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Suresh Rathi
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment Daily Research Reports
Disclosures and Disclaimer : This report must be read with the disclosures in the Disclosure appendix,
and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. This document does not contain any investment views or opinions.
Thursday
Suresh Rathi Market Forecast 16th February, 2017
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Honestly speaking, bears may test the strength of yesterday’s weakness. But Nifty Auto Index 9523 -3.03%
please note that, confirmation of more weakness ONLY if Nifty slips below 8701 Nifty FMCG Index 22674 0.35%
mark.
Nifty Infra Index 3002 -1.24%
The key negative catalysts surrounding Dalal Street are:
Nifty IT Index 10428 -0.44%
1. Hurting sentiments would be Janet Yellen’s statement, ‘Waiting too long
Nifty Media Index 2993 -0.01%
to remove accommodation would be unwise’. Federal Reserve
Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled to a Senate Banking Committee that Nifty Midcap Index 4007 -1.77%
the central bank could raise interest rates sooner than later, albeit Nifty Metal Index 3011 -1.45%
gradually
Nifty Pharma Index 10138 -1.79%
So, all eyes and ears from here on the incoming data from the U.S, to see
if the labor market continues to strengthen and inflation is moving up to Nifty Reality Index 185 -3.92%
the central bank’s 2% target. Nifty Smallcap Index 6415 -1.81%
2. Disappointing quarterly earnings by Tata Motors and Sun Pharma spoiling Sensex 28156 -0.65%
sentiment.
SGX Nifty 8762 0.09%
3. Strong U.S Dollar.
Preferred trade on Nifty for the day: Chart watchers are bit cautious for the
day: Nifty (8725): Sell between 8751-8761 zone, targeting 8701 and then Key Levels to Watch
aggressive targets at 8645-8655 zone with stop above 8829.
Nifty Support 8685 & 8639
Now, before we get into detail, let’s check out news and analysis which we need Technical Strategy
to know before Dalal Street opens for trade this Thursday morning.
Final Thoughts: Bears may come to life if Nifty slips below the crucial 8701
mark.
Also, for the day, it is perfectly fine to be pessimistic, as long as Nifty is seen
trading below its key hurdle at 8789.
Pharma Stocks in red territory. Sell Cipla with an objective of 548 in near term.
Derivatives Strategies
Changes in Open Interest
(OI) in yesterday’s trade.
Future Call: Sell India Cements February Futures for 2 days at
CMP 153.30. Target: 149-151.75 and then at 144. Stop: 156. Nifty Spot 8724.70 (-0.77%)
Bank Nifty Future 20163.70 (-0.47%)
Option Call: Sell Reliance Capital February CE strike price 480 at VIX 14.21 (+2.97%)
CMP 6.50. Maximum profit per lot: Rs. 9,750/-. Loss: Unlimited. Premium +25 vs +14
Stop Loss: Exit Call Option if Reliance closes above 485.
Nifty Future OI 2.60 crores (+10.17%)
Call writing was evident in 8750 CE as it witnessed 99% rise in its Calls in lakhs (% Change)
open interest. 8700 29.85 (+14%)
8750 6.68 (+99%)
FIIs & DIIs figure was a surprise though, as it was a net buy where
FIIs bought +225.84 crores and DIIs bought +248.98 crores. 8800 61.13 (+19%)
8900 45.86 (+12%)
Change in Stock Open Interest (OI) in previous day’s 9000 79.52 (+13%)
trade.
Pivot Point
PP : Pivot Point : This is trigger point for weekly buy/sell based on the price range of the previous week.
R1 : Resistance one : 1st Resistance over PP. R2 : Resistance two : 2nd Resistance over R1.
S1 : Support one : 1st support after PP. S2 : Support Two : 2nd support after S1.
As per the tool, the trader should take BUY position just above PP and keep the stop loss of PP and the first target would be R1.
If R1 is crossed then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.
Similarly if price goes below PP the trader should SELL and keep the PP as Stop loss and the first target would be S1.
If S1 is crossed then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.
This is a trading tool. The key to use of this tool is the use of STOP LOSS.
MCX GOLD 29012 28650 27900 29375 30000 Negative We recommend exiting all long positions in Gold. Interweek strategy: Establish fresh short
positions at CMP targeting 28650 and then aggressive targets at 27900 with stop at 29375.
We recommend exiting all long positions in Silver. Interweek strategy: Establish fresh short
MCX SILVER 42499 42100 41650 42950 43700 Negative positions at CMP targeting 42100 and then aggressive targets at 41650 with stop at 42950.
We recommend exiting long positions in Crude Oil. Interweek strategy: Establish fresh
MCX CRUDE OIL 3543 3540 3388 3853 4000 Neutral long positions only above 3750 targeting 3853 with stop at 3640.
We recommend exiting all long positions in Copper. Interweek strategy: Establish fresh short
MCX COPPER 404 391 380 411 425 Negative positions at CMP targeting 391 and then aggressive targets at 380 with stop at 411.
Negative bias for Natural Gas continues. Interweek strategy: Establish fresh short positions
MCX NATURAL 197.10 190.00 175.00 205.00 225.00 Negative at CMP targeting 190 and then aggressive targets at 175 with stop at 205.
GAS
We recommend exiting short positions in USD/INR. Interweek strategy: Establish fresh long
66.88 66.80 66.45 67.21 67.65 Positive positions at CMP targeting 67.21 and then aggressive targets at 67.65 with stop at 66.80,
USD-INR
We recommend exiting all long positions in Gold. Interweek strategy: Establish fresh short
GOLD $ 1226 1205 1187 1231 1250 Negative positions at CMP targeting 1205 and then aggressive targets at 1187 with stop at 1231.
We recommend exiting all long positions in Silver. Interweek strategy: Establish fresh short
SILVER ($) 17.87 17.65 17.33 17.98 18.25 Negative positions at CMP targeting 17.65 and then aggressive targets at 17.33 with stop at 17.98..
WTI CRUDE We recommend exiting long positions in Crude Oil. Interweek strategy: Establish fresh
53.19 51.75 48.5 58 72 Neutral long positions only above 54 targeting 58 with stop at 51.75.
OIL ($ )
Negative bias for EUR/USD continues. Interweek strategy: Maintain sell at CMP targeting
EUR/USD 1.0572 1.0501 1.0475 1.0649 1.0690 Negative 1.0501 and then aggressive targets at 1.0475 with stop at 1.0649.
Positive bias to continue for Dow Jones. Interweek strategy: Maintain buy at CMP targeting
DOW JONES 20550 20230 20068 20425 20550 Positive 20425 zone and then aggressive targets at 20550 with stop at 20230.
DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of Suresh Rathi Group and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for
the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Suresh Rathi Group, its
subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the
correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Suresh Rathi Group or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any
way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis
of this information.
Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to
fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by Suresh Rathi Group in the company research
undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. Suresh Rathi Group has based this document on information obtained from
sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Suresh Rathi Group makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or
liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to
change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and
suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary
substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any
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solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee
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