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Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06

A50 361,879 334,430 336,863 406,160 275,060 290,610 180,094 228,270


A10 356,972 410,010 321,371 423,094 360,790 353,522 182,820 244,300
A20 152,727 222,109 169,631 173,349 147,443 211,264 94,545 134,030
A05 80,621 95,917 100,448 79,323 73,230 94,987 50,665 60,405

A50
600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

A20
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07
197,178 298,502 167,622 341,102 434,552 392,232 405,370 474,914 323,220 289,110
180,390 230,110 184,334 272,322 366,414 370,852 405,880 374,580 424,100 263,510
178,222 140,999 119,952 143,500 236,537 200,300 240,570 350,909 284,584 208,650
49,305 76,490 90,403 69,720 98,073 93,029 74,798 56,407 82,457 87,514

A10
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

A05
120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 rk(1) rk(2) rk(3) rk(4)
305,890 442,310 288,160 426,250 219,410 518,480 0.12 0.44 -0.03 0.15
283,005 285,320 216,080 307,454 176,665 286,330 0.49 0.51 0.05 -0.21
262,960 218,930 139,120 317,120 240,245 317,100 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.21
79,818 82,285 95,548 66,712 78,789 94,289 0.16 -0.07 0.03 -0.16

20 21 22 23 24

20 21 22 23 24
Analisi stagionalità
rk(5) rk(6) rk(7) rk(8) rk(9) rk(10) rk(11) rk(12) Max (rk)
-0.35 -0.18 -0.34 -0.06 -0.07 0.13 0.19 0.75 0.75
-0.55 -0.81 -0.63 -0.54 -0.15 0.02 0.59 0.76 0.76
-0.03 0.16 0.27 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.21 -0.35 0.39
-0.39 -0.35 0.16 0.13 -0.09 0.05 0.22 -0.13 0.22
Media M
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Stagionalità Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06
SI 287,842 293,279
SI 293,730 292,492
NO
NO
Analisi trend
Media Mobile Centrata (k=L) per depurare da stagionalità, ove presente
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07
298,542 304,261 309,132 311,076 316,255 330,415 343,124 352,238 359,719 369,267
294,381 295,881 296,497 295,385 295,809 301,692 304,889 309,598 312,501 312,766
Regr.lineare: y=a+b*t
Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 b a
7,458 274,455
1,948 287,808
5,555 134,926
91 78,496
Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06
A50 361,879 334,430 336,863 406,160 275,060

Modello di Brown
a 0.2
i 11 10 9 8 7
[a(1-a)^ì]*Dt-i 5,860 9,332 10,529 13,602 19,919
P0 314,453

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08


A50 545,345 510,263 523,412 643,472 323,447

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08


Pt 355,258 393,276 416,673 438,021 479,111
Dt-Pt 190,087 116,987 106,739 205,451 -155,664
(Dt-Pt)^2 36,132,946,536 13,686,038,963 11,393,187,703 42,210,154,902 24,231,318,007
Abs(Dt-Pt) 190,087 116,987 106,739 205,451 155,664
Abs(Dt-Pt)/Dt 0.349 0.229 0.204 0.319 0.481

ME 40,552 Mean Error


MAD 132,410 Mean Absolute Deviation
MAPE 29.58% Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MSE 23,065,545,551 Mean Squared Error
SDE 158,627 Standard deviation of errors

Modello di Winters
a 0.2
g 0.4
b 0.3

Inizializzazione

T(0)=Tdic,07= 7,654
M(0)=Mdic,07= 422,580

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08


S2006 1.27 1.17 1.18 1.43 0.97
S2007 1.15 1.04 1.08 1.26 0.86
S(0)=Si,07= 1.21 1.11 1.13 1.34 0.91
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08
Pt 521,504 491,182 516,678 631,048 440,823
Mt 434,167 446,840 458,637 471,569 457,649
Tt 9,227 10,605 11,082 11,822 1,525
St 1.23 1.12 1.13 1.35 0.85
Dt-Pt 23,841 19,081 6,734 12,424 -117,376
(Dt-Pt)^2 568,377,013 364,091,705 45,348,050 154,364,429 13,777,084,428
Abs(Dt-Pt) 23,841 19,081 6,734 12,424 117,376
Abs(Dt-Pt)/Dt 0.044 0.037 0.013 0.019 0.363

ME 1,601 Mean Error


MAD 33,605 Mean Absolute Deviation
MAPE 7.89% Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MSE 2,456,684,527 Mean Squared Error
SDE 51,769 Standard deviation of errors

Riassumendo:

Brown Holt-Winters
ME 40,552 1,601
MAD 132,410 33,605
MAPE 29.58% 7.89%
MSE 23,065,545,551 2,456,684,527
SDE 158,627 51,769

ME MAD
40,552 132,410

33,605
1,601
Brown Holt-Winters Brown Holt-Winters

MSE SDE
23,065,545,551
158,627

51,769
2,456,684,527

Brown Holt-Winters Brown Holt-Winters


Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06
290,610 180,094 228,270 197,178 298,502 167,622

6 5 4 3 2 1
16,946 18,947 25,059 45,293 36,884 68,200

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08


410,253 356,384 410,255 335,283 526,345 253,645

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08


447,978 440,433 423,623 420,950 403,816 428,322
-37,725 -84,049 -13,368 -85,667 122,529 -174,677
1,423,197,910 7,064,274,121 178,713,825 7,338,785,412 15,013,265,420 30,512,087,582
37,725 84,049 13,368 85,667 122,529 174,677
0.092 0.236 0.033 0.256 0.233 0.689

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08


1.02 0.63 0.80 0.69 1.05 0.59
0.77 0.81 1.17 0.77 1.13 0.58
0.89 0.72 0.99 0.73 1.09 0.59
Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08
410,482 332,673 465,614 335,018 500,806 272,709
459,123 467,193 460,117 459,837 464,201 459,241
1,505 4,131 -352 -323 1,552 -1,053
0.89 0.73 0.96 0.73 1.10 0.58
-229 23,711 -55,359 265 25,539 -19,064
52,408 562,193,362 3,064,654,604 69,985 652,215,088 363,450,421
229 23,711 55,359 265 25,539 19,064
0.001 0.067 0.135 0.001 0.049 0.075

MAPE
29.58%

7.89%

Brown Holt-Winters
Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07
341,102 434,552 392,232 405,370 474,914 323,220 289,110

0
43,882

Dec-08
689,364

Dec-08
393,387
295,977
87,602,576,235
295,977
0.429

Dec-08
1.20
1.38
1.29
Dec-08
589,723
473,671
5,140
1.34
99,641
9,928,312,836
99,641
0.145
Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Media 2006 Media 2007
305,890 442,310 288,160 426,250 219,410 518,480 284,814 376,658
Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06
A10 356,972 410,010 321,371 423,094 360,790

Modello di Brown
a 0.2
i 11 10 9 8 7
[a(1-a)^ì]*Dt-i 4,678 7,869 9,955 13,619 15,711
P0 255,921

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08


A10 401,823 389,234 410,354 374,854 453,672

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08


Pt 262,003 289,967 309,820 329,927 338,912
Dt-Pt 139,820 99,267 100,534 44,927 114,760
(Dt-Pt)^2 19,549,670,550 9,853,958,957 10,107,022,285 2,018,430,823 13,169,756,584
Abs(Dt-Pt) 139,820 99,267 100,534 44,927 114,760
Abs(Dt-Pt)/Dt 0.348 0.255 0.245 0.120 0.253

ME 28,812 Mean Error


MAD 84,170 Mean Absolute Deviation
MAPE 25.38% Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MSE 8,552,278,963 Mean Squared Error
SDE 96,591 Standard deviation of errors

Modello di Winters
a 0.2
g 0.4
b 0.3

Inizializzazione

T(0)=Tdic,07= 1,668
M(0)=Mdic,07= 323,356

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08


S2006 1.22 1.40 1.10 1.44 1.23
S2007 1.17 1.18 1.30 1.20 1.35
S(0)=Si,07= 1.19 1.29 1.20 1.32 1.29
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08
Pt 387,799 425,884 388,084 435,482 412,241
Mt 327,374 324,303 328,365 320,997 325,561
Tt 2,608 336 1,827 -1,851 715
St 1.20 1.26 1.21 1.27 1.32
Dt-Pt 14,024 -36,650 22,270 -60,628 41,431
(Dt-Pt)^2 196,666,255 1,343,258,256 495,933,878 3,675,811,977 1,716,562,613
Abs(Dt-Pt) 14,024 36,650 22,270 60,628 41,431
Abs(Dt-Pt)/Dt 0.035 0.094 0.054 0.162 0.091

ME 11,215 Mean Error


MAD 33,455 Mean Absolute Deviation
MAPE 9.36% Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MSE 1,389,491,464 Mean Squared Error
SDE 38,933 Standard deviation of errors

Riassumendo:

Brown Holt-Winters
ME 28,812 11,215
MAD 84,170 33,455
MAPE 25.38% 9.36%
MSE 8,552,278,963 1,389,491,464
SDE 96,591 38,933

ME MAD
84,170
28,812

11,215 33,455

Brown Holt-Winters Brown Holt-Winters

MSE SDE
8,552,278,963

96,591

38,933
1,389,491,464

Brown Holt-Winters Brown Holt-Winters


38,933
1,389,491,464

Brown Holt-Winters Brown Holt-Winters


Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06
353,522 182,820 244,300 180,390 230,110 184,334

6 5 4 3 2 1
22,235 17,269 23,184 29,217 27,658 49,193

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08


385,453 301,234 323,594 231,634 369,244 212,345

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08


361,864 366,582 353,512 347,529 324,350 333,329
23,589 -65,348 -29,918 -115,895 44,894 -120,984
556,424,310 4,270,371,779 895,114,568 13,431,598,240 2,015,487,594 14,637,044,597
23,589 65,348 29,918 115,895 44,894 120,984
0.061 0.217 0.092 0.500 0.122 0.570

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08


1.21 0.62 0.83 0.61 0.78 0.63
0.84 0.90 0.91 0.69 0.98 0.56
1.02 0.76 0.87 0.65 0.88 0.60
Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08
333,801 260,350 314,577 243,178 333,468 236,966
336,374 351,842 362,950 369,278 385,834 389,266
4,754 9,040 9,867 8,451 11,693 8,389
1.06 0.79 0.88 0.64 0.91 0.58
51,652 40,884 9,017 -11,544 35,776 -24,621
2,667,950,500 1,671,521,396 81,305,340 133,261,011 1,279,955,862 606,202,846
51,652 40,884 9,017 11,544 35,776 24,621
0.134 0.136 0.028 0.050 0.097 0.116

MAPE
25.38%

9.36%

Brown Holt-Winters
Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07
272,322 366,414 370,852 405,880 374,580 424,100 263,510

0
35,333

Dec-08
419,234

Dec-08
309,132
110,102
12,122,467,271
110,102
0.263

Dec-08
0.93
0.91
0.92
Dec-08
366,267
409,157
12,989
0.95
52,967
2,805,467,634
52,967
0.126
Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Media 2006 Media 2007
283,005 285,320 216,080 307,454 176,665 286,330 293,336 313,349
Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06
A20 152,727 222,109 169,631 173,349 147,443

Modello di Brown
a 0.2
i 11 10 9 8 7
[a(1-a)^ì]*Dt-i 2,465 5,080 5,377 8,072 14,718
P0 224,862

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08


A20 301,823 286,765 368,942 346,283 317,293

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08


Pt 243,310 255,012 261,363 282,879 295,560
Dt-Pt 58,513 31,753 107,579 63,404 21,733
(Dt-Pt)^2 3,423,798,698 1,008,226,857 11,573,256,420 4,020,099,735 472,340,900
Abs(Dt-Pt) 58,513 31,753 107,579 63,404 21,733
Abs(Dt-Pt)/Dt 0.194 0.111 0.292 0.183 0.068

ME 48,407 Mean Error


MAD 48,407 Mean Absolute Deviation
MAPE 13.72% Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MSE 2,944,959,632 Mean Squared Error
SDE 56,681 Standard deviation of errors

Modello di Winters
a 0.2
g 0.4
b 0.3

Inizializzazione

T(0)=Tdic,07= 7,842
M(0)=Mdic,07= 298,471

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08


S2006 0.97 1.41 1.08 1.10 0.94
S2007 0.94 0.80 0.96 1.40 1.13
S(0)=Si,07= 0.96 1.10 1.02 1.25 1.03
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08
Pt 292,782 349,840 314,846 410,018 333,462
Mt 308,205 305,380 320,042 318,117 319,190
Tt 8,599 4,029 8,282 4,199 2,949
St 0.96 1.05 1.06 1.20 1.02
Dt-Pt 9,041 -63,075 54,096 -63,735 -16,169
(Dt-Pt)^2 81,748,204 3,978,451,090 2,926,357,885 4,062,142,631 261,445,206
Abs(Dt-Pt) 9,041 63,075 54,096 63,735 16,169
Abs(Dt-Pt)/Dt 0.030 0.220 0.147 0.184 0.051

ME -2,032 Mean Error


MAD 40,056 Mean Absolute Deviation
MAPE 11.38% Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MSE 2,376,300,072 Mean Squared Error
SDE 50,915 Standard deviation of errors

Riassumendo:

Brown Holt-Winters
ME 48,407 -2,032
MAD 48,407 40,056
MAPE 13.72% 11.38%
MSE 2,944,959,632 2,376,300,072
SDE 56,681 50,915

ME MAD
48,407 48,407
40,056

Brown Holt-Winters
-2,032
Brown Holt-Winters

MSE SDE
2,944,959,632
2,376,300,072 56,681

50,915

Brown Holt-Winters Brown Holt-Winters


50,915

Brown Holt-Winters Brown Holt-Winters


Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06
211,264 94,545 134,030 178,222 140,999 119,952

6 5 4 3 2 1
14,920 13,674 21,542 22,418 17,807 50,739

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08


352,639 363,462 352,437 345,678 390,263 362,537

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08


299,906 310,453 321,055 327,331 331,001 342,853
52,733 53,009 31,382 18,347 59,262 19,684
2,780,740,193 2,809,973,090 984,851,480 336,607,813 3,512,043,883 387,459,850
52,733 53,009 31,382 18,347 59,262 19,684
0.150 0.146 0.089 0.053 0.152 0.054

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08


1.34 0.60 0.85 1.13 0.90 0.76
0.83 1.05 0.87 0.55 1.26 0.96
1.09 0.82 0.86 0.84 1.08 0.86
Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08
349,977 268,259 311,211 326,361 442,013 355,938
322,629 348,897 370,864 391,669 400,131 415,886
3,145 12,394 16,223 18,056 14,218 14,833
1.09 0.89 0.89 0.85 1.05 0.86
2,662 95,203 41,226 19,317 -51,750 6,599
7,084,173 9,063,676,067 1,699,611,463 373,129,647 2,678,110,445 43,550,673
2,662 95,203 41,226 19,317 51,750 6,599
0.008 0.262 0.117 0.056 0.133 0.018

MAPE
13.72%
11.38%

Brown Holt-Winters
Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07
143,500 236,537 200,300 240,570 350,909 284,584 208,650

0
48,049

Dec-08
410,273

Dec-08
346,790
63,483
4,030,116,666
63,483
0.155

Dec-08
0.91
1.26
1.09
Dec-08
468,068
420,082
10,578
1.05
-57,795
3,340,293,384
57,795
0.141
Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Media 2006 Media 2007
262,960 218,930 139,120 317,120 240,245 317,100 157,314 251,419
Modello di Winters
a 0.2
g 0.4
b 0.3

Inizializzazione

T(0)=Tdic,07= 474
M(0)=Mdic,07= 85,318

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
S2006 1.05 1.25 1.31 1.03 0.95 1.24 0.66 0.79 0.64 1.00 1.18 0.91
S2007 1.19 1.13 0.91 0.68 1.00 1.06 0.97 1.00 1.16 0.81 0.96 1.14
S(0)=Si,07= 1.12 1.19 1.11 0.86 0.98 1.15 0.81 0.89 0.90 0.90 1.07 1.03

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
Pt 96,042 96,397 81,218 64,910 82,100 99,572 68,768 84,529 84,951 88,292 100,654 86,444
Mt 82,108 76,271 77,060 82,679 84,930 83,887 91,380 92,066 95,203 93,501 86,536 86,296
Tt -1,000 -2,935 -1,445 1,380 1,729 620 3,369 2,296 2,632 899 -2,247 -1,444
St 1.06 1.10 1.17 0.95 0.99 1.10 0.89 0.86 0.91 0.85 0.95 1.05
Dt-Pt -20,619 -28,745 20,616 30,323 4,253 -15,929 27,966 -11,966 3,783 -19,556 -41,920 10,290
(Dt-Pt)^2 425,150,981 826,257,586 425,016,063 919,505,883 18,092,000 253,722,965 782,077,164 143,181,900 14,307,556 382,429,273 1,757,327,701 105,879,932
Abs(Dt-Pt) 20,619 28,745 20,616 30,323 4,253 15,929 27,966 11,966 3,783 19,556 41,920 10,290
Abs(Dt-Pt)/Dt 0.273 0.425 0.202 0.318 0.049 0.190 0.289 0.165 0.043 0.285 0.714 0.106

ME -3,459 Mean Error


MAD 19,664 Mean Absolute Deviation
MAPE 25.50% Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MSE 504,412,417 Mean Squared Error
SDE 23,458 Standard deviation of errors