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Editorial note: World growth following Asian
crisis ............................................................... 2
This editorial note briefly discusses the implications
of the recent turmoil on the Asian markets for
world economic growth in the near term. It
appears that the trade implications for Europe and
the US are muted, and indeed, the Asian market
turmoil does not negate the inflationary threat for
either continent.
Whither the US Economy? ........................... 5
The key question facing investors and the Federal
Reserve is, to what extent has the outlook for the
US economy changed in light of the turmoil in the
global currency, equity and debt markets?
Arguments on the development of
inflation ......................................................... 7
Inflation is not – as sometimes maintained – dead.
Not even in this ”new” world of increasing global-
Internet:
isation. An analysis of the fundamental determi-
Web site: nants of inflation shows that the internal and exter-
http://www.db-dmg.com nal influences in the USA on the one hand, and
Please ask your contact in continental Europe/Japan on the other, are diamet-
Deutsche Bank/Deutsche rically opposed.
Morgan Greenfell for a
username and password Japan BoJ’s autumn quarterly economic
outlook ......................................................... 16
Market Issues will be available The BoJ said that the recovery has not yet been
on the Internet as of 8:00 p.m. derailed. But, even ahead of the recent equity
EST, October 31, 1997.
market turmoil, regional managers have become
more cautious than at any time since the end of
Date the Endaka back in CY95.
Although huge in population terms, Asia (excluding Japan), accounts for just 8½%
of world GDP. While its share in world trade is considerably higher, its export and
Europe’s exposure to imports are heavily concentrated on the region. As we have discussed in the
Asia (ex Japan) is September issue of our Economic and Financial Outlook, Europe’s exposure appears
limited... rather small, with only just over 7% of European exports going to Asia (excluding
Japan). The four most affected countries, that is, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia,
and Malaysia, account for just 1.7% of European exports. Even under extreme
...and even the US assumptions, economic growth in individual European countries with the highest
exposure is not enough exposure would be limited to about 1/3 percentage point. It is therefore unlikely
to cause concern that the substantially weaker growth outlook in Asia will seriously jeopardize the
current cyclical upswing in Europe. Asia’s share with respect to US exports is
higher but still accounts for less than one-fifth of total exports (ex Japan). It is
therefore unlikely that the impact of the Asian crisis will be sufficient to reverse the
Asia is slowing but world growth remains robust Contributions to World Growth
14 forecast 14 8 forecast 8
OECD
Real GDP, % yoy Real GDP, % yoy
AAAA
World
12 12
AAAA
Latin America World
AAAA
AA Asia 6
AAAA Asia 6
10
AA AA AA
10
AAAA OECD
Asia's slowdown blunts world growth acceleration Liquidity flows and the federal funds rate
1 1 20 whenever liquidity rises 20
forecast
R eal GDP, % yoy Federal funds rate, % above Fed Funds,
AAAA
interest rates head
World 15 15
AAAA
higher
O ECD
AAAA
0.5 A sia 0.5 10 ➍ 10
Latin Am erica
➋ ➌
AA AA AA 5 ➊ 5
AA
AA AA AA
AA AAA AAA
➎
0 AA AAA AAA 0 0 0
Other risks could arise from the high volatility of asset prices. However, while the
sharp fluctuations in the financial markets represent a threat to broader financial
stability in some countries, they are unlikely to threaten US prosperity or the
economic recovery in Continental Europe. Even the 1987 crash, whose magnitude
...as long as the stock was significantly larger, does not appear to have had any substantial effects on
declines do not consumption and investment. Provided that last week’s decline in stock prices
accumulate does not cumulate, our current growth scenario thus remains largely intact. We
will, of course, closely monitor the developments in the financial markets and adjust
our forecasts if necessary.
Mr. Greenspan welcomed the correction of stock prices and said “….it is quite
conceivable that we will look back at this episode…as a salutary event in terms of
its implications for the macroeconomy”. This statement has led most observers to
While the Fed are now believe that the Fed will remain on hold at least for the time being. As long as asset
unlikely to hike rates... prices remain highly volatile and the overall situation remains unsettled, we agree
that the Fed is unlikely to tighten monetary policy. However, we share Mr. Greenspan's
judgement that inflation not deflation is the most likely scenario in the longer term,
...we remain cautious on and with virtually no slack left in the economy the stock market correction is
inflation expected to provide only temporary relief on the interest rate front.
1998
3 3 3 3
1998
1998
2 2 2 2
DMG
DMG
forecast
Consensus forecasts forecast
Consensus forecasts
1 1 1 1
J F M A M J J A S O Full Year J F M A M J J A S O Full Year
3 1998 3 3 3
1998
1997
1998
1997
2 2 2 2
1998
1997
Consensus forecasts Consensus forecasts
1997
1 1 1 1
J F M A M J J A S O Full Year J F M A M J J A S O Full Year
our view, the turmoil in the financial markets and the potential real spill-over effects
from Asia will not fundamentally change this situation. The recovery will gain
momentum and European interest rates are likely to head up, too.
Asia’s economic woes can be traced to the after effects of financial excess. The
Asian financial excess is Japanese corporate sector has over-invested, its banks have over-lent and its
to blame... consumers have over-saved. This week’s industrial production figures confirm that
a staggering 5.3% average yoy increase has occurred since the consumption tax
hike was implemented in March. Given that demand has fallen sharply, the inevitable
...an inventory correction inventory correction is likely to be severe and sharp. Japan is also the most heavily
will not help... exposed industrial country with respect to Asia. Strong banks would be able to
withstand loan losses associated with the ASEAN-4 crisis. Japanese banks do not
fall into this category. Forecasters and analysts are deeply pessimistic. But we
believe that the projections for both profits and growth are not pessimistic enough.
The stock market is vulnerable, and interest rates already at historically low levels
could even fall further.
In the rest of Asia, we believe that the crisis has further to run and may broaden.
...a pessimistic stance is There is increasing risk that economic growth in China could decline significantly.
warranted Inflation has declined almost to zero and it is very unusual for this to occur without
the economy going into recession. The performance of “red chip” stocks fell
severely even before the Hang Seng index took its tumble. Finally, the structural
adjustments for China’s state-owned enterprises, whilst essential to the long-term
health of the economy, have short-term negative consequences.
The outlook of emerging markets in the context of the Asian crisis will be examined
in a report to be published next week. This week’s Market Issues includes four
In particular, we think articles on industrial countries. The first, it addresses the question whether the
China is at significant risk crisis has fundamentally changed the growth outlook for the USA and discusses
the potential impact on Fed policies. The second paper provides a general discussion
of inflation trends and examines whether the co-existence of strong economic
growth suggest a new paradigm. Third, the latest Bank of Japan report is discussed
in light of the ongoing economic contraction. Finally, we examine recent economic
trends in the United Kingdom and the implications for monetary policy.
Plainly, the sudden drop in US equity prices is an indication that investors have
Investors think so, as lowered their estimates of growth and profits. But, given the unsettled conditions
they have lowered their in the domestic and global financial markets, it is difficult to quantify with any
estimates on company certainty the size and the length of the slowdown in the US economy. For that
profits reason and that reason alone, the Fed no doubt is on hold until it can get a better
sense of the basic trend in the US economy.
From our perspective, before one attempts to look ahead it is important to ascertain
Where do we stand? the general trend of the economy today. Only then can one assess the change in
growth from a variety of factors.
Based on the available data it seems clear that the US economy has been on a fast
growth path. Not only did Q3 real GDP rise 3.75% annualized, but the 4.0% rise in
Today, the basic growth real GDP over the past year represented the fastest twelve-month growth
trend is fast performance of the current business cycle. Moreover, the US economy would
appear to have fairly strong forward momentum, given the 5% gain in Q3 final sales
and a pace of inventory building that was nearly halved in the latest period.
Against a backdrop of fast growth with solid forward momentum, analyzing changes
in the growth outlook for the US economy rests on weighing the effects of a
How much will it be number of complex forces, chief among them the reduced growth prospects in
affected? Asean economies; the recent losses of financial wealth and impact on consumer
demand; and the recent declines in US interest rates and the trade-weighted value
of the US dollar.
Of the Asean countries (Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia) initially hit
with currency turmoil, US export exposure is relatively minor and narrowly-based.
In 1996, for example, US export exposure totaled only USD 25 bn, or roughly 4% of
US exports will take a the total. In addition, almost two-thirds of export volume was concentrated in two
small hit categories: electrical machines and nuclear reactors. More recently, currency
turmoil has spread to other Asean countries, most notably Hong Kong, where US
export exposure is somewhat larger.
Similarly, the recent loss of financial wealth, given the 5% pullback in equity prices
Recent financial losses since October 1, should have little net effect on consumer demand. Admittedly,
are very small when the recent sell-off has been swift and sharp but it must be viewed against the
viewed against longer longer trend. Equity prices are still up 22% for the year, and over 100% in the past
trend three years. Thus, even though a much higher percentage of individuals have
leveraged their stock portfolios today as compared to 1987, it would seem that the
store of financial wealth that has been created by the runup in equity prices is still
a net plus for consumer spending.
Admittedly, the effects of lost trade and reduced consumer demand emanating
IMF aid package should from the currency crisis and the sell-off in the equity markets are subject to change
help begin to stabilize the because both situations have yet to stabilize, and there is evidence that the currency
Asean crisis, while faster turmoil is spreading to other emerging markets. However, the announcement that
growth in Europe could the IMF and other sources will provide a emergency aid package of about USD 23
lift export growth bn for Indonesia should help begin to stabilize the situation in Asia. In addition, while
growth in emerging markets could well prove to be less in 1998 than first thought,
growth in Europe — a key export market for the US — looks to be on the rise. Also,
the single most important lesson learned from the 1987 stock market crash is that
consumer demand over the intermediate- to long-run suffers very little from a crash
in financial asset prices as long as other more fundamental factors such as jobs,
wage growth, cash flow and interest rates are positive.
Importantly, the recent fall in interest rates, and to a lesser extent the modest fall in
Lower rates should be a the trade-weighted value of the dollar, should be a powerful stimulus to offset
powerful stimulant to reduced trade flows and lower equity prices. Indeed, the fall in interest rates will
growth allow individuals to extend the reliquification process, freeing up billions of dollars of
cash flow that will be spent in 1998. Further, the fall in the dollar will be a slight
positive for profits and margins.
In the end, the powerful uptrend in liquidity flows in the US should not be interrupted,
but may in fact be lifted by the recent fall in interest rates. In fact, one of the key
Big difference between differences between the stock market crash of 1987, the Mexican crisis of 1995
1987 and 1997: Liquidity and 1997 is the different trend in liquidity flows. In 1987 our liquidity index made a
flows are rising today noticeable downturn while in 1995 the index was posting only smallish gains.
versus contracting back Today, liquidity flows are accelerating to new cyclical highs. With a more positive
then liquidity backdrop, the basic trend in growth in the US should be little changed over
the intermediate- to long-run, but the composition most likely will be different than
initially expected. Internally-generated demand could prove to be somewhat stronger
and external demand somewhat weaker.
Joseph Carson, New York, (212) 469-7540, Joseph LaVorgna (212) 469-7329
Y/Y
Percent Money & Financial Flows
10.0
8.0
1987 1997
6.0
4.0 1995
2.0
0.0
-2.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Quarterly Forecasts
Consumer prices, % yoy
rates recorded over the past 35 years. In Japan, the inflation rate should even fall
from 1 ¾% to under 1 ½% in 1998 – partly due to the base effect of this year's
consumption tax hike .
This year and next, the rate of wage growth will probably continue to slow in many
EU countries. The OECD forecasts the average increase in wage costs per employee
among the EU countries to be 3 ½% in 1997 and 3 ¼% in 1998. The largest
increase is expected in the UK (4% in 1997, 5% in 1998). The organisation
calculates the rise in unit labour costs to average 1 ¼% across the EU in both
years, which will undoubtedly keep a lid on inflation.
EU:
EU: Consumer prices
18 Wages, unit labour costs & inflation 16
% yoy % yoy
15
12
12
8
9
4
6
USA: at NAIRU?
In the USA, the rise in wage and unit labour costs has also slowed compared with
the 1980s, although the decline has been much less pronounced than in Europe.
Wage growth is, moreover, likely to accelerate this year and next on account of the
continued strength of economic growth and the much more favourable labour
market situation than in Europe. The unemployment rate has declined to below 5%
– unlike in Europe, where it has moved upwards in waves with the business cycles
The US unemployment (currently just under 11%) – and is currently less than the low recorded before the
rate is below the level last recession in the USA at the beginning of 1990.
which was until recently
seen as inflation-neutral... The US unemployment rate is thus below the level which was until recently seen
as inflation-neutral. This means inflation should already have accelerated markedly.
The concept of NAIRU (non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment) is founded
on the empirical observation that the rate of price increase accelerates when
unemployment reaches a very low level and slows when unemployment is very
high. If the unemployment rate falls below NAIRU, then labour market bottlenecks
and the beginnings of a wage/price spiral are likely to follow. The fact that inflation
has not yet accelerated as expected could possibly mean productivity growth has
been underestimated. Rationalisation, innovations and new technology, particularly
in telecommunications and data processing, have presumably led to a strong increase
in productivity which has been understated by the official statistics, as pointed out by
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. In view of the significant increase in corporate
earnings and margins, Greenspan believes the official figures are simply wrong.
... but NAIRU does not NAIRU not a constant
remain constant over
many business cycles. NAIRU is not, moreover, a level which remains constant over many business
cycles. In the past few years it has shifted significantly downwards. Changes in
labour market conditions brought about by political measures and demographic
developments, more flexible wage policy and altered reactions on the part of
NAIRU declined economic agents to economic policy measures are likely to have been the main
markedly due to factors behind this. If, for example, counteractive monetary policy measures are
demographic taken sufficiently early, they should curb wage growth, especially if they are
developments, changes in successful in lowering expectations of inflation or even in preventing such
labour market conditions, expectations from arising in the first place. In the 1990s, conditions in the USA
stronger competitive have changed in this way. Another factor behind the downward trend in NAIRU
pressure following could be the heightened pressure from international competition as a result of
increasing globalisation increasing globalisation, which has probably reduced the willingness of companies
and greater concern to agree to demands for higher wages. And as far as employees are concerned, job
about job security security is considered lower than in earlier business cycles in light of the changed
employment conditions (e.g. more redundancies, fewer temporary lay-offs), which
has presumably led to some moderation in wage demands despite the favourable
labour market situation.
EU
6
9
4
6
USA
2
3 Hourly wages, % yoy
% 0 0
85 86 89 91 93 95 97
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
Our calculations, which are based on a simple Philips curve model with adaptive
inflation expectations, show that NAIRU may now have been reached. They give –
for the past 37 years – an average NAIRU of slightly more than 5 ½%. However,
when we exclude the period from 1973 to 1984, in which inflation was largely
determined by the two oil price shocks, NAIRU is found to have fallen to around 4
¾% (in the period 1984 to 1997) from just over 5% (1961 to 1972).
This explains at least in part why the strong rise in employment (by around 5.5
million in 1995 and 1996 combined and by almost 250,000 on average in the past
seven months) and the decline in the unemployment rate to, briefly, 4.8% have not
led to a significant acceleration in inflation. On the contrary, the inflation rate
declined from 3.3% at the end of last year to 2.2% in September. However, it is
barely imaginable that a further reduction in the unemployment rate or a continuation
The considerable at this low level would have no influence on the development of prices.
increase in corporate
earnings and profit The new power of the unions
margins is still absorbing The outcome of the strike at UPS and the demands of the Delta Air Lines pilots for
higher wage costs but additional improvements demonstrate the increasing capacity of the unions – in
new union power the tight labour market environment – to secure sizeable wage increases and thus
harbours the risk that correct the shifts which have taken place in the distribution of wealth to the
price pressures may disadvantage of the labour force over the past few years. The considerable increase
emerge in corporate earnings and profit margins is to some extent still absorbing higher
wage costs before they can feed through to consumer prices. But if the UPS
settlement sets a precedent for other sectors, it is unlikely that the impact of
higher wages will be borne in full by earnings with no spill-over effect on consumer
prices.
Against this backdrop, wage growth will probably accelerate. The OECD expects
wage costs per employee to rise by just over 4 ½% in both 1997 and 1998
(compared with 3 ½% per year in the past six years) and unit labour costs to increase
by 3% this year and 3 ½% in 1998 (after 2 ¾% per year from 1991 to 1996), which
should contribute to the rise we expect to see in consumer price inflation.
Whereas the US output
Output gap: closed in the USA ...
gap suggests that price
increases are in the A crucial determinant of the development of inflation in the longer term is capacity
pipeline ... utilisation in the economy. The higher the capacity utilisation, the stronger the
inflationary effect of labour market tensions in the long term.
With growth above its long-term trend in the USA, the output gap, which in the
1991 recession widened to almost 2% of GDP, will this year more than close. After
a positive gap of just over 1% of GDP in 1997, capacity utilisation could next year
– on the basis of our growth forecast of just over 3 ½% – be significantly more than
2% over its long-term average. This would tend to increase fundamental price
pressure in the USA.
... price risks from ... but still open in Europe and Japan
capacity utilisation in Compared with the USA, the price risks from capacity utilisation in Europe and
Europe and Japan are Japan are still low. In Japan, the output gap is around 3% of GDP this year and is
still low unlikely to narrow significantly in 1998 if our GDP growth forecast of a good 1 ½%
is correct.
In Europe, we put the output gap at an average 1 ½% of GDP this year, declining in
1998 to ¾-1% on the basis of our GDP growth forecast of around 3% in the EU.
The situation varies considerably from country to country, however. While Italy has
an output gap of 3%, in Germany it is just under 2% and in the UK the gap has more
or less closed. The situation in the UK is comparable with that in the USA:
economic growth is strong and capacity utilisation should consequently be more
than 1% above its long-term average next year, which underpins our expectation of
higher inflation. In the continental European countries, on the other hand, the
existing output gaps make fundamental price pressure unlikely.
USA: Output gap & inflation Germany: Output gap & inflation
16 8
14 CPI
% yoy 6
CPI 12
% yoy 10 4
8
2
6
4 0
2
-2
0
Output gap -2 Output gap -4
(actual - potential GDP, (actual - potential GDP,
-4
% of potential GDP) % of potential GDP)
-6 -6
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
There have been similar deviations and comparably low inflation rates in earlier
periods. Interest and exchange rate developments have influenced demand for
It is important that money and temporarily obscured the longer-term links between the money supply
monetary expansion in and inflation, as have non-monetary inflation factors such as oil price shocks,
many countries is steered struggles over the distribution of wealth, changes in indirect taxes or long-term
back to a path consistent programmes to consolidate public finances. It is questionable, however, whether
with stability current factors are influencing demand for money in such a way that an increase in
the money supply will not lead to higher prices. This would be the case, for
example, if the larger money supply were used not only for the purchase of goods
and services but also for storing wealth. The low level of interest rates at present
and, above all, the expectation of rising yields could well lead in this direction.
However, it is also important that monetary expansion in these countries is steered
back to a path consistent with stability in good time so as to avoid endangering the
successes achieved by monetary policy this decade and to enable inflation to be
kept under control in the long term.
USA: USA:
Private consumption in the cycle 135
Investment in the cycle 155
Business cycle Present business
150
Q1 1983 to Q3 1990 130 cycle
since Q4 1991 145
125 140
135
120 130
Business cycle 125
115
Q1 1983 to Q3 1990
120
Present business 110 115
cycle
since Q4 1991 110
105
105
(Fir st quar ter of gr owt h = 100) (First quarter of growth = 100)
100 100
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
These estimates should not be over-rated, however, especially as the link between
exchange rate and inflation has weakened over the past few years. They are only
intended to give an idea of the size of a possible effect. As already described, the
influence of exchange rates in the DEM bloc countries (with the exception of the
Netherlands) is counteracted by opposing domestic effects. In Germany, the only
The DBR commodity gradual recovery of the domestic economy means the scope for passing price
index, based on major increases at upstream level on to the consumer – at least next year – is very
limited, and unit labour costs should fall slightly again in 1998, albeit by less than in
the current year. We expect average inflation in Germany to be 1.8% in 1997 and
1998 respectively. Since domestic demand is stronger in the Netherlands than in
Germany, the exchange rate development suggests inflation there will accelerate
slightly to 2.7% in 1998 from 2.3% in 1997.
2 6 6
Consumer prices
0 (left) 3 3
Consumer prices
% yoy
-2 0 0
60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
For inflation in Europe, oil prices are less significant in USD than in national
currencies. The dampening effect of declining USD oil prices has been much
smaller in Europe, since the European currencies have weakened considerably
against the USD. Oil prices have been declining on an ECU basis since the beginning
of this year, but much slower than in USD, and in the past few months they have
even begun to rise again. In August ECU oil prices were more than 8% above their
pre-year level. The recently slightly weaker USD is now providing some relief here.
However, as we expect it to strengthen again, oil prices on an ECU basis should
rise until around the middle of next year and then stabilise. The expected rise in
prices for other industrial raw materials will also likely exert upward pressure on
European consumer prices.
GBP 90 80
80
70
ITL
70
1990=100 60 60
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 94 95 96 97 98
Conclusion
Inflation is not dead. It is not at such a low level throughout the world because the
increasing globalisation of the world economy is producing permanently low prices.
Today’s low inflation Fierce global competition means that price differentials between comparable goods and
rates are not the result of services cannot be excessive; it does not imply that the absolute level of prices must
increasing globalisation remain constant. The theory of the ”new” era of inflation-free growth cannot maintain
but rather of the that there is now an automatic mechanism which produces price stability without
responsible and stability- external help. The low inflation rates almost all over the world are largely the result of the
oriented monetary responsible and stability-oriented monetary policies pursued in these countries in the
policies pursued in the 1990s. Stability needs to be bought over and over again by a continuation of this policy.
1990s
A prime example of this is the Fed, a forward-looking central bank which, despite
US growth being significantly above potential, has so far shown considerable
restraint in its actions. Globalisation and the closer interweave of the financial
markets have probably helped it by causing a change in the monetary transmission
mechanism, in which the exchange rate now plays a more important role. The
sharp rise in the USD has made the monetary environment significantly more
restrictive, so the Fed may now need to hike key rates to a much smaller extent
than in 1994/95 to achieve its monetary policy aims. In that period, the USD lost
around 10% of its value – in the first seven months of this year it has gained almost
6%. We expect the Fed to hold back until at least the end of this year, tightening
policy in the course of 1998 when there are clearer signs of increasing price
pressure. A 25 bp hike in the Fed funds rate in the first quarter will likely be
followed by further steps. On a 12M horizon we see the Fed funds rate at 6.75%
compared with 5.50% at present.
On the other hand, the weakening of the DEM (and with it the currencies of the
DEM bloc) means that monetary conditions in Europe have eased appreciably, so
the central banks will put themselves on alert. The recent Bundesbank rate hike,
which was followed by the other EMS core countries, was a move to nip inflationary
dangers in the bud and at the same time a signal of concerted monetary policy
action in the run-up to EMU. In view of the predominantly export-driven recovery in
Europe, however, this is unlikely to herald a rapid series of further rate hikes.
The BoJ maintains that “the recovery trend . . . has not been undermined”.
However, it is inappropriate to conclude from this that the BoJ sees the economy
as being in a recovery. Looking back over changes in the tone of comments by BoJ
officials, it is evident that the most recent statement represents a deterioration
from the Bank’s previous view that “Japan’s economy continues on a moderate
recovery trend”. The latter is how the bank expressed its view of the economy up
until the branch managers’ meeting. So the most recent outlook is by no means
positive.
1990=100
%, YoY
114.0 20.0 30.0
Industrial Production
112.0
10.0 25.0
110.0
106.0
-10.0 15.0
Inventory
104.0 (%)
-20.0 Official Discount Rate 10.0
102.0
98.0
-40.0 0.0
96.0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Source : BoJ, MITI.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Note : Shaded areas indicate periods of monetary easing.
Oource : MITI. Note : Thick line is quartery data.
The QEO also notes that the BoJ’s oft-cited virtuous cycle of increasing production,
income and expenditure is in danger of reversing, producing a vicious cycle with
reduced expenditure giving way to lower production and falling income. This
shows that the BoJ has divided its analysis of stagnating consumption along the
lines of 1) reaction to forward demand ahead of the consumption-tax hike, 2) fiscal
policy, including reduced purchasing power due to tax hikes, and 3) income factors,
such as lower purchasing power caused by falling personal income. Such phenomena
as the levelling-off of production and the slowing of corporate earnings growth
pose a real risk to personal income in accordance with point 3) above.
Asian currency and equity market meltdowns not yet factored in by the BoJ.
The BoJ also seemed to pay little attention to either the Asian equity and currency
market turmoil or the threat of asset deflation on the economy, with the report
downplaying the impact of the ASEAN crisis on Japan and suggesting that “the risk
of deflation is negligible”. The past week’s events however will have led the BoJ to
question this view. While the hit from the ASEAN crisis, which we assume to be the
equivalent of a 0.3% detraction from GDP, is not particularly alarming, as the
contagion has now threatened the rest of Asia (as well as global emerging and
developed economies) a much larger negative effect must be considered. Although
it is far too early to assess just how widespread and deep the threatened crisis may
be, certainly the risk to Japanese growth from the loss of competitiveness of
Japanese exports from a pan-Asian currency slump which excludes the yen, and
the dampening effects of weaker Asian growth rates, would be considerable.
Exports to the ASEAN 4 equates to around 12.5% of Japanese exports, but the all-
Asia market is nearer 45.0% of global exports, suggesting that a pan-Asia crisis
could easily knock over 1.0% off GDP.
Aside from the loss of net-export contributions to growth, the other key unknown
stems from the risks to the banking system from the sharp rise in potential bad-
loans to both domestic and Asian firms and the exposure to property risk.
Domestically, the recent fall in the Nikkei has already sharply reduced the profitability
of Japanese banks with a recent Nikkei article suggesting that interim 1 H FY97
valuation losses recorded on bank, security company and construction firm shares
by the top 20 banks topped JPY 2.5 tr, and the unrealised stock market profits
available to these banks slumped from JPY 8.0 tr to just JPY 3.8 tr. Since 2H FY97
began, the Nikkei has plunged further, from around 18,000 in late September to
almost 16,000 in late October. Any substantial move below the 16,000 threshold
would certainly have serious ramifications for some of the top 20 banks, whose
level of unrealised equity profits may have already been exhausted. Japanese
bank’s risk from exposure to the Asian crisis is also of concern, with Japan providing
almost USD 300 bn worth of loans to Asian last year, and some 42% of all loans
made for example to Hong Kong (50% of which is tied to real estate).
The additional burden of rising bad loan costs from overseas at a time of domestic
financial difficulties is clearly something that the Japanese authorities will want to
avoid at all costs. While the serious threat of systemic risk impacting the wider real
economy seems still some way off, in the wake of the past weeks equity and
currency turmoil, the BoJ cannot afford to be complacent. A further cut in the ODR
would of course have little effect but may be considered as a short term emergency
measure, if a further meltdown in the equity market appeared to be unfolding. The
focus however should remain on fiscal rather than monetary policy, with the likely
determinate of the equity market and the domestic growth prospects for next year
largely dependent on whether or not the Hashimoto government is willing to
sponsor a serious round of fiscal stimulus measures for both the corporate and
personal sectors.
Katsuyuki Shibayama, Tokyo, (813) 5401-7276, Peter Frank, London, (171) 545-1163
4 4
10 10
3 3
5 5
2 2
1 1 0 0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
of Commerce (BCC) stated that “the proportion of service sector firms (in Q3)
trying to recruit matched the record level reported last quarter”. Even in the
...with service sector underperforming manufacturing sector, skill shortages as a constraint on labour
employment intentions have risen above the long-term average. Given that many of the long-term
especially strong... unemployed are, through atrophying of skills and benefit dependency, “outsiders”
in the labour market, the effective pool of labour may not be that large. These
statistics are hardly representative of a rapidly decelerating economy.
...and skills shortages The above two factors should underpin consumption growth in coming quarters.
rising as labour market Moreover, it is far from clear that we have yet benefited from the full impact of the
tightens windfall gains. Even in September, car sales were 16% higher than a year earlier,
after a record August. The Bank of England estimated that the latest MORI survey
So outlook for on windfalls translated into additional consumption of some GBP 6 bn, and that this
consumption is good... was a lower bound. This does not suggest a strong case for a weak consumer
sector. The September data is so distorted by the funeral of the Princess of Wales
and unseasonably warm weather that it is useless as a barometer of the economy.
...and windfall spending What is more encouraging is that with the return of more seasonal weather,
is NOT over... retailers are reporting more buoyant conditions. Accordingly, it is unrealistic to
claim that the unwinding of frothy consumer activity over the summer is
representative of a sustained consumer slowdown. In addition to the above signs
of consumer buoyancy, it is worth noting that the GfK consumer confidence
barometer continues to register levels not seen since the late 1980s boom.
...although retail sales
growth may edge down Moreover, the housing market profile in recent months has also been distorted.
after summer froth Turnover growth has slowed from around 30% to 15% currently. Net new
commitments, a useful guide to future activity, have been broadly flat in recent
months. There is however good reason to believe that worries around the election
Housing market is also and in the run up to the (it was feared tax-raising) July Budget led to a temporary rise
key in activity. As a result we may have seen unsustainable sharp increases in house
prices in certain areas, notably London and the South-East. As the market settles
down after the pre-Budget flurry it is reasonable to expect some deceleration in the
activity indices mentioned above. The important points are that not only are the
The market was levels of housing market lending and turnover at the highest for some years but that
artificially boosted in the houses remain undervalued relative to earnings, historically a useful indicator of
summer... continued buoyancy in the housing market. The provision of highly attractive
mortgage deals, particularly fixed-rate, also lessens the effect of the recent 100bp
rise in short rates. We remain confident that house price inflation will be strong in
coming quarters and that housing market turnover will fuel overall economic activity.
...but the level of activity
remains encouraging... Thus far, the argument we are pursuing runs along the lines that while growth
does seem to have eased slightly from a very strong level, it remains robust and
well above trend. This is supported by evidence from the service and, perhaps
...and earnings are inflation risks... ...which call for higher rates.
25 10 16 16
Vacancies, % unemployment (lhs) forecast
Average earnings % yoy (rhs) 9
20 14 14
8
12 12
15 7
6 10 10
10 5
8 8
4
5 6 6
3 %
0 2 4 4
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Summing up, we believe that a general overview of the real economy data may
...with orders and output indicate a mild slowdown from the strong growth seen in recent months, but it
above average levels... most certainly does not herald a deceleration in growth towards trend. This brings
us to the crux of the matter. Having raised rates by 100bp in the four months up
to August, will the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee be satisfied with the
tentative signs of a slowdown from the excessive growth of the summer or will
...reinforced by strong the fact that growth remains strongly above trend cause them to tighten further?
output in Q3. It is of course worth noting that the economy is generally accepted to be at or
above full capacity. Fortunately, the August Inflation Report contains some useful
pointers, namely the upside risks to the central inflation projection. The main two
So while growth may not the Bank noted were M4 money supply and credit expansion and average earnings.
be accelerating...
When the last Inflation Report was published, the Bank warned that with broad
money growth around 9% in real terms “unless that growth rate declines, possibly
...a return to trend is not in response to the policy tightening that has occurred, or there is a large fall in
obvious... velocity, demand and output are unlikely to moderate in line with the central
projection”. The latest data for September shows M4 money supply growth at
11.8%, or still around 9% in real terms. M4 lending growth has moderated slightly
with the three month annualised rate currently 6.4%, but this is unlikely to be
...placing pressure on sustained, especially as mortgage related lending should pick up again in coming
inflation months, and presents an upside risk to the Bank’s inflation projection.
Perhaps even more importantly are recent developments in the labour market. We
Money supply remains a are starting to see rising wage pressures in response to excess labour demand. For
concern for the Bank... a start, average earnings growth has risen to 4.5% from 4.25% in August. Some
have argued that since this was driven by the construction sector it is not representative
...and is showing no signs of a widespread rise in earnings pressure. However, looking at the actual (as
of slowing opposed to underlying) earnings data we can see an effect. Service sector earnings
growth has risen to 4.7%, the highest since the temporary bonus-led increases
Labour market earlier this year. In the last Report, written when earnings growth was 4.25%, the
tightness... Bank warned that “further rises would take earnings growth above the level consistent
with the inflation target in the medium term”. Given that there is a strong possibility
...is pushing up earnings that earnings growth rises to 4.75% in the next month or two, the Bank are likely to
growth... err on the side of caution and moves rates higher as a pre-emptive strike. Moreover,
we expect this pressure on earnings growth to be sustained with the extent of
labour market shortages. With headline RPI inflation having risen to 3.5% (and
...to a level inconsistent expected to rise further in coming months), it is being reported that many wage
with the inflation target settlements are edging higher in response to an RPI-plus formula.. Thus we expect
earnings growth will also remain an upside risk for the Bank going forward and is
likely to be a fundamental factor in a further tightening in monetary policy.
With wage settlements
heading higher... Importantly, inflation has failed to meet the expectations outlined by the Bank in
August. Then they stated that “any remaining effect from the exchange rate
appreciation is likely to appear quite quickly”. This was arguably a major factor
...earnings will remain a behind their forecast of a steady decline in RPIX inflation towards 2% by mid-1998.
problem As it happens, RPIX inflation has refused to decline and, at 2.7%, is no lower than
it was in June. RPIX inflation may fall modestly in coming months, but it is unlikely
to fall below the 2.5% inflation target. Given the expected profile of wage
Moreover, inflation has settlements and the lack of spare capacity in the economy, this must be cause for
(again) overshot the concern for the Bank of England. Additionally, as we detail in Financial Indicators
Bank’s forecast... and Monetary Policy, we expect sterling to gradually depreciate over the next year,
pressuring producer prices. In fact, a lower level of the currency is a key factor in
our forecast of a peak of 8% base rates.
...and stubbornly refuses
to fall in line with Thus, the Bank of England meet on November 5-6 against the background of an
upstream prices... economy at or above capacity, with growth off its peak but still well above trend,
and price pressures are arguably already rising. In order to leave monetary policy
on hold, the Monetary Policy Committee has to be confident that growth is already
...which should unwind slowing to a trend rate sufficiently quickly to avoid upwards pressure on inflation.
next year This is far from the case currently. Even assuming that the windfalls have already
had the full impact on the economy (a racy assumption) domestic demand has
enough momentum to keep growth above trend for several quarters yet. With the
So, the BoE cannot be upside risks in the last Inflation Report having materialised, it seems to us that the
content with the inflation Bank have enough evidence to raise rates further.
outlook...
However, we must acknowledge the recent movements in world equity markets.
While we had expected a move at the November 5-6 meeting, this has been
...and their upside risks thrown into doubt by the recent turmoil in the stock markets. Mervyn King, a
have undoubtedly deputy governor of the Bank, said last week that the moves were “clearly an
materialised. important component” and that “it’s something we’ll discuss at length”. At the
time of writing the FTSE All-Share is 9% down on its peak in early October, but still
20% higher than the average in 1996. Moreover, the majority of UK share
UK equity market fall has ownership is through institutional funds, as opposed to direct holdings: the effect
not been enough to dent on confidence should thus be muted, and indeed is unlikely to alter the current
growth... robust growth outlook. Nevertheless, the volatility and fragility of the financial
markets could cause the Bank to hold fire for one month; much will depend on
whether the markets stabilise in the run up to the meeting.
...but market volatility
could delay rate rise until Beyond the next 25 basis points, the Bank do risk falling behind the curve if wage
December settlements head higher, fuelling inflation pressures. Nevertheless, it is unrealistic to
expect the MPC to move until the risks are clearer. As growth and consumer
spending continues to come in strong, we still expect base rates to head higher, to
8% by Q2 1998. Indeed, as a footnote, the government’s wish to producer greater
Inflation risks point to 8% convergence between the UK and European economies gives the Bank an added
base rates... incentive to dampen price pressures. The Treasury’s briefing paper on the current
state of convergence notes that “it remains to be seen whether the historical
problem of recurrent cycles of wage inflation and unemployment has been addressed”.
...a task given greater Applying the brakes over the next six months could well ensure that the UK does not
incentive for the BoE by fall into the usual wage-price spiral. Moreover, the Chancellor suggested that the he
the need for EMU “would hope to lower the inflation target” in the future as part and parcel of
convergence converging with Europe. Best make sure the present one is attained first.
Notes
8.7
5.4
-1.4
1.2
0.0
-1.0
3.0
10Y
12.4
13.1
-1.0
-2.2
3.1
2.2
-0.9
7.9
3.9
5.2
15.6
-5.2
-3.7
3.3
0.5
-1.8
-3.8
-5.1
-5.0
-2.4
6.9
10.6
5Y
-4.6
-0.5
-2.5
1.7
0.9
10.9
2.7
in JPY
-4.0
-3.2
-3.5
-3.2
-4.5
-4.0
-4.5
-1.2
-3.9
-4.7
-1.8
-1.2
-2.5
0.3
8.2
Cash
3.8
8.4
1.3
39.7
12.7
11.3
25.3
26.7
20.6
24.3
24.0
3.9
-7.3
13.8
-15.5
30.1
16.9
18.7
Equity
15.5
19.8
36.3
12.9
10.2
16.3
6.0
5.6
8.3
7.1
6.0
6.0
4.7
10.3
21.0
10Y
20.3
9.4
15.5
11.2
23.8
12.6
-12.3
-8.1
-2.8
JPY
4.7
5Y
2.1
1.4
5.1
2.9
3.1
1.6
1.7
18.4
4.5
7.6
14.4
4.3
6.5
10.6
18.7
8.8
8.0
10.0
-6.1
-1.6
USD DEM
4.1
12.1
in DEM
-15.4
-6.2
-11.4
1.0
15.8
2.9
2.7
3.6
2.2
3.6
2.8
2.2
3.2
11.1
2.0
Cash
5.0
5.8
16.1
5.8
4.4
7.4
8.4
Commodities
27.0
11.2
20.6
34.1
35.6
19.1
29.0
33.0
23.6
49.6
-0.8
Equity
28.2
21.8
32.7
39.3
25.1
-9.5
45.8
Silver
Gold
CRB
Oil
-2.4
-3.5
-4.5
-5.7
-0.7
-4.4
-4.9
-4.5
-0.6
-1.4
9.1
8.4
1.7
11.5
10Y
4.0
0.2
4.8
1.5
6.7
-3.0
-5.8
3.1
-5.3
-7.3
-8.5
-8.4
7.0
-8.0
-8.6
-7.1
5Y
-4.0
-6.0
-1.9
-2.6
-0.3
-0.9
in USD
-7.0
-8.1
-6.7
-7.9
-7.4
-7.9
-7.3
-7.4
-4.7
-6.7
-5.3
-4.7
-5.9
-2.3
-3.3
4.3
0.1
4.6
Cash
34.8
20.9
22.2
16.3
19.9
-10.6
19.6
25.5
12.7
0.2
8.7
7.3
9.7
31.4
14.5
Equity
11.4
15.5
-18.5
15.6
11.9
6.1
5.7
5.3
7.8
7.6
6.0
15.3
5.2
11.5
7.8
8.0
9.1
5.2
-2.1
10Y
11.4
12.6
8.6
ECU
4.8
7.6
8.7
in local currencies
-9.0
GBP
-2.6
2.1
10.2
1.5
2.4
4.6
3.4
1.6
2.2
2.8
4.2
6.1
8.7
8.3
6.0
2.7
8.0
6.7
5Y
0.9
3.3
2.8
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.8
2.7
3.5
3.5
4.8
5.6
4.6
1.2
Equity Cash
2.9
5.6
4.3
4.5
3.7
0.3
Global Market Performance
January 1 to October 31, 1997
11.2
20.8
18.3
33.5
36.3
29.0
33.8
20.0
29.9
51.8
39.1
25.4
36.2
USD
-9.9
14.5
Netherlands
Switzerland
Currencies
against
Germany
Denmark
Australia
Portugal
Belgium
Sweden
Canada
Finland
Austria
France
Japan
Spain
DEM
USA
USD
ECU
Italy
GBP
JPY