Spring 2019 Weather Outlook

Albuquerque, NM Focus
New Mexico & General US Outlook

Raindance Weather

12th Time is the Charm?

The Return of March in the Southwest

SOURCES: NWS/NOAA/ESRL/CPC/NCDC, SILSO, JAMSTEC/SINTEX, Tropical Tidbits, JISAO, CMC,

BOM (MJO/SOI), Raindance Research, Raindance Models, Wikipedia, Xuru Regression software.
 Nov-Jan Initial Conditions
• El Nino
• Neutral PDO
• Neutral AMO
• Low Sunspot Activity – near solar minimum
• Active MJO
• Spring following wet Monsoon

El Nino is the warming of the Tropical Pacific. Sunspots are proxies for solar
radiation. La Nina is the cooling of the Tropical Pacific. The Monsoon is a wind shift
that brings heavy Summer rains to the SW. The N. Atlantic (AMO) and N. Pacific
(PDO) are expected to not be in their ideal warm or cool phases which promote
specific storm tracks. The MJO is a potent wave of thunderstorms that periodically
moves across the equator and alters storm tracks and temperature patterns.
Weather Bingo
 El Nino Conditions

El Nino conditions developed in September 2018 and spread East through

January 2019. In mid-January the Eastern Pacific at the Equator was warmer
relative to averages than the Western Pacific at the Equator.
 El Nino Conditions II

In mid-November, the core of the El Nino heat below the surface at the equator
was in the Eastern Pacific near South America. That water had mostly surfaced
by mid-January. The remaining warm water is in the Central Pacific and should
surface by March or April. At the same time, the average and cool waters to the
East will surface to the East. The basin wide El Nino in place from Nov-Jan
should shift to a Modoki look in Spring, as the middle of the Pacific is warm
relative to the East and West.
 El Nino Conditions III

The latest ECMWF forecast has El Nino strengthening in March-April before

slowly weakening through at least July. This is consistent with the subsurface
data shown on the next slide.
 El Nino Conditions IV
• In Early February, there was increasing subsurface heat in the 100-180W
zone of the Tropical Pacific, down to 300m.
• Years with similar trends in the 100-180W zone produce strong
temperature anomaly maps for the US.
• Dec-Feb 1982-83, 1989-90 (x3), 2004-05, 2009-10 (x4) as a blend looks like a
good match to the subsurface, and produces a March fairly similar to the
analogs used in this forecast.
Precip Forecasting Methods
 Forecasting Spring Precipitation
• Four methods that forecast March-May precipitation well in Albuquerque
all favor a wet Spring. Details are on the next four slides.

• Solar, Nino 1.2, and Nino 3.4 conditions centered on December imply 1.88
inches of precipitation for Albuquerque, over 30% above normal. This
hind-casting method has an r-squared relationship of 0.59 to Spring
precipitation over the past 40 years.

• Precipitation analogs that replicate observed conditions in every month for

July-December 2018 imply 2.15 inches of precipitation in Albuquerque in
Spring. This method worked quite well last year.

• Precipitation analogs that calculate which years overall match best to July-
December imply only 1.58 inches of precipitation in Spring. The closest
year by this approach is 1974-75. This method also worked quite well last
year.

• A regression of powerful predictive factors ahead of El Nino Springs

implies 1.69 inches of precipitation, +/- 1.30 inches, at 93% certainty. This
method says the wettest month in Spring will see 0.25” to 1.88”
precipitation at 90% certainty.
 NDJ Tropics + Solar Technique

Blending solar activity in the July 2018-June 2019 year with sea
surface temperatures in Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 for the Nov-Jan
period into a re-creation of recent conditions implies about 1.88
inches of precipitation – rain and melted snow – for Albuquerque
during March-May 2019.

This blend features a strong signal for a wet April-May.

 Replication Technique

Given lower solar activity and lower rain in November than shown,
March & May are expected to verify lower than shown, while June will
verify higher. November could not be recreated while still maintaining
high precipitation amounts in Jan-Jun. Last year, the replication
analogs were close, showing 0.31” rain for March-May, and 0.30” fell.
 Objective Match Technique

The objective match technique identifies years with the most similar
precipitation patterns, without re-creating observed conditions.

Using absolute value to calculate distance between each prior month and
what was observed in 2018-19, 1974-75 comes out as the best match.

Many years with major hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast show up in this
method – 1974, 1932, 1969, 1941, 1985, and 1998 was close with Georges.
 Regression Technique

The wettest month in Spring tends to be around 65% of Spring precipitation, as

the percent of Spring precipitation in the wettest month follows a normal
distribution that can not be above 100% or below 33%.

In El Nino, a range for Spring precipitation can be calculated at 93% certainty

using Monsoon rainfall totals, and high temperatures in August, before Spring.
After testing all initial conditions from 1931-2017, 90% of Springs (77/86) had
their wettest month bounded by the two figures calculated at the bottom.
High Temp Forecast Methods
 Albuquerque Spring Highs
• The “best match” July-December technique forecasts Spring highs well,
with 95% certainty that highs will be within 2.3F of the forecast once
forecast conditions are adjusted by 1F for El Nino, Neutral or La Nina
conditions.
– July-Dec data in 2017 predicted a Spring 2018 high of 73.3F, and the
actual high was 74.2F, for an error of 0.9F.

• The best match technique has much colder highs than Spring 2018 for
Albuquerque. March, April and May highs all look much colder than 2018.

• The Spring 2019 high is forecast to be 68.9F, -1.7F against 1951-2010.

Spring highs are forecast to be 5.3F colder in 2019 than in 2018. Analogs
from my Winter forecast (1976) and this Spring forecast (1957, 1969)
showed up as top temperatures matches in the table below.
 Correlations & Spring Temps

When the Atlantic (AMO) is cold during Oct-Dec, the Southern US

tends to see colder temperatures the next Spring. When the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, air flow between the Azores and Iceland) is
positive in October, like it was in 2018, the following March tends to be
colder in AZ & NM. The NAO and AMO are both more favorable for
cold in Spring than they were last year for the Southwest US.
 Correlations & Spring Temps II

Low solar conditions in March tend to warm up the Southeastern third of the
US. The analog blend used has much higher solar conditions than March 2019
will, so the SW is expected to be somewhat drier, with the SE warmer.
Spring from the Winter Regression
• In El Nino winters, Albuquerque high temperatures for Dec-Feb can be
predicted statistically, with high certainty, using Nino 3.4 water
temperatures anomalies in Dec-Feb, the prior Dec-Feb, and July-June
annualized sunspots. The blend selected for winter, rolled forward into
Spring, also calls for a pretty cold Spring.

The winter regression has produced strong blends from October through
at least January for high temperatures. It should continue to work, so long
as El Nino conditions continue in the Pacific.
Spring 2019 Analogs
 Spring 2019 Analogs I
• El Nino conditions are present. This El Nino exists in conjunction
with at least four unusual features that are hints for Spring:
– 1) The SOI, a measure of trade winds in the tropics, went into a La Nina
state in December, which had never happened in December during an
El Nino back to 1931. SOI values of -8 or less are associated with El
Ninos. December was +9.1, and SOI values of +8 or more are
associated with La Nina.
– 2) Hurricane Michael, one of the most powerful land falling hurricanes
on record, hit the US Gulf Coast in 2018, in October. It is rare to get a
major hurricane hit on the Gulf Coast in an El Nino.
– 3) Extremely low solar conditions are present. Certain patterns of cold
and precipitation are far more likely when the sun weighs in on
atmospheric and oceanic patterns.
– 4) Nino 3.4 temperatures had one of the greatest warm ups from the
2017-18 winter to the 2018-19 winter in the past 100 years – an increase
of 1.5C-2.0C, depending on how February finishes.
 Spring 2019 Analogs II
Selected Blend: 1941-42 (x2), 1957-58 (x3), 1969-70 (x2), 1974-75 (x2),
1998-99, 2004-05 (x2), 2009-10 (x2), 2014-15

• PDO: 2014 is thrown in to raise the PDO to slightly positive.

• AMO: A blend to produce neutral conditions was selected.
• El Ninos: 1941, 1957, 1969, 2004, 2009, 2014
• Strong Precipitation Matches: 1941, 1957, 1969, 1974, 1998, 2004, 2009
• Major Hurricane Hits Gulf of Mexico: 1941, 1957, 1969, 1974, 2004
• Similar High Temperature Matches: 1957, 1969, 2004, 2009
• Low Solar: 1974, 2009
• Big Y/Y Warm-up in Nino 3.4: 1957, 1974, 2009
• +SOI in December: 1969, 1974, 1998
• Adjustments to Analogs: +NAO in Oct, lower solar, more positive SOI in
Dec, lower Nino 3.4 ocean temperatures in prior winter.
• The forecast MJO transition from 6/7 on February 1st to 1/2 on March 1st is
similar to several analogs – 1974-75, 1998-99, 2004-05, 2009-10.
• Dec-Jan high temperature anomalies nationally look like the observed
anomalies in 1941, 1957, 1974, 1998, and 2004 to some extent.
 Spring 2019 Analogs III

The blended analogs look like current conditions in the vicinity of North America.
The blend of the analogs is centered on 1978, so if you add 0.2C, the extra heat in
2018-19 would show up. Relationally, the cold/warm pools are in similar spots.
 Spring Analogs IV

Lower sunspot activity and a colder ENSO event last Dec-Feb both favor a
warmer Eastern US in March than the raw blend of the analog data.
ONI (Nino 3.4) and ONIp are relative to the 1951-2010 Dec-Feb base of 26.5C.
Spring 2019 National Maps
 March 2019 Raw Analog Map

The extremely positive NAO in October, La Nina in 2017-18, low solar

conditions, and +SOI in December all favor warmer conditions than shown in
the East. The +SOI favors warmth in the SW too, but is offset by the +NAO.
March 2019 Hand-Drawn Forecast

March is expected to be severely cold in the Plains and warm in FL, the interior
NW and NE. The Southern & Eastern US are expected to be wet.
 April 2019 Raw Analog Map

Cold in the West and Warm in the East. But the cold should move East with time.
 April 2019 Hand-Drawn Forecast

Storminess in the West early on will gradually shut off as the El Nino collapses.
 May 2019 Raw Analog Map

Dry conditions in the SW US and weakening El Nino conditions will see the
cold shift East from where it was centered in April.
 May 2019 Hand-Drawn Forecast

May is expected to turn very hot in the Southern US by the end of the month.
 Spring 2019 Raw Analogs

The core of the cold is expected to be centered East of where it is shown.

The core of the dryness is expected to be in the Midwest in Spring as shown.
Spring 2019 Hand-Drawn Forecast

Heavy Spring Snow is expected in the Plains, and also above 4,500 feet in the
West, above 1,000 feet in the NE US, and above 2,000 feet in TX & the SE US.
 Spring 2019 Snow Anomalies

Analogs continue to favor the Rockies & Plains getting heavy snow, like the
winter analogs. NM, OK, KS, NE, MO and CA are most favored for heavy snow,
above 4,500 feet for California & New Mexico.
Albuquerque Spring Forecast
Spring 2019 Albuquerque Forecast

March is forecast to be BOTH colder than normal and wetter than normal for the
first time in ABQ since March 2005. March 2007 was wet, March 2010 was cold.
 Sanity Checking Spring
• In 1983-84, highs were warmer than in 2018-19 for every month from July
to January. Since 1931-32, this is the only year with warmer highs than
2018-19 each month from July to January.
• In 1986-87, highs were colder than in 2018-19 for every month from July to
January. Since 1931-32, this is the only year with colder higher than 2018-
19 each month from July to January.
• It is likely that highs in Spring will remain in between the bounds of the
two years, although April is expected to verify colder than shown.

• High Temperatures in Albuquerque for July-January are shown below for

1983-84, 1986-87 and 2018-19.

The 1989-90 July-January period had lower precipitation each month

than 2018-19 in the same period, and Spring 1990 was very wet.
 Spring 2019: Storms & Cold
• Analogs average 6.0 days of significant precipitation (0.1” or more) in
Spring 2019 for Albuquerque, above average.
• A split of 3,2,1 is expected for significant precipitation days in March,
April and May respectively.
• Clusters in the analogs favor the following time frames for storms:
– March 4th to March 10th
– March 13th to March 18th
– March 24th to March 27th
– April 6th to April 16th
– April 22nd to April 29th
– May 12th to May 17th
– May 21st to May 29th

• Spring should finish cold and wet overall, with some valley snows, lots
of valley rain, and heavy mountain snow. Hail and severe weather will be
common starting in late March.
 The March Year I
** Albuquerque has not had a wet March since 2007. **

• In 36 years when October is wetter than September back to 1931, as was the
case in 2018, precipitation has always topped 0.00” the following March in
Albuquerque. When October is wetter than September, precipitation is less
likely to be low in March at statistically significant levels. Since 2006, only
2009 and 2011 have featured an October wetter than September.
March Precip Frequency in ABQ by Whether Sept is Wetter than Oct

100%
90%
80% O>S
70% S>O
Frequency

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
>=1.0" >=0.9" >=0.8" >=0.7" >=0.6" >=0.5" >=0.4" >=0.3" >=0.2" >=0.1" >0.00"
March Wetness Above...
 The March Year II
• The July-Jan 2018-19 precipitation pattern in Albuquerque is
closest to the composite of years when March was the snowiest
month of the cold season.

• March 1942, 1958, 1966, 1970, and 2005 followed major hurricane
hits on the Gulf Coast, in an El Nino like March 2019 will. These
Marches as a blend feature above average rain and snow in
Albuquerque, with the excessive precipitation of 1958, a high solar
March, largely cancelled out by the lack of rains in 1966, a low solar
year. These years tend to have extreme March cold in the West.

• March has not been cold in Albuquerque since 2010 against long-
term averages. March accounts for roughly half of all warming in
Albuquerque since 1931.
 The March Year III
• In years with low solar activity, like 2018-19, >=3” snowfall in March is rare
in Albuquerque. The only low solar year to see over 3.0” snow in March
since 1931-32 is 1974-75. Naturally, 1974-75, is the top precipitation match
for July-Dec 2018 in the past 100 years.
• When October is wetter than September, like in 2018-19, March is more
likely see snow, and more likely to see heavier snow.
Odds of March Snow by Sept v. Oct Precip in ABQ

90%

80%

70%
O>S
60% S>O
Frequency

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
>0" >=1" >=2" >=3" >=4"
March Snow
 April & May
• April looks very cold, with above average precipitation. Solar
conditions favor both the cold and a higher than usual chance of a
measurable snowfall after April 7th.
• Dry Nov-Jan periods favor dryness in May, and so a somewhat dry
May is expected. The month will probably have a cold half and a warm
half and finish with near average highs.
• Several unusually cold days are expected in April and early May,
particularly for highs, before the second half of May warms up a lot
and erases much of the cold from earlier in the month.
Forecast Confidence
 Event Confidence

A small number of extremely powerful, cold, moisture rich storms are expected
to move through the SW, including New Mexico in March and April before the
pattern flips drier, and then warmer and drier in May.
 Analog Confidence I
• Analogs are a strong match, as a blend to both high temperatures and
precipitation patterns for July-January in Albuquerque. They also
match ocean temperature spatial patterns in the Tropical Pacific.

Spring analogs are currently closer to February temperatures than the winter
analogs. They appear to be “taking over” as a better match overall.
 Analog Confidence II
Analogs are a strong match, as a blend to both high temperatures and
precipitation patterns for July-January in Albuquerque. They also match
ocean temperature spatial patterns in the Tropical Pacific.
 Analog Confidence III

A warmer version of the analog blend was observed in December 2018:

Nino 4-Nino 3.4 was +2.0C in reality, +1.6C on the analogs.
Nino 3.4-Nino 3 was +1.4C in reality, and +1.3C the analogs.
Nino 3-Nino 1.2 was +2.3C in reality, and +2.6C on the analogs.
 What Can Go Wrong?
• El Nino conditions look like they will gradually weaken. This should lead
to a cold/wet pattern giving way to a warm/dry pattern late. If the El Nino
stops weakening or strengthens, the pattern will be colder/wetter than
depicted. If the El Nino rapidly collapses, a warmer/drier outcome will
occur.
• March has been drier than average for 11 years in a row. An extremely wet
March may occur, as 30-year averages tend to not change much. A lot of
ground has to be made up for the 2001-2030 average to end up similar to
prior 30-year periods.
• March & April will come in warmer than forecast if the expected wetness
and/or snow does not occur.
• If the MJO gets stuck in phases 2/3, March can come in colder than
forecast. If it gets stuck in phases 4/5/6, March will be warmer than
forecast.
 March-May Forecast Context
• Wettest Spring (1.85”) in Albuquerque since 2015.
• Wettest March (0.75”) in Albuquerque since 2005.
• Wettest April (0.75”) in Albuquerque since 2012.
• Coldest Spring High (68.9F) in Albuquerque since 2005.
• Coldest March high (59.8F) in Albuquerque since 2010.
• Coldest April high (67.2F) in Albuquerque since 2004.
• Spring snowfall (2-6”) is expected to be the highest since at least 2012,
and has a chance to beat all years after 1988. The most likely outcome is
the snowiest Spring since 2005.