Materi Materi Apa

MIRAE ASSET SEKURITAS INDONESIA
Technical Analysis Workshop

ITC Roxy 18 November 2017
This material is prepared by PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia for investment recommendation purpose, prohibited to be used as advertisement and distributed to the
investors. The information contained has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty is made to the accuracy and completeness of the information.
However, we disclaim any responsibility and liability of this material arising against legal issues regarding customers’ investment outcome in any situations.
Beginner Guide to Stock Trading Strategies
WIDIARTO WIBOWO
Investment Trader
This material is prepared by PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia for investment recommendation purpose, prohibited to be used as advertisement and distributed to the
investors. The information contained has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty is made to the accuracy and completeness of the information.
However, we disclaim any responsibility and liability of this material arising against legal issues regarding customers’ investment outcome in any situations.
Table of Content
1. How to start Trading
2. The Market Cycles of Investor Emotions
3. Market Cycle, Characteristic & Trading Rules
4. Technical Indicator
5. Risk Tolerance & Risk Capacity
6. HOTS Trading Plan ( Multichart & EZ Condition)

1. How to Start Trading
Effectively Using Trading

Technology
How to Create Trading Plan.
Risk & Reward in Trading Styles.
The Worst Mistakes.
Money Management.
% Gain to Recover Loss.
3 | Widiarto Wibowo – Beginner Guide to Stock Trading | 18/11/2017 PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
1A. Effectively Using Trading Technology
 Market Analysis
 Index Composite (0153) : Mengetahui Index sektor yang menjadi market mover.
 MultiChart (0500) : Menganalisa Chart (Harga & Volume).
 Financial Statement (0024) : Membandingkan L/K emiten dalam satu sektor.
 EZ Stock (1991) : Menganalisa Order, Trade Book, Konsensus Rekomendasi.
 EZ Ranking (1993) : Melihat Freq,Volume,Value, TopGainer/Losser saham harian.
 News (0901) : Berita Stock Market,Industry,Economic News dan Research.
 Corporate News (0900) : Melihat Semua Jadwal Aksi Korporasi Emiten dan IPO.
 Matrik Mini Stock price (1002) : Menampilkan informasi Tabel Order Book saham.
 Order Execution
 Portfolio (0800) : Melihat Nilai Aset, Potensial Gain/Loss & Chart Portfolio Return.
 Buy Order (0801) : Mengeksekusi Order Beli.
 Sell Order (0802) : Mengeksekusi Order Jual.
 Order List (0805) : Melihat status order,Melakukan Amend atau Withdraw Order.
1B. Building Trading Plan ("Every battle is won before it is fought.“ - Sun Tzu's)
 Skill Assessment Sudahkah anda menguji kemampuan dalam Paper Trading, Apakah Anda
yakin itu akan berhasil di Trading Sesungguhnya.
 Mental Preparation Apakah anda siap secara Emosi dan Psikologis untuk Trading.
 Set Risk Level Berapa % resiko dari setiap Trade terhadap Total Portfolio Anda ?
 Set Goals Tentukan Profit Target & Minimum Risk/Reward Rasio dalam tiap-tiap trade?
 Do Your Homework Perhatikan kondisi Pasar dan Makro ekonomi.
 Set Exit Rules Kebanyakan dari investor tidak memperhatikan kapan dan dimana
 harus menjual (Exit point) karena tidak mau rugi.
 Set Entry Rules Lakukan pembelian (Entry point) dengan objektif (kalkulasi
Risk/Reward ratio dan gunakan Trading strategi.
 Money management Ketahui kapan anda harus bertaruh dalam jumlah besar dan kapan dalam jumlah kecil.
(Berapa uang yang anda dapatkan saat anda menang & Berapa uang yang anda
habiskan saat anda kalah).
 Keep Excellent Record Buatlah Catatan dan cari tahu kenapa anda menang & kenapa anda kalah.
1C. Risk and Reward in Trading
Risk and Reward ratio by Trading Styles.
Scalper Trader Day Trader Swing Trader Position Trader

Profit Target : 515 Profit Target : 530 (R1) Profit Target : 545 (R2) Profit Target : 560 (R3)
Price : 500 Price : 500 Price : 500 Price : 500
Stop Loss : 485 Stop Loss : 485 Stop Loss : 485 Stop Loss : 485
Calc : (500-470) / (530-500) Calc : (500-485) / (530-500) Calc : (500-485) / (545-500) Calc : (500-485) / (560-500)
Ratio : 1 : 1 Ratio : 1 : 2 Ratio : 1 : 3 Ratio : 1 : 4
1. Raise your downside target to attempt to 2. Exit the trade if the risk and reward
achieve an acceptable ratio. become unfavorable.
”Being more conservative with your Risk is always better than being more aggressive
with your Reward”
1D. The Worst Mistakes Novice Traders
 Letting losses mount Tidak mampu mengambil kerugian kecil dengan cepat & bertahan
pada posisi kalah dengan harapan saham akan naik kembali.
 Failure to implement Stop-Loss Orders

Tidak disiplin dalam melakukan Stop-Loss atau bahkan Tidak memiliki
aturan Stop-Loss yang baik pada setiap transaksi.
 Not having a Trading Plan Tidak memiliki “Rencana Trading” yang jelas atau tidak disiplin
dalam menggunakan Trading Plan.
 Trading To Frequently Frekuensi trading yang berlebihan (Overtrading) untuk mengejar

keuntungan jangka pendek.
 Excessive leverage penggunaan transaksi margin yang berlebihan dan tidak di dukung
oleh technical Trading plan yang baik.
 Shirking Homework Tidak melakukan beberapa penelitian yang memadai sebelum melakukan
Trading saham.
 Following The Herd Mengikuti Isue isue di pasar dari kelompok tertentu tanpa melakukan
analisa yang cukup.
1E. Money Management
These Guidelines are fairly standard and can be modified to trader’s needs.
Total invested fund should be limited to 50% - 70%
of total capital.
Total amount in any market group or sector should

be limited to 20% - 25% of total equity.
Total commitment in any one market or stock should

be limited to 10% - 15% of total equity.
Total amount risked in any one market or stock

should be limited to 5% of total equity.
”Its about how much money you get when you win & how much money you
spent when you loss”
1F. Percentage (%) Gain to Recover Loss
”The bigger the loss you take, the harder it is to recover”
2a. The Market Cycle of Emotions
”Fear and Greed are not the only emotions in trading”
2b. The Market Cycle of Emotions
Optimism A positive outlook encourages us about the future and leading us to buy stocks.
Thrill At this point we cannot believe our success and begin to comment on
“How smart we are”.
Euphoria Having seen every decision result in quick, easy profits, we begin to ignore risk and
expect every trade to become profitable.
Anxiety For the first time the market moves against us. having never stared at unrealized losses.
Fear The market realities become confusing. We believe the stocks we own will never move
in our favor.
Desperate Not knowing how to act, we grasp at any idea that will allow us to get back to
breakeven.
Panic Having exhausted all ideas, we are at a loss for what to do next.
Hope Eventually we return to the realization that markets move in cycles, and we begin
looking for our next opportunity.
2c. The Market Cycle of Emotions (Evidence based)
3a. Market Cycle
Accumulation – Up Trend – Distribution – Down Trend
3b. Market Cycle and Characteristic
Investor Emotions in Market Phase

Accumulation Up Trend Distribution Down Trend
Depression Optimism Euphoria Desperation
Hope Excitement Anxiety Panic
Relief Thrill Denial Capitulation
Fear Despondency
Characteristic of Market Phase

Low Volatility High Volatility Low Volatility High Volatility
Low Volume High Volume Low Volume High Volume
Trading Range Bullish Trend Trading Range Bearish Trend
Blow Off Selling Climax
3c. Market Cycle, Indicator & Trading Rules
Indicator and Technical Study

Stochastic, RSI Moving Average (MA) Stochastic, RSI Moving Average (MA)
ATR, Bollinger Band MACD, DMI, ATR, ATR, Bollinger Band MACD, DMI, ATR
ADX, Volume Oscillator ADX, Volume Oscillator ADX, Volume Oscilator ADX, Volume Oscillator
Trendline Volume Ratio Trendline Volume Ratio
Trading Rules
Buy @ Oversold Buy on Weakness Reduce Trading Cash in or Reduce
Position Trading Position
Sell @ Overbought Buy & Hold Buy @ Oversold Sell Short
Buy @ Support Buy @ Reversal up Sell @ Break Support Sell @ Break Support
Sell @ Resistance Trailling Stop Protective Stop Loss Protective Stop Loss
4a. Implementation of Technical Indicator
Technical Indicator : An indicator is a mathematical calculation that can be applied to a

security's price or volume which result a value that is used to anticipate
future changes in prices.
Trendness Trend Follower Oscillator (Leading) Market Strength Volatility

Indicators Indicators Indicators Indicators Indicators
•Trend
Average
Follower • MACD
A positive outlook•encourages
Stochastic us about the
• Accumulation • Bollinger
future and leading us to buy stocks.
Directional Oscillator Distribution Bands.
IndeX (ADX) • Directional
Movement • William %R • Money Flow • Average True
• Vertical Index Range.
horizontal • Moving • Relative
Filter Average Strength Index • Volume • Standart
Ocillator deviation.
• Parabolic SAR • Commodity
Channel Index • On Balance • Standard Error
volume Bands
4b. ADX “Trend Indicator”
Trend Follower A positive outlook encourages us about the future and leading us to buy stocks.
4b. Average Directional Index (ADX)
Adalah indikator teknikal yang digunakan untuk mengukur nilai kekuatan dan pelemahan dari Trend
harga saham dalam periode waktu tertentu, dengan memberikan nilai dari 0 hingga 100.
Major Technical Principles :
 Semakin tinggi nilai Average Directional Index (ADX) maka semakin kuat Trend (kenaikan atau penurunan) harga yang
terjadi.
 Semakin rendah nilai Average Directional Index (ADX) maka semakin lemah Trend (kenaikan atau penurunan) harga
yang terjadi.
 Penguatan Trend terjadi ketika nilai ADX diatas 25.

 Pelemahan Trend terjadi ketika nilai ADX dibawah 25.
4c. MACD “Trend follower Indicator”
4c. Moving Average Convergen - Divergen (MACD)
Adalah sebuah momentum indikator pelacak trend yang menunjukkan hubungan antara dua harga rata rata
(average price) dalam suatu periode waktu, yang diperoleh dengan cara mengurangi rata rata harga 12 hari
dengan rata rata harga 26 hari, sehingga terlihat kecenderungan arah harga saat ini (naik atau turun) .
 Ketika garis MA12 hari bergerak keatas melampaui garis MA26 hari maka harga cenderung bergerak naik (Bullish).
 Ketika MA12 hari bergerak kebawah memotong garis MA26 hari maka harga cenderung bergerak turun (Bearish).
 Kenaikan harga saham cenderung meningkat ketika MACD bergerak di area positif.
 Penurunan harga saham cenderung meningkat ketika MACD bergerak di area negatif.
4d. Stochastic “Trading Range Indicator”
4d. Stochastic Oscillator
Adalah sebuah momentum indikator yang membandingkan harga saham saat ini dengan rentang harga
tertinggi dan harga terendah saham tersebut dalam suatu periode waktu tertentu, sehingga terlihat apakah
harga saham saat ini relatif masih murah atau sudah mahal dalam rentang periode waktu tersebut.
 Penjualan saham dilakukan ketika harga bergerak naik melewati garis Overbought (Jenuh Beli).
 Penjualan saham dilakukan ketika Stochastic bergerak turun memotong garis moving average nya.
 Pembelian saham dilakukan ketika harga bergerak turun menembus garis Oversold (Jenuh Jual).
 Pembelian saham dilakukan ketika Stochastic bergerak naik memotong garis moving average nya.
4e. Volume Oscillator
4e. Volume Oscillator
Adalah momentum indikator yang membandingkan nilai moving average (rata rata bergerak) Volume 5
hari (satu Minggu) dengan rata rata bergerak volume 20 hari (satu Bulan), dalam periode waktu
tertentu.
 Volume Oscillator dengan nilai positif menunjukkan volume jangka lebih pendek dominan dari volume jangka lebih
panjang.
 Volume Oscillator dengan nilai negatif menunjukkan volume jangka lebih panjang dominan dari volume jangka lebih
pendek.
4f. ATR “Volatility Indicator”
4f. Average True Range (ATR)
Adalah indikator teknikal yang mengukur nilai rata rata rentang fluktuasi pergerakan harga saham
tertinggi dan terendah dalam periode waktu tertentu.
 Nilai ATR akan meningkat ketika harga bergerak semakin tinggi (higher high) atau semakin rendah (lower low) dalam
periode waktu tertentu.
 Jika nilai kenaikan atau penurunan harga saham dalam suatu periode tertentu lebih besar dari nilai ATR pada periode
tersebut maka kenaikan atau penurunan harga cenderung akan berlanjut .
5. Risk Tolerance and Risk Capacity
 Risk Tolerance : The amount of risk that investor is “comfortable taking” or the degree of
uncertainty that an investor is able to handle.
 Investment time horizon  [Shortterm  Conservative] & [Longterm  Aggressive].

 Net worth & Risk Capital  Risk capital is money available to invest or trade
that will affect your lifestyle if lost.
 Investment objectives  how much risk do you really want to take with those funds ?
 Investment experience  Are you new to investing and trading ?
 Risk Capacity : The amount of risk that investor must take in order to reach
the financial goals.
 Balance of Risk :
 Risk Tolerance < Risk Capacity  “Shortfall or not achieve in financial Goals”
 Risk Tolerance > Risk Capacity  “Undue risk may be taken by the investor”
“Investors who take on too many risks tend to panic and sell at the wrong time”
6a. HOTS Multichart (0500)
Price Channel I ATR I Stochastic Oscillator I MACD I Volume
6b. HOTS EZ Condition (0111)
“A tools to find high probability setups for short-term positions”
Setting :
Set Condition Search for Click Load to display
Price and/or Volume. the Stocks.
6c. HOTS Multichart & EZ-Condition
“A tools to find high probability setups for short-term positions”
Export Multichart ke Microsoft Excel :
Stock Date Open High Low Close Price Ch Upper Price Ch Lower ATR Sto %K Sto %D MACD Signal Volume
BBKP 6/22/2017 625 635 625 630 640 615 10.5 41.24% 34.58% 0.22 0.44 75,251
Rubah Excel menjadi Trading Plan

Stock Date Open High Low Close Overbought Oversold Price Range Stochastic Stoploss MACD Tgt Price Volume (lot)
BBKP 6/22/2017 625 635 625 630 640.00 615.00 10.5 41.24% 620 0.22 646 75,251
1 Ganti kolom "Price ch Upper" menjadi "Overbought".

2 Ganti kolom "Price ch Lower" menjadi "Oversold".
3 Ganti kolom ATR menjadi "Price Range".
4 Ganti kolom Sto%K menjadi "Stochastic".
5 Ganti kolom Sto%D menjadi "STOPLOSS" dengan Formula : = ((High+Low)/2)-Price Range
6 Ganti Kolom Signal menjadi "TARGET PRICE" dengan Formula : = Close + (Price Range * 1.5)
HOTS Multichart & EZ Condition sebagai Trading Plan harian

Stock Date Open High Low Close Overbought Oversold Price Range Stochastic Stoploss MACD Tgt Price Volume (lot)
PWON 6/22/2017 615 615 605 615 630 600 12 39.31% 598 -2.32 633 166,450
HRUM 6/22/2017 2,010 2,040 1,995 1,995 2,220 2,000 58.5 4.55% 1,959 -54.72 2,083 31,188
SSMS 6/22/2017 1,600 1,680 1,600 1,680 1,670 1,540 50 69.59% 1,590 -18.75 1,755 508,574
BBKP 6/22/2017 625 635 625 630 640 615 10.5 41.24% 620 0.22 646 75,251
* Untuk membuat Trading Plan mingguan : Gunakan multichart dengan Timeframe Weekly Chart
Thank You

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MIRAE ASSET SEKURITAS INDONESIA

Technical Analysis Workshop

1. How to start Trading

2. The Market Cycles of Investor Emotions

3. Market Cycle, Characteristic & Trading Rules

5. Risk Tolerance & Risk Capacity

6. HOTS Trading Plan ( Multichart & EZ Condition)

Effectively Using Trading

How to Create Trading Plan.

Risk & Reward in Trading Styles.

The Worst Mistakes.

% Gain to Recover Loss.

 MultiChart (0500) : Menganalisa Chart (Harga & Volume).

 Financial Statement (0024) : Membandingkan L/K emiten dalam satu sektor.

 EZ Stock (1991) : Menganalisa Order, Trade Book, Konsensus Rekomendasi.

 EZ Ranking (1993) : Melihat Freq,Volume,Value, TopGainer/Losser saham harian.

 News (0901) : Berita Stock Market,Industry,Economic News dan Research.

 Do Your Homework Perhatikan kondisi Pasar dan Makro ekonomi.

 harus menjual (Exit point) karena tidak mau rugi.

Scalper Trader Day Trader Swing Trader Position Trader

Price : 500 Price : 500 Price : 500 Price : 500

Ratio : 1 : 1 Ratio : 1 : 2 Ratio : 1 : 3 Ratio : 1 : 4

 Failure to implement Stop-Loss Orders

 Trading To Frequently Frekuensi trading yang berlebihan (Overtrading) untuk mengejar

Total amount in any market group or sector should

Total commitment in any one market or stock should

Total amount risked in any one market or stock

”The bigger the loss you take, the harder it is to recover”

Investor Emotions in Market Phase

Characteristic of Market Phase

Indicator and Technical Study

Technical Indicator : An indicator is a mathematical calculation that can be applied to a

Trendness Trend Follower Oscillator (Leading) Market Strength Volatility

Major Technical Principles :

 Penguatan Trend terjadi ketika nilai ADX diatas 25.

Major Technical Principles :

Major Technical Principles :

Major Technical Principles :

Major Technical Principles :

 Investment time horizon  [Shortterm  Conservative] & [Longterm  Aggressive].

Rubah Excel menjadi Trading Plan

1 Ganti kolom "Price ch Upper" menjadi "Overbought".

HOTS Multichart & EZ Condition sebagai Trading Plan harian

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