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PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIAN
TELECOMMUNICATION COMPANIES
CONDUCTED TO FULLFILL BIG PAPER PROJECT OF
PORTFOLIO THEORY AND INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
By:
AGUSTINUS DWI P. AKT – 252165
(REGULER STUDENTS)
FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY
YOGYAKARTA – INDONESIA
JUNE 2010
PREFACE
This research will describe about the comparison of stock performance among
telecommunication companies in Indonesia. This research is conducted to know how the
comparison of stock performance among telecommunication companies in Indonesia as the
competition in telecommunication industry is high.
The researcher thanks to Mr. Prof. Dr. Jogiyanto Hartono M., M. B. A., Akt as the
lecturer who always gives direction and motivation.
This research still has weakness. Any suggestion, critics, and recommendation are highly
expected.
The Researcher
PREFACE _______________________________________________________________ii
Introduction______________________________________________________________ 1
Background of the research _________________________________________________ 1
Research Question ________________________________________________________ 1
Objectives _______________________________________________________________ 1
Literature Review _________________________________________________________ 2
Telecommunication industry _____________________________________________________ 2
Stock _______________________________________________________________________ 2
Historical Price and Historical Return ______________________________________________ 2
Measuring Stock Performance____________________________________________________ 2
Expected return (E(Ri)) _____________________________________________________________ 3
Risk_____________________________________________________________________________ 3
Coefficients of Variation ____________________________________________________________ 4
Methodology _____________________________________________________________ 4
Research Design ______________________________________________________________ 4
Population ___________________________________________________________________ 5
Sampling ____________________________________________________________________ 5
Data Collection Instrument ______________________________________________________ 5
Data Analysis_________________________________________________________________ 5
Limitation ___________________________________________________________________ 5
Discussion and Analysis ____________________________________________________ 6
Overview of TLKM. Jk. ________________________________________________________ 6
Overview of ISAT. JK__________________________________________________________ 8
Overview of EXCL. JK ________________________________________________________ 10
Overview of BTEL. JK ________________________________________________________ 12
Overview of FREN. JK ________________________________________________________ 14
Overview of Industry__________________________________________________________ 16
Conclusion _____________________________________________________________ 19
References ______________________________________________________________ 20
Portfolio and Investment Analysis Big Paper: Research Report Page iii
Introduction
The advance of telecommunication technology triggers the changes of the way people
communicate. They not only do communicate with telephone but also do with the mobile, smart
phones, i-phones, and etc. When using those devices, they need cellular card and they should
recharge the deposit. The more deposits they recharge the more profit will the telecommunication
companies achieve.
Research Question
Based on background of the research above, the research question will be:
• how is the comparison of stock performance among telecommunication companies in
Indonesia?
Objectives
Based on background of the research above, the objectives of this research are to:
1. Compare the stock performance among telecommunication companies in Indonesia
2. To help investors compare the stock performance among telecommunication companies in
Indonesia
3. To full fill the big paper project of Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis Lecture
Telecommunication industry
According to economy watch.com, telecommunication industry deals with the activities and
services of electronic systems for transmitting messages and information through cables, telephone,
radio or television, radio or television, and internet.
Stock
InvestorWords.com states that stock is an instrument that signifies an ownership position (called
equity) in a corporation, and represents a claim on its proportional share in the corporation's assets
and profits. Ownership in the company is determined by the number of shares a person owns
divided by the total number of shares outstanding.
Where:
Pt is current price of Stock
Pt-1 is last price of stock
D1 is Current dividend.
Where:
E (Ri) is expected return for assets i
Rij is the future result at j period of assets i
pj is the future probability of the result at j period of assets i
• Based on Historical Value
There are three methods in measuring expected return based on historical data. They are:
1. Mean method which assumes that expected return is equal to its historical average
value.
2. Trend method which consider the growth of the stock.
3. Random walk method which assumes that the data distribution of return is so random
that it is difficult to predict. Hence this method predicts that the expected return will be
equal to the last return.
• Based on Expected Return Modael that uses single price index model involving CAPM.
Risk
Van Home and Wachowics, Jr (1992) define risk as variability of return to expected return. To
measure risk standard deviation is widely used. The formula is:
a. If probability is used, then the risk is measured as follows.
Where:
Where :
Xi is value of return i,
E(Xi) is expected return,
n is the number of observation of historical data and for sample less than 30,
n – 1 is used.
Coefficients of Variation
Coefficient of variation (CV) is used to decide factor of risk and expected return simultaneously.
This is measured as follows.
the interpretation of CV is that the less the value of the CV, the better performance of the stock.
Methodology
The methodology section of this research contains research design, population, sampling method,
data collection instrument, data analysis, and limitation which are described as follows.
Research Design
This research is about to compare the stock performance of telecommunication industry in
Indonesia. Accordingly, the research will be designed to achieve the objectives set out by the
industry in Indonesia.
Sampling
In this sampling section The researcher use purposive sampling method that take 5 (five)
telecommunication companies in Indonesia which listed in LQ 45 Indonesian Stock Exchange. The
companies are PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. (TLKM. Jk), PT Indosat Tbk. (ISAT. Jk), PT
Exelcomindo Axiata Tbk (EXCL. Jk), PT Mobile-8 (FREN. Jk), and PT Bakrie Telecoms (BTEL.
Jk.)
Data Analysis
The researcher use comparison analysis to evaluate the stock performance of companies observed.
The comparison revolves about expected return, risk, and coefficients of variation. The researcher
determines which company has the best stock performance by using coefficients of variation.
Limitation
The researcher cannot cover all of the telecommunication companies in Indonesia. The research
will therefore be restricted to those five listed companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Risk of TLKM.JK
3.500%
3.000%
2.500%
2.000%
1.500%
1.000%
0.500%
0.000%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Risk
Based on table and chart above, the stock risk of TLKM. JK is 2.166% on the average. The risk also
fluctuates from year to year. The significant increasing happens in 2008 (2.987%). The risk decreases
gradually from 2.987% to level 2.178% in 2009 and to level 1.692% (the minimum one) in 2010. This could
be positive signal for inventors to choose TLKM. Jk for their portfolio.
0.200%
0.100%
0.000%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-0.100%
-0.200%
Expected Return
Those chart show the movement of expected return of TLKM. JK. The graph shows that a
gradually decrease of TLKM. JK. expected return from 2006 up to 2008 (From 0.239% in 2006 to
0.031% in 2007, to -0.081% in 2008). The significant increase happens in 2009 (0.175%) and decrease
again in 2010 (-0.139%). The average expected return is 0.045%.
Based on those chart, the trend from 2006 up to 2010 tends to decreasing.
CV TLKM. Jk
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0.000
-20.000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-40.000
-60.000
CV
The graph of CV TLKM Jk is fluctuated. The CV is 8.467 in 2006, 8.467 in 2007, -36.750 in 2008,
12.460 in 2009, and -12.185 in 2010. The CV is 6.876 on average. The decreasing trend of the CV indicates
the decreasing risk of this stock in the future.
Risk of ISAT.JK
5.000%
4.000%
3.000%
2.000%
1.000%
0.000%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Risk
According to the table and chart above, the risk of stock ISAT. JK is 2.270% in 2006, 2.634% in 2007,
4.174% in 2008, 2.434% in 2009, and 2.452% in 2010. The risk is 2.793% on average with the highest risk
is 4.174% in 2008 and the lowest risk is 2.270% in 2007. The risk’s trend from 2006 to 2010 tends to
increasing.
0.100%
0.050%
0.000%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-0.050%
-0.100%
Expected Return
According to table and chart above, same as TLKM.JK the movement of expected return of
ISAT.JK is also fluctuated. The expected return is 0.118% in 2006, 0.137% in 2007, -0.087% in 2008, -
0.038% in 2009, and 0.078% in 2010. The average is 0.042%. The minimum is -0.087% in 2008 and the
maximum is 0.137% in 2007.
CV of ISAT.JK
40.000
20.000
0.000
-20.000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-40.000
-60.000
-80.000
CV
According to table and chart above, same as TLKM.JK the movement of CV of ISAT.JK is also
fluctuated. The CV is 19.188 in 2006, 19.241 in 2007, -48.198 in 2008, -64.744 in 2009, and 31.414 in
2010. The average is -8.620. The minimum is - 64.74 in 2008 and the maximum is 31.41 in 2007.
Risk of EXCL.JK
10.000%
8.000%
6.000%
4.000%
2.000%
0.000%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Risk
From the table and chart above, is shown that the risk of EXCL.Jk is gradually increasing during
2006 with the climax in 2009 (2.822% in 2006, 3.062% in 2007, 3.360% in 2008, and 9.487% in 2009)
After that year, exactly in 2010, the risk is drastically decreasing to level 5.021%. Overall, the risk is
4.750% on average with the minimum risk 2.822% in 2006 and with the maximum 9.487% in 2009.
The trend of the risk from 2006 to 2010 tends to increasing.
-0.400%
Expected Return
From the table and chart above, the expected return of EXCL.Jk is gradually decreasing during
2006 – 2007 (0.046% in 2006 to 0.020% in 2007) and significantly decreasing to level -0.303% in 2008.
However, the stock rises so drastically in 2009 to level 0.736% and to level 0.748% in 2010. Overall, the
expected return is 0.249% on the average, with the minimum at level -0.303% in 2008 and with the
maximum at the level 0.748% in 2009.
CV of EXCL.JK
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
0.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-50.000
CV
From the chart and table above, the CV of EXCL . Jk. is fluctuated. The crucial point is in 2007
where it is the highest point and in 2008 where it is the lowest point. The CV is 60.697 in 2006,
154.758 in 2007, -11.079 in 2008, 12.893 in 2009, and 6.714 in 2010. Overall, the CV is 44.797 on the
average.
Risk of BTEL.JK
6.000%
5.000%
4.000%
3.000%
2.000%
1.000%
0.000%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Risk
From the chart and the table above, the risk of BTEL. JK is gradually increasing from 2006 – 2009.
(2.520% in 2006, 3.657% in 2007, 4.237% in 2008, and 4.987% in 2009. The significant decrease is in 2010
from level 4.987% to level 2.394%. Overall, the stock has risk 3.559% on average, with the minimum level
of 2.394% in 2010, and with the maximum level of 4.987% in 2010. The trend of this stock from 2006 to
2010 tends to increasing.
From the table and chart above, the movement of expected return of BTEL. JK is random walk.
The expected return is 0.226% in 2006, 0.283% in 2007, -0.816% in 2008, 0.559% in 2009, 0.121% in
2010. Overall, the average of the expected return is 0.075%, with the minimum level of -0.816% in 2008,
and the maximum level of 0.559% in 2009.
CV of BTEL.JK
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0.000
-5.000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-10.000
CV
From the table and chart above, the CV of BTEL. JK is 11.130 in 2006, 12.924 in 2007, -5.193 in
2008, 8.918 in 2009, 19.715 in 2010. Overall, the average of the CV is 9.499 with the minimum level of -
0.816% in 2008, and the maximum level of -5.193 in 2010. The trend of the CV from 2006 to 2010 tends to
increasing.
Risk of FREN.JK
7.000%
6.000%
5.000%
4.000%
3.000%
2.000%
1.000%
0.000%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Risk
From the chart and the table above, the risk of FREN. JK is 3.294% in 2006, 2.326% in 2007, 5.932%
in 2008, 4.993% in 2009, and 0.271% in 2010. The significant increase is in 2007 from the level of 2.326%
up to 2008 from the level of 5.932%. On the other hand, The significant decrease also happens from 2009 to
2010 at the level of 4.993% in 2009 to the level of 0.271 in 2010. Overall, the stock has risk 3.363% on
average, with the minimum level of 0.271% in 2010, and with the maximum level of 5.932% in 2010.
-0.400%
-0.600%
-0.800%
Expected Return
The expected return of FREN. JK is decreasing from 2006 to 2008 (0.721% in 2006, -0.059% in 2007,
and -0.555% in 2008). The value is increasing in 2009 from the level of -0.555% to 0.111% but decrease to
zero point one year later. Overall, the average of expected return is 0.044%.
CV of FREN.JK
800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
-
-100.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
CV
The graph above shows the CV of FREN. JK. The crucial point is from 2008 to 2009 where the CV
is drastically increasing. The CV of each year is 4.57 in 2006, - 39.21 in 2007, - 10.69 in 2008, 45.01
in 2009, and 745.69 in 2010. The CV has value of 149.07 on average, with minimum value of - 39.21 and
maximum value of 745.69
The table above shows comparison every aspect of stock performance. Those aspects are Risk
which contain standard of deviation and variance, expected return, and CV. Every aspects: Risk
(Standard of Deviation), expected Return, and CV is also represented in these charts below.
0.5000%
0.0000%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-0.5000%
-1.0000%
TLKM.JK ISAT.JK EXCL.JK
FREN.JK BTEL.JK
Comparasion of CV
800
600
400
200
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-200
TLKM.JK ISAT.JK EXCL.JK
FREN.JK BTEL.JK
Risk Comparison
BTEL.JK 3.559%
FREN.JK 3.363%
EXCL.JK
4.750%
ISAT.JK 2.793%
TLKM.JK 2.166%
E(Ri) Comparison
BTEL.JK 0.075%
FREN.JK 0.044%
EXCL.JK 0.249%
ISAT.JK 0.042%
TLKM.JK 0.045%
FREN.JK 149.0745842
EXCL.JK 44.79650894
-
ISAT.JK
8.619651365
TLKM.JK 6.876169683
Based on the table and charts above, beginning from the risk aspect, TLKM.JK has the lowest
value. It means that TLKM.JK has the lowest risk while EXCL. JK has the highest value that
means EXCL.JK has the highest risk.
From the expected return aspect, EXCL. Jk has the highest value that means EXCL.JK has the
expected return. The lowest value is ISAT.Jk that only has value of 0.042%.
From CV Aspect, FREN.Jk Jk has the highest value that means FREN.JK is worst in performance.
On the other hand, ISAT. JK has the lowest value that means ISAT. JK is best in performance.
Conclusion
From the data and analysis above, it could be concluded that:
• TLKM. JK has the lowest risk while EXCL. JK has the highest risk
• ISAT. JK has the lowest expected return while EXCL. JK has the highest expected return.
• FREN.JK is worst performance while ISAT.JK is best performance.
The weakness of this research is that the researcher only uses a few number of companies with a
few number of periods observed. It is suggested for next researcher to add the number of
companies and number of periods observed to increase the accuracy.