Strategic Implications of Hybrid War A Theory of Victory

Strategic Implications of Hybrid War: A Theory of
Victory
A Monograph
by
Lt Col Daniel T. Lasica
United States Air Force
School of Advanced Military Studies

United States Army Command and General Staff College
Fort Leavenworth, Kansas
AY 2009
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14. ABSTRACT
While the nature of war does not change, the conduct and methods available to wage and win wars does. This appears to
be the case with respect to hybrid war, an evolving type of war that the United States may soon face. The definition of hybrid
war is the merging of different methods and theories of war and warfare at different levels of war, in different realms and
domains, especially the cognitive and moral domains, by a blend of actors, arranged in time and space to achieve objectives at all
levels of war. Hybrid war poses a novel threat to the United States for many reasons, including undue U.S. attention on irregular
warfare as the "war of the future," as well as hybrid war's blending of modes at different levels of war using different theories of
war and warfare.
Recent discussions about hybrid war have been primarily focused at the tactical and to a lesser degree at the operational
level, not at the strategic level where hybrid war should also be considered. A vital part of "strategic art" is developing a theory
of victory. This paper's thesis is that the United States needs to develop a hybrid war theory of victory, which is combining "how
to win the war" and "what is winning." Generic principles of "what is winning" will be used as criteria to develop a theory of war
relevant to the hybrid warrior. This theory will help enable the United States to determine if and how national power should be
used in a hybrid war to achieve strategic political objectives and what the probable outcomes of military conflict might be in that
situation. This, in turn, will help senior decision makers determine the best ways to achieve strategic objectives and protect
national interests.
One of the biggest challenges hybrid war presents is exploitation of the cognitive and moral domains, vice the physical
domain that the United States traditionally concentrates on. The United States may consider giving the cognitive and moral
domain more emphasis in its approaches to resolving the complex problems that hybrid war presents. This, as well as a joint,
inter-agency approach will allow the United States to meet complexity with complexity and attain victory. Using an approach
that concentrates on identity and meaning may also be beneficial in understanding the hybrid rival and framing a theory of
victory. The value of developing a theory of victory to address hybrid war, a significant threat, cannot be overstated.
15. SUBJECT TERMS
Theory of Victory, Hybrid War, Strategy, Levels of War, Complexity, Domains of War, Problem Resolution, Theories of War
and Warfare
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OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES Stefan J. Banach, COL, U.S. Army
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Lt Col Daniel Todd Lasica
Title of Monograph: Strategic Implications of Hybrid War: A Theory of Victory
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ii
Abstract
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF HYBRID WAR: A THEORY OF VICTORY by Lt Col
Daniel T. Lasica, United States Air Force, 48.
While the nature of war does not change, the conduct and methods available to wage and
win wars does. This appears to be the case with respect to hybrid war, an evolving type of war
that the United States may soon face. The definition of hybrid war is the merging of different
methods and theories of war and warfare at different levels of war, in different realms and
domains, especially the cognitive and moral domains, by a blend of actors, arranged in time and
space to achieve objectives at all levels of war. Hybrid war poses a novel threat to the United
States for many reasons, including undue U.S. attention on irregular warfare as the "war of the
future," as well as hybrid war's blending of modes at different levels of war using different
theories of war and warfare.
Recent discussions about hybrid war have been primarily focused at the tactical and to a
lesser degree at the operational level, not at the strategic level where hybrid war should also be
considered. A vital part of "strategic art" is developing a theory of victory. This paper's thesis is
that the United States needs to develop a hybrid war theory of victory, which is combining "how
to win the war" and "what is winning." Generic principles of "what is winning" will be used as
criteria to develop a theory of war relevant to the hybrid warrior. This theory will help enable the
United States to determine if and how national power should be used in a hybrid war to achieve
strategic political objectives and what the probable outcomes of military conflict might be in that
situation. This, in turn, will help senior decision makers determine the best ways to achieve
strategic objectives and protect national interests.
One of the biggest challenges hybrid war presents is exploitation of the cognitive and
moral domains, vice the physical domain that the United States traditionally concentrates on. The
United States may consider giving the cognitive and moral domain more emphasis in its
approaches to resolving the complex problems that hybrid war presents. This, as well as a joint,
inter-agency approach will allow the United States to meet complexity with complexity and attain
victory. Using an approach that concentrates on identity and meaning may also be beneficial in
understanding the hybrid rival and framing a theory of victory. The value of developing a theory
of victory to address hybrid war, a significant threat, cannot be overstated.
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction...................................................................................................................................... 1
Literature Review............................................................................................................................. 8
Theory of Victory = How to Win + What is Winning "How to Win"........................................... 16
Theory of Victory = How to Win + What is Winning "What is Winning"................................... 27
Differences in Hybrid War - "What is Winning"........................................................................... 35
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................... 39
Recommendations.......................................................................................................................... 43
FIGURES....................................................................................................................................... 49
BIBLIOGRAPHY.......................................................................................................................... 50
iv
The true national objective in war, as in peace, is a more perfect peace. The experience of history
enables us to deduce that gaining military victory is not in itself equivalent to gaining the object
of war.
- Captain Sir Basil Liddell Hart, Thoughts on War, 1944
Introduction
Consider this scenario looking forward to the year 2011. The world community has
confirmed that Iran has developed nuclear weapons technology. Emboldened by this new
capability, they have sought to become a regional hegemon. Saudi Arabia, feeling threatened,
announces its intention to acquire nuclear weapons of its own. In response, Iran, with the help of
Hezbollah, attacks Saudi Arabia using conventional and irregular means in multiple domains.1
Surface to surface missiles rain down on Saudi Arabia.
Simultaneously, Iran attacks much of the Saudi oil infrastructure causing an
environmental disaster. They also close the Strait of Hormuz, choking off one of the Saudi's main
economic lifelines, in addition to attacking the Saudi's computer infrastructure with intense cyber
attacks. Iran also calls for the nuclear destruction of the United States and Israel, blaming Saudi
1
20th century British military theorist J.F.C. Fuller developed a framework to study war that
included three spheres (domains), physical, mental (cognitive), and moral. The physical domain includes
the material used to fight wars, such as tanks, ships, and aircraft and how they are used; moving, guarding,
and hitting. The cognitive domain includes reason, imagination, and will. In the context of this paper, the
cognitive domain is "where" the intellectual rigor is expended, ideas developed, and decisions made to
defeat the enemy. This effort includes such activities as designing campaigns and planning major
operations "to win" and developing an idea of "what winning is." The moral domain is much more
subjective since it deals with many intangibles of war. It includes fear, courage, and the morale of all
parties involved in the conflict. J.F.C.Fuller, The Foundations of the Science of War (London: Hutchinson
& Co., Ltd., 1925). Fuller also discusses the concept of will a great deal in his discussion of the moral
sphere. For the purposes of this paper, "will" will "reside" in the moral domain. This a more contemporary
understanding of the moral domain, as described by School of Advanced Military Studies professor James
Schneider. James Schneider, "Carl von Clausewitz and the Classical Military Paradigm," Briefing given to
the School of Advanced Military Studies, Fort Leavenworth, KS, September 22, 2006, 2. Additionally,
Clausewitz addresses similar concepts. Clausewitz discusses moral factors and elements, which he states,
"are among the most important in war." Carl von Clausewitz, On War, ed. Michael Howard and Peter Paret.
(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976), 184. He also discusses such elements of the physical domain
such as forces, logistics, and firepower. Carl von Clausewitz, 204-209. Additionally, Clausewitz addresses
the cognitive domain in many parts of his book, including his discussion of military genius and war plans.
Carl von Clausewitz, 100 and 617. In fact, Clausewitz maintains that, "Genius consists in a harmonious
combination of elements." Carl von Clausewitz, 100.
1
Arabia's betrayal to the Muslim cause on the United States. Hezbollah, at Iran's request, initiates
anti-Israeli demonstrations in major Palestinian cities and instigates a boycott of Israeli owned
businesses. An intense information operations campaign ensues, seeking to gather Muslim
support against Saudi Arabia, "lapdog" of the United States, as well as to convince the American
public that Saudi Arabia is not worth its blood and treasure. The grave threat to itself and two of
its key allies compels the United States to take action.
Once battle is joined, it is evident that this enemy is well equipped and ready to challenge
the United States. Iran simultaneously uses a blend of conventional and irregular methods of
warfare with a robust strategic communication and information operations campaign. Included in
their information operations campaign are "strikes" against U.S. military and civilian computer
networks.
Iran initiates temporally coordinated attacks against the United States in all three different
domains; physical, moral, and cognitive, clearly indicating a very sophisticated enemy that
intends to attack any and all perceived U.S. vulnerabilities. The battle in the cognitive and moral
domains is especially intense. The enemy seeks to gain regional, if not international, legitimacy in
its fight against the United States and they target U.S. public will, a known critical vulnerability.
This fictional, albeit not unrealistic, scenario is an example of an evolving hybrid war
challenge to vital U.S. interests.2 While the nature of war does not change, the conduct and
methods available to wage and win wars does. This appears to be the case with respect to hybrid
war. As described by the United States Marine Corps Strategic Vision Group, "Hybrid Wars
combine a range of different modes of warfare, including conventional capabilities, irregular
tactics and formations, terrorist acts including indiscriminate violence and coercion, and criminal
2
Of note, this type of threat is not isolated to the Middle East. As an example, China is a very
credible hybrid threat whose economic and military might are on the rise.
2
disorder."3 This paper will take a broader approach to hybrid war, defining it as the merging of
different methods and theories of war at different levels of war, in different realms and domains,
especially the cognitive and moral domains, by a blend of actors, arranged in time and space to
achieve objectives at all levels of war.
The hybrid warrior seeks to quickly convert their tactical success and their enemy's
mistakes into strategic effects through deliberate exploitation of the cognitive and moral domains.
Hybrid war is a strategy and a tactic, a form of war and warfare. Hybrid warriors seek to
compress the U.S.' concept of the levels of war, thus accelerating the tempo of the conduct of
war. As strategic scholar Colin Gray has noted, "we can predict with confidence is that there is
going to be a blurring, a further blurring, of war categories."4
The hybrid war threat is beginning to gain interest in security communities around the
world, including the United States, Britain, and Australia. Australian Michael Evans stated that,
"the reality of war in the first decade of the twenty-first century is likely to transcend a neat
division into distinct categories, symmetry and asymmetry."5
Recent discussions about hybrid war have been primarily focused at the tactical and to a
lesser degree at the operational level, not at the strategic level where hybrid war should also be
considered. Colin Gray once asked, "Who, exactly, peoples the profession of strategy?"6 Of those
3
U.S. Marine Corps, "Hybrid Warfare and Challengers" (Strategic Vision Group Information
Paper, February 12, 2008), 1.
4
Colin S. Gray, Another Bloody Century: Future Warfare (London: Weidenfeld and Nicholson,
2005), quoted in U.S. Marine Corps, "Hybrid Warfare and Challengers" (Strategic Vision Group
Information Paper, February 12, 2008), 1.
5
Michael Evans, "From Kadesh to Kandahar: Military Theory and the Future of War," Naval War
College Review 56, no. 3 (Summer 2003): 141.
6
Colin S. Gray, Modern Strategy, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999), quoted in Michael
Evans, "From the Long Peace to the Long War: Armed Conflict and Military Education and Training in the
21st Century,” Australian Defence College Occasional Series, no. 1 (2007): 14.
3
who are thinking strategically, how many are considering hybrid war and how this threat affects
the concept of the U.S. theory of victory?
A theory of victory is a cognitive theoretical framework within which senior decision
makers determine the most effective and efficient manner to, as author Brian Bonds describes,
achieve a decisive military victory and turn it into positive political gains.7 In his book, The
Pursuit of Victory, Brian Bond illustrates two related problems warring parties have faced from
the mid-eighteenth century to the present with respect to victory.8 The first is the operational
difficulties involved in winning decisive campaign victories. The second, and often ill
coordinated with the first, is the translation of those victories into long-term political advantages.9
This paper will define theory of victory as the sum of "how to win wars" and the understanding of
"what is winning" at the strategic level.10 Seen another way, it is the convergence of "Ways" and
"Ends." Both these aspects are unique in the context of the hybrid war challenge and will be
investigated in this paper to define a U.S. theory of victory with respect to hybrid war.
Developing a theory of victory with regard to hybrid war is necessary because instead of
investigating the hybrid war threat, especially with respect to a theory of victory, it is very
possible that the United States focuses too much on irregular warfare as the type of war it will
most likely face in the future.11 Irregular warfare capability should be "A" U.S. capability, not
"THE" capability the United States prepares for at all three levels of war.
7
J. Boone Bartholomees, “Theory of Victory,” Parameters (Summer 2008): 25 and Brian Bond,
The Pursuit of Victory: From Napoleon to Saddam Hussein (New York: Oxford University Press, 1996),
201-202.
8
Brian Bond, 201-202.
9
Ibid.
10
J. Boone Bartholomees, 25.
11
This paper will use the Department of Defense definition of irregular warfare, "A violent
struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations. IW
favors indirect and asymmetric approaches, though it may employ the full range of military and other
4
After overthrow of the respective regimes, the United States initially had considerable
difficulty fighting an irregular campaign in Iraq and now in Afghanistan. The insurgents posed a
threat the United States was not ready for and did not initially recognize. In On War, Clausewitz
states that the first and arguably most important duty of a commander and statesman is to
understand the type of the war they face.12 In order to understand the war that faces them, the
commander and statesman must first recognize it for what it is or they may face dangerous
consequences.
These consequences partially arise from the potential effects of a threat blending into a
concerted cyber, space, irregular, conventional, economic, criminal, or nuclear threat. Hezbollah
vividly demonstrated the effectiveness of a hybrid challenger in 2006 against Israel and it is very
probable that adversaries could use such a form of hybrid war against the United States in the
near future. This form of war exists as a potential model that future adversaries could use.
It is logical then, to investigate the threat that a hybrid war challenger might pose to the
United States in terms of one of the 2008 National Defense Strategy (NDS) five key objectives,
Win Our Nation's Wars.13 U.S. strategic planning tends to neatly categorize threats instead of
understanding the blending of threats that could exist, characterizing threats as either
conventional or irregular. The 2008 NDS describes adversaries that, "could be states or [emphasis
added] non-state actors; they could use nuclear, conventional, or [emphasis added]
unconventional weapons."14 This mindset could lead to an inability on the part of the United
States to develop a theory of victory for and execute against, a "future challenges risk" as outlined
capabilities, in order to erode an adversary's power, influence, and will." U.S. Department of Defense,
Irregular Warfare (IW) Joint Operating Concept (JOC), Version 1.0, September 11, 2007, 6.
12
Carl von Clausewitz, 88-89.
13
U.S. Department of Defense, National Defense Strategy, June 2008, 6. There is another of the
five key objectives that is relevant in relation to the hybrid war threat, "Deter Conflict." This key objective
is an additional topic recommended for further study with respect to hybrid war.
14
U.S. Department of Defense, National Defense Strategy, 11.
5
in the 2008 NDS. These risks are "those associated with the Department's capacity to execute
future missions successfully against an array of prospective future challengers," such as a hybrid
challenger.15 As noted by General James Mattis, USMC, Joint Forces Command commander,
"We are not likely to get the future right. We just need to make sure we don't get it too wrong."16
As an example, aspects of a hybrid challenger were evident during Russia's struggle
against Chechnya in the 1990s. Chechnyan fighters fought both conventionally and
unconventionally in the same battlespace and used complex urban terrain, modern weapons, and
robust information operations to repel the Russians.17 In 2006, Hezbollah battled the Israeli
Defense Forces using a blend of conventional, irregular, and information methods of warfare.18
This was a more advanced use of hybrid war than the Chechnyan separatists used against Russia
due to the more advanced weapons available and the intense battle Hezbollah fought in the
cognitive and moral domains to quickly achieve strategic effects using the results of tactical
battles.19 The determination of undisputed victory in that war is still unresolved.20
15
U.S. Department of Defense, National Defense Strategy, 21.
16
James Mattis, USMC, quoted in Mackubin Thomas Owens, "Reflections on Future War," Naval
War College Review 61 (Summer 2008): 74.
17
"Grisly in Grozny," Economist, January 7, 1995 and Sergey A. Kulikov and Robert R. Love,
"Insurgent Groups in Chechnya," Military Review (Nov/Dec 2003).
18
William M. Arkin. Divining Victory: Airpower in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War (Maxwell
AFB, AL: Air University Press, August 2007), xix. The Israeli-Hezbollah War of 2006 also illustrates some
of the difficulties a nation can face when it concentrates too much on one type of warfare. In the case of the
Israeli's, they concentrated too heavily on counterinsurgency. Due to years of concentrating on the internal
threat presented by the Palestinian Liberation Organization and Hamas, the Israeli Defense Force had let its
conventional warfighting capabilities lapse. Matt M. Mathews, "We Were Caught Unprepared: The 2006
Hezbollah-Israeli War," The Long War Series Occasional Paper 26. U.S. Army Combined Arms Center
Combat Studies Institute Press, 2. This was just one of many factors that led to what many consider a
strategic defeat for Israel.
19
Sarah E. Kreps, "The 2006 Lebanon War: Lessons Learned," Parameters (Spring 2007): 79-80.
20
Retired Lebanese Brigadier General Hanna noted of Hezbollah during Hezbollah's 2006 war
with Israel that it may be impossible to truly judge victory with actors like Hezbollah. Brigadier General
Hanna also holds that Israel achieved no political goals. Elias Hanna, "Lessons Learned from the Recent
War in Lebanon," Military Review (September-October 2007): 89 and 86.
6
Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia demonstrated even wider, yet shallower aspects of
hybrid war since the invasion displayed a heavier concentration of conventional warfare and
seemingly less battle in the cognitive and moral domains. However, the Russian attempts at
modest information, cyber, and economic warfare were significant.21 What will the next hybrid
war evolution look like and will it target the United States? Are we ready? Clearly, hybrid war
seems to be evolving and will eventually pose a threat to the United States.
As the current wars in Afghanistan and Iraq illustrate, the ability to develop a theory of
victory before and adjusting it during a conflict is paramount. Not developing a theory of victory
raises the possibility of catastrophic strategic consequences. The Vietnam War offers an example
of the outcome of not having a sound theory of victory, among other problems. Had the U.S.
strategic leadership considered a theory of victory, they may not have entered that conflict.
However, if the leadership thought the war was necessary, a theory of victory, defining "how to
win" plus determining "what is victory", may have led to a more favorable outcome for the
United States.
This paper's thesis is that the United States needs to frame a hybrid war theory of victory,
which combines "how to win" and "what is winning." This framework is different than other
theories of victory because it describes a theory of victory in the context of hybrid war. This
theory will help determine if and how a senior leader should use national power in a hybrid war
environment to achieve strategic political objectives and what the probable outcomes of military
21
The Russian-Georgian scenario of 2008 is an example of a Western nation state attempting to
use aspects of hybrid war. It is evidenced by heavy use of conventional forces in the physical domain and
less emphasis on the cognitive domain. Clearly, to achieve their strategic objectives, the Russians did not
need to resort to true hybrid war because of their preponderance of conventional military might against a
small conventional threat. The previous two examples, the Chechnyans and Hezbollah, illustrate a more
pure hybrid threat against a superior equipped western nation state. This was especially true in the battle for
the cognitive and moral domains, which Hezbollah was compelled to resort to because of an inferior
military. Siobhan Gorman, "Georgia States' Computers Hit By Cyberattack," Wall Street Journal, August
12, 2008. Thom Shanker, "Russians Blend Old-School Blitz with Modern Military Tactics," New York
Times, August 17, 2008.
7
conflict might be in that situation. This, in turn, will help senior decision makers determine the
best “Ways” to achieve strategic objectives and protect national interests.
In order to fully explore hybrid war and an applicable theory of victory, the definitions of
war and warfare will be considered. This discussion will lead to an examination of several
theories of war and warfare. The concept of hybrid war as a hybrid of war and warfare theories
will also be considered. Theory of victory will then be discussed and its significance examined
with an emphasis on the challenge hybrid war poses to achieving decisive victory and the ability
to convert military successes into long-term political gains. Next, the first part of the theory of
victory equation, "How to win" at the strategic level, will be examined. A general discussion of
the more difficult second half of the equation, "what is winning" at the strategic level will follow.
These principles will then be used as criteria to compare and contrast the concept of "what is
winning" in a hybrid war environment. The paper will conclude with a summarization of the
analysis conducted. Finally, recommendations will then be made as to a way ahead for the United
States' theory of victory with respect to hybrid war.
Literature Review
To understand hybrid war, it is useful to deconstruct the words "hybrid", "war", and
"warfare." This will lay a theoretical foundation by drawing boundaries for these terms.
According to The American Heritage Dictionary, "hybrid" is "something of mixed origin or
composition."22 With respect to hybrid war, some see this "mixing" simply as a blurring of
capabilities at the tactical level, such as a Hezbollah guerilla fighter using a high-tech anti-tank
weapon.23 This tactical example is only a very small portion of the hybrid aspect of these
22
The American Heritage Dictionary, Second College Edition, (Boston: Houghton Mifflin
Company, 1985), 629.
23
Matthew Rusling, "Shifting Gears: For the Military, a Future of 'hybrid' wars," National
Defense, (September 2008): 32.
8
challenges, but it tends to be the one many analysts and scholars focus on. What is more
important to examine is different modes of warfare combined to achieve strategic effects and
increase the complexity of the situation.
Figure 1. Hybrid War Complexity Continuum
Understanding the terms "war" and "warfare" are critical when considering hybrid war.
The concept of war will be examined first. According to Clausewitz, "War is thus an act of force
to compel our enemy to do our will."24 As Colin Gray maintains, the nature of war never
changes.25 Gray also describes war as a relationship between belligerents, "employed and
misemployed by flawed people for a host of reasons."26 He also depicts, as does Clausewitz, war
as primarily political, since violence without political content is crime.27 Thus, victory, the
purpose of war, is pursued for political objectives.28
One scholar who disagrees with the concept that the nature of war is constant, Dr. John
Alexander, suggests that information technology enhances the ability of entities (state, non-state,
criminal) to impose their will on an adversary. He holds that it is the ability of a belligerent to
impose its will, not the amount of violence achieved, that will decide the winner of any given
24
Carl von Clausewitz, 75.
25
Colin S. Gray, Another Bloody Century: Future Warfare, 30.
26
Colin S. Gray, "Defining and Achieving Decisive Victory," (U.S. Army War College Strategic
Studies Institute Monograph, Carlisle Barracks, PA, April 2002), 7.
27
28
Colin S. Gray, War, Peace, and International Relations: An Introduction to Strategic History.
(New York: Routledge, 2007), 8.
9
conflict.29 Alexander, then, asks the fundamental question of whether or not violence remains a
necessary component of war. This author maintains that violence absolutely remains a necessary
component of war, but understands that it does not hold a monopoly in war and warfare as it once
did. Violence is still the means by which the opponent achieves his desired ends, and always will
be. It is noteworthy however, that scholars such as Dr. Alexander, consider the power of the
cognitive and moral domains and the significance of influencing people to be so great that it is
changing the very nature of war.
War is a broad concept that includes the concept of warfare, in addition to strategy,
justification for going to war, theories of victory, and sustainment of the war effort, to name just a
few. War, therefore, can be considered a strategic concept.
Warfare, however, can be considered a tactical concept whose character changes with
time, as Gray maintains.30 Mackubin Owens, Naval War College professor, describes this
changing character as infinite, allowing weaker adversaries to use different types of warfare to
confront and possibly defeat stronger opponents.31 Examples of the different types of warfare
include conventional, irregular, information, cyber, nuclear, and economic.
The hybrid warrior attempts to simultaneously blend these types of warfare in different
domains, simultaneously, in the battlespace. Their goal is to accelerate the tempo of warfare
while achieving strategic effects. Lest one disregard the hybrid war threat and think a weaker
enemy cannot defeat the United States, weaker belligerents have been successful against stronger
opponents approximately 40 percent of the time since World War II.32
29
John B. Alexander, "The Changing Nature of War, the Factors Mediating Future Conflict, and
Implications for SOF," (Joint Special Operations University Report 06-1, Hurlburt Field, FL, April 2006),
1.
30
31
Mackubin Thomas Owens, 67.
32
Ibid.
10
Synthesizing the terms hybrid and war then, hybrid war is a combination of strategy and
tactics designed to mix the types of warfare to use tactical success to achieve strategic effects by
quickly exploiting the cognitive and moral domains. Hybrid war is not only hybrid in its
capabilities and its effects, but more important to understanding and combating it is that hybrid
war is hybrid in its theory and logic as well. Aspects of classical theorists such as Clausewitz and
Sun Tzu, as well as newer theorists like Mao, and proponents of Unrestricted Warfare and Fourth
Generation Warfare can be used to describe hybrid war. This presents a difficult challenge for the
United States as a fusion of the most appropriate aspects of these different theories challenge U.S.
vulnerabilities.
First, threats attempting to generate a hybrid war environment seem to understand
Clausewitz's concept of a belligerent’s power of resistance being the product of means and will.33
As the world's only superpower, the United States' military and economic means are unmatched.
Threats attempting to generate a hybrid war environment understand this and thus seek to
challenge the United States with modest military means in an asymmetric manner, while focusing
on the U.S. will to fight. The ultimate aim of threats in a hybrid war is to directly target the U.S.
will to fight using a variety of modes of warfare. There is a large conceptual difference between
this mindset and the U.S. mindset that seeks an indirect approach to an opponent's will through its
armed forces.
Hybrid war threats also seem to understand Clausewitz's center of gravity concept,
especially as it relates to the U.S.’ will to fight. They realize that the public is the U.S. center of
gravity, with the will to fight being a critical vulnerability. Globalization has presented many
opportunities to exploit this vulnerability, especially in the economic and informational realms.
The prolonged wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have tapped a great deal of critical human and
33
11
material resources and have strained the U.S. will to fight, making the United States even more
vulnerable to a future hybrid war threat. Astute hybrid war adversaries could exploit this
vulnerability in the future by attacking in the cognitive and moral domains.
Actions taken by hybrid warriors also exhibit several of Sun Tzu's concepts. They
subscribe to the oft-quoted Sun Tzu adage to know thyself and thy enemy and in a hundred
battles you will never be endangered.34 On many different levels, it seems these challengers know
the U.S. much better than we know ourselves. It is also true that they know us better than we
know them. As Sun Tzu maintains, this aids the ability of adversaries (in a hybrid war) to
manipulate U.S. psychology.35 It also allows a belligerent to act beyond their enemy's
understanding, a key point when attacking in the cognitive domain.36
Another important aspect of Sun Tzu's teachings evident in a hybrid war is the
importance of changing form, appropriately adapting to conflict situations by the employment of
different types and size of forces.37 Sun Tzu espouses the use of both regular and irregular actions
to defeat the enemy. Sun Tzu also suggests weakening the enemy through both asymmetric and
unconventional means that exploit weaknesses by targeting vulnerabilities, all key pillars of the
hybrid war approach.38 Fluidity and flexibility, not only of forces, but of strategy, also appear to
be key aspects of Sun Tzu's teachings that emerge in hybrid war.39
34
Sun Tzu, The Art of War. trans. Samuel B. Griffith (New York: Oxford University Press, 1963),
129.
35
Sun Tzu, The Art of War. trans. J.H. Huang, (New York: Quill, William Morrow Publishers,
1993), 62.
36
Ibid., 63.
37
Ibid., 68.
38
Ibid., 58.
39
Ibid., 67-68.
12
Sun Tzu's theories heavily influenced Mao Zedong, so it holds that aspects of Mao
Zedong's teachings may influence hybrid warriors. His ideas may appeal to a hybrid threat
because a weak agent in the system can defeat a more powerful opponent by combining
asymmetrical types of warfare with a strategy designed to influence an audience in the cognitive
and moral domains.40 Mao's ideas are different than hybrid war concepts, however, in that hybrid
war challenges a state externally. Significantly, Mao Zedong also wrote that a decisive military
battle does not exist in this type of war.41 Mao's concept of victory, similar to a hybrid warrior's
concept, is a political victory. These ideas fundamentally contradict the current American concept
of a military focused theory of victory.
There are also many relevant ideas from the Unrestricted Warfare school of thought an
adversary has the potential to apply while attempting to generate hybrid war. The Chinese authors
hold that there is a revolution in military thought that transcends technological revolutions.42 An
example of this thought is the hybrid warrior's fusion of strategy and tactics, as well as the mixed
fighting forms and methods that are influenced by a logic similar to Sun Tzu and Mao. These
concepts are problematic for the United States because it often aspires to action and technological
answers to problems vice searching for cognitive solutions that exploit the propensity of a system
40
Thomas A. Marks, "Insurgency in Nepal," Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College,
December 2003, 6-7.
41
Mao, Zedong. On Guerilla War. 1937. http://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/
works/1937/guerrilla-war/, Ch 2, page 1. (accessed January 29, 2009).
42
Liang and Xiangsu also describe a mixed conduct of warfare through three indispensible
"hardware" elements of warfare, soldiers, weapons, and the battlefield, that couple with the "software" of
purposefulness. These elements, akin to Clausewitz's means and will, are changing in the current globalized
world and increasingly threaten U.S. vulnerabilities. Adversaries are increasingly likely to not only use
military power, but also use information technologies, cyber attacks and trade disruptions to target the U.S.'
potential weaknesses caused by an economy and society that has become intertwined with the rest of the
world. Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, Unrestricted Warfare: China's Master Plan to Destroy America
Panama City: Pan American Publishing Co., 2002), 94 and 25.
13
to solve a problem. Eastern schools of thought are antithetical to Western concepts in many ways,
as the different approaches to war identified by Clausewitz and Sun Tzu illustrate.43
Lastly, there are aspects of the much-debated Fourth Generation Warfare theory that are
useful in describing and explaining certain aspects of the hybrid war threat. In fact, al Qaeda has
discussed Fourth Generation Warfare on one of its websites, stating it uses some Fourth
Generation Warfare concepts.44 A Fourth Generation opponent will most likely be barbaric and
fight to the death, often motivated by radical ideology. They will also use networks, as Hezbollah
did in 2006, possibly linking state, non-state, and criminal organizations. Additionally, Fourth
Generation Warfare, like hybrid war, stresses the importance of the use of the cognitive domain
in influencing different agents in the system.
There are large differences between adversaries operating in a hybrid war environment
and a Fourth Generation warrior, however. 45 Once again, very similar to Mao, Fourth Generation
Warfare focuses exclusively on internal threats or irregular threats, as categorized by U.S.
doctrine. Fourth Generation Warfare comprises just a portion of the much broader hybrid war
spectrum of capabilities and implications.46
43
Francois Jullien, A Treatise of Efficacy (Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2004), vii-viii.
44
T.X. Hammes, "Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges," Military Review (May-
June 2007), 14.
45
Thomas X. Hammes, The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century (St. Paul: Zenith
Press, 2006), 2. Fourth generation warfare (4GW), as defined by Col Hammes is an evolved form of
insurgency when an adversary uses all available networks, political, economic, social, and military, to
target the enemy's decision makers that their objectives are either unattainable or too costly. While there are
elements of 4GW in hybrid war, hybrid war is a much broader concept that focuses on external threats vice
the internal threats 4GW describes.
46
Significantly, many dispute the idea that Fourth Generation warfare is actually a theory.
Additionally, although it does have some merit (as discussed above), the fact that Fourth Generation
Warfare theory is being considered so rigorously is evidence that many in this country are focused on too
narrow of a threat. Too narrow of a focus can have negative strategic implications in the future.
14
Hybrid war is not a description of the next Afghanistan or Iraq. Hybrid war is a departure
from the current strategic paradigm that seems mired in counterinsurgency. This
counterinsurgency focus naturally stems from the two most recent and still ongoing conflicts the
United States is involved in that were initiated by the United States' perceived need for regime
change in Iraq and Afghanistan. Regime change will not be the primary political objective for
every war the United States will fight in the future. Additionally, every regime change will not
result in an insurgency.
Just as with the concept of hybrid war, it is useful to deconstruct the concept of the theory
of victory. J. Boone Bartholomees, U.S. Army War College professor, describes the theory of
victory as "the biggest theoretical challenge facing security professionals today."47 To begin the
discussion, a useful definition of victory is, "a successful struggle against an opponent or
obstacle."48
A theory of victory is a cognitive theoretical framework within which senior decision
makers determine the most effective and efficient manner to gain a decisive military victory and
turn it into lasting, positive political gains.49 Colin Gray describes it in the form of strategic
advantages and successes where different degrees are acceptable, while J. Boone Bartholomees
uses scales to describe the concept.50 It can also be described as a continuum.
As is the case with all activities that fall in the realm of social science, human inability to
conduct social experiments limits the study of war and thus theories of victory. Therefore, the
study is relegated to observation and analysis. Determining causality and predictive ability are
also severely limited. This points to the importance of context. As Colin Gray describes, "Context
47
48
The American Heritage Dictionary, Second College Edition, 1347.
49
J. Boone Bartholomees, 25 and Brian Bond, 201.
50
Colin S. Gray, "Defining and Achieving Decisive Victory," v and J. Boone Bartholomees, 26.
15
rules!"51 When designing campaigns or major operations, templates are of little use as senior
decision makers must treat every enemy as a unique strategic, social, political, and cultural
entity.52 It is also critical to understand what the opponent's theory of victory is and what their
perception regarding the eventual outcome actually is.
Victory, then, is very subjective. Bartholomees suggests that victory is an assessment
rather than a fact or condition.53 Victory is not only physical, but also cognitive and moral. The
old adage of perception being reality certainly applies to this discussion. There are many
interested agents in any conflict who make an assessment of the situation. It is critical to
determine whose analysis matters the most, when it matters, why it matters, and what criteria
senior leaders will use to determine these issues.54 For the United States, the assessment of the
American people clearly matters most. This idea supports the previously discussed hybrid war
threats' use of two of Clausewitz's concepts; will as a source of power and how willpower relates
to the United States' center of gravity. Therefore, it is important when constructing a theory of
victory to understand who decides what victory means for the enemy and how they decide.
Theory Of Victory = How To Win + What Is Winning
"How To Win"
One of the first tasks senior decision makers must accomplish when developing a theory
of victory with regards to hybrid war is to develop a "Way" to defeat adversaries attempting to
generate hybrid war while defending oneself. Simply put, it is designing a strategy to combat the
challenge of hybrid war. In order for the United States to defeat any threat it must develop a
51
Colin S. Gray, "Recognizing and Understanding Revolutionary Change in War: The
Sovereignty of Context," (U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute Monograph, Carlisle
Barracks, PA, February 2006), 48.
52
Ibid., vi.
53
54
Ibid.
16
theory of victory appropriate for the environment and the threat the United States faces.
Developing a sound theory of victory is absolutely critical because, as Colin Gray maintains,
"there is more to war than warfare," since "the succeeding peace is the breeding ground for future
conflict."55
Hybrid war is evolving for many reasons. Paradoxically, U.S. dominance in the
conventional realm has been one of the main catalysts for this type of war. In addition to our
strengths, potential adversaries have studied the American system of war and understand its
weaknesses. Hybrid war is meant to attack American weaknesses at all levels with complex
threats, in multiple domains, while avoiding American strengths. The 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war
seemed to foreshadow the effects of a hybrid war challenge the United States may face.
Figure 2 depicts three hypothetical hybrid threats mapped on the 2005 National Defense
Strategy "Quad Chart."56 The paradigm the United States has traditionally been comfortable with
is the adversary described in the bottom left, the "Traditional" quadrant, although that comfort
level now increasingly includes threats in the upper left portion of the chart, the "Irregular"
quadrant. Single-mode traditional threats are not the most likely adversaries of the future due to
overwhelming U.S. ability to counter traditional threats. It is significant to note that there is no
exact form that an adversary operating in a hybrid war takes, as depicted by the three different
hybrid war threat forms, "A", "B", and "C". Every scenario will be different, posing unique
challenges to the United States. It is also important to note the information operations bubble that
55
Colin S. Gray, Another Bloody Century: Future Warfare, 37 and 15.
56
This chart is an original, created by the author. It uses a graphic depiction of the 4 types of
threats found in the 2005 NDS, page 2-6. These threats were often depicted in Pentagon briefs as the, "quad
chart." 56 Nathan Freier, "Strategic Competition and Resistance in the 21st Century: Irregular, Catastrophic,
Traditional, and Hybrid Challenges in Context." (U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
Monograph, Carlisle Barracks, May 2007), 2-3.
17
encompasses all three bubbles in a hybrid war context. Fully integrated information operations
are noticeably absent from the U.S. construct of possible threats it could face in the future. 57
Figure 2. 2005 Hybrid War and Threat Categories
The United States' strategic methodology has concentrated on the difficult process of
planning for, coordinating, and executing to achieve Brian Bond's two previously discussed
objectives; winning decisive campaign victories and translating those victories into long-term
political gains. Added to the difficulty of targeting a hybrid war challenger's means is the
American notion of decisive victory and unconditional surrender. It is this idea of absolutes that
frames any theory of victory short of total defeat of the enemy as a failure for the United States. 58
57
It is important to note that the future is actually a metaphor since it does not yet exist and
therefore humans can never know it. What strategists are actually doing when "looking to the future," is
developing a set of alternatives that allow them to critically examine possible actions, identify imbalances,
and ensure they are ready to face issues that may occur. Shimon Naveh, interview by Matt Matthews, Fort
Leavenworth, Kansas, November 1, 2007. This is exactly what General Mattis speaks of in his warning to
not get the future "too wrong." Mackubin Thomas Owens, 74. Considering the future as metaphor then,
hybrid war should be one of the types of threats the United States considers developing a strategy for and
ensuring imbalances are minimized.
58
William C. Martel, Victory in War: Foundations in Military Policy, (New York: Cambridge
Press, 2007), 106.
18
This idea of total military victory, which has become the American strategic paradigm, may not
be possible in a hybrid war. Understanding the current U.S theory of victory, based primarily on
conventional threats, is important to determine how a senior leader will use the military to support
political objectives. This awareness will enable the senior decision maker to design a new theory
of victory in a hybrid war.
Figure 3 illustrates a paradigm where technology-driven, conventional, joint forces attack
the enemy's military to achieve decisive military victory, which in turn influences the enemy's
will to continue the fight or quit the fight. Senior decision makers are able to convert victory into
a positive, long-term political outcome. This paradigm has its roots in Jominian and
Clausewitzian thinking that details defeat of the enemy forces as the key to victory. As Brian
Bond maintains however, strategic decisive military victory is very difficult.59 The concept of
decisive military victory is so foundational to the U.S. theory of victory, securing anticipated
political outcomes becomes very difficult. Both decisive military victory and a favorable political
outcome will become even more difficult in hybrid war.
Figure 3. Current U.S. Theory of Victory
59
Brian Bond, 201.
19
Conversely, adversaries attempting to fight a hybrid war may utilize three main elements
to enable it to circumvent the first objective, decisive military victory, and concentrate on the
second objective, long-term political victory. As referenced in Figure 4, which depicts the hybrid
war theory of victory, three significant elements are the emphasis on the cognitive and moral
domains (in addition to using the physical domain), elusive form, and full spectrum warfare
capabilities.
Figure 4. Hybrid War Challenger Theory of Victory
The first and most significant enabler of hybrid war is the emphasis on the cognitive and
moral domains. It is this element that drives adversaries in a hybrid war to target the opponent's
population, specifically their will, and allows the hybrid warrior to circumvent the quest for
decisive military victory. The North Vietnamese understood aspects of hybrid war. They were
masters of operations in the cognitive and moral domains during the Vietnam War. An oft-quoted
post war exchange between a high-ranking North Vietnamese officer and Col Harry Summers of
the U.S. Army illustrates this concept well. After Summers commented that the United States had
won the preponderance of tactical battles, the North Vietnamese officer replied, "That may be so,
20
but it is also irrelevant."60 It is also important to understand that it is very probable in hybrid war
that the enemy will insulate its population, and therefore their will, from U.S. influence attempts.
Convincing many different audiences of their defeat makes waging hybrid war especially
difficult. As Sun Tzu admonishes to know thy enemy, senior decision makers must design a plan
with multiple audiences, possibly from different cultures, in mind. The plan must allow the
military to directly or indirectly target the enemy's will so that he realizes and admits defeat, and
subsequently ceases operations. As Sun Tzu describes, this military victory will provide effective
support for the political establishment.61
Second, hybrid war threats constitute an elusive and fluid form. Their strategy directs a
great deal of effort in the cognitive and moral domains, but the portion that resides in the physical
domain is difficult to find, identify, and target because it often blends into the surrounding
environment. This may prolong the conflict, exhausting U.S. will and resources. The blending of
military and civilian forms in the physical realm also increases the possibility of U.S. and civilian
causalities. This physical problem further exacerbates the battle in the cognitive and moral
domains by providing potential fuel for the adversaries' information operations, increasing the
possibility of achieving strategic effects.
One example of this fluidity is Saddam Hussein's flexible conventional and irregular use
of the Fedayeen during Operation Iraqi Freedom. As allied forces raced for Baghdad in 2003,
these fighters began an irregular warfare campaign. Another example is the potential Iranian use
of distributed operations at sea. The Iranians deliberately developed the ability to coordinate the
use of small, fast surface vessels that blend into the thousands of fishing vessels and commercial
traffic in the Persian Gulf. This threat poses a significant risk to U.S. naval forces because it is
extremely difficult to identify friend from foe. This increases the probability that an adversary can
60
61
Sun Tzu, The Art of War. trans. J.H. Huang, 109.
21
use an engagement in the physical realm to explicitly influence the cognitive and moral domains.
The March 2008 accidental killing of an Egyptian fisherman by U.S. merchantmen in the Suez
Canal is evidence of this difficulty.62
The elusive and flexible form of adversaries waging hybrid war makes identification and
targeting difficult, especially considering that the U.S. theory of victory rests upon decisive
military victory. Additionally, elusive form, coupled with new ways to use terrain (especially
urban terrain), make collateral damage a significant factor. The hybrid warrior's strategy
capitalizes on collateral damage mistakes the United States makes in the cognitive and moral
domains. Using this form in dense urban terrain may also produce U.S. casualties that an
adversary can use in the cognitive and moral domains of hybrid war against the U.S. public.
Operating in a high-threat, often distributed, urban environment also effects U.S. soldiers in the
moral domain by increasing fear and decreasing cohesion, morale, and will.
The last element that characterizes hybrid war is true full spectrum warfare capabilities.
Globalization, the spread of affordable information technology, cyberwar means, and readily
available, advanced off-the-shelf armaments eliminates the United States' near-monopoly on
technologically sophisticated capabilities. It is not merely the access to the means, but the ability
to apply these means in a number of different modes, realms, domains, and levels of war
simultaneously that makes this threat extremely relevant to the United States. Hezbollah's use of
cell phones to coordinate targeting of Israeli tanks using conventional anti-tank rounds and
improvised explosive devices by guerrilla fighters in 2006 is an excellent example of this
blending at the tactical level.
The use of hybrid war's true full spectrum means will be extremely challenging to the
United States. This presents the United States with a problem set analogous to the one it intends
62
"U.S. admits to Suez Canal Killing," ABC News, March 26, 2008.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/26/2200141.htm (accessed September 23, 2008).
22
to present its adversaries, parallel operations across many different realms. This full spectrum
threat may attempt to manipulate the propensities of different complex systems such as the
economy, environment, and information infrastructure, to their advantage. The United States may
not have the ability to bring these systems back within an acceptable level of tolerance. All three
of these points share one theme, the importance of both sides' will and how each point either
directly or indirectly influences the will of significant agents in the system. Influencing the
adversary's will remains a vital part of the hybrid warrior's strategy.
There is an important balance that must be struck between the enemy's means and his
will, Clausewitz's two elements of victory.63 Both must be defeated to some degree, but
"Destroying the enemy's means without breaking his will leaves you with a less capable but still
hostile foe."64 The key to victory then, is to break the adversary's will.65 Modern examples that
support this theory include the seeds of World War II that were sown in the aftermath of World
War I. A bad peace significantly contributed to a second world war. This is also true of Operation
Iraqi Freedom and Operation Desert Storm. Both these conflicts destroyed a great deal of the
enemy's military capacity, but did not diminish the "defeated" powers' will. Failure to defeat
Germany and Iraq in the cognitive and moral domains set the conditions for future conflicts.
Because of the United States' Clausewitzian view that its military must defeat the
adversary's forces to impose its will, the United States will likely have difficulty with hybrid war
just as Israel did against Hezbollah in 2006, unless it adjusts its strategy. Ralph Peters noted,
63
64
65
Ibid.
23
"Israel fought as a limping stepchild of Clausewitz. Hezbollah fought as Sun Tzu's fanatical
son."66
The United States has found it very difficult to diminish the will of its adversaries
directly, though.67 This has led to U.S. targeting of the enemy's military means as a way to
indirectly influence the adversary's will. It may be more difficult to target adversaries' means in a
hybrid war because of the elusive and flexible forms they are likely to take. Also, a great deal of
the means employed in hybrid war affect the cognitive and moral domains, including attempts to
directly target their adversaries' will. Examples of this skill set include North Vietnamese use of
American media to directly target U.S. public will during the Vietnam War and the National
Liberation Front's use of newspapers and news magazines to directly target French public will
during the Algerian insurgency.
Most recently, irregular adversaries of the United States in the Middle East have used Al
Jazeerah, other news outlets, and the internet, to target both U.S. and Muslim will. These
examples of irregular threat "doctrine" illustrate the idea that hybrid war is indeed a hybrid of
different theories of war, as previously discussed. This direct-targeting mindset is antithetical to
the American way of war, grounded in Clausewitzian and Jominian ideas that call for defeat of
the enemy's military forces as the key to victory.
Author Michael Vlahos states that, "success is all about how our rule-sets mesh with the
enemy" with rule sets being how we, "do military operations, but also how we understand our
enterprise as a success."68 In fact, Vlahos maintains that, "enemy buy-in to our war frame has
66
Ralph Peters, "Lessons from Lebanon: The New Model Terrorist Army," Armed Forces Journal
(October, 2006), http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/10/2069044/ (accessed January 18, 2009).
67
Targeting the enemy's will directly typically requires direct targeting of the leadership and or
citizens of the adversary nation. The former is difficult due to U.S. policy as well as intelligence and force
requirements, the latter because the will of the people has shown to be very resilient to targeting. Examples
include targeting Saddam Hussein, a valid military command and control target, and the German people
during the Combined Bomber Offensive during World War II.
24
always been the critical and unacknowledged factor in American battle success."69 By comparing
Figure 3, the current U.S. theory of victory, to Figure 4, the hybrid war theory of victory, it is
clear that in hybrid war, the enemy's rule-sets do not match the United States rule-sets. As an
example, rule sets do not mesh in the Middle East today. This will present problems for the
United States if faced with a hybrid threat in the future. This is especially true if their rule-sets
make the United States' resistance to them beneficial for them and counterproductive for the
United States.70 The goal, then, is to develop a strategy that works to the U.S.' advantage, not
Figure 5. "How to Win" in Hybrid War
the adversaries’ advantage. Figure 5 describes a general framework of a strategy designed to
defeat a threat attempting to wage hybrid war. As retired U.S. Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel
Frank Hoffman explains, the United States understands how to design operational level strategies
for conventional enemies and is regaining understanding about how to design operational level
68
Michael Vlahos, "Fighting Identity: Why We Are Losing Our Wars," Military Review,
(November-December 2007): 4.
69
Ibid.
70
Michael Vlahos, 4.
25
strategies for irregular threats.71 The United States has not attempted to adapt a strategy to the
hybrid challenge, at the strategic or operational level. Sun Tzu's recommendations to attack the
enemy system will be used as a construct to develop a U.S. theory of victory in hybrid war.
Generally speaking, the theory of victory will attack the first three portions of the enemy
system. The preponderance of effort is allocated against the enemy strategy by being culturally
focused, having a strategy that supports the battle in the cognitive and moral domains, and
protects the U.S.' critical vulnerability, the public will. The U.S.’ hybrid war theory of victory
uses the appropriate elements of national power to attack enemy alliances and then its military.
This proposed strategy focuses on culture since identity is a significant factor in war
today.72 The intent is to understand the enemy and how the enemy understands himself, and thus
interacts with the environment. Additionally, technology should support the strategy, not the
other way around. The strategy uses all elements of national power, with the battle for the
cognitive domain being the enveloping, fully integrated theme. In essence, it is a decisive hybrid
approach supporting the battle for the cognitive and moral domains.
The strategy also calls for protection of the public will, the U.S.' critical vulnerability.
This is accomplished through honest and effective communication between civilian leadership,
senior military leadership, the American people and allies, as well as judicious use of the military
instrument. This strategy will allow the United States to influence the adversaries’ will so they
capitulate. Defining "what is winning" and turning it into lasting political gains is the next step.
71
Frank G. Hoffman, "Hybrid Warfare and Challengers." Joint Forces Quarterly. (1st Quarter
2009): 38.
72
Michael Vlahos, 11.
26
Theory Of Victory = How To Win + What Is Winning
"What Is Winning"
Determining "what is winning" is the most difficult portion of developing any theory of
victory and without it the senior decision maker's design is "woefully incomplete."73 Determining
"what is winning" may be even more difficult in hybrid war. The 2008/2009 Israeli war with
Hamas illustrates this difficulty. Steven Erlanger of the New York Times notes of the Israeli
problem, "it remains far from clear how to decide when to end the war, and what would constitute
victory."74
Generically, "winning" can be considered as the conditions set for the system of interest
to be self-regulating in the U.S.' best interest, for some explicit amount of time, without
undermining U.S. credibility, legitimacy, will, relationships, and resources. "Winning" is a
continuum, not a static end state, and must concentrate on long-term conditions vice short-term
gains. In other words, it is the vision of the complex system that the senior decision maker
desires. Former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Fred Charles Ikle , maintains that the most
decisive long-term influence on a conflict is how it concludes.75 How the conflict concludes is
dependant on conditions that are set well before hostilities begin. It is imperative then, to develop
the best understanding possible of "what is winning" before the conflict begins and to adapt as
necessary during hostilities.
As mentioned, the theory of victory is contextual and therefore is suitable for a number of
guiding principles vice rigid laws. Since national security literature does not widely address this
topic (the last act in the drama of war as described by Ikle ) a general theory of victory will be
73
Fred Charles Ikle , Every War Must End (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991), 1.
74
Steven Erlanger, "For Israel, 2006 Lessons but Old Pitfalls," The New York Times, 7 Jan 2009,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/world/middleeast/07military.html (accessed January 18, 2009).
75
Fred Charles Ikle , vii.
27
discussed and then hybrid war implications will be addressed using the general theory of victory
as comparison criteria.76
Victory is dependant on how one defines the problem, which senior leaders frame while
developing the resolution. The theory of victory for a certain conflict must be flexible and
dynamic, changing with the context and emergent problems, opportunities, and conditions of the
conflict. It is absolutely critical to make the theory of victory and its inherently dynamic nature
explicit so that senior leaders can manage expectations. Expectation management is crucial in a
democracy where the critical vulnerability is the people's will.
The theory of victory developed by senior leaders may be very broad, covering a large
number of different concepts that span the diplomatic, information, military, economic (DIME)
instruments of national power, in all three domains. As Bar-Yam maintains, complexity must be
met with complexity.77 It includes consideration of what the enemy theory of victory is postulated
to be, mission success criteria, clear military and national strategic objectives and desired states,
war termination criteria, conflict resolution, security, stability, and reconstruction efforts (if
necessary), U.S. domestic conditions, negotiating leverage, relationships, regional and
international institutions, post-war settlements, risk, and costs.78
76
Fred Charles Ikle , 4.
77
Yaneer Bar-Yam, Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World,
(Cambridge: Knowledge Press, 2004), 91.
78
Significantly, many think that conflict termination equals victory. As mentioned, conflict
termination is only part of a theory of victory. One example that illustrates this is the situation at the
"conclusion" of World War I. From a conventional sense, the conflict was terminated since the belligerents
stopped fighting one another (on a grand scale), but the Allies, while crowned victors, did not achieve
victory. Using Clausewitz’s framework for resistance as being the combination of means and will is
helpful. While a portion of Germany's means were exhausted, there was still a great deal of fighting means
left. Clearly, their will was not exhausted either. Many of the Allies realized that victory was not achieved.
An excerpt from John Mosier's book, "The Myth of the Great War" clearly shows this, "Petain realized-as
did Pershing-that Germany was nowhere beaten, nor would it be until the German Army had been...The
Germans, who wanted to preserve their army and their military cadre intact, saw an opportunity for doing
that by dealing with Wilson." John Mosier, The Myth of the Great War: A New Military History of World
War I (New York: Harper Collins Publishers, 2001), 335. Additionally, General Marshall commented that
28
Senior decision makers must understand, to the best of their ability, what the enemy's
theory of victory is, and incorporate this understanding into their own theory of victory. For
Hezbollah in 2006, survival meant victory. Understanding the logic that supports this theory, and
the subsequent enemy narrative, is critical in shaping one's own theory of victory. This will help
shape the friendly logic and narrative.79 It is also important to understand that the notion of
victory is cultural. This is especially true in the temporal dimension of the theory of victory as
Middle and Far Eastern cultures have a much different understanding of time than do Western
cultures.
Joint doctrine covers many of the other concepts encompassed in the theory of victory.
The risks and costs include determining the hazards of peace, not just the hazards of war.80 The
United States must maintain or restore its legitimacy and credibility. This is significant because
relationships with many different agents in the world system will change during and after the
conflict based on new realities. The United States must sustain its ability to deter, as well as
sustain its will and resources. Additionally, senior decision makers must strive to design a
resolution that provides the adversary system a positive attractor so that its propensity gravitates
towards the U.S. desired state. This will help ensure a greater threat does not emerge after the
initial problem is resolved.
he thought, "the Germans should have been sufficiently "licked" to scotch the myth that their government
accepted peace without defeat in the field." Forest C. Pogue, George C. Marshall: Education of a General
1880-1939, (New York: Viking Press, 1963), 193. It is also important to realize that these experiences
helped shape thinking about victory during World War II. The quest for German and Japanese
unconditional surrender in part stemmed from the World War I experience. General Omar Bradley, one of
the most successful U.S. Army commanders during World War II commented, "We shall never stop until
the [German] army is beaten and until the army knows it is beaten. I shall never discuss terms. I shall insist
on an unconditional surrender immediately." Carlo D'Este, Decision in Normandy (New York: E.P. Dutton,
Inc., 1983), 405.
79
The theory of victory will help inform the United States' strategic narrative that will be designed
to dominate the enemy's narrative. It is also important to understand that there will be two different
narratives from two different strategic cultures. Paradoxically, the narrative designed to fight against and
achieve political objectives against a hybrid warrior will use some of their logic against them.
80
29
Lieutenant General von der Goltz of the Prussian Army described a portion of "winning"
when he stated, "It is, above all things, necessary to satisfy ourselves as to whether our own
military power is sufficient, after victory on the battle-field, to cause the enemy's country to feel
the burden of war severely enough to desire a return to peace."81 However, von der Goltz's
concept is incomplete since warfare must serve war, not itself. Determining what the peace
should "look like" and why is a critical responsibility of the senior decision maker. Once again,
war is a strategic concept while warfare is a tactical concept. As an example, Napoleon was
undoubtedly one of the great military geniuses of all time. He was however, unable to turn
operational success into strategic long-term gains. Napoleon was an expert at warfare, not at the
conduct of war. As Ikle maintains, it is the outcome of war, not campaigns, that decides how well
the endeavor meets the national interests.82
Unfortunately, in the past, the United States has fallen into the same trap that Napoleon
fell into many times by not defining victory and working towards a strategic goal. Instead, the
American way of war, as described by Weigley, seeks to destroy the enemy's military instead of
serving as an extension of policy, as Clausewitz maintains.83 This mindset incorrectly equates
winning battles to winning wars and is based on a faulty concept of victory.84 Vietnam should
81
Freiherr Von der Goltz, The Conduct of War: A Short Treatise on its Most Important Branches
and Guiding Rules (London: Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner and Co, Ltd, 1908), 19. A recommended
modification to account for current context would be to substitute instruments of national power for
military, but it is an excellent summation of a significant portion of "what is winning."
82
83
Russell F. Weigley, The American Way of War: A History of United States Military Strategy
and Policy (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1973), xxii and Carl von Clausewitz, On War, 87.
84
Antulio J. Echevarria II, "Toward an American Way of War," (U.S. Army War College
Strategic Studies Institute Monograph, Carlisle Barracks, PA, March 2004), 2.
30
have proven this point and Iraq should have provided a reminder. Unfortunately, the American
way of war tends to ignore the difficult process of turning military success into strategic gains.85
This task is extremely difficult because it requires some level of predictive capability,
which is marginal at best in a complex wartime environment. The interconnectedness of the many
agents of this system, many of whom exhibit non-linear, complex behavior, make this an almost
impossible task both before and during engagement. It is important to at least weigh the
significant uncertainties to determine if it is advantageous to start a conflict or adopt another
approach to achieve political objectives.86
At the strategic level, victory means achieving political objectives and it is significant to
understand that perceptions matter. Each side will have their idea of what reality is and the total
of both sets of reality is not a zero-sum-game.87 Lebanese Brigadier General Hanna noted of
Hezbollah during Hezbollah's 2006 war with Israel that it may be impossible to truly judge
victory with an actor such as Hezbollah, also suggesting that Israel achieved no political goals.88
Another Lebanese officer, Lt Col Hany Nakhleh, stated that both sides thought they were winning
and therefore it was not easy to determine who the final winner and loser were.89 J. Boone
Bartholomees provides a useful scale (Figure 6) with which to conceptualize success. Using this
scale, Israel ends up in the "Not win" to "Lose" portion of Bartholomees' scale of success and
Hezbollah in the "Win" portion of the scale.
85
Ibid., 7.
86
87
Michael I. Handel, Masters of War: Classical Strategic Thought, 3rd ed. (New York: Frank
Cass Publishers, 2004), 197.
88
Elias Hanna, 89 and 86.
89
Hany T. Nakhleh, "The 2006 Israeli War on Lebanon: Analysis and Strategic Implications,"
(U.S. Army War College Strategy Research Project, 2007), 7.
31
Figure 6. Bartholomees' Scale of Success
Other recent examples of contested victories include the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the
First Gulf War. Both sides in both conflicts had very different concepts of who won. The
struggles and conflicts that followed suggest that formulating a theory of victory before and
during the conflict is paramount. As both Clausewitz and Galula describe, results of war are never
final.90 Also significant is the fact that one's opponent must both realize and admit their defeat.
The popular French resistance to von Moltke's advance to Paris in 1870 after the Prussians
soundly defeated the French army illustrates this concept of accepting defeat (or not).91
The concept of reconciliation is another important principle in determining what winning
is. The enemy must be defeated and they must understand they are defeated, but the enemy must
be treated well enough during deliberation at the end of a conflict. This mindset will avoid
unnecessary devastation that may lead to a loss of domestic and allied support, as well as create
new enemies.92 In a globalized world, this concept is critical. Bismarck is an excellent example of
a senior decision maker who understood that today's enemy has the potential to be tomorrow's
ally, and vice versa. History has shown that enemies are seldom permanent.93
90
Carl von Clausewitz, 80 and David Galula, Counterinsurgency War: Theory and Practice (St
Petersburg: Hailer Publishing, 1964), 137.
.
91
Brian Bond, 71-73.
92
Fred Charles Ikle , xi.
93
Ibid., 11.
32
During this process of determining "what is winning," it is critical to understand what the
enemy's value of the "object" is, as Clausewitz described.94 The enemy's logic will drive the value
of whatever "object" they fight for. Senior decision makers must also consider the U.S. value of
the "object". Current context influences both belligerents. One pertinent, current example is the
issue of Taiwan in relations between the United States and China, a potential challenger that
could attempt to wage hybrid war. Considering the current U.S. commitments to Iraq and
Afghanistan, as well as the current economic situation, Taiwan may mean more to China, who
considers Taiwan a legitimate part of its country, than to the United States. Understanding, to the
best of one's ability, the adversary's value of the "object" will help determine what the enemy's
idea of winning will be. This determination will comprise part of their logic, which will, in turn,
drives their strategic narrative. Understanding the enemy narrative follows Sun Tzu's admonition
that to be victorious requires one to know thy enemy.
When designing a theory of victory, senior decision makers must be flexible in their
thinking, as the theory of victory must be flexible. The U.S. Marine Corps Information Paper that
addresses hybrid war states that an organization must be "agile and adaptive in its approach."95
The understanding of "what is winning" is never a finished product because it is the result of a
flexible mindset that has the ability to be adjusted based on the current and anticipated context. It
is also important to realize, as Michael Handel points out, that, "even the best theory does not
hold all of the answers."96 It will only be a theory, not a rule, since it lives in the world of social
science. It is akin to a hypothesis that will be tested and modified again and again. As such,
94
95
U.S. Marine Corps, SVG Strategic Trends and Implications (Strategic Vision Group
Information Paper, 12 February 2008), 4.
96
Michael I. Handel, 43.
33
measures of success will help senior decision makers understand when to adjust the theory of
victory.
The theory of victory will also serve to generate dialogue between the political leadership
and senior military leadership to help fill the discourse space, as described by Kobi Michael.97
Filling this space will help generate the intellectual rigor that is vital to resolve the complex
problems that hybrid war presents. It will also help identify where, along the "victory
continuum," senior decision makers anticipate a conflict to culminate.
Figure 7. U.S. Hybrid War Theory of Victory
97
Kobi Michael, "The Dilemma Behind the Classical Dilemma of Civil-Military Relations: The
"Discourse Space" Model and the Israeli Case During the Oslo Process," Armed Forces and Society 33, no
4 (July 2007), 518. The discourse space is a construct developed by Kobi Michael to describe the thinking
and communication that is necessary to occur between political leaders and senior military officers. Filling
this "space" with appropriate dialogue and discussion will help lead to a shared understanding of the
situation and an effective way to resolve problems.
34
Who is responsible for designing a relevant concept of "what is winning" for the situation
of interest? It is the senior decision maker that develops and communicates this vision to all
applicable organizations in the friendly system. This common vision will provide the bounds for
all supporting strategies.
Differences In Hybrid War - "What Is Winning"
The principles of "what is winning" are useful criteria to compare and contrast the
concept of "what is winning" with respect to hybrid war. As previously mentioned, it is important
to understand that theories of victory are contextual. Each type of war will have a different theory
of victory, as will each conflict, regardless of what type of war it is. A theory of victory for an
irregular war will differ from a nuclear theory of victory. Also, the theory of victory for Iraq will
be different than the theory of victory for Afghanistan, the Philippines, or any other conflict that
may emerge.
Something as seemingly simple as defining the problem becomes part of the problem in
hybrid war. Because of its very nature, hybrid war presents a complex problem. Aspects of this
complexity include emphasis on the cognitive and moral domain, elusive form, true full spectrum
warfare, and a variety of different actors that combine to pose a different threat in each specific
scenario. These different aspects make it difficult to impose political control during the ensuing
peace. The different entities that comprise the overall hybrid threat in a certain conflict may have
different political concerns or none at all. Additionally, the different entities may fight for
different objects or place different values on the same objects they fight for. The United States
may affect one entity differently in the cognitive and moral domains than another.98
All these possibilities will lead to emerging hybrid strategies, making the senior decision
maker's job of understanding the adversary very difficult. Determining whose will matters most
98
These complexities may however, lead to tensions in the adversary system that can be exploited
by the United States.
35
and how to affect that will is problematic. It is clear that defining the problem in a hybrid war
must be the first task senior decision makers resolve.
While the senior leader attempts to define the problem hybrid war presents, he
simultaneously designs a resolution to the problem.99 Attaining victory in a hybrid war does not
necessarily mean solving a complex problem, but rather resolving a complex problem to an
acceptable level, as Rittel and Webber maintain.100 The senior decision maker must understand
that they may have to address the problem posed by a hybrid war at a later time, but often in a
different manner because the context has changed. The goal is to inject energy into the system to
work with the system's propensities and potential to drive it into a self-regulating state.
The U.S. Army Commander's Appreciation and Campaign Design (CACD) concept
describes a self-regulating system as one that requires no outside interference or control.101 It is
more helpful to understand a self-regulating state as a continuum that exists in the U.S.' zone of
tolerance, instead of the absolute concept that CACD recommends. The senior decision maker
must make this zone of tolerance explicit before hostilities begin and remain flexible during the
conflict.
99
Rittel and Webber maintain that in order to describe and understand a "wicked" or complex
problem, one must simultaneously develop possible resolutions to the problem. "Problem understanding
and problem resolution are concomitant to each other." Horst W. J. Rittel and Melvin M. Webber,
"Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning," (modified paper presented to the Panel on Policy Sciences,
American Association for the Advancement of Science, Boston, MA, December, 1969), 161.
100
Rittel and Webber also maintain that problems cannot be solved, but resolved. "Social
problems are never solved. At best they are only re-solved—over and over again." Since war is social
relationship between belligerents, there can never be a perfect solution to war. Human nature and the
complexity inherent in human behavior means that the problem one attempts to solve will most likely
surface again, albeit in another form. Horst W. J. Rittel and Melvin M. Webber, 160.
101
U.S. Army, Commander's Appreciation and Campaign Design, TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5-
500, Fort Monroe, VA: Headquarters Department of the Army Training and Doctrine Command, 28
January 2008, 42.
36
Often, as the current U.S. situation in Iraq illustrates, the definition of problem resolution
becomes "good enough" as time, patience, and resources are expended.102 Many factors
contribute to the concept of problem resolution. These factors may be internal to the adversary
system, internal to the friendly system, or external to both. For example, another problem with a
higher priority may emerge, similar to the anticipated shift of emphasis from the Iraqi Area of
Operations to the Afghan Area of Operations. The perception that the situation in Afghanistan (a
perceived higher threat to U.S. national interests) is deteriorating, while the situation in Iraq
appears to be stabilizing, helps cause the Iraq situation to emerge as being resolved.
Additionally, since complex problems can only be resolved, not solved, victory has a
temporal aspect because the understanding of it changes over time. While military success may
be readily apparent, as Ikle states, the verdict will emerge later in the political arena.103 This is
mainly because senior decision makers can never truly understand the whole system and are
unable to predict causality in much of the system. What many consider victory at one time may
not constitute victory later as more understanding or second and third order effects emerge. Thus,
complex causal relationships contribute to an infinite time horizon.
Therefore, victory is a long-term concept, not a short-term one. It may not be permanent,
or perfect. The emergence of the Cold War after "successful" termination of World War II is one
example of this concept since the Allied theory of victory did not include half of Europe
dominated by communism, in addition to communism's incipient spread around the world
Once again, Bartholemees' scale of success is useful in evaluating where along the
conflict continuum a hybrid war may lie, both before and during the conflict. This evaluation
must match the senior decision maker's zone of tolerance or else that senior leader must adjust the
zone of tolerance. Due to many aspects of hybrid war discussed in the "how to win" chapter, the
102
Horst W. J. Rittel and Melvin M. Webber, 162.
103
Fred Charles Ikle , viii.
37
evaluation of the conflict may be further to the left of the continuum than the United States is
used to. The disparity between these rule-sets in hybrid war and those of the United States make
the outcome of a conflict less certain than previous conflicts and therefore puts the United States
in unfamiliar territory.
If a hybrid war is necessary, it is critical for the senior decision maker to set and manage
expectations. These expectations include those of the legislature, military, inter-agency, and the
American public. Communicating these expectations, as well as the concept that the expectations
may change as the conflict progresses, is an important part of the senior decision maker's task.
The senior decision maker's ability to articulate these concepts may be the difference between
attaining victory and not attaining victory as American will ebbs and flows over the course of the
conflict. The senior decision maker must set the domestic strategic conditions to maintain the will
and support of the people, or support a shift in the mindset of the American people if that will has
begun to erode.
As discussed earlier, understanding the enemy's theory of victory and culture is
paramount. This is extremely difficult in a hybrid war because the enemy system is complex and
adaptive. It may include state, non-state, and even criminal actors. This will make understanding
hybrid war even more difficult and thus defining a theory of victory difficult as well. As in the
case of Hezbollah in 2006, survival of the movement meant victory. How will the United States
develop a theory of victory against an enemy whose will may be extremely difficult to target, its
elusive form may prevent decisive military victory, and its concept of "what is winning" is simply
survival? An adversary of this nature may be successful against the United States because of who
the United States is and what survival in the context of their theory of victory means.104 These
ideas will force the United States to also become adaptive if it wishes to prevail.
104
Michael Vlahos, 5.
38
Additionally, because of the emphasis on the cognitive and moral domains in hybrid war,
defining victory in the minds of many different audiences will be a complex, challenging task. As
noted earlier, perceptions matter. Even determining whose perceptions matter is a difficult
prospect. Once again, the strategic outcome of the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah war is open to debate.
As time progresses, there has even been debate on whether Russia was actually victorious against
Georgia in 2008.105
Conclusion
Michael Evans describes the current complex world as a bifurcated strategic environment
that demands full spectrum strategy.106 Additionally, as Michele Flournoy, Under Secretary of
Defense for Policy, and Shawn Brimley state, "Hybrid warfare will be a defining feature of the
future security environment."107 Nowhere is this more significant than in the task of developing a
theory of victory. A theory of victory is the foundation of any approach to solving a political
problem with military means, and is different for each type of war and each individual conflict. It
105
Although Russia may have achieved tactical success against Georgia in August 2008, many are
beginning to consider the invasion a strategic loss for Russia. "Yet, while Russia won the war in tactical
and operational terms, it is fast becoming clear to Moscow-as it should have been before the war-that
Russia's strategic losses are mounting and will in time eclipse the gains Russia obtained through the use of
force." Also noted by Blank, " those who...actually use force, may initially crown themselves victors in
such conflicts. Moscow may convince itself that it has won a war in Georgia, but it has actually opened a
Pandora's Box of cascading negative effects." Stephen J. Blank, "Georgia: The War Russia Lost," Military
Review (November-December 2008): 39 and 46. Additionally, U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice
maintains that Russia has already paid for its overreach into Georgia. She stated that, "Russia's reputation
as a potential partner in international institutions - diplomatic, political, security, economic, is frankly in
tatters." U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, interview on NBC Meet the Press,
August 18, 2008. http://www.america.gov/st/texttransenglish/2008/August/
20080818162102bpuh0.257107.html. (accessed January 22, 2009). An important question is whether the
Russians agree with these assessments.
106
Michael Evans, "From the Long Peace to the Long War: Armed Conflict and Military
Education and Training in the 21st Century,” 9.
107
Michele A. Flournoy and Shawn Brimley, "The Defense Inheritance: Challenge and Choices
for the Next Pentagon Team," Washington Quarterly (Autumn 2008): 63.
39
is the intellectual framework that allows the United States to "seal the strategic deal" and should
encompass many different concepts, many of which are already outlined in different contexts.
It appears the United States may be preparing itself to fight the last war. Ironically, this
very mindset is typically what the military is heavily critiqued for, and rightly so. It is exactly this
type of single mode of warfare mindset that led to many of the problems during the early stages
of the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, only then it was a conventional warfare mindset that
hindered successful operations. Counterinsurgency warfare may be shaping the current generation
of American officers' experiences and mindsets, possibly leading to an imbalanced perspective of
the future. Even the President's defense agenda explicitly outlines stability and counterinsurgency
national security challenges as "21st century tasks."108 It does not mention hybrid or even nuclear
threats.
There are others who believe conventional adversaries will threaten the United States in
the future. Both these "camps" are incorrect and exemplify an exclusive attitude instead of a
necessarily balanced inclusive attitude. The United States must prepare itself to meet myriad
challenges, irregular, nuclear, conventional, and hybrid. Implementing an approach to counter
these different threats is admittedly difficult. It will require a great deal of intellectual rigor,
vision, compromise, and cooperation among many agents in the United States national security
system to be successful in today's challenging security environment.
The emerging theme in today's complex security environment is the significance of the
cognitive and moral domains. Modern history has witnessed the ultimate aim of military activity,
achieving political gains, change many times. The military objective has changed from simply
outmaneuvering the opponent, to taking territory, to the Jominian and Clausewitzian ideals of
108
Additionally, when discussing defense programs, the President outlines being ready to fight
only conventional, stability, and counterinsurgency threats. Barak Obama, "2009 National Defense
Agenda," http://www.whitehouse.gov/agenda/defense (accessed January 29, 2009).
40
destroying the enemy's armed forces.109 It may well be transitioning in the 21st century to the
ability to defeat an adversary in the cognitive and moral domains without defeating them in the
physical domain.
Arguably, the ability to defeat an adversary in the cognitive and moral domains has
always been key to counterinsurgency, but it also has strong potential to be the key for other
forms of war such as hybrid war. There has been a noticeable shift in enemies of the United
States from the primacy of military operations supported very little by information operations, to
information operations supported by military operations.110 There are some in the United States
military, such as U.S. Army Colonel William Darley, who favor this approach as well.111
Emphasizing the cognitive and moral domains in certain contexts may be one key to a sound
strategic theory of victory in a hybrid war.112 It is worth the time and effort to investigate this
concept for possible use in U.S. military endeavors. This mindset shift would also help the United
States move away from a way of battle to a true way of war by concentrating intellectual rigor on
developing a theory of victory both before and during a conflict.
109
Freiherr Von der Goltz, 5 and Azar Gat, The Origins of Military Thought from the
Enlightenment to Clausewitz (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1989), 115.
110
T.X. Hammes, "Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges," 14.
111
William M. Darley, "Clausewitz's Theory of War and Information Operations." Joint Forces
Quarterly 40, (1st Quarter 2006): 78.
112
Although elements of all three domains are constantly interacting and influencing one another,
there are times when one domain may be predominant. While it may be impossible to objectively measure
this, many practitioners and theoreticians have made subjective judgments. Napoleon commented that the
moral is the physical as three is to one, quoted in J.F.C.Fuller, 134. While this may not be a definitive rule,
it may be the case in certain contexts. James Schneider commented that, "the moral element of combat
remains decisive because in essence combat remains a clash of wills." James Schneider, 2. Clausewitz
discusses moral factors and elements, which he states, "are among the most important in war" and, "the
physical seem little more than the wooden hilt, while the moral factors are the precious metal, the real
weapon, the finely-honed blade." Carl von Clausewitz, 184-185. J.F.C. Fuller states, "Mental force does not
win a war; moral force does not win a war, physical force does not win a war; but what does win a war is
the highest combination of these three forces acting as one force." J.F.C. Fuller, 146. A significant task for
the senior decision maker (as well as the operational artist) is to determine what that combination is.
41
Considering the identity and meaning of different agents in the system is also critical.
This will ensure these issues are made explicit. Defeating adversaries waging hybrid war will
demand the consideration of both the U.S. and enemy identity and meaning from multiple
different perspectives.
Another significant aspect of developing a theory of victory with respect to the
complexities hybrid war presents is that the United States must meet these complexities with its
own complexities. This threat calls for a joint, multi-agency approach that exhibits distributed
organization and capabilities across multiple domains. It also necessitates an understanding of
hybrid war at all three levels of war that leads to relevant intellectual rigor, as well as action.
Fighting a hybrid war threat using the threat's hybrid war concepts against them seems to have
potential. As Brig Gen (R) Shimon Naveh states, "complex problems tend to be resolved by
combined methods."113
The United States has been historically slow to respect its enemies and their type of
war.114 This is a danger in a hybrid war, because the consequences could be grave. There have
been many significant modern failures of strategy formulation, including the British invasion of
the Dardanelles in 1915, as depicted in The Perils of Amateur Strategy, and the U.S. conflict in
Vietnam.115 Developing a sound theory of victory may prevent failures of this magnitude in the
113
Shimon Naveh, In Pursuit of Military Excellence: The Evolution of Operational Theory, (New
York: Frank Cass, 1997), 50.
114
Colin S. Gray, "Defining and Achieving Decisive Victory," 29.
115
In 1915, in order to break the stalemate on the Western front and relieve pressure on Russia on
the Eastern front, the Allies (mainly a British effort) attempted an ill-fated invasion of Gallipoli Peninsula.
It was designed to control the strait so the British navy could open a Sea Line of Communication to Russia,
as well as attack Istanbul and induce the garrison there to revolt, thus ending Turkish involvement and
providing a new axis with which to attack Germany. This effort was quickly mired down and resulted in
significant loss of Allied manpower, resources, and credibility. It was mainly the result of faulty strategic
and operational thinking. Sir Gerald Ellison, The Perils of Amateur Strategy: As Exemplified by the Attack
on the Dardanelles Fortress in 1915 (New York: Longmans, Green, and Co. Ltd., 1926).
42
future by helping to frame and resolve the problem effectively and efficiently, or to prevent
military involvement in the conflict from the beginning.
In a recent speech to the National War College, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
briefly addressed hybrid war as a possibility, but focused on the tactical aspects.116 Later in the
speech he discussed, in general, the concepts of humility and the understanding of one's limits.
Connecting these two concepts with hybrid war may be the key to framing a sound theory of
victory. Interestingly, the United States military has added restraint to its Principles of War.
While engaged in a hybrid war, this is exactly what may help define the U.S. theory of victory
since the costs may be too high for the benefits associated with victory.
Developing a sound theory of victory may also lead to a more realistic and disciplined
use of the U.S. military and a demilitarization of U.S. foreign policy. There may be situations
where the United States can apply military force, but should not. A sound theory of victory will
help identify these situations. There may also be situations, like the opening vignette describes,
when the United States is compelled to act. Developing a theory of victory for these situations
will increase the chances that strategic objectives are met.
Recommendations
This paper recommends that the hybrid war theory of victory outlined earlier serve as
starting point for an expanded and improved theory of victory for consideration in the event of a
hybrid war. In order to accomplish this, the United States must undertake many efforts. As
Brigadier General Krause states, "War takes preparation, whether it is the production of
equipment, the training and readiness of forces, or the strategy and policies that guide action."117
116
Robert Gates, U.S. Secretary of Defense, Speech to the National Defense University,
Washington, D.C., September 29, 2008.
117
Michael G. Krause, "Square Pegs for Round Holes: Current Approaches to Future War and the
Need to Adapt." Land War Studies Center Working Paper No. 132, Duntroon Australia, June 2007, 2.
43
Part of that preparation is developing a theory of victory for the many threats the United
States faces. Areas of future study include developing general theories of victory for other threats,
such as irregular and nuclear, the United States might face. An additional recommended area of
future study is U.S. ability to deter adversaries from conducting hybrid war.
In order to efficiently and effectively develop a hybrid war theory of victory, the National
Security, National Defense, and National Military Strategies must explicitly address hybrid war.
This will serve to legitimize the concept and provide the motivation for many other study efforts.
For this endeavor to be effective however, a commonly accepted understanding of the concept
must be established. Currently, there are many different definitions and understandings of hybrid
war, which only serve to confuse the debate.118
Additionally, further intellectual rigor in the cognitive domain must be expended on the
hybrid war concept. This includes published and unpublished papers, journal articles, and books
on the topic. Including hybrid war in secondary education curriculum is also warranted.
Symposiums and conferences on hybrid war would be beneficial to expand the dialogue. From
the "how to win" side of the equation, the United States Marine Corps appears to be a likely
candidate to facilitate this type of activity. Various think tanks would be the logical choice to host
events for thinking through the "what is winning" side of the theory of victory equation.
Another intellectual endeavor that would pay large dividends would be to establish an
Advanced Studies Group (ASG) type school for senior elected and appointed national security
decision makers and general officers. This school is intended to educate senior decision makers as
the ASG schools intend to educate operational art experts. This would go a long way in
118
In addition to the two definitions discussed in this paper, another example in a recent Joint
Force Quarterly article is, "the simultaneous and intertwined application of conventional and irregular
methods to achieve strategic objectives." Kenneth C. Coons Jr. and Glenn M. Harned, "Irregular Warfare is
Warfare," Joint Force Quarterly (1st Quarter 2009), 103.
44
developing strategic coup d' oeil, similar in concept to Napoleon and Patton's operational level
coup d' oeil. Bismarck would be an example worthy of emulation at such a school.
One problem with thinking about and developing a theory of victory is the lack of an
explicit process or approach with which to frame it. Emerging concepts like "Design" in its many
forms may have an application in designing a theory of victory. A design approach may enable an
explicit description and explanation of what the problem actually is, what the desired state could
and should "look like", what the theory of victory should be, and a strategy to achieve it.
Approaches to problem framing and resolving such as design may help to achieve decisive
strategic victory.
The United States' response to hybrid war will require it to meet complexity with
complexity. This will require a whole of government approach that is very difficult for the United
States to coordinate, plan, and deconflict. Much ink has been spilt of late with regards to
improving inter-agency efforts; time will tell if any of these efforts prove fruitful.
Considering the perceived United States' military focus on the physical domain and its
Jominian and Clausewitzian attitude towards defeating enemy forces, future adversaries' use of
the cognitive and moral domains in hybrid war will challenge the United States. Strategic
communication, public affairs, and information operations become critical and must be fully
integrated for from the outset. They must be truly integrated into everything the military does and
first, second, and third order effects of all actions must be considered. The use of information
operations must be an overarching theme in any inter-agency approach in a hybrid war. The
United States must improve its ability to fight in the cognitive and moral domains, or as Frank
Hoffman espouses, "maneuver in the virtual dimension to achieve a positional advantage in the
population's collective mind."119 The notion of information operations supported by kinetic
119
Frank G. Hoffman, "Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars," Potomac Institute
for Policy Studies Monograph, Arlington, VA, December 2007, 53.
45
operations espoused by Colonel Darley is a concept with potential because, as earlier noted by
Colonel Hammes, this is the way future adversaries will approach hybrid war.
It is possible the American strategic paradigm must reorient to give more emphasis to the
cognitive and moral domains, just as potential enemies' paradigms have changed. It may be time
to learn and adapt to the enemy's way of war with an increase in the effective use of the cognitive
and moral domains. A good example is Hezbollah's use of the media in 2006 against Israel,
described as a force multiplier to complement their asymmetric advantages.120 Zawihiri's (al
Qaeda's number two in command) comment that, "more than half of the Islamists' battle 'is taking
place in the battlefield [emphasis added] of the media," is evidence of the importance current
enemies place on the cognitive and moral domains.121
Lawrence Freedman, speaking of irregular warfare, a component of hybrid war,
commented, "superiority in the physical environment is of little value unless it can be translated
into an advantage in the information environment...Our enemies have skillfully adapted to
fighting wars in today's media age, but for the most part we, our country, our government, has
not."122 It is evident that enemies of the United States have not just adapted to fighting in today's
information age, they have defined fighting in today's information age.
Efforts must also be made to incorporate more constructive strategic guidance and
interaction between political decision makers and senior military officers, especially operational
level commanders. Better involvement by political leaders during military action and better
involvement by military commanders during policy consideration that impacts military operations
is necessary to ensure that war remains an extension of policy. There has typically been reticence
120
Sarah E. Kreps, 80.
121
Ibid.
122
Col Doug King, USMC, "Hybrid War" (presentation to the Defense Science Board, 24 May
2007) quoted in Mackubin Thomas Owens, 70.
46
in both the U.S. political and military communities to mix the two spheres of influence, and for
good reason. This demarcation, however, has led to a bifurcation of strategic thought that
contributes greatly to an American way of battle vice an American way of war.123
Improving operational level doctrine would help develop a theory of victory as well. By
incorporating the previously mentioned principles, doctrine would exist to guide operational level
commanders and staffs in their campaign designs and planning of major operations with respect
to a theory of victory. Current doctrine is exceedingly vague with respect to many critical
concepts such as mission success criteria and conflict termination.124 As Ikle notes, "the question
of terminating a war ought to arise as soon as the war has begun, or, indeed, in any advance
planning."125
The U.S. military must spend additional energy at the operational and tactical levels of
war as well.126 TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5-500, Commander's Appreciation and Campaign
Design, states that, "future violent conflicts are more likely to reflect what British General Rupert
Smith has called 'war amongst the people.'"127 It goes on to assert that even wars that begin as
conventional state versus state conflicts, such as Operation Iraqi Freedom, are likely to involve
aspects of irregular warfare.128 While these documents address the challenges of internal, irregular
123
Antulio J. Echevarria, II, 7.
124
U.S. Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joint Operations, Joint Publication (JP)
3-0 change 1, Washington, DC: CJCS, 17 September 2006 (Change 1, 13 February 2008), IV-5-IV-8
U.S. Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Operation Planning, Joint Publication (JP) 5-
0, Washington, DC: CJCS, 26 December 2006, III-27.
125
Fred Charles Ikle , 15-16.
126
Another recommended area for future study is how operational art, or thinking operationally to
translate strategic guidance into effective tactical tasks, as well as linking tactical outcomes to strategic
success, is different in the context of a hybrid war.
127
U.S. Army, Commander's Appreciation and Campaign Design, 4 and Rupert Smith, The Utility
of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World (New York: Vintage Books, 2007), xiii.
128
Ibid.
47
warfare, they also describe many aspects of hybrid war as well. The military could make slight
modifications to shift the focus to the hybrid war threat so that the ideas in these documents are
applicable to an external threat.
The value of developing a hybrid war theory of victory, an evolving type of war, cannot
be overstated. By undertaking these recommendations, a necessary mindset shift towards an
American way of war will be accomplished. As Ikle reminds us, "the purposes for which wars
are fought can only be realized beyond the fighting."129
129
48
FIGURES
1. Hybrid War Complexity Continuum..................................................................................... 9

2. Hybrid War and Threat Categories...................................................................................... 18
3. Current U.S. Theory of Victory........................................................................................... 19
4. Hybrid War Challenger Theory of Victory.......................................................................... 20
5. "How to Win" in Hybrid War.............................................................................................. 25
6. Bartholomees' Scale of Success........................................................................................... 32
7. U.S. Hybrid War Theory of Victory.................................................................................... 34
49
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Title of Monograph: Strategic Implications of Hybrid War: A Theory of Victory

__________________________________ Monograph Director

Surface to surface missiles rain down on Saudi Arabia.

Simultaneously, Iran attacks much of the Saudi oil infrastructure causing an

businesses. An intense information operations campaign ensues, seeking to gather Muslim

its key allies compels the United States to take action.

combine a range of different modes of warfare, including conventional capabilities, irregular

achieve objectives at all levels of war.

going to be a blurring, a further blurring, of war categories."4

division into distinct categories, symmetry and asymmetry."5

the concept of the U.S. theory of victory?

A theory of victory is a cognitive theoretical framework within which senior decision

As an example, aspects of a hybrid challenger were evident during Russia's struggle

battles.19 The determination of undisputed victory in that war is still unresolved.20

best “Ways” to achieve strategic objectives and protect national interests.

States' theory of victory with respect to hybrid war.

According to The American Heritage Dictionary, "hybrid" is "something of mixed origin or

increase the complexity of the situation.

Figure 1. Hybrid War Complexity Continuum

purpose of war, is pursued for political objectives.28

changing the very nature of war.

few. War, therefore, can be considered a strategic concept.

include conventional, irregular, information, cyber, nuclear, and economic.

opponents approximately 40 percent of the time since World War II.32

First, threats attempting to generate a hybrid war environment seem to understand

vulnerability in the future by attacking in the cognitive and moral domains.

understanding, a key point when attacking in the cognitive domain.36

importance of changing form, appropriately adapting to conflict situations by the employment of

be key aspects of Sun Tzu's teachings that emerge in hybrid war.39

of a military focused theory of victory.

in influencing different agents in the system.

Warfare focuses exclusively on internal threats or irregular threats, as categorized by U.S.

spectrum of capabilities and implications.46

A theory of victory is a cognitive theoretical framework within which senior decision

uses scales to describe the concept.50 It can also be described as a continuum.

perception regarding the eventual outcome actually is.

Victory, then, is very subjective. Bartholomees suggests that victory is an assessment

Theory Of Victory = How To Win + What Is Winning

Figure 2. 2005 Hybrid War and Threat Categories

of victory in a hybrid war.

Figure 3 illustrates a paradigm where technology-driven, conventional, joint forces attack

outcome will become even more difficult in hybrid war.

Figure 3. Current U.S. Theory of Victory

Figure 4. Hybrid War Challenger Theory of Victory

support for the political establishment.61

possibility of achieving strategic effects.

Canal is evidence of this difficulty.62

available, advanced off-the-shelf armaments eliminates the United States' near-monopoly on

improvised explosive devices by guerrilla fighters in 2006 is an excellent example of this

blending at the tactical level.