an additional 500 deaths. The 1843 Guadeloupe earthquake
caused 5000 deaths and generated a minor tsunami. The 2010 Haiti earthquake caused 230 000
deaths and generated a tsunami that caused an additional 10 deaths. (Source: National
Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.)
perished in the earthquake. Table 1 summarizes the most fatal earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions, and tsunamis in the Caribbean region from 1701 to the present.
Further examination of the database for events specifically in Haiti reveals that
there have been 15 significant earthquakes. Earthquakes in 1751 and 1770 caused
effects in Port-au-Prince; an earthquake in 1864 caused damage in Jacmel. Eight of
the 15 significant earthquakes generated tsunamis, but only the 1842 tsunami caused
fatalities. There were a total of 5205 deaths from all earthquakes in Haiti prior to the
2010 event. The 2010 earthquake is definitely the most devastating geologic event
that has occurred in historic time in Haiti or the Caribbean.
5. Chile earthquake and tsunami of 27 February 2010

While scientists, relief agencies, and the general public were still focused on the
aftermath of the earthquake in Haiti, another major earthquake occurred in Chile.
On 27 February 2010, at 06:34:14 UT, a magnitude 8.8 Mw earthquake occurred at
35.9098 S, 72.7338 W, off the coast of Chile near Constitucion (USGS 2010b).
According to the Associated Press (2010b), the earthquake and tsunami caused 486
deaths and 79 people are still missing. The earthquake and tsunami caused nearly
$30 billion in damage over a vast area of south-central Chile (Associated Press
2010a). The earthquake was felt in much of Chile and Argentina and in parts of
Bolivia, southern Brazil, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay (USGS 2010b).
According to the USGS (2010b), the earthquake was generated at the fault that
conveys the Nazca plate eastward and downward beneath the South American plate.
Table 1. Caribbean earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis that caused more than 500 deaths. (Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World
Data Center.)
Epicentre or volcano location
Magnitude2 Earthquake Tsunami
Date Country Latitude (8) Longitude (8) Ms, Mw or eruption deaths deaths Total deaths
7 June 1692 Jamaica 17.8 N 76.7 W 1 000 2 000 3 000

12 October 17881 Saint Lucia 14.0 N 61.0 W 900 900
11 August 18311 Barbados 13.1 N 59.6 W 3 000 3 000
7 May 1842 Haiti 19.7 N 72.2 W 8.1 5 000 300 5 300
8 February 1843 Guadeloupe 16.5 N 62.2 W 8.3 5 000 0 5 000
7 May 1902 Souffiere St. Vincent3 13.3 N 61.2 W 1 680 0 1 680
8 May 1902 Pelee3 14.8 N 61.2 W 28 000 0 28 000
30 August 1902 Pelee3 14.8 N 61.2 W 1 000 0 1 000
14 January 1907 Jamaica 18.2 N 76.7 W 6.5 1 000 0 1 000
4 August 1946 Dominican Republic 19.3 N 68.9 W 8.1 few 1 790 1 790
12 January 2010 Haiti 18.5 N 72.5 W 7 230 000 7 230 000
1
Increasing earthquake and tsunami trends
Not tsunamigenic.
2
Magnitudes estimated based on intensity for 1842, 1843.
3
Volcanic eruption.
101
Figure 6. A high-rise apartment building near the water-front of Concepción, Chile,

collapsed as a result of the magnitude 8.8 earthquake on 27 February 2010. The building
broke from its foundation, toppled over to the southeast, and split in half as it hit the ground.
The foundation structure was evidently inadequate for the strength of the ground motion. The
taller building behind did not suffer any damage. (Photo credit: Walter Mooney, United States
Geological Survey.)
Figure 7. The tsunami generated by the magnitude 8.8 Chile earthquake on 27 February
2010, carried many boats onto land – in some cases hundreds of metres inland. The tsunami
wave height at this location in Concepcion Harbor (Talcahuano), Chile, was about 4–5 m (12–
15 feet). (Photo credit: Walter Mooney, United States Geological Survey.)
The two plates are converging at 7 m per century. The fault rupture, largely offshore,
exceeded 100 km in width and extended nearly 500 km parallel to the coast. The
rupture began deep beneath the coast and spread westward, northward and
southward. The fault slip warped the ocean floor, setting off a Pacific-wide tsunami.
Figure 8. The tsunami generated by the magnitude 8.8 Chile earthquake on 27 February
2010 caused damage to docks in harbours in southern California. (Photo credit: Rick Wilson,
California Geological Survey.)
In addition to the death and damage from the earthquake and tsunami in Chile, the
tsunami also caused minor damage to at least eight harbours in southern and central
California (Wilson et al. 2010). Figure 6 provides an example of the type of
earthquake damage that was observed. Figure 7 illustrates tsunami damage in Chile
and figure 8 shows harbour damage in California.
NGDC/WDC collected 139 tide gauge observations, 7 eyewitness reports, 10 post-
tsunami survey measurements, and 6 DART1 station observations for the 2010
Chile tsunami (figure 9). Following the event, a calculated tsunami travel time map
was produced, which is shown in figure 10. The observed arrival times from the tide
gauge observations can be compared with the travel time map. Approximately 30
minutes after the earthquake the tsunami was first observed in Valparaiso.
According to the travel time map, the tsunami should have arrived in Peru
approximately 6 hours after the earthquake; the tsunami was observed on tide
gauges in Balta and Santa Cruz Islands slightly over 6 hours after the earthquake.
The tsunami was expected to arrive in southern California approximately 14 hours
after the earthquake; the tsunami was observed on tide gauge observations in La
Jolla and Arena Cove, California, 14 hours after the earthquake. The tsunami was
observed on a tide gauge in Tosa-Shimizu, Japan 23 hours after the earthquake,
which again agrees with the calculated travel time.
The highest wave height in the database for the 2010 Chile tsunami is 11.2 m in
Constitución, collected during a field survey by Lagos et al. (2010). Constitución
suffered perhaps the greatest loss of life in the disaster, in part because many people
had arrived for carnival celebrations and were caught in huge waves that reached the
central plaza (Associated Press 2010b). Lagos et al. (2010) measured 8.6 m waves in
Dichato and Tome. Eyewitnesses reported 5 m waves on Robinson Crusoe Island
where five people were killed by the tsunami (Earth Times 2010). The highest tide
104
P. Dunbar et al.
Figure 9. Plot of the 27 February 2010 magnitude 8.8 Chile earthquake epicentre; water heights from tide gauges, field surveys, eyewitness accounts and
DART stations that observed the tsunami wave. (Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.) Available in colour online.
Figure 10. Calculated tsunami travel time map for the 27 February 2010 Chile tsunami
(contour intervals are in hours).
gauge recording in Chile was 2.6 m at Valparaiso. Observations of 1–2 m were

recorded at tide gauges in Ecuador, and as far away as French Polynesia and New
Zealand. Wave amplitudes of almost 1 m were observed in Maui, Hawaii (0.98 m)
and Hanasaki, Japan (0.82 m). The highest amplitude on the US west coast was
observed in Santa Monica, California (0.66 m). The highest amplitude observed in
Alaska was at King Cove (0.62 m).
There are only 16 events in the entire NGDC/WDC tsunami database that
caused deaths further than 1000 km from the source. Five of these tsunamis
originated from earthquake sources in Chile. The worst of these was the May 1960
Chile tsunami that caused over 1200 deaths: 1000 in Chile, 139 in Japan, 61 in
Hawaii and 20 in the Philippines. Since this event is the most similar to the 2010
Chile event, it is interesting to compare the resulting wave heights. The highest
wave height observed in the 1960 event was 25 m at Isla Mocha compared to
11.2 m in the 2010 event. Wave heights of 10.7 m were observed in Hawaii, versus
the 1 m waves in Hawaii in the 2010 tsunami. Although the 2010 Chile tsunami
was observed as far north as Point Hope, Alaska (688 N) and as far south as
Antarctica (788 S), the wave heights were much less than those observed from the
1960 tsunami and no deaths were observed outside the local region. The 1960
earthquake was a larger magnitude (9.5 versus 8.8) than the 2010 event and the
1960 earthquake had its largest stress release in relatively shallower waters
compared to the 2010 event. Scientists at ITC, Enschede, The Netherlands, suggest
that since the 1960 earthquake occurred in much deeper water, it replaced a much
Figure 11. Tsunami source events in Chile. The 1570 earthquake generated a tsunami that
killed more than 2000 people. The earthquake and tsunami in 1868 caused a total of 25 000
deaths. The earthquake in 1877 caused 64 deaths and generated a tsunami that caused an
additional 2477 deaths. The 1960 earthquake caused 1000 deaths and generated a tsunami that
caused an additional 1223 deaths. The 2010 earthquake and tsunami caused 565 deaths.
(Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.) Available in colour online.
larger water column (Kerle and van der Meijde 2010). These statistics are
important for tsunami warning centres to consider when a large event, such as the
2010 Chile earthquake, occurs.
6. Review of historical geologic hazards in Chile

An assessment of the NGDC/WDC historic databases following the 2010 Chile
earthquake and tsunami reveals the following statistics. There have been 179 significant
earthquakes, 11 significant volcanic eruptions and 134 tsunami events (figure 11) located
in Chile. Of these events, 54 earthquakes, 15 tsunamis, and 9 eruptions caused fatalities.
The most devastating earthquake was in 1939, which caused 30 000 deaths in Chile
(Lomnitz 1970a). This earthquake was located less than 100 km southwest of the 2010
Chile event. Some sources indicate it may have generated a minor tsunami. The 1906
Valparaiso earthquake killed 4000 people and the 1647 Santiago earthquake killed 1000
people (Lomnitz 1970b). One to 36 deaths resulted from each of the fatal eruptions in
Chile (Simkin and Siebert 1994, Venzke et al. 2002). The most devastating tsunami in
Chile resulted from the 1868 earthquake and tsunami in northern Chile, which caused
25 000 deaths (Soloviev and Go 1984). In 1570, more than 2000 people perished in a
tsunami generated by an earthquake near Concepción (Soloviev and Go 1984). Table 2
provides a summary of earthquakes and tsunamis in Chile that caused more than 500
deaths. Although the 2010 earthquake is the second highest magnitude ever recorded in
Chile, it only produced 565 fatalities.
7. Review of the frequency of occurrence of magnitude 7.5 earthquakes

One question that remains following the analysis of these events is how do these
events compare with the global database? The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and
tsunami resulted in enhancing awareness of the effects of geologic hazards. For
example, an earthquake occurred in Pakistan during 2005 that killed 86 000 people
and 87 000 people were killed during 2008 in China. Two years later, the Haiti
earthquake caused 230 000 deaths. These events are causing people to raise questions
regarding the frequency of earthquakes and tsunamis.
Since the NGDC/WDC significant earthquake database includes all earthquakes
of magnitude 7.5 or greater, an analysis of the number of earthquakes over time is
carried out. For earthquakes from 1971 to the present, earthquake epicentres, depths
and magnitudes, are obtained from the US Geological Survey Preliminary
Determination of Epicenters (USGS 1971–). Many local, regional and global
catalogues were used to compile data for earthquakes prior to 1971. Effective
registration of distant earthquakes began on 17 April 1889, when an instrument at
Potsdam recorded an earthquake in Japan (Gutenberg and Richter 1965). Although
the early instruments were very imperfect and there were few observing stations,
catalogues compiled by Gutenberg and Richter (1965), Duda (1965), the annual
publications such as United States Earthquakes (1928–1986), and many others,
provide data to extend the database as of 1901. The socio-economic data such as
deaths and damage are supplemented with additional sources.
Figure 12 shows the results of counting all magnitude 7.5 and greater earthquakes
for 10-year periods starting with 1901. The number of earthquakes has remained
consistent, with an average of 57 every decade. There are more earthquakes than
expected in the first two periods; 102 earthquakes during 1901–1910 and 86 during
1911–1920. This could be due to the primitive nature and quality of the
seismographs, resulting in duplicate earthquakes from errors in locations and
higher magnitudes. The number of earthquakes in latter time periods does not show
a significant increase or decrease.
108
Table 2. Chilean earthquakes and tsunamis that caused more than 500 deaths. (Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.)
Epicentre Tsunami deaths
Latitude Longitude Magnitude2 MMI Earthquake

Year Chile region (8) (8) Ms, Mw intensity deaths Chile Total Total deaths
1570 Central 36.8 S 73.0 W 8.3 XI 0 2 000 2 000 2 000

1575 Central 39.8 S 73.2 W 8.5 XI 21 1 300 1 300 1 321
16471 Central 33.4 S 70.6 W 8.5 XI 1 000 1 000
1868 Northern 18.6 S 71.0 W 8.5 XI 25 0003 25 000 25 0003 25 000
1877 Northern 19.6 S 70.2 W 8.3 XI 64 277 2 477 2 541
1906 Central 33.0 S 72.0 W 8.6 XI 4 000 0 0 4 000
1922 Northern 28.5 S 70.0 W 8.4 500 200 200 700
P. Dunbar et al.
1939 Central 36.2 S 72.2 W 8.3 X 30 000 0 0 30 000

1960 Central 39.5 S 74.5 W 9.5 XII 1 000 1 000 1 223 2 223
2010 Central 35.9 S 72.7 W 8.8 VIII 5653 565 5653 565
1
Not tsunamigenic.
2
Magnitudes estimated based on intensity for 1570, 1575, 1647, 1868 and 1877.
3
Deaths from earthquake and tsunami.
MMI, Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale.
8. Review of the frequency of total fatalities from earthquakes

If the number of large earthquakes is not increasing, the question still remains: are
the numbers of deaths resulting from earthquakes increasing? The NGDC/WDC
significant earthquake database not only includes all earthquakes of magnitude 7.5
or greater, it also includes all earthquakes that caused deaths or significant damage.
Although the instrumental record is only complete after 1900, the written record
extends the record backward in time. As discussed in the previous section, many
catalogues were used to compile the database and it is fairly complete after 1700. As
a result, the database was analysed to determine if there is an increasing trend in the
number of deaths.
Figure 13 shows the results of total number of deaths for 10-year periods
beginning from 1701. There is no particular trend, but there are periodic, maxima
peaks during 1721–1730, 1751–1760, 1771–1780, 1911–1920 and 1971–1980 and an
increase during the last decade from 2001 to 2010. To determine if there were
Figure 12. Count of all magnitude 7.5 earthquakes for 10-year periods from 1901 to the
present. (Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.)
Figure 13. Total number of deaths from earthquakes during 10-year periods from 1701 to
the present. (Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.)
extreme events during those time periods, the database was analysed for all
earthquakes from 1701 to the present that caused more than 75 000 deaths. Table
3 shows the results of the analysis. It is interesting to note that those time periods
include the deadliest earthquakes ever recorded: 1727 Iran earthquake killed
77 000; 1780 Iran earthquake killed 200 000; 1920 China earthquake killed 200
000; 1976 China earthquake killed 242 000. These were major earthquakes that
also occurred near large population centres. For example, the 1727 and 1780 Iran
earthquakes occurred in the Tabriz region, a former capital; the 1923 Japan
earthquake occurred in the Kanto region that includes Tokyo; the 1976 China
earthquake occurred in Tangshan, which was already a megacity with a population
of 1.2 million (Grossi et al. 2006); the 2010 Haiti earthquake occurred near the city
of Port-au-Prince with a population of 2.5 million (IHSI 2009). The existence and
enforcement of building codes also affect the probability of death and destruction,
because engineers have a saying that ‘earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do.’
It is also remarkable that four of the top ten most fatal earthquakes since 1701
occurred in the last decade.
9. Review of the frequency of occurrence of tsunamis

The NGDC/WDC tsunami database includes all tsunami events, regardless of wave
height or effects. Since the written record is fairly complete from 1701 onward, figure
14 provides a count of tsunamis for 10-year periods from 1701 to the present. There
is an increase from 10–20 tsunamis every 10 years in the 1700s, to 20–30 tsunamis
every 10 years in the 1800s, and to 30–40 in the 1900s. This is probably due to the
increase in observations and awareness of tsunamis. For example, today if an
earthquake or some other tsunami source generates a wave of a few centimetres that
is only observed in the deep ocean at a DART1 station, it is considered a tsunami
and is added to the database. Earlier it was impossible but now with the deployment
of DART1s such information is available. In addition, the identification of a
tsunami signature from tide gauge information requires higher-resolution data than
Table 3. Earthquakes that caused more than 75 000 deaths from 1701 to the present.
(Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.)
Epicentre
Year Country Latitude (8) Longitude (8) Depth (km) Magnitude Ms, Mw Deaths
1727 Iran 38.0 N 46.3 E 77 000

1780 Iran 38.0 N 46.2 E 20 7.7 200 000
1908 Italy 38.2 N 15.7 E 10 7.1 82 000
1920 China 36.7 N 104.9 E 17 7.8 200 000
1923 Japan 35.1 N 139.5 E 25 7.9 99 331
1976 China 39.6 N 118.0 E 23 7.5 242 000
2004 Indonesia 3.3 N 96.0 E 30 9.0 175 8272
2005 Pakistan 34.5 N 73.6 E 26 7.6 86 000
2008 China 31.0 N 103.3 E 19 7.9 87 652
2010 Haiti 18.5 N 72.5 W 13 7.0 230 000
1
Magnitudes estimated based on intensity for 1727, 1780 events.
2
is usually collected for tide predictions. In the past 5 years many tide stations have
been upgraded from 6-minute dissemination of water level data to 1 minute. This
enhancement allows scientists to observe small tsunamis that would have been
missed in the past.
10. Review of the frequency of total fatalities from tsunamis

Finally, we want to determine if the number of deaths from tsunamis is increasing.
Figure 15 shows the total number of deaths for 10-year periods beginning from 1701.
Although there is a dramatic increase in the last decade from 2001 to 2010 due to the
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, there also appears to be periodic variations from 1701–
1710, 1751–1760, 1861–1870, 1881–1890 and 1891–1900. To determine if there were
unusual or extreme events during those time periods, the database was analysed for
all tsunamis from 1701 to the present that caused more than 10 000 deaths. Table 4
shows the results of the analysis. Note that those time periods include the deadliest
Figure 14. Count of all tsunamis for 10-year periods from 1701 to the present. (Source:
National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.)
Figure 15. Total number of deaths from tsunamis for 10-year periods from 1701 to the
present. (Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.)
Table 4. Tsunami events that caused more than 10 000 deaths from 1701 to the present.
(Source: National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Center.)
Epicentre or volcano
location
Magnitude1 Maximum water Tsunami
Date Country Latitude (8) Longitude (8) Ms, Mw height (m) deaths
1707 Japan 33.2 N 134.8 E 8.4 25.7 30 0003

1755 Portugal 36.0 N 11.0 W 8.5 30.0 60 0003
1771 Japan 24.0 N 124.3 E 7.4 85.4 13 486
1868 Chile 18.6 S 71.0 W 8.5 18.0 25 000
1883 Indonesia2 6.1 S 105.4 E 35.0 36 000
1896 Japan 39.5 N 144.0 E 7.6 38.2 27 1223
2004 Indonesia 3.3 N 96.0 E 9.0 50.9 227 8983
1
Magnitudes estimated based on intensity for 1707, 1755, 1771, 1868 events.
2
Krakatau volcanic eruption.
3
tsunamis ever recorded: the 1707 Japan tsunami killed 30 000; the 1755 Portugal
tsunami killed 60 000; the 1868 Chile tsunami killed 25 000; the 1883 tsunami
generated from the Krakatau eruption killed 36 000; the 1896 Japan tsunami killed
27 122.
11. Future work

NGDC/WDC is continually updating and quality-controlling the data in the
archive. Field survey data from the Chile and Haiti tsunamis will be added as they
become available. As socio-economic data on the events are finalized the database
will be updated. During the 2010 Chile event there were 25 active DART1 stations
in the Pacific basin. High-resolution 15-s data will be available for the majority of
these stations this summer and these data will be examined for the tsunami signal.
For many of the coastal tide stations, NGDC/WDC, as the archive centre, has access
to the 1-minute data from the stations operated by the US and NOAA. For several
of these stations, there are 15-s data available for short blocks of time. All of these
data will be processed and made available on the web in the near future.
12. Conclusion
The tragic and deadly earthquakes and tsunamis of 2004 and 2010 changed the way
much of the world thinks about geologic hazards. These events also generated
questions about the frequency and severity of these hazards. Is ‘my region’
experiencing more or worse events than in the past? Are major events occurring more
frequently now worldwide than in the past? Are the impacts of these events more
deadly now than in the past? Information on how recent events rank regionally is
easily obtained from the NGDC/WDC global historical hazard databases. Prior to
2010, the most deadly event in the Caribbean, the 1902 eruption of Pelee which
caused 28 000 deaths, is approximately 10% of the 230 000 deaths that resulted from
the 2010 Haiti earthquake. The 2010 Chile earthquake is the second largest
instrumental earthquake in Chile and ranks among the top ten most deadly
earthquakes and tsunamis in the entire history of Chile. Further analysis was
required to determine if these types of events are increasing globally or if the events
are becoming more deadly.
Examination of the NGDC/WDC significant earthquake database revealed that
the total number of magnitude 7.5 earthquakes per decade since 1901 has remained
consistent. Major earthquakes do not appear to be increasing in frequency.
Answering this same question for tsunami events is more difficult, due to the lack of
a sufficiently long definitive record. The database does indicate an increase in the
number of events, but this is almost certainly due to improved reporting and
recording rather than an actual increase in tsunamis.
Further analysis of the total number of deaths from earthquakes and tsunamis
per decade showed that major events throughout history show no particular trend.
But there are a few extreme events. From 1701 through 2000 there were 10
extremely deadly earthquakes resulting in 77 000 to 230 000 deaths. During this
same time, seven deadly tsunamis each caused from 13 000 to 60 000 deaths.
However, the last decade has certainly experienced some of the most devastating
geologic events in history, including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that caused
over 220 000 deaths and the 2010 Haiti earthquake that caused approximately
230 000 deaths. In fact, four of the top ten most deadly earthquakes since 1701
occurred in the last decade. Since the number of magnitude 7.5 earthquakes has
not increased, this is most likely due to increased population along with poorly
constructed buildings.
The last decade has experienced some of the most devastating geologic events in
history with nearly 1 million lives lost worldwide. These results reinforce the need
for increasing our understanding of the earthquake and tsunami hazards in all
regions of the world. Since population is increasing, placing more people at risk, it
is important to dedicate resources to mitigate against the effects of these types of
hazard.
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Do The 2010 Haiti and Chile Earthquakes and Tsunamis Indicate Increasing Trends?

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Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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Do the 2010 Haiti and Chile earthquakes and tsunamis indicate

PAULA DUNBAR*, KELLY STROKER and HEATHER MCCULLOUGH

(Received 4 April 2010; in ﬁnal form 14 April 2010)

*Corresponding author. Email: paula.dunbar@noaa.gov

3. Haiti earthquake and tsunami of 12 January 2010

18.4578 N, 72.5338 W, near Port-au-Prince, Haiti (USGS 2010a). USAID (2010)

Figure 2. Damage to buildings in Port-au-Prince caused by the magnitude 7.0 Haiti

4. Review of historical geologic hazards in the Caribbean and Haiti

5. Chile earthquake and tsunami of 27 February 2010

7 June 1692 Jamaica 17.8 N 76.7 W 1 000 2 000 3 000

Figure 6. A high-rise apartment building near the water-front of Concepción, Chile,

gauge recording in Chile was 2.6 m at Valparaiso. Observations of 1–2 m were

6. Review of historical geologic hazards in Chile

7. Review of the frequency of occurrence of  magnitude 7.5 earthquakes

Latitude Longitude Magnitude2 MMI Earthquake

1570 Central 36.8 S 73.0 W 8.3 XI 0 2 000 2 000 2 000

1939 Central 36.2 S 72.2 W 8.3 X 30 000 0 0 30 000

8. Review of the frequency of total fatalities from earthquakes

9. Review of the frequency of occurrence of tsunamis

1727 Iran 38.0 N 46.3 E 77 000

10. Review of the frequency of total fatalities from tsunamis

1707 Japan 33.2 N 134.8 E 8.4 25.7 30 0003

11. Future work

1998 (Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic).

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7. Review of the frequency of occurrence of magnitude 7.5 earthquakes