Statistics Chapter 17: Review A – KEY

1. Match each term with the description

i. Alternative ii A. The value that is claimed to have not changed or to

Hypothesis not be different in the null hypothesis.
ii. p i B. What we should conclude if the data are out of line
with our original assumption about the parameter.
iii. p̂ vii C. We don’t reject the null hypothesis when in fact it
was false.
iv. Fail to reject Ho vi D. We reject the null hypothesis when in fact it was
true.
v. Conclusion iv E. What we should do if it’s reasonable to believe that
our observed data could have occurred by chance.
vi. Type I error v F. We accept or reject the null hypothesis and state this
in the context of the problem.
vii. Type II error iii G. We look to see how likely it would be to observe
this statistic if the null hypothesis is actually true.

2. Put the following steps of a hypothesis test in order.

We proceed with our test, drawing the hypothesized model and finding the z value
4
for the data.
We form an alternative hypothesis that is either one- or two-tailed based on what we
2
want to learn.
We form a null hypothesis specifying the parameter of a model we’ll test using our
1
data.
If the data are far out of line with the null hypothesis model, we will reject the null
5 hypothesis and if the data are consistent with the null hypothesis model, we will not
reject the null hypothesis.
3 We check the appropriate assumptions and conditions.

6 We state our conclusion in the context of the original question.

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3. Below is a sample solution to a problem involving a hypothesis test. Identify and fix all the
errors or missing information.
According to national studies, 30% of young adult Americans (ages 18 to 30) report
attending a religious service at least once a week. A group of local clergy believes the
percentage is higher in their area so they employ a polling organization. They find that 48
out of 132 randomly sampled young adults report attending religious services at least once
a week. Is this convincing evidence that the proportion is higher in this town?
Solution: I want to know whether the proportion of young adults in this area who attend

religious services at least once a week is higher than 30%. The variable is whether or not a

person attends services. The parameter of interest is the proportion of young adults in the area

who attend religious services at least once a week.

Ho: p ≠ 0.30 Ha: p > 0.30 CORRECTION: Ho: p = 0.30 Ha: p > 0.30

• Independence Condition: I assume the religious attendance of the young adults

surveyed are independent of one another. It’s possible a few of those selected may be

friends or family who influence each other, but independence is still roughly true.

• Randomization Condition: The polling organization selected their sample.

• 10% condition: I assume the 132 in this sample are less than 10% of the population of

all the 18-24 year olds in this area.

• Success/Failure condition: In the sample, there are 48 people who attend religious
CORRECTION: Should check
services and 84 who do not. Both are greater than 10. np=39.6 and nq=92.4.

Because the conditions are satisfied I’ll use a Normal model for the sampling distribution

of the proportion and do a one-proportion z-test.

The null model is a Normal distribution with a mean of 48/132 = 0.364 and a standard

CORRECTION: The mean should be 0.3.

(0.3)(1 − 0.3)
deviation of SD( pˆ ) = = 0.0399.
132

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 0.364 − 0.3
z= = 1.60 The sample proportion is 1.6 standard deviations above the mean.
0.0399

If the true proportion of young adults attending weekly religious services was 0.3, then an

observed value of 48/132 is not more than 2 standard deviations above the mean.

I reject Ho, I have evidence that the true proportion of young adults in this area who attend

weekly religious services is larger than the national 30%.

CORRECTION: Since z is less than 2, I fail to reject Ho. There is no evidence that the true
proportion of young adults in this area who attend weekly religious services is different than the
national 30%.

4. A medical study claims the results of testing the effectiveness on a new medication are
statistically significant. What does this mean?

The observed gain in effectiveness is too large to be attributed just to variability or random chance.

5. Describe in context the Type I and Type II errors that are possible in question 4
Type I: I conclude the new medication is more effective when actually it is not.

Type II: I conclude the new medication is not more effective when actually it is more effective.

6. The government of Monroe County, New York, reports to a local newspaper an overall
conviction rate for DWI cases of 73 percent, one of the highest in New York. A reporter
suspects the rate is lower and obtains a random sample of 211 DWI cases of which 140 ended
in convictions. He performs a hypothesis test and rejects his null hypothesis. Circle the true
statements.
a. It was found that the probability of obtaining a statistic as least this extreme is very small,
assuming there has been no change in the DWI conviction rate.
b. There is statistically significant evidence that the conviction rate is 73%.
c. The true conviction rate is actually lower than 73%
d. This is strong evidence that the true conviction rate is less than 73%
e. The sample statistic is likely to occur due to sampling variation.
f. No samples of 211 DWI cases will have 140 convictions.
140
g. p = 0.73 and pˆ = .
211

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7. A study by the Association of Pet Obesity Prevention in 2012 shows that 53 percent of dogs
are overweight. They suspect that dogs whose owners exercise regularly tend to have healthier
dogs so they take a random sample of dog owners who workout for at least 60 minutes per
week ask them about their dogs. They find that 136 out of 291 of the dogs owned by these
people are overweight. Is this evidence that the rate of overweight dogs really is lower for
those who work out at least 60 minutes per week? Show all work for a full hypothesis test
below.

Null hypothesis: 53% of dogs belonging to owners who exercise regularly are
Think

overweight.
Alternative hypothesis: Less than 53% of dogs belonging to owners who
Hypothesis
exercise regularly are overweight.
In symbols: H 0 : p = 0.53, H A : p < 0.53 .

Independence Assumption: It is reasonable to think that dogs’ weight is

mutually independent of each other provided the dogs have different owners.
Random Sampling Condition: The dogs were chosen randomly.
10% Condition: 291 dogs is certainly less than 10% of all dogs.
Model
Success/Failure Condition: np  154.23 and nq  136.77 , which are both at
least 10, so the sample is large enough.
The conditions are satisfied, so I can use the Normal model to perform a one
Show

proportion z-test.

n = 291 , x = 136 ,
pˆ = 136
291
≈ 0.4674

pˆ − p
z=
pq
Mechanics n
0.4674 − 0.53
z=
(0.53)(0.47)
P = P( pˆ < 0.4605)
291
= P( z < −2.14)
z = −2.14
= 0.016

The P-value is quite low (or z < -2), so we reject the null hypothesis. There is
Tell

Conclusion evidence to suggest that less than 53% of dogs whose owners exercise regularly
are overweight.

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8. A large insurance company claims that 80 percent of their customers are very satisfied with the
service they receive. To test this claim, a consumer watchdog group surveyed 100 customers,
using simple random sampling. Among the sampled customers, 73 say they are very satisfied.
Based on these findings, can we reject the company’s claim that 80% of the customers are very
satisfied? Show all work for a full hypothesis test below.
Hypotheses.
The null hypothesis is that 80% of the insurance company’s customers are very satisfied. The alternative
hypothesis is that less than 80% of the customers are very satisfied with the service. In symbols:

H 0 : p = 0.8, H A : p < 0.8

Model.
Independence Assumption: It is reasonable to think that customers are mutually independent.
Random Sampling Condition: The customers were chosen randomly.
10% Condition: 100 customers is almost certainly less than 10% of all of this company’s customers.
Success/Failure Condition: np  80 and nq  20 , which are both at least 10, so the sample is large enough.

The conditions are satisfied, so I can use the Normal model to perform a one proportion z-test.
Mechanics.
n = 100 , x = 73 , pˆ = 100
73
= 0.73

pˆ − p
z=
pq
n
P = P ( pˆ < 0.73)
0.73 − 0.8
z= = P ( z < −1.75)
(0.8)(0.2)
= 0.04
100
z = −1.75
Conclusion.
The P-value is quite low, so reject the null hypothesis. There is evidence to suggest that the proportion of
satisfied customers at this insurance company is lower than the company’s claimed 80%.
Alternatively if using the Rule of 2, there is not enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the
proportion of satisfied customers at this insurance company is lower than the company’s claimed 80%.

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