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All eyes on thermal coal supply in Indonesia’s Daily prompt physical thermal coal assessments, Feb 15
thermal coal production after a few missed domestic market quotas FOB Richards Bay 5,500 NAR 7-45 day AAXEX00 59.85 +3.20
and they foresee Kalimantan prices edging higher in the near term, Australia
market sources said Friday. FOB Newcastle 20% Ash 5,500 NAR 7-45 day AAVUW00 61.80 0.00
An Indonesia-based trader heard a trade concluded Thursday for a FOB Newcastle 23% Ash 5,500 NAR 7-45 day AAVVB00 60.20 0.00
gearless-vessel cargo of Indonesian 4,200 kcal/kg GAR thermal coal FOB Newcastle Ash Differential AAVVA00 0.52
(continued on page 12) FOB Newcastle 6,300 GAR 7-45 day CSNCB00 87.10 +0.50
Indonesia
FOB Kalimantan (Geared Supramax) 4,200 GAR 7-45 day CSBKI00 35.75 +0.25
News Headlines FOB Kalimantan (Geared Supramax) 3,800 GAR 7-45 day CSCKJ00 28.65 +0.15
FOB Kalimantan (Geared Supramax) 5,900 GAR 90-day CSAKH00 71.40 +0.10
Thermal coal buyers in Turkey look to domestic market FOB Kalimantan (Geared Supramax) 5,000 GAR 90-day CSAKI00 55.30 +0.10
■■Currency exchange unsupportive for international deals
India
■■Moroccan tender launched
CFR India West (Gearless Panamax) 5,500 NAR 30-60 day CIWCI00 67.15 -0.95
ITOCHU divests from Australian thermal coal mine CFR India West (Gearless Panamax) 5,000 GAR 30-60 day TCAKP00 63.75 +0.30
CFR India West (Gearless Panamax) 4,200 GAR 30-60 day TCAKT00 44.20 +0.45
■■ITOCHU’s stake was 12.5%
CFR India West (Geared Supramax) 3,800 GAR 30-60 day TCAKR00 38.25 +0.40
■■Company will no longer invest in new coal-fired projects
CFR India East (Gearless Panamax) 5,500 NAR 30-60 day CIECI00 67.35 -0.95
Coal stocks at Indian power plants rise CFR India East (Gearless Panamax) 5,000 GAR 30-60 day TCAKJ00 63.00 +0.30
to 22.64 million mt CFR India East (Gearless Panamax) 4,200 GAR 30-60 day TCAKU00 43.45 +0.45
CFR India East (Geared Supramax) 3,800 GAR 30-60 day TCAKS00 36.65 +0.40
■■Stock levels up 148% on-year
■■Imported thermal coal stocks peak at 705,000 mt CV (kcal/kg) Window Platts symbol $/mt Chg
China
PCC 1 (FOB Qinhuangdao) 5,500 NAR 7-45 day PCCQH00 88.11* +0.70
PCC 2 (FOB Qinhuangdao) 5,000 NAR 7-45 day PCCPN00 76.86* +0.71
FOB RUSSIA FOB COLOMBIA COAL vs DELIVERED NEAT PCC 6 (CFR South China) 3,800 NAR 30-60 day PCCPQ00 42.25 +0.15
BASIS 5,750 kcal/kg PCC 7 (CFR South China) 4,700 NAR 30-60 day PCCPP00 61.90 +0.10
($/mt)
120 PCC 8 (CFR South China) 5,500 NAR 15-60 day PCCSC00 68.25 0.00
Yuan/mt
PCC 1 (FOB Qinhuangdao) 5,500 NAR 7-45 day PCCQG00 595.00* +5.00
100 PCC 2 (FOB Qinhuangdao) 5,000 NAR 7-45 day PCCPM00 519.00* +5.00
PCC 6 (CFR South China) 3,800 NAR 30-60 day PCCPR00 285.31 +1.13
Russia
PCC 6 (VAT included) 3,800 NAR 30-60 day PCCPS00 330.96 +1.31
80 NEAT PCC 7 (CFR South China) 4,700 NAR 30-60 day PCCPO00 418.00 +0.85
PCC 7 (VAT included) 4,700 NAR 30-60 day PCCFB00 484.88 +0.99
Colombia
PCC 8 (CFR South China) 5,500 NAR 15-60 day PCCSD00 460.88 +0.19
60 PCC 8 (Duty & VAT included) 5,500 NAR 15-60 day PCCFA00 534.62 +0.22
Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19
Source: S&P Global Platts *Includes VAT
www.platts.com www.twitter.com/PlattsCoal
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
Delivered-Europe thermal coal price rebounds Weekly prompt physical thermal coal prices, Feb 15
Code CV Basis Sulfur $/mt Chg
on day despite overall bear expectations (kcal/kg)
CIF Turkey CTCMT04 6,000 NAR 0.8% 85.00 -1.00
■■Sentiment bearish through the end of March FOB Colombia CSABZ00 6,000 NAR 0.8% 71.00 -2.00
FOB Russia Baltic CSAKC00 6,000 NAR 0.5% 66.55 -1.00
■■Futures recover ground on day, follows power, oil
FOB Russia Pacific CSAKG00 6,300 GAR 0.3% 92.00 -3.00
London—The delivered-Europe thermal coal market remained under FOB USEC Baltimore CUAAA04 6,944 NAR 2.6% 74.00 -1.00
negative pressure Friday as concerns of oversupply and weaker FOB USEC Hampton Roads CUABA04 6,667 NAR 1.0% 93.65 +0.15
FOB USGC New Orleans CUACA04 6,111 NAR 2.9% 55.00 -2.04
demand persisted in both Atlantic and Pacific basins, although lower
Normalized
wind forecasts in the near-term added some positive sentiment at the
FOB USEC Baltimore CUADA04 6,000 NAR 63.94 -0.86
end of the week. FOB USEC Hampton Roads CUAEA04 6,000 NAR 84.28 +0.13
“There is upside in oil prices increasing, and wind generating less,” FOB USGC New Orleans CUAFA04 6,000 NAR 54.00 -2.00
European coal analyst said.
Platts assessed the CIF ARA 6,000 kcal/kg NAR physical price at
$71.55/mt, up $1.25 on the day Platts physical thermal coal netbacks, Feb 15
Code CV Basis Sulfur $/mt Chg
This upside was more limited to the near term, sources said, as
(kcal/kg)
healthy natural gas storage in Europe would limit coal burn even with Coal ($/mt)
lower wind generation. CIF ARA CSARM01 6,000 NAR 1.0% 71.55 +1.25
NEAT Coal Index JKTCA00 5,750 NAR 1.0% 77.80 +0.22
Russian coal prices on an FOB basis fell lower in the week to Friday. CFR India West CIWCI00 5,500 NAR 0.8% 67.15 -0.95
Platts weekly FOB Russia Baltic 6,000 kcal/kg NAR price was assessed Panamax Freight ($/mt)
at $66.55/mt, down $1 on the week. USEC-Rotterdam CDBUR00 8.25 +0.25
Sources said they expected Russian producers to lower FOB prices Mobile-Rotterdam CDMAR00 11.25 0.00
Roberts Bank-Japan CDRBK00 12.30 +0.20
in order to keep market share, which explains the diverging price
Richards Bay-India West CSAKL00 10.50 +0.40
movement on the week.
Penalties & Premia ($/mt)
Asian markets added little support Friday. Sources said Chinese Per 0.1% Sulfur (USGC) COPAP00 0.26 0.00
coal demand was still lacking, despite recent statistics showing an Total S discount (USGC) COPBP00 4.94 0.00
increase in imports. Netbacks ($/st)
“Weather is mild in China and I just don’t see the demand in the FOB US East Coast* COUSC00 12,500 GAR 1.0% 63.81 +1.01
FOB US Gulf Coast* COUGU00 11,500 GAR 2.9% 51.23 +1.15
rest of Asia to drive a price spike,” the coal analyst said.
FOB Vancouver* COVCU00 8,800 GAR 0.8% 47.65 +0.01
Indian demand was also muted as state-owned domestic producer
Netbacks ($/mt)
Coal India had been supplying sufficient volumes to power stations, FOB Richards Bay CSEUW00 6,000 NAR 0.8% 64.92 -1.47
curtailing the need for imported thermal coal. * CV = Btu/lb
FOB Baltimore 6,000 NAR * 63.94 CIF Turkey 6,000 NAR* 85.00
NEAT Coal Index 5,750 NAR 77.80
FOB Hampton Roads 6,000 NAR* 84.28
FOB New Orleans 6,000 NAR * 54.00 PCC 1 (FOB Qinhuangdao) 5,500 NAR 88.11
CFR India East 5,500 NAR 67.35
PCC 8 (CFR South China) 5,500 NAR 68.25
CFR India West 5,500 NAR 67.15
CFR India East 4,200 GAR 43.45
CFR India West 4,200 GAR 44.20
FOB Richards Bay 5,500 NAR 59.85 FOB Newcastle 5,500 NAR 61.80
FOB Richards Bay 6,000 NAR 64.92 FOB Newcastle 6,300 GAR 87.10
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
As a result, sources were not expecting much price increases Spot dry bulk freight assessments, Feb 15
through to the end of March. Platts symbol $/mt Chg
Capesize
CIF ARA thermal coal futures also trended higher Friday. Australia-China CDANC00 6.70 +0.10
A European coal trader said current low price levels could be seen Queensland-Japan CIGAJ00 7.30 +0.10
as attractive to buyers. New South Wales-Korea CINAK00 8.15 +0.10
“The market seems to have gained new strength, there is demand Bolivar-Rotterdam CIBCR00 7.85 0.00
Roberts Bank-Japan CDRKJ00 9.10 +0.10
at these levels and healthy volumes,” the source said.
Richards Bay-Rotterdam CIRBN00 6.80 0.00
Furthermore, the European complex added support Friday with
Panamax
German year-ahead power, natural gas and ICE Brent Crude futures all Richards Bay-India West CSAKL00 10.50 +0.40
trading higher on the day. Kalimantan-India West CSAKP00 7.70 +0.20
Platts assessed the Cal-20 contract at $79/mt, up $1.75 on the day. Richards Bay-India East CSAKN00 10.55 +0.40
— Joseph Clarke Kalimantan-India East CSAKR00 6.40 +0.20
Richards Bay-Rotterdam CIRRN00 9.25 +0.50
Richards Bay-Spanish Med CIRBT00 8.75 +0.50
Richards Bay-Jorf Lasfar CIRBJ00 8.50 +0.50
Thermal coal buyers in Turkey look to Bolivar-Rotterdam CIBRN00 10.25 0.00
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Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
15-Feb Offer FOB Richards Bay 6000 NAR $74.25 50,000 March globalCOAL
15-Feb Bid FOB Richards Bay 6000 NAR $74.50 50,000 April globalCOAL EFP
15-Feb Offer CIF ARA 6000 NAR $70.50 50,000 March globalCOAL
15-Feb Offer CIF ARA 6000 NAR $72.75 50,000 April globalCOAL
15-Feb Bid CIF ARA 6000 NAR $73.25 50,000 April Braemar
15-Feb Bid CIF ARA 6000 NAR $71.50 50,000 March Braemar
15-Feb Offer FOB Qinhuangdao 5500 NAR Yuan595-600 Unknown Spot cargo Trader
15-Feb Trade FOB Qinhuangdao 5500 NAR Yuan597-598 Unknown Spot cargo Market
15-Feb Trade FOB Kalimantan 3800 NAR $37.50-38 75,000 March Trader Panamax
15-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 3800 NAR $36-37 55,000 March Trader Supramax
15-Feb Bid FOB Kalimantan 3800 NAR $35.5 55,000 March Trader Supramax
15-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 3800 GAR $33 55,000 March Trader Supramax
15-Feb Trade FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR $36.5 75,000 March Trader Gearless vessel
15-Feb Bid/Offer FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR $37 vs 39 55,000 March Trader Supramax
15-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR $40 55,000 March Producer Supramax
15-Feb Bid/Offer FOB Kalimantan 5100 GAR $58.50-59 vs 59.50-60 75,000 March Trader Panamax
14-Feb Trade FOB Richards Bay 6000 NAR $76.6 50,000 March globalCOAL
14-Feb Bid CIF ARA 6000 NAR $70.25 50,000 March Braemar
14-Feb Offer CIF ARA 6000 NAR $73 50,000 March Braemar
14-Feb Bid CIF ARA 6000 NAR $72.75 50,000 April Braemar
14-Feb Offer CIF ARA 6000 NAR $73 50,000 April Braemar
14-Feb Bid FOB Richards Bay 6000 NAR $75 50,000 March globalCOAL
14-Feb Offer FOB Richards Bay 6000 NAR $75.5 50,000 March globalCOAL
14-Feb Trade FOB Newcastle 6000 NAR $94.5 25,000 April globalCOAL Parcel
14-Feb Offer FOB Qinhuangdao 5500 NAR Yuan590-595 Unknown Spot cargo Trader
14-Feb Trade FOB Kalimantan 3800 NAR $35.5 55,000 March Trader Supramax
14-Feb Trade FOB Kalimantan 3800 GAR $28.75 40,000 March Producer Handysize
14-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 3800 GAR $29 55,000 March Trader Supramax
14-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR $35.5 55,000 March Trader Supramax
14-Feb Bid FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR $35.5 55,000 March Trader Supramax
14-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR $37 55,000 March-April Producer Supramax
14-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR $36 55,000 March Trader Supramax
14-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 4700 GAR $55 55,000 March-April Producer Supramax
14-Feb Bid FOB Kalimantan 4700 GAR $49 55,000 March-April Trader Supramax
14-Feb Trade FOB Newcastle 6000 NAR $87.65 50,000 March globalCOAL
14-Feb Trade FOB Newcastle 6000 NAR $87.9 50,000 March globalCOAL
13-Feb Bid CIF ARA 6000 NAR $69.5 50,000 March Braemar
13-Feb Offer CIF ARA 6000 NAR $70.5 50,000 March Braemar
13-Feb Offer CIF ARA 6000 NAR $71.25 50,000 April Braemar
13-Feb Bid CIF ARA 6000 NAR $72.25 50,000 April Braemar
13-Feb Bid FOB Richards Bay 6000 NAR $76.5 50,000 March globalCOAL
13-Feb Offer FOB Richards Bay 6000 NAR $77.4 50,000 March globalCOAL
13-Feb Bid FOB Richards Bay 6000 NAR $79.5 50,000 April globalCOAL
13-Feb Trade FOB Newcastle 6000 NAR $94 25,000 April globalCOAL Parcel
13-Feb Bid FOB Newcastle 5500 NAR $60-61 130,000 April Market Capesize
13-Feb Bid FOB Newcastle 5300 NAR $56-57 130,000 March-April Market Capesize, on a
5,500 NAR basis
13-Feb Offer FOB Qinhuangdao 5500 NAR Yuan588-590 Unknown Spot cargo Trader
13-Feb Trade FOB Sumatra 4000 GAR $32 55,000 March Trader Geared vessel
13-Feb Trade FOB Sumatra 5500 GAR $62 55,000 March Trader Geared vessel
13-Feb Bid FOB Kalimantan 3800 NAR $34.6 55,000 March Trader Supramax
13-Feb Bid FOB Kalimantan 3800 NAR $34.5 55,000 March Trader Geared vessel
13-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 3800 NAR $36 55,000 March Trader Geared vessel
13-Feb Offer FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR $35.75-36 55,000 March Trader Supramax
13-Feb Bid FOB Kalimantan 4200 GAR $36 55,000 March Trader Supramax
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 5
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
The coal produced is exported the Wiggins Island Coal Export Coking coal swaps assessment, Feb 15
Platts symbol $/mt Chg % Chg
Terminal and the Port of Gladstone. TSI Premium Hard Coking Coal Australia Export FOB East Coast Port
— Piers De Wilde
Mar-19 MCPLM01 206.000 +0.080 +0.039
Apr-19 MCPLM02 200.500 +0.580 +0.290
May-19 MCPLM03 194.920 +0.250 +0.128
Coal stocks at Indian power plants rise Q2-19
Q3-19
MCPLQ01 194.950 0.000 0.000
MCPLQ02 186.670 0.000 0.000
to 22.64 million mt Q4-19 MCPLQ03 188.420 +0.750 +0.400
2020 MCPLY01 181.970 +0.750 +0.414
■■Stock levels up 148% on-year 2021 MCPLY02 173.130 +2.580 +1.513
■■Imported thermal coal stocks peak at 705,000 mt
Metallurgical coke, Feb 15
Seaborne
London—Thermal coal stocks at Indian power plants climbed to their % CSR Platts symbol $/mt Chg % Chg
highest level since May 2017, reaching 22.64 million mt in the week FOB North China 66/65 MCCNC00 352.00 0.00 0.00
ending Thursday, according to data published Friday by the Central 65/63 MCCHB00 341.00 0.00 0.00
Electricity Authority. 64/62 AAWVL00 337.00 0.00 0.00
62/60 MCCHA00 327.00 0.00 0.00
Stock levels were up 148% from the year-ago period continuing the
CFR India 66/65 MCCNI00 365.00 0.00 0.00
trend so far in 2019 of recovering inventories, which spent most of the 65/63 MCINB00 354.00 0.00 0.00
previous two years at perilously low levels. 64/62 MCCEI00 350.00 0.00 0.00
62/60 MCINA00 340.00 0.00 0.00
Domestic
Yuan/mt
DDP North China (weekly) 62 AAWVJ00 2220.00 +50.00 +2.30
$/mt
FOB North China equivalent (DDP weekly) 62 PLVHM04 335.37 +4.20 +1.25
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 6
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 7
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
The company also announced that Narrabri’s ROM production in fiscal Platts daily Asia Pacific metallurgical coal
2019-2020 is expected to be in the range of 6.2 million-6.6 million mt.
relativities, February 15, 2019
It maintained its guidance at its largest mine, Maules Creek, at 11.8 February 15 Spread Spread
million-12.2 million mt ROM, it said. CFR China vs PLV vs HCC 64
Whitehaven realized an average price of $110/mt for its thermal coal $/mt
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 8
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
kcal/kg NAR and three 60,000-mt cargoes of coal with a minimum The Navios Southern Star loaded 47,840 st on Monday and is
calorific value of 4,700 kcal/kg NAR. expected to reach Ijmuiden, Netherlands, on February 25, according to
Glencore was not immediately available for comment. the data and cFlow.
The tender closed February 14. On Thursday, 83,504 st was loaded onto the Kiran Eurasia vessel,
— Jenny Ma which departed for the Port of Gibraltar on the south coast of Spain.
The ship is expected to arrive on February 25.
The Andante and Rio Grita are currently anchored at the pier, and
Three coal ships loaded at Dominion Terminal as of 11 am EST (1600 GMT), the Andante had loaded 85,968 st, but the
in week ended Feb 15; two more at pier Stonington Eagle had not started loading the scheduled 55,225 st.
Five coal carriers are currently anchored near Cape Charles,
■■Three departed this week with 144,438 st onboard outside of Hampton Roads, that are waiting to load coal at one of the
■■Terminal expected to export 1.11 million st on 18 vessels in February three terminals, but only one is currently scheduled to load at DTA.
Last week, eight were waiting near Cape Charles.
Houston—Dominion Terminal Associates loaded and exported 144,438 So far this month, nine ships have departed DTA with 529,189 st on
st of coal on three coal carriers at its Newport News, Virginia, pier in board. In January, 17 ships with 1.16 million st left DTA, down from 18 in
the week ended February 15, down from four with 274,969 st a week December that exported 1.24 million st.
earlier, company data showed Friday. Since January 1, 25 ships have left DTA with 1.69 million st of coal
The terminal, which is owned by Contura Energy (65%) and Arch on board.
Coal (35%) and served by CSX, loaded the Epictetus with 13,094 st of Including the ships at the pier and those departed, DTA currently
coal on Sunday, the DTA data showed. The ship is currently docked at has 18 ships scheduled to arrive in February that will load 1.11 million st
Pier IX, which is owned and operated by Kinder Morgan, according to of coal, while another 26 are estimated in March to export 1.38 million
cFlow, S&P Global Platts trade-flow software. st, according to the company data.
DTA is the second largest of the three coal terminals in the
Platts to adjust US FOB coal assessments Hampton Roads region. In 2018, the terminal exported 15.82 million st
S&P Global Platts is proposing to discontinue some of its weekly US FOB of coal, up 23.4% year on year, according to data from the Virginia
assessments for physical thermal coal on April 5, 2019, and add new ones. Maritime Association. The 15.82 million st was only behind Norfolk
The following assessments would be discontinued: Southern-owned Lamberts Point, which exported 17.16 million st.
— Tyler Godwin
*FOB Baltimore 6,944 kcal/kg NAR 2.6% sulfur (CUAAA04);
*FOB Hampton Roads 6,667 kcal/kg NAR 1% sulfur (CUABA04);
*FOB New Orleans 6,111 kcal/kg NAR 2.9% sulfur (CUACA04).
The related monthly and quarterly averages would also be discontinued, as
Australia’s Aurizon mulls options ahead
follows: of submitting revenue plan Mon
*FOB Baltimore 13000 Btu/lb GAR 2.6%S $/mt Mavg (CUAAA03);
■■Aurizon has until Monday to respond to watchdog’s final decision
*FOB Baltimore 13000 Btu/lb GAR 2.6%S $/mt Qavg (CUAAA05);
■■Dispute could cut 20 million mt/year of rail capacity for coal
*FOB Hampton Roads 12500 Btu/lb GAR 1%S $/mt MAvg (CUABA03);
in Queensland
*FOB Hampton Roads 12500 Btu/lb GAR 1%S $/mt QAvg (CUABA05);
*FOB New Orleans 11500 Btu/lb GAR 2.9%S $/mt MAvg (CUACA03);
Sydney—Australian rail operator Aurizon will reveal on Monday how much
*FOB New Orleans 11500 Btu/lb GAR 2.9%S $/mt QAvg (CUACA05).
revenue it proposes to make on its Queensland rail network for coal
In addition, Platts is proposing to launch a new assessment for thermal coal for exports when it submits its final revenue plans to Australian regulator the
export from the Port of Baltimore, as follows:
Queensland Competition Authority, the company said Friday.
*FOB Baltimore 6,900 kcal/kg NAR 3% sulfur.
The QCA handed down its final decision outlining a Maximum
The proposed assessment would also include a monthly and quarterly average.
Allowable Revenue for Aurizon’s Queensland coal network of A$4.123
Finally, the existing assessments for FOB Hampton Roads 6,000 kcal/kg NAR 1% billion over the four-year — fiscal 2017-2018 to 2020-2020 (July-June)
sulfur (CUAEA04) and FOB New Orleans 6,000 kcal/kg NAR 2.9% sulfur
— period. The competition regulator is involved in setting Aurizon’s
(CUAFA04), which previously were calculated based on the assessments for
FOB Hampton Roads 6,667 kcal/kg NAR 1% sulfur (CUABA04) and FOB New revenue due to it being the operator of the largest rail network for coal
Orleans 6,111 kcal/kg NAR 2.9% sulfur (CUACA04), respectively, will instead be exports in Queensland.
converted into assessments, with value based on trades, bids, offers and This represented an increase compared to a proposed MAR of
indications heard in the market. A$3.89 billion in the QCA’s draft decision published in December 2017.
Please address any questions or comments by March 1 to coal@spglobal.com Aurizon had called for a MAR of A$4.71 billion in its response to the
and pricemethodology@spglobal.com.
draft decision.
For written comments, please provide a clear indication if comments are not “We will respond to the QCA’s Final Decision on 18 February. It’s not
intended for publication by Platts for public viewing. Platts will consider all
comments received and will make comments not marked as confidential
appropriate to provide any further commentary until that time,” a
available upon request. spokeswoman for Aurizon said Thursday night.
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 9
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
Aurizon was given until Monday to respond to QCA Access In the PRB segment, the company sold 19.52 million tons in Q4,
Undertaking for its Central Queensland Coal Network, but later allowed primarily from the Black Thunder mine, down from 21.49 million st in
the rail operator more time. the previous quarter but up from 19.47 million st a year ago.
The QCA had given it 60 days from December 6, when it gave its “Our Powder River Basin operations delivered another strong
final decision. At this stage, Aurizon’s next move is unclear, with the shipping quarter, as our Black Thunder mine capitalized on a rebound
company saying this week that it is still mulling options. in spot market activity and increased train availability stemming from
“We’ve been pursuing multiple ways to reach an appropriate lingering, weather-related challenges elsewhere in the basin,” Arch
outcome, and while there has been positive engagement, resolution President Paul Lang said.
remains a work in progress. Engagement with customers and our The coal sales from the PRB sold at an average cost of $11.88/st,
stakeholders continues, although no agreement has been reached,” down from $12.02/st in Q3 and $12.32/st in the year-ago quarter.
Aurizon CEO Andrew Harding said Monday. Cash costs per ton was $10.66/st, up from $9.76/st in the previous
The rail operator previously said that the draft decision on the quarter but down from $10.78/st in the year-ago quarter. This resulted
access undertaking — the final decision was slightly more favorable for in a cash margin per ton of $1.22/st, down from $2.26/st in Q3 and
Aurizon — has the potential to cause a loss of 20 million mt/year on the $1.54/st in the year-ago quarter.
CQCN, which is a major component for seaborne trade for Australia. During the quarter, Lang said the company committed and priced
The estimated split, Aurizon said last year, would be up to 10 million about 17 million st of PRB coal for 2019 deliveries at an average price
mt/year on the Goonyella system serving Hay Point port, 8 million mt/ between $11.65/st and $11.70/st. Total 2019 commitments are now 58.4
year on Blackwater linked to Gladstone, 1.5 million mt for Moura also million st, with 56.6 million st at a fixed average price of $12.13/st and
serving Gladstone, and 300,000 mt on Newlands for Abbot Point port. 1.8 million st at market-based pricing.
Over July-December, there was 30.4 million mt of coal hauled on “What we see heading into this quarter — and we’ve placed quite a
Goonyella, and 29.1 million mt on Blackwater — each was down by 4% bit of business in January — is that those numbers are starting to move
year on year. Newlands saw 9.9 million mt, up 1% year on year, and up,” Lang said. “We’re seeing actually closer to about a $12[/st] handle.”
Moura’s volume rose 21% to 7 million mt, according to data from The company expects to “intensify its focus on the higher-quality”
Aurizon’s half-year report. Black Thunder mine in 2019 and estimates production will be between
National Australia Bank earlier this week lifted its price forecasts for 70 million-80 million st, while reducing its output at the lower-quality
metallurgical coal, citing the Aurizon/QCA dispute as part of the reason 8,400 Btu/lb Coal Creek mine to between 2 million and 3 million st.
— along with Chinese quotas aimed at boosting domestic output. “As we were heading into the end of last year, we saw prices on the
Its forecast for hard coking coal was raised to $185/mt for 2019, up 8400 [Btu/lb] coal take a hell of a drop. The difference between 8400
from $170/mt, and $158/mt for 2020. Its forecasts for thermal coal to 8800 opened up. I think the published numbers were about $4, but I
prices, meanwhile, slid on the back of a weaker demand environment. think the physical numbers were actually closer to $4.50, and we
For 2019 and 2020, it lowered the thermal coal price forecasts to $95/ frankly decided that we weren’t going to play in that game,” Lang said.
mt and $90/mt, from $102/mt and $100/mt, respectively., Nathan “We have the flexibility. We operate two mines basically as one, so we
Richardson just shifted the people around. Frankly, the prices that are out there
and the spread between the two products is not sustainable.”
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 10
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
slows down The highest bid was indicated at $203/mt FOB Australia for an Australian
Premium Mid-Vol Goonyella cargo, assessed at 50 cents discount to Platts PLV
FOB Australia. The most competitive firm offer was at $214/mt FOB Australia,
Singapore—The seaborne Premium Low Vol coking coal market
for a mid-March laycan, 75,000-mt cargo of coal similar to Semi Premium blend
stabilized Friday as restocking by mills slowed down. However, for Peak Downs North, assessed at a $3/mt discount to Platts PLV FOB Australia.
Hard Coking Coal, procurement activities increased as reselling No data was excluded from this assessment.
opportunities were seen in China. The above rationale applies to Platts premium low vol FOB Australia
S&P Global Platts assessed Premium Low Vol coal steady at assessment, with the associated data code: PLVHA00
$208.50/mt FOB Australia, while the CFR China marker was unchanged
as well at $205/mt Friday.
In China, several participants were waiting on the sidelines, trying A trade was done late Thursday for 75,000 mt of Carborough
to get a clearer price direction, resulting in thin liquidity Friday. Downs on a floating Index basis at 101% Hard coking coal FOB
In the near term, price indications from Chinese buyers are not Australia. This was for a mid-March laycan cargo.
expected to be strong but steel mills will need to procure soon as One seller said that while he received inquiries from buyers, he did
some of them can’t “hold on” for too long without buying, a seller said. not have any spot cargoes left to sell.
One Chinese buyer said he would prefer buying prompt cargoes as Another trade was done late Thursday at $185/mt CFR China for a
he expects prices to stabilize in the short term, and would not consider prompt laycan, 75,000-mt cargo of Australian HCC with 58%-60% CSR.
March-laycan cargoes yet. A survey of market participants showed opinion was divided about
this grade of coal, compared with the regular Lake Vermont HCC. Most
Active buying in HCC segment Chinese participants were uncertain on the spreads.
In the second-tier segment, procurement activities increased and At Jingtang port, Platts assessed PLV ex-stock Jingtang up Yuan
three trades were concluded on Thursday and Friday. 20/mt at Yuan 1,680/mt on Friday, and HCC 64 Mid Vol ex-stock
A trade was done late Friday for a 90,000-mt cargo of HCC Lake Jingtang at Yuan 1,550/mt, up Yuan 30/mt on the week.
Vermont at $178/mt FOB Australia, with a mid- to end-March laycan. “Port stock prices are more than seaborne cargo prices but end-
The cargo was sold to an end-user as part of a long-term contract. users prefer to buy small volumes each time,” a China-based trader said.
Market participants were not surprised at the traded level, given the In the FOB market, a trade was done at $205/mt FOB Australia for a
shortage of low ash, tier-two coals in the market. A steel mill source mid-May laycan, 75,000-mt cargo of a grade of coal similar to
said Lake Vermont could trade around $185-$190/mt CFR China given Australian Premium Mid-Vol Goonyella coal. However, the laycan of the
the current market conditions. trade was out of Platts’ 7-45 days assessment window, so the traded
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 11
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
level was not reflected in Platts’ assessment Friday. number of reasons, including news of Australian cargoes affected by
A trader source said that he was quite concerned with the port import restrictions and also re-stocking activities.
restrictions in China and while he had seen some spot offers for premium
coals, he was not interested in buying. He added that the spot price for Chinese domestic prices rebound
premium coals was not suitable for consideration at the moment. Chinese domestic prices rebounded marginally after remaining
In the PCI segment, participants said there was tightness with very stagnant for about two weeks as buying activities returned, sources said.
few cargoes left. While Chinese buyers stayed away from the imported “Some end-users have started to re-stock, but not all mines have
PCI market, with two buyers saying that prices were too high, end-users resumed production, so offers have gone up now,” said a trader.
outside of China were actively looking for spot cargoes. A trader said The rebound was also due to a cold snap in the northern part of the
that Australian Low-Vol PCI could trade at around $128-$130/mt FOB. country, and snow had hindered coal transportation, sources added.
— Kate Zhou “Though offers are up and trades were heard concluded at slightly
below Yuan 600/mt, the concluded volume is not that much as
stockpiles are still high,” an end-user based in east China said.
All eyes on thermal coal supply in Indonesia’s “This price increase should be temporary and we’ll see prices
East Kalimantan softening again when all mines resume production and the weather
...from page 1 turning warmer,” another trader said.
for March to China at $36.50/mt FOB Kalimantan. Newcastle 6,000 NAR prices plummet to 20-month low
Market sources said the production quota restriction in Indonesia’s The Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg NAR market suffered a sharp price
coal fields has mostly affected East Kalimantan mines, but the impact decline in overnight trading Friday, with spot prices falling to their
has yet to hit the entire archipelago. lowest level since July 2017 as two March-loading cargoes, each
A north India-based trader said India’s seaborne demand has been 50,000 mt in size, traded at $87.65/mt and $87.90/mt FOB,
steady, showing interest for Indonesian 3,400 kcal/kg GAR to 5,000 respectively, on globalCOAL.
kcal/kg GAR coal. Market sources reacted with surprise to the level of the trades, as
Offers for Panamax cargoes of Indonesian 5,100 kcal/kg GAR coal this grade of Australian thermal coal which is mostly shipped to Japan
for March loading were heard at $59.50-$60/mt FOB Kalimantan, while had traded at $96.75/mt for a March-loading Panamax cargo on
bids were heard at $58.50-$59/mt. February 5, and at $99/mt for a 25,000 mt March shipment on
Buyers concerned over a shortage of availability of Indonesian mid- February 1, both on globalCOAL.
calorific coal have pushed up spot cargo prices, an Indonesia-based “I was a bit surprised the price is going down,” said one market
trader said. source familiar with the Japanese thermal coal market. He added that
“This is due to buyers’ mentality for the need to secure cargoes he did not think the spot price of Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg NAR thermal
before a potential sanction on the supply,” he added. coal would fall to the low $80s/mt FOB.
“Already, Japanese power utility and suppliers’ price gap is very big
Chinese tender [in April term contract price talks]. But if prices [get] cheaper, the price
A tender for Indonesian 3,800 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal from an gap is going to be more, so I think [the] negotiations will be more
east China power plant was awarded at Yuan 348/mt CFR China, difficult,” the market source said.
excluding port charges, according to a China-based trader. There are limited, urgent inquiries from Japan for spot cargoes of
Market sources pegged the FOB price at $35.80-$36/mt on a high-CV Australian thermal coal, according to market sources.
Supramax basis. “Japan is still burning coal from their current term contracts with
“It’s not easy to get Supramax cargoes at below $36/mt FOB, and Australian producers, as almost all Japanese power utilities experienced
Panamaxes at below $37/mt FOB now,” said a south China-based trader. outages in [the] Japanese financial year 2018,” one market source said.
An Indonesia-based trader heard inquiries for March-loading Tepid demand for Australian thermal coal is expected to continue
cargoes of Indonesian 4,200 kcal/kg GAR coal from Chinese traders, as power plants in Japan and South Korea begin spring maintenance
and added that it could be related to the recent tenders. after a heavy winter coal burn, sources said.
Several market sources said the recent price rise was due to a — Michael Cooper, Hui Min Lee, Fred Wang, Jenny Ma
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 12
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 13
Coal Trader International Friday, February 15, 2019
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 14
COAL TRADER INTERNATIONAL ANALYTICS
Friday, February 15, 2019
Though ARA stockpiles drew this week, they remain 46% above prior-year levels, adding to downward pressure on CIF ARA prices alongside
declining European gas and power prices. Milder-than-normal weather in Europe also continues to weigh on demand, while Russian coal exports
remain at elevated levels even as we believe that US exports to the continent are beginning to fade as the arbitrage window for US coals has been
shut for several months now.
Although data this week showed that Chinese imports rebounded significantly m-o-m in January to 33.5 million mt, even eclipsing prior-year
levels by more than 20%, Pacific Basin prices also declined considerably this week. January imports are likely the result of pent-up demand from
November and December, and we still believe that rising Chinese production and elevated stockpiles will put downward pressure on imports this
year, weighing on Pacific Basin prices.
ASIA
GUANGZHOU STOCKPILES ('000 mt) QINHUANGDAO STOCKPILES ('000 mt)
ANALYTICS REPORT
COAL TRADER INTERNATIONAL
ASIA CONTINUED
INDIA COAL IMPORTS/ARRIVALS ('000 mt) INDIA COAL IMPORTS BY TYPE ('000 mt)
INDIA TOP RECEIVERS ('000 mt) INDIA COAL IMPORTS BY TYPE ('000 mt)
Week YoY
03-Feb 04-Feb 05-Feb 06-Feb 07-Feb 08-Feb 09-Feb Total Change
Anthracite 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coking Coal 155 310 53 29 45 222 317 1,131 226
Petcoke 48 36 0 0 53 20 159 316 104
Steam Coal 250 558 381 661 339 558 470 3,216 332
TOTAL 453 904 434 690 437 800 946 4,663 662
AUSTRALIA
SCHEDULED EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA BY PORT/COAL TERMINAL ('000 mt)
Port 15-Feb 16-Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 21-Feb Week Total WoW Change
ABBOT POINT 90.15 71.4 223.7 162.8 273.522 0 0 822 101
BRISBANE 0 100 0 103 0 0 0 203 125
GLADSTONE 163.385 268.799 56.31 185.54 79.7 0 0 754 -232
HAY POINT & DBCT 331.02 420.986 450.52 73.382 766.584 498.9 219.06 2,760 894
NEWCASTLE 462.71 753.39 723.159 649.447 642.752 294.303 485.887 4,012 320
PORT KEMBLA 0 0 60 0 0 77 75 212 47
TOTAL 1,047.265 1,614.575 1,513.689 1,174.169 1,762.558 870.203 779.947 8,762 1,255
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 2
COAL TRADER INTERNATIONAL
EUROPE
EMO ROTTERDAM STOCKPILES ('000 mt) OBA AMSTERDAM STOCKPILES ('000 mt)
OVET VLISSINGEN STOCKPILES ('000 mt) ATLANTIC MARKET STOCKPILES ('000 mt)
WoW
14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 04-Feb 11-Feb Change YoY Change
EMO Rotterdam 3,600 3,600 3,500 3,500 3,300 -200 700
OBA Amsterdam 2,100 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100 100 800
OVET Vlissingen 660 660 670 690 635 -55 395
Total Stocks 6,360 6,260 6,170 6,190 6,035 -155 1,895
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 3
COAL TRADER INTERNATIONAL
WEATHER
WEATHER FORECAST
Supply Center 16-Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb
AUSTRALIA - New South Wales
High Temperatures 29.5 31.9 34 30.2 29.2 28.4 26.7
Low Temperatures 16.9 17.5 19 19.4 18.6 18.3 16.9
Precipitation 0 0 0 0.007 0.015 0.002 0.002
AUSTRALIA - Queensland
High Temperatures 31.6 31.8 32.4 34.3 35.5 35.8 33.6
Low Temperatures 22.8 22.6 22.9 24 25.5 25.9 25.4
Precipitation 0 0.004 0 0.002 0 0.002 0.008
COLOMBIA - La Guajira
High Temperatures 32.1 32.1 32.3 32.1 32.2 32.6 32.3
Low Temperatures 25.1 24.7 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.2 25.2
Precipitation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
INDONESIA - Kalimantan
High Temperatures 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.9 30.1 30
Low Temperatures 24.6 23.8 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.1
Precipitation 0.06 0.025 0.032 0.027 0.015 0.037 0.032
NORTH CHINA
High Temperatures 1.8 1.9 2.8 5.9 7.4 7 9.1
Low Temperatures -8.4 -5.1 -2.2 -2.4 -1 0.6 0.3
Precipitation 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.004 0.012 0.002
RUSSIA EAST
High Temperatures -3.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 -0.1 1.6 1.7
Low Temperatures -13.5 -11.3 -8.7 -6.1 -7 -7.2 -6.3
Precipitation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RUSSIA WEST
High Temperatures 2.5 -3.4 -5.9 -4.3 -2.2 -5.7 -7.5
Low Temperatures -7.2 -12.1 -12.2 -8.7 -7.7 -11.7 -14
Precipitation 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0
This report is based on data that S&P Global Platts Analytics considers reliable at the time it is distributed, but S&P Global Platts Analytics does not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as
such. Assumptions, estimates and opinions expressed in the report constitute S&P Global Platts Analytics' judgment as of the date the report is distributed, and they are subject to change without notice. S&P Global
Platts Analytics disclaims any responsibility or liability to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for any loss or damage
arising from any reliance on or the use of the report in any way. This report does not constitute the provision of investment advice.
© 2019 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 4