LIFIED IN VESTO RS AN D Q UALIFIED CLIEN TS. FO R PUBLIC DISTRIBUTIO N IN THE U.S.

Turning tide?
Cumulative flows to emerging market funds, 2013–2018
ns of investor
15%
ties, but with
Cumulative flows as share of assets

Bond s
10 EM d eb t looks more vulnerab le
ady inflows into to out fl ow s than eq uities
ds and pushed 5
uities since 2016
0
ass since 2013
-5
ng tide? chart.
Eq uit y
Likely a recession -10

ar-term horizon. -15

to jump back in
-20
cess.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
n equities, where
Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from EPFR, September 2018. Notes: The lines show cumulative net
flows to EM-focused mutual funds and exchange-traded funds as a percentage of the assets under management in these
funds at the start of 2013.
althy global
slowed growth, Trade tremors
ivity ahead that BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for U.S.-China relations, 2005–2018

jectives: reining 4 Trump announces

China b ecomes fi rst tarif fs
hrough b ank top U.S. Ob ama p ivot s
foreign creditor tow ard Asia
is may provide 2 Trump
nomination
Score

way. Escalating
Xi t akes reins
s focused on this
0
side may already
Ob ama-Xi U.S. election
ashb oard. summit
-2
forms to offset
2005 2010 2015 2018
Fig 1.1 Linkages between the main risk type
Fig 1. 2 Wider linkages between the main risk types

The following countries have new income groups:

Country Old group New group

Angola Upper-middle Lower-middle

Croatia High-income Upper-middle

Georgia Upper-middle Lower-middle

Jordan Upper-middle Lower-middle

Nauru High-income Upper-middle

Palau Upper-middle High-income

Samoa Lower-middle Upper-middle

Tonga Lower-middle Upper-middle

As of July 1 2017, the new thresholds for classification by income are:

Threshold GNI/Capita (current US$)

Low-income < 1,005

Lower-middle income 1,006 - 3,955

Upper-middle income 3,956 - 12,235

High-income > 12,235