Session 10 (Waiting Line Model) FINAL PDF

Waiting-Line Models
(Session 10)
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D–1

Outline
; Characteristics of a Waiting-Line
System
; Arrival Characteristics
; Waiting-Line Characteristics
; Service Characteristics
; Measuring a Queue’s Performance
; Queuing Costs

Outline
; The Variety of Queuing Models
; Model A(M/M/1): Single-Channel
Queuing Model with Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times
; Model B(M/M/S): Multiple-Channel
Queuing Model
; Model C(M/D/1): Constant-Service-Time
Model
; Model D: Limited-Population Model
; Other Queuing Approaches
Waiting Lines
; Often called queuing theory
; Waiting lines are common situations
; Useful in both
manufacturing
and service
industries

Common Queuing Situations
Situation Arrivals in Queue Service Process
Supermarket Grocery shoppers Checkout clerks at cash
register
Highway toll booth Automobiles Collection of tolls at booth
Doctor’s office Patients Treatment by doctors and
nurses
Computer system Programs to be run Computer processes jobs
Telephone company Callers Switching equipment to
forward calls
Bank Customer Transactions handled by teller
Machine Broken machines Repair people fix machines
maintenance
Harbor Ships and barges Dock workers load and unload

Characteristics of Waiting-Line
Systems
1. Arrivals or inputs to the system
; Population size, behavior, statistical
distribution
2. Queue discipline, or the waiting line
itself
; Limited or unlimited in length, discipline
of people or items in it
3. The service facility
; Design, statistical distribution of service
times

Arrival Characteristics
1. Size of the population
; Unlimited (infinite) or limited (finite)
2. Pattern of arrivals
; Scheduled or random, often a Poisson
distribution
3. Behavior of arrivals
; Wait in the queue and do not switch
lines
; No balking or reneging

Parts of a Waiting Line
Population of Arrivals Queue Service Exit the system
dirty cars from the (waiting line) facility
general
population … Dave’s
Car Wash
Enter Exit
Arrivals to the system In the system Exit the system
Arrival Characteristics Waiting Line Service Characteristics

; Size of the population Characteristics ; Service design
; Behavior of arrivals ; Limited vs. ; Statistical distribution
; Statistical distribution unlimited of service
of arrivals ; Queue discipline

Poisson Distribution
e-λλx
P(x) = for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, …
x!
where P(x) = probability of x arrivals

x = number of arrivals per unit of time
λ = average arrival rate
e = 2.7183 (which is the base of the
natural logarithms)

Poisson Distribution
e-λλx
Probability = P(x) =
x!
0.25 – 0.25 –
0.02 – 0.02 –
Probability
Probability
0.15 – 0.15 –
0.10 – 0.10 –
0.05 – 0.05 –
– x –
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 x
Distribution for λ = 2 Distribution for λ = 4
© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 10

Waiting-Line Characteristics
; Limited or unlimited queue length
; Queue discipline - first-in, first-out

(FIFO) is most common
; Other priority rules may be used in

special circumstances

Service Characteristics
; Queuing system designs
; Single-channel system, multiple-
channel system
; Single-phase system, multiphase
system
; Service time distribution

; Constant service time
; Random service times, usually a
negative exponential distribution
Queuing System Designs
A family dentist’s office
Queue
Service Departures
Arrivals facility after service
Single-channel, single-phase system
A McDonald’s dual window drive-through
Queue
Phase 1 Phase 2 Departures
Arrivals service service
after service
facility facility
Single-channel, multiphase system

Most bank and post office service windows
Service
facility
Channel 1
Queue
Service Departures
Arrivals facility
Channel 2
after service
Service
facility
Channel 3
Multi-channel, single-phase system

Some college registrations
Phase 1 Phase 2
service service
Queue facility facility
Channel 1 Channel 1
Departures
Arrivals after service
Phase 1 Phase 2
service service
facility facility
Channel 2 Channel 2
Multi-channel, multiphase system

Negative Exponential Distribution
Probability that service time is greater than t = e-µt for t ≥ 1
µ = Average service rate
1.0 – e = 2.7183
Probability that service time ≥ 1
0.9 –
0.8 – Average service rate (µ) = 3 customers per hour
0.7 –
⇒ Average service time = 20 minutes per customer
0.6 –
0.5 –
0.4 –
Average service rate (µ) =
0.3 – 1 customer per hour
0.2 –
0.1 –
0.0 |– | | | | | | | | | | | |
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
Time t (hours)

Measuring Queue Performance
1. Average time that each customer or object

spends in the queue
2. Average queue length
3. Average time each customer spends in the
system
4. Average number of customers in the system
5. Probability that the service facility will be idle
6. Utilization factor for the system
7. Probability of a specific number of customers
in the system

Queuing Costs
Cost
Minimum
Total Total expected cost
cost
Cost of providing service
Cost of waiting time
Low level Optimal High level

of service service level of service

Queuing Models
The four queuing models here all assume:
; Poisson distribution arrivals

; FIFO discipline
; A single-service phase

Queuing Models
Model Name Example

A Single-channel Information counter
system at department store
(M/M/1)
Number Number Arrival Service

of of Rate Time Population Queue
Channels Phases Pattern Pattern Size Discipline
Single Single Poisson Exponential Unlimited FIFO

Queuing Models
Model Name Example

B Multichannel Airline ticket
(M/M/S) counter

Multi- Single Poisson Exponential Unlimited FIFO
channel

Queuing Models
Model Name Example

C Constant- Automated car
service wash
(M/D/1)

Single Single Poisson Constant Unlimited FIFO

Queuing Models
Model Name Example
D Limited Shop with only a
population dozen machines
(finite population) that might break

Single Single Poisson Exponential Limited FIFO

Model A – Single-Channel
1. Arrivals are served on a FIFO basis and
every arrival waits to be served regardless
of the length of the queue
2. Arrivals are independent of preceding

arrivals but the average number of arrivals
does not change over time
3. Arrivals are described by a Poisson

probability distribution and come from an
infinite population
4. Service times vary from one customer to

the next and are independent of one
another, but their average rate is known
5. Service times occur according to the

negative exponential distribution
6. The service rate is faster than the arrival

rate

λ =
Mean number of arrivals per time period
µ =
Mean number of units served per time period
Ls =
Average number of units (customers) in the
system (waiting and being served)
= λ
µ–λ
Ws = Average time a unit spends in the system
(waiting time plus service time)
= 1
µ–λ

Lq = Average number of units waiting in the

queue
= λ 2
µ( µ – λ )
Wq = Average time a unit spends waiting in the
queue
λ
=
µ( µ – λ )
p = Utilization factor for the system
λ
=
µ

P0 = Probability of 0 units in the system (that is,

the service unit is idle)
λ
= 1–
µ
Pn > k = Probability of more than k units in the
system, where n is the number of units in
the system
k+1
λ
=
µ

Single-Channel Example
λ = 2 cars arriving/hour µ = 3 cars serviced/hour

λ 2
Ls = = = 2 cars in the system on average
µ–λ 3-2
1 1
Ws = = = 1 hour average waiting time in
µ–λ 3-2 the system
λ2 22
Lq = = = 1.33 cars waiting in line
µ( µ – λ ) 3(3 - 2)

λ = 2 cars arriving/hour µ = 3 cars serviced/hour
λ 2
Wq = = = 2/3 hour = 40 minute
µ( µ – λ ) 3(3 - 2)
average waiting time
p = λ/µ = 2/3 = 66.6% of time mechanic is busy
λ
P0 = 1 - = .33 probability there are 0 cars in the
µ
system

Probability of more than k Cars in the System
k Pn > k = (2/3)k + 1
0 .667 ← Note that this is equal to 1 - P0 = 1 - .33
1 .444
2 .296
3 .198 ← Implies that there is a 19.8% chance that
more than 3 cars are in the system
4 .132
5 .088
6 .058
7 .039

Single-Channel Economics
Customer dissatisfaction
and lost goodwill = $10 per hour
Wq = 2/3 hour
Total arrivals = 16 per day
Mechanic’s salary = $56 per day
Total hours
2 2
customers spend = (16) = 10 hours
waiting per day 3 3
2
Customer waiting-time cost = $10 10 = $106.67
3
Total expected costs = $106.67 + $56 = $162.67

Model B- Multi-Channel Model
M = number of channels open
λ = average arrival rate
µ = average service rate at each channel
1
P0 = M–1
for Mµ > λ
n M
λ 1 λ Mµ
∑ 1
n! µ
+
M! µ Mµ - λ
n=0
M
λµ(λ/µ) λ
Ls = P +
2 0
(M - 1)!(Mµ - λ) µ

Multi-Channel Model
M
λµ(λ/µ) 1 Ls
Ws = P +
2 0
=
(M - 1)!(Mµ - λ) µ λ
λ
Lq = Ls –
µ
1 Lq
Wq = Ws – =
µ λ

Multi-Channel Example
λ = 2 µ = 3 M = 2
1 1
P0 = =
1 n 2 2
2(3)
∑ 1
n!
2
3
+
1
2!
2
3 2(3) - 2
n=0
(2)(3(2/3)2 1 2 3
Ls = + =
2 3 4
1! 2(3) - 2 2
3/4 3 3 2 1 .083
Ws = = Lq = – = Wq = = .0415
2 8 4 3 12 2

Multi-Channel Example
Single Channel Two Channels

P0 .33 .5
Ls 2 cars .75 cars
Ws 60 minutes 22.5 minutes
Lq 1.33 cars .083 cars
Wq 40 minutes 2.5 minutes

Waiting Line Tables
Poisson Arrivals, Exponential Service Times
Number of Service Channels, M
ρ 1 2 3 4 5
.10 .0111
.25 .0833 .0039
.50 .5000 .0333 .0030
.75 2.2500 .1227 .0147
1.0 .3333 .0454 .0067
1.6 2.8444 .3128 .0604 .0121
2.0 .8888 .1739 .0398
2.6 4.9322 .6581 .1609
3.0 1.5282 .3541
4.0 2.2164

Waiting Line Table Example
Bank tellers and customers
λ = 18, µ = 20
Lq
Utilization factor ρ = λ/µ = .90 Wq =
λ
Number of Number
service windows M in queue Time in queue
1 window 1 8.1 .45 hrs, 27 minutes
2 windows 2 .2285 .0127 hrs, ¾ minute
3 windows 3 .03 .0017 hrs, 6 seconds
4 windows 4 .0041 .0003 hrs, 1 second

Model-C Constant-Service Model
Average length Lq = λ 2
of queue 2µ( µ – λ )
Average waiting time λ

Wq =
in queue 2µ( µ – λ )
Average number of λ
Ls = Lq +
customers in system µ
Average time 1
in the system Ws = Wq +
µ

Constant-Service Example
Trucks currently wait 15 minutes on average
Truck and driver cost $60 per hour
Automated compactor service rate (µ) = 12 trucks per hour
Arrival rate (λ) = 8 per hour
Compactor costs $3 per truck
Current waiting cost per trip = (1/4 hr)($60) = $15 /trip

8 1
Wq = = hour
2(12)(12 – 8) 12
Waiting cost/trip = (1/12 hr wait)($60/hr cost) = $ 5 /trip

with compactor
Savings with = $15 (current) – $5(new) = $10 /trip
new equipment
Cost of new equipment amortized = $ 3 /trip
Net savings = $ 7 /trip

Model- D Limited-Population Model
T
Service factor: X =
T+U
Average number running: J = NF(1 - X)
Average number waiting: L = N(1 - F)
Average number being serviced: H = FNX
T(1 - F)
Average waiting time: W =
XF
Number of population: N = J + L + H

Limited-Population Model
D = Probability that a unit N = Number of potential

will havefactor:
to wait inX = T customers
Service
queue T+U
F = Average
Efficiencynumber
factor running:
T = JAverage
= NF(1 - X) time
service
H = Average number
Average number of waiting:
units U =LAverage
= N(1 time
- F) between
being served unit service
Average number being serviced: H = FNX
requirements
J = Average number of units W = AverageT(1 - Ftime
) a unit
Average waiting
not in queue or in time: W = waitsXF in line
service bay
Number of population: N = J + L + H
L = Average number of units X = Service factor
waiting for service
M = Number of service
channels

Finite Queuing Table
X M D F
.012 1 .048 .999
.025 1 .100 .997
.050 1 .198 .989
.060 2 .020 .999
1 .237 .983
.070 2 .027 .999
1 .275 .977
.080 2 .035 .998
1 .313 .969
.090 2 .044 .998
1 .350 .960
.100 2 .054 .997
1 .386 .950

Limited-Population Example
Each of 5 printers requires repair after 20 hours (U) of use
One technician can service a printer in 2 hours (T)
Printer downtime costs $120/hour
Technician costs $25/hour
2
Service factor: X = = .091 (close to .090)
2 + 20
For M = 1, D = .350 and F = .960
For M = 2, D = .044 and F = .998
Average number of printers working:
For M = 1, J = (5)(.960)(1 - .091) = 4.36
For M = 2, J = (5)(.998)(1 - .091) = 4.54

Limited-Population Example
Average Average
Numberrequire Cost/Hr
Each of 5 printers for 20 Cost/Hr
repair after hours (for
U) of use
Number
One of
technician a printer in 2Technicians
can serviceDowntime
Printers hours (T) Total
Technicians Down (N - J) (N - J)$120 ($25/hr) Cost/Hr
Printer downtime costs $120/hour
Technician
1 costs
.64 $25/hour $76.80 $25.00 $101.80
2 .46 X 2 $55.20 $50.00to .090)

$105.20
Service factor: = = .091 (close
2 + 20
For M = 1, D = .350 and F = .960
For M = 2, D = .044 and F = .998
Average number of printers working:
For M = 1, J = (5)(.960)(1 - .091) = 4.36
For M = 2, J = (5)(.998)(1 - .091) = 4.54

Other Queuing Approaches
; The single-phase models cover many

queuing situations
; Variations of the four single-phase

systems are possible
; Multiphase models
exist for more
complex situations

Problems
1) A waiting line meeting the M/M/1 assumptions has an
arrival rate of 4 per hour and a service rate of 12 per hour.
What is the probability that the waiting line is empty?
Po = 1 - λ/µ = 1 - 4/12 = 8/12 or 0.667.
2) A waiting line meeting the M/M/1 assumptions has an

arrival rate of 10 per hour and a service rate of 12 per hour.
What is the average time a unit spends in the system and
the average time a unit spends waiting?

3) A crew of mechanics at the Highway Department garage
repair vehicles that break down at an average of λ = 7.5
vehicles per day (approximately Poisson in nature). The
mechanic crew can service an average of µ = 10 vehicles per
day with a repair time distribution that approximates an
exponential distribution.
a. What is the utilization rate for this service system?
b. What is the average time before the facility can return a
breakdown to service?
c. How much of that time is spent waiting for service?
d. How many vehicles are likely to be in the system at any one
time?
(a) Utilization is ρ = 7.5 / 10 = .75 or 75 percent; (b) Ws = 1 /

(10 – 7.5) = 1 / 2.5 = 0.4 days;
(c) Wq = 7.5 / 10*(10-7.5) = 0.3 days; (d) Ls = 7.5 / (10-7.5) =
7.5 / 2.5 = 3 units.
4) At the order fulfillment center of a major mail-order firm,
customer orders, already packaged for shipment, arrive at
the sorting machines to be sorted for loading onto the
appropriate truck for the parcel's address. The arrival rate at
the sorting machines is at the rate of 100 per hour following a
Poisson distribution. The machine sorts at the constant rate
of 150 per hour.
a. What is the utilization rate of the system?
b. What is the average number of packages waiting to be
sorted?
c. What is the average number of packages in the sorting
system?
d. How long must the average package wait until it gets
sorted?
e. What would Lq and Wq be if the service rate were
exponential, not constant?

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Waiting-Line Models

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D–1

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D–2

; Often called queuing theory

; Waiting lines are common situations

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D–4

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D–5

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D–6

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D–7

Arrivals to the system In the system Exit the system

Arrival Characteristics Waiting Line Service Characteristics

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D–8

where P(x) = probability of x arrivals

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D–9

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 10

; Limited or unlimited queue length

; Queue discipline - first-in, first-out

; Other priority rules may be used in

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 11

; Service time distribution

Single-channel, single-phase system

A McDonald’s dual window drive-through

Single-channel, multiphase system

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 13

Multi-channel, single-phase system

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 14

Multi-channel, multiphase system

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 15

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 16

1. Average time that each customer or object

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 17

Cost of waiting time

Low level Optimal High level

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 18

The four queuing models here all assume:

; Poisson distribution arrivals

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 19

Model Name Example

Number Number Arrival Service

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 20

Model Name Example

Number Number Arrival Service

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 21

Model Name Example

Number Number Arrival Service

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 22

Number Number Arrival Service

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 23

2. Arrivals are independent of preceding

3. Arrivals are described by a Poisson

4. Service times vary from one customer to

5. Service times occur according to the

6. The service rate is faster than the arrival

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 25

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 26

Lq = Average number of units waiting in the

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 27

P0 = Probability of 0 units in the system (that is,

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 28

λ = 2 cars arriving/hour µ = 3 cars serviced/hour

© 2008 Prentice Hall, Inc. D – 29

λ = 2 cars arriving/hour µ = 3 cars serviced/hour

p = λ/µ = 2/3 = 66.6% of time mechanic is busy