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Sampling Plans
Susanne Dahms
IAFP, San Diego, 2002
Introduction
Sampling plans: Design and means to study their
performance
• Two-class attributes plans for qualitative data
• Two-class and three-class attributes plans for
grouped quantitative data
• Variables plans for quantitative data
Microbiological sampling plans and Food Safety
Objectives
Summary
Microorganisms in Foods 2.
Sampling for Microbiological Analysis: Principles and
Specific Applications.
(2nd ed. 1986, University of Toronto Press, out of
print)
Topics:
The statistical principles underlying attributes
sampling plans and their application to foods.
Topics:
Concepts of probability and sampling
Appropriate sampling plans
Selection of cases and attributes plans
Establishing micro criteria for lot acceptance
Attributes plans:
Qualitative analytical results (presence/absence) or
quantitative results that have been grouped
(e.g. <10 cfu/g, 10 to 100 cfu/g, >100 cfu/g)
Variables plans:
Non-grouped quantitative analytical results
Require distributional assumptions be made
Acceptance probability
Plot of OC curve to visualize
sampling plan performance
dependency on n and c
Proportion defective
n=5, c=0
0.8
Probability of Acceptance
0.6 P(rejection)
0.4
0.2
P(acceptance)
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
P(rejection)=95%
0.0
n=5, c=0
0.8 n=10, c=0
n=20, c=0
Probability of Acceptance
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Acceptance probability
ta bl e
c ce p
a l lya
in
OC function plotted as a arg
rop. m
P
three-dimensional graph
Proportio
n defectiv
e
Client - meeting - _____ - 13
OC Curve Referring to Mean Log CFU/G
mean
0.5 s.d.: standard deviation
(=0.8)
0.4
Probability Density
0.3
s.d. s.d.
0.2
0.1
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Log cfu/g
OC Curve Referring to Mean Log CFU/G
0.5
0.4
Probability Density
0.3
0.1
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Log cfu/g
Three-class sampling plan:
0.6
m M
0.5
acceptable
0.3
0.2
0.1
Proportion
defective
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Log cfu/g
OC Curve Referring to Mean Log CFU/G
Log cfu/g
m
1.0
Proportion defective, pd
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
P(accept)
OC curve
n = 10,
c=2
Probability of acceptance
1.0 pd
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
P(rejection)=95%
0.0
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Mean Log cfu/g
Probability of Acceptance by Mean Log cfu/g (s.d.=0.8)
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Mean Log cfu/g
Probability of Acceptance by Mean Log cfu/g (s.d.=0.8)
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Mean Log cfu/g
Probability of Acceptance by Mean Log cfu/g (s.d.=0.8)
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Mean Log cfu/g
Performance of Sampling Plans
1.0
Two-Class Plan:
0.8
n=5, c=1,
m=1000 cfu/g
Probability of Acceptance
0.2
0.0
1.0
Two-Class Plan:
0.8
n=5, c=1,
m=1000 cfu/g
Probability of Acceptance
0.2
0.0
s.d.=0.8
0.8 s.d.=0.4
s.d.=0.2
Probability of Acceptance
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
With:
m = 1000 cfu/g, M = 10 000 cfu/g,
and standard deviation s.d. = 0.8
With:
m=1000 cfu/g, M=10 000 cfu/g,
and standard deviation s.d.=0.8
With:
m = 0 cfu / 25g,
and standard deviation s.d. = 0.8
With:
m = 0 cfu / 25g,
and standard deviation s.d. = 0.8
0.3
0.2
p0: acceptable
0.1 proportion
defective
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Log cfu/g
Variables Sampling Plans: Decision Rule
Decision rule:
Rejection of lot, if average + k * s.d. > V
Acceptance of lot, if average + k * s.d. <= V
k is depending on n, p0, and α.
0.4
0.3
0.2 26%
0.1
0.0
-1 0 1 2 3 4
Log cfu/g
0.6
Case 12: 2-class plan, n=20, c=0, m=100 cfu/g
0.5 m = FSO
Probability Density
0.4
0.3
0.2 14%
0.1
0.0
-1 0 1 2 3 4
Log cfu/g
Variables Sampling Plans and FSOs
www.icmsf.org
Client - meeting - _____ - 45