V Position Uncertainty

Uncertainty Introduction
What is Position Uncertainty?
• The calculated position of the wellpath is the product of 3 measurements: depth,
inclination & azimuth
• ALL measurements have error, including our depth, inclination & azimuth
• We quantify those errors statistically, to arrive at typical system performance
specifications
• The resulting measurement uncertainties are fed into a Survey Tool Error Model,
which calculates their effect on wellbore position

What Is Uncertainty?
Survey Tool Error Models
• We have an error model for every survey & MWD system that the company
provides
• The error models output a volume of uncertainty surrounding the calculated
wellpath
• Therefore the calculated wellpath is only the most probable path of the well
• The volume of uncertainty takes the shape of an irregular cone, generally centered
on the wellpath and increasing in size with increasing depth

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Ellipsoid of Uncertainty
• For any particular point on the well path, the position uncertainty is represented
by an ellipsoid
• The position uncertainty takes the form of a “probability cloud”, with the highest
probability being close to the calculated position, decreasing as we move out from
that point
• The ellipsoid dimensions are calculated such that a specified percentage of all the
possible well path positions are encompassed by the ellipsoid
• Our default is 2 standard deviations, or 95% probability along any one axis.
Also referred to as 2σ
• For anti-collision monitoring, it is common to use 3σ

Implications of Uncertainty
A valid estimate of Position Uncertainty is necessary for us to be confident that we will
• Hit the geological target (target sizing)
• Not hit any nearby wells (anti-collision)
• Be able to accurately intersect our well in the event that it blows out (relief well
planning)

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Variables Affecting Uncertainty
Uncertainty is dependent on many variables, but the most significant are:
• Type of survey tool
• Wellbore inclination
• Wellbore azimuth
• Geographic location
Our error models include sensitivity to these variables, as summarized in the following
pages

Surveying Techniques Uncertainty

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North Seeking Gyro Tool Uncertainty

Position Uncertainty Review

Position Uncertainty & the BHI Policy for Calculating It

• Uncertainty is most significant in proximity drilling, geological target constraints,
and relief well drilling
• Because position uncertainty can be along any of 3 axes, it is represented as an
ellipsoid
• Our policy is to report position uncertainty at 2 standard deviations
• Position uncertainty varies by survey tool and by factors suc as latitude,
inclination & azimuth

Well path design, and monitoring of progress, takes into account position uncertainty
• It is best practice to include position uncertainty when planning & drilling wells
• Our directional drilling software facilitates this practice, incorporating error
models for each of our directional survey tools
• Quality control of survey tools and survey data must ensure that actual
performance conforms to the model

Gross Errors
• Survey tool error models presume that calibrated tools are used, that standard
operating procedures are applied, and that no operator errors occur
• A failure in any of these areas is a mistake or “gross error” and is not accounted
for in the model

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• Gross errors therefore invalidate the error model predictions, with serious
implications for collision monitoring and target penetration
• The wellbore positioning training module is part of our drive to reduce the
incidence of gross error to zero

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