Let's talk about one of the topics of the moment:

John Authers recently stated "The total amount of stock bought back by companies since the
2008 crisis even exceeds the Federal Reserve’s spending on buying bonds over the same period
as part of quantitative easing. Both pushed up asset prices". Liquidity is at record lows but
however those companies spent more than 4 TRILLIONS in equities.

Harvard Business Review recently noted there is a statistical relationship between equity-based
pay and buyback activity: “We find that the more vesting equity the CEO has in a given quarter,
the higher the likelihood is of both buybacks and M&A. Like investment cuts, buybacks and M&A
could be good rather than bad — but we find that vesting equity leads to the bad type.”

This cycle has seen the greatest amount of debt-financed buyback activity in history. Executive
teams have leveraged up their companies to record levels while paying record valuations.

From the TA point of view we have ugly data too:

According to the chart we're on the verge of a huge drop.

Norman Trader stated:

Note the common and concurrent elements of the previous two big market tops (2000 & 2007)
versus now:

New market highs tagging the upper monthly Bollinger band on a monthly negative RSI (relative
strength) divergence – check

A steep correction off the highs that breaks a multi-year trend line – check
A turning of the monthly MACD toward south and the histogram to negative – check

A correction that transverses all the way from the upper monthly Bollinger band to the lower
monthly Bollinger band before bouncing – check

A counter rally that moves all the way from the lower Bollinger Band to the middle Bollinger
band, the 20MA – check

A counter rally that produces a bump in the RSI around the middle zone alleviating oversold
conditions – check

All these events occurring following an extended trend of lower unemployment, signaling the
coming end of a business cycle – check

All these events coinciding with a reversal in yields – check

All these events coinciding with a Federal Reserve suddenly halting its rate hike cycle – check

Can we talk about debt? We can. Never in the history of American corporate debt considered
"investment grade" was there such a high proportion of BBB debt. In the next recession there
will be downgrades and forced sales on a large scale.
Looking at the debt again? Well we have big problems there too:
Just a couple of trillions dollars in the next two years.

Could we continue? We can. NY Fed recession-probability indicator is almost at 24, the highest
level since the last crisis. Above 28% has signaled every recession of the last 50 years. And the
risk is increasing fast: It was at 14.1% in october, 21.4% in December and 23.62 at the moment.
Does it look like it's about to end? Not to me.
Retail Sales fell the most in 9 years. Ok. Let's blame the shutdown, the Trade War or whatever
bullish people want. Why then this is not the only factor of the real economy affected? Why a
record high of 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments?
Going back to equities and earnings, we could be about to experience negative YoY earnings.

A particular case related to cars payments and production: Mercedes sales in the US declined
last year. When did it happen before? Before the last 3 recessions, indicating stress building in
high income households.
Manufactoring is also being hit at the moment. According to Pantheon Macroeconomics,
“Manufacturing is under real pressure from the slowdown in China and the trade war, and we
expect output to drift down over the first half of the year, putting the sector into a mild
recession".