CE92_Emano_ Decision Parameters and Tools- Other Techniques

Water is a resource that touches and is interwoven with numerous human

activities as well as the environment we live in. Its availability and beneficial use
depend on the timing and manner of its arrival (rainfall intensity, rain or snow,
duration, frequency), the physical setting of the region (climate and weather,
topography, geology), the engineering structures in place, the environmental
constraints (existing ecosystems), the legal regulatory context and institutional
policies. In most contexts, cultural values and preferences are also very important.
To make good decisions, it is clear that a detailed understanding of how the
system works and behaves is necessary. It is equally important to understand the
implications of these decisions - what consequences are likely to ripple through the
interwoven system, and what parties will be affected as a result of a particular set of
actions?
Water resources Engineers and Planners should develop a number of
reasonable alternatives for public officials to consider; they should also evaluate the
economic, environmental, political, and social impacts (consequences) that might
result from each alternative.
Tools and methodologies are required for defining and evaluating the
alternatives for managing the water resources system (Optimization, model
development and simulation)
Simulation is a technique by which we imitate the behavior of a system.
Typically, we use simulation to answer ‘what-if’ type of questions. As against
Systems Techniques in Water Resources optimization, where we are typically
looking for the ‘best possible’ solution, in simulation we simply look at the behavior of
the system for given sets of inputs.
Simulation is a very powerful technique in analyzing most complex water
resource systems in detail for performance evaluation, while optimization models
yield results helpful in planning and management of large systems.
Decision Making Methods (DMMs), in a WRM context, denotes any method
that helps a decision maker identify the “best” adaptation strategy over a long term
planning horizon that are either automatically generated or selected from a range of
pre-defined solutions.
Decision Support System (DSS) is an integrated computing framework
consisting of a database, model base and user interface/dialogue facility that
facilitates the development and evaluation of alternative courses of action. It is used
to transform data to information to support the decision process.
The decision variables are the variables for which decisions are require such
that the objective function is optimized subject to the constraints. Decision analysts
provide quantitative support for the decision-makers in all areas including engineers,
analysts in planning offices and public agencies, project management consultants,
manufacturing process planners, financial and economic analysts, experts
supporting medical/technological diagnosis, and so on and on.
CE92_Emano_ Decision Parameters and Tools- Other Techniques

Decision Parameters and Tools- Other Techniques

1. Techniques vs. Final Decisions
2. Optimization Principles
3. Graphic Techniques
4. Linear Programming
5. Other Techniques
6. Simulation Concepts
Other Techniques include
1. Robust Decision Making (RDM) –
 Robust Decision Making is based on the concept of “robustness” rather than
“optimality”, which emphasises an option’s ability to be effective over a range
of possible future conditions. Considering the characteristic of climate change
and therefore adaptation objectives and measures, RDM is discussed as a
very interesting method supporting adaptation decision making.
 It can be considered as an alternative approach to more traditional economic
assessment methods like cost-benefit analysis, as RDM seeks robust options
(“good enough”) instead of options deemed optimal in terms of economic
efficiency.
 RDM tests adaptation strategies across a large number of plausible future
states, the main objective being to help decision makers anticipate or mitigate
the impacts of a range of possible climatic changes. RDM can help integrate
multiple sources of uncertainties, stemming from e.g. future climate and socio-
economic conditions, in the analysis of the performance of adaptation options.
In particular, RDM allows decision makers to take robust or resilient decisions
in the short-term, despite incomplete and uncertain information about the
long-term.

Figure 1. Steps in a Robust Decision Making analysis.

When should I use Robust Decision Making?

RDM is useful in the adaptation context as it aligns strongly with the notion of
adaptive management. In particular, the consideration of uncertainty in the
application of RDM is seen as one of its most attractive features. RDM was
developed to help policymakers make more effective decisions on near-term options
which could have long-term consequences. For example RDM can examine the
performance of large infrastructure investments as opposed to capacity-building,
considering multiple potential futures. The RDM analysis would help identify trade-
offs and synergies between a variety options and help build the best combination of
options to reducing long-term vulnerability and build resilience. The formal method
provides the analytical power to test many strategies and sources of uncertainty and
identify trade-offs, synergies and robust decisions. Since it highlights options which
CE92_Emano_ Decision Parameters and Tools- Other Techniques

perform well against a wide range of possible futures, it is especially useful when
climate model projections suffer from high uncertainty.

Figure 2. Iterative steps of a Robust Decision Making (RDM) Analysis. This

project's stakeholder workshops contributed directly to Steps 1, 3, and 4.

2. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM)

 The MORDM framework builds on the RDM framework to identify potential
vulnerabilities in a system blended with many-objective search operation.
 Many Objective Robust Decision Making can be used for the generation of
robust planning alternatives for water and environmental systems
 These approaches can be used to help solve multiple problem types such as
providing drinking water treatment under climate extremes
CE92_Emano_ Decision Parameters and Tools- Other Techniques

3. Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP)-

 ATPs are the physical boundary conditions where acceptable technical,
environmental, societal or economic standards may be compromised. These
tipping points are projected and then used to sequence an adaptive strategy.
 “Adaptation Tipping Points” are vital for ascertaining the resilience and
adaptation capacity of physical as well as social systems under current or
future policy regimes. The system may exceed a tipping point due to either a
slow-moving variable (e.g. climate change) or a sudden extreme event (e.g.
flash flood),(6) and due to either exogenous or endogenous, mono-driver or
multi-driver variables.(7) The analysis of tipping points can inform the
adoption of preventive measures in the pre-disaster phase and choice of
recovery options for the post-disaster period. According to Gao et al.,(8) if the
parameter that influences a system’s resilience can be properly identified,
then appropriate measures can be taken on that basis to either enhance or
restore the level of resilience.
 Although “tipping points” are a well-established concept, often associated with
the sustenance of ecosystems, tipping points are relatively new for technical
(engineering) systems, as well as for climate change adaptation and planning.
According to Lenton and Ciscar, “Only recently a start was made to translate
climate tipping points into socio-economic impacts on particular sectors or
regions”.(9) Social tipping points are significant in defining risk acceptability
at a local or community level. In this sense, a tipping point or threshold value
determines stakeholders’ acceptance or rejection of a particular system
condition, which may even shift their locus of decision making to other
factors.(10)
CE92_Emano_ Decision Parameters and Tools- Other Techniques

4. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway (DAPP)

 This method provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a
set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time
and is an addon and advancement to the ATP methodology.
 Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP) are a key concept in DAPP. An adaptation
tipping point specifies the conditions under which the status quo, a policy
action or a portfolio of actions will fail.

5. Real Options Analysis (ROA) –

 ROA is a mechanism for valuating flexibility by evaluating concepts such
as expanding or deferring; allowing decision makers to make changes to a
strategy as new information arises in the future.
 Real options analysis is an approach to decision making that formally
recognizes uncertainty and examines how current decisions limit or
expand our ability to learn and react in the future.
 The approach is most relevant to large, capital intensive investments such
as dyke flood protection or dam-based water storage. It is primarily a
technique for project level rather than aggregate analysis

6. Minimax Regret (MR) –

 This method aims to minimise the worst-case regrets. Regrets are the losses
created from selecting one strategy over another, under an isolated or set of
future scenarios.
 Investment decisions on flood protection are often guided by considerations of
regret. The ‘minimax regret’ (MR) decision criterion is used to identify
investments in flood protection which minimise worst-case regret
CE92_Emano_ Decision Parameters and Tools- Other Techniques

7. Wald’s Maximin Theory (WMT)

 In Maximin theory decisions/strategies are ranked on their worst-case
outcomes within a bounded space.
8. Info-Gap decision theory (IG) –
 This is non-probabilistic decision theory that seeks to optimise robustness to
failure, calculated as the maximum radius of localised uncertainty that can be
negotiated while maintaining specified performance requirements.