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8) 2006 JULY

a) What is random Number?

A random number is a number generated using a large set of numbers and a

mathematical algorithm which gives equal probability to all numbers occurring in the
specified distribution. Random numbers are most commonly produced with the help of a
random number generator. Random numbers have important applications, especially in
cryptography where they act as ingredients in encryption keys.

b) Define monte carlo simulation. Describe various steps in monte carlo simulation

Monte Carlo simulation, or probability simulation, is a technique used to understand the

impact of risk and uncertainty in financial, project management, cost, and other
forecasting models.

Steps in monte carlo simulation

Step 1: Create a parametric model, y = f(x1, x2, ..., xq).

Step 2: Generate a set of random inputs, xi1, xi2, ..., xiq.

Step 3: Evaluate the model and store the results as yi.

Step 4: Repeat steps 2 and 3 for i = 1 to n.

Step 5: Analyze the results using histograms, summary statistics, confidence intervals,

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c) The Lajwaab Bakery Shop keeps stock of a popular brand of cake. Previous
experience indicates the daily demand as given below:

Daily demand Probability

0 0.01

15 0.15

25 0.20

35 0.50

45 0.12

50 0.02

Consider the following sequence of random numbers:

21, 27, 47, 54, 60, 39, 43, 91, 25, 20

Using this sequence, simulate the demand for the next 10 days. Find out the stock
situation, if the owner of the bakery shop decides to make 30 cakes every day. Also
estimate the daily average demand for the cakes on the basis of simulated data.

Solution.

Using the daily demand distribution, we obtain a probability distribution as shown in

the following table.

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Table 1

Daily Probability Cumulative Random

demand probability Numbers

0 0.01 0.01 0

15 0.15 0.16 1-15

25 0.20 0.36 16-35

35 0.50 0.86 36-85

45 0.12 0.98 86-97

50 0.02 1.00 98-99

At the start of simulation, the first random number 21 generates a demand of 25

cakes as shown in table 2. The demand is determined from the cumulative
probability values in table 1. At the end of first day, the closing quantity is 5 (30-25)
cakes.

Similarly, we can calculate the next demand for others.

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Table 2

Demand Random Numbers Next demand Daily production = 30 cakes

Left out Shortage

1 21 25 5

2 27 25 10

3 47 35 5

4 54 35 0

5 60 35 5

6 39 35 10

7 43 35 15

8 91 45 30

9 25 25 25

10 20 25 20

Total 320 10

Total demand = 320

Average demand = Total demand/no. of days
The daily average demand for the cakes = 320/10 = 32 cakes.

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3 JUNE/JULY 2008

7)

a) Give a general structure of the queuing system and explain.

(a) Input source: One characteristic of the input source is the size. The size is the
total number of units that might require service from time to time. It may be
assumed to be finite or infinite.

(b) Queue Discipline: A queue is characterized by maximum permissible number of

units that it contains. Queues are called finite or infinite, according to whether
number is finite or infinite. The service discipline refers to the order in which
number of queues are selected for service.

(c) Service mechanism: This consists of one or more service facilities each of
which contains one or more parallel service channel. If there is more than one
service facility, the arrival unit may receive the service from a sequence of service
channels.

b)

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a)

1) FIRST COME- FIRST SERVED

First come, first served' is a very very common way of organizing access to a limited
resource or service in the real world. It can be explained by saying that whenever the
resource is available the person who has been waiting the longest is served, and
visualized by thinking of people standing in a single-file line, where the person at the
front is always served next and new arrivals join the back of the queue.

If you ask someone why this system is the best, they might instinctively say 'It is the
most fair'. But can we express what this fairness means in terms of some property, which
is maximized for this system and no other? It doesn't mean for instance that people all
wait the same time, or even that people who arrive at nearly the same time don't get
served a long time apart.

2) LAST COME-FIRST SERVED

Motivated by manufacturing and service applications, we consider a single class multi-

server queueing system working under the LCFS discipline of service. After entering the
queue, a customer will wait a random length of time for service to begin. If service has
not begun by this time she will abandon and be lost. For the GI/GI/s+Mqueue, we
present some structural results to describe the relation between various performance
measures and the scheduling policies. We next consider the LCFS M/M/s+M queue and
focus on deriving new results for the virtual waiting time and the sojourn time in the
queue (either before service or before abandonment). We provide an exact analysis using
Laplace–Stieltjes transforms. We also conduct some numerical analysis to illustrate the
impact of customer impatience and the discipline of service on performance.

3) SERVICE SYSTEM

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The service is provided by a service facility (or facilities). This may be a person (a bank
teller, a barber, a machine (elevator, gasoline pump), or a space (airport runway, parking
lot, hospital bed), to mention just a few. A service facility may include one person or
several people operating as a team. There are two aspects of a service system—(a) the
configuration of the service system and (b) the speed of the service.

C) OUT OF SYLLUBUS

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JUNE-JULY 2008

3)

A) 1) Prohibited or Restricted problem:

A Prohibited problem is the one in which there are one or more restrictions. E. g.
says there are 4 contractors – C1, C2, C3 & C4. And there are 4 roads to be
repaired – R1, R2, R3 & R4. But contractor C2 cannot or is not allowed to work
on R3. This is a prohibited problem

Then we assign a very high or infinite value (represented by M) to C2-R3 and

proceed with solution. Throughout the solution steps, M does not change.
Since M is infinity, no assignment is possible in M.

Steps –

1. Take Dummy (if required) & then convert in Regret matrix (if required)

2. Do Row minimization and Column minimization.

3. Cover all Zeroes in the Table with Minimum possible lines. (Start from
maximum zeroes, either row-wise or column-wise).

4. If optimal, find assignment.

5. If not optimal, write next table, change values & check again with Minimum
possible lines.

6. Continue the iterations till optimal solution is reached.

B) OUT OF SYLLUBUS

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C) The critical path in the network diagram has been shown. This has been done by double
lines by joining all those events where E-values and L-values are equal.
The critical path of the project is : 1 - 2 - 4 - 5 - 7 - 8 - 9
critical activities are B, C, F, H, I, J

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The total project time is 26

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NITHIN KUNCHOOR

1BI17MBA33

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