You are on page 1of 2

Economic indicators for last decade

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GDP $M 91094 97180 106427 123679 141669 171222 186205 193241 202616 221000
GDP growth % 6.3 5.3 6.8 6 5 5.4 6 6.7 6.2 6.8
Inflation (CPI) % 23.1 7.1 8.9 18.7 9.1 6.6 4.1 0.9 2.7 3.5
Unemployment % 2.4 - - 2 - 2 1.9 2.1 2.2

Foreign direct investment % of GDP 10.5 7.8 7.5 6 - 5.2 4.9 6.1 6.2
Export growth % 5 11.1 14.7 12.2 11 17.4 11.6 12.6 13.9 21.6
Import growth % 7.6 6.7 14.1 3.5 9.7 17.3 12.8 18.1 15.3 21.4
Current account balance $M -10823 -6608 -4276 236 9062 7745 9359 906 8235 6400

Public debt % of GDP 42.9 51.2 54 50.8 52.1 51.8 55.1 57.3 60.7
External debt $M 24954.2 28717.7 49343.1 57840.5 - 65452 72429.8 77827.4 86952.5
Total debt service $M 1321.1 1216.8 2795.4 3395.7 - 4515.8 6720.5 6622.3 7342

Sources (as of October 2017): The World Bank, World Development Indicators | International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook | Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Military Expenditure Database.

Economic Performance of Vietnam in 2018

Vietnam's economic growth momentum remains robust and is accompanied by broad


macroeconomic stability. Recent growth was driven by a cyclical increase in global demand as
well as a recovery in investment from FDI and private sector, and an ongoing shift of labor away
from agriculture into more productive manufacturing and service sectors.
According to Vietnam's economy World Bank, this year's growth forecast to remain 6.8% higher
than the figure of 6.3 % forecast for emerging market economies in East Asia and Pacific.

In the medium term, Vietnam's growth is expected to follow a global trend - declining to 6.6%
and 6.5% for 2019 and 2020. Inflation is still maintained at 4% due to Monetary policy will be
tightened.

Real GDP expanded nearly 7.4 percent during the first quarter of 2018, benefiting from a
favorable external environment, with global GDP growth expected to peak at 3.1 percent in
2018. Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is expected to slow down slightly to 6.3 percent
this year, reflecting a continued slowdown in China.

Vietnam’s trade balance continued to improve owing to strong trade performance and FDI
inflows, contributing to the overall current account surplus, estimated at 6.8 percent of GDP (Q1
2018). The exchange rate has been relatively stable while reserves continued to rise, reaching
about US$63 billion in the first 4 months of 2018, equal to around 3.6 months of imports.

Against the backdrop of low inflation, monetary policy remains accommodative. Vietnam’s
consumer price index has been ticking up slightly at 2.8 percent (year on year) in the April 2018,
driven by electricity and health services price hikes. Rapid credit growth and abundant liquidity
could worsen volatility in Vietnam's financial markets, especially against the anticipated
tightening of global monetary conditions. Public debt has stabilized since 2017, with an overall
fiscal deficit of 4.5 percent of GDP, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 61.4 percent in
2017 from 63.6 percent in 2016.

Vietnam’s medium-term outlook has improved further since the last Taking Stock release in
December 2017. Real GDP is projected to expand by 6.8 percent this year (up from 6.5 percent
in the previous forecast) before moderating to 6.6 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent in 2020, due
to an expected slowdown in global demand. Inflation is expected to remain around the 4
percent government target. The current account balance is projected to remain in surplus, but
could start narrowing next year, reflecting widening deficits on the income and services
accounts. Fiscal deficits and public debt are expected to be under control.

Despite improved short term prospects, risks remain significant. Domestically, slower progress
in restructuring state-owned enterprises and banking sectors could adversely impact the macro-
financial situation, undermine growth prospects, and create large public-sector liabilities.
External risks include escalating trade protectionism, heightened geopolitical tensions and
faster-than-expected monetary tightening which could lead to disorderly financial market
movements.

As an open economy, Vietnam needs to maintain monetary policy with resilience, flexible
exchange rates and low budget overspending to improve its ability to withstand possible
shocks."