Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Who Gains from a Trump-Kim
Second Summit in Hanoi?
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 11, 2019

Q1. Who benefits from holding the second Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi President
Trump or Chairman Kim Jong-un?
ANSEWER: Hanoi was North Korea’s first choice because it is a relatively short flight
from Pyongyang and the North Korean embassy can provide administrative and
logistics support. Da Nang reportedly was the first choice of the United States. Hanoi
was chosen as a venue after talks were held in Pyongyang between Korean officials
and the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea. It would appear the U.S. made
the concession to meet in Hanoi so that the venue would not become a sticking point.
President Trump, on the other hand, has to travel a long distance. He has been to
Hanoi before and voiced no objections. Trump met Vietnam’s top leaders after the
APEC Summit in Da Nang in November 2017. This will be Chairman Kim’s first visit
The essential point is that Hanoi is a neutral venue for both North Korea and the
United States. Both parties trust Vietnam to facilitate the meeting by providing a high-
quality venue for the summit, logistics support, security, and acceptable
accommodation. Vietnam cannot influence the outcome of the talks but it can serve
as a diplomatic bridge between the two parties if necessary.
A meeting in Hanoi does not favour either Kim or Trump.
Q2. What do President Trump and Chairman Kim expect to gain from having Hanoi as
the venue?
ANSWER: North Korea reportedly favoured holding the first summit in the capital city
of the ASEAN Chair at that time, Singapore. The second summit is being held in Hanoi
because political unrest in Thailand made Bangkok unsuitable. Vietnam will become
ASEAN Chair in 2020, after Thailand’s tenure ends.
North Korea would like Chairman Kim to pay an official visit to Hanoi to demonstrate
that it is not isolated. Kim can count on ASEAN to counsel dialogue, reciprocity and for
the parties to refrain from the threat of force. Chairman Kim should be keen to learn
how two former enemies reconciled, normalized their relations, signed a bilateral free
trade agreement, and established a comprehensive partnership. Chairman Kim will be
exposed to a vibrant city when he visits Hanoi. He should be interested in learning
about Vietnam’s policy of doi moi while maintaining political stability and its one-party
system.
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From the U.S. point of view there are several advantages in holding the summit in
Hanoi. Over the past five years both the Obama and Trump administrations have come
to value Vietnam’s constructive role in regional and global security. When Vietnam
was a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council it supported non-
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Vietnam has complied with UN
sanctions against North Korea for many years inclouding the current round of
sanctions. Second, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has advocated that North Korea
should study Vietnam’s model of economic reform and opening. Third,
denuclearization of the Korean peninsula will take years to achieve. Vietnam is well
placed to contribute to this process, not only as host of the second summit but also as
ASEAN Chair in 2020 and a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in
2021.
Holding the meeting in Hanoi means that the summit will take place in Asia. Other
stakeholders, such as China and South Korea, will be able to monitor the proceedings.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Who Gains from a Trump-Kim Second Summit
in Hanoi?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 11, 2019. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.