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553
554 Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
your $10,000 initial equity investment over the period of rime involved. The
effect of 507o borrowed money or leverage has enabled us to double the
profit we would receive per equity dollar invested. At this point it is appro-
priate and relevant to state a basic law of economics which is:.,,There ain,t
no free lunch." You are not getting something for nothing with borrowed
money. Leverage can work against you in exactly the same manner that it
works for you. To illustrate this, consider that the shares of xyz stock drop
in price to $5 per share from their initial $10 per share. If we paid cash for
1,000 shares, this is a $5,000 loss or a-5ovo return on our $10,000 equity
investment. If we had used $10,000 borrowed money together with our
$10,000 equity, we would have lost $5 per share on 2,000 shares or
$10,000. This means we would have lost alr of our equity because the
$10,000 income from selling 2,000 shares at $5 per share would be needed
in its entirety to repay the $10,000 borrowed money and we would have a _
1007o return on our equity investment. Note that leverage can and will rvork
against us as well as for us in different situations.
we now want to demonstrate the handling of borrowed money in
DCFROR and NPV analysis of various types of projects. As with the xyZ
stock illustration just discussed, including leverage in analyses means we
are calculating the rate of return or NPV based on our equity investment in a
project rather than on the total investment value. A1l of the examples and
problems presented in the text to this point have been for cash investment
situations. There are three basic dffirences between the analysis of cash
i nv e s t nte nt a Lt e rnat iv e s and inv e s tment alt e rnat iv
e s inv o lv in g b o rrow e d
"
The $900 loan is repaid with a single ),ear three payment (often called
a balloon payment). This approach is seldom used with personal or
itmmercial loans but is the basis for U.S. "E" Bond and U.S. Treasury
Zero Coupon Bond (deep discount bond) navments:
i.oan = $900
Balloon Payment
3 - $900tF/P1g7,3)
= $1,198
The year three repayment of the loan principal is $900 while the
acerued interest equals $298.
The $900 loan is repaid with annual pavments of the interest due but
no annual loan principal payments, so loan principal is paid in the full
anount at year three. This is analogous to conventional U.S. Treasurv
Bond and Corporate Bond payments.
Loan = $900 Principal = $0 $0 $900
@ 107, Int.."rt Int".".t 0
3. The $900 loan is repaid with annual payments inclr.rding the interest
ciue plus uniform equal loan principal pa),ments each vear that leave
loan principal orved at the end of year three equal to zero. This loiin
rlr()rtgage payn)ent approach tnakes it very easy to determine loan
Crincipal and interest paiti each ycar.
Lcan = $;900 Pnncipal = $300 $300 $300
@ l07c Interest Interest = $90 $60 $30
4. The $900 loan is repaid with uniform equal annual mortgage pay-
ments {900(A/P17V"J) = $361.90 / year}. This is one of the most
c:onlnlon types of mortgage payments for both personal and corporate
loans.
A
556 Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
These four approaches to amortizing a three year $900 loan have been
related to a fixed annual interest rate of LTvo per year that did not vary
over
the loan life. variable interest roans (or aa3uitaute rate mortgages or
ARM's) have the loan interest adjusted periodically, such as every six
months, by keying the loan interest rate on either three month, six month
or
twelve month rreasury Bills, three year Treasury Bond rates, or some other
index of interest rates plus some fixed percentage or other measure to calcu-
late the loan interest rate. Any one of the four approaches presented here
along with flat or add-on interest rate loans can be idapted tovariable inter-
est rate Ioan situations.
In Example 11-1 you will see how leveraging a project with borrowed
money makes project economics look much better on a leveraged basis than
on a cash equity investment basis. However, do not compire leveraged
investntent economic resuhs with cash equity investment eionomic results.
since leverage improves prgject economic results when borrowed money
intercst is less than the boruowed money eants in the project, you must look
at all project economics with a common amount of leverage-
for economic
results to be comparable for dffirent investment projects. Most companies
make zero leverage, which is the cash equity analysis situation, the common
leverage used for all income and service-producing discounted cash flow
economic analyses.
Revenue 65 65 65 100
-Op. Costs -25 -25 -25 -25
-Depreciation -10 -20 -20 -20 -20
-Write-off -25
Taxable lncome -10 20 20 20 30
-Tax @ 40"/" 4 -8 -8 -8 -12
Net lncome -6 12 12 12 18
+Depreciation 10 20 20 20 20
+Write-off 25
-Capital Costs -115
Cash Flow -1'1i 32 32 92 63
* lncludes Salvage Value
** lncludes $15 Working Capital and g10 Depreciation
PW Eq:0 = -111 + 32(plA;,3) + 63(p/F;,4)
i = Cash lnvestment DCFROR = 14.2/o
Cirapter 11: Evaluations lnvolving Borrowed Money
at the 4clk lax rate by $4,000 each year. The net effect
of revenue
flow by $6,000 each
and tax changes will increase or decrease cash
Making the
yea. for eithei the cash investment or leverage analysis.
$eC00pery€arcashflowadjustmentisaneasywayofobtaining
results'
the sensrtivity analysis cash flows that lead to the DCFROR
Flowslll 32 32 32 63 i4.2%
Base Case Cash
0 3
38 38 38 69 21.4%
$1C,00C Revenue -111
lncrease Per Year 0
26 26 26 57 7.2%
$1C.C00 Revenue -111
De,.:rsaseFerYear 0 1 2 3 4
Decrease PerYear 0
' The changes in leveraged investment DCFROR due to increasing
to -
or decreasing revenue Oy $f 0,000 each year amo-unt to +88"/"
77"h change! from the base case 53.77" DCFROR. The physical
to
range of iariation in leveraged DCFROR results from 101%
12.4"/" is much greater ttran the 7.2/" lo 217" variation
in CaSh
in revenue'
investment results caused by the same t$10,000 change
versus.cash investment
This greater range of variation in leveraged
that some people
results relates to the greater risk and uncertainty
562 Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
Based on the cash equity inr,estment analysis results from Example 11-l'
a 5U-50 joint venture would give a 14.2% DCFROR to each venture partrler
uii-'rc each partner incurs haif of all costs and tar effects and receives half
of all revenues and tax effects. Even if the developer has the n'.oney for
lilrJ% cquitl deveioprnent, a 5t)-50 joirlt Venture tor any other jornt venture
sltiit) has thc potential advarttage of spreading investment risk o'.er several
priiiects instead of having a higger investment in cne project.
-v
Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
$
A) Your equity investment in the land
B) Paying cash for the land
c) Land selling price is $14,000 instead of $16,000
565
Cl,,rpter 11 : Fvairiations Invoiving BOrrowed Money
After-Tax Diagram
Cash Flow = _911 000 $14,500
0
PW Eq: 0 = -$11,000 + $14,500(P/F;,3)
i = Cash lnvestment DCFROR =9.6/"
566 Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
For the leveraged case yearly interest and principal costs are the *r
same, while the new after-tax salvage is 914,000-$9,000(.g0) tax or T
$13,100.
Leveraged lnvestment tl
PW Eq: 0 = -1 ,000 - 2,700(PlFi,1) - 2,560(P lFi,2) + 6,680(p/F;,3)
The new leveraged investment DCFROR is 3.2"/"
Percent variation from base case result (1s.3 - g.z)115.3 x 1 0o =76"/"
Cash lnvestment
PW Eq: 0 = -$'t1 ,000 + 913,100(P/F;,3)
The new cash investment DCFROR is 6.0%
Percent variation from base case result (9.6 - 6.0)/9.6 x 100 = 37"/o
D) Break-even Analysis
To achieve a 25o/o leveraged DCFROR on equity invested dollars,
iet "X" equal the break-even required after-iax cash flow.
FVr Eq: 0 = -1,000 - 2,200(PlFi,1 ) - 2,560(plFi,2) + X(plF1.3)
Sclving for "X" gives X = $g,372 for i* = 2't%. What before-tax sale
value will give this cash flow? Let "y" equal the break-even before-
rax gale value.
'/ - (Y-11 ,000X.30 tax rate) -
$6,420 principal and interest = $9,372
:
i
Solving for Y: Y = (9,372 - 0,300 + 6,420)/0.70 = $.11,g45
!
i lf ycu sell for $17,845:
Y',ear 3 income lax = ($1 7,945-11 ,000x.30)
= $2,053
Yenr 3 after-tax interest and loan principal = $6,420
\\/e lra'e seen in Exanrples ll-l and 11-2that both the meaning of eco-
nonric analysis results and the risk and uncertainty associated with lever-
aged and cash investment project economic analysis results are very differ-
ent. This brings up the question concerning, "how should leveraged
investments be evaluated for investment decision making purposes?,, To
reach a conclusion concerning the best answer to that question, consider the
fbllor,ving comments:
I)
whenever possible ahvays compare evaluation alternatives rvith the
same or similar ieverage, including the project alternatives that determine
the rrinimum RoR. As wiil be shown in section 11.4 your minimum RoR
rvill be higher for leveraged project evaluations than for cash investment
evaluations. Since the risks and uncertainties and meaning of economic
results with different amounts of leverage are not the same, it is not reason-
able for investment decision-making purposes to compare project analysis
results based on different amounts of leverage.
568 Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
2) Since more and more leverage gives higher and higher DCFROR
results, the use of leveraged economic analysis results for decision making
purposes can sometimes mislead the decision-maker into thinkinij a
marginal project is a better project than it actually is. For this reason there is
considerable merit in making zero leverage, the cash investment case as the
common basis for comparing all investment opportunities. This approach is
based on analyzing all projects from the viewpoint, "would I be willing to
invest my cash in any or all of the projects considered if I had the money?"
If the answer is yes, "which projects would be best?" The cash investment
analysis approach is used by a majority of companies. Another advantage of
this approach is that it does not require knowing the financing conditions
when the analysis is made. Since financing arrangements often are not final-
ized until just before initiation of a project, using cash investment economic
analysis eliminates the need to guess and make sensitivity analysis for dif-
ferent borrowed money assumptions. Remember, if the after-tax cost of bor-
rowed money is less than the cash investment DCFROR, leverage will work
for you and the leveraged DCFROR on your equity investment will be
greater than the cash investment DCFROR for any and all investment pro-
jects. If the cash investment economic analysis results look satisfactory, the
leveraged results will look even better if the after-tax borrowed money inter-
est rate is less than the cash investment DCFROR.
3) There are exceptions to every rule. In cases where interest free non-
recourse loans are made available by another company to be repaid out of
production product, or revenue if a project is successful, the leverage con-
siderations are not the same as we have been discussing. To illustrate this
concept, in past years some companies needing natural gas reserves have
tunded drilling companies in this manner. If the obligation to repay the loan
does not exist if the project fails, the risk and uncertainty conditions obvi-
ously are very different than when repayment of the loan must be made
whether we succeed or fail. In the non-recourse loan a.nalysis case we
would want to verify that the net present value that we could get by tying up
our equipment and men in the leveraged interest free loan project would be'
at least as great as the net present value we could generate by putting our
men and equipment on other projects being considered. Comparing
DCFROR results is of little or no value in this case because you get an infi-
nite percent DCFROR with 1007o borrowed money.
4) Different projects attract better financing than others because of relative
risks and uncertainties involved with different projects in the eyes of the
Cnapter 11: Evaluations Involving Borrcvred Money 569
lender. Cash investment analysis does not take this consideration into account.
Looking at projects on a cash investment basis is going to give you a good
and probabiy the besr basis for er.aluatins how a lender will view the eco-
nr-rmic potential and risk and uncenainty associated with projects, but it may
i-'c nccessary to niake a ieveracei anal'sis comparison to take into account
tinancing ditferences. Remember. the rrumber one concern of a lender is,
''\\'ill there be sufficient project cash flow to cover the mortgage payments
over the lit'e of the project?" usually a banker llkes to see at least a 2 to I ratio
ot'cash flow to debt mortgage payments each year, but obyiously this ratio,
which is sometimes called the "debt service ratio," vauies widely with the
risks and uncertainties that are felt ro exist with regard to project cash flow.
Under the 1986 tax retbrm law, individual and corporate taxpayers in
20c0 continue to be a;le to deduct interest on business debts incurred for
the purpose of generating inrestment or business income. However, that
same tax biil put significant restrictions on the kind of income that individu-
als can use interest deductions a-eainst and limits or eliniinates the
deductibility of certain interest by individuals. Two major Jauors in the
tax latv for non-business taxpaygrs are: (l) interest on personal loans is
non-deductible except for home ntortgage loans on principal and second
honrcs to the extent the debt does not exceed the purcha.se price plus
intprovenrcnts, which is the same restriction that applies to trade or busi-
570 Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
ness loans, (2) new limitations apply to the deduction of investment interest,
limiting this deduction to the amountof net investment income,for the year :,
Interest on personal loans such as car loans and unpaid credit card bal-
ances is not deductible. This category of non-deductible interest, referred to
as "personal interest." includes all interest other than:
Solution:
Loan Amortization Schedule:
Mortgage Payments = $380,000(A/Ptoz,t6) = $61,845
Year 1 lnterest = $380,000(.10) = $38,000
Year 1 Principal = $61,845- $38,000 = $23,845
New Loan Principal = $380,000 - $23,845 = $356,155
Year 2lnterest = $356,155(.10) = $35,615
Year 2 Principal = $61,845 - $35,615 = $26,230
Ner,v Loan Principal = $356,155 - $26,230 = $329,925
aD
572 Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
It has been emphasized throughout this text that the opportunity cost of
capital, which is the return on investment forgone if a nerv investment is
accepted, is the appropriate "minimum rate of return" or "hurdle rate', to
luse irt economic evaluations. In this section we want to exanrine the effect
of leverage (borrowed money) on opportunity cost of capital. It wilr be
shou'n that opportunity cost of capital is still the appropriate minimum rate
of retum (or discount rate) with leverage as with cash investments, but that
the opportunity cost or discount rate increases as the proportion of bor-
rowed dollars incorporated into the analysis of other opportunities
increases. This assumes that the after-tax cost of borrowed funds is less than
the cash investment DCFROR of the project or projects representing other
investment opportunities so that levt:rage enhances the economic potential
of these other investment opportunities.
To illustrate the effect of leverage on opportunity cost of capital, assume
that the best alternative use of funds, or an investment typical of other cash
investment opportunities, is represented by the initial investment of
$100,000 in non-depreciable property, such as land, that will generate rev-
enues of $70,000 per year and operating costs of $20,000 per year in each
of the following years. Assume a 40vo effective tax rate and salvage value
of $ 100,000 at year 5. Calculate cash investment DCFROR.
574 Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
')ear
Cash Investment
Cash Flow -100.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 130.00
+Loan Income 25.00
-After-Tax
Interest -1.50 -t.zs -0.98 -0.68 -0.36
-Loan Principal
Pei,ments J.10 -4.51 -4.96 -5.46 -6'00
Lever. Cash Flow -75.00 24.40 24.24 24.06 23.86 123'64
+ 23.86(PlFi.4) + t23.64(P/F1,5)
i = Leveraged Investment DCFROR = 35.5Vo
This result ts 5.5Vo higher than the 30Vo cash investment DCFROR.
Increasing the borrowed money leverage proportion increases the leveraged
DCFROR. These results demonstrate that the opportunity cost that defines
the after-tax minimum rate of return is a function of the leverage proportion
associated with the investment. Because the use of leverage will increase
the project DCFROR, the minimum rate of return or hurdle rate that the
project investment must equal or exceed for acceptance must also be
increased to reflect the increased leverage incorporated in the investment' If
the minimum DCFROR is not increased to reflect the increased leverage
proportion, almost any project can be made to look economically attractive
simply by increasing the proportion of borrowed money devoted to the pro-
ject. Also, as discussed earlier in Example 11-1, leveraged DCFROR results
have different uncertainty associated with their meaning compared to the
meaning of cash investment DCFROR results. This is because cash invest-
ment DCFROR results relate to larger unamortized investments every year
compared to the corresponding meaning of leveraged DCFROR results,
576 Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
I
577
laFier i1: Evaluations lnvolving Borrowed Money
Depreciation Schedule:
.::
-lnterest -1.00 -0.70 -0.40 .l
-Depreciation -2.00 -3.20 -1.92 -2.99. ';.
.6575
+ 3.09(P/F15,3) = 6.45
Revenue
-Op. Costs -1.75 -4.S0 -S.00 _3.75
Taxable -1.75 -4.50 _3.75
-5.00
-Tax @ 40"/o +0.70 +1.80 +2.00 +1.50
Net lncome -1.05 -2.7A -2.25
-CapitalCost
Cash Flow -1.05 -2.70 -3.00 -2.25
I
harler 11 : Evaiuations lnvolving Borrowed Moriey 581
.8696 .7561
'W Cost Lease = 1 .05 + 2.70\PlF 1s,l ) + 3.00(Fi F15,2)
.6575
+ 2.25(PlF153) =7.14
ll.7 Summary
In summarizing this chapter on leverage, the foilowing point is consid-
ered to be pertinent. Do not borrow money when you have a sufficient trea-
sury to finance investments on a l\avo equity basis unless the portion of
your treasury equal to the borrowed money amount can be put to work at a
DCFROR which is more than the after-tax cost of borrowed money.
PROBLEN{S
i
I
I
I l-2 An investor purchased land 2 years ago for $ I million and the land has
since been zoned for a commercial shopping center development. The
investor has received an offer rrf $7 ntillion cash for the land now at
I
{ year 0 and gain would be taxed as an individual long term capital gain.
I Assume the individual ordinary in:ome effective tax rzrte is -15%.
I
Keeping the property and developing it starting now at time 0 will
:
involve costs and revenues shown on the foilowirg diagram.
All values are in millions of dollars.
C Bldgs.=30 lncome/Yr.=65 70 75
C EqoiP.= 5 OPCost/Yt L=+O
0 (Now) 1
I l-3 A major petroleum company spent $3 million last year acquiring the
l
mineral rights to a property surrounded by producing oil wells. Proba-
l bitity of successful development is considered to be l00Vo. An offer of
I $5 million cash now at time 0 has been received for the property from
I another investor and gain from the sale would be taxed as ordinary
I income. It is projected that if we fully develop the property and pro-
duce it over the next 3 years that a sale value of $6.5 million for the
property and all production assets can be realized 3 years from now
I with any sale taxable gain assumed to be taxed as ordinary income. To
l develop the property the company must borrow $4 million at lZ%o
$
I
annual interest now (at time 0) to be paid off over 5 years with 5 equal
{I
T
end-of-year mortgage payments. However, if the property is sold at the
tI
il
L
Economic Evaluation and lnvestment Decision Methods
end of year 3, the remaining roan principal will be paid off then.
The
minimum DCFROR is 25vo for leveraged investments of this type.
Make a DCFROR analysis to determine wherher it is better to sell now
or develop and sell 3 years from now based on the development data
given on the following diagram.
Royalties are l5vo of revenues each year. operating costs include all
severance and excise tax. ljvo of total initial reserves are produced
in
year l,167o inyear 2 and l4vo in year 3. Assume intangible well
costs
are incurred in the first inonth of the year in which they occur. Tangi-
ble well costs are depreciated over 7 years using the Modified ACRS
rates starting in the year tangible costs are incurred with the half-year
convention. use a 40vo effective income tax rate and assume other tax-
able income exists against which to use deductions in any year.
407o. Assume the iyrine u'ill be sold at the end of year 3 for $6 million
and that any taxable gain trom the sale will be taxed as ordinary
income. Calculate the leveraged project DCFROR assuming $4 mil-
iion is borrowed at vear 0 at a 107o annual interest rate. Loan mort-
gage paymenrs rvill be uniform and equal over year I to 10. Assume
the remaining unpaid ioan principal will be paid off at the end of year
3 rvlisn the mine is sold.
I l-8 work Problem I0-10 assum ing 75vo of the $200,000 equipment
cost
will be financed atye* 0 with a ravo interest rate on borrirwed money.
The loan is to be^ paid off over 3 years with mortgage payments
of
interest plus $50,000 principar madl at each of y"ui, -1,
i and 3. The
effective annual leveraged minimum DCFROR ii ZSqo.