Professional Documents
Culture Documents
February 2019
Siniša Vuković
Afghanistan has reached a stalemate, and it of political pluralism and (some) women’s
is an increasingly painful one. rights—in stark contrast to Taliban ideology.
Lastly, and most importantly, while the
Recent surges of violence have caused
Taliban are certainly able and willing to
more than 1,000 casualties among Afghan
wage insurgency in the months (and years)
troops in just two months, adding to the
to come, they are equally aware that as
striking toll of more than 28,000 killed
long as U.S. and NATO troops remain in the
over the last four years. The impact on the
country, overthrowing the government in
civilian population has been even more
Kabul is nowhere within their reach.
devastating. According to data reported
by the United Nations Assistance Mission However, they are also picking up important
in Afghanistan (UNAMA), in the first nine signals from U.S. officials and commanding
months of 2018 there were 8,050 civilian officers, who are ardently looking for an
causalities, of whom 2,798 died and 5,252 exit strategy from Afghanistan. Conflict
were wounded. weariness has prompted Gen. Austin
Scott Miller, the top U.S. commander in
The upsurge in violence is largely due to the
Afghanistan, to point out that the war “is
increasingly assertive behavior of Taliban
not going to be won militarily” and that the
forces. Thanks in great part to targeted
only option for everyone involved is to look
operations against pro-government militias
for a political solution.
entrusted to guard government-controlled
rural areas, the insurgents over just two Indeed, with no victory in sight,
years managed to nearly double their mounting costs in human lives, wrecked
territorial control (from 9 to approximately infrastructure, and perennially paralyzed
15 percent). governing institutions, Afghanistan seems
to be stuck in a very destructive impasse.
Still, despite this apparent success, the
Not surprisingly, all sides involved, in their
Taliban’s ability to effectively contest the
own way aware that outright military victory
government’s authority has remained
is unattainable, appear to be looking for a
territorially fixed at one third of the country’s
face-saving way out of this predicament
nearly 400 districts. This has largely been
through a negotiated solution.
due to the still-tangible strength of the
Afghan security forces in urban areas, In situations of this kind, negotiations
who have enjoyed external financial and may offer a suitable alternative through
logistical support aimed at shoring up which core interests can be protected and
their capabilities to combat insurgencies promoted. More importantly, negotiated
across the country. Moreover, as a result of solutions generate a unique advantage
increased violence, popular support for the as they grant much needed legitimacy to
Taliban across the country is extremely low. the actors and related interests that have
The insurgents are perceived as the largest been jeopardized by the violence used to
security threat (significantly more than ISIS achieve them unilaterally. However, the
or criminal groups) by all ethnic groups, fact that parties may explore negotiations
especially in rural areas where attacks is primarily an indication of conflict fatigue,
have been most frequent. Their ideology and in no way a guarantee that negotiations
is too extreme for urban Afghans, who are will yield a mutually acceptable solution
inclined to overwhelmingly endorse notions that all parties are willing to implement. As
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Engineering an Endgame in Afghanistan
a consequence, whenever talks start, they rather prone to overestimating its ability to
may be hijacked by one or more actors for yield absolute gains. However, under the
devious reasons—such as using them to auspices of an ongoing diplomatic initiative
stall, regroup, rearm, gather international led by U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, the
support, or improve one’s own capacity. Taliban leadership seems to be interested,
This is most likely if (and when) a party at least on some levels, in exploring the
perceives no sense of urgency to commit to potential benefits of a negotiated solution.
the bargaining process in a meaningful way At the same time, the insurgents are not
and compromise with other sides. refraining from on-the-ground activities
that bolster their confidence in negotiating
Of all parties involved in the war in
from a position of power, as evidenced
Afghanistan, the Taliban seems to be
by a surprise attack in January 2019
the least determined to engage in a
that killed 47 and wounded 54 Afghan
consequential concession-making process.
soldiers. And yet, just a few hours after
Currently, its reluctance to negotiate
that assault took place, direct U.S.-Taliban
directly with the Afghan government is
talks were resumed in Qatar. Although
combined with the sporadic use of targeted
such attacks do not automatically destroy
violence—including attacks on high-ranking
the prospects of a negotiated solution,
Afghan security officials and seizures of
they raise important concerns about the
roads that connect to main urban centers.
depth and scope of the ongoing talks. In
The employment of force is a useful off-
the existing circumstances, it would be
the-table tactical tool used to improve one’s
implausible to expect that current talks yield
bargaining power. This tactical fortitude
a comprehensive peace agreement anytime
permits the Taliban to publicly maintain a
soon. A more realistic strategy would be to
list of maximalist demands. These include a
look for incremental gains through a series
complete withdrawal of foreign troops from
of interim agreements that can serve as
Afghanistan, the full transposition of Islamic
trust-building and momentum-generating
law into the country’s legal framework, and
devices.
a political system that permits the Taliban
to assume a central role in any decision- As in any endgame scenario, success is
making process. contingent upon all parties’ willingness
to make crucial (and costly) concessions
While in conflict dynamics such statements
in order to construct creative solutions.
are useful in order to maintain a sense of
Washington has already indicated that its
resolve and direction, in the negotiation
earlier publicly stated ambition to prevent
process the ultimate goal is to look
the Taliban from seizing any form of control
for formulas that would accommodate
of Afghanistan is no longer a true priority.
essential expectations that inform such
In 2011, President Obama left no doubt
maximalist public claims. To make such
what the U.S. priorities were, claiming:
designs enticing, the parties involved need
“Our purpose is clear: By preventing the
to perceive them as once-in-a-lifetime
Taliban from reestablishing a stranglehold
opportunities that need to be immediately
over the Afghan people, we will deny Al
seized, otherwise they may be lost forever.
Qaida the safe haven that served as a
The Taliban has been perennially incapable launching pad for 9/11.” By contrast, in 2017,
of recognizing such opportunities, and President Trump asserted: “Someday, after
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Engineering an Endgame in Afghanistan
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Engineering an Endgame in Afghanistan
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