Our Salem: Today

TAC and SAC Meeting: April 3, 2019

Meeting Agenda
• Project Update

• City Profile

• Greenhouse Gas (GhG) Inventory

• Draft Scenarios and Indicators

• Next Steps

• Public Comment (Last 15 Minutes)

2
 What is a Comprehensive
Plan?
Comprehensive plans…
 Are based on residents’ and
stakeholders’ values and
dreams
 Provide a shared vision for
the city to guide future
growth and development

 Provide policies and action items to implement the shared vision

3
 Salem’s Comprehensive Plan
Update Process

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

Existing Community Update Comp
Conditions + Vision Plan
Scenarios
Fall 2018 – Spring TBD TBD
2019

4
 Process and Schedule
We are
here!
1 2

1 2 3 4 5
Review Choose Develop Report Report Back
Existing Indicators Scenarios Card
Plans

5
City Profile
6
7
60,000 more people by 2035

Est.
Current 2035
Pop. Pop.

8
Salem’s Population is Aging

9
Hispanic/Latino Population is
Increasing

1010
Salem has a mix of housing types

11
Housing prices are rising following
regional and national trends

12
Community Greenhouse Gas
(GhG) Inventory
13
 What is a Community Greenhouse
Gas (GhG) Inventory?

• Greenhouse gases absorb and emit

the sun’s energy.
• GhG inventories are a full accounting
of these gases emitted into and
removed (sequestrated) from the
atmosphere.
• A community GhG inventory tracks
emissions and sequestration
associated with activities that occur
within a city, county, or region.
 Why Create a Community GhG
Inventory for Salem?

City of Ashland GhG Inventory

Track progress
over time

• Develop policies around GhG reduction

targets.

(2016)
• Identify activities, industries, and housing
types that provide GhG reductions benefits.

Heartland 2050 Regional Vision

Set a baseline
for scenarios

(Omaha, NE)
 Progress To-Date

Data Draft
Protocol Final Draft Final
Acquisition Inventory
Selection Inventory Report Report
(Sept – (Dec -
(Sept) (April) (May) (June)
Nov) March)

We are here
Scope of Salem’s GHG Inventory

• Community-Scale GHG
Inventory
• Not consumption-based
 Six Emissions Categories / 3 Scopes

SCOPE 1 SCOPE 2 SCOPE 3

TRANSPORTATION RES / COMMERCIAL WATER AND ELECTRICITY AGRICULTURE / WASTE

FUEL WASTEWATER GENERATION URBAN FORESTRY GENERATION

Passenger and Combustible fuel Water supply and Electricity generated Carbon released by Solid waste sent
freight vehicle miles use in residential wastewater by PGE and Salem agricultural fertilizer to landfills and
traveled within and commercial generation within Electric to customers and carbon removed waste-to-energy
Salem UGB. buildings. Salem UGB. within Salem UGB. from urban tree facilities.
cover.
 Total Emissions by Source
2%
Res / Commercial Fuel
12%

SCOPE 1
25% Transportation

Water and Wastewater

SCOPE 2 SCOPE 3
4%
Electricity
57%

Waste Generation
1.72 Million MT CO2e
8.2 MT CO2e per Capita DOES NOT INCLUDE
23,685 MT CO2e SEQUESTERED
DRAFT RESULTS FROM TREE CANOPY
SUBJECT TO REVISION
 Transportation
Emissions

960,000 MT CO2e
4,624,776 Average Daily VMT

• Includes trips going into the

Salem UGB or originating
from the Salem UGB
• Does not include through-
trips
• Includes flights to/from
Salem municipal airport

DRAFT RESULTS
SUBJECT TO REVISION Source: Cascadia Partners and MWVCOG
 Electricity
Emissions
Electricity Fuel Mix

33%

15%
100%
28%

15%
9%
Portland General Electric Salem Electric
Wind Hydro Natural Gas/Oil Coal Purchased Power Agreements
DRAFT RESULTS
SUBJECT TO REVISION
 Electricity
Emissions
Electricity use data by sector and utility (kWh)
423,817 MT CO2e
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000 2,803 MT CO2e

200,000,000
-
Portland General Electric (PGE) Salem Electric (SE)

Residential Commercial/Industrial Institutional

DRAFT RESULTS
SUBJECT TO REVISION
Comparing the Draft Inventory to
Other Oregon Communities
Community Most Recent Inventory Year

Salem 2016
Eugene 2015
Beaverton 2013
Bend 2016
Portland / Multnomah County 2008
Ashland 2015
Milwaukie 2016

Caveats:
• Every community is different
• Some data is older
• Minor inconsistencies between inventories
 Per Capita Emissions (MT CO2e)

12.6
11.9
11.5
10.4

8.2 8.5

5.7

DRAFT RESULTS
SUBJECT TO REVISION
 Per-Capita Waste Emissions (MT CO2e)

For Salem, includes emissions from

Covanta Marion, Pacific Northwest
Generation Cooperative, and Coffin
Butte Landfill

0.57
0.50
0.41 0.43

0.33

0.06
0.02

* *

*May be inconsistent due to GHG reporting standards used DRAFT RESULTS

SUBJECT TO REVISION
 Per-Capita Energy* Emissions (MT CO2e)
8.5

7.1 7.3

5.5

4.3

3.2

2.1

*Stationary consumption of electricity, DRAFT RESULTS

natural gas, and other fuels SUBJECT TO REVISION
 Per-Capita Transportation Emissions (MT CO2e)

5.9 For Salem, does not include trips starting

and ending outside Salem UGB

4.6 4.6

3.8 3.7
3.0
2.8

DRAFT RESULTS
SUBJECT TO REVISION
 Transportation Emissions as Share of Overall Emissions

56% 53% 51%

45%
38%

27% 29%

DRAFT RESULTS
SUBJECT TO REVISION
Next Steps

For Us:
• We will finalize the GHG inventory
• Prepare a summary report
• Prepare a technical memorandum

For You:
• Continue to track future progress
• Potentially look back to assess trends
• Identify policies that could impact community GHG
emissions
Indicators and Scenarios
31
Indicators Chosen

The indicators are:

1. Variables that can be
measured on a map
2. Questions for which good
data is available
3. Can be influenced by a
Comprehensive Plan

32
December Community Workshop

33
 Top 20 Indicators
“Result Areas”
Welcoming and Safe, Reliable, Strong and Good Natural Safe
Livable Efficient Diverse Governance Environment Community
Community Infrastructure Economy Stewardship
Affordability Walk and transit Employment Revenue-to-cost Development in Traffic/
friendliness mix ratio environmentally pedestrian
sensitive areas accidents
Housing Access to Average wage Annual level of Tree canopy Active
affordability frequent transit service transportation
(expenditures per
capita)
Complete Bicycle and Jobs/housing Property tax Total
neighborhoods pedestrian use balance revenue greenhouse gas
emissions
Proximity to Air pollutant
parks and trails reduction
Infill
development/
redevelopment

34
 Salem is Growing
How We Grow Matters

35
 What is Scenario Planning?

Conventional Approach: One Possible Future

The Present The Future

36
Scenario Planning Explores
Multiple Possible Futures

37
Two Future Scenarios
These are not alternative growth scenarios used for Visioning

Both assume current City policies

Scenario 1: Current Trends (Most Likely)
• Population: 54,000 more people (Forecast =60,000)
• Density: Lower than allowed
• Redevelopment: Some

Scenario 2: Zoning Buildout (Maximum Density)

• Population: 93,000 more people
• Density: Maximum allowed (housing)
• Redevelopment: Much more

38
New Households

Current Trends Zoning Buildout

39
New Jobs

Current Trends Zoning Buildout

40
New Activity =
Households + Jobs

Current Trends Zoning Buildout

41
All Households = Today +
Future

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

42
What is a Comprehensive
All Jobs = Today + Future
Plan?

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

43
Scenario Analysis using
Envision Tomorrow

BUILDING-LEVEL SPATIAL SCENARIOS REAL-TIME

MODELING ANALYTICS

44
 Many Indicator Results were Different
Similar: Different:
1. Affordability (Housing + 15. Property Tax Revenue
Transportation + Energy) 16. Traffic/Pedestrian Accidents
2. Housing Affordability 17. Infill Development/
3. Complete Neighborhoods Redevelopment
4. Walk and Transit Friendliness 18. Development in Slopes,
5. Jobs/Housing Balance Floodplain and Riparian Areas
6. Active Transportation 19. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
7. Bicycle and Pedestrian Use 20. Air Pollution Reduction
8. Average Wage
9. Tree Canopy
10. Employment Mix
11. Access to Frequent Transit
12. Proximity to Parks and Trails
13. Revenue-to-Cost Ratio
14. Annual Level of Service
Why Were They Different?

• More development in the Zoning Buildout

Scenario
• Different types of development
• Redevelopment
• Mixed use Downtown
• Population varies between scenarios (54,000
vs. 93,000)
• Direct impact on revenue, accidents, etc.
• Less to do with where development occurs
Infill and Redevelopment
Different

Housing Infill and Redevelopment

80%
59%
60% 47%
40% 31%
20%

0% Existing Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Today Current Zoning
Trends Buildout
Traffic Traffic
CrashesAccidents

Annual Traffic Crashes (injuries and fatalities)

2,500

2,000
1,700 1,900
1,500 1,300
1,000

500

-
18 25 25
Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

Fatal Crashes Injury Crashes

Salem Target: Zero fatalities by 2030
 Per Household
Greenhouse Revenue-to-
Gas Emissions
Cost Use
from Electricity Ratio

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

 Greenhouse Gas Emissions
from Auto Travel
Transportation Carbon Emissions (CO2, g/day)
1,600,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,000,000,000

1.5 B
800,000,000 1.4 B

600,000,000 1.0 B

400,000,000

200,000,000

-
Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

50
 Many Indicator Results were Similar
Similar: Different:
1. Affordability (Housing + 15. Property Tax Revenue
Transportation + Energy) 16. Traffic/Pedestrian Accidents
2. Housing Affordability 17. Infill Development/
3. Complete Neighborhoods Redevelopment
4. Walk and Transit Friendliness 18. Development in Slopes,
5. Jobs/Housing Balance Floodplain and Riparian Areas
6. Active Transportation 19. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
7. Bicycle and Pedestrian Use 20. Air Pollution Reduction
8. Average Wage
9. Tree Canopy
10. Employment Mix
11. Access to Frequent Transit
12. Proximity to Parks and Trails
13. Revenue-to-Cost Ratio
14. Annual Level of Service
Why Were They Similar?
• New homes continue to be built on the edges
• New jobs mirror current jobs
• Current policies remain in place
Current Trends Zoning Buildout

52
Complete Neighborhoods

100%

80%
65% 62%
60%
60%
44%
40% Portland
23% Today 50%
20%

0%
Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout
Complete Neighborhood New Households Only

53
 Complete Neighborhoods

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

No criteria matched All 7 criteria matched

54
AccessAccess
to Transit
to Transit

15 Minute Service:
All Development
80%
61% 56%
60% 54%
38%
40% 31% 31%
20%
0%
Today
Existing
Current
Scenario 1
Zoning
Scenario 2

Trends Buildout

55
AccessAccess
to Transit
to Transit
15 Minute Service:
New Development
50%
40% 47%
30%
31%
20%
Goal 10.5%
10%
6% 20%
0%
Scenario 1 Scenario 3

Current Zoning
Trends Buildout

Goal: 10.5% of new units have access within ¼ mile of 15 min service
56
 Bike and Pedestrian
Bicycle and Pedestrian Use
Use/Mode Split
14%
12% Walk goal 11%
10%
8%
6% Bike goal 5%
4%
2% 3.2% 2.3% 3.3%

0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Today
Today Current Trends
Trends Continue Zoning Buildout
Zoning Buildout
Bike Walk
 Bike
Bicycle andand Pedestrian
Pedestrian Use:
Use/Mode Split
Peer Cities

16%
Bike Walk
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
 Traffic
Proximity Accidents
to Parks and Trails

Park Access
100%
75% 73% 72%
50%

0%
Existing Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Trail Access
100% 89% 85% 85%

50%

0%
Existing
Today Current
Scenario 1
Zoning
Scenario 2

Trends Buildout
Other research: Every resident lives with ½ mile of a park.
 Bike
Housing and Pedestrian
+ Transportation + Energy
CostUse/Mode
of HouseholdSplit
income
50%
National Standard 45%
45%
40%
36% 36% 36%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout
What is a Comprehensive
All Jobs = Today + Future
Plan?

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

 Average Wage per Job

$50,000

$40,000

$30,000
$37K $39K $40K
$20,000

$10,000

$0
Existing Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Today Current Zoning
Trends Buildout
 Average Wage: Peer Cities
Average Wage Per Capita Salem Today
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$-
 Slopes, Riparian Areas +
Riparian Areas + Floodplain
Floodplain

100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 52% 54%
50% 44% 40%
40% 38%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Existing
Today
Scenario 1
Current Zoning
Scenario 2

Trends Buildout
 Slopes, Riparian
Development Areas
in areas with +
slopes 10%Floodplain
+

100%

50%

0%
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Current Zoning
Trends Buildout
Tree Canopy
Tree Canopy

30%
25% Goal 23%
20%
15% 19% 18% 18%
10%
5%
0%
Today Trends Continue Zoning Buildout

Today Current Zoning

Trends Buildout
Few Adopted Targets

Indicator Adopted Target Meeting Target?

Tree Canopy 23% coverage No

Bike – 3% by 2020, 5% by 2030

Walk Bike
Ped – 7% by 2020, 11% by 2030 No
41% of new housing units w/in ¼
mile of 30 min service and 10.5%
Transit
w/in ¼ mile of 15 min service by No
2030
Reduce pedestrian crashes by
Traffic Accidents 50% and no fatal crashes by No
2030
What happens next?

• Create report card to

evaluate Salem today and
in the future under
current policies

• May 8th – Public event to

report back
• 6 pm at Court Street
Christian Church

68
 Public Open House May 8th

Visit project website for updates:

www.cityofsalem.net/Pages/our-salem.aspx

69
Our Salem: Today

TAC and SAC Meeting: April 3, 2019