1 Predicting the geomorphological responses of gravel-bed rivers to flow and

2 sediment source perturbations at the watershed scale: An application in an

3 Alpine watershed

5 Hernán A. Alcayaga a*, Luca Mao b, Philippe Belleudyc

6 *Corresponding author

8 1. Introduction

9 Rivers have been modified by human activities for centuries, with a remarkable

10 acceleration since the industrial revolution. One of the most frequent issues in river

11 management is the prediction of the fluvial system behavior due to anthropogenic

12 actions. The assessment of these responses is always complex because there is

13 a large number of variables and processes to consider, and also interactions and

14 feedbacks between processes. In fact, during the last fifty years, fluvial

15 geomorphologists have developed qualitative and quantitative models to predict

16 the behavior of rivers. One of the most important drivers that motivated these

17 investigations was to understand the channel river responses to natural and

18 human induced disturbances (Wohl, 2014). There are many possible types of

19 human alterations on fluvial systems, including gravel mining, river training,

20 watershed transformation (land use, reforestation, change in runoff properties),

21 including hydropower development. Hydropower development comprises the

22 construction of dams, reservoirs and diversion, is considered one of the most

23 relevant and impactful causes of fluvial system alteration (Grant, 2012). The
24 changes produced by dams and diversions on fluvial processes – mainly alteration

25 of both sediment and water fluxes – can be dramatic (Petts & Gurnell, 2013).

26 Despite the large amount of technical and scientific literature about the alterations

27 of human activities, in particular large dams, on river morphology (e.g., Graf, 2006;

28 Schmidt and Wilcock, 2008; Baker et al. 2011; Csiki and Rhoads, 2010; Draut et

29 al., 2011), this field of investigation is still of significant interest for both engineers

30 and scientists. Historically, the majority of these investigations have considered

31 the morphological consequences of single source of disturbance at the scale of

32 river reach. The response to multiple drivers and stressors in a watershed is still a

33 considerable challenge. In fact, there are only limited studies about the drivers of

34 alterations at watershed or regional scales (e.g. Gao et al., 2015).

35 Engineers, geologists and geographers have developed tools to study, analyze

36 and predict the responses of river morphology to human disturbances. A

37 classification of these tools was presented by Grant (2012). Based upon Grant’s

38 work we reclassified it into the two following classes:

39 1. Observation and understanding the response system based on study cases

40 This class includes single case studies, empirical analysis and synthesis of

41 multiple cases with derivation of some sort of systemic analysis.

42 2. Predictive modeling: from detailed deterministic to conceptual models.

43 More detailed model outputs in turn require more detailed inputs for

44 construction and validation. In general these models are applied only for

45 single reaches and the input data are seldom fully obtained. Numerical

46 deterministic models are capable of simulating erosion, transport and

47 sedimentation processes in 1, 2 or 3D, including the transient period

48 between the perturbation and the response of the system. However, while

49 deterministic models can provide accurate results, a substantial constraint

50 of this approach is the need for highly accurate data inputs that are not

51 generally available at the watershed scale, particularly, when the spatial and

52 temporal scales are larges (watershed and couple of decades) and if more

53 than one perturbation is considered. This kind of model can be simplified in

54 analytical/predictive models based on sediment transport equations, but still

55 requires considerable efforts of modeling and with lower confidence and

56 weak predictive value. Conceptual models assume that the fluvial system is

57 in morphological equilibrium after perturbation (Buffington, 2012). These

58 conceptual and analytical models can provide valuable results in terms of

59 morphological trends or trajectories, but do not inform on the time involved

60 in the responses.

61 For this paper we propose a predictive tool for geomorphological trajectories of the

62 gravel-bed rivers based on (i) conceptual models in which relations were derived

63 from the observation and understanding of study cases, using the experiences

64 from systemic analyses; (ii) that take into account the effect of disturbances of an

65 initial state of the river system and; (iii) can be applicable and developed at the

66 watershed scale with assessment of the connectivity from the upstream part of the

67 watershed to the downstream reaches of the river.

68 According the objectives and layout for this paper are,

69 - To develop a simplified and versatile framework for conceptual modellings

70 for a wide range of perturbations; and

71 - To test model functionality on a the Isère watershed, which has had

72 hydropower equipment installed during the last 60 years

73

74 2. State of art and context

75 The following sections present a relevant background that guides the analysis and

76 interpretations of the geomorphological responses of gravel-bed rivers to

77 disturbances. Because of the large spatial variability of processes and forms at the

78 scale of a complex watershed, and due to the paucity of input data, a conceptual-

79 analytical model approach was chosen to predict the river morphology response

80 using the Isère Alpine watershed as a test case and the complex hydropower

81 systems present in the watershed as disturbance sources.

82 The literature reveals that, conceptually, the current understanding of fluvial

83 response to disturbances is generally based on: (i) a general dependence of

84 geomorphological dynamics on first order drivers such as hydrological flow regime

85 and sediment supply conditions (second order drivers are for example large woody

86 debris and animals); (ii) the ability of the system to adapt, in case of alteration on

87 hydrological flow regime and sediment supply; and (iii) the propagation of these

88 disturbances with the gradual attenuation of these effects downstream, due to

89 tributaries that supply water and sediment fluxes.

90
91 2.1. Fluvial morphological responses: driver variables and responses variables

92 (action and reaction).

93 The morphological characteristics of a channel (such as cross section, slope,

94 sinuosity, sediment grain size and distribution) are the result of erosion, transport

95 and, sedimentation processes. According to Thorne (1997), river morphology can

96 be rationally explained if distinctions are made between the different variables

97 involved on these processes. Variables can be classified as driver variables and

98 responses (adjustment or fit) variables, which respond and adjust to the driver

99 variables. Thorne introduced a third category, called boundary conditions

100 corresponding to the internal characteristics of the river reach, such as riparian

101 vegetation and bank confinement, which can limit the lateral displacement of the

102 channel.

103

104 Driver variables for a river reach are considered from upstream watershed input

105 conditions: these are spatially distributed variables such as the climate and

106 geology, which determine the topography, soil, and the natural type of vegetation

107 cover. Another relevant control is human activities (e.g. land use, management

108 practices, hydraulics works). These variables define the first order of local drivers,

109 namely the sediment and water fluxes (Werritty, 1997; Church, 2002; Grant et al.,

110 2003; Buffington, 2012). However, some authors also give a relevant importance

111 to large wood and in-channel vegetation (e.g. Buffington et al., 2003 and 2012;

112 Piégay and Gurnell, 1997; and in this ESPL special volume Takebayashi, 2016

113 and; Bertoldi and Ruiz-Villanueva 2016), which are considered as second order
114 drivers if compared with sediments and hydrological flow regimes at the spatial

115 scale of this investigation. It is for this reason that hydrological flow regimens and

116 sediment supply are considered as the more important drivers variables in this

117 study.

118 A response variable can change due to a disturbance on a driver variable,

119 absorbing or modifying the morphological characteristics of the fluvial system.

120 These responses depend on the magnitude, intensity and duration of the

121 disturbance, river typology (i.e. their sensitivity to changes according Schumm,

122 1991), and on the geomorphic activity of its tributaries. A first type of response

123 corresponds to an accommodation of the morphological characteristics of the river

124 (adaptation without changes) as a part of its inherent variability. A second type of

125 response corresponds to an abrupt change of the morphological characteristics,

126 known as fluvial metamorphosis (Piégay and Schumm, 2003). According to

127 Schumm (1973), to achieve a morphological transformation of this kind, a river

128 must first surpass a morphological threshold (see also Schumm, 1977; Champpell,

129 1983; Werritty, 1997; and Huggett, 2012). In this work, nine response variables

130 were selected to describe the reaction of the fluvial morphology due to a

131 perturbation on the driver variables, which are presented later (in section 3.2 and

132 Table 1, first column).

133 Boundary conditions (internal conditions of the reach) express the degree of

134 freedom of mobility. For the development of this model, the local singularities and

135 some limitations of the variability of adjustment variables were taken into account.

136 The lateral mobility of the riverbed can be restricted if the riverbed it is confined or
137 semi-confined, for example if there are physical barriers such as levees or by

138 biological characteristic of the riverbank, in particular the role of the riparian

139 vegetation (e.g. Tal and Paola, 2007). Horizontal mobility is determined by the

140 storage of bed sediments, in terms of the quantity of sediments available to be

141 transported and depth of this layer to bedrock (rock outcrops fix the bed level).

142

143 2.2. The equilibrium conditions and time scale of changes

144 Riverbeds are constantly adjusting and adapting in response to the sequences of

145 flood events associated with the regional climate and local meteorological

146 conditions.

147 In modeling and predicting channel changes, the concept of equilibrium condition

148 is often used (Buffington, 2012; Church and Ferguson, 2015). In this work, we

149 consider a river reach to be in equilibrium when there are no disturbances on driver

150 variables. This implies that the sediment supplies (from upstream reaches and

151 from hillslopes and banks within the same reach) are substantially equivalent to

152 the transport capacity over a time period of several years. This assumption allows

153 for geometric (bedforms, depth, width and local slope) and grain size changes at

154 a shorter time scale, but considers these variations negligible over the long-term.

155 The initial condition of the river morphology in this work corresponds to the current

156 state of the river before a disturbance to the driver variables.

157 A fluvial system reacts to a change of water and sediment regimes at a wide range

158 of spatial and temporal scales. According to Graf (1977) and Brandt (2000b),

159 channel morphology changes rapidly after a disturbance, followed by an

160 exponential decay in change. Williams and Wolman (1984) also showed that the

161 evolution of bed level in 12 rivers after dam construction was fast immediately after

162 construction, and gradually the effects decreased until stabilization.

163 Buffington (2012), based on the Knigton’s work (1984) presented responses

164 variables in alluvial rivers as function of the spatial and temporal scales ranging in

165 orders of magnitude. These changes can last from minutes (for local changes in

166 grain size and textural patches) to many decades or centuries (for stream gradient

167 and channel sinuosity). Taking into account these physical processes in rivers, the

168 order of the temporal scales considered is from many years to some decades.

169 These conceptual models, including the model presented in this work, do not

170 consider the temporal evolution, which is only possible to take in account in

171 numerical models.

172 Gregory (2006) and Gregory and Downs (2008) used the Schumm (1979) and Graf

173 (1977) approaches to describe the kinetics of river response after a disturbance. If

174 a system in equilibrium (initial equilibrium) is perturbed modifying a driver variable,

175 a transient period will start. The transient period is called the response time,

176 composed of a reaction time and relaxation time. During the transient period the

177 system evolves to achieve a new equilibrium state, marking the end of this

178 transient. According to many previous studies (Phillips, 1996; Grant et al., 2003;

179 Petts and Gurnell, 2005; Grant, 2012, Ziliani and Surian, 2012), for an

180 homogeneous river reach, the response to a disturbance can be conceptualized

181 as a trajectory (from an initial equilibrium state to a new equilibrium state). Each

182 response variable can have a different response time and the response time of the
183 whole river system can last from decades to centuries or millennia.

184

185 2.3. From upstream to downstream: river reaches segmentation and connectivity

186 of hydro-sedimentary fluxes.

187 The river network of a watershed is naturally or artificially segmented into different

188 homogeneous reaches, taking into consideration their morphological

189 characteristics and the type of disturbance and its localization (e.g. changes in

190 sediment fluxes in a specific location). The morphological characteristics of the

191 reaches are based mainly on bed slope, lateral mobility (river bank conditions:

192 confined and whether), vertical mobility (a fixed bed level) and river confluences.

193 Modifications on the continuity of water and sediment fluxes are two important

194 disturbances on the more relevant fluvial geomorphic drivers (water and sediment).

195 The continuity of these fluxes can be affected if the magnitudes, frequencies and

196 timing are modified from an initial reference condition.

197 For the tested case (application of the model to the Isère river watershed) the

198 sources of disturbance taken into account were the hydropower structures. The

199 structures considered to partition a reach in the hydrographic network are, intake

200 water points, release water points, and large dams, considering that these kinds of

201 structures can affects the processes of sediments transport and hydrological flow

202 regimes. Taking in account the timescale of the river response, structures like

203 barrage dams (diversion dam which large gates) capable to generate flushing;

204 allow the continuity of sediments transport (considered as a transparent structure

205 for the continuity of the sediment transport). The river confluences for the more
206 important streams in terms of sediments yield and water discharge are also

207 locations where the river network is segmented.

208 From upstream to downstream in the river network, hydrological and sedimentary

209 disturbances are transmitted and attenuated by the compensation of the water and

210 sediment supplies from tributary streams. In the case of the sediments surplus or

211 deficit, the effects can also be balanced by sediments delivered from the bed and

212 banks or sedimented in the bed and banks, translated as a channel aggradation

213 or degradation and narrowing or widening.

214

215 3. Description of the proposed conceptual model

216 This section describes how changes on the main drivers are computed. A proposal

217 is made relatively to initial equilibrium conditions in the present state of the model.

218 Proposed formulations are simplified and can be discussed, improved and adapted

219 to other cases and particular situations. Their use in the framework of the

220 conceptual model is presented at the end of the section.

221

222 3.1. The quantification of changes on driver variables:

223 a. - Changes on the hydrological flow regime

224 In hydrological sciences and engineering projects, an hydrological flow regime is

225 characterized by the magnitude, frequency, timing, duration and variability of

226 discharges. Large and infrequent floods can completely change the morphology of

227 a system (Tamminga et al., 2015), but low and constant discharge can also

228 contribute to evolve the river morphology (Asahi et al., 2013). From a
229 morphological point of view, two characteristic discharges are the most important,

230 namely i) the critical discharge associated to the incipient sediment motion (e.g.

231 Recking, 2009 and 2013) and ii) the channel-forming discharge. The critical

232 discharge depends on the size of bed sediments (e.g. d50 or d84) and the local

233 channel slope and channel cross-section.

234 The channel-forming or dominant discharge (e.g. Wolman and Miller, 1960;

235 Leopold et al., 1964; Andrews, 1980) can be considered the discharge that (as in

236 steady state) produces the same morphological result as the combined effects of

237 the entire hydrological flow regime. Even if difficult to assess, channel-forming

238 discharge is often used for river restoration and natural channel design (Doyle et

239 al., 2007; Lave 2009), and it is usually considered as: a) being equal to the bankfull

240 discharge (Navratil et al., 2006), b) the effective discharge (calculated according

241 to the Wolman and Miller, 1960 procedure), and c) the discharge associated with

242 a certain return period (see also, FISRWG, 1998), which in most cases roughly

243 corresponds to a 2 year return period (Biedenharn et al., 2008).

244 In this paper describing the first version of the model, the channel-forming

245 discharge is identified as the discharge with a return period of two years. For each

246 reach, flow duration curves are used to determine the change in the number of the

247 days that the channel-forming discharge was equal or was exceeded during the

248 period before and after the perturbation on the hydrological flow.

249 The indicator used to subsequently assess the hydrological alteration downstream

250 in each river reach was calculated as (Alcayaga et al., 2012; Alcayaga, 2013):

NQ post
251 FQ  1 (1)
NQ pre
252 where FQ is the Indicator of alteration for hydrological regime based in the

253 frequency change of the channel-forming discharge, and NQpre and NQpost:

254 Numbers of days or percentile of exceedance of the channel-forming discharge

255 before and after the alteration, respectively.

256 Evidently, this choice is a simple approach and other approaches can be adapted

257 to compute FQ, according on data availability and the specific characteristics of

258 the site. In every case, FQ is a proxy to quantify the alteration of the “energy”

259 available for morphological transformations of the channel. FQ=-1 means that in

260 the final state, the transport capacity is null; FQ=0 in the case of unchanged

261 conditions, and FQ positive means an increase of the energy and transport

262 capacity.

263

264 b.- Changes on sediment supply

265 Although bedload can represent a relatively small percentage of the total sediment

266 load (Collins and Dunne, 1990; Turowski et al., 2010), bedload determines the

267 morphology and habitat of gravel-bed rivers (Kondolf, 1997). For this reason only

268 bedload volumes and sources are considered in this study.

269 Particularly, volumes of sediment available on internal sources (banks and channel

270 bed), external sources (hillslopes), and the degree of connectivity between

271 hillslopes and streams are considered. To evaluate the intensity of sediment

272 supplied to each reach we applied a simplified method, which only takes in account

273 the external supply from both the hillslope and from the upstream reach, as a

274 continuity function of the sediment transport.

275 As our objective was to build a simplified model to use at the watershed scale, then

276 in-channel processes relative to sediment supply (internal sources) were not taken

277 into account, due to the complexity of the temporal and spatial scales.

278 Following the same logic to assess the alteration on the hydrological flow regime,

279 the indicator we used was (Alcayaga et al., 2012; Alcayaga 2013):

SS post
280 AS  1 (2)
SS pre

281 where AS is an indicator of alteration for sediments supply (bed load sediment),

282 based on the changes of the intensity of sediment supply from upstream reaches,

283 and lateral sediments supply in the reach under analysis, and SSpre and SSpost are

284 potential intensity of the sediments supply estimated with a simplified method,

285 before and after a disturbance in the continuity of the supply, respectively.

286 AS=-1 means that in the final stage, there is no sediment supply from the upstream

287 reach; AS=0 in the case of unchanged conditions, and AS=+1 means a doubling

288 of the sediment sources upstream of the reach under consideration.

289 In the present state of our model, the intensity of sediment supply SS of a sub-

290 basin that drains to a river reach is the combination of hillslope capacity and of

291 outlet properties for transferring it downstream. Hillslope capacity of the sub-basin

292 is estimated using a semi-qualitative approach, considering the following three

293 variables: lithology (surface geology), land cover and relief (hillslope gradients). All

294 these variables represented in a Geographical Information System (GIS), were

295 classified according to their capacity to deliver sediments (see Tables 2, 3 and 4).

296 More details are given in section 4 of this paper. The result is a new GIS layer

297 representing an overlapping of the previously classified layers (Table 5). This layer
298 represents the potential supply of sediments from the hillslopes and is called SS.

299 This combination and classification assumes that all three factors (geology, terrain

300 gradient and land cover) have an equivalent impact on the sediment supply. SS

301 hillslope is computed from pre and post values as the sum of individual pixel

302 indexes within the sub-basin, considering the path of the sediment in the watershed

303 river network (upstream - downstream). In the case of an obstruction in the

304 sediment path such as a lake, a reservoir, check dams, or a large dam at the outlet

305 of the sub-basin, there is no continuity of bedload downstream (Brune, 1953; Lewis

306 et al., 2013; Kondolf et al., 2014) and the above-computed hillslope capacity is

307 modified in consequence.

308

309 3.2. Disturbance vector

310 The values of FQ and AS for each river reach form a vector named the disturbance

311 vector. The direction of these vectors is associated with a trend or trajectory of

312 channel changes and its magnitude represents the intensity of the perturbation.

313 a.-The direction of the disturbance vector and morphological trends

314 The indicators FQ and AS are represented as two principal axes forming a

315 Cartesian coordinate system (the explanations hereafter refer to Figure 1), defining

316 four directions associated with the angles (0°, 90°, 180° and 270°). The FQ axis

317 (positive or negative) is a representation of the incremental or decremented of the

318 river reach “energy”. In the same way the AS axe (positive or negative) is a core

319 of the increment or decrease in sediment supply from upstream. Two secondary

320 axes are also relevant and they define others four directions (45°, 135°, 225° and
321 315°). For the direction 45°, the fluvial processes increased in intensity (more

322 sediment supply and an increment of the channel-forming discharge frequency).

323 For the direction 225°, the processes decreased in intensity (less sediment supply

324 and a reduction of the channel forming discharge frequency). These two directions

325 (45° and 225°) bisect the Cartesian plane, with zones associated with two basic

326 morphological responses of the channel: sedimentation and erosion. The first zone

327 –sedimentation- corresponds to an increment of AS (increase of sediment supply)

328 and a decrement of FQ (diminution of the discharges frequency capable of doing

329 morphologic work). The second zone –erosion- occurs just the opposite, when AS

330 decreased and FQ increased. In the border of these two directions (45° and 225°)

331 the morphological response of the channel depends on other more complex and

332 specific factors, such as the geological channel history (Grant et al., 2003).

333 All these eight directions (defined by the four axes) correspond to morphological

334 trends or trajectories of the expected changes in the channel (see Table 1) based

335 on an extensive review of the literature, empirical relations, case studies, and

336 conceptual models, which have been developed during the last sixty years. The

337 main references we used to associate the eight directions with to build this model

338 are: Lane (1955); Schumm (1969; 1977); Petts (1980); Williams and Wolman

339 (1984); Kellerhals and Church (1989); Brandt (2000a); Brandt (2000b); Huang and

340 Nanson (2002); Grant et al., (2003); Grant (2012); Petts and Gurnell (2005);

341 Schmidt and Wilcock (2008); and Dust and Wohl (2012). Modified from Alcayaga

342 et al. (2012) and Alcayaga (2013), Table 1 and Figure 1 show the nine

343 morphological variables (bed elevation, bed slope, width, depth, wetted area, d50,
344 terrace formation, and colonization of vegetation) their responses, associate with

345 the eight directions (as angles in degree).

346

347 b.- The magnitude and continuity of the disturbance vector

348 The disturbance vector for each river reach has an origin from an initial non-

349 perturbed condition (the origin of the Cartesian coordinate system) and an end

350 point given by each FQ and AS; this distance represents the magnitude of the

351 disturbance vector. The magnitude corresponds to the intensity of the disturbance

352 classified in three classes as low (< 0.15), medium (0.15 – 0.30) and strong (>

353 0.30).

354 Additionally, there is continuity in the trends for each response variable, as

355 depicted in the graph of Figure 1. For example, the bed slope (S) increases in the

356 graph from 90 until 180; afterwards, there is a zone in which an inflexion in the

357 trend occurs at 225; then S decreases from 270 until 0 and the next inflexion

358 zone occurs at 45. If the direction of the disturbance vector does not correspond

359 exactly to one of these eight principal directions (the 8 axes in the Figure 1), the

360 final response is determined using a weighted function of the distance between the

361 two closed axes with respect to the calculated disturbance vector. Regarding the

362 colonization of the vegetation, this response refers to the possibility of

363 encroachment of the vegetation into the active channel.

364

365 Figure 1. Graphical representation of the disturbance vector (shown in red) and

366 the main direction of the morphological response

367

368 The methodological approach proposed here could be applied to a wide range of

369 fluvial systems which suffer alterations in hydrology and sediment supply due to

370 natural or anthropic disturbances.

371

372 4. Application of the model to the Isère watershed

373 The application of our model has been exercise in order to assess it in a complex

374 watershed with numerous and important perturbation sources. The model was

375 tested on the Isère watershed upstream of the city of Grenoble (5700 km2). The

376 Isère mountain watershed is a sub-basin of the Rhône River (upper part of the

377 Rhone basin), located in southeastern France (Figure 2). Its main tributary is the

378 Arc River, and the second one is the Arly River. This watershed is a strongly

379 anthropogenically-affected hydro-system (Nougier et al., 2015). Among other

380 sources of perturbations, the hydrological flow regime and the sediment supply are

381 altered by several hydropower systems (Vivian, 1994; Marnezy, 1999). According

382 to Peiry et al. (1999), the hydropower systems of the Isère watershed (Figure 3)

383 are among the oldest, densest, and likely most sophisticated in the word. In the

384 watershed there are three different types of hydropower plants: impoundment

385 (large dams), diversions (heavy transbasin diversions with barrages) and pumped-

386 storage. The applied model considers the effect of the hydropower systems built

387 during the 1950 and 1970, but with the following limitations:

388 - The whole system is considered to be built at the same period, from an initial

389 steady state;

390 - Corresponding data are taken from official public sources, but they may not

391 be fully representative of the actual operating modes;

392 Other perturbations sources were not taken in account. Older ones include climatic

393 perturbation (Little Ice Age), the stabilization of mountain hillslopes (forestation,

394 engineering torrent control) (Provansal et al, 2014) and levees in the downstream

395 reaches. Recent perturbations are mainly intensive gravel mining from the end of

396 the Second Word War; these were completely stopped at the beginning of 1980.

397

398 Figure 2. Location of the Isère watershed in the geographical French context.

399

400 According to the criteria mentioned in section 2.3, river network segmentation was

401 built using its morphological characteristics (i.e. bed slope, confluences) and the

402 hydropower structure locations (i.e. water intakes, releases and large dams). In

403 total, 23 reaches (see figure 3) were identified. Codes were assigned to each reach

404 starting with the main stream from the headwater reach of Isère (code 100) to the

405 lower downstream reach (900); then the main affluent of the Isère (Arc River)

406 following the same logic (see Figure 3).

407

408 Figure 3. Location of the Isère watershed, sub-basin delineation, river reaches

409 with their codes and main hydropower canalizations and dams.

410

411 Overall, 16 discharge stations were used to calculate the FQ indicator. These

412 discharge time series were gathered from the Banque hydro data base
413 (www.hydro.eaufrance.fr). When the discharge stations were not located at the

414 beginning of the river reach, it was necessary to weight discharges using the

415 surface drainage area to estimate the discharge values associated with a return

416 period of two years.

417

418 The determination of AS was more complex, as it involved the use of information

419 from different sources, and a reclassification of this information according the

420 methodology explained above. For the Isère watershed, this classification,

421 organized by geology, relief and land cover, is described below (from Table 2 to

422 Table 4). The geological surface formations, and their mechanical characteristics,

423 have a strong relationship to sediment supply. The qualitative classification

424 presented in Table 2 is based on information from the Bureau de Recherches

425 Géologiques et Minières de France (BRGM, 1980).

426

427 The topographic gradient of hillslopes is taken as the local gradient of the terrain.

428 The gradient is calculated using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The results (in

429 degrees) are then reclassified according to the groups shown in Table 3.

430

431 The land cover data used comes from the European CORINE project (2000). The

432 land cover for the Isère watershed was grouped and then classified into three

433 distinct classes according their potential for delivery of sediment (Table 4).

434
435 The combination of geology, gradient and land cover (codes from the Tables 2, 3

436 and 4) resulted in 15 class types for the potential intensity of sediment supply.

437 Then, for each sub-basin that corresponded to the drainage area of each river

438 reach, a single unique intensity value was obtained. Finally, these unique values

439 for reach sub-basin are added (as a continuum) from upstream to downstream (as

440 explained in section 3.1).

441

442 5. Results and discussion

443 FQ and AS were calculated for each reach of the river network. As an example,

444 we present the calculations FQ and AS for reach 300, which is influenced by the

445 hydropower system in the upper basin (mainly by Tignes dam and Malgovert power

446 plant, and other smaller structures).

447 For reach 300, the channel-forming discharge (2-yr return period) is 102 (m3s-1),

448 and the flow duration curves for the conditions pre and post hydropower are shown

449 in Figure 4. For this reach, the flow regime is regulated by dams in the upper part

450 of the watershed, and by diversions (transbasin diversion). The effects of these

451 diversions are translated as a reduction of the channel-forming discharge in terms

452 of frequency. Then, the frequency of the channel-forming discharge was reduced

453 from the initial condition, resulting in a value for FQ of -0.31.

454 Figure 4. Flow duration curves for the Isère river at Moûtiers downstream of the

455 Tignes large dam and Montrigon regulating reservoir. The curves correspond to

456 both periods before and after the initial operation of these dams during 1954.
457 The calculation of AS for the reach 300 implies consideration of the contributions

458 from upstream of the sub-basins associated with reaches 200 and 100. The first

459 calculation estimated the hillslope capacity of each pixel and sub-basin (SS)

460 through the overlapping of geology (table 2), terrain gradient (table 3) and land

461 cover (table 4), resulting in 45 possible values (see column 1 in Table 5). The result

462 of this combination is reclassified in 9 classes (see column 2 in Table 5), assigning

463 values from 1 (lower productivity) to 9 (higher productivity). The hillslope capacity

464 is presented in Figure 5 for individual pixels.

465

466 Figure 5. Hillslope capacity reclassified for the sub-basins 100, 200 and 300

467 combining geology, terrain gradient and land cover.

468 The second calculation consisted in obtaining a single value of sediment supply

469 (SS) from the hillslopes of each sub-basin. The SS value for each sub-basin is

470 calculated by a weighted sum (value of pixel -1 to 9- multiplied by the number of

471 pixels with this respective value) and normalized by the total number of pixels in

472 each sub-basin. The SS values represent the potential of sediment delivery from

473 each sub-basin to its reach.

474 The SS values for each sub-basin relates to reaches 100, 200 and 300 are 5.4,

475 5.7 and 4.7, respectively. To obtain the SSpre and SSpost required adding the SS

476 sub-basin values from upstream to downstream, considering the continuity or

477 discontinuity (presence of natural or artificial blockage) of sediment fluxes, as

478 described in section 3.1.b. Figure 6 shows the AS calculation for the reach 300,

479 where SSpre is the sum of the SS contribution from the sub-basins 100, 200 and
480 300 (SSpre=15.8). SSpost was calculated using the same sum of SS values

481 considering the blockage effect in the sediments fluxes due to Tignes dam

482 (SSpost=10.4), and subsequently AS was calculated for reach 300 result -0.34.

483 Montrigon barrage dam is considered as “transparent” in terms of sediments

484 fluxes, because it has Tainter gates located in the base of the dam.

485

486 Figure 6. SS values for the sub-basins, SSpre and SSpost values for the reaches

487 100, 200 and 300, represented by red arrows.

488

489 For the same reach (code 300), FQ and AS resulted to be -0.31 and -0.34,

490 respectively. Using these two values, the magnitude of the disturbance vector was

491 calculated as 0.46, with a direction of 227.4. This vector is located in an area

492 where the morphological processes decrease in intensity as both FQ and AS are

493 reduced proportionally, in accordance with Figure 3. In a case such as this when

494 the disturbance vector is near to 45 or 225, the trajectory of the changes are

495 difficult to predict, and according Grant et al. (2003) the response of the channel

496 depends on specific factors. Thus, for this reach, only the response variables

497 (defined in Table 1) W (width, decrease), DP (channel depth, decrease) and WA

498 (wetter area, decrease) are predictable by the model.

499 The results for all the reaches of the Isère watershed are shown in Figure 7 and

500 Table 6.

501

502 Figure 7. Results for disturbance vectors as a function of FQ and AS

503

504 Figure 7 shows that all the disturbance vectors are located in the lower

505 hemisphere, suggesting that all reaches affected by the hydropower systems

506 experience incision. It is possible to appreciate also that a group of vectors (for

507 reaches 610 to 650) have nearly the same direction. These reaches correspond to

508 the main tributary of the Isère River, which is the Arc River. The Arc River is

509 characterized by featuring a pump-storage hydropower, but primarily for water

510 diversion structures with water gates capable to flush (these flushing operations

511 are carried out at least once a year); therefore, the flow regime is modified without

512 modifying the continuity of sediment supply (considering a period over many

513 years). Figure 7 also shows that a group of vectors have trends with a direction

514 around 270° (reaches 200, 500, 600, 531 and 540). These trends are the result of,

515 in one case, the presence of a few large dams (e.g. the reach 200), and in another

516 case, the product of both a deficit in sediment supply remaining from upstream and

517 the water release points that “compensate” the discharge intake upstream.

518 The magnitude of the vectors is related to the intensity of the morphological

519 changes. The intensity of the changes is related to the time response and the

520 distances downstream of the morphological effects, in addition to other variables

521 (e.g. the activity of the affluent downstream, which attenuates the disturbance

522 effects). We characterized the magnitude of the vector using three intensity

523 classes (presented in section 3.2) namely: > 0.15 low; 0.15 – 0.30 medium and;

524 <0.30 strong.

525
526 The validation of conceptual models in fluvial geomorphology is limited, in

527 particular when applied to large spatial scales. While an evaluation of the results

528 was possible only for the elevation of the riverbed, the aim of this study was to

529 apply the model in the Isère watershed in order to test the model on a very complex

530 system, and not seek in detail all the possible sources of morphological

531 perturbations. We checked the model results against the Peiry et al.’s (1994) field

532 observations (see Figure 8) and with the evolution of longitudinal profiles, available

533 for some portions of the reaches (see Figures 9a and 9b). The data for the

534 longitudinal profiles were gathered from the Service de Nivellement Général de la

535 France (1908) and SOGREAH (1994). Of the 15 reaches in this study that have

536 field observations, six agreed with the model predictions by Peiry et al. (1994) (500,

537 531, 540, 600, 620 and 630). For three other reaches, the model results did not

538 agree (610, 640 and 650). The model predicts aggradation for these three cases,

539 but the field observation from the Peiry et al. (1994) shows a local incision. In

540 particular, reach 610 (a head water reach) is influenced by water derivation from

541 hydropower intakes, without changes in sediments supply due to HPs. Thus, the

542 morphological channel response expected due to the reduction of river discharge

543 and consequently the transport capacity was aggradation. However, gravel mining

544 took place in this reach (Fig. 8). This point source (gravel mining) of the

545 morphological disturbance to sediment availability to be transported was likely

546 greater than the discharge perturbation introduced by water diversion. We recall

547 that for the case test in the Isère watershed, gravel mining was not considered. For

548 the remaining 6 reaches (300, 400, 670, 700, 800 and 900) the model was unable
549 to definitively predict the evolution in riverbed elevation, as the disturbance vectors

550 were too close to 225°. Overall, for 6 of 9 reaches with viable prediction, were in

551 agreement with Peiry et al. (1994). Specifically, for the longitudinal profiles of

552 reaches 300 and 500, we verify that the model was capable to predict the changes

553 in the bed elevation. In the case of reach 300 (mentioned in the first part of the

554 results section) the response was unchanged, and for reach 500 the result was

555 bed degradation (due to a heavy water release, displayed in Figures 3 and 6 as

556 Diversion to Isère).

557

558 Figure 8. Trends and intensities predicted by the model for bed elevation,

559 observations from Piery et al., (1994), and location of gravel mining on the active

560 channel (Rhône-Méditerranée and Corse Basin Committee, RMC 1995).

561

562 Figure 9. Comparison of the longitudinal profiles from the years 1908 and 1988.

563 Figure 9a is reach 300 between Isère at Montrigon and confluence Isère - Doron

564 de Bozel, showing relative stability. Figure 9b is reach 500 between Isère at La

565 Bâthie and confluence Isère – Arly, showing aggradation experienced by the

566 longitudinal.

567

568 While the model satisfactorily compared with field observations, it is important to

569 consider that there are other sources of alteration that can disturb the control

570 variables in alpine mountain rivers, like the Isère River. These include land use

571 changes (massive reforestation of hillslopes and rural development), river

572 channelization (river channel rectification, meandering cutoff, and embankments)

573 and gravel mining. Climate patterns could have also affected the Isère river

574 morphology. According to Peiry et al. (1994), the climatic period known as the Little

575 Ice Age affected the morphology of the Isère River, notable until the 1980. For

576 these reasons, the morphological changes of the Isère River are not solely a

577 product of hydropower systems upstream. Thus, a validation of model prediction

578 is greatly restricted. Additionally, Comiti (2012) adds that a limited number of study

579 cases exist, which thereby hinders any attempt to infer the relative contribution of

580 potential causes to adjustments in morphology of the channels in alpine mountain

581 rivers. One of these cases is presented by Provansal et al. (2014) for the Lower

582 Rhône.

583

584 5.1 Limitations and perspectives of the method

585 The need for developing a simplified conceptual model predicting channel changes

586 due to anthropogenic disturbances is justified by the paucity of field data that

587 hamper the change of using more sophisticated approaches at the scale of an

588 entire watershed. From this point of view, the Isère watershed was no exception.

589 In this sense, the aim of the model application was to test the robustness of the

590 method in an extremely complex watershed using simple data.

591 The particular difficulties in working at watershed scale with strong anthropogenic

592 disturbance, is that there are often more than one source of disturbance, which act

593 at different spatial and temporal scales. As a result, model predictions are difficult

594 to validate. Additionally, there are other assumptions and limitations within the
595 model that we must note. First, our modeling approach considers only the initial

596 and final states of the channel in dynamic equilibrium. Thus, the duration of the

597 transition period is not evaluated, as well as the overlapping effects of non-

598 simultaneous perturbations, but it is possible to do the model, if there are data

599 available. Second, the perturbations introduced during the transition period at a

600 specific time, or distributed over time (e.g. climate change) may potentially stop,

601 accelerate or shift the processes, and divert the original trajectory of morphological

602 changes (it can include the changes in the land cover dynamics). This also is valid

603 for dynamic riverine vegetation, considered here as static.

604 Despite the simplicity of this model, and inherent assumptions and associated

605 limitations of it’s application, it provides a useful tool to perform predictions of

606 morphological trends, when the spatial domain is large and when the perturbations

607 are spatially distributed. Thus, this research presents a first attempt at obtaining a

608 “big picture” view regarding the behavior of morphological fluvial systems. The

609 simplicity of the model makes it flexible for a wide range of different applications

610 and scenarios similar to that tested here (e.g. sand and gravel extraction, sediment

611 replenishment, etc.). Possible future improvements of this model would allow the

612 evaluation of both the indicators related to the alteration for the hydrological regime

613 (FQ) and the alteration of sediment supply (AS). This model uses a channel-

614 forming discharge to evaluate sediment transport capacity. However, discharge

615 and transport capacity have a non-linear relationship (e.g. using the transport

616 capacity equations). FQ can be replaced by the relative change of non-dimensional

617 shear stress (Shields number) similar to the proposition by Schmidt and Wilcock
618 (2008). However, it is only possible at the watershed scale when the detailed data

619 are available.

620 The simple method to evaluate sediment supply intensity can be improved by

621 considering the stock of sediments in the active channel (available for transport),

622 for example, through time series of aerial photography or time series of bed slope.

623 However, this invariably brings us to the same challenge related to data availability.

624 An important issue that is not addressed by this type of model is the transient

625 duration period (reaction time), and -as mentioned before- possible trajectory

626 changes due to other changes introduced during this period (for example,

627 deforestation, climate change, etc.). In both cases this type of model is limited, and

628 can only be accomplished through numerical modeling. Consequently, the

629 challenge is not only to establish the trajectory of change, but also to know how

630 long these changes have occurred.

631

632 5.2. Final remarks

633 In general terms, anthropogenic disturbance to the river network are evaluated

634 individually at the scale of reach, and not as a system. In this study, we attempted

635 to evaluate the trend of morphological changes of a gravel-bed river at the scale

636 of river network, due to disturbance to two main morphological drivers: hydrological

637 flow regime and sediment supply, which are spatially distributed in a watershed.

638 The outcome of this study was the creation of a tool in the form of a simple model

639 capable of predicting the most likely directions of morphological changes.

640 This model is a useful tool for river management, river planning and for assessment

641 of morphological channel trends at the watershed scale. It can estimate

642 morphological channels trajectories due to hydropower projects by considering the

643 cumulative and synergistic effects at larger scales than just the river reach. Its

644 application is especially relevant for developing countries, for example, in Chilean

645 Patagonia or in Sub-Saharan Africa. In remote zones (where data are not

646 available), there are hydropower projects that consist of more than one

647 hydropower plant, and which could influence a large part of the watershed. In

648 cases such as these, conceptual models similar to the we present could be better

649 suited than traditional physically-based numerical models for predicting

650 morphological channel changes in watersheds.

651

652 Acknowledgements

653 The authors thank the suggestions, comments and advices provided by the

654 reviewers and associate editors, and for the excellent support of the SI editors to

655 improve the quality of this paper.

656 This work was supported by the FONDECYT project n. 11140764, funded by the

657 Chilean National Agency for the Science and Technology (CONICYT).

658

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862

863

864
865

866

867

868

869 Table 1
870 Directions of the most probable trends of river responses as a function of FQ and
871 AS
Angles in degree
Responses Variables
0° 45° 90° 135° 180° 225° 270° 315°
Bed elevation E D ? A A A ? D D
Bed slope S        
Channel Width W        
Channel Depth DP        
Wetted area WA        
Width to depth radio* WDR  ?  ?  ?  ?
Mean particle size d50  ?    ?  
Terrace formation T Y ? N N N Y/N Y Y
Colonization of vegetation V N Y/N Y Y Y ? N N
872 D: degradation; A: aggradation; : increased; : decreased; : increased or
873 decreased;
874 ?: Not referenced in the literature; Y: occurrence of phenomena; N:
875 nonoccurrence of phenomena; Y/N: occurrence or nonoccurrence of phenomena
876 *according to Schumm (1969) and Huang and Nanson (2002)
877
878
879 Table 2
880 Identification code used for the assessment of sediments supply based on the
881 classification of the geological map (BRGM, 1980).
Geological zone Mechanic
Characteristics Code
class resistance
Piedmont - Oceanic meta-sediments (ancient High 100
Bündner schist ocean detrital clay metamorphosed)
whose metamorphism is slight.
Pre-alps Sedimentary rocks (easily soluble in Medium 200
limestone water)
External Massif Plutonic magmatic rocks (e.g. High 300
crystalline granite/complex plutonic-volcanic of
the Belledonne mountain range)
 Sedimentary Sedimentary rocks Medium 200
cover of the
central massifs
Alpine corridor Alluvial Platform Low 300
“Sillon alpin”
Intra-alpine zone Magmatic or metamorphic rocks High 100
(crystalline and metamorphic rocks)
882
883
884
885 Table 3
886 Identification code used in the sediment supply assessment and classification of
887 terrain gradient
Terrain
Description of potential
gradient Code
sediment supply delivery
(in degree)
1 – 15 Very low 010
15 – 30 Low 020
30 – 45 Medium 030
45 – 60 High 040
60 – 90 Very high 050
888
889
890 Table 4
891 Identification of code used for land cover factors in the assessment of sediment
892 supply, based on the database of CORINE project Level III.
Classification according to the
Land cover class Code
potential input of sediments
Urban, and forest areas Low 001

Agricultural areas and areas

Medium 002
with low density of vegetation
Bare soil, bare rock and mining High 003
exploitation areas
893
894
895 Table 5
896 Classification of hillslope capacity for the combination of geology, terrain gradient
897 and land cover, using tables 2, 3 and 4.
Qualitative
Combination codes of overlapping layers SS sub-basin
sediment
(Geology, terrain gradient, land cover) values
delivery
111 1 Very low
112, 121, 211 2
113, 122, 131, 212, 221, 311 3 Low
123, 132, 141, 213, 222, 231, 312, 321 4
133, 142, 151, 223, 232, 241, 313, 322, 331 5 Medium
143, 152, 233, 242, 251, 323, 332, 341 6
153, 243, 252, 333, 342, 351 7 High
253, 343, 352 8
353 9 Very high
898
 Table 6.
Results for all the reaches of the Isère watershed
Reach FQ AS Magnitude Angle E S W D WA WDR d50 T V
100 0.43 -0.07 0.44 350.4 D ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Y N
200 0.05 -0.48 0.48 275.7 D ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Y N
300 -0.31 -0.34 0.46 227.4 ? ↓↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ? ? Y/N ?
310 -0.22 0.00 0.22 180.0 A ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ N Y
400 -0.25 -0.23 0.34 223.1 ? ↓↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ? ? Y/N ?
500 0.05 -0.22 0.23 282.0 D ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Y N
510 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC
520 -0.17 0.00 0.17 180.0 A ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ N Y
530 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC
531 -0.07 -0.37 0.37 259.4 D ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Y N
540 0.02 -0.06 0.07 287.5 D ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Y N
600 0.04 -0.16 0.16 283.0 D ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Y N
610 -0.43 -0.04 0.43 184.7 A ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ N Y
620 -0.37 -0.07 0.38 190.4 A ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ N Y
630 -0.39 -0.05 0.39 187.5 A ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ N Y
640 -0.38 -0.04 0.39 186.5 A ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ N Y
650 -0.38 -0.04 0.39 186.0 A ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ N Y
660 -0.04 -0.06 0.07 239.5 ? ↓↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ? ? Y/N ?
670 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC
700 -0.06 -0.09 0.11 236.8 ? ↓↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ? ? Y/N ?
710 0.00 -0.03 0.03 270.0 D ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Y N
800 -0.12 -0.09 0.15 216.0 ? ↓↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ? ? Y/N ?
900 -0.09 -0.08 0.12 223.4 ? ↓↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ? ? Y/N ?
NC: No changes, these reaches correspond to headwaters not influences by hydropower system