LESSON 3: CLIMATE CHANGE

OBJECTIVES:
1. Define Climate Change
2. Determine the causes and effects of Climate Change
3. Understand how climate change is related to “natural disasters”; and
4. Integrate the university’s core values of Fortitude, Excellence and Uprightness in
addressing concerns related to climate change and disasters.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Climate Change
Climate has a very serious influence on lives on Earth. It refers to the average weather in
terms of the mean and variability over a certain time-span and a certain area. It is a very important
aspect for health, food production and well-being. Nowadays, human activities are dangerously
affecting the climate in various ways.
Climate change refers to a change in state of climate that can be identified (e.g., by using
statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for
an extended period, typically decades or longer. This may be due to natural internal processes of
external sources such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and persistent
anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (Field, 2014).
Furthermore, the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change defines climate
change as a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters
the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.
On the other hand, other organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
defines climate change broadly as any change in climate over time whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity.

CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. There are various researches about
the causes of climate change. One research according to Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory
(AGWT), humans have caused more than 90% of global warming since 1990 and virtually 100%
of global warming since 1970. The AGWT is currently advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the leading body for the assessment of climate change
established by United Nation Environment Programme (UNEP) and the word meteorological
organization (Scaffeta,2010)
 Another study by Stephenson and Craig (2013) supporting the first argument stating that
growth in consumption exceeds growth in population in developing and developed country;
therefore, “consumers cause climate change”. Furthermore, it was stated that increase in fertility
also increases land use, energy intensity, energy use, water use and carbon emissions.

GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Another cause s the increase in the greenhouse gases. These greenhouse gases such as
carbon dioxide (CO2) absorb heat emitted from earth’s surface. Increase in the atmosphere
concentration of these gases cause earth to warm by trapping more of this heat. Human activities,
especially the burning of fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution have increase
atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 40%, with more than half the increase occurring since
1970.

Figure 3.1. Greenhouse effect

Detailed analyses have shown the warming during this period is mainly a result of the
increased concentration of CO2 and other green house gases. Continued emissions of these gases
will cause further climate change, including substantial increase in global average surface
temperature and important changes in regional climate (National Academy of Sciences,2010). The
combustion of the fossil fuels is not the only anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide. When
ecosystem is altered and vegetation is either burned or removed, the carbon in them is released in
the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. The principal reasons for deforestation are agriculture and urban
growth, and harvesting timber for fuel, construction and paper. Currently, up to a quarter carbon
dioxide emission to the atmosphere can be attributed to land-use change (Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, 2010).
Sulfate aerosols, which enter the atmosphere naturally during volcanic eruptions, ae tiny
airborne particles that reflects sunlight back to space. Industrial activity has increased their
concentration in the atmosphere primarily through the burning fossil fuels containing sulfur.
Anthropogenic emissions of sulfate aerosols have been associated with a net cooling effect .Black
carbon is soot generated from industrial pollution, traffic, outdoor fires, and the burning of coal
and biomass fuels. Black carbon is formed by incomplete combustion especially of coals, diesel
fuels, biofuels and outdoor biomass burning. Soot particles absorbs sunlight, both heating the air
and reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the ground (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001)
On the other hand, natural causes of climate change include changes in the world’s
orbit, the suns intensity, the circulation of ocean and the atmosphere, and volcanic activity.
Changes occurring in the itself can affect the intensity of the sunlight that reaches earth’s surface.
The intensity of sunlight can either cause warming (during periods of stronger solar intensity) or
cooling (during weaker of weaker solar intensity). the sun follows a natural 11-year cycle of small
ups and downs in intensity, but the effect on earth’s climate is small. Changes in the shapes of
earth’s orbit as well as the tilt and the position of earth’s axis can also affect the amount of sunlight
reaching the earth’s surface (National Research Council, 2002)
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change could be more devastating than we could imagine. There are just some of
the possible effects of climate change in the various aspects of our world; agriculture, aquatic
resources and public health
According to US EPA (as cited as Climate Impacts: Climate Change, n.d.) agriculture and
fisheries are highly dependent on specific climate conditions. Trying to understand the overall
effect of climate change to our food supply can be difficult. Increase in the temperature and Carbon
Dioxide (CO2) can be beneficial for some crop places. But to realize these benefits, nutrients
levels, soil moisture, water availability, and other conditions must be met. Changes in the
frequency and severity of droughts and floods could pose challenges to farmers and ranchers.
Meanwhile, warmer water temperatures are likely to cause the habitat ranges of many fish and
many shellfish species to shift, which could disrupt ecosystem. Overall climate change could make
it difficult to grow crops, raise animals, and catch fish in the same ways and the same places we
have done in the past. The effects of climate change also need to be considered with other evolving
factors that affect the agricultural productions, such as change in farming practices and technology
Meanwhile, the effect of climate change in coastal and marine ecosystem includes
adversely influencing organism metabolism and alter ecological process such as productivity and
species interactions. Species are adapted to specific ranges of environmental temperature. As
temperature changes, species geographic distributions will expand or contract, creating new
combination of species that will interact in unpredicted ways
Species that are not able to migrate or compete with other species for resources may face
local or global extinction. Furthermore, changes in precipitation and sea-level rise will have
important consequences for water balance of coastal ecosystem. Increase or decrease in
precipitation and runoff may respectively increase the risk of coastal flooding or drought. Climate
change is also likely to alter patterns of wind and water circulation in the ocean environment. Such
changes may influence the vertical movement of ocean waters, increasing or decreasing the
availability of essential nutrients and oxygen to marine organism (Kennedy, 2002)
 Lastly, climate change along its devastating effects in our environment could consequently
affect human health. Changes in climate affects the average weather conditions that we are
accustomed to. Warmer average temperature will likely lead to hotter day and more frequent and
longer heat waves. This could increase the number of heat-related sickness and deaths. Increase in
the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as storm could increase the risk of
dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Warmer
temperature could increase the concentration of unhealthy air and water pollutants. Changes in
temperatures, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some disease
The impact of climate change on health will defend on many factors. These factors include
the effectiveness of the community’s public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the
risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely
vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change
impacts, and society’s ability to adapt to change (Global Warming Effect on Health, 2011)
EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN PHILIPPINES
The Philippines location and geography makes it highly vulnerable to the effects of el nino
and la Nina even though it is a minor emitter of global greenhouse gases, according to Rincon and
Virtucio (2008, as cited in Vista, 2014). Climate change is a serious threat to country’s economy
especially to agriculture. As stated by vista (2014), rainfall and temperature viability are the two
main contributing factors affecting agricultural production in the country
Moreover, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ICPP), 2007, p. 475, as cited in
vista, A., 2014) reported that since 1971, average temperature in the Philippines has increased by
0.14 degree Celsius per decade which lead to increased annual mean rainfall since the 1980s. In
addition, increased number of rainy days since 1990s and increased in inter-annual variability of
onset of rainfall were observed. This situation is most likely to continue, the Philippine Initial
National Communication in Climate Chance (PINCCC) (Republic of the Philippines, 1990) have
projected a temperature increase of 2-30Cin annual temperatures.
These are various estimates of climate change effects resulting in yield production of
selected Philippine agriculture crops and production losses due to damage form onslaught of
climate-induced events, such as typhoons, floods, drought\EL Nino, La Nina, and pests and
diseases. According to IPCC (as cited in Vista, 2014) the following are the results in increasing
temperature due to climate change:
(1) decreased crop yield due to heat stress;
(2) increased in livestock death due to heat issues; and
(3) increased in outbreak of insect pests and diseases.
Furthermore, the variability in rainfall which includes El Nino Southern Oscillations results
in:
(1) increased frequency of drought, floods, and tropical cyclones (associated with strong
winds), causing damage to crops,
 (2) changes in rainfall patters affecting current cropping pattern, crop growing seasons, and
sowing period; and
(3) increased runoff and soil erosion resulting in declining soil fertility and crop yields
In addition, according to Hilario (2008, as cited in Lasco, et. al.,2008) from 1951 to 2006,
record of the National Weather bureau (PAGASA) show that the warming has occurred in the
country. One of the indicators that the climate change is occurring, rising sea levels, is also
observed in five major stations (Manila, Legazpi, Cebu, Davao, Jolo). Annual mean sea level is
observed to increase in Manila since 1960s; for the rest of the stations, sea level rise occurs in
1970s. Moreover, in the Manila, Legazpi and Davao stations, from 1980-1989, an increase of
almost 15 cm is observed
A study conducted by Jose and Cruz (1999) showed that the unexpected climate changes
which could affect rainfall distribution will ultimately affect runoff to rivers and lakes. The
expected rise in temperature in the future may not be a significant factor in runoff variability based
on runoff stimulation result. But there is a need for further study in these aspect. The resulting
local warming resulting with a corresponding decrease in runoff could have adverse consequences
on the water demand side which could be aggravated by the increasing population. This could
translate into more demand for water and degradation of the physical environment that could
possibly affect, to a certain extent, the hydrology of the area

Figure 3.2. Effects of Climate Change

SOLUTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE

One key to climate change is reducing the use of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are fuels formed
by natural process such as anaerobic decomposition of buried dead organisms. The European
Renewable Energy Council (n.d) challenges that we should shift away from using of these fossil
fuels in the home, industry, at work and in the way we travel. Thus, we should make us of
renewable energy. Renewable energy introduces safe, reliable, and increasingly cost-effective
substitute for all our energy needs; predominantly heating, cooling, electricity and motive power
for transport. It can supply everything that fossil fuels currently offers in terms of energy services
that will dramatically reduce Climate Change Gas Emissions.
Another proposed solution by Ferrel et. al. (1999), is the use of biofuels; fuels derived from
biological materials, such as plants and animals. For example, when we use bioethanol instead of
gasoline, we help reduce atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in three ways: (1) we avoid the emissions
associated with gasoline; (2) we allow the CO2 content of the fossil fuels to remain in storage; and
(3) we provide mechanism for CO2 absorption by growing new biomass fuels. Because of their
compatibility with the natural cycle, biofuels offer the most beneficial alternative for reducing
greenhouse gases from the transportation sector
A further study by the Environment Department of the World Bank (2009), stated that
current efforts attempts to reduce the vulnerability of communities at risk by improving
infrastructure to meet new energy and water needs. This includes the so-called Ecosystem-based
approaches that can help in the adaptation process. It consists of the following:
1. Maintaining and restoring natural ecosystems and the goods and services that they provide,
2. Protecting and enhancing services, such as water flows and water quality
3. Maintaining costal barriers and natural flood control and pollution reduction mechanisms,
4. Managing habitats that maintain nursery, feeding and breeding grounds for fisheries,
wildlife and other species on which human population depend and,
5. Providing reservoirs for wild relatives of crops and other agro biodiversity to increase
genetic diversity and resilience for crop improvements.

It was also established that there existed a significant relationship between climate change
and tropical cyclones (Knutson et. al., 2010). The group claimed that the challenge for climate
change detection and attribution research with regard to tropical cyclones is to determine whether
an observed change in tropical cyclone activity exceeds the variability expected through natural
causes. The significant results in their findings are then attributed to specific climate factors. Such
as specific climate factors such as greenhouse gases or aerosols; the group then proposed the
development of both a reliable projection of changes in the various factors influencing tropical
cyclones and a means of stimulating the effect of these climate changes on tropical cyclone metrics
to make future projections of tropical cyclone activity more accurate.
The global warming is expected to occur due to increased carbon dioxide concentration in
the atmosphere (Jose & Cruz, 1999). With this increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it is
predicted that by the next century, global surface temperatures will increase by at least 2°C;
significant changes in the Earth’s climatic system, particularly an alteration of rainfall and
temperature in both time and space, is expected. Current warming has increasingly posed quite
considerable challenges to man and the environment, and will continue to do so in the future
(DILG, 2011). Although certain autonomous adaptation is taking place, the government needs to
consider a more pro-active adaptation planning in order to ensure sustainable development. During
the past few decades, extreme climatic events have adversely affected the Philippine economy and
is continuing until the recent years.

HAZARD VS. DISASTER

Earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and volcano eruptions are all types of natural hazards, but
when do they become natural disasters? The difference is the events’ effects on people. When a
typhoon strikes a populated island in the Philippines, destroying homes and lives, it becomes a
disaster. People living in poverty are even more vulnerable to natural disasters because they have
fewer resources or people to turn to when trying to rebuild their homes and livelihoods.
Effects of Disasters
Disasters take a heavy toll on human population and its effects are indeed felt by everyone
from all walks of life. The following are some of the most frequent notable effects of disasters.
1. Displaced Population
One of the most immediate effects of natural disasters is population displacement. When
countries are ravaged by earthquakes or other powerful forces of nature, many people have
abandon their homes and seek shelter in other regions. A large influx of refugees can
disrupt accessibility of health care and education, as well as food supplies and clean water.
2. Health Risks
Aside from the obvious immediate danger that natural disasters present, the secondary
effects can be just as damaging. Severe flooding can result in stagnant water and allows
breeding of waterborne bacteria and malaria-carrying mosquitoes. Without emergency
relief from international aid organizations and others, death tolls can rise even after the
immediate danger has passed.
3. Food Scarcity
After natural disasters, food often becomes scarce. Thousands of people around the world
go hungry as a result of destroyed crops and loss of agricultural supplies, whether it
happens suddenly in a storm or gradually in a drought. As a result, food prices rise,
reducing families’ purchasing power and increasing the risk of severe malnutrition or
worse. The impacts of hunger following an earthquake, typhoon or hurricane can be
tremendous, causing lifelong damage to children’s development.
4. Emotional Aftershocks
Natural disasters can be particularly traumatic for young children. Confronted with scenes
of destruction and the deaths of friends and loved ones, many children develop post-
traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a serious psychological condition resulting from extreme
trauma. Left untreated, children suffering from PTSD can be prone to lasting psychological
damage and emotional distress.

Human Factors and the Severity of Natural Disasters

There are several human factors that influence the severity of a natural disaster. Even
within the same region, different people have different levels of vulnerability to natural hazards.
 Wealth
People living in poverty cannot afford adequate housing or infrastructure. They are unable
to acquire resources needed before and after a disaster strikes.
 Education
Education increases awareness about avoiding or reducing the impact of disasters. A better-
educated population will have more professionals trained to prepare for catastrophic natural
events.
 Governance
Government can set policies and establish infrastructure to reduce vulnerability to hazards.
Some governments have more resources available to dedicate to disaster risk reduction.
 Technology
Technology allows us to forecast weather, significantly reducing vulnerability.
 Age
Children and the elderly are more vulnerable because they have less physical strength and
weaker immune systems Children and elderly are more dependent on others for survival
but may not have anyone to depend upon after disaster strikes