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Prime Focus
Buy 06 February 2007
40% EPS CAGR through FY09E, 1-year target price Rs555; BUY
We expect CAGR of 40% in revenue, PAT and EPS through FY09. At
our target PE of 20x FY08E, the value of PF India works out to
Rs440. With conservative assumptions, the DCF value for 55% stake
Shrinath Mithanthaya
in PF UK is Rs115 per share which we believe is not captured in the
Shrinathm@MotilalOswal.com
current price. Our sum-of-parts one-year target price for PF is
+ 91 22 39825421
Rs555, a 51% upside from current levels. We recommend BUY.
© Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd., Hoechst House, 3rd Floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021 Tel: +91 22 39825500
PRIME FOCUS MOSt Mid-caps
Investment Argument
We initiate coverage on Prime Focus with a Buy. Our one-year target
price of Rs555 offers 51% upside from the current levels.
ET is a global revolution
Technology is a key driver of the entertainment1 industry today. The Of the total movies produced
traditional analog processes of entertainment have been completely and released, share of high
ET movies is rising
transformed by digitisation, which we call Entertainment Technology or ET.
International India
Star Wars series Dhoom and Dhoom 2
Lord Of The Rings Krrish
Harry Potter series Don
The Chronicles Of Narnia Koi Mil Gaya
King Kong Hanuman
Shrek and Shrek 2 Hum Tum
Ice Age 1 and 2 Dus
Superman series Paheli
1. In this report, we use the term ‘entertainment’ for movies, TV and ad films.
Also, ET here covers only video and not audio.
2. For glossary of basic technical terms, see Company background, page 6.
India's competitive edge comes from the third, and perhaps the most
important success factor, tongue (or language). Unlike IT/ITeS,
outsourcing of ET services involves a lot of communication with the
customers, mainly Hollywood production houses and/or large studios.
As the major movie markets are English-speaking, India's comfort level
with the language is a major advantage.
Company Ascent Media VTR Plc Prime Focus Margins reflect India's
Country US UK India competitive edge in
ET services
Year ending Dec 2005 Aug 2005 Mar 2006
Currency $ m £ m Rs m
Revenue 304 22 424
EBITDA 57 3 244
EBITDA margin (%) 18.8 13.9 57.5
12.9
10.1 DI, Fx for
8.6 Tier I studios
5.7
3.9
2.7
1.2 1.8 Content partner
for TV, DVDs
Fx for - or buyout
of - Tier II
studios abroad
Fx for Indian
movies
DI, trailers
for Indian
movies
Full ad films
Equipment
hiring
DI - Digital intermediate; Fx - Special effects, animation, etc Source: Motilal Oswal Securities
Tier I studios include the likes of Disney Studios, Dreamworks, Sony Imageworks and Blue Sky
• Strategic locations: three studios in Mumbai, one in Chennai and Preferred post-production
one planned in Hyderabad. PF tends to be a preferred post-production partner for Adlabs
partner for Adlabs, and one of its studios is housed in the Adlabs film
processing facility in Mumbai and Chennai. (Adlabs holds 3.8%
of PF's equity, and Reliance ADA group, which owns Adlabs, has
11.8% stake.)
• Strong relationships with technology vendors: PF is the largest Equipment costs are low
customer in Asia for Spirit, state-of-art telecine equipment by
Thomson of France. Similarly, it has introduced into India the first
Lustre colour grading system by Autodesk of USA. Such moves have
helped it build strong relationships with vendors, resulting in equipment
procurement at highly competitive rates.
3. Offline editing - In offline editing, all the original PF has won several awards, the recent being Screen
footage is digitised at a low resolution. The 2005 awards for best visuals effect in Vaah! Life Ho
editor then does the basic sequencing of the To Aisi, and for best editing in Yahaan.
frames to arrive at the final cut. In May 2006, PF made an IPO of 24m shares @ Rs417
4. Online editing - When the offline edit is to finance acquisition of VTR Plc in UK, and studios in
complete, the pictures are re-assembled at full Chennai and Hyderabad.
Source: www.vtrplc.com
claims to have deployed about £3.2m so far towards enhancing for cost control
post-production equipment.
With the VTR acquisition, we believe PF has emerged as a major force
in the global post-production industry. The potential outcomes of this
acquisition suggest a major upside to PF group's revenue and profit –
• Rise in profitability of the combined entity through offshoring
• Bidding for - and bagging of - large post-production deals based on
the USP of (1) UK-based front-end for quality control and (2) India-
based back-end for cost control
• Qualitative benefits such as effective training of PF India talent, and
exposure to global standards and best practices in ETS.
• Foray into Dubai Studio City and to Los Angeles for tapping Hollywood.
infrastructure and support services for all forms of media business - Dubai
Predictable: Of the four, this would perhaps rank the lowest. There is
more empirical, macro-level evidence of business predictability, rather
than micro-level data like installed capacity and executable order book.
However, we believe the lead empirical indicators are strong -
This is true even for PF India and PF UK. In India, one of the concerns High margins ensure high
is delayed payments from customers, and the need for discounted operating cash flow
settlements. However, this is factored in PF's margins. Thus, the
company has managed to sustain a rising level of operating cash flow.
YTDFY07 figures suggest that FY07 will continue the trend of EPS
growth lower than PAT growth, this time due to the IPO in May 2006.
PF YTD PERFORMANCE
Nine months ending Dec-05 Dec-06 % chg
Revenue (Rs m) 293 389 33
EBITDA margin (%) 58.2 61.5
PAT (Rs m) 110 161 45
Equity shares (m) 10.3 12.7 23
EPS (Rs) 10.7 12.6 18
Abroad
• 55% stake in VTR Plc, UK, renamed Prime Focus, UK (April 2006)
• Acquisition of Clear (Post Production) by PF UK (July 2006)
• Planned facility in Dubai Studio City (expected by mid-FY08)
• EBITDA margin: 63% for PF India in FY08 and FY09, versus 62.2%
in FY07E; PF UK margins to improve from an expected 12% for FY07
to 18% by FY09 due to higher offshoring
Based on these assumptions, FY07-09 PAT and EPS CAGR for PF India
works out to a healthy 40%. We also expect PF to become a zero
net-debt company by end of FY08. In this sense too, PF's business
and financial profile increasingly resembles that of Tier II / Tier I
IT companies.
Sensitivity analysis: The robustness of PF's business model is confirmed EPS CAGR to be at least 22%
by a sensitivity analysis of its earnings growth to revenue growth in all foreseeable situations
and margins.
FY09E
margin 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65%
Rev. CAGR
The average of more likely outcomes (boxed) is 39%, almost the same
as our base case of 40%. In fact, the analysis suggests that EPS CAGR
is unlikely to dip below 22% for any of the above combinations. Beyond
this, the case for lower EPS growth may need to include extreme
unforeseen circumstances such as a major slowdown in US and/or Indian
entertainment industry.
We believe PF's current price does not factor in PF UK, which we currently
value at Rs103 per share. Adjusting for the same, the stock is trading
at an attractive PE of 12x FY08E and 8x FY09E.
PE-based valuation of PF India: As PF does not have a long listed PF India - Rs440
track record and is an emerging business, we have chosen to value it @20x FY08E EPS
only on one-year forward earnings for now.
At 20x FY08E EPS of Rs22, our fair value for core PF India works out to
Rs440 per share.
DCF-based valuation for PF UK: We have assumed very low positive PF UK - Rs115 based on DCF
swing in PF UK's performance. Even in the terminal year FY17, our DCF
model factors in negative EBIT for the company. However, cash flow
remains strongly positive due to aggressive depreciation policy.
Investment Concerns
Mitigant: None
EBITDA margin 45.2 56.5 57.5 62.2 63.0 63.0 Small expansion in margins
Adjusted PAT margin 16.4 26.3 33.1 35.6 33.7 35.4
E: MOSt estimates
Misc. Expenses 0 0 9 3 0 0
Net Deferred Tax -45 -68 -86 -80 -70 -60
E: MOSt estimates
RATIOS - STANDALONE
Y/E MARCH 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E
Basic (Rs)
EPS 4.0 9.3 13.6 16.6 22.0 32.4 40% CAGR FY07-09
Cash EPS 7.2 13.8 18.8 22.9 31.1 42.8
Book Value 23.5 35.2 67.9 148.7 166.2 191.8
Dividend per share 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 4.0 6.0
Payout incl. Div. Tax. (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 21.0 21.0
Profitability (%)
RoE 20.3 32.5 27.8 16.3 14.0 18.1 Return ratios somewhat
RoCE 25.6 36.4 27.7 22.5 21.5 27.7 deflated due to investments
in PF UK
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x) 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Zero net-debt
E: MOSt estimates
E: MOSt estimates
NOTES
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