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Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race continues to trend in Charlie Melancon’s favor. David Vitter’s lead
has shrunk to three points (45% Melancon / 48% Vitter) – down from seven points last week
(42% Melancon / 49% Vitter) and double digits last month (39% Melancon / 52% Vitter). If
Melancon is able to solidify African American voters to traditional Election Day levels, the
Vitter margin further erodes (47% Melancon / 48 % Vitter). Undecided voters give Melancon a
better job rating than they do Vitter – and are warming to Melancon as the election nears, while
cooling on Vitter. Vitter’s initial funding advantage allowed him to out-communicate Melancon
for much of the campaign - but now that both candidates are on the air in a real way, Melancon is
closing quickly. If Melancon is able to finish with a strong paid communications presence,
Louisiana is poised to elect a new senator.
Vitter’s lead continues to erode and is now within the margin of error.
• The trend lines are ominous for Vitter. He currently leads Melancon by only three points
(45% Melancon / 48% Vitter), despite a 7-point lead last week (42% Melancon / 49%
Vitter) and a 13-point lead in September (39% Melancon / 52% Vitter).
• Exit polling from 2008 shows Mary Landrieu won 96% of the African American vote
against former Democrat John Kennedy. Assuming Melancon solidifies 95% of the
African American vote this year, the vote would move to 47% Melancon / 48% Vitter.
The small, but critical, universe of undecided voters will determine the election – and they
appear more favorably inclined toward Melancon than Vitter.
• Traditionally, undecided voters break disproportionately for the challenger, often at levels
of 80% or more - especially when an incumbent is especially polarizing or controversial.
• Melancon receives a 9-point net positive job rating among undecideds (35% Positive /
26% Negative), while as many undecideds give Vitter a negative job rating as a positive
one (38% Positive / 38% Negative).
• Among undecided voters, a better than 2:1 margin indicate their impression of Melancon
has become more favorable in the last two weeks (26% More / 11% Less) - while an
almost 3:1 margin say their impressions of Vitter have grown less favorable (9% More /
26% Less).
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=600 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 general election voters in Louisiana. Interviews
were conducted between October 17-19, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically
based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.0% with a 95% confidence level.