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Chart 3: Outstanding Broad Credit and M2 (% y/y) Chart 4: CPI – Residential Costs (% y/y)
24 30
10 10
M2 (LHS) Rent
22 CE forecasts
Broad Credit * (RHS) 8 Private Housing 8
20 25
18
6 6
16 20
14 4 4
12 15
*Broad credit is the PBOC’s total social financing 2 2
10 measure adjusted for the local government debt swap
for consistency.
8 10 0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Chart 5: Global Oil & Domestic CPI Fuel Prices (% y/y) Chart 6: Pig Numbers and Pork Prices
45 Domestic fuel price (LHS) 150 60 -16
CPI - pork (% y/y, LHS)
Domestic fuel price (if prices now frozen)
30 Global oil price (advanced 1m, RHS) 100 45 Pig numbers (3m % y/y, -12
6m adv., inverted, RHS)
CE forecasts 30 -8
15 50
Pig numbers fall,
15 pork prices rise -4
0 0
0 0
-15 -50
-15 4
Chart 7: Producer Prices (% y/y) Chart 8: Producer Prices & Commodity Prices (% y/y)
15 Headline PPI 15 16 75
Finished consumer goods
Industrial inputs 12 CE forecasts
50
10 10
8
25
5 5 4
0 0
0 0 -4
-25
China producer
-8 prices (LHS)
-5 -5
-50
-12 Global commodity prices
(S&P GSCI, renminbi value, adv. 2m, RHS)
-10 -10 -16 -75
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