POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 8TH APRIL 2019, 6 AM EST

Alberta Election - Post-Debate

Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
Post-Debate Reaction
8th April 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted on April 4th to 5th, 2019 among
a sample of 876 adults, 18 years of age or older,
living in Alberta. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on both landlines
and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-3.31%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
ALBERTANS SEE KENNEY AS DEBATE WINNER

8 April 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – Albertans think that United Conservative Party Jason Kenney won the Alberta
leaders’ debate on Thursday, even though those surveyed immediately after the debate ended thought
that Premier Rachel Notley was the victor.

Those are the findings from the latest survey of Albertan voters conducted by Mainstreet Research. The
poll surveyed 876 Albertans on April 4th to 5th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.31% and is accurate
19 times out of 20.

“The difference in opinion over who won between the two days of polling is remarkable,” said Quito
Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “We may have observed what kind of effect that
pundits and commentators on the media can have on public opinion, as most pundits felt that Kenney
was the winner.”

Among the respondents who watched the debate, 42.9% thought that Kenney won, compared to 31.9%
who thought that Notley carried the debate. 5.9% thought Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel won,
and 5.4% believed Alberta Liberal leader David Khan was the winner.

However, the numbers look different among those who were surveyed immediately after the debate.
38.7% of respondents thought that Notley won, 34.4% felt that Kenney was the winner, followed by 8.2%
for Mandel, and 6.4% for Khan.

Among Friday’s respondents, 52.8% said Kenney won, 24.1% thought that Notley was the winner, 4.4%
thought Khan won the debate, followed by 3.6% for Mandel.

The poll also also asked which party Albertans would vote for if the election were today. Among decided
and leaning voters, the UCP have 50.5% (-0.2% from Mainstreet’s previous poll), while the NDP have 38%
(+0.2%). The Alberta Party have 5.8% (+1.5%), and the Alberta Liberal Party come in 2% (-0.8%).

“While it looks like the needle hasn’t moved much since our last public poll, the truth is that the UCP have
made up ground since the beginning of the election,” added Maggi. “Our daily tracker subscribers saw
a tighter race a few days ago.”

“Right now, the UCP have the momentum, and the perception that Kenney won the debate is certainly
helping him right now in terms of public support.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters
vote for?

11.8%

1.7%

3.8%
33.6%
1.4%
1.8%

All Voters

All Voters
Decided 45.9%
and Leaning Voters
9.8%

0.6%
2.3% 2%
5.8% 26.3%
NDP
1.7% United Conservatives Alberta Liberals
4.7%
2%
Freedom Conservative Alberta Party Alberta Greens
2.2%
Undecided
4.1%
38%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters

50.5%

49.9%

NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative

NDP United Conservatives Alberta Liberals
Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party Undecided
Freedom Conservative Alberta Party Alberta Greens
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(broken out by regions)

38.7%
49.3%
Calgary CMA

3.8%
2.1%
4.9%
1.1%

49%
39.8%
Edmonton CMA

1.2%
1.1%
7.8%
1.2%

26.30%
62.40%
Rest of Alberta

0.30%
1.70%
5.10%
4.10%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative

Alberta Party Alberta Greens

 Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do
you think won Thursday’s candidate debate?

All Respondents
All Respondents Who Watched Or Followed the Debate

13.8%

31.9%
5.9%

5.4%

All Respondents

42.9%

First Day of Fielding (April 4th)

First Day of Fielding (April 4th) Second Day of Fielding (April 5th)
Thursday’s Respondents Friday’s Respondents
Rachel Notley, NDP Jason Kenney, UCP

12.3%
David Khan, Alberta Liberals Stephen Mandel, Alberta Party
12.3%
15%
Not Sure
24.1%
8.2%
8.2% 3.6%
38.7%
38.7%
4.4%
6.4%
6.4% First Day of Fielding (April 4th)
First Day of Fielding (April 4th) Second Day of Fielding (April 5th)

34.4%
34.4%
52.8%

Rachel Notley, NDP Jason Kenney, UCP

Rachel Notley, NDP Jason Kenney, UCP Rachel Notley, NDP Jason Kenney, UCP
David Khan, Alberta Liberals Stephen Mandel, Alberta Party
David Khan, Alberta Liberals Stephen Mandel, Alberta Party David Khan, Alberta Liberals Stephen Mandel, Alberta Party
Not Sure
Not Sure Not Sure
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

8.8%
13.5%
2.2%

2.8%

40.9%
42.2%

Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

46.7%

Rachel Notley 42.9%

David Khan Stephen Mandel

13.2%

18.8%
3.7% 25.2%
31.3%
29.8%
32%

Rachel Notley
David Khan Stephen Mandel

29.5%

16.4%
28.6%
19.6% 51.8%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure

Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 33.6% 29.3% 37.9% 45.4% 28.4% 25% 32.4% 34.9% 41.8% 23.9%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 45.9% 52.7% 39.2% 32.1% 51.7% 55.3% 48.9% 46.2% 35.6% 55.5%
Liberals led by David Khan 1.8% 1.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 1.4% 2.1% 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 2% 0.6% 1.4%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 3.8% 3% 4.5% 5.1% 2.7% 3.2% 3.8% 2.8% 5.5% 3.4%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 1.7% 1.2% 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 3.6%
Undecided 11.8% 10.5% 13% 11% 11% 12.8% 12.9% 9.9% 14.1% 12.0%
Unweighted Frequency 876 477 399 201 275 270 130 315 234 327
Weighted Frequency 876 436 440 279 238 219 139 358 255 263

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 36.2% 31.1% 41.4% 47.1% 30.7% 27.7% 37.5% 36.9% 47.1% 24.8%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 48.1% 55.1% 41.3% 34.4% 54.5% 57.4% 50.3% 47% 38.4% 59.1%
Liberals led by David Khan 1.9% 1.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2% 0.9% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 1.6% 2.5% 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.9% 2% 1.1% 1.7%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 5.5% 4.8% 6.2% 7.5% 4.1% 4.4% 5.5% 4.6% 7.5% 4.8%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 1.9% 1.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 1% 0.6% 1% 1.1% 3.9%
Undecided 4.6% 3.7% 5.5% 4.6% 4.2% 6% 3.3% 4.7% 3.7% 5.4%
Unweighted Frequency 876 477 399 201 275 270 130 315 234 327
Weighted Frequency 876 436 440 279 238 219 139 358 255 263

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 38% 32.2% 43.7% 49.3% 32.1% 29.5% 38.7% 38.7% 49% 26.3%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 50.5% 57.3% 43.7% 36% 56.8% 61% 52.1% 49.3% 39.8% 62.4%
Liberals led by David Khan 2% 1.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 0.9% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 1.7% 2.6% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 2% 2.1% 1.1% 1.7%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 5.8% 5% 6.5% 7.9% 4.3% 4.7% 5.7% 4.9% 7.8% 5.1%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 2% 1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 1.1% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 4.1%
Unweighted Frequency 835 459 376 192 263 255 125 301 225 309
Weighted Frequency 835 416 419 266 227 209 133 341 243 251
Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think won
Thursday’s candidate debate?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Rachel Notley, NDP 31.9% 31.2% 32.5% 38.7% 32.1% 25.4% 27.9% 31.8% 37.9% 26%
Jason Kenney, UCP 42.9% 48.3% 37.7% 40.2% 40.3% 45.2% 49.5% 43.7% 33.9% 50.7%
David Khan, Alberta Liberals 5.4% 4.1% 6.8% 3.5% 8.4% 6.1% 3.3% 5.8% 7.1% 3.3%
Stephen Mandel, Alberta Party 5.9% 4.9% 6.9% 3% 6.7% 7.4% 8.2% 4.5% 7.7% 6.1%
Not Sure 13.8% 11.5% 16.1% 14.6% 12.6% 15.9% 11.1% 14.1% 13.4% 13.9%
Unweighted Frequency 421 242 179 87 126 136 72 164 116 141
Weighted Frequency 421 210 211 134 115 105 67 172 123 126

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rachel Notley?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 42.2% 39.8% 44.6% 48% 42.6% 33% 44.3% 43.2% 52.4% 30.9%
Unfavourable 46.7% 51.8% 41.7% 41% 49.3% 51.8% 45.8% 43.1% 37% 61.2%
Not Familiar with Rachel Notley 2.2% 1.8% 2.7% 3.6% 1.9% 2% 0.6% 2.4% 2.4% 1.9%
Not sure 8.8% 6.6% 11% 7.5% 6.1% 13.2% 9.3% 11.3% 8.2% 6%
Unweighted Frequency 876 477 399 201 275 270 130 315 234 327
Weighted Frequency 876 436 440 279 238 219 139 358 255 263

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 40.9% 48.5% 33.3% 30.5% 44.1% 45.9% 48.3% 42% 32.8% 47.3%
Unfavourable 42.9% 36.7% 49% 51.7% 42.4% 34.2% 39.6% 43% 51.3% 34.4%
Not Familiar with Jason Kenney 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% 4.5% 1.7% 2.8% 1.3% 2.2% 2.3% 4%
Not sure 13.5% 11.8% 15.1% 13.3% 11.8% 17.1% 10.8% 12.7% 13.5% 14.4%
Unweighted Frequency 876 477 399 201 275 270 130 315 234 327
Weighted Frequency 876 436 440 279 238 219 139 358 255 263

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of David Khan?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 18.8% 18.1% 19.5% 17.7% 19.5% 17% 22.7% 20.7% 20.6% 14.4%
Unfavourable 29.5% 36% 23.1% 24.1% 32.3% 34.4% 28.1% 25% 31.8% 33.5%
Not Familiar with David Khan 19.6% 17.7% 21.6% 20.5% 19.5% 17.4% 21.7% 19.1% 15% 24.9%
Not sure 32% 28.3% 35.7% 37.7% 28.7% 31.3% 27.6% 35.1% 32.7% 27.2%
Unweighted Frequency 876 477 399 201 275 270 130 315 234 327
Weighted Frequency 876 436 440 279 238 219 139 358 255 263

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Stephen Mandel?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 25.2% 30.1% 20.4% 19.6% 28.5% 25.1% 31% 24.4% 28.9% 22.8%
Unfavourable 28.6% 31.7% 25.4% 27% 30.6% 30.4% 25.5% 25.2% 32.2% 29.7%
Not Familiar with Stephen Mandel 16.4% 13.2% 19.6% 18.6% 15.7% 13.5% 17.6% 20.8% 7% 19.5%
Not sure 29.8% 25% 34.6% 34.8% 25.2% 31% 25.8% 29.6% 31.9% 28%
Unweighted Frequency 876 477 399 201 275 270 130 315 234 327
Weighted Frequency 876 436 440 279 238 219 139 358 255 263
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which David Khan of the Alberta Liberal Party
party would you vote for? (first six responses Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party
randomized) Not Sure
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel
Notley (the order of the next five questions were
United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney randomized)
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel opinion of Rachel Notley?
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek Favourable opinion
Fildebrandt Unfavourable opinion
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Chagnon- Not sure
Greyeyes Not familiar with Rachel Notley
Another Party
Undecided Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Jason Kenney?
And which party are you leaning towards? Favourable opinion
(first six responses randomized - only asked of Unfavourable opinion
respondents who were undecided in previous Not sure
question) Not familiar with Jason Kenney
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel
Notley Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney opinion of David Khan?
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan Favourable opinion
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel Unfavourable opinion
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek Not sure
Fildebrandt Not familiar with David Khan
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Chagnon-
Greyeyes Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Another Party opinion of Stephen Mandel?
Undecided Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Did you watch, listen to, or follow tonight’s Not sure
Leaders’ Debate? (or as asked on April 5th: Not familiar with Stephen Mandel
Did you watch, listen to, or follow Thrursday’s
Leaders’ Debate?) What is your gender?
Yes Male
No Female

Regardless of which party you happen to What is your age group?

support, who do you think won tonight’s 18 to 34 years of age
Leaders’ Debate? (or as asked on April 35 to 49 years of age
5th: Did you watch, listen to, or follow 50 to 64 years of age
Thrursday’s Leaders’ Debate?) 65 years of age or older
(order of first four responses randomized)
Rachel Notley of the Alberta New Democratic
Party
Jason Kenney of the United Conservative Party
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on April 4th to April 5th,
2019 among a sample of 876 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta. The survey
was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
Alberta.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing and respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.31% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.49%, Females: +/- 4.91%,
18-34 age group: +/- 6.91%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.91%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.96%, 65+
age group: +/- 8.6%, Calgary +/- 5.52%, Edmonton, 6.41%, Rest of Alberta: +/- 5.42%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.