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BUDGETING
PROJECT APPRAISAL
Capital
TECHNIQUES Stock of assets that will generate a flow of income in
the future.
Lecture 04 Capital budgeting
By Planning process for allocating all expenditures that
Ch. QS. Gayan Fernando
B.Sc. (Hons) in QS
will have an expected benefit to the firm for more than
P.G. Dip. in CL&DS, Dip. in Arb., A.M.I.Q.SL.
one year
Nature of Investment
Decisions Evaluation Criteria
The investment decisions of a firm are generally known as Methods of project Appraisal
the capital budgeting, or capital expenditure decisions. Net Present Value (NPV)
The firm’s investment decisions would generally include Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
expansion, acquisition, modernisation and Benefit-cost ratio (Profitability Index)
replacement of the long-term assets. Sale of a division
or business (divestment) is also as an investment decision. Payback Period (PP)
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Decisions like the change in the methods of sales
distribution, or an advertisement campaign or a research
and development programme have long-term implications
for the firm’s expenditures and benefits, and therefore,
they should also be evaluated as investment decisions. 3 4
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Net Present Value Method Net Present Value Method
Cash flows of the investment project should be Net present value should be found out by subtracting
forecasted based on realistic assumptions. present value of cash outflows from present value of cash
Appropriate discount rate should be identified to inflows. The formula for the net present value can be
discount the forecasted cash flows. The appropriate written as follows:
discount rate is the project’s opportunity cost of
capital.
Present value of cash flows should be calculated using
the opportunity cost of capital as the discount rate.
The project should be accepted if NPV is positive
(NPV > 0).
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Questions - NPV
Acceptance Rule
Accept the project when NPV is positive
i. Project X costs Rs 2,500 Mn now and is expected to
NPV > 0 generate year-end cash inflows of Rs 900 Mn, Rs 800
Reject the project when NPV is negative Mn, Rs 700 Mn, Rs 600 Mn and Rs 500 Mn in years 1
NPV < 0 through 5. The opportunity cost of the capital may be
assumed to be 10 per cent. Appreciate.
May accept the project when NPV is zero
NPV = 0 ii. A project cost is Rs 15,000 Mn and is expected to out
The NPV method can be used to select between flow 800 Mn and 700 Mn in first three months
mutually exclusive projects; the one with the higher respectively. This project is expected to generate cash
flows of Rs. 8,000 Mn, Rs. 7000 Mn, Rs. 6,000 Mn
NPV should be selected. respectively at end of each year from third year.
Opportunity cost is 8%. Appreciate.
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Evaluation of the NPV Method Internal Rate of Return Method
NPV is most acceptable investment rule for the Internal rate of return (IRR) is the interest rate at which
following reasons: the net present value of all the cash flows (both positive
Time value and negative) from a project or investment equal zero.
Measure of true profitability Internal rate of return is used to evaluate the
Value-additivity attractiveness of a project or investment.
Shareholder value
Limitations:
Involved cash flow estimation
Discount rate difficult to determine
Mutually exclusive projects
Ranking of projects
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Questions - IRR
Calculation of IRR
Graph Method i. Project Y costs Rs 3,500 Mn now and is expected to
generate year-end cash inflows of Rs 1300 Mn, Rs 900
Assume distribution linear Mn, Rs 900 Mn, Rs 800 Mn and Rs 700 Mn in years 1
distribution between through 5. Appreciate by using trail and error method.
Discount rate and NPV ii. A project cost is Rs 12,000 Mn and is expected to
Calculate Discount rate by generate cash flows of Rs. 8,000 Mn, Rs. 5,000 Mn, Rs.
using gradient 5,000 Mn respectively at end of each year for next 3
years. Appreciate by using graph method.
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Acceptance Rule Questions - PI
The following are the PI acceptance rules: i. The initial cash outlay of a project is Rs 100,000 and it
Accept the project when PI is greater than one. PI > 1 can generate cash inflow of Rs 40,000, Rs 30,000, Rs
Reject the project when PI is less than one. PI < 1 50,000 and Rs 20,000 in year 1 through 4. Assume a 10
May accept the project when PI is equal to one. PI = 1 per cent rate of discount. Appreciate.
The project with positive NPV will have PI greater than
one. PI less than means that the project’s NPV is ii. The initial cash outlay of the project is Rs. 100,000 Mn
negative. and it can be gain by cash inflow of Rs. 40,000 Mn, Rs.
[Explore the relationship among NPV, IRR, and PI] 30,000 Mn, Rs. 50,000 Mn and Rs. 20,000 Mn in year 1
through 4. Assume a 10 per cent rate of discount.
Appreciate.
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Payback Period Acceptance Rule
In case of un-equal cash flows, payback period can be
found out adding up cash inflow until the total is equal to The project would be accepted if its payback period is
less than the maximum or standard payback period set
initial out lay.
by management.
For Unequal Cash Floor
As a ranking method, it gives highest ranking to the
project, which has the shortest payback period and
A = Last period with negative cash flow lowest ranking to the project with highest payback
B = Absolute value of cumulative cash flow at the end of period of A period.
C = actual cash flow during the period after A
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ii. Suppose that a project requires a cash outlay of Rs 20,000, Serious limitations:
Cash flows after payback
and generates cash inflows of Rs 8,000; Rs 7,000; Rs Cash flows ignored
4,000; and Rs 3,000 during the next 4 years. What is the Cash flow patterns
project’s payback? Assume a 10 per cent rate of discount. Administrative difficulties
Inconsistent with shareholder value
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Question – Discounted Payback
Discounted Payback Period
The discounted payback period is the number of periods i. Assume that a project requires an outlay of Rs 50,000 and
taken in recovering the investment outlay on the present value yields annual cash inflow of Rs 12,500 for 7 years.
basis.
Calculate the discounted payback period for the project?
The discounted payback period still fails to consider the cash Assume a 10 per cent rate of discount.
flows occurring after the payback period.
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Question - ARR
Question - ARR
i. Dunlop (Pvt.) Ltd decided to invest in a project. Their cash ii. XYA distributors is considering opening a new sales outlet in
inflows and outflows are as follows: Galle. Two possible sites have been identified. Site A has a
capacity of 30,000m². It sill require an average investment of LKR
Year 0 1 2 3 6 million and will produce an average profit of LKR 600,000 a
Cash outflow 240 year. Site B has a capacity of 20,000m². It will require an
investment of LKR 4 million and will produce an average profit of
Cash inflow 0 90 140 100 LKR 500,000 per year.
Salvage 20 What is the ARR of each investment opportunity?
Value Which site would you select and why?
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Exercise
Evaluation of ARR Method Q.
SKL (Pvt.) Ltd., a property developer is considering four investment option A, B,
The ARR method may claim some merits C and D. All options incur same initial investment of LKR 80 Mn. Net cash flow
of each option for next five years are given below.
Simplicity
You are working at SKL (Pvt.) Ltd. as a manager (project operation). You are
Accounting data expert in project appraisal area. The Developer seeks your advice to choose
Accounting profitability profitable option.
•Rank the projects in accordance with Payback Period, Discounted Payback
Serious shortcoming Period, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Profitability Index and
Cash flows ignored Accounting Rate of Return. Assume discount rate is 10%.
•If all projects are independent, which project your going to recommend for your
Time value ignored
organization. Prove your answer with reasons.
Arbitrary cut-off Net cash flow (LKR Mn.)
Projects
1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
A 20 25 34 42
B 20 20 23 22
31 C 28 28 28 28
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D 19 25 38 36
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