International Journal of

Environmental Research
and Public Health

Article
A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit
Assessment of Flood Control Measures in
Urban Areas
Chaochao Li 1,2, *, Xiaotao Cheng 1 , Na Li 1 , Xiaohe Du 1 , Qian Yu 1 and Guangyuan Kan 1
1 State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,
Research Center on Flood & Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
chengxt@iwhr.com (X.C.); lina@iwhr.com (N.L.); duxh@iwhr.com (X.D.); yqcherie@126.com (Q.Y.);
kanguangyuan@126.com (G.K.)
2 College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
* Correspondence: lcc0828@gmail.com; Tel.: +86-10-6878-1952; Fax: +86-10-6853-6927

Academic Editor: Miklas Scholz

Received: 24 May 2016; Accepted: 22 July 2016; Published: 5 August 2016

Abstract: Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of
their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works
and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk
analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of
disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and
a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model
(UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the
flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted
to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control
works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood
risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood
return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood
control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes
of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control
measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation.

Keywords: flood risk analysis; flood control measures; UFSM; UFDAM; R-D function; EAD (expected
annual damage)

1. Introduction
With the rapid development of urbanization, flood risks become more and more severe [1]. Since
the 1950s, the number of urban flood disasters has been gradually rising in China. The flood damage
is higher than it was in the past. According to the 2015 China flood and drought report, more than
100 cities have suffered waterlogging per year since 2006. The numbers of waterlogged cities were
130 in 2008, 258 in 2010, and 234 in 2013, respectively. Nearly 62% of 351 cities were waterlogged
between 2008 and 2010. The vast majority of flooding and waterlogging disasters are caused by local
extreme rainstorms. Flooding and waterlogging disasters remain one of the main challenges faced
by developing counties. They not only cause high mortality and suffering, but also damage local
economies that are in process of formation and thwart development achievements [2]. To ensure
security, a large number of flood control works and drainage systems have been built to reduce the

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787; doi:10.3390/ijerph13080787 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 2 of 18
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 2 of 18

economic losses associated

drainage pipelines with flood
is proportional disasters.
to urban As shown
construction in area,
land Figure 1, the
and the total lengthcoefficient
correlation of drainage
is
pipelines
0.96. is proportional to urban construction land area, and the correlation coefficient is 0.96.

Figure 1.
Figure 1. Statistics of total
Statistics of total length
length of
of drainage
drainage pipelines
pipelines and
and urban
urban construction
construction area.
area.

For flood hazard-affected bodies themselves, the subjective reasons for frequent occurrence of
For flood hazard-affected bodies themselves, the subjective reasons for frequent occurrence of
flooding and waterlogging disasters are analyzed as follows: (1) Cities expand in high flood hazard
flooding and waterlogging disasters are analyzed as follows: (1) Cities expand in high flood hazard
areas; (2) The development of drainage systems is slower than the city development; (3) Impervious
areas; (2) The development of drainage systems is slower than the city development; (3) Impervious
areas increase; (4) The large population and property density result in an increased flood
areas increase; (4) The large population and property density result in an increased flood vulnerability
vulnerability in urban areas.
in urban areas.
With the continuous expansion of cities, the urban flooding and waterlogging problems are
With the continuous expansion of cities, the urban flooding and waterlogging problems are
expected to become worse and worse unless more effective measures are adopted. The flood control
expected to become worse and worse unless more effective measures are adopted. The flood control
work measures can be divided into two types: structural and non-structural. Key elements of
work measures can be divided into two types: structural and non-structural. Key elements of structural
structural works have been reservoirs, dikes, detention basins, pumping stations, etc.
works have been reservoirs, dikes, detention basins, pumping stations, etc. Non-structural measures
Non-structural measures include flood forecasting, flood emergency planning and response, and
include flood forecasting, flood emergency planning and response, and post-flood recovery. Distinct
post-flood recovery. Distinct from technical support services, these activities directly modify the
from technical support services, these activities directly modify the vulnerability of communities
vulnerability of communities exposed to flood risks. Typically protection measures such as dikes,
exposed to flood risks. Typically protection measures such as dikes, levees, seawalls have a certain
levees, seawalls have a certain designed capacity. When the flood scale exceeds this capacity, the
designed capacity. When the flood scale exceeds this capacity, the structural measures could fail,
structural measures could fail, and the flood damage could be more disastrous. The “protection” of
and the flood damage could be more disastrous. The “protection” of flood control systems provides
flood control systems provides perverse incentives for private individuals and businesses to adapt
perverse incentives for private individuals and businesses to adapt on their own devices and may
on their own devices and may promote unwanted concentrations of population/businesses in
promote unwanted concentrations of population/businesses in hazard-prone areas. Thus it is difficult
hazard-prone areas. Thus it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely
to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. Appropriate
relying on structural measures. Appropriate non-structural measures provide sound strategies for
non-structural measures provide sound strategies for sustainable development. According to Wang’s
sustainable development. According to Wang’s research, reasonable land use planning based on
research, reasonable land use planning based on flood risk analysis will decrease the future flood
flood risk analysis will decrease the future flood risk by 39%–50% in Taihu Basin [3]. The economic
risk by 39%–50% in Taihu Basin [3]. The economic losses associated with flood and waterlogging can
losses associated with flood and waterlogging can be reduced by scientific flood risk management.
be reduced by scientific flood risk management. Reasonable flood risk analysis can provide crucial
Reasonable flood risk analysis can provide crucial information for strategy development and
information for strategy development and planning adaptation.
planning adaptation.
Natural disaster risk assessment methods generally are of three types: mathematical statistical
Natural disaster risk assessment methods generally are of three types: mathematical statistical
methods, index system methods, and dynamic risk evaluation methods based on integrated models.
methods, index system methods, and dynamic risk evaluation methods based on integrated models.
The disaster trends are summarized based on the first method according to the analysis of historical
The disaster trends are summarized based on the first method according to the analysis of historical
flood disaster data. Benito provided a scientific method based on palaeoflood and historical data
flood disaster data. Benito provided a scientific method based on palaeoflood and historical data for
for flood risk analysis [4]. The index system methods focus on the selection of disaster risk indexes,
flood risk analysis [4]. The index system methods focus on the selection of disaster risk indexes,
optimization, and calculation of their weights. Okazawa established a global flood risk index based
optimization, and calculation of their weights. Okazawa established a global flood risk index based
on both natural and social factors [5]. In order to estimate the flood risk index at a spatial resolution
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 3 of 18

on both natural and social factors [5]. In order to estimate the flood risk index at a spatial resolution
of city/county/town units for a river watershed, Seiler used the standardized precipitation index
for flood risk monitoring [6]. With the development of hydrological models, hydraulic models and
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, integrated models have been widely used in recent
years. Flood inundation information and socio-economic information are analyzed by spatial overlay
analysis [7,8]. Detailed geographic information data is needed to construct integrated models based
on GIS. For the first two methods, it is difficult to describe the relationship among the main factors,
or provide the evolutionary trends of flood risk and time-series inundation information. When the
evaluation objects and conditions change, these methods cannot adjust in real time and the uncertainty
and dynamics of the disaster system cannot be revealed as well, so the third method has become the
mainstream direction of current research on natural disaster risk assessment.
Crichton proposed that flood risks depend on three elements: hazard, vulnerability, and
exposure [9]. The flood risk can then be represented as follows [10,11]:

f lood risk “ f unction phazard, exposure, vulnerabilityq (1)

The hazard means the threatening natural event including its probability of occurrence, and it
generally quantified as the water depth and water flow velocity distribution. The exposure refers the
people/assets that are present at the location involved. The vulnerability indicates the characteristics
and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects
of a hazard [12]. Flood disasters are predictable and controllable, which are features that distinguish
floods from other natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The capacities of
flood forecasting, early warming and flood control can be enhanced to mitigate the impact flood
disasters. Hence, the capacity should be also considered. The capacity can be quantified as the flood
risk reduction. The flood risk reduction comprises the flood damage averted in the future as a result
of schemes to reduce the frequency of flooding or reduce the impact of that flooding on the affected
property and economic activity, or a combination thereof. Spatially explicit hydrodynamic flood
simulation models play an important role in flood risk reduction assessment.
However, flood risk assessment in urban areas is more complex than in rural areas because of
their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large amounts of flood control works
and drainage systems [13]. In this study, a framework was developed which combines urban flood
simulation and flood damage assessment. A key element of this framework that makes it suitable
for risk reduction assessment is the ability to provide objective inundation information with the
consideration of buildings, land uses and flood control works. In terms of the concept of the risk
triangle, the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability of storm waterlogging were analyzed. The R-D
function was proposed to measure the effectiveness of flood control works and provide indications of
the changing resilience. The results could be critical for land use planning, for flood control works
design, for mapping evacuation egress routes, and for locating suitable emergency shelters to name
but a few risk treatments [14].

2. Study Area
Shanghai, which is located in the estuary areas of the Yangtze River, is one of the most important
core regions of economic, transportation, industry, science and technology in China (Figure 2).
Shanghai has developed rapidly due to its various advantages, such as a highly developed industry,
a stable economic base, and a dense population. Shanghai ranked first among Chinese cities in terms
of GDP in 2015. Meanwhile, Shanghai is a flat land, which is prone to serious flood disasters caused
by “plum rains”, typhoons, and storm surges. The flood risk features in Shanghai are very sensitive
to both disaster-causing factors and social economy. Shanghai is divided into four flood protection
areas: Pudong, Puxi, Hangjiahu and Yangchengdianmao. The Pudong flood protection area (2722 km2 ,
hereinafter referred to as Pudong) is a coastal part of Shanghai located in the right bank of the Huangpu
 Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 4 of 18

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 4 of 18

River, which is taken as the study area in this paper. The estuary of the Yangtze River is situated to the
Hangzhou Bay China
north, the East to theSea
south.
to theThe
east,location of Pudong
and Hangzhou Bay is
to shown in The
the south. Figure 2. The
location of Huangpu River
Pudong is shown
originates
in Figure from
2. TheTai Lake and
Huangpu Dianshan
River Lake.from
originates It meanders
Tai Lake through the whole
and Dianshan Lake.city from westthrough
It meanders to east
inthe
the upstream. The terrain of Pudong is relatively flat. The ground surface elevation
whole city from west to east in the upstream. The terrain of Pudong is relatively flat. The ground ranges from
3.5 m to 4.5 m based on the Wusong Datum, and the northwest is lower than the
surface elevation ranges from 3.5 m to 4.5 m based on the Wusong Datum, and the northwest is lower southeast. The
Pudong
than theflood protection
southeast. area contains
The Pudong flood five administrative
protection districts:
area contains five Pudong New District,
administrative Fengxian
districts: Pudong
District, part of Minhang District, part of Songjiang District, and part of Jinsan District. Considering
New District, Fengxian District, part of Minhang District, part of Songjiang District, and part of Jinsan
the threatConsidering
District. of flooding the
caused byoftyphoons,
threat plum rains
flooding caused and riverplum
by typhoons, floods, Shanghai
rains and riverhas implemented
floods, Shanghai
ahascomprehensive flood defense system which consists of dikes, floodwalls,
implemented a comprehensive flood defense system which consists of dikes, floodwalls, gates, pumps gates,
and
drainage pipe networks.
pumps and drainage pipe networks.

Thelocation
Figure2.2.The
Figure locationofofthe
thePudong
Pudongflood
floodprotection
protectionarea.
area.

Shanghaiisisvulnerable
Shanghai vulnerabletotoflooding
floodingdue
duetotoits
itsgeographic
geographiclocation
locationon
onflat
flatand
andlow-lying
low-lyingterrain,
terrain,
rapid
rapidsocio-economic
socio-economicdevelopment,
development,land
landsubsidence,
subsidence,and andclimate
climatechange.
change.InIn2005,
2005,No.
No.99Typhoon
Typhoon
Matsa
Matsaaffected
affectedShanghai.
Shanghai.It Itcaused
causeda adirect
directeconomic
economiclosslossofof1.358
1.358billion
billionCNY,
CNY,which
whichincluded
included
agricultural
agriculturallosses
lossesofof843
843million
millionCNY
CNYandandindustrial
industriallosses
lossesofof158
158million
millionCNY.
CNY.AArecent
recentflood
flood
occurred
occurredinin2013,
2013,caused
causedby byNo.
No.2323Typhoon
TyphoonFitow.
Fitow.ItItwas
wasreported
reportedthat
thatseveral
severalriver
riverdikes
dikesininthe
the
upstream
upstreamwere
were overtopped or or broken,
broken,and
andthethemaximum
maximum inundation
inundation depth
depth in Songjiang
in Songjiang District
District was
was estimated
estimated at more
at more than
than 2.5 2.5 m [15–17].
m [15–17]. The farmland
The adjacent adjacent farmland and residential
and residential areas were
areas were flooded.
flooded.
3. Methodology
3. Methodology
3.1. Framework of Flood Risk Analysis
3.1. Framework of Flood Risk Analysis
Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM)
Urban Flood
are developed Simulation
by China InstituteModel
of Water (UFSM)
Resourcesand and
Urban Flood Damage
Hydropower ResearchAssessment
(IWHR). TheModel
UFSM
(UFDAM)
and UFDAM are developed
are coupledbytoChina Institute
evaluate of Water
the flood risk inResources and
this study. Hydropower
The Research
flood risk analysis (IWHR).
framework
The
andUFSM
benefitand UFDAMmethod
assessment are coupled to evaluate
of flood the floodare
control measures risk in this in
adopted study. The flood
this paper. The risk analysis
methodology
framework and benefit
contains a number assessment
of steps (Figuremethod
3): of flood control measures are adopted in this paper. The
methodology contains a number of steps (Figure 3):
1. Flood and waterlogging scenarios are simulated by UFSM. Several model parameters are set up
1. Flood and waterlogging
corresponding to the realscenarios
operationareof simulated
flood controlby works.
UFSM. Several model parameters are set
2. up corresponding to the real operation of flood
Flood damage is evaluated by UFDAM. The index system control works.
of flood damage assessment is designed
2. Flood damage is evaluated by UFDAM. The index
according to the indicators of national statistics data. system of flood damage assessment is
designed according to the indicators of national statistics data.
3. Flood damage curve is constructed based on S-shaped function. The return period-damage
function is selected to describe the flood risk.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 5 of 18

3. Flood damage curve is constructed based on S-shaped function. The return period-damage
function
Int. J. Environ. Res.isPublic
selected
Healthto describe
2016, 13, 787 the flood risk. 5 of 18

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 5 of 18

Figure 3.
Figure A basic
3. A basic framework
framework of
of flood
flood risk
risk analysis.
analysis.

3.1.1. UFSM
UFSM
UFSM is a 1D–2D coupled hydrodynamic
UFSM hydrodynamic model model which
which has has been
been widely
widely used
used for
for flood and
waterlogging simulation
waterlogging simulationin inurban
urbanareas.
areas.TheTheapproach
approach adopted
adopted in in
this study
this studyincludes modelling
includes modellingof the
of
riverriver
the channel and main
channel road Figure
and main as a 1Das
road 3.network
Aa basic nested within
framework
1D network the
of flood
nested 2D domain
risk
within the 2Drepresenting
analysis. the floodplain.
domain representing the
It is necessary
floodplain. It isto considertothe
necessary impact the
consider of buildings, land use and
impact of buildings, land flood control
use and works
flood on flood
control worksriskon
3.1.1.
flood UFSM
analysis.
riskThe residential
analysis. buildings are
The residential denselyare
buildings distributed in urban areas.
densely distributed Theseareas.
in urban buildings
These would block
buildings
and change
would blockthe
UFSM adirection
isand changeof
1D–2D water
the
coupled flow.
direction AsofShown
hydrodynamicwater in Figure
flow.
model As 4, thehas
Shown
which building
inbeen spaces
Figure should
4, the
widely be flood
building
used for deducted
spaces
and
when
should we
becalculate
waterloggingdeducted the
simulationinundation
when weurban
in areas.
calculate
areas. Thus,
the a parameter,
inundation
The approach areas.
adoptedadjusted
Thus, a area rate includes
parameter,
in this study (AAR), ismodelling
adjusted adopted
area ratein
of
this
(AAR),model,
is which
adopted can
in be
this calculated
model, with
which Equation
can be (2).
calculated with Equation
the river channel and main road as a 1D network nested within the 2D domain representing the (2).
floodplain. It is necessary to consider the impact of buildings,
Ab land use and flood control works on
AAR “ 1 ´ (2)
flood risk analysis. The residential buildings are densely distributed in urban areas. These buildings
Am
would block and change the direction of water flow. As Shown in Figure 4, the building spaces
shouldAAR
where is the adjusted
be deducted whenarea rate of a mesh;
we calculate Ab is the area
the inundation ofThus,
areas. building within theadjusted
a parameter, mesh; and Amrate
area is
the area of the mesh.
(AAR), is adopted in this model, which can be calculated with Equation (2).

Figure 4. The distribution of residential buildings and the generated mesh.

=1− (2)

where AAR is the adjusted area rate of a mesh; is the area of building within the mesh; and
Figure 4. The distribution of residential buildings and the generated mesh.
is the area of the Figure
mesh. 4. The distribution of residential buildings and the generated mesh.
Different land use types have different impacts on the runoff process. Parameters related to the
runoff process should be set up according to = the
1−land use, such as runoff coefficients and roughness.
(2)
The initial values of the runoff coefficient and roughness can be given according to the reference
values. The reference
where AAR values
is the adjusted of rate
area roughness for different
of a mesh; land ofuse
is the area are proposed
building in mesh;
within the Table and
1. The
parameters can
is the area of bemesh.
the adjusted and identified by comparing simulation results with measured results.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 6 of 18

Different land use types have different impacts on the runoff process. Parameters related to the
runoff process should be set up according to the land use, such as runoff coefficients and roughness.
The initial values of the runoff coefficient and roughness can be given according to the reference values.
The reference values of roughness for different land use are proposed in Table 1. The parameters can
be adjusted and identified by comparing simulation results with measured results.

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health

Table2016, 13, reference
1. The 787 value of roughness for different land uses. 6 of 18

Land Use Table 1.Thicket

The reference value of roughness for
Dry Farmland different
Paddy Fieldland uses.
Open Space
Land Use
Roughness Thicket
0.065 Dry Farmland
0.035 Paddy Field
0.035 Open Space
0.025–0.035
Roughness 0.065 0.035 0.035 0.025–0.035

The runoff coefficient of impervious areas is about 0.9, and the runoff coefficient of natural
The runoff coefficient of impervious areas is about 0.9, and the runoff coefficient of natural
catchments is about 0.5. The runoff coefficient can be calculated by linear interpolation according to
catchments is about 0.5. The runoff coefficient can be calculated by linear interpolation according to
the impervious area ratio. The impervious area ratio approximates the AAR. Thus:
the impervious area ratio. The impervious area ratio approximates the AAR. Thus:
= 0.5
R“ 0.5` (0.9´−0.5q
+p0.9 0.5)ˆ×AAR (3)
(3)
where R
where R is
is the
the runoff
runoff coefficient.
coefficient.
The flood control
The flood control worksworks in urban
in urban areasareas generally
generally containcontain
dikes, dikes,
pumps,pumps, sluices,
sluices, and pipeand pipe
drainage
drainage
networks.networks.
When theWhenwaterthelevelwater
of a level
river of a riverthan
is lower is lower thanelevation,
the crest the crest there
elevation,
is no there
water isflow
no
water flow exchange between the river and the floodplain. When the water level
exchange between the river and the floodplain. When the water level exceeds the crest elevation exceeds the crest
elevation or a dike
or a dike breaks, thebreaks, the weirisformula
weir formula used to is used tothe
calculate calculate the flow.
flow. Gates and Gates
pumpsand canpumps can be
be simulated
simulated
according to according to therules.
the operation operation rules.pipe
Drainage Drainage
networks pipearenetworks
simplifiedare
as simplified as several
several underground
underground reservoirs. Details of UFSM can
reservoirs. Details of UFSM can be found in Cheng [18]. be found in Cheng [18].

3.1.2. UFDAM
The flood damage assessment method is combined with GIS technology. The direct economic
losses can
can bebeestimated
estimatedaccording
accordingtoto thethe
loss ratios
loss of different
ratios kinds
of different of hazard-affected
kinds of hazard-affectedbodies. The
bodies.
hazard-affected bodies are divided into several categories: residential
The hazard-affected bodies are divided into several categories: residential buildings, buildings, residential
commerce, agriculture
properties, industry, commerce, agriculture and transportation.
transportation. The residential building losses refer
to the cost of rebuilding
rebuilding the
the structure-damaged
structure-damaged and and landscape-damaged
landscape-damaged buildings. The residential
property losses refer to the cost of replacing furniture and household
property losses refer to the cost of replacing furniture and household appliances
appliances such as such as TVs,
TVs, washing
washing
machinesmachines and refrigerators.
and refrigerators. The total
The total direct directlosses
economic economic
of thelosses of area
affected the affected
are equalarea are equal
to cumulative
to cumulative
losses losses of all
of all categories. categories.
The Theeconomic
basic social basic social economic
data can be data can be
acquired acquired
from from
statistics statistics
yearbooks.
The flood damage assessment index system is shown in Figure 5. More details on UFDAM can on
yearbooks. The flood damage assessment index system is shown in Figure 5. More details be
UFDAM can be[19,20].
found in Wang found in Wang [19,20].

Figure 5. The index system of the direct economic losses.

3.1.3. Flood Damage Function

The formulation of the flood damage function must reflect the interaction between the
probability of occurrence of a hazardous event and its estimated consequences [21,22]. In recent
years, a widely accepted concept of flood risk in a particular region is often termed as expected
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 7 of 18

3.1.3. Flood Damage Function

The formulation of the flood damage function must reflect the interaction between the probability
of occurrence of a hazardous event and its estimated consequences [21,22]. In recent years, a widely
accepted concept of flood risk in a particular region is often termed as expected annual damages
(EAD) [23–25]. EAD is a cost-based measurement representing the expected average infrastructure
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 7 of 18
costs as a result of flooding each year, which is the integration of the complete range of all possible
flood events. It can be expressed as:
ż1
Risk “ = ( )dp
D ppq (4)
(4)
0
whereDDisisthe
where thedamage
damage ofof a given
a given flood
flood event,
event, andand
p is pthe
is probability
the probability of flood
of this this flood
eventevent
withinwithin
a year.a
Toyear. To calculate
calculate the riskthe risk value
(EAD) (EAD)onevalue onetoneeds
needs to determine
determine the probability
the probability distribution
distribution of flood of flood
events,
events,
the flood the flood
depth in andepth
event,inandanthe
event, and under
damages the damages
the givenunder
depth.the given
In this depth.
study, In thisapproach
a practical study, a
ispractical
to build approach is to buildcurve
a damage probability a damage
based probability
on different curve
return based
periodsonof different
floods. The return
returnperiods
period R of
isfloods. The return
used instead period R isp,used
of probability instead
p = 1/R, of probability
p P (0,1), R P (0,8)p,andp =then p ∈risk
1/R, the (0,1),
can ∈expressed
R be (0,∞)and then
as: the
risk can be expressed as: ż 8
Risk “ D pRq dR (5)
=0 ( ) (5)

D(R) can be expressed as an S-shaped function according to previous studies [26–28]. R is the
D(R) can be expressed as an S-shaped function according to previous studies [26–28]. R is the
independent variable, and D is the dependent variable. As shown in Figure 6, the flood R-D curve
independent variable, and D is the dependent variable. As shown in Figure 6, the flood R-D curve
can be expressed as an S-shaped function. The characteristics of D(R) function are summarized as
can be expressed as an S-shaped function. The characteristics of D(R) function are summarized as
follows: (1) the function D(R) increases monotonically; (2) Point C is the inflexion point where the rate
follows: (1) the function D(R) increases monotonically; (2) Point C is the inflexion point where the
of change of damage begins to decline. It is called the damage transition point. The first derivative
rate of change of damage begins to decline. It is called the damage transition point. The first
function D’(R) indicates that the slope of the flood damage curve is maximum when R = Rc.
derivative function D’(R) indicates that the slope of the flood damage curve is maximum when R = Rc.

Figure6.6.Flood
Figure FloodR-D
R-Dfunction
functioncurve
curveand
andthe
thefirst
firstderivative
derivativecurve
curveof
ofR-D
R-Dfunction.
function.

Themaximum
The maximum value
value of flood
of flood damage damage A, critical
A, critical returnRc,period
return period Rc, and loss
and integrated integrated loss
coefficient k
coefficient
are the three kmain
are parameters,
the three which
main canparameters,
be determinedwhich can be
through determined
experiential throughexperimental
judgement, experiential
judgement, and
simulation, experimental simulation,
curve fitting. and curve
The maximum fitting.
flood The maximum
damage A is relatedflood damage
to flood A is related
exposure such asto
flood exposurefactors.
socio-economic such asThesocio-economic
critical returnfactors.
period The
Rc cancritical return
reflect floodperiod
controlRc can reflect
capability. flood
The control
integrated
capability.
loss Thek integrated
coefficient loss coefficient
is used to describe k is used toThe
flood vulnerability. describe flood
historical vulnerability.
data or simulation The
datahistorical
can be
data orfor
utilized simulation dataMathematical
curve fitting. can be utilized for curve
statistical fitting.tools
analysis Mathematical
are used to statistical
determineanalysis
the valuestools are
of the
used to determine
parameters the values
in this study [29]. of the parameters in this study [29].
Figure 77 provides the
Figure the classic
classicdiagram
diagramofofcalculating
calculating thethe
benefit
benefitof flood control
of flood measures.
control The
measures.
annual
The average
annual floodflood
average damage is theisarea
damage under
the area the graph
under of flood
the graph losseslosses
of flood plotted against
plotted the return
against the
periodperiod
return in years.
in years.
r 8 r
EADEAD  EADa a
b ´b EAD 00 D R )dR ´ 08D aD
Dbb(pRqdR (Ra pRqdR
)dR
EABEAB
“  “ r8 0 (6)
(6)
EAD EAD  D pRqdR
0 Db(bR )dR
b
b
0

EAB is the benefit of flood control measures, EADb is the flood risk before taking the measures,
EADa is the flood risk after taking the measures, Db(R) is the flood damage function curve before
taking the measures, and Da(R) is the flood damage function curve after taking the measures [4].
 Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 8 of 18
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 8 of 18

Figure
Figure 7.
7. The
Thebenefit
benefit of
of flood
flood control
control measures
measures maymay have
have two
two situations:
situations: (a)
(a)the
the flood
flood risk
risk can
can be
be
reduced under any return period of flood; (b) the flood risk only can be significantly reduced
reduced under any return period of flood; (b) the flood risk only can be significantly reduced within within
the
theflood
flood control
control capacity.
capacity.

3.2. Data
EAB is the benefit of flood control measures, EADb is the flood risk before taking the measures,
EADThe geographic
a is the flood riskdata,
after hydrological data, social
taking the measures, economic
Db (R) datadamage
is the flood are thefunction
foundation
curvefor the
before
establishment of a flood
taking the measures, andrisk assessment
Da (R) is the floodsystem.
damage DEM with curve
function a resolution of 5 m
after taking thewas generated
measures [4]. by
digitalizing the topographical feature elements. The elevation points in 1:10,000 topographic maps
3.2. Data
and other geo-information such as buildings, roads, land uses are provided by the Shanghai
Administration of Surveying
The geographic and Mappingdata,
data, hydrological (2012). The economic
social data of rivers,
data gates,
are thepumps, and dikes
foundation for are
the
adopted according to the Second Shanghai Water Resources Survey (2012).
establishment of a flood risk assessment system. DEM with a resolution of 5 m was generated The water surface
elevation refers the
by digitalizing to the Wusong height
topographical datum.
feature The social
elements. The economic
elevation data is obtained
points from
in 1:10,000 the 2014
topographic
statistical yearbooks of Pudong New District, Fengxian District, Minhang
maps and other geo-information such as buildings, roads, land uses are provided by the ShanghaiDistrict, Songjiang
District, and Jinsan
Administration District. The
of Surveying design
and rainfall
Mapping and design
(2012). water/tide
The data levels
of rivers, arepumps,
gates, calculated
andaccording
dikes are
to the long term data from 1965 to 2013.
adopted according to the Second Shanghai Water Resources Survey (2012). The water surface elevation
refers to the Wusong height datum. The social economic data is obtained from the 2014 statistical
4. Results and
yearbooks Discussion
of Pudong New District, Fengxian District, Minhang District, Songjiang District, and Jinsan
District. The design rainfall and design water/tide levels are calculated according to the long term
4.1. Model Validation
data from 1965 to 2013.
According to the above methodology, the flood risk assessment system was established. The
4. Resultswater
measured and Discussion
level during Typhoon Fitow is set as the upstream and downstream boundary
conditions for UFSM. A 150 m × 150 m mesh is considered appropriate in view of both the size of the
4.1. Model
river Validation
channel and computation time. The total number of meshes is 127,453. A total of 44 gates,
262 pumps, and
According to 31 the
drainage
abovedivision areas arethe
methodology, simulated in the
flood risk study area.
assessment Figure
system was8 presents the
established.
comparison between the simulation results and measured water levels at the
The measured water level during Typhoon Fitow is set as the upstream and downstream boundary Huangpu Park station.
The simulation
conditions results Ashow
for UFSM. good
150 m agreement
ˆ 150 m mesh with the measured
is considered data. The
appropriate simulation
in view of bothresults
the sizeare
of
generally
the river channel and computation time. The total number of meshes is 127,453. A total of 44m,gates,
lower than the measured water level. The highest simulated water level is 4.94 the
highest
262 pumps,measured
and 31water level division
drainage 5.12 m, areas
and thearerelative
simulatederror is 3.5%.
in the studyThe lowest
area. simulated
Figure water
8 presents the
level is 1.05 m, the lowest measured water level 1.18 m. The errors at low water
comparison between the simulation results and measured water levels at the Huangpu Park station. level are higher than
these at high water
The simulation level.
results showWhen
good theagreement
water level is low,
with the gates and
the measured data.pumps along the results
The simulation Huangpu are
River release water into the river. As the amount of water from Puxi is ignored,
generally lower than the measured water level. The highest simulated water level is 4.94 m, the highest the simulation
results
measured are water
lower level
especially inand
5.12 m, a lowthetide situation.
relative error is 3.5%. The lowest simulated water level is 1.05 m,
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 9 of 18

the lowest measured water level 1.18 m. The errors at low water level are higher than these at high
water level. When the water level is low, the gates and pumps along the Huangpu River release water
into the river. As the amount of water from Puxi is ignored, the simulation results are lower especially
Int.aJ.low
in Environ.
tideRes. Public Health 2016, 13, 787
situation. 9 of 18

Figure 8. The simulation results and measured water levels of the Huangpu Park station during
Figure
Typhoon The simulation results and measured water levels of the Huangpu Park station during
8. Fitow.
Typhoon Fitow.
The surveyed flood damage was 132.12 million CNY, according to the 2013 statistical data of
The Songjiang,
Jinshan, surveyed flood damageDistrict
and Qingpu was 132.12 million
(Table CNY, according
2). Through to the analyzing
spatial overlay 2013 statistical data of
the flooding
Jinshan,
data andSongjiang, and Qingpu
social economic data,District (Table
the flood 2). Through
damage spatial overlay
is calculated analyzing
as 130.60 million the(Table
flooding
3). data
The
and social economic
simulation data, the
result coincides flood
quite damage
well is calculated
with the as 130.60
surveyed value withmillion (Table
a relative 3).ofThe
error simulation
1.15%. Hence,
result coincides
the model can bequite welltowith
utilized the surveyed
estimate the floodvalue
damagewithinaShanghai.
relative error of 1.15%. Hence, the model
can be utilized to estimate the flood damage in Shanghai.
Table 2. The flood damage based on survey data of Typhoon Fitow (million CNY).
Table 2. The flood damage based on survey data of Typhoon Fitow (million CNY).
Water Conservancy Facilities Agriculture Industry and Transportation Other Total
24.00 69.34 21.43 17.35 132.12
Water Conservancy Facilities Agriculture Industry and Transportation Other Total
24.00 69.34 21.43 17.35 132.12
Table 3. The flood damage simulation results (million CNY).

Residential Residential
Table 3. The floodAgriculture
damage simulation CNY). Industrial Production
Losses results (million
Industry Losses
Building Losses Property Losses Losses
6.21
Residential 17.31
Residential 71.26
Agriculture 18.85
Industry 9.98
Industrial
Business Assets
Building Losses Business
Property Losses Losses Losses Direct Economic
Highway Losses Railway Losses Production Losses
Losses Revenue Losses Losses
6.21 17.31 71.26 18.85 9.98
1.46 2.41 2.66 0.46 130.60
Business Assets Business Revenue Highway Railway Direct Economic
Losses Losses Losses Losses Losses
4.2. Hazard Analysis
1.46 2.41 2.66 0.46 130.60
The 24-h design rainfalls with frequency of 0.001, 0.002, 0.005, 0.01, 0.02, and 0.05 were taken as
input data for scenario simulation. Two flood control works conditions are set up. Condition 1:
4.2. Hazard Analysis
Flood control works normally operate. Condition 2: All pumps, gates and drainage systems stop
The 24-h
working. design rainfalls
The statistical with frequency
inundation of 0.001,
data is shown 0.002,
in Table 4. 0.005, 0.01, 0.02,
The benefit and 0.05 were
of established floodtaken as
control
input data for scenario simulation. Two flood control works conditions are set
works can be evaluated by comparing the difference between Condition 1 and Condition 2. up. Condition 1: Flood
control works normally operate. Condition 2: All pumps, gates and drainage systems stop working.
The statistical inundation dataTable
is shown
4. Theinsimulation
Table 4. The benefit
results of established flood control works can
of inundation.
be evaluated byReturn
comparing the difference
24-h Areal
between
The Largest
Condition
The Maximum
1 and Condition
Average
2. Inundation Area of
Statistical
Period Precipitation Inundation Water Depth Water Depth Water Depth
Index
(Year) (mm) Area (km2) (m) (m) ≥0.5 m (km2)
5 134.5 1287.75 1.09 0.12 3.71
10 169.1 1602.62 1.47 0.13 8.93
20 203.1 1805.49 1.79 0.15 16.74
Condition 1 50 247.5 1984.76 2.01 0.17 32.84
100 280.8 2083.45 2.11 0.19 49.35
200 313.9 2161.28 2.19 0.20 70.81
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 10 of 18

Table 4. The simulation results of inundation.

Return 24-h Areal The Largest The Maximum Average Inundation Area of
Statistical
Period Precipitation Inundation Water Depth Water Depth Water Depth
Index
(Year) (mm) Area (km2 ) (m) (m) ě0.5 m (km2 )
5 Health 2016,
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public 134.5
13, 787 1287.75 1.09 0.12 3.71 10 of 18
10 169.1 1602.62 1.47 0.13 8.93
20 203.1 1805.49 1.79 0.15 16.74
Condition 1 50 247.5 1984.76 2.01
Table 4. Cont. 0.17 32.84
100 280.8 2083.45 2.11 0.19 49.35
2005 134.5
313.9 1520.35
2161.28 1.27
2.19 0.12
0.20 2.88
70.81
1000
10 390.3
169.1 2290.87
1752.93 2.37
1.62 0.24
0.14 137.87
8.65
520 203.1
134.5 1906.28
1520.35 1.90
1.27 0.15
0.12 16.66
2.88
Condition 2 1050 169.1
247.5 1752.93
2046.95 1.62
2.07 0.14
0.18 8.65
33.20
20
100 203.1
280.8 1906.28
2123.97 1.90
2.15 0.15
0.19 16.66
50.40
Condition 2 50 247.5 2046.95 2.07 0.18 33.20
200
100 313.9
280.8 2187.96
2123.97 2.22
2.15 0.21
0.19 72.49
50.40
1000
200 390.3
313.9 2299.33
2187.96 2.40
2.22 0.25
0.21 143.70
72.49
1000 390.3 2299.33 2.40 0.25 143.70
The water depth and inundation area increase with the growth of the rainfall return period.
The The
disaster
water situation
depth andof Condition
inundation 2 is more
area serious
increase than
with theCondition
growth of1.theAllrainfall
inundation
returnareas are
period.
accumulated together as the largest inundation area. The largest inundation area
The disaster situation of Condition 2 is more serious than Condition 1. All inundation areas areof a 5-year flood in
Condition 1 is 1287.75 km 2, the largest inundation area of a 5-year flood in Condition 2 is 1520.35
accumulated together as the largest inundation area. The largest inundation area of a 5-year flood in
km2, and 1the
Condition relativekmdifference
is 1287.75 is inundation
2 , the largest 18%. The largest
area of ainundation
5-year floodarea of a 1000-year
in Condition flood
2 is 1520.35 kmin2,
Condition
and 1 is 2290.87
the relative km is
difference
2 , the largest
18%. inundation
The largest area ofarea
inundation 1000-year flood in flood
of a 1000-year Condition 2 is 2299.33
in Condition 1 is
km 2, and the relative difference is 0.37%. The inundation areas of different return
2290.87 km , the largest inundation area of 1000-year flood in Condition 2 is 2299.33 km2 , and the
2 periods are
compared
relative in Figure
difference is 9.
0.37%. The inundation areas of different return periods are compared in Figure 9.

Figure 9. Flood inundation areas under different recurrence interval storm events.
Figure 9. Flood inundation areas under different recurrence interval storm events.
The total inundation area increases with rainfall return period. With the increase of return
The
period, thetotal inundation
differences area increases
between with areas
inundation rainfall return period.
between ConditionWith the increase
1 and Conditionof return period,
2 decrease. It
the differences
means that thebetween inundation
flood risk reductionareas
duebetween Condition
to flood control 1works
and Condition
decreases2 decrease.
with the Itflood
means that
return
the floodThe
period. riskflood
reduction
risk due to flood
reduction control
effect worksnon-significant
becomes decreases with the
underflood return storm
extreme period.conditions.
The flood
risk
The reduction
inundation effect
areabecomes
is reducednon-significant
by 15.76%. under extreme storm conditions. The inundation area is
reduced
Theby 15.76%. water depth was set as hazard index of flood disaster, which was divided into
maximum
gradesTheaccording
maximum to water depth was
field surveys: set as m,
0 m–0.15 hazard index ofm,flood
0.15 m–0.30 0.30 disaster,
m–0.50 m, which
over was
0.55 mdivided into
[30]. Table
grades according
5 presents to field surveys:
the normalization 0 m–0.15 of
thresholds m, the
0.15 flood
m–0.30 m, 0.30
depth. m–0.50
The floodm,hazard
over 0.55 m [30].
maps are Table
drawn 5
presents
according thetonormalization
Table 5. Under thresholds
Conditionof the flood
1, the depth.
flood The flood
hazard mapshazard maps
of 1/10, areand
1/100, drawn according
1/1000 storm
events are shown in Figure 10. With the increase of flood return period, the flood hazard increases.
According to the flood hazard analysis, the hazard is higher in the upstream of Huangpu River and
the coastal area. The terrain of Jinshan and Songjiang District is low-lying, thus the flood hazards of
these areas are higher. Land reclamation projects were carried out in coastal area recently, for
example, Lingang New City Project. The areas reclaimed from the sea are prone to flooding as well.
 Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 11 of 18

Table 5. Normalization thresholds of the flood depth.

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health

Grade Water2016, 13, 787
Depth Impact Hazard 11 of 18
The curb is usually 15 cm, thus it has hardly effect
I 0 m < h ≤ 0.15 m None
on production and life.
to Table 5. IIUnder Condition 1, the flood hazard
0.15 m < h ≤ 0.30 m
It can be maps of 1/10,
able to invade 1/100,
simpler and
house, 1/1000 storm
with
Low
events are
shown in Figure 10. With the increase of flood doors-still
return next to the level
period, of the sidewalk.
the flood hazard increases. According to
It can interrupt traffic of vehicles and mainly
the flood hazard
III analysis,
0.30 m < the hazard
h ≤ 0.50 m is higher in the upstream of Huangpu River andMedium the coastal area.
of people.
The terrain of Jinshan and Songjiang District is low-lying, thus the flood hazards
The water will very probably have already invaded of these areas are
higher. Land
IV reclamation projects
h > 0.5 m were carried out in coastal area recently, for
the interior of houses, causing damages to their example, Lingang New
High
structure and
City Project. The areas reclaimed from the sea are prone to flooding as well.content.

(a) (b)

(c)
Figure 10. (a) 1 in 10 years flood hazard map; (b) 1 in 100 years flood hazard map; (c) 1 in 1000 years
Figure 10. (a) 1 in 10 years flood hazard map; (b) 1 in 100 years flood hazard map; (c) 1 in 1000 years
flood hazard map.
flood hazard map.
4.3. Vulnerability Analysis
Table 5. Normalization thresholds of the flood depth.
The damage caused by flooding is related to flooding characteristics, such as depth, velocity
and duration of flooding. In this paper the damage is estimated based on the depth of flooding
Grade Water Depth Impact Hazard
which is important and also relatively easy to determine. The loss rate is set up according to the
research of Nanjing The curb is usually 15 cm, thus it has hardly
I 0 m <Institute
h ď 0.15ofmGeography & Limnology and the disaster survey data of typhoons
None
effect on production and life.
and torrential rains [31]. The damage rate relations are shown in Figure 11.
It can be able to invade simpler house, with
II 0.15 m < h ď 0.30 m Low
doors-still next to the level of the sidewalk.
It can interrupt traffic of vehicles and
III 0.30 m < h ď 0.50 m Medium
mainly of people.
The water will very probably have already
IV h > 0.5 m invaded the interior of houses, causing High
damages to their structure and content.

4.3. Vulnerability Analysis

The damage caused by flooding is related to flooding characteristics, such as depth, velocity and
duration of flooding. In this paper the damage is estimated based on the depth of flooding which is
important and also relatively easy to determine. The loss rate is set up according to the research of
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 12 of 18

Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology and the disaster survey data of typhoons and torrential
rainsInt.
[31]. The damage
J. Environ. rate 2016,
Res. Public Health relations
13, 787 are shown in Figure 11. 12 of 18

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 12 of 18

Figure 11.Loss
Figure11. Loss rate
rate relations
relations ofofdifferent
different water
water depth.
depth.

Figure 11. Loss rate relations of different water depth.

4.4. Exposure
4.4. Exposure Analysis
Analysis
Exposure is often used to describe the people and assets that would be subjected to the threat
4.4. Exposure
Exposure is Analysis
often used to describe the people and assets that would be subjected to the threat
of floods, such as population, buildings, crops and lifelines. In this study, exposure presented as the
of floods,Exposure
such as population,
is often usedbuildings,
to describe crops and lifelines.
the people and assetsIn this
that study,
would beexposure
subjected presented
to the threatas the
number of external structure and internal property value of residential buildings. Residential areas
numberof floods, such as population, buildings, crops and lifelines. In this study, exposure presented as the
and oflandexternal
uses arestructure
extractedandbasedinternal property
on the 1:10,000 value of residential
topographic map of the buildings.
study area inResidential
2012. With areas
number
and land of
uses are external structure
extracted and internal property value of residential buildings. Residential areas
the increase flood return based
period,onthethe 1:10,000
flood topographic
exposure grows. Themap of the study
residential area
building in 2012.
density With the
is high
and
increase land
flood uses are
return extracted
period, based
the floodon the 1:10,000
exposure topographic
grows. The map of
residentialthe study area
building in 2012.
density With
is high in
in Minhang District, and its exposure map is drawn in Figure 12. A large proportion of the
the increase flood return period, the flood exposure grows. The residential building density is high
Minhang District,
residential and itsis exposure
buildings exposed tomap the is drawn inwater
inundation Figure 12. A
depth large0.5
below proportion of the residential
m. The cultivated land
in Minhang District, and its exposure map is drawn in Figure 12. A large proportion of the
density
buildings is high in
is exposed Songjiang
to the District,
inundation anddepth
water its exposure
below 0.5map is drawn
m. The in Figure
cultivated 13. A large
land density is high in
residential buildings is exposed to the inundation water depth below 0.5 m. The cultivated land
proportion
Songjiang of the
District, and cultivated
its landsmap
exposure are exposed
is drawn toininundation
Figure 13. water
A depths
large below 0.5
proportion of m. Some
the cultivated
density is high in Songjiang District, and its exposure map is drawn in Figure 13. A large
landscultivated
are exposed
proportion
landstonear both banks
of theinundation
cultivated lands
of thedepths
water river are
are exposed
submerged
below to 0.5 m. at higher
Some
inundation
water depths.
cultivated
water depthslands
belownear0.5 both
m. Somebanks of
the river are submerged
cultivated lands near at higher
both bankswater
of the depths.
river are submerged at higher water depths.

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 12. (a)
(a)The exposure of residential building
(b) under 1 in 10 years extreme flood;
(c) (b) The
exposure of residential building under 1 in 100 years extreme flood; (c) The exposure of residential
Figure 12. (a) The exposure of residential building under 1 in 10 years extreme flood; (b) The
12. (a) under
buildings
Figure The exposure
1 in 1000 of residential
years building under 1 in 10 years extreme flood; (b) The exposure
extreme flood.
exposure of residential building under 1 in 100 years extreme flood; (c) The exposure of residential
of residential building under 1 in 100 years extreme flood; (c) The exposure of residential buildings
buildings under 1 in 1000 years extreme flood.
under 1 in 1000 years extreme flood.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 13 of 18
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 13 of 18
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 13 of 18

(a) (b) (c)

(a) (b) (c)
Figure 13. (a) The exposure of cultivate land under 1 in 10 years extreme flood; (b) The exposure of
Figure 13. (a) The exposure of cultivate land under 1 in 10 years extreme flood; (b) The exposure
cultivate
Figure 13.land
(a) under
The 1 in 100ofyears
exposure extreme
cultivate landflood;
under(c)1 The
in exposure of cultivate land under 1 in 1000
of cultivate land under 1 in 100 years extreme flood; (c)10 years
The extreme
exposure offlood; (b) The
cultivate landexposure of
under 1 in
years extreme
cultivate land flood. 1 in 100 years extreme flood; (c) The exposure of cultivate land under 1 in 1000
under
1000 years extreme flood.
years extreme flood.
We assume that the population distribution of administration district is uniform. Then the
We assume
affected that can
the population distribution of administration district is uniform. Then the affected
We population
assume that be population
the calculated with Equation
distribution of(7):
administration district is uniform. Then the
population can be calculated with Equation (7):
affected population can be calculated with Equation (7):
=ÿ n ÿ m , (7)
Pe “
= d i Ai,j, (7)
(7)
i “1 j “1
where, is the affected population, is the number of the administration district, is the total
number of
where, Pe is
where, isthe
the administration
theaffected
affected district
population,
population, within the
is number
i is the study
the number area, is the
of theofadministration number
the administration of the grid
district,
district, cell
is
n is the totalthewithin
total
number
anumber
of certain ofresidential
the administration district,
the administration is the
district
district within total
within
the number
studythe jofisarea,
study
area, the
the grid iscells
number within
theofnumber the
the grid residential
ofcell
the adistrict,
grid cell
within within
certain
is the residential
a certain
residential population density
district, mdistrict, of is
is the totalthethe administration
number totalofnumber
the grid district
ofcells
the grid, and
within cells isresidential
the the
,within
the inundation residential
residential
district, ddistrict,
i is the
building
is the area
population of the
population
density gridadministration
of density
the j within
of the the administration
administration
district Ai,jdistrict
i, anddistrict , and
is the . The
, is affected
inundation population
theresidential
inundation under
residential
building area
different
building return
area periods
of the is
grid shown
j in
within Figure
the 14.
administration district . The affected
of the grid j within the administration district i. The affected population under different return periods population under
different
is shown return
in Figure periods
14. is shown in Figure 14.

Figure 14. Flood affected population under different recurrence interval storm events.
Figure
Figure 14.
14. Flood
Flood affected
affected population under different
population under different recurrence
recurrence interval
interval storm
storm events.
events.
4.5. R-D Function Construction
4.5. R-D
4.5. R-D Function
Function Construction
Construction
The direct economic losses of the classified assets depending on flood water depth in each
sub-district can
The direct be estimated
direct economic lossesseparately
economic losses of the according
the classified
classified to depending
assets the values on of flood
classified
waterassets,
depth relevant
in each
each
The of assets depending on flood water depth in
inundated
sub-district area
can of
be flood eventsseparately
estimated with different returntoperiods
according the and the
values of damage rates.
classified The
assets, flood
relevant
sub-district can be estimated separately according to the values of classified assets, relevant inundated
damage
inundated result
areaisofshown
flood inevents
Table with
6. The losses ofreturn
different temporary production and service cessation are
area of flood events with different return periods and theperiods
damageand theThe
rates. damage rates.
flood damage The flood
result is
ignored
damageinin this paper.
result These kinds6. of losses areofrelated to the inundatedand shut-down time, so the
shown Table is
6. shown in Table
The losses The
of temporary losses
production temporary production
and service service cessation
cessation are ignored are
in this paper.
losses
ignoredof in
thethis
industrial
paper. and
Thesecommercial
kinds of sectors are related
losses are probablytounderestimated in this paper.
the inundated shut-down time, so the
losses of the industrial and commercial sectors are probably underestimated in this paper.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 14 of 18

These kinds of losses are related to the inundated shut-down time, so the losses of the industrial and
commercial sectors are probably underestimated in this paper.

Table 6. The simulation results of flood damage (million CNY).

Statistical Return
Building Property Agriculture Industry Commerce Road Railway Total
Index Period
5 49.74 84.60 104.25 104.86 14.55 5.44 0.22 363.66
10 103.86 165.69 207.69 296.52 36.19 14.12 0.79 824.85
20 172.77 327.59 512.68 452.13 55.95 20.71 1.15 1542.99
Condition 1 50 309.73 515.66 716.81 702.35 89.18 31.29 1.86 2366.87
100 452.96 694.48 877.44 929.16 120.21 39.90 2.41 3116.57
200 615.90 888.56 1022.86 1181.11 155.18 48.82 3.04 3915.47
1000 1086.34 1409.14 1331.91 1841.77 249.47 75.76 4.54 5998.94
5 53.54 97.92 160.41 141.66 19.74 6.02 0.29 479.57
10 118.41 193.09 277.38 265.99 36.45 10.99 0.55 902.86
20 199.39 376.88 613.29 539.47 67.43 23.40 1.26 1821.13
Condition 2 50 350.30 574.33 823.56 802.45 103.94 33.80 1.88 2690.26
100 547.43 831.52 106.224 1132.48 150.15 46.20 2.80 3772.82
200 673.53 958.04 1104.33 1283.01 171.36 51.99 3.07 4749.18
1000 1154.46 1483.33 1389.57 1945.60 269.95 77.84 4.46 6325.21

Two functions are selected to fit flood damage: Gompertz function and Logistics function.

(1) Gompertz function:

´kpR´Rc q
D “ Ae´e (8)

where, D is the flood damage, R is the return period of flood, A is the maximum damage, Rc is
the critical period, and k is the integrated loss coefficient. Function characteristics: the minimum
value is 0, the maximum value is A, the abscissa of critical point is Rc, and the maximum slope
is Ak/e.
(2) Logistics function:
A
D“ (9)
1 ` e ´k p R´ R c q

Function characteristics: the minimum value is 0, the maximum value is A, the abscissa of critical
point is Rc, and the maximum slope is Ak/e. The fitting results are shown in Table 7. The Adjusted R2
is particularly useful in the feature selection stage of model building. The closer that this value is to 1,
the better fitting the model is. The Gompertz function is more suitable than the Logistic function to
present flood damage. The critical period Rc of Condition 1 is bigger than Condition 2. However, the
integrated loss coefficient k of Condition 1 is smaller than Condition 2. It means that the flood control
works have an impact on both flood control capacity and flood vulnerability. The fitting results are
shown in Figure 15, where the flood risk reduction is represents as the shade of gray.

Table 7. Fitting result of two functions.

Index Function A Rc k Adjusted R2

Gompertz 5859.27 66.00 0.0092 0.92
Condition 1
Logistic 5857.20 115.18 0.013 0.89
Gompertz 6047.61 47.97 0.013 0.94
Condition 2
Logistic 5886.97 76.52 0.019 0.91
Int.
Int.J.J.Environ.
Environ. Res.
Res. Public
Public Health 2016, 13,
Health 2016, 13, 787
787 15
15of
of18
18

Figure 15. The fitting results of flood damage function.

Figure 15. The fitting results of flood damage function.

Equation
Equation(6) (6)expresses thethe
expresses benefit of flood
benefit control
of flood measure.
control It oftenItused
measure. to assess
often used the feasibility
to assess the
of new constructions.
feasibility In this paper,
of new constructions. In we
thisuse it towe
paper, assess
use the
it toflood risk
assess thereduction due
flood risk to the established
reduction due to the
flood controlflood
established system. The system.
control flood risk reduction
The flood riskis calculated
reduction is ascalculated
follows: as follows:
r 1000
1000 r 1000
1000

Riskreduction “
Riskreduction 
0
0 DD2 pRqdR
(
2r
R dR
)
1000
´ 0
0
DD1(pRqdR
1
R )dR “ 7.14%
 7.14%
 (10)
(10)
0 1000D2 pRqdR
r 66
 0
D2(R )dR
r 66
0 D2 p RqdR´ 0 D1 p RqdR
Riskreduction1 “ r 66 “ 15.59%
66 D2 p RqdR
66
 r D (DR )rpdR
RqdR´ 
0
 r DD(pRRq)dR
1000
(11)
1000 1
2 dR
Risk
Risk  “0
reduction2
reduction 1
66 2
15.59%
“7.06%
661000
0
66 1


D p RqdR
D (R )dR 66
2
2

0
The damage transition point C corresponds to the parameter Rc (critical return period), which
(11)
1000 1000
is associated with the integrated flood defense
Riskreduction
Condition 1, and Rc = 47.97 
in Condition 66
2. We

D2(Rcapability
)dR 
choose the66
orD flood
larger
1
 7.06%
one. Then

(R )dRcontrol standard. Rc = 66.00 in
the benefit can be divided
2 1000
into two parts. Within the flood control capacity, flood
66
D2(Rrisk 
)dR is reduced by 15.59% and the effect of
flood risk reduction is significant. Once flood magnitude exceeds the flood control standard, the flood
damage Thewill
damage transition
sharply increasepoint C corresponds
and show the featureto of
themutability
parameterand Rc the
(critical
floodreturn
risk isperiod), which
only reduced
is associated
by 7.06%. with the integrated flood defense capability or flood control standard. Rc = 66.00 in
Condition 1, and Rc = 47.97 in Condition 2. We choose the larger one. Then the benefit can be
5. Conclusions
divided into two parts. Within the flood control capacity, flood risk is reduced by 15.59% and the
effectDeveloping
of flood appropriate
risk reduction is significant.
emergency Once
responses flood magnitude
to address and preventexceeds the floodrequires
flood inundation control
a reliable flood risk analysis including hazard, vulnerability and exposure. This paper exploresflood
standard, the flood damage will sharply increase and show the feature of mutability and the the
risk is only
spatial reduced of
distributions byflooding,
7.06%. the vulnerability of different kind of assets and the flood prevention
capacity, particularly concerning buildings, land uses and flood control works in Pudong (Shanghai,
5. Conclusions
China). A baseline framework was established that could be used to assess the flood disaster risks and
flood Developing
risk reduction. We reach the
appropriate following responses
emergency conclusions:
to address and prevent flood inundation
requires a reliable flood risk analysis including hazard, vulnerability and exposure. This paper
1. Scenario modelling of flood inundation from extreme rainfall events is a challenge, particularly in
explores the spatial distributions of flooding, the vulnerability of different kind of assets and the
urban areas. In order to address the impact of buildings, land uses and flood control works issues
flood prevention capacity, particularly concerning buildings, land uses and flood control works in
on flood risk, the specific model parameters are required. The flood inundation modelling using
Pudong (Shanghai, China). A baseline framework was established that could be used to assess the
UFSM indicated that AAR is an important parameter. It can be utilized to describe the impact
flood disaster risks and flood risk reduction. We reach the following conclusions:
of buildings and land uses. The model was validated using a historical flood event: Typhoon
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 787 16 of 18

Fitow, which was the most serious flood in recent years. The simulation results match well with
the surveyed inundation depths and inundated areas. However, the model was only tested for a
single observed event. It is recommended that the model also be tested and evaluated for more
storm events to enhance the reliability of the model outputs.
2. The flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure were analyzed. A flood high risk may be caused
by elevation, land uses and buildings present in the area. The results indicate that the upstream
of Huangpu River and the coastal area are prone to floods. The UFDAM were used in this case
study. The evaluation index system of UFDAM is able to describe the indirect loss of urban
disaster caused by flooding or waterlogging. These indexes should be easily adopted by the
administrative department for emergency management. Hence, they are consistent with the
indicators of local statistics yearbooks. The convenience of calculation and feasibility of obtaining
are improved. The indirect loss should be taken in to account, and the damage rates of classified
assets at different level of water depth should be properly modified according to the duration of
inundation and the vulnerabilities of the assets in the future.
3. The flood risk is expressed as R-D function, which contains probability and consequence of
flood. The 24-h design rainfalls with frequency of 0.001, 0.002, 0.005, 0.01, 0.02, and 0.05 were
taken as input data for scenario modeling. The simulation results are utilized as data sample for
flood damage function construction. The flood risk reduction is expressed as the area between
the two curves. The S-shaped R-D function can describe the impact of flood capability well.
The result shows that within the flood control capacity, flood risk is reduced by 15.59% and
flood risk reduction is significant. Once flood magnitude exceeds the flood control standard,
the flood damage will increase sharply. The flood risk is only reduced by 7.06%. It means that
the flood prevention measures may cease to be effective when the flood scale exceeds the flood
control standard. It is difficult to meet the increasing demand for flood control solely relying on
structural measures.
4. Rc (critical return period) is associated with the integrated flood defense capability or flood
control standard of the study area. Resistance is related to the system’s ability to prevent floods,
while resilience determines the ease with which the system recovers from floods [32]. Within
the defense standard, the flood control works operate well. Structural measures are taken as the
main resistance strategies, which are aimed at flood prevention. When the flood scale exceeds the
defense capability, the situation gets out of control. The non-structural measures are taken as the
main resilience strategies to minimize the flood impacts and enhance the recovery from those
impacts. Under the impact of climate changes and urbanization, the flood risk increases and the
flood mitigation become more difficult, complex and long-term. More emphasis should be put on
flood forecasting, flood emergency planning and response, and post-flood recovery. A reasonable
flood risk analysis is important, which can be utilized for land use planning, for flood control
works design, and for emergency response decision making.

Acknowledgments: The work described in this publication was supported by (1) Key Projects in the National
Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period (No. 2012BAC21B02); (2) Public
Welfare Special Research Projects of Ministry of Water Resources (No. 201401038, No. 201501014); (3) IWHR
Research & Development Support Program (No. JZ0145B052016).
Author Contributions: Xiaotao Cheng and Chaochao Li contributed ideas concerning the structure and content
of the article. The analysis was carried out by Chaochao Li under supervision of Xiaotao Cheng and the technical
help of Na Li. The manuscript was further improved and revised by Qianyu, Guangyuan Kan and Xiaohe Du.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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