Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

Real Estate Market Analysis

3rd Quarter 2010

Data compiled and presented by:

86 Joshua Lane
Palmyra,VA 22963
434.589.5800
Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed AllAroundCharlottesville.com
 We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market
Analysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few things
you should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .

The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS
Multiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however,
is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. All
of the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted.

The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License.
This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with proper
attribution to Strong Team REALTORS.

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We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have any
questions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of the
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by visiting: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com

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Introduction
Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market
Analysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical
in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that
such information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that.

This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local real
estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand that
market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. We
want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best
decisions for them.

Everyone has a “feeling” about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will show
you a true picture of the local real estate market.

Scope of this report

The data in this report looks back at the first 3 Quarters of 2010 (Jan. - Sept.) and compares it to the same
time period in 2009. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle,
Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake
Monticello. This is done so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the
performance of the region.

Strong Team REALTORS

Total Sales By Area
The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Area
for the first nine months of 2010. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total.

For the entire Charlottesville Area, sales volume remains 5% higher than it was at this point last year,
despite the fact that the area was well below last year’s totals over the last three months (more on that
later).

Charlottesville is still the only local area that has seen a decrease in sales this year. Every other area is up
modestly for the year.

It is obvious from these numbers, and especially when we look at the month by month sales later, that the
Homebuyer Tax Credit had a tremendous impact on the housing market. The purpose of the tax credit, and
the reason for extending it through April, was to stimulate the sales of homes, and clearly that objective was
fulfilled.

The downside to the tax credit was that it shifted demand forward a few months, which is obvious from
looking at the month-by-month sales numbers for the area. Once the tax credit expired at the end of June,
sales in area ran into a brick wall. Things have gotten a bit better since then, but our current sales pace and
volume is probably something we can expect to see going into the future.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Total Sales by Area
2,000

1,800

1,600 1,663
1,586

1,400

1,200

1,000

800 851
804

600

400
359
297
200 227
191
137 150 138
95
0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson Total

2009 2010
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello
The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during the first nine months of
2010 and 2009. In the previous chart, both were included in the “Fluvanna” column. Since Lake Monticello
is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is
worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever possible.

The good news here is that both Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello have been able to maintain or
exceed last year’s sales numbers. Fluvanna County has actually seen a whopping 30% increase in sales,
while Lake Monticello has exactly matched the 2009 number of sales for the first three quarters of the
year.

In what is a recurring theme throughout 2010, the Homebuyer Tax Credit is the reason for the increased
sales. In particular, Fluvanna has benefited from a tremendous increase in new construction sales in the
first nine months of the year. Most of this activity was spurred by the tax credit and the incentives being
offered by builders.

Since there is very little new construction occurring in Lake Monticello, it has not experienced that same
bump. We will examine exactly what the state of the market in these two areas a little more closely when
we take a look at the month-by-month sales numbers in just a moment.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales
120
117
108 110 110

96

84
81
72

60

48

36

24

12

0
Fluvanna Co. ONLY Lake Monticello

2009 2010
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
 Charlottesville Area Sales by Month
The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares the
monthly-by-month totals from 2010 and 2009. This chart is important because it gives a picture of the
entire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month.

As was mentioned earlier in this report, you can see what a tremendous impact the tax credit had on sales
when you examine them on a monthly basis. The drop off from June to July was tremendous. Once the
tax credit expired on June 30th, sales in the area ran into a brick wall, falling a whopping 40% below last
year’s level in July. Usually, July is the peak of the selling season, and historically has the most closings. The
tax credit shifted much of that demand into the earlier months, and July numbers suffered greatly as a
result.

The good news is that the sales gap closed significantly in August and September, to levels that were just
slightly below those experienced in 2009. One thing that these numbers make clear, however, is that the
market is not outperforming last year anymore. Now that we are operating in a post-tax-credit market,
these are like to be the kind of numbers we are going to see for the rest of the year.

The question that is impossible to answer is whether or not the tax credit actually brought new buyers to
the market, or simply shifted sales forward. Regardless of the answer, now that the credit is gone, we can
get a better idea of where the market really stands.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Charlottesville Area Sales by Month
400

342
350

300
256 296

250 261

191
200 178 182
216
199 205
156
146
150 173 167
108 148
104 135
132
100
101

50 72

0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2010
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
 Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month
The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the
information is limited to Fluvanna County (including Lake Monticello) on the first chart, and to Lake
Monticello (only) on the second chart.

In looking at the monthly numbers for Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, again the impact of the tax credit
once again becomes evident.

While numbers did drop in July, as they did throughout the area, they didn’t drop so far as to be
significantly lower than July 2009 numbers. One of the reasons for this is that July 2009 was an
uncharacteristic month. Sales in July 2009 were lower in both Fluvanna and Lake Monticello that was
expected.

The good news is that since July, both Fluvanna and Lake Montciello have been able to track reasonably
well along the 2009 numbers. The interesting thing here is that neither 2009 or 2010 has followed
traditional real estate market sales trends in Fluvanna or Lake Monticello. The fact that the overall sales
numbers have remained close in these two years is a good thing, as it might signal a degree of stability, at
least with respect to overall sales numbers for the market in the two areas.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Fluvanna Sales by Month
50

42
41

33
33 35 30
27
26 26
25
24
25 22 26
25
24
23
21 17 17
17 15 19

9 13
8

0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2010
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
 Lake Monticello Sales by Month
20 19
18
17 19 17
16
16
16 16

13 13
14
12 11
10 12
11
10
8 9 7
6

4 3

0
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2010
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
Median Price by Area
The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2010 is compared
to 2009, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY.

The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. The
median price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. The
reason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales at
either extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore,
considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market.

In the first three quarters of 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area was $265,000. In
2010, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area fell to $260,000 (-1.8%). Results for the median
price were mixed across the areas, with some seeing an increase, and others seeing a decrease. In all
cases, however, the difference wasn’t so extreme as to draw significant attention, except for Nelson
County, where the median has fallen 11%.

Lake Monticello experienced a very slight increase (2.5%) in median home price.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Median Price by Area
300,000
300,000
285,000289,965
262,500 268,000 265,000260,000
254,000250,370
247,000
240,500
225,000

201,400205,000
187,500 195,000200,000

150,000

112,500

75,000

37,500

0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

2009 2010
Strong Team REALTORS * This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello. Source: CAAR MLS
Days on Market by Area
The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It shows the average
DOM for the 1st Quarter of 2010. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticello only.

DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes under
contract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the way
the DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect the
true DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, when
DOM isn’t completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the average
DOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower.

The DOM seems to be holding fairly steady in the area. Right now, there is so much volatility in the
inventory, due to listings going off the market and coming back on, or going into foreclosure and coming
back on, that the statistic isn’t as reliable as we would like it to be. The fact remains that we are currently
experiences a definite buyer’s market right now, as the DOM still remains fairly high.

Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while others
remain on the market for months, or even a year or more.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Days on Market by Area
200

180
170
160

140

120
108 107 110
100 103
92
80 87

60

40

20

0
Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

2010
Strong Team REALTORS *This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello. Source: CAAR MLS
Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello
The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake
Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, the
inventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2010, there were
299 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 126 of those were located in Lake Monticello.

We were surprised to see that the inventory numbers for 2010 were actually higher than the numbers for
2009. Given the increase in sales, one would think that inventory should have been slightly lower, but it is
obvious that even more homes must have come on the market than buyers could buy. So it looks like
supply is currently outpacing demand. This trend will need to be examined as we move through the year,
because we would hope that inventories would actually fall, which looks like it is beginning to happen.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month*
399 399
400
400
390
392
381
380 386 375
373 374
377 369
370 376
363
358
360 364

350

340
331
328
330
321 330
320
322

310

300
301
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2010

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month

Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
 Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month*
200

190

180 185

170 176
173 174
162 162

160 166
152 151 151
149 150
150 143 144 144 144
151
137
140 144
142

130
127
120

110

100
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2009 2010

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every month

Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello
The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties in
Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2010 and 2009. The “Fluvanna” column
includes all homes, while “Lake Monticello” refers only to homes in Lake Monticello.

This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receiving
when their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, and
compares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions,
there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect
of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, the
percentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated.

Each percentage point represents $1000 per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price,
the final contract price was $192,000. Fluvanna County home sellers definitely did better, compared to list
price, in the first nine months of 2010 than Lake Monticello sellers did. The reason for this is that many of
the sales in Fluvanna County were new construction homes. Construction companies are usually better at
anticipating the market, and adjusting their prices accordingly. Many regular sellers are reluctant to price
their homes lower, and they suffer the consequences as a result.

As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaning
that many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price at
the time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect to
receive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers and
sellers should act accordingly.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage)
100

99

98 98.18

97 97.24

96
95.98
95.69
95

94

93

92

91

90
Fluvanna Lake Monticello ONLY

2009 2010
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats
The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello in the first half of
2010 and 2009. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. The
chart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold.

There have been significantly more waterfront sales so far in 2010 than there were in 2009 (14 vs. 9). In
looking at the drop in the average sales price for waterfront homes, it is clear that waterfronts are selling
at lower prices than they have in the past. This year has seen more waterfront homes sold under $450,000
than we have seen in quite a while.

While waterfront inventory remains at historic highs, these numbers show that well-priced, high-quality
waterfront homes are still in demand.

There is one thing worth noting that is not reflected in the data in the chart on the next page. The first is
that waterfront homes have sold for 94% of list price in 2010. This reflects the difference in the list price
vs. the sold price at the time of the contract, not the original list price when the home originally went on
the market.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics*
525,000
511,528
472,500
470,000 471,750 466,563
420,000

367,500

315,000

262,500

210,000

157,500

105,000

52,500

0
Median Price Average Price
2009 2010
*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 14 sale in 2010, 9 sales in 2009
Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS
Conclusion
The one thing that is crystal clear from the numbers in the first nine months of 2010 is that this will likely
be known as the “Year of the Tax Credit.” The tax credit had a tremendous impact on sales in the area,
which was the purpose for having it in the first place.

Now that the tax credit is gone, the one encouraging thing that we can see is that sales are still remaining
close to where they were a year ago. We hope that this trend will continue, as it might signal a stabilization
of the market.

One thing that everyone in this market must accept is that the market we are currently experiencing is
likely going to be with us for years, not months. Unless there is some kind of significant change in the
overall economy, where we are is where we can expect to be for the foreseeable future. This isn’t
necessarily a bad thing, as prices have become fairly stable, and sales are still occurring. Those who are able
to accept this realities first are the ones who have the greatest chance for success.

You can rest assured that we will be watching the market closely over the next few months, and you can
count on us to keep you updated and on top of all the changes and news you need to know.

Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and make
an effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and good
information provides the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals.

Strong Team REALTORS

 Thank you
We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & Lake
Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis both
informative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find
it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future market
analyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to Stats@StrongTeamRealtors.com, or sign up
for our regular email newsletter at: http://StrongTeamNewsletter.com

It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary to
achieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have about
real estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise wherever
it is needed. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.

Strong Team REALTORS

86 Joshua Lane
Palmyra,VA 22963
434-589-5800
AllAroundCharlottesville.com

Strong Team REALTORS