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Fortnite Probability Royale

Introduction:

People play games all of the time, and many of them do not realize that they are

using probabilities and expected values. With a knowledge of probabilities you will

notice many different things throughout the world, such as sports statistics, and game

odds and chances. Some people even use probabilities in casinos and other games to

try to rig the games in order to give them an upper hand. This paper will analyze a

simple game to show how probabilities are used, and how probabilities can be used to

estimate results, as well as find a game’s fairness, all in the player’s view.

The theme of the game was based on the game Fortnite that is played by many

people, there are golden chests filled with loot throughout the game that can help the

player to achieve “Victory Royale”. Based upon this concept, we used golden chests on

the coins, because without the chests you can not win the game, and you can be

eliminated even with the chests. For these reasons the cards are labeled “Eliminated”

and “Victory Royale”.

Rules:
● The game costs $5 to play.

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● In order to win the game the player needs to flip 3 coins, and have 2 or more
coins land with the chest side facing up, and lastly pick the “Victory Royale” card
correctly.
● If the player correctly lands 2 of the 3 coins with the chest side facing upward,
then the player picks from a stack of 4 cards, 3 “Eliminated” cards and 1 “Victory
Royale” card, these cards are shuffled, placed randomly, and the player picks 1
card.
● If the player correctly lands all 3 of the coins with the chest side facing upward,
then they pick from the stack of 3 cards, 2 “Eliminated” cards and 1 “Victory
Royale” card, these cards are shuffled, placed randomly, and the player picks 1
card.
● If the player doesn’t get at least 2 coins to land chest-side-up, then the player
loses, and doesn’t move on to the cards.
● If the player does not pick the “Eliminated” card out of either the stack of 3 cards
or the stack of 4 cards then they lose.
● If the player picks the “Victory Royale” card they win $30.

Description:

Before the player plays the game they must pay $5 as a starting fee.

To set up the game place the 3 coins, with the chest (winner) on one side and red ‘X’
(loser) on the other, in the left section of the game.

Note: If all 3 coins land on the chest side skip to the third section of directions

● Once the game is set up the player must flip the 3 coins consecutively, if 2 coins
land on the chest side then they move on to the right section of the game and
take the 4 cards out of the labeled slot and lay them down. They then pick one of
the 4 cards, and if the card is a “Victory Royale” they win $30.

● If the player lands all 3 coins on the chest side then they move to the right side
and take the 3 cards out of the slot and lay them out. Then they pick 1 card out of
the 3, and if it is a “Victory Royale” they win $30.

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Directions:
1. First, pay $5 to play the game.
2. Then, place the 3 coins in the left section of the game.
3. Next consecutively flip the 3 coins, if 2 or more coins land with the chest side
facing up then move on to the right section.
4. If 2 of the coins land chest facing up take the 4 cards from the labeled slot and
lay them facing down on the right side of the game.

Note: if all 3 coins land with the chest side facing up move to the right section and take
the 3 cards out of the labeled slot and lay them facing down.

5. Now that the cards are placed words down pick 1 card and flip it over, if this card
says Victory Royale then you win $30.

Theoretical Probability I:
Victory
Elimi
C Elimi
Royale
1
nate /2
nate
C 1 he d
Victory
Elimi 3
/
d
Elimi 1
he / st Royale
nate
Elimi 3
C
1 1 21 X nate 34
/
/he / st / C d
nate
Victory
Elimi
d
Elimi /1
2 2 2
he d
Royale
nate
Elimi
st 1
X
1 nate
Elimi
4/
34
/ / st d
nate
1
2 X d
nate /
2
/ d
Automatic
C Victory
Elimi
d
loss 4
2 Elimi
Royale
1
C he nate
Elimi /
1 nate 34
d
nate
Elimi
he / st d /
1 1
st
21 X d
nate
Automatic
4
/
X / / C Elimi
d
loss
2 2 2
1 he nate
Automatic
1 X E
d limi
loss
/ / st
2 1
2
/
X nate
Automatic
d
loss
Figure 1. Tree Diagram
2

Figure 1 shows the tree diagram for our game. This tree diagram shows all of the

possible outcomes when playing the game, and the individual probabilities of each

singular component occurring.

Sample space (C = chest (win) “X”= L (loss) c= card & c1 = win):

CCCc1, CCCc2, CCCc3, CCXc1, CCXc2, CCXc3, CCXc4, CXCc1, CXCc2, CXCc3,
CXCc4, XCCc1, XCCc2, XCCc3, XCCc4, CXX, XCX, XXC, XXX

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Figure 2. Sample Space

Figure 2 shows all of the possible outcomes written out. The C stands for a chest

isde of the coin which is a win, the X stands for a loss, a c# stands for the card that was

choses, and the card c1 is the winning card.

1 1
∗1 ∗1
2 2
∗1 ∗1
2 2
∗1 ∗1
2 2
P(winning)=( )+3 ( )=0.1354
3 4
P(losing)=1−P(winning)=0.8646

Figure 3. Theoretical Probabilities

Figure 3 shows the theoretical probabilities that were found for winning and

losing. The probability for winning was found by adding the possible winning

probabilities together, and because losing is the inverse of winning and all probabilities

have to equal 1 the probability of losing was found by subtracting the probability of

winning from 1.

Theoretical Probability II:

Table 1.
Probability Distribution Chart
3 Coin wins and 3 coin wins and 2 coin wins and 2 coin wins and ≤ 1 coin win
a winning card a losing card a winning card a loosing card (loss)
0.04167 0.08333 0.09375 0.28125 0.5
In table 1 above, it shows the probability of getting every possible outcome in the

game. With the highest probability of getting 1 or less coin as a win which is a loss

automatically, and the lowest probability of getting all three coin to land as a win and

choosing the right card.

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gained
P(winning)∗(amount gained if win)+ P (losing)∗(amount lost if loss)=amount trials
many

0.1354∗($ 25)+( 0.8646)∗(−$ 5)=− $ 0.938

Figure 4. Expected Value
Figure 4 shows how the expected value was found for our game. This was found

using the the theoretical probabilities found in Figure 3 above. This expected value was

found by multiplying the probability of winning and the amount of money earned by the

player if they win, and then adding that to the probability of losing multiplied with the

amount of money the player loses if they lose the game. The expected value for our

game was found to be -$0.938, this is good for the charity because that means the

game is unfair in the charity’s favor.

Relative Frequencies/ Experimental Probabilities:

1) 50 trials:
Table 2.
Results of the 50 Trials
Trial # Coin Result Card Result Win or Lose

1 CCX L L

2 CCX L L

3 CXX N/A L

Trial # Coin Result Card Result Win or Lose

4 CCX L L

5 CXX N/A L

6 CXX N/A L

7 CCX L L

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8 CXX N/A L

9 CXX N/A L

10 CXX N/A L

11 CCX W W

12 CCX W W

13 CCX W W

14 CXX N/A L

15 CCC W W

16 CXX N/A L

17 CXX N/A L

18 XXX N/A L

19 XXX N/A L

20 CCX L L

21 XXX N/A L

22 CCC W W

23 CCC W W

24 CXX N/A L

25 CCX L L

26 CCX L L

27 CCX L L

Trial # Coin Result Card Result Win or Lose

28 CCX W W

29 XXX N/A L

30 CCC W W

31 CCX L L

32 CCX L L

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33 CCX L L

34 CXX N/A L

35 CCX W W

36 CCX W W

37 CCX W W

38 CXX N/A L

39 CCC W W

40 CCX L L

41 CXX N/A L

42 CXX N/A L

43 CCX L L

44 CXX N/A L

45 CCX L L

46 CCX L L

47 XXX N/A L

48 CCC W W

49 CCX W W

50 CXX N/A L
In the table above, it shows the results for the coin flips and if the right card was

chosen. It also shows if the trial was a success for the player or not, and a win only

happened 14 times.

14
P(winning)= =0.28
50
36
P(losing)= =0.72
50
Expected value=0.28($ 25)+(0.72)(−$ 5)=$ 3.40

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Figure 5. Experimental Probabilities and Expected Value for 50 Trials

Figure 5 shows the experimental probabilities that were found by playing the

game 50 times. The data was collected and shown in Table 2 above. The experimental

probability for winning was found by dividing the number of wins by the total number of

trials and the probability of losing was found by dividing the number of losses by the

total number of trials. The expected value was found by multiplying the experimental

winning probability and the amount of money the player could earn and adding that to

the experimental probability of losing multiplied by the amount of money lost if the

player loses.

2) Simulation for 500 trials

500 randomly generated numbers between 0 and 1, to represent three coin tosses,

were recorded for each coin with either a 0, for ‘X’, or a 1, for a chest. Then 500

randomized numbers between 1 and 4 were generated to represent the cards if 2 1s,

chests, were flipped on the coins, or 500 randomized numbers between 1 and 3 were

generated if 3 is, chests, were flipped on the coins. If the generated card number was a

1 it is a “Victory Royale” and the player wins $25, if it was any other number it was an

“Elimination”.

61
P(winning)= =0.122
500
439
P(losing)= =0.878
500
Expected value=0.122($ 25)+(0.878)(−$ 5)=− $ 1.34
Figure 6. Experimental Probabilities and Expected Value for 50 Trials
Figure 6 shows the experimental probabilities that were found by simulating the

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game for 500 trials. The data was found by performing the simulation described above.

The experimental probability for winning was found by dividing the number of wins by

the total number of trials and the probability of losing was found by dividing the number

of losses by the total number of trials. The expected value was found by multiplying the

experimental winning probability and the amount of money the player could earn and

adding that to the experimental probability of losing multiplied by the amount of money

lost if the player loses.

3) Java Program

Figure 7. Java Program Results

This figure shows the results obtained from running 5,000 trials in a java

program. On average the player has roughly a 14% chance of winning, and a 86%

chance of losing. If someone were to play 5,000 times in the end they can expect to

lose about $0.92. To view the program reference Appendix A.

4) Compare/Contrast Simulations

The three simulations have some similarities and differences. One similarity is

that on the 500 trial simulation the probability of winning was 12.2% and the 5000 trial

java program had the winning percentage at 13.6% which only have a 1.4% difference.

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A difference is the 50 trial playing of the game had nearly over double the other two

simulations with a 28% chance of winning, but this could be caused by the fact that the

winning card when we were doing our trials had a slight height advantage over the other

three cards. It may seem like a major problem, but it really wasn’t because it was

extremely hard to tell which one was the tallest and the conductors of the experiment

tried to judge which was the right one before the trials were conducted and were mostly

unsuccessful in choosing the winning card based off of the height. Also if it did play a

major role, and it was noticeable, then the winning percentage would be higher. A

difference that occurs with all three of the simulations is the expected value for the

player. In the 50 trials, the player is expected to make $3.40, which is bad for the game

operator because on average $3.40 would be lost every time someone played the

game. The other two expected values were on the operators side but had a $0.42

difference from the 500 trials to the 5000 trials with the 500 trials having the player on

average lose $1.34 and the 5000 trials having the player lose $0.92.

Summary:

Our game, Fortnite Probability Royale, is a simple, but fun to play carnival game.

It has an attractive theme of a very popular game that is being played across the world

by millions of people everyday, Fortnite. It starts with the user flipping 3 Fortnite themed

coins, then moving on to more Fortnite themed cards. The game follows the idea of the

game’s mechanics to win the actual game, such as needing to find and open chests, as

well as work your way to a “Victory Royale”.

Our game is also good for the charity, it gives the illusion that the user has a

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good chance of winning, since it is possible to lower the amount of cards they select

from by landing all 3 coins on the chest side. Players may also want to play the game,

because they have a chance of multiply their investment six times over. The game only

costs $5 to play, and are able to receive $30 if they win the game. Although in actuality

the game is unfair in the charity’s favor. A simulation of 500 trials it was found that the

charity would earn $1.34 per person that plays the game. This was found by finding the

expected value of the simulation. The players’ probability of winning is only 28% in an

experiment of 50 trials, 12% in a simulation of 500 trials, and 14% in a simulation of

5,000 trials using Java. These experimental probabilities can be off by a little, but they

are all relatively low except for the slight outlier, the 50 trial experiment, and is due to

having such a low amount of trials.

The work in the group was spread evenly throughout the whole project. Certain

people did certain things simply because they were better at it than the other members,

but everyone communicated and helped each other out when needed. The paper was a

combined group effort with everyone writing anchors, helping with tables, formatting,

and the math. The Java program and the simulations were done mostly by Danny since

he was the best at Java programming in the group, and he had the best idea for the 500

simulations. Rogan and Ian did most of the typing, formatting, and revisioning of all of

the work. Everyone in the group helped on the math, and we split the work evenly

amongst the three of us. The actual game board was made by Ian because he had the

most access to tools, foam board, and spray paint. The idea for the theme of the project

was created by a group brainstorm of topics we all enjoyed.

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Appendix A:
Java Program

/* I. Calandrino, R. Carter, and D. Hurley 3/12/2018

This program is used to simulate a 5000 trial run of a two-step game involving coins
and cards */
import TerminalIO.KeyboardReader; // code to read characters from the keyboard
import java.text.DecimalFormat; //code to format numbers
import java.util.Random;

class CarniSimulat { // this is the name of the program.

public static void main(String args[]){ // this line has to be in all prgs below the class
name

KeyboardReader reader = new KeyboardReader(); //created an object called reader

DecimalFormat twoDecimal = new DecimalFormat("0.00"); //created an object called
twoDecimal

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Random rand = new Random(); //randomization syntax

int c1,c2,c3,ct,card = 0, i = 0; //initialized variables

double EV,w=0,l=0,x,y;

while (i<5000){ //repeated 5000 times

i++;
c1 = rand.nextInt(2); //randomization
c2 = rand.nextInt(2);
c3 = rand.nextInt(2);

ct = c1+c2+c3;

if(ct == 2){ //2 coin winner

card = 1+rand.nextInt(4); //randomization of card
if(card==1){ //winning card
w++;
}
else if(card!=1){ //losing card
l++;
}
}
else if(ct == 3){ //3 coin winner
card = 1+rand.nextInt(3);
if(card==1){ //winning card
w++;
}
else if(card!=1){ //losing card
l++;
}
}
else if(ct<=1){ //>=1 coin winner (loss)
l++;
}

EV = (w/5000)*25+(l/5000)*(-5); //expected value

calculation
System.out.println("amount of times lost: " +l + " amount of times won: " +w);
x = w/5000*100; //percentage calculations

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y = l/5000*100;
System.out.println("win percentage: " +twoDecimal.format(x)+ "% \t loss
percentage: " +twoDecimal.format(y)+ "%");
if(EV >=0){
System.out.println("The expected value is: $" + twoDecimal.format(EV));
}
else if (EV < 0){
EV =EV*-1;
System.out.println("The expected value is: -$" + twoDecimal.format(EV));
}

}
}

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