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PP 7767/09/2011(028730)

马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

MARKET DATELINE 
每周技术观 点 2010 年 10 月 25 日

原产品和外汇
美元再次发出反弹的迹象…

主要原产品的图表表现:
主要原产品的图表表现:

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures ( 原


图 1∶
∶轻质原油期货
轻质原油期货(
期货(周线图)
周线图)
油)

♦ 在前数周形成一根“黄昏星型态”(evening star)和黑烛
后 , 美 国 轻 质 原 油 期 货 期 货 ( US Light Sweet Crude
Oil)便在上周继续趋低。它再次纪录了另一根小黑烛。

♦ 不过,该原油仍陷困于窄幅波幅内,而温和的买盘也成功抵
消了卖压。

♦ 虽然它以一根黑烛挂收,以建议本周将出现更多跌势,但强
稳扶持力还是出现在 40 周移动平均线(即 77.68 美元),
78 美元主要关卡,以及长期上升趋势线(UTL)(即 74.4
美元)。

♦ 有鉴于此,其下跌空间相当有限,而我们也预料,一旦温和
回调结束,买方将会重返市场。明确的阻力为 87.00 美元。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures (原棕油)


原棕油)
图 2∶
∶原棕油期货(
原棕油期货(周线图)
周线图)

♦ 与其向下填补之前突破 2,500 令吉至 2,760 令吉之间波幅后


所形成的部分“突破缺口”(breakaway gap),原棕油期
货(CPO)上周成功扭转早前的跌势,并以一根“看涨抱线
型态”(bullish engulfing)报收。

♦ 事 实 上, 它也 在周 五 稍 微突破 3,000 令 吉重 要关 口,报


3,007 令吉。

♦ 若涨势能延续,它将会进一步上冲至 3,000 令吉至 3,300 令


吉之间的目标区。

♦ 技术而言,本周所形成的小白烛已足以确认这个突破走势。

♦ 原棕油的当前挑战为捍卫 3,000 令吉,接下来的支撑水平为


2,808 令吉至 2,877 令吉之间。当前阻力水平则是 3,300 令
吉。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露(
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)

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特定外汇的图表解读:
特定外汇的图表解读:

图 3∶
∶令吉兑美元
令吉兑美元(
兑美元(周线图)
周线图) 令吉兑美元
令吉兑美元 Ringgit (令吉)
令吉)/ US$(
(美元)
美元)

♦ 一如所料,令吉兑美元汇率在 3.07 水平,即中期目标筑起


一道基础后,便展开一轮温和的复苏走势。

♦ 惟在写下 3.1357 全周最高点后,它便回调并以一根类似


“流星线”(shooting star)于 3.1056 挂收,显示来日
将出现更多疲弱走势。

♦ 不过,随着动力指标仍向上趋高,美元兑令吉的温和买盘至
少料将会在本周持续。

♦ 换言之,该汇率料将在近期内持稳于 3.07 水平。

♦ 只有当它能冲破 3.07 和 3.00 水平后,令吉才会转俏。图


表阻力为 3.16。

图 4∶
∶日元兑美元
日元兑美元(
兑美元(周线图)
周线图) 日元兑美元
日元兑美元 Japanese Yen (日元)
日元)/ US$(
(美元)
美元)

♦ 在之前形成“三只乌鸦” 形态(three black crows)和


“类似星线”(star-like)后,日元兑美元汇率便于上周持
续走软,惟其步伐已转缓。

♦ 它又再取得另一根“类似星线”,这使到它似乎形成一个类
似“镊底”(tweezer bottom)形态,而这可能会在本周
触发另一波技术反弹。

♦ 若 该 汇 率 发 动 反 弹 , 它 将 会在 近 日 测 试 下 降 趋 势 阻 力 线
(Downtrend Resistance Line 或 DRL)(即 83.8)。

♦ 不过,只要一日还无法取下 87 和 60 周移动平均线(即
89.3)的强力阻力线,那么日元的技术展望还是备受看俏。

♦ 此外,尽管近日图表形态看来相当难以捉摸,但我们还是维
持日元的近期多头目标于 79.8 历史高峰。

图 5∶
∶欧元兑美元
欧元兑美元(
兑美元(周线图)
周线图) 欧元兑
欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar (欧元)
欧元)/ US$(
(美元)
美元)

♦ 上周,欧元兑美元汇率在靠近 0.7068 多个月新低形成 2 根


“类似星线”后,该汇率便处于窄幅波动中。

♦ 随着 它周五于 0.718 挂收,加上随机 指标( stochastic


oscillators)也稍微反弹,该汇率有望在本周再次反弹。

♦ 若它能冲破 0.73,这将会确认复苏步伐。

♦ 反之,如果美元的跌势又再恢复,那么该汇率将再度向下趋
低。

♦ 一旦 跌破近日 的 0.7068 低点,这将会 引发更多跌势至


0.66 令吉至 0.695 之间的区域。

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美元指数 US Dollar Index (DXY)

图 6∶
∶美元指数(
美元指数(周线图)
周线图)
♦ 在前周化出一根“启明星型态”(morning star)后,美
元指数(DXY)便于上周以平盘挂收。不过,它却在图表上
形成一根“十字长影线”(long-legged doji)。

♦ 该蜡烛显示,动力已增加,但近期走向还是维持不明朗。

♦ 虽然随机指标发出一个新“买入”讯号以建议该指数有望在
本周反弹,但我们认为,它必须破除 78 当前阻力,以确认
技术反弹。

♦ 因此,我们预期该指数将在本周于 76 至 78 之间区域进一
步巩固。之后,市场走向的明确讯号才能成形。

♦ 接下来的阻力为 81,至于较低的扶持力则是 74。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
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services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:


Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.

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