Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Korean Denuclearization: ‘Same
Bed, Different Dreams’
February 16, 2019

Q1. In anticipation of the planned second summit between President Trump and
Chairman Kim, how confident are you that North Korea wants a denuclearized future?
ANSWER: North Korea’s vision of denuclearization includes not only North Korea but
ending threats to North Korea by a nuclear-armed United States, even though the U.S.
withdrew nuclear weapons from South Korea and U.S. Navy ships. North Korea wants
a hlat to U.S.-South Korea military exercises, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South
Korea, an end of the U,S.-South Kortea alliance, a peace treaty with security
guarantees, normalization of diplomatic relations with the United States, and hefty
humanitarian and economic assistance.
The United States appears to be shifting from its initial demand for the Complete,
Verifiable, Irreversible Dismantlement of Nuclear Weapons (CVID) by North Korea to
a more realistic stance to get North Korea to take measures so that it cannot threaten
the U.S.
Q2. Do you agree and do you think that the US can convince North Korea to abandon,
if not suspend, its plutonium enrichment program?
ANSWER: North Korea has gone down this path before with respect to the Yongbyon
nuclear facilities. Chairman Kim Jong-un has mentioned shutting Yongbyon down. But
this a prolonged process and not a one-step action. North Korea insists on
“corresponding measures” for each step that it takes. For example, if North Korea
admits international inspectors, it expects something in return of roughly equal value.
The same holds true for shutting down operations, removing the nuclear fuel rods,
accounting for past production of fissile material, and dismantling the facility. There
are other facilities, test sites, and places where nuclear weapons are stored as well.
Q3. Finally, if the summit is indeed scheduled to be held in Vietnam, what's your
assessment/analysis of the significance of Hanoi serving as the host country for this
second summit?
ANSWER: Vietnam is viewed by all the stake holders – North Korea, United States,
South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia as a trustworthy neutral host. The U.S. and
Vietnam are comprehensive partners. South Korea and Japan are Vietnam’s strategic
partners. Russia and Vietnam are as well comprehensive strategic partners, while
China is a comprehensive strategic cooperative partner.
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There are practical, political and symbolic reasons why Hanoi was chosen.
Practical Reasons. Hanoi is in short flying distance from Pyongyang. As Vietnam’s
capital city both the U.S. and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have
embassies there that can provide administrative and logistic support. All the other
stakeholders have diplomatic missions so they can easily monitor the summit.
Political Reasons. North Korea reportedly wanted to hold a summit with the United
States in the capital of the ASEAN Chair. That was one reason why Singapore was
chosen. Thailand, Vietnam and Hawaii were all mentioned as possible venues for the
second summit. Thailand is the current ASEAN Chair but Bangkok was ruled out due
to the risk of political instability, such as street demonstrations by political parties in
advance of the 24 March national election. Bangkok’s high air pollution may have
figured as well. Vietnam will become ASEAN chair in 2020.
ASEAN has long sought to play a role in facilitating peace on the Korean peninsula.
ASEAN supports UN sanctions while at the same time promoting dialogue and the non-
use or threat of force in inter-state relations. Since North Korea is extremely isolated,
getting a modicum of support from ASEAN would be a minor diplomatic victory for
Pyongyang.
In addition, the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula will take many years.
Vietnam is positioned to play a facilitating role not only as host of the second summit
but at ASEAN Chair in 2020 and as a non-permanent member of the UN Security
Council in 2021. Vietnam is also motivated to boost its international standing as a net
contributor to global and regional security and thus gain diplomatic leverage in its
relations with the major powers.
The U.S. reportedly favored holding the summit in Da Nang, while North Korea
preferred Hanoi. After the latest round of discussions in Pyongyang on the summit
both sides agreed on Hanoi. Chairman Kim Jong-un reportedly sought to make an
official or state visit to Vietnam and that is one reason North Korea chose Hanoi. It is
unclear at this stage if a state visit will take place but Kim will arrive in Hanoi prior to
the second summit.
A decade ago Vietnam quietly hosted talks between Japan and the DPRK on the family
reunion issue. Later, Vietnam played an instrumental role in getting North Korea to
join the ASEAN Regional Forum.
The Vietnamese media have reported that Kim’s agenda will include a visit to the Hai
Phong Industrial Park and Ha Long Bay. Hai Phong is a port city and Ha Long is a tourist
destination. Both face the Gulf of Tonkin.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has held up Vietnam’s model of economic reforms as
an example North Korea should study. Kim has also expressed interest in learning
about Vietnam’s reforms as his visit to the Hai Phong Industrial Park demonstrates. In
addition, Vietnam’s success in negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with the U.S.
(the U.S. is now Vietnam’s second largest export market after the EU) and later raising
relations to a comprehensive partnership should be experiences North Korea could
learn from.
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Symbolic Reasons. Both Vietnam and Korea were divided during the Cold War. Both
experienced armed conflict on their soil with the United States. The DPRK was the
third communist country after the People’s Republic of China and the Soviet Union to
extend diplomatic recognition to the communist Democratic Republic of Vietnam in
January 1950. Hanoi is now the capital of reunified Vietnam. Vietnam and the United
States fought a prolonged war against each other and later normalized relations and
reconciled. The U.S. contributes to war legacy issues such Agent Orange (dioxin)
remediation, while Vietnam continues to provide support for a “full accounting” of
American service personnel Missing-in-Action.
Is sum. there are historical similarities leading to the symbolism that North Korea
could turn out be a success story like Vietnam.

“Korean Denuclearization: ‘Same Bed, Different Dreams’,” Thayer Consultancy

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.