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POSTNOTE
Number 507 September 2015
Crime Patterns and Measurement Figure 1. Trends in Total Offences in England and Wales
Crime in the UK is reported to be falling; a trend seen since 20
Number of offences (millions)
Crime Data
Establishing a meaningful and accurate picture of crime challenging. Third, changes to criminal law make it difficult
patterns is challenging for several reasons. First, there is a to compare crime statistics over time. Moreover, the Public
gap between the number of crimes committed and those Accounts Select Committee recently found that police
reported.10 Second, crime data come from numerous recorded crime (PRC) exaggerated falling crime rates, and
sources, each with different strengths and weaknesses (Box raised concerns over the misreporting of sexual offences.11
1). No single dataset accurately captures trends across all In response, the UK Statistics Authority removed the
offences, regions, or how frequently different groups commit designation of ‘National Statistics’ from PRC data.11
or are victims of crime. Methodological differences make Changes in police crime recording practices have followed,
combining or comparing data from different sources which is likely to have affected PRC rates.
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POSTnote 507 September 2015 Trends in Crime and Criminal Justice Page 2
Box 1. Measuring Crime antisocial behaviour and low-risk offending.23 The proportion
Police Recorded Crime (PRC) is data taken from police forces’ of offences brought to justice outside courts increased from
recording systems.12,13 23% in 2003 to 40% in 2008,23 but has since declined.24 A
Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) measures the review in 2010 suggested that the use of such disposals
extent of crime in England and Wales by asking people whether may reflect a ‘widening of the net’, where matters that might
they have experienced any crime in the past year, which includes have previously resulted in no criminal sanction are being
offences that might not have been reported to the police.14
National Violence Surveillance Network (NVSN) uses A&E data dealt with formally.23,25 Concerns have been expressed
on injuries from violent assaults, which may not be reported to the about their efficiency and a lack of public confidence in their
police.15 use.24,26 In response, reforms to improve consistency in the
Court Databases (such as LIBRA or CREST) provide statistics way which they are applied have recently been proposed.26
on prosecutions, convictions and sentencing, including offences
where there has been no police involvement, such as prosecutions Custodial Sentencing: Practice and Guidelines
instigated by organisations or individuals.
Despite an overall trend towards falling crime, the prison
Commercial Victimisation Survey collects data on crimes against
retail, agriculture and service sector businesses.16 population is rising, see Figure 2.27 The factors underlying
Action Fraud is the UK’s crime reporting centre for individuals and this trend are complex, but it is thought that it reflects longer
businesses to report scams, fraud or cyber crime.17 sentences for some offences, a more serious mix of
offences (violence against the person, drug offences and
PRC and CSEW are the two main crime datasets used in England and sexual offences) coming before the courts and an increasing
Wales. Since they are sensitive to, and measure different types of
likelihood of imprisonment for breaches of non-custodial
crime, they are best used together.14 Additional measures can be
used to fill the gaps for specific crime types, for example the NVSN is sentences or licences.27 The increase in prisoners serving
particularly important for understanding violent crime as it does not longer sentences, and in the number of recalls to prison, is
rely on individuals reporting offences.18 Variation in reporting rates for thought to be a significant driver of the rising custodial
different offences to the police is thought to reflect victims’ perceptions population. There is also a trend towards an increasing
of crime severity, and also pragmatic factors, such as the need for number of shorter sentences.27
crime reference numbers for insurance claims.11 Crime reporting in
the media and shifting public opinion may also influence the likelihood
that people will report a crime to the police. Following the Jimmy Figure 2. Growth in the Prison Population
Saville revelations and Operation Yewtree, most police forces in the 100
UK recorded increased reporting of sexual offences.19 This is likely to
number in custody (thousands)
90
reflect a narrowing of the gap between actual and reported crime.
80
70
rehabilitation providers, and opened the market to the representation.82 The Law Society (an independent
private, voluntary and community sectors. Thirty-five professional body for solicitors) has argued that the cuts will
individual Probation Trusts have been replaced by a drive skilled advocates away, and that many criminal legal
National Probation Service responsible for high-risk aid firms may be at risk. The Joint Committee on Human
offenders. Twenty-one Community Rehabilitation Rights has concerns regarding the restriction of legal aid for
Companies (CRCs) manage low- and medium-risk the custodial population83 and the MoJ has been urged by
offenders69 and supervise those released from short term the Law Society to review the impact of the changes.82
sentences (12 months or less) under the new Offender
Rehabilitation Act.70 CRCs must achieve an agreed Fitness to Plead and Criminal Responsibility
reduction in the number of offenders and also offences The Law Commission proposes reform of the law on ‘fitness
committed by their clients. Although the principle of to plead’, which outlines what should happen when a
evaluation on the basis of rehabilitative outcomes has been defendant who faces prosecution is unable to engage with
welcomed, many see the shift in delivery model as a the process because of poor mental or physical health.84
challenge.71,72 It may be more complicated to manage, as The reforms aim to modernise legislation, ensuring the
offenders may move between risk categories.73 The priority process of detecting ‘fitness’ is sensitive to a range of
placed on performance targets for reducing re-offending has difficulties and subtle impairments. They will also maximise
also been critiqued as a short-term solution, at odds with a an individual’s opportunity to have a fair trial by ensuring the
longer-term desistance approach of offender behaviour courts are flexible in supporting a defendant’s needs, and
change and full community re-integration.74 that a broader, more tailored range of criminal justice
outcomes are available. Whilst there are associated costs, it
Criminal Justice Providers is also anticipated that there will be long-term savings, via
Recent MoJ figures show that private corporations, public reduced pressure on health and social care services and a
sector agencies, charities and social enterprises, have reduction in further trials or incarcerations.84, 85
formed partnerships to deliver prison and probation
services,69 but commentators note that none of the preferred Victims’ Rights
bid leads are from the voluntary sector.73,75 However, it is There is a trend to give victims a greater role in justice.
argued that the size of the contracts and the financial risks Judges are instructed to explain in ordinary language the
involved make it difficult for the voluntary sector to lead reasons for, and effect of a sentence; the charity Victim
contracts, or to partner large private sector Support has recommended that judges should also write to
organisations.75,76 Public sector criminal justice agencies are victims after a conviction, setting out what the sentence
under-represented, but by comparison have extensive means and what further involvement to expect, and
experience, offer job stability, provide training and career additional support for child witnesses and victims. 86 A 2015
progression, resulting in stable and cohesive workforces.77 survey by the Victims’ Commissioner found nearly 75% of
victims were unhappy with the criminal justice agency
Some argue that private contracts are associated with service they received.86 Proposals include enshrining the
prison disorder, under-staffing or inexperienced right to make a Victim Personal Statement in law, providing
workforces.78 Such challenges have also been attributed to information on restorative justice and improved complaints
a larger problem with establishing and running new, large processes.87 The Crown Prosecution Service has also
prisons, and Treasury budget cuts.79 In 2013, the MoJ conducted a survey and consultation about their services for
identified significant overbilling in its electronic monitoring victims and witness at court; the report is due in 2015.88
contracts with G4S and Serco. A subsequent review partly
attributed this to poor governance and record keeping.80 The Procedural Justice
National Audit Office suggests that contracting-out can Procedural Justice is a legitimacy-based approach to
improve services and be cost-effective, but that success criminal justice. In policing practice, it advocates police
depends on government oversight and monitoring.80 officers to act with fairness and respect when interacting
Moreover, the divergence between the public and private with the public.89 A recent survey found that perceived
sectors may be overestimated, as boundaries between them police legitimacy is an important factor in motivating the
blur, because of movement of personnel between them and public to co-operate with police; people who thought the
subsequent cross-over of policies and practices.77 police were on the ‘same side’ as them were significantly
less likely to say they had committed an offence and more
Access to and Participation in Justice, Equality likely to say they would help the police.90 A study examining
and Rights the impact of the 2011 London riots on attitudes towards the
Legal Aid police, found that confidence was lowest in areas most
In 2013, the MoJ announced legal aid cuts, removing one- affected, before and after the disorder.91 However, recent
third of the criminal case budget.81 The final proposals work examining the public’s attitudes towards the police
involve fixed legal fees, with cuts of 17.5%.81 The number of found that individuals perceived police action very
contracts for solicitors providing 24-hour cover at police differently, suggesting that legitimacy is a complex
stations has also been reduced from 1,600 to 527, which concept.92
some argue will leave those in custody without
POST is an office of both Houses of Parliament, charged with providing independent and balanced analysis of policy issues that have a basis in science and technology.
POST is grateful to Leila Jameel for researching this briefing, to the ESRC for funding her parliamentary fellowship, and to all contributors and reviewers. For further
information on this subject, please contact the co-author, Dr Sarah Bunn. Parliamentary Copyright 2015. Image copyright istockphoto.
POSTnote 507 September 2015 Trends in Crime and Criminal Justice Page 5
Endnotes
1 Making Sense of Crime, Sense About Science, 2015 41 Review of Efficiency in Criminal Proceedings, The Rt Hon Sir Brian Leveson,
2 Crime Statistics Release 2013/14, Focus on Property Crime, Office for National
President of the Queen’s Bench Division, Judiciary of England and Wales,
Statistics, November 2014 January 2015
3 Farrell, G. (2013). Five Tests for a Theory of the Crime Drop, Crime 42 Sir Brian Leveson, Keynote Lecture, ‘Modernising Justice Through
Science, 2, 5 Technology’, 24 June 2015. A copy of the speech was provided by the
4 POSTnote number 500, Towards 2020 and Beyond, June 2015
conference organisers.
5 Key Issues for the 2015 Parliament, House of Commons Library, June 2015 43 Understanding Tribunal Decision-Making: A Foundational Empirical Study,
6 Library Standard Note 5832, Cyber Security - A New National Programme,
Preliminary Report, by Professor Cheryl Thomas and Dame Hazel Glen,
House of Commons Library, June 2011 Nuffield Foundation, 2013
7 College of Policing analysis: Estimating demand on the police service, College 44 Impact of Special Measures on Jury Decision-Making, Nuffield Foundation
of Policing, January 2015 45 How to Achieve More Effective Services: the Evidence Ecosystem, Jonathan
8 Cyber Crime: A Review of the Evidence, Home Office, October 2013
Shepherd, What Works Network, June 2014
9 The House of Commons Library publishes regular briefings on crime and crime 46 Sherman, L. W. (2009) Evidence and Liberty: The Promise of Experimental
statistics Criminology. Criminology and Criminal Justice, 9(1), 5-28
10 Skogan, W.G. (1977). Dimensions of the Dark Figure of Unreported Crime, 47 Welsh, B.C. & Farrington, D.P. (2008). Effects of Closed Circuit Television
Crime & Delinquency, 23(1), 41-50 Surveillance on Crime. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 2008(17)
11 Caught Red-Handed: Why we can’t Count on Police Recorded Crime Statistics, 48 Bennett, T., Holloway, K., Farrington, D.P. (2008). The Effectiveness of
House of Commons Public Administration Select Committee, 13th Report of Neighbourhood Watch Campbell Systematic Reviews, 2008(18)
Session 2013-14, April 2014 49 Tong, L.S.J. & Farrington, D.P. (2006). How Effective is the ‘‘Reasoning and
12 Office for National Statistics, Guidance and Methodology, Police Recorded
Rehabilitation’’ Programme in Reducing Reoffending? A Meta-analysis of
Crime Evaluations in four Countries. Psychology, Crime & Law, 12(1), 3-24
13 Statistics of Crime in England and Wales, Produced by the Office for National 50 Reducing Drug Use, Reducing Reoffending: Are Programmes for Problem
Statistics, Assessment Report 268, UK Statistics Authority, January 2014. Drug-using Offenders in the UK Supported by the Evidence? UK Drug Policy
14 Office for National Statistics, Crime Survey for England and Wales
Commission, March 2008
15 Sivarajasingam, V., Page, N., Morgan, P., Matthews, K., Moore, S., Shepher, J. 51 Cheliotis, L. K. & Jordanoska, A. (forthcoming). The Arts of
(2014) Trends in community violence in England and Wales 2005–2009. Injury, Desistance: Assessing the Role of Arts-based Programmes in Reducing
45(3), 592-598 Reoffending. Howard Journal of Criminal Justice
16 Crime against businesses: Headline Findings from the 2013 Commercial 52 Duwe, G., & Clark, V. (2014). The Effects of Prison-based Educational
Victimisation Survey, Home Office, February 2014 Programming on Recidivism and Employment. The Prison Journal, 94(4), 454-
17 Action Fraud www.actionfraud.police.uk/
478
18 Florence, C., Shepherd, J., Brennan, I., & Simon, T. (2011). Effectiveness of 53 Kim, R. H., & Clark, D. (2013). The Effect of Prison-based College Education
anonymised information sharing and use in health service, police, and local Programs on Recidivism: Propensity Score Matching approach. Journal of
government partnership for preventing violence related injury: experimental Criminal Justice, 41(3), 196-204
study and time series analysis. British Medical Journal, 342 54 Hough, M. (2010). Gold Standard or Fool’s Gold: The Pursuit of Certainty in
19 Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending September 2014, Office for National
Experimental Criminology. Criminology Criminal Justice, 10(1),11-22
Statistics Statistical Bulletin, January 2015 55 Evidence for Social Policy and Practice. Perspectives on How Research and
20 Millie, A., Jacobson, J. & Hough, M. (2003). Understanding the Growth in the
Evidence Can Influence Decision Making in Public Services. Nesta, April 2011.
Prison Population in England and Wales, Criminal Justice, 3(4), 369-387 56 What Counts as Good Evidence? Provocation Paper for the Alliance for Useful
21 Compendium of United Nations Standards and Norms in Crime Prevention and
Evidence, by Sandra Nutley, Alison Powell & Huw Davies from the Research
Criminal Justice, United Nations, 2011 Unit for Research Utilisation, School of Management, University of St Andrews,
22 Police Cautions, Warnings and Penalty Notices www.gov.uk/caution-warning-
February 2013
penalty 57 Probation Institute - http://probation-institute.org/
23 Initial Findings from a Review of the Use of Out-of-Court Disposals, A report by 58 College of Policing - http://www.college.police.uk
The Office for Criminal Reform, February 2010 59 Supporting High-risk Victims of Domestic Violence: A Review of
24 Out-of-Court Disposals, House of Commons Home Affairs Select Committee
Multi-Agency Risk Assessment Conferences (MARACs), by
14th Report of Session 2014–15, March 2015 Nerissa Steel, Laura Blakeborough & Sian Nicholas, Research Report 55,
25 For more information, please see POSTnote number 308, Alternatives to
Home Office, July 2011
Custodial Sentencing 60 Research into Multi-Agency Risk Assessment Conferences (MARACs), Home
26 Consultation on Out of Court Disposals, Home Office, November, 2014.
Office Violent and Youth Crime Prevention Unit and Research and Analysis
27 Story of the Prison Population: 1993-2012 England and Wales, Ministry of
Unit, July 2011
Justice, 2013 61 Listening to Troubled Families, A report by Louise Casey CB, Department for
28 Sentencing Illegalities, Examination of Cases from England and Wales Court of
Communities and Local Government, July 2012
Appeal 2012, Robert Banks, January 2013 62 Working with Troubled Families, A Guide to the Evidence and Good Practice,
29 Sentencing Paper: Issues Paper 1 - Transition, Law Commission, July 2015.
Department for Communities and Local Government, December 2012
30 The Electronic Monitoring of Adult Offenders, House of Commons Public 63 Health Related Work in Family Intervention Projects, Final report
Accounts Select Committee, 62nd Report of Session 2005-06, July 2006. from the Thomas Coram Research Unit, Institute of Education,
31 Probation Institute Press Release on Electronic Monitoring, 23rd April 2015
University of London, by Janet Boddy, June Statham,
32 Hucklesby, A. (2008). Vehicles of Desistance? The Impact of Electronically
Ian Warwick, Katie Hollingworth, & Grace Spencer, April 2012
Monitored Curfew Orders. Criminology and Criminal Justice, 8(1), 51-71 64 Evaluation of the Troubled Families, by National Institute of Economic and
33 Hucklesby, A. (2009). Understanding Offenders' Compliance: A Case Study of
Social Research, due end of 2015
Electronically Monitored Curfew Orders. Journal of Law and Society, 36(2), 65 Domestic Violence, Forced Marriage and “Honour”-Based Violence, House of
248-271 Commons Home Affairs Select Committee, 6th Report of Session 2007-08, May
34 For more information, see POSTnote 488, The Darknet and Online Anonymity
2008
35 Cyber Crime Strategy, Home Office, March 2010
66 Joined-up Justice: Integrating the System, Reform, Tuesday 17th April 2012.
36 The UK Cyber Security Strategy: Protecting and Promoting the UK in a Digital
67 For more information on collaboration in criminal justice see the various
World. Cabinet Office, November 2011 publications and projects at Collaborative Justice -
37 For more information see POSTnote 470 Big Data, Crime and Security
http://www.collaborativejustice.org/home.htm
38 Braga, A., Papachristos, A., & Hureau, D. (2012). Hot Spots Policing Effects on
68 For information on the proposals, responses and final strategy see the MoJ
Crime, Campbell Systematic Reviews, 2012(8) Consultation page on Transforming Rehabilitation
39 Operation Beck: A Randomised Controlled Trial on Proactive Policing in
69 Library Standard Note 6894, Contracting Out of Probation Services - What’s
London Underground Platform Hotspots, Provided by Assistant Chief Happened So Far? House of Commons Library, January 2015
Constable Mark Newton and Charlotte de Brito, British Transport Police. 70 Offender Rehabilitation Act 2014
40 For a briefing on police body-worn video see POSTbrief 14, Body-Worn Video
71 Crime Reduction Policies: a Co-ordinated Approach? House of Commons
in UK Policing Justice Select Committee, Interim report on the Government's Transforming
Rehabilitation Programme, 12th Report of Session 2013–14, January 2014
The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 7 Millbank, London SW1P 3JA; Tel: 020 7219 2840; email: post@parliament.uk www.parliament.uk/post
POSTnote 507 September 2015 Trends in Crime and Criminal Justice Page 6